Always wanted to tackle the bookies on a level playing field?

Now you can, with Soccerwidow's comprehensive betting course, a unique 69-page tutorial compiled by
professional statisticians describing how to calculate percentages, probabilities and odds to identify the 'value'
of odds offered by bookmakers and/or betting exchanges enabling you to find a mathematical edge: In other
words, 'sharp betting'. The example used is the under/over 'X' goals market in the German Bundesliga, but the
methods of analysis are easily transferrable to any bet type, in any sport.
So, say the true (zero) odds for any given Bayern Munich home game under 4.5 goals are 1.31 and the
market odds for the next match are showing a price of 1.23. Financially speaking, should this be a back bet or
a lay? What is the probability that this bet will win? How much value does this bet contain? What is the
potential income of this investment in the long-term?
If you can answer the above questions off the top of your head then this course is probably too basic for you,
but if you are already confused and perhaps also count yourself in the group of people who lose more money
than they win, then this course is for you. It will help you to understand odds calculation and how to gain the
mathematical edge when betting. Betting for long-term profit then becomes nothing more than a numbers
game.
The course contains a statistical-mathematical tool developed from financial shares analysis and explains not
only odds calculation, but also gives you a broader understanding of how market odds are compiled and
different angles on looking for that golden mathematical advantage. The reader will learn in detail how to
analyse a betting market and gain confidence to ultimately develop his/her own successful betting strategy.
At the end of the course, betting tables are presented for the nine German Bundesliga 1 teams playing in the
2011-2012 competition, who have also played in the previous five seasons. These will allow accurate
evaluations of the entire over/under X goals market for 76.5% of all Bundesliga 1 games throughout 20112012. The reader will then learn how to incorporate the results from 2011-2012 into fresh tables for the 20122013 season, and so on. In this fashion, the course is timeless.
Why use the Bundesliga 1 as an example?
The Bundesliga 1 displays almost unfaltering consistency in its goals events, year after year. For this reason, it
is a hugely attractive league for investors and gamblers alike.
As always from Soccerwidow, the course provides sound mathematical advice and many people have already
purchased this course, with only positive feedback received. We are sure that it will be an invaluable addition
to the knowledge base of any bettor, enhancing the users chances of succeeding knowing exactly what the
mathematical ingredients are for making regular profits from betting.
Buy now with the confidence of knowing that full support is available from the Soccerwidow team should
anything in the course require further explanation.
Thanks for your time and as always, good luck!
Soccerwidow
03/2012

Buy now: Soccerwidows Betting Course: Betting on Under / Over X Goals

The next few pages are a taster of the course itself

Betting on Over/Under X Goals

Professional betting course with betting tables for
German Bundesliga 1
CONTENTS

PAGE

Section A: Basic Knowledge ....................................................................................................................................... 4

Probabilities, odds, value, profit and loss calculation ................................................................................................ 4
1.

Calculation of the expected market prices ................................................................................................... 4

1.1.

Goals in the Bundesliga ....................................................................................................................... 4

1.2.

Exercises in calculating percentages: ................................................................................................. 5

1.3.

Expected odds for the Bundesliga ....................................................................................................... 6

1.4.

Exercises in calculating probability and odds...................................................................................... 8

2.

Evaluation of individual teams...................................................................................................................... 9

2.1.

Exercises in interpreting graphs: ...................................................................................................... 11

2.2.

Computing the zero (true) odds ...................................................................................................... 12

2.3.

How is value calculated? ................................................................................................................ 14

2.4.

Exercises in calculating probabilities, odds, value, profit and loss .................................................. 17

Section B: Cluster groups and betting tables ...........................................................................................................19

3.

Building cluster groups ............................................................................................................................... 19

3.1.

What are cluster groups?.................................................................................................................. 20

3.2.

Cluster grouping according to the relative strength of opposing teams .......................................... 21

3.3.

Exercises in cluster group building ................................................................................................... 23

4.

Betting Tables Under/Over X Goals .......................................................................................................... 24

4.1.

How to read and understand the betting tables .............................................................................. 24

4.2.

Exercises in calculating and forecasting market odds ..................................................................... 26

4.3.

Finding potential value bets in the betting tables ............................................................................ 27

4.4.

Exercises with cluster groups and identifying bets .......................................................................... 32

Answers to the exercises .......................................................................................................................................... 41

Risks when betting using statistical prognoses ....................................................................................................... 51
Legal.......................................................................................................................................................................... 51
Attachments: betting tables......................................................................................................................................51

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TABLES & GRAPHS

PAGE

Table 1: 2006-2011 Bundesliga goals and distribution ............................................................................................ 4

Table 2: 2006-2011 Bundesliga average deviation (variance) of goals from expectation ....................................... 5
Table 3: Calculation of expected average odds for 2006-2011 Bundesliga matches .............................................. 6
Table 4: Betfair opening odds for the match Hoffenheim vs. Dortmund (13.8.2011) .............................................. 7
Table 5: 2006-2011 Bundesliga goal distribution ..................................................................................................... 9
Table 6: 2006-2011 Bundesliga distribution of under X goals ................................................................................ 9
Table 7: Goal distribution (home matches only) for all teams present in the Bundesliga during 2006-2011 ....... 10
Table 8: Under X goals pattern for Dortmund away matches during 2006-2011 ................................................ 10
Table 9: Comparison of under X goals: Dortmund home and away matches during 2006-2011 ........................ 11
Table 10: Dortmund 2006-2011 goal distribution.................................................................................................. 12
Table 11: Values of the odds available in the market for the match Hoffenheim vs. Dortmund (13.8.2011) ...... 13
Table 12: Determination of potential profit/loss (P/L) in respect of over/under X goals betting for Dortmund
away matches ......................................................................................................................................................... 15
Table 13: Distribution of over X goals: Bundesliga 2006-2011 ............................................................................ 19
Table 14: Ladbrokes odds for the Bundesliga matches on 13 and 14.8.2011 ..................................................... 21
Table 15: Cluster group sort according to the LBH/LBA quotient ........................................................................... 22
Table 16: Ladbrokes odds for the Bundesliga matches during 19-21.8.2011 ...................................................... 23
Table 17: Probabilities and odds for Wolfsburg home matches ............................................................................. 25
Table 18: Probabilities and odds for Bayern Munich away matches ...................................................................... 25
Table 19: Wolfsburg vs. Bayern Munich over/under 1.5 goals: Betfair odds ......................................................... 25
Table 20: Wolfsburg vs. Bayern Munich over/under 3.5 goals: Betfair odds ......................................................... 25
Table 21: Wolfsburg vs. Bayern Munich over/under X goals: Betfair odds ........................................................... 26
Table 22: Bayer Leverkusen vs. Werder Bremen over/under X goals: Betfair odds ............................................. 27
Table 23: Betting table for Wolfsburg home matches............................................................................................. 28
Table 24: Betting table for Bayern Munich away matches...................................................................................... 29
Table 25: Betfair odds for over/under 4.5 goals: Wolfsburg vs. Bayern Munich (13.8.2011) ............................... 29
Table 26: Betfair opening prices for all matches during 13-14.8.2011 ................................................................. 33
Table 27: Hoffenheim vs. Dortmund (13.8.2011): Betfair odds ............................................................................. 34
Table 28: Wolfsburg vs. Bayern Munich (13.8.2011): Betfair odds ....................................................................... 35
Table 29: Moenchengladbach vs. Stuttgart (13.8.2011): Betfair odds .................................................................. 35
Table 30: Nrnberg vs. Hannover (13.8.2011): Betfair odds ................................................................................. 36
Table 31: Hamburg vs. Hertha Berlin (13.8.2011): Betfair odds............................................................................ 37
Table 32: Bayer Leverkusen vs. Werder Bremen (14.8.2011): Betfair odds.......................................................... 38
Table 33: Schalke vs. FC Cologne (13.8.2011): Betfair odds ................................................................................. 39
Table 34: Bundesliga 2006-2011 goals deviations and average ........................................................................... 41
Table 35: Ladbrokes odds for 19 - 21.08.2011 with calculated probabilities ....................................................... 44
Table 36: Calculated odds in comparison to Betfairs prices.................................................................................. 45
Table 37: Hoffenheim vs. Dortmund (13.8.2011): complete calculation ............................................................... 46
Table 38: Wolfsburg vs. Bayern Munich (13.8.2011): complete calculation ......................................................... 47
Table 39: Moenchengladbach vs. Stuttgart (13.8.2011): complete calculation .................................................... 47
Table 40: Nrnberg vs. Hannover (13.8.2011): complete calculation ................................................................... 48
Table 41: Hamburg vs. Hertha Berlin (13.8.2011): complete calculation .............................................................. 48
Table 42: Bayer Leverkusen vs. Werder Bremen (14.8.2011): complete calculation ............................................ 49
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Table 43: Schalke vs. FC Cologne (13.8.2011): complete calculation ..................................................................... 49

Table 44: Comparison of two strategies:..................................................................................................................... 50

This is a taster of Soccerwidows betting course

Betting on Over/Under X Goals

The complete course can be purchased here:

www.soccerwidow.com

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Section A: Basic Knowledge

Probabilities, odds, value, profit and loss calculation
1. Calculation of the expected market prices
1.1.

Goals in the Bundesliga

Odds compilation, probabilities and statistics has much to do with simple counting and the first table below
shows the frequency of goal events in the Bundesliga over the last five years. For example, in 2006-07 there
were 68 matches with exactly 3 goals, et cetera:

Table 1: 2006-2011 Bundesliga goals and distribution

I strongly recommend the reader acquires a full understanding of this table until the ability to reconstruct it
becomes second-nature. With many of the exercises contained in this article, the length of time they will take to
master and the level of knowledge gained from them will depend upon combined Excel and mathematical skills.
This first table compilation task would perhaps take an Excel expert up to two hours to perform.

Practice 1:
Download the historical data from www.football-data.co.uk (blue links to each season in the middle of the page)
and using Excel count the number of total goal events per season (2006-07 to 2010-11) in order to replicate
Table 1 above.
Soccerwidow.com isnt affiliated in any way to Football-data.co.uk but it is an invaluable resource site.

Calculation of the percentage of games with exactly two goals:

356 (total number of games with exactly two goals) divided by 1,530 (total number of matches over five
seasons) = 0.2327 (rounded-up) or 23.27%
Or, in other words, 1,530 matches multiplied by 23.27% = 356

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Section B: Cluster groups and betting tables

3. Building cluster groups
As already discussed, the German Bundesliga has a fantastically regular pattern to its goal events, which makes
betting on this league very appealing:

Table 13: Distribution of over X goals: Bundesliga 2006-2011

The above graph clearly shows that the results in the Bundesliga are very formulaic due to the fact that the
curves for each year nearly all follow the same path. This is far too improbable to be a coincidence and the
results should surely be capable of being harnessed and exploited by a formula.
I shall not touch on the subject of formulae here as the topic is way outside the realms of this course but suffice
to say the graph clearly shows it is possible to perform accurate statistical prognoses to provide clear and
reliable trends, which is good news for investors and gamblers alike.
Despite seeing graphs like this on a regular basis for a whole multitude of different football betting events in
various European leagues, it never ceases to amaze me how many times the curves follow a similar, regular
pattern.

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