GLOBAL WARMING AND ITS EFFECTS

GLOBAL WARMING AND ITS EFFECTS

PREPARED BY TRYAMBAKESH KUMAR SHUKLA BACHELOR OF PLANNING (IV SEM) BP/463/2008 DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICAL PLANNING SCHOOL OF PLANNING AND ARCHITECTURE
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GLOBAL WARMING AND ITS EFFECTS

INTRODUCTION
GLOBAL WARMING The simplest definition of global warming is that it is an increase in the surface temperature of the earth. The term that we are all getting used to hearing now most often means artificial warming of the earth that is due to greenhouse gases. Global warming is the increase in the average temperature of the earth near surface air and oceans since the mid 20th century and projected continuation. Global surface temperature increased 0.74 0.18C between the start and end of 20th century. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concludes that most of the observed temperature increase since the middle of 20th century was very likely caused by increasing concentration of greenhouse gases resulting from human activity such as fossil fuel burning and deforestation. The IPCC also concludes that variations in natural phenomena such as solar radiation and volcanic eruptions had a small cooling effect after 1950. GREENHOUSE EFFECT A natural system known as the "greenhouse effect" regulates temperature on Earth. Just as glass in a greenhouse keeps heat in, our atmosphere traps the suns heat near earths surface, primarily through heat-trapping properties of certain greenhouse gases. Earth is heated by sunlight. Most of the sun's energy passes through the atmosphere, to warm the earth's surface, oceans and atmosphere. However, in order to keep the atmosphere's energy budget in balance, the warmed earth also emits heat energy back to space as infrared radiation. As this energy radiates upward, most is absorbed by clouds and molecules of greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere. These re-radiate the energy in all directions, some back towards the surface and some upward, where other molecules higher up can absorb the energy again. This process of absorption and re-emission is repeated until, finally, the energy does escape from the atmosphere to space. However, because much of the energy has been recycled downward, surface temperatures become much warmer then if the greenhouse gases were absent from the atmosphere. This natural process is known as the greenhouse effect. Without greenhouse gases, Earth's average temperature would be -19C instead of +14C, or 33C colder.
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GLOBAL WARMING AND ITS EFFECTS GREENHOUSE GASES Water vapour is the most common greenhouse gas. But others that are very important too. Some occur naturally and some come from human activity.\ activity. Carbon Dioxide or CO2 is the most significant greenhouse gas released by human activities, mostly through the burning of fossil fuels. It is the main contributor to the climate change. Methane is produced when vegetation is burned, digested or rotted with no oxygen present. Garbage dumps, rice paddies, and grazing cows and other livestock release lots of methane. naturally Nitrous oxide can be found naturally in the environment but human activities are increasing the amounts. Nitrous oxide is released when chemical fertilizers and manure are used in agriculture. Halocarbons are a family of chemicals that include CFCs (which also damage the ozone layer), and other human made chemicals that contain chlorine and fluorine. human-made Climate model projections summarized in the latest IPCC report indicate that the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 1.1 to 6.4C during the 21st century. The uncertainty in this estimate arises from the use of models with in differing sensitivity to greenhouse gas concentration and the use of differing estimates of future greenhouse gas emission.

Fig: contribution to greenhouse effect

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GLOBAL WARMING AND ITS EFFECTS

GREEN HOUSE EFFECT AND GLOBAL WARMING

PROPERTIES OF A GREENHOUSE GAS ABSORBS INFRARED RADIATION When molecules interact with UV radiation the energy they absorb can break bonds. IR radiation is less powerful as the photons contain less energy. Rather than breaking bonds it causes them to vibrate more energetically. Advanced theory shows that a molecule will absorb IR radiation if the vibration causes a change in its dipole moment.

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GLOBAL WARMING AND ITS EFFECTS ABSORBS ENERGY IN THE WAVELENGTH RANGE 5-100M

The Earth does not emit much radiation outside the 5-100 m range and so any gases which absorb other wavelengths will not contribute significantly to the greenhouse effect.

ENHANCED GREENHOUSE EFFECT The two most significant greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are carbon dioxide and water vapour. Water makes the bigger contribution (about 60%) to the natural greenhouse effect. Between the absorptions caused by carbon dioxide and water there is a window where the majority of the infrared radiation can escape with relatively little absorption (except for a narrow band where ozone absorbs.) About 70% of Earths radiation escapes into space through this window.
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GLOBAL WARMING AND ITS EFFECTS

Gases produced by human activities can increase the natural greenhouse effect of the atmosphere. This is often known as the enhanced greenhouse effect. There are two types of these gases: Gases already present in the atmosphere but an increased amount is added by human activities. This includes carbon dioxide and methane. Carbon dioxide contributes the most to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Gases which are not naturally present. These can sometimes absorb in the window through which radiation would normally escape into space. This can cause them to have a very large greenhouse effect. CFCs (chlorofluorocarbons) are an example. The concentration of carbon dioxide is currently about 380 ppm (parts per million) in the atmosphere and is rising by about 0.45% per year. Modellers use a scenario of doubled CO2 concentration to assess the sensitivity of the Earths climate system to changes in greenhouse gas concentration. They predict rises of about 1.5-4.5C. This is not just due to the direct effect of carbon dioxide there are a large number of feedback processes which amplify the effect of the carbon dioxide.
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GLOBAL WARMING AND ITS EFFECTS Carbon dioxide is about 0.03% of the Earths atmosphere; water is more variable, 7 but at the surface is usually about 1-4% of the atmosphere.

EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING

ENVIRONMENTAL It is usually impossible to connect specific weather events to global warming. Instead, global warming is expected to cause changes in the overall distribution and intensity of events, such as changes to the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation. Broader effects are expected to include glacial retreat, Arctic shrinkage including long-term shrinkage of the Greenland ice sheet, and worldwide sea level rise. Some effects on both the natural environment and human life are, at least in part, already being attributed to global warming. A 2001 report by the IPCC suggests that glacier retreat, ice shelf disruption such as that of the Larsen Ice Shelf, sea level rise, changes in rainfall patterns, and increased intensity and frequency of extreme weather events are attributable in part to global warming. Other expected effects include water scarcity in some regions and increased precipitation in others, changes in mountain snowpack, and some adverse health effects from warmer temperatures. CLIMATE CHANGE Climate change is a long-term shift in the climate of a specific location, region or planet. The shift is measured by changes in features associated with average weather, such as temperature, wind patterns and precipitation. What most people dont know is that a change in the variability of climate is also considered climate change, even if average weather conditions remain the same. Climate change occurs when the climate of a specific area or planet is altered between two different periods of time. This usually occurs when something changes the total amount of the sun's energy absorbed by the earth's atmosphere and surface. It also happens when something changes the amount of heat energy from the earth's surface and atmosphere that escapes to space over an extended period of time. Such changes can involve both changes in average weather conditions and changes in how much the weather varies around these averages. The changes can be caused by natural processes like volcanic eruptions, variations in the sun's intensity, or very slow changes in ocean circulation or land surfaces which occur on time scales of decades, centuries or longer.
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GLOBAL WARMING AND ITS EFFECTS But humans also cause climates to change by releasing greenhouse gases and 8 aerosols into the atmosphere, by changing land surfaces, and by depleting the stratospheric ozone layer. Both natural and human factors that can cause climate change are called climate forcings', since they push, or force' the climate to shift to new values. CAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE Earths climate changes naturally. Changes in the intensity of sunlight reaching the earth cause cycles of warming and cooling that have been a regular feature of the Earth's climatic history. Some of these solar cycles - like the four glacial glacialinterglacial swings during the past 400,000 years - extend over very long time scales and can have large amplitudes of 5 to 6C. For the past 10,000 years, the r earth has been in the warm interglacial phase of such a cycle. Other solar cycles are much shorter, with the shortest being the 11 year sunspot cycle. Other natural causes of climate change include variations in ocean currents (which can alter the distribution of heat and precipitation) and large eruptions of volcanoes (which can sporadically increase the concentration of atmospheric particles, blocking out more sunlight). Still, for thousands of years, the Earths atmosphere has changed very little. has Temperature and the balance of heat-trapping greenhouse gases have remained just heat trapping right for humans, animals and plants to survive. But today were having problems keeping this balance. Because we burn fossil fuels to heat our homes, run our cars, produce electricity, and manufacture all sorts of products, were adding more greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. By increasing the amount of these gases, weve enhanced the warming capability of the natural greenhouse effect.

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GLOBAL WARMING AND ITS EFFECTS

EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

LANDUSE There is distinct interconnectivity between changing land use, global warming and future land use. The different components of the environment are influenced in distinct and characterized ways. Forest: 31% increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution. 45% of carbon dioxide increase in the atmosphere has been attributed to the lost of forest cover.

Fig: contribution of CO2 from forest depletion

Desert Ecosystem: The potential to provide major carbon sinks in both their soils and vegetation. It has normally low carbon storage per unit area. Deserts and semi desert region may be one of the most responsive to elevated levels of carbon dioxide and the resultant changes due to the green house effect. About 37% of the global land surface is desert. The studies predict that with the 50% increase in carbon dioxide, plant production could be enhanced as much as 70% in desert ecosystem. It decreases the influence of salinity on plant growth.

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GLOBAL WARMING AND ITS EFFECTS EXAMPLES OF EFFECT OF GLOBAL WARMING WARMING OF POLAR REGIONS Arctic air temperatures increased by about 5C in the 20th century ten times faster than the global-mean surface temperature while Arctic seasurface temperatures rose by 1C over the past 20 years. In the Northern Hemisphere, spring and summer sea-ice cover decreased by about 10 to 15% from the 1950s to the year 2000; sea-ice extent in the Nordic seas has shrunk by 30% over the last 130 years. Arctic sea-ice thickness declined by about 40% during late summer and early autumn in the last three decades of the 20th century.

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CHANGE IN THE RAINFALL PATTERN Precipitation over many mid- to highlatitude land areas in the Northern Hemisphere has become more and more intense. Rainfall has generally declined in the tropics and subtropics of both hemispheres; when rain does fall, it is frequently so heavy that it causes erosion and flooding. Desertification has been exacerbated by lower average annual rainfall, runoff and soil moisture, especially in southern, northern and western Africa. RISE IN SEA LEVEL Vast expanses of the oceans have warmed over the past 50 years; globally, sea-surface temperatures have risen in line with land temperatures. The global mean sea level has risen by 10 - 20 cm during the 20th century ten times faster than the rate for the previous three thousand years. More water is evaporating from the sea surface; this has likely resulted in total atmospheric water vapor increasing by several percent per decade over many regions of the Northern Hemisphere.

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GLOBAL WARMING AND ITS EFFECTS ECONOMIC EFFECTS Global Warming can have the following effects on the economic conditions: Climate change would increase income inequalities between and within countries A small increase in global mean temperature (up to 2 C by 2100 measured 2100, against 1990 levels) would result in net negative market sector impacts in many developing countries and net positive market sector impacts in many developed countries The aggregate market sector impact (i.e., total impacts across all regions) of a small increase in global mean temperature would amount to plus or minus a few percent of world GDP. PORTAGE GLACIER, ALASKA

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The above picture shows the melting of glacier due to increase in temperature.

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GLOBAL WARMING AND ITS EFFECTS COLORADO RIVER, ARIZONA

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JUNE 2002

DEC 2003

MITIGATION TO GLOBAL WARMING Due to increase in temperature, the sea level is rising and its causing floods and other natural calamities. The IPCC's Working Group III is responsible for crafting reports on mitigation of global warming and the costs and benefits of different approaches. The 2007IPCC Fourth Assessment Report concludes that no one technology or sector can be completely responsible for mitigating future warming. They find there are key practices and technologies in various sectors, such as energy supply, transportation, industry, and agriculture that should be implemented to reduced global emissions. They estimate that stabilization of carbon dioxide equivalent between 445 and 710 ppm by 2030 will result in between a 0.6 percent increase and three percent decrease in global gross domestic product. Mitigation of global warming is accomplished through reductions in the rate of anthropogenic greenhouse gas release. The world's primary international agreement on reducing greenhouse gas emissions, the Kyoto Protocol, now covers more than 160 countries and over 55 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. As of February 2010, only the United States, historically the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, has refused to ratify the treaty. The
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GLOBAL WARMING AND ITS EFFECTS treaty expires in 2012. International talks began in May 2007 on a future treaty to 13 succeed the current one. The 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference met in Copenhagen in December 2009 to agree on a framework for climate change mitigation. No binding agreement was made. There has also been business action on climate change, including efforts to improve energy efficiency and limited moves towards use of alternative fuels. In January 2005 the European Union introduced its European Union Emission Trading Scheme, through which companies in conjunction with government agree to cap their emissions or to purchase credits from those below their allowances. Australia announced its Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme in 2008. United States President Barack Obama has announced plans to introduce an economywide cap and trade scheme.

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GLOBAL WARMING AND ITS EFFECTS BIBLIOGRAPHY INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE KYOTO PROTOCOL INTERNET RESOURCES

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