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12.14 Power of Analysiv-of Variance Tests 550 Table 13.18: Expected Mean Squares for a Latin Square Design Source of Degrees of | Mean _ Expected moan squs squares Modell Model IT variation Rows a Columns at Treatments or a Bor Gyr) # Total Ses and 97, respectively. The derivation of the expected mean squares for a model II Latin equare design i straightforward and, for comparison, we presont them along with those for a model I experiment in Table 13.18 “Tests of hypotheses concerning the various variance comporents are made by computing the ratios of appropriate imean squares as indicated in Table 13.18, and comparing with corresponcling fvalics from Table A.6. 13.14 Power of Analysis-of-Variance Tests As we indicated earlier, the research worker Is often plagued by the problem of not knowing how large @ sermple to choose. In planning a one-factor completely randomized design with n observations per treatment, the main objective is to test ‘the hypothesis of equality of treatment means, ; Hy: 04 = 09 =---04 =, Hy: At least one of the ay’s is not equal to zero. i (Gib ebieas, lnowerar; the expe aionball error rectoacs Gao Inns thot ts tek E procedure will be insensitive to actual differences among the b treatment means. Tn Sectan 12.3 the expected values of the mean squares for the one-way model are given by ‘ac SSA 2 BY $2) 5 (SSE B53) -2 (4) -o+ 2, a0) - 2 (2% ,) ‘Thus, for a given deviation from the null hypothesis Ho, as measured by Ba f) large values of ¢? decrease the chance of obtsining a value f = of/s? that is in ‘the critical region for the test. ‘The sensitivity of the test describes the ability of ‘the procedure to detect differences in the population means and is measured by the power of the test (sce Section 10.2), which is merely 1, where 9 Is the az ae — 560 Chapter 18 One-Facter Experiments: General probability of accepting a false hypothesis. We can interpret the power of our analysisof-variance tests, then, as the probability that the Ftatistic is in the critical region when, in fact, the mull hypothesis ic falso and the treatment moans do differ. For the one-way analysis-of-variance test, the power, 1 — 8, is -9=P [E> fin ea wee is tu] oe ig > false) when S08 , The eran fa, 2) of coure, the uppor-ialed etial point of the Pasteibution with vy and vp degrees of freedom. For given values of Z 2/(k 1) and o?, the power can be increased by using # larger sample size 'n The problem becomes one of designing the experiment with a value of so that the power requirements ture met, For example, we might require that for specific values of 2 o} #0 and 22, the hypothesis be rejected with probability 0.9. When the power of the test is low, it severely limits the scope of the inferences that can be drown from the | experimental data, Fixed Effects Case Jn the analysis of variance the power depends on the distribution of the Fratio uncer the alternative kypothesis that the treatment means difler. ‘Therefore, in the case of the one-way fixed effects model, we require the distribution of $3/5* when, in fact, Of course, when the null hypothesis is true, a; = 0 for i = 1,2,...,k, and the statistic follows the F.distribution with k —1 and N — ke degrost of freedom. If ¥ a 40, the ratio follows a noncentral Feds ution. ‘The basic random variable of the noncentral Fis denoted by F’, Let f.(vs,v2,2) be a value of F' with parameters v1, t2, and . The parameters v1 and 1s of the istribution are the degrees of freedom associated with S? and S?, respectively and ) is called the noncentrality parameter. When \= 0, the nonceutral F simply reduces to the ordinary Fidistribution with v and v, degrees of freedom. For the fixed offects, one-way analysis of variance with sample sizes m,, 72...» ‘we define - aa Doma? a 18.14 Power of Analysis-of Variance Tests 561 If we have tables of the noncentral F at our disposal, the power for detecting a particular alternative is obtained by evaluating the following probability: 1s Pf» s-13-» om = PUP! > fal 1,.N 8). Although the noncentral F is normally defined in terme of 2, its more convenient, for purposes of tabulation, to work with 20. Table A.16 shows graphs of the power of the analysis of variance es a function of @ for various values of v1, v2, aud the significance level a. ‘These power charts can be used not only for the fixed effects models discussed in this chapter, but also for the multifactor models of Chapter 14. It remains now to give a procedure whereby the noncentrality parameter , and thus ¢, can be found for these fixed effects cases. ‘The noaceatrality parameter \ can be writien in terms of the expected values of the numerator moan square of the F-ratio in the analysis of variance. We have and thus Expressions for \ and ¢ for the one-way model, the randomized complete block design, and the Latin square design are shown in Table 13.19. ‘Table 15.19: Noncentrality Parameter A and ¢* for Fixed Bifects Model ‘One-way Randomized Is Classification Complete Block Square EB bhet hed od Og Lod be aL? Note from Table A.16 that for given values of vy and t2, the power of the test increases with increasing valnes of ¢. ‘The value of A depends, of course, on 02, and in a practical problem one may often need to substitute the mean square error as en estimate in determining @.