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Optical Communications in 2025

by E.Desurvire
ALCATEL

II Workshop Cincia e Tecnologia em Comunicaes pticas. Campinas, Brazil, November 2005

About long-term technology predictions


Predicting long-term technology performance is a risky business !
Well-informed people know it is impossible to transmit the voice over wires and that were it possible to do so, the thing would be of no practical value
Boston Post Editorial, 1865

One day there will be a telephone in every major city in the USA
A.G.Bell, c.1880

I think there is a world market for as many as 5 computers


T.J.Watson, head of IBM,1943

There is no need for any individual to have a computer in their home.


K.Olsen, President of Digital Equipment, 1977

640K [of PC memory] ought to be enough for anybody.


Bill Gates, 1981

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Outline

Introduction: a connected world Some tools to probe the future: Market


> Internet traffic > installed-fiber > FTTP-PON

Technology
> capacity X distance (Moore) > fiber bandwidth > channel capacity (Shannon)

Conclusion

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A connected world (1/2)


FT TP

N PO B HF C FTTH

VD SL

N GPO
last mile

FITL

NY Broadway 1890
Source: http://www.uh.edu/engines/epi1640.htm
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NY Broadway 1910

NY Broadway 2025 ?

A connected world (2/2)

Number of bandwidth providers

Number of bandwidth providers

From today to 2025, the main continental traffic routes to remain unchanged But P2P traffic intensity to increase orders of magnitude Optical networks to become more geographically pervasive with proliferation of local L2-L3 DXC/OXC/IProuters ..

Source: Primetrica, 2004 / www.telegeography.com


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Traffic segmentation by client (as projected from 2000)


1000000 100000 10000

1 Pbit/s

voice

8%/Y

transaction data 8%/Y internet 157%/Y total 157%/Y


actual 2005

Gbit/s

1000 100 10 1 1996

1 Tbit/s

115%/Y

1 Gbit/s
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

115%/Y from actual 2005 = 3.25 Exabit/s in 2025.. (1Ebit/s=103Pbit/s=106 Tbit/s)

Source Corning International Traffic Model / LIGHTWAVE July 2000, see http://www.corning.com/docs/opticalfiber/r3461.pdf
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Internet traffic growth and the Atlantic (1/2)


Aggregate internet traffic (international average) is growing 115% annually (doubling every 0.90y/10.8mo)* Asia 434% Atlantic 110% Pacific 119% Europe 82% Atlantic 2003-2004
5 4 3 2 1 0 2003

Atlantic IP traffic and installed capacity (Tbit/s)

installed peak average

So far, the installed capacity (eg. Atlantic) provides sufficient (x2) margin to satisfy needs up to 2007 With current submarine-cable technology, a single 5Tbit/s protected-traffic system can fully handle such a need But the situation will be very different a few years from now.. !!

2004

2005

2006

2007

*Data source: www.telegeography.com

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Internet traffic growth and the Atlantic (2/2)


Assume the installed capacity ( ) to grow only at a 20%/year rate

120
Atlantic IP traffic and installed capacity (Tbit/s)

80 60 40 20 0 2005

115% 25%

20 %

100

installed peak average

50%

The scenarios of 50-115% internet traffic growth are catastrophic in a 3.5-7 years horizon ! A 25%-only Internet traffic growth should make it >>> But is it a scenario we can believe for the next 20 years ?

2010

2015

2020

2025

catastrophic World Wide Wait

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Global internet fiber routes with 5Gbit/s minimum


(status mid-2004)

504.5 Gbit/s

181.4Gbit/s 66.3Gbit/s

2004 data source: www.telegeography.com


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Lit submarine-cable capacity by Route (1999-2006)


3,5 Atlantic 3,0 Pacific intra-Asia US-LatAm Eu-Africa-Asia

Capacity (Tbit/s)

2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

Data source: www.telegeography.com


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Lit submarine-cable capacity by Route (2005-2025)


Assuming a conservative
100 90 80 Atlantic Pacific

20% yearly growth (doubling every 3.8y/45.6m) :

Capacity (Tbit/s)

intra-Asia US-LatAm Eu-Africa-Asia

70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2005

38-fold
increase from 2005 traffic

2010

2015

2020

2025

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Global internet fiber routes: 2004 to 2025

2004

2025

20% yearly growth

0.5 Tbit/s

95 Tbit/s

0.18 Tbit/s

47 Tbit/s

0.066 Tbit/s

25 Tbit/s

ULH performance roadmap (2025) : 50-100Tbit/s per fiber pair


2004 data source: www.telegeography.com
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Installed-fiber indicator (1996-2007)


2000 bubble, before & after : U.S. fiber/cable markets will not return to past
growth rates, and quantities will remain below the peak of 2000 through the decade *
100

Million fiber-km / year

World total
80 60 40 20 0 1995

US

9%

10 Mkm/y = 317 m/s > csound !

recovery 17%

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

bubble pops
* and 1997-2007 data:
KMI Research, 2002

fiber glut

back to 2-digits growth (US)

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Installed fiber, scenarios through 2025


2007-2025: (conservatively) assume
Millions fiber-km / year
400 World total 300 US ROW 200

+20% YoY growth for US +10% YoY growth for RoW

Equal markets in 2019 : 2 times 2000 level !


Driving factors:
> US:
- primarily: Atlantic/Pacific links + backbone infrastructure - secondarily: deployment of FTTx/PON = low-cost BB optical solutions for E&R

100

> Rest of the World:


- primarily: ubiquitous infrastructure deployment+ core/metro/access - secondarily: undersea

0 1995

2000 2005

2010 2015

2020 2025

2020-2025: market saturation or second bubble ?


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FTTPremise-xPON deployment indicator (1/3)


FTTP-BPON/EPON subscription fees to become competitive over xDSL with 100M-1Gbit/s symmetric offer.. 2004-2010: aggressive FTTP roll-outs in Japan (NTT, KDDI..) and US (Verizon, SBC..), to be followed (more slowly?) by EU-25 Difficulties to estimate long-term growth: - house passed is not subscriber (factor 3 to 4 overestimate) - 2005-2015: FTTx service adoption to remain well below xDSL (1040Mbit/s), 5% in 2009* But new enterprise/residential/ private services to appear in 2010-2025 and massive deployment at end-user cost similar to xDSL may boost FTTx adoption
* source: RHK, sept. 2004
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FTTPremise-xPON deployment indicator (2/3)


Test case: combine predictions till 2010 concerning - EU-25* 80 - Japan (NTT)** 70 - US (SBC+Verizon)***
Eu-25 US Total
Homes passed (millions)

23%/Y

Yields 70M home passed in 2010, or 17-23M subscribers New installed fiber : 245,000 km
(3.5m/home)****

60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2002

Japan

Combined 2010 traffic (100Mbit/s @50%) : 425-575Tbit/s

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

Sources: *Yankee Group, sept. 2004; **FTTH Council, 2004; *** Press/announcements; **** =38,8000 miles /18 million homes
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FTTPremise-xPON deployment indicator (3/3)


Worlwide FTTP deployment: assume steady growth (23-15-10%/Y) from 2010 to 2025
10000

Homes passed (Millions)

Homes passed : 1.52 Billion (19%) 555 Million (7%) 285 Million (3%)
(% of 2025 world population*)

1,520
1000

23%/Y
100

New fiber installed (max): 5.32 Mkm Total 2025 traffic (max):
(100Mbit/s @50%)

10

15%/Y 10%/Y

555 285

19-25 Pbit/s

1 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

* ie: 8 billions, see World population estimate 1950-2050, http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/world.html


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The capacity-distance view


Optical Moores law : 30 years after

Capacity x distance (bit.km/s)

1000 100 10 1/1000 100 10 1/1000 100 10 1/1000 100 74

? 10 every 4 years

PETA
Raman FEC (>1999) DM, C+L WDM EDFA coherent 1.5m DSF 1.3m SMF 0.8 m MMF 82 86 90 94 98 02

TERA GIGA

108

MEGA
78 06

J.Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2004


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year

The optical Moores Law / are we sure ?


CxD trend of 10-fold increase every 4 years :

(1/2)

C? D ? 5.178 ? 2
year
2005

Y ? 2000 1.053

Pbit .km/ s
2013 2017 2021 2025

2009

C? D , Pbit .km/ s C, Pbit / s


(10,000 km transoceanic link)

139 0.01

1936 0.19

26,951 2.69

375,055 37.5

5,219,263 72,631,164 521 7,263 7 millions Tbits/s

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The optical Moores Law / revisited


7x10 6Tbit/s

1,E+06

Transoceanic Capacity (Tbit/s)

1,E+04 1,E+02 1,E+00 1,E-02 1,E-04 1,E-06


aw s L ore Mo al ptic o

disruptive technology
100Tbit/s

incremental technology

C? D PbitKm /s ? 10 ? 2
3.75 years = 45months

Y 3.75

1,E-08 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Year
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The optical Moores Law / revisited


Year 2025 extra-conservative fiber-capacity prediction:

100 Tbit/s over 10,000 km 1 Pbit/s over 1,000 km 10 Pbit/s over 100 km

Tbit/s =

Key question: Can 2005 Lightwave Communications experts confirm right now wether such performance is theoretically possible ?

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Fiber bandwidth
Attenuation coefficient (dB/km) 400nm=54.5 THz Raman 0.4 10x more dB loss per 100km OH peak 200nm=23.5 THz Raman minimal attenuation = minimal ASE U/XL ? (nm) 1200
25nm (1295-1320) 80nm (1340-1420) E.Desurvire et al., J.Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2004
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bending loss

0.3

EDFA E S C L 1600
40nm (1575-1615) 60nm (1420-1480) 30nm (1530-1560)

0.2

1300

1400

1500

1700
60nm (1630-1690)

Fiber bandwidth: superband exploitation scenario


400nm=54.5 THz

superband B
(dB/km)
0.4 0.3 0.2 200nm=23.5 THz

Phase II (2025) Phase I (2015)

superband A

? (nm)
1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700

Assumption: Two fiber pairs of priority traffic (2X usable fiber capacity) + 2:2 protection

Phase I, 2015: superband A (about 25THz): 50 Tbit/s RZ Phase II, 2025: superband B (about 50 THz): 100 Tbit/s RZ Superband capacity upgrade: M-ary formats (M=4,8,16..)

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Information spectral density: the Shannon limit


1

10 bit/s/Hz
0,8

QAM
M= 128 64 32 16 8

Effect of modulation format QAM and PSK M-aries make possible to reach ISDs much greater than 1 bit/s/Hz But lots of signal levels ! (e.g. >256 for 10 bit/s/Hz) And coherent receivers required, making implementation complex and demanding very high fiber linearity (AM, PM) High ISD requires high SNR

Information spectral density LOG (bit/s/Hz)

0,6 0,4

ink th it n ve t t e bou n a do
4

PSK

0,2 0 -0,2 16 -0,4 32 -0,6 64 -0,8 128 -1 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2 4 8

1 bit/s/Hz

IM-DD
FS K

BER = 1 0 - 3 to 10 -11

16

18

20

22

24

26

Bit SNR (dB)

J.Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2002


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CONCLUSION (1/2)
Traffic growth over the next 20 years phenomenal compared to the past 30 years (+115%/Y world average) But serious problem of installed capacity exhaustion in 3.5-7 years ? Ultra-conservative scenario: - 20% installed capacity growth for undersea links - 25% Internet growth > yields rock-bottom need for 50-100Tbit/s per fiber pair in 2025 > Implementation needs superbands concept phase I/II (yet in two priority-traffic fiber pairs) > 10/20-y challenge: achieve 50-100THz commercial systems

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CONCLUSION (2/2)

Optical (fiber) bandwidth is not infinite Optical Moores law is now meaningless and misleading 20-y objectives can only be reached though tech-driven research and there is an urgent need to get started

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Disclaimer :

This presentation being essentially speculative, conclusions may not be used towards any business purposes

Thank you for your kind attention !

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Information spectral denity: nonlinearity limits


Effect of WDM nonlinearity (binary)
purely non-linear

purely linear
2 3

14 12 10

SNRmax ?

SNR

8 6 4 2 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 model 2 (exact, approx.)

2 ? Pth ? 3 ? 2 PN ?
model 1

? ? ? ?

The capacity of the optical channel cannot be indefinitely increased with signal power since SNR is bounded by a maximum limit which is function of the nonlinearity threshold of the channel

80

90

100

mean signal photon number <n 0 >


J.Wiley & Sons, Inc., 2002
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1: Stark-Mithra, 2001 (Nature) 2: Desurvire, 2002 (ECOC02)