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2011

2011

Vol.14, No.1

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A
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Taiwan Watch

2011

2012141

Taiwan Watch

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04

19

12

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20

28

Sarah DeWerdt

Danielle Nierenberg

Contents

02

45

38

46 M2011

nevit at everystockphoto

Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

iPhone 4
iPhone 5

BBC

Hortongrou at everystockphoto

Woodleywonderworks at everystockphoto

Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

70

2011

200

geography.about.com

101927100
201960
30199960201170

Center for Biological Diversity

2006Science

2048

70

1900

Chris Dolan

5
www.Marketcalls.in

1950

2006

64201074
Population Action International

195022%
201011

Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

1961-2007

4
Grist
Lisa Hymas

205

1961-2010

196150

5.650
601964

1976
3

yunchia

2009
16

2.120100.9
500.82019

7
302004

1.
2.
3.

60%

Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

==

20-29

22.17
9

10

1940-501960

1950-70

2005(World Economic Forum)


19974.67
20035.14
30-32

11

12

Philip
Cafaro

Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global


Human CapitalWolfgang Lutz
2040

13
20011.31.2
Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

14

15

Robert Engelman

16

Amy Lin

10

20111222

20091020Interview with Robert


Engelman and Madeline Weld, Quirks and Quarks radio
program, Oct. 29, 2011.
2

Current World Population, Matt Rosenberg at


geography.about.com, May 11, 2011.

2005Overpopulation: a key factor in species


extinction, Center for Biological Diversity, 2011.
3

Total Population of the Continents, http://www.


geohive.com/earth/pop_continent.aspx (UN Statistics,
2008). Why Population Matters report, Population
Action International, 2011. Ecological Footprint
Atlas 2009 report, Global Footprint Network, Nov
24, 2009. Humanity Ecological Footprint 19672007 data and chart, Earth Policy Institute (given by
Global Footprint Network).
5

I Am the Population Problem, Lisa Hymas at


Grist.org, Aug 25, 2011.

2010

10320104
434200911

http://
www2.pccu.edu.tw/CRUCTE/Hs-geography/html/
humangeog_4_2.htm2012/1/18
6399

20052005
20051226
2006
74
12

20111115

20096
13

Seeking a Population Plateau, William Ryerson, New


York Times Fewer Babies, for Better or Worse
debate, Oct 16, 2011. Focus on Education, Wolfgang
Lutz, New York Times Fewer Babies, for Better or
Worse debate, Oct 16, 2011.
20103
14

Seven Billion People: Every Conversation About


Numbers Starts with Human Rights, Suzanne Ehlers,
RH Reality Check, Oct 26, 2011. One-Child Policy,
Wikipedia, last viewed on Jan 19, 2012.

Global Loss of Biodiversity Harming Ocean


Bounty, Erik Stokstad, Science, Vol. 314, Nov. 3,
2006. The Story of Stuff film, Annie Leonard,
2007. 2005
332005 Population Growth and
Deforestation Rates by Continent Chart, Population
Vs Global Warming and charts, Nov. 10, 2010.

11

15

201112
22I Don't Want Children! Am I A Freak?! Why
Won't Everyone Leave Me ALONE?!, Gala Darling,
April 20, 2011.
2011225
16

2010
2010

20232010
817Low Fertility Not Politically Sustainable,
Population Reference Bureau, August/September, 2001.

255200810
8


10320104

200712

10


2006430
!20111223

Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

11

Amy Lin

12

2011103170

Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

Amy Lin

13



kidd

14

()

kidd

()
NALCJapan

Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

15

() Active Life ClubNPO

NALC1167

NPO

40126

1,000

NALC

500

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NPO

kidd

()

http://

nalc.jp/20111218

17

()

Amy Lin

Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

18

()

()

19

Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

Sarah DeWerdt

20

Sahel
1970Tigray

1970
1980
1980

WHO2020
302000excess
deaths2

http://www.trhb.gov.et/profiles/
malaria03.htm

http://www.who.int/quantifying_ehimpacts/global/en/dalys.pdf http://ehp03.niehs.nih.gov/article/
fetchArticle.action?articleURI=info:doi/10.1289/ehp.1002233

Jonathan Patz

Kristie Ebi

Center for Sustainability and the Global

IPCC

EnvironmentWHO

WHO

IPCC1988

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tundra#Relationship_with_global_warming
Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

21

22

2060

Martin ParryIPCC

2~3

Goddard Institute for Space

StudiesCynthia

Rosenzweig

20808

90
120

Zignasso

3,000

USAID

"Climate change and world food security: A


new assessment"

"Smallholders adaptation to climate change


in Mali"


Sierra
Parima
Yanomami

Paul Epstein

London School of Hygiene


and Tropical Medicine
Andrew Haines

45%

60%

Duane

Gubler

Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

23

82000

24

20%
30%
3%
5
100200

Punjab

199798
Lima
5

200023http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_
Mozambique_ood

-El Nio-Southern OscillationENSO


wikipedia

20058Gulf Coast
10

Peter Stott
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research
200311
15008
12

2003

25

113
IPCC
IPCC18~59
IPCC

10

Hurricane
Katrina20058

2005825
8
29
233

12
wikipedia
11

2003

4
wikipedia
12

"Human contribution to the


European heatwave of 2003"

2004

Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012


Tuvalu

1,8601,300350330

IPCC2080
13

26

Battelle Memorial Institute


Gerry Stokes

14

Kaya15Yoichi Kaya

= x x x
= (GDP) /
=
=

CO2 = x

GDP

GDP

CO2

13

"World population to 2300"

14

Princlple of least astonishment


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Principle_of_least_astonishment

15

KayaYoichi Kaya
wikipedia

20
4
12

200629
670

20
......

21

Sarah DeWerdt
20320075/6
Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

27


Danielle Nierenberg

7,60024

200464

28

406

2050

31960

89

10-15

2050

1960

1971

Paul Ehrlich

2900

60,000,000,000,000,000
60

702%
1.3%

United

Nations Population Division; UNPD

10-1912

20502002

2050

282

1960

18%1750

31%

8,000

205048

106

Nature
2003

2050

5090

1970

Uraim

Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

29

UN's Millennium Summit

one-

person household

two-person home17

30

World Bank
8

19987

15

18

25

15-19
20

90

35,000

1992

2025

Rio Earth Summit1994

Cairo population conference


1995Beijing women's
conference2000

1,8002003

87,600
11,500

Alan Guttmacher Institute

2,300
2,200
140

505,000

UN Population Fund; UNFPA


3,400
Global Gag Rule 1

70

142,00053,000

200331

26
117

Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

31

2005
6130
Thoraya
Obaid8,000
1
30

1,000

32

90
3,27013.1%

200428,000

2050

17

Danielle NierenbergWorldwatchCorrecting
Gender Myopia: Gender Equity, Women's Welfare, and the Environment161
Mia MacDonald
17520049/10

Steve Evans at everystockphoto

Middle
East

AlMaha

( :

20052011

Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

33

2010

34

5060

4241

(
: http://maps.infobees.com/
middleeast.htm )


() 197311

() 2002324

( : Is
the Dead Sea Dying
at JewishJournal.
com)

1951

20095

1964

JRSP, Jordan Red Sea Project

100

Jebel Ali

( "Thirsty? How 'bout a cool, refreshing cup of


seawater" at USGS)

Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

35

36

seas)

70%

sweet water

springs

"sweet water

2008

Masdar

( "two

200811

2011
11

( : "The Right to Water" http://hcer.


info/en/?p=308 )

80

1. Alexandra Barton. Water in Crisis Middle East.


The Water Project. 2011/12. 2012/1/26. <http://
thewaterproject.org/water-in-crisis-middle-east.php>
2. Max Boath. Renewable Energy, Sustainable
Development In The Middle East. GreenandSave.com.
2009/07/14. 2012/1/26. <http://www.greenandsave.
com/green_news/green_business/renewable_energy_
sustainable_development_in_the_middle_east>
3. Duncan Clark. Water scarcity in Africa and the
Middle East: get the data. The Guardian. 2011/06/28.
2012/1/26. <http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/

4 . Em il y Sohn. A DRY DEAD SEA B EFOR E


BIBLICAL TIMES. Discovery News. 2011/12/08.
2012/1/26. <http://news.discovery.com/earth/dead-seabiblical-events-111208.html>
5. Emily Sohn. RESURRECTING THE DEAD SEA.
Discovery News. 2011/05/25. 2012/1/26. <http://news.
discovery.com/earth/dead-sea-water-red-sea-110525.
html>
6. Hana Namrouqa. Winning bidder of Red Sea project
expected to be announced in March. Jordan Times.
2012/1/26. 2012/1/26. <http://jordantimes.com/
winning-bidder-of-red-sea-project-expected-to-beannounced-in-march>
7. MENAFN. Jordan Times. Jordan- Red-Dead project
could damage archaeological sites- report. 2012/1/03.
2012/1/26. <http://www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_
s.asp?storyid=1093469005>
8. CW Staff. Jordan Red Sea Project to begin tendering
process. constructionweekonline.com. 2011/12/22.
2012/1/26. <http://www.constructionweekonline.
com/article-15087-jordan-red-sea-project-to-begintendering-process/>
9. Masdar City. <http://www.masdarcity.ae/en/>
10. Sustainable Development- Water Access In
The Middle East: Desalination And Sustainable
Development. Justmeans. 2010/07/11. 2012/1/26. <
<http://www.justmeans.com/Water-Access-in-MiddleEast-Desalination-Sustainable-Development/22162.
html>
11. The Jordan River: Declining, Disappearing,
Endangered. Revolve. 2011/08/23. 2012/1/26. <http://
www.revolve-magazine.com/2011/08/23/jordan-riverendangered/>
12. Jordan River. Wikipedia. 2012/1/18. 2012/1/26.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jordan_River>
13. Middle East. Wikipedia. 2012/1/11. 2012/1/26.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_east>
14. Arab Spring. Wikipedia. 2012/01/25. 2012/1/26.
<http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arab_spring>
15. Wikipedia. Dead Sea. 2012/1/24. 2012/1/26. <http://
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_sea>
16. Water profile of Bahrain. The Encyclopedia of
Earth. 2007/12/04. 2012/1/26. < http://www.eoearth.
org/article/Water_prole_of_Bahrain>
17. .
. 2004/02/10. 2012/01/26. <http://big5.huaxia.com/
js/zbjq/00173839.html>

Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

datablog/2011/jun/28/water-scarcity-africa-middleeast>

37

yunchia

38

2010

39

87.5

Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

2010

40

201169

2011

20111

Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

41

42

2011226

99

Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

43

2012

201165

44


144

179

370

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300

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15,603
318
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117

Muller, Peter O. (January 2000). "Physiologic Population Density for Each of the World's States, Year 2000" (DOC). University of
MissouriSt. Louis. Retrieved 2011-04-15. Wikipedia. Last viewd on Feb 9, 2012.

436

78

()

Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

45

43

1,551

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Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

47

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2011

Joseph Rowntree

FoundationOpen Society Foundation

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Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

49

206

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Guardian/LSE, p165

Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

Keith

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Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

53

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Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

55

The Guardian/

LSE

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Manual

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p54

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Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

57

96

Twitter2,000

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p53

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Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

2012Cameron

59

May

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copy cats

2~4

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tough love and tougher policing
12

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Taiwan Watch Vol.14, No.1 / Spring, 2012

61

262

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282553
123,700
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Tougher Policing


BBMTahrir

1.TheGuardianGuardian/LSE, Dec
2011,Reading the Riots. http://www.
guardian.co.uk/info/2011/dec/15/reading-the-riotsebook?INTCMP=SRCH
2. Riots Communities and Victims PanelThe
Panel, Nov 2011, 5 Days in August - a
interim report on the 2011 English Riots.. http://
www.5daysinaugust.co.uk/PDF/interactive/InterimReport-UK-Riots/index.html
3. House of Commons, Home Affairs CommitteeThe
Parliament,Dec 2011, Policing Large Scale
Disorder: Lesson From the Disturbances of August
2011. http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/
cm201012/cmselect/cmhaff/1456/1456i.pdf
4. National Centre for Social ResearchNatcen, Nov
2011,The August Riots in England: Understand
the Involvement of young people. http://www.
natcen.ac.uk/media/769712/the%20august%20
riots%20in%20england%20web.pdf
5. The Children's Society, Nov 2011,Behind the
Riots: Finding of a survey into children's and
adult's view of 2011 English Riots.http://www.
childrenssociety.org.uk/sites/default/les/tcs/the_
childrens_society_riots_report.pdf
6. Ministry of JusticeMOJ,Statistical bulletin
on the public disorder of 6th to 9th August 2011October update. http://www.justice.gov.uk/
downloads/publications/statistics-and-data/mojstats/
august-public-disorder-stats-bulletin.pdf

Downing Street

7. Inspecting Policing in the public interestHMIC,


Dec 2011,The rules of engagementA review
of the August 2011 disordershttp://www.hmic.
gov.uk/media/a-review-of-the-august-2011disorders-20111220.pdf

8. http://www.runnymedetrust.org/

9. http://www.frankeld.com/campaigns/poverty-andlife-changes.aspx

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Tel: 02-29357651, Fax: 02-29356977
116


2012
Taiwan Watch Vol.14 No.1, Spring, 2012

19247841

http://www.taiwanwatch.org.tw

Emailtwwatch@ms31.hinet.net
116774105101
(02)2935-7651

(02)2935-6977

150

19992, 5, 8, 11

1170

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