CNG HNG DN MN HC MN HC: XC XUT THNG K

THNG TIN TNG QUT V MN HC. 1. Tn mn hc : XC SUT - THNG K . Vi vai tr ng dng , mn hc XC SUT - THNG K Ton dnh cho SV Tin hc cn c trang b kin thc ng dng vo tnh ton l chnh. Vi yu cu chung o(, chng trnh XXTK cn c ging dy sao cho ph hp : cung cp y , n gin c h thng nhng kin thc v cch ng dng chng vo nhng bi ton, vn lin quan thc tin ca ngnh hc . Bi ging s c ging trong mt hc k. Sinh vin cn lm cc bi tp c ging vin ngh, nhm nh gi c kh nng tnh ton qua cc bi tp rn k nng p dng tnh ton . 2. Mc tiu yn cu ca mn hc: + Cung cp cho sinh vin cc kin thc ton XSTK. + Ap dng cc kin thc ton XSTKvo cc v d tnh ton bng s . + Sinh vin cn nm vng cc kin thc c ging dy , lm c cc bi tp v k nng p dng c cc cng thc , gii thut tnh ton trn cc bi ton bng s. Hiu bit cch tip cn v ng dng c vo cc bi ton ny trong mt s bi ton thc t . Ghi ch: Trc khi hc XSTK sinh vin c hc qua Tin Hc Cn Bn & TH Vn Phng trong c phm mm Microsoft Excel l phm mm chuyn dng trong lnh vc bng tnh in t. y cng l phn mm h tr rt c dng cho ngi lm cng tc thng k, do khi ging dy cn dnh mt s tit hng dn cho Sinh vin cch s dng phn mm ny vo vic :s dng cc hm trong Excel khi gii cc bi tp, tra cc bng T, F , 2 ... nhng chng tng ng. Nhm a dng nu c iu kin ging vin c th : + Hng dn cho sinh vin ci t/lp trnh mt s tin ch cho mn hc nh tnh gi tr cc hm mt , hm phn phi, trung binh mu, phng sai mu ... + H tr cho sinh vin cc phm mm chuyn dng khc nh Statistics, Statistic 5, SPSS,.... 3. S n v hc trnh : 4 4. Phn b thi gian : 60 : 00 : 00 5. Cc kin thc cn chun b trc: Ton Cao cp A1 + A2 . 6. Hnh thc ging dy : ging l thuyt trn lp (c s h tr ca thit b nghe nhn, nu c). 7.Ti liu tham kho : 1. Bi tp XSTK : ThS. Nguyn chnh Thng . 2. Gio trnh tm lc (cc trang Slide) : ThS. Nguyn chnh Thng . 3. B Chng Trnh GD HC B Gio Dc o To (1995). 4. L thuyt XS v Thng K TH - O.S Ivashes...NXB Gio Dc 1983.
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CNG CHI TIT

Phn I : Khi Nim & nh L C Bn ca LT Xc Sut .

S tit : 30 Chng I : Bin C Ngu nhin v Xc Sut . S tit : 15. Mc ch yu cu : Tm hiu cc khi nim, cng thc v tnh ton tt cc cng thc 0 nh l trong chng mc.
I. Khi nim v Gii Tch T Hp 1.1 Khi nim v tp hp php ton . 1.2 Qui tc m . 1.3 Gii tah t hp : Chnh hp , Hon v , T hp : nh ngha,cng thc tnh, v d . 1.4 Nh thc Newton - Tam gic Pascal. +Ti liu tham kho : 1. Bi tp XSTK : ThS. Nguyn chnh Thng . 2. Gio trnh tm lc (cc trang Slide) : ThS. Nguyn chnh Thng . II. Php th v cc loi bin c. Khi nim v php th. Bin c phn loi . III . Xc sut ca bin c. 3.1 . Khi nim v xc sut. 3.2 . nh ngha c in v xc sut: 3.3 . nh ngha thng k v xc sut: 3.4 . nh ngha hnh hc v xc sut : IV. Quan h gia cc bin c - i s cc bin c. 4.1 . Bin c tng ng (bng nhau). 4.2 .Tng ca hai bin c. 4.3. Bin c xung khc, nhm bin c y v xung khc tng i. 4.4. Bin c i lp-Nhm bin c c lp tng i,nhm bin c c lp ton phn. 4.5 . nh l cng xc sut. 4.6 .nh l nhn xc sut : Xc sut c iu kin . nh l nhn xc sut. Xc sut ca tng cc bin c khng xung khc v c lp ton phn . 4.7. Cng thc xc sut y - Cng thc Bayes . +Ti liu tham kho : 1. Bi tp XSTK : ThS. Nguyn chnh Thng . 2. Gio trnh tm lc (cc trang Slide) : ThS. Nguyn chnh Thng .

Chng II : i Lng Ngu Nhin v Qui Lut Phn Phi Xc Sut . S tit : 15 Mc ch yu cu : Tm hiu cc khi nim, cng thc v tnh ton tt cc cng thc v nh l trong chng mc.
I . nh ngha - Phn loi : ri rc v lin tc. II. Qui lut phn phi xc sut ca i lng ngu nhin. 2.1. i lng ngu nhin ri rc. 1. Bng phn phi xc sut :nh ngha v v d. 2. Hm phn phi xc sut :nh ngha , v d, cc tnh cht, ngha. 2.2. i lng ngu nhin lin tc. 1. Hm mt xc sut :nh ngha , v d, cc tnh cht, ngha. 2. Hm phn phi xc sut :nh ngha , v d, cc tnh cht, ngha. +Ti liu tham kho : 1. Bi tp XSTK : ThS. Nguyn chnh Thng . 2. Gio trnh tm lc (cc trang Slide) : ThS. Nguyn chnh Thng.

III Cc tham s dc trng ca i lng ngu nhin 3.1 K vng ton :nh ngha , tnh cht v ngha. 3.2 Phng sai : nh ngha , tnh cht v ngha 3.3 lch chun. 3.4 Mod ca LNN . 3.5 Median ca LNN. IV. Cc Qui Lut Phn Phi Xc Sut Thng Dng. A. i lng ngu nhin ri rc. 4.1 Lut Phn Phi Nh Thc B(n,p). 4.2 Lut Phn Phi POISSON 4.3 Lut Phn Phi Siu Bi. +Ti liu tham kho : 1. Bi tp XSTK : ThS. Nguyn chnh Thng . 2. Gio trnh tm lc (cc trang Slide) : ThS. Nguyn chnh Thng. B. i lng ngu nhin lin tc. . 4.5 Lut Phn Phi Chun nh ngha qui lut phn phi chun N( , ) - v d. Cc tnh cht ca hm mt ca LNN c phn phi chun. Cc qui tc tnh, cch tra bng hm Laplace, v d. Cc tham s c trng :k vng, phng sai... 4.6 Lut Phn Phi Khi bnh phng : nh ngha Cch tra bng, v d. 4.7 Qui Lut Student : nh ngha - Cch tra bng. +Ti liu tham kho : 1. Bi tp XSTK : ThS. Nguyn chnh Thng . 2. Gio trnh tm lc (cc trang Slide) : ThS. Nguyn chnh Thng. V. i lng ngu nhin nhiu chiu. 5.1 Khi nim v i lng ngu nhin nhiu chiu. 5.2 Bng phn phi xc sut ca i lng ngu nhin hai chiu. 5.2 Hm phn phi xc sut ca i lng ngu nhin hai chiu. 5.3 Hm mt xc sut ca i lng ngu nhin hai chiu. 5.4 Cc tham s c trng : k vng, phng sai... ca cc LNN thnh phn. 5.5 H s tng quan. 5.6 K vng ton c iu kin - Hm hi qui +Ti liu tham kho : 1. Bi tp XSTK : ThS. Nguyn chnh Thng . 2. Gio trnh tm lc (cc trang Slide) : ThS. Nguyn chnh Thng. VI. Qui lut phn phi xc sut ca hm cc LNN 6.1 Qui lut phn phi xc sut ca hm mt LNN . 6.2 Qui lut phn phi xc sut ca hm hai LNN . 6.3 Cc tham s c trng ca hm mt LNN. VII. nh l lut s ln. 7.1 Bt ng thc Tchebchev. 7.2 nh l Tchebchev Bernouilli. +Ti liu tham kho : 1. Bi tp XSTK : ThS. Nguyn chnh Thng . 2. Gio trnh tm lc (cc trang Slide) : ThS. Nguyn chnh Thng.

------------------------------Phn II : Thng K .
S tit : 30

Mc ch yu cu : Tm hiu cc khi nim, cng thc v tnh ton tt cc cng thc v nh l trong chng mc. Chng I : Mu Ngu Nhin - Tham S Mu.. S tit : 5
I.Tng th v mu. 1.1 Khi nim v tng th : Lc lng (kch thc ca tng th). Bng c cu tn sut. Trung bnh, phng sai, lch tiu chun ca tng th. 1.2 Mu - phng php chn mu. Khi nim v mu ngu nhin. Chn mu c han li - khng hon li. Kch thc mu. 1.3 Biu din mu : mu dng im - dng khong. II. Tham s mu. 2.1 i lng ngu nhin v qui lut phn phi gc. 2.2 Cc qui tc kim nh ( xp x tham s tng th ) v thng k. 2.3 Trung bnh mu: a). nh ngha - Tnh cht . b). Qui lut phn phi ca trung bnh mu. 2.5 Phng sai ca mu: a). nh ngha - Tnh cht . b). Qui lut phn phi xc sut ca phng sai mu. 2.6 Phng sai iu chnh ca mu . +Ti liu tham kho : 1. Bi tp XSTK : ThS. Nguyn chnh Thng . 2. Gio trnh tm lc (cc trang Slide) : ThS. Nguyn chnh Thng.

Chng II : L Thuyt c Lng . S tit : 10 Mc ch yu cu : Tm hiu cc khi nim, cng thc v tnh ton tt cc cng thc v nh l trong chng mc.
I. Khi nim v c lng: 1.1 nh ngha v c lng. c lng im 1.2 c lung khng chch - c lng vng 1.3 Khong tin cy - tin cy II. c lng trung bnh/K vng tng th. 2.1. Qui lut phn phi ca trung bnh mu khi tng th c phn phi chun. 2.2. Trung hp kch thc mu > 30 (phng sai bit /cha bit). 2.3. Trung hp kch thc mu < 30. (tng th c phn phi chun,phng sai bit /cha bit). III. c lung t l/xc sut trn tng th. 2.1. Qui lut phn phi ca t l mu. 2.2. Trung hp kch thc mu > 30 (v d). 2.3. Trung hp kch thc mu < 30.(v d) IV. c lung phng sai. +Ti liu tham kho : 1. Bi tp XSTK : ThS. Nguyn chnh Thng . 2. Gio trnh tm lc (cc trang Slide) : ThS. Nguyn chnh Thng.

Chng III : Kim nh Gi Thit Thng K. S tit : 10

Mc ch yu cu : Tm hiu cc khi nim, cng thc v tnh ton tt cc cng thc v nh l trong chng mc.
I. Khi nim bi ton kim nh gi thit thng k. Thit lp gi thit - gi thit i-chp nhn/bc b gi thit. Cc loi sai lm mc phi. Mc c ngha. Cch gii quyt. II. Kim nh gi thit v trung bnh. 2.1. Min chp nhn - min bc b - iu kin chp nhn. 2.2. Trung hp kch thc mu > 30. 2.3. Trung hp kch thc mu < 30. 2.4. So snh 2 trung bnh . Cho v d tng trng hp theo kch thc cc mu. III. Kim nh gi thit v t l . 2.1. Min chp nhn - min bc b - iu kin chp nhn. 2.2. Trung hp kch thc mu > 30 (v d). 2.3. Trung hp kch thc mu < 30.(v d) 2.4. So snh t l ca2 mu. Cho v d tng trng hp theo kch thc cc mu. IV. Kim nh gi thit v phng sai . +Ti liu tham kho : 1. Bi tp XSTK : ThS. Nguyn chnh Thng . 2. Gio trnh tm lc (cc trang Slide) : ThS. Nguyn chnh Thng.

Chng IV : Tng Quan & Hi Qui. S tit : 5 Mc ch yu cu : Tm hiu cc khi nim, cng thc v tnh ton tt cc cng thc v nh l trong chng mc.
I. Hai i lng ngu nhin v mi quan h. 1.1 t vn . 1.2 Cc dng ph thuc ca hai i lng - s tng quan. II. Mng tng quan v bng tng quan thc nghim. 2.1 Mng tng quan - bng tng quan. 2.2 Phn phi thc nghim - ng hi qui thc nghim. 2.3 Tnh tham s l t bng tng quan. III. c lng hm hi qui tuyn tnh.. 3.1 Cng thc tnh h s tng quan. Phng php bnh phng ti tiu. 3.2 Cng thc tnh h s ca hm hi qui tuyn tnh. +Ti liu tham kho : 1. Bi tp XSTK : ThS. Nguyn chnh Thng . 2. Gio trnh tm lc (cc trang Slide) : ThS. Nguyn chnh Thng.
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NH GI KT QU HC TP. i) . Da trn cc bi tp c ngh vi s hng dn ca ging vin sinh vin t xc nh kh nng tip thu ca mnh . ii). Ging vin nhn dng c k nng, mt mnh yu ca sinh vin qua cc bi tp v bi kim tra gia k. iii) Phng php nh gi tng kt : sinh vin c kim tra kin thc bng hnh thc lm bi tp t lun . 100%