Efficiency and Profitability Analysis of Investment Banking in Pakistan (2001-2011)

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INTERDISCIPLINARY JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY RESEARCH IN BUSINESS
VOL 4, NO 2
EFFICIENCY AND PROFITABILITY ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT BANKING IN PAKISTAN (2001-2011)

Syed Atif Ali Lecturer in Lahore Business School, The University of Lahore Farzan Yahya Lahore Business School, The University of Lahore Muhammad Nauman Lahore Business School, The University of Lahore Mirza Shehryar Raza Lahore Business School, The University of Lahore Syed Owais Gilani Lahore Business School, The University of Lahore
Abstract This study argues about overall performance of investment banks operating in Pakistan from year 2001 to 2011. The core objective of this research is to check whether the investment banks are earning profits or not and which critical factor is effecting the overall efficiency of banking. Investment banking is the practice of elevating capital for businesses through public floatation and private residency of securities. The investment banking industry plays an imperative intermediation task in all market economies. Different statistical tests i.e. ANOVA, Tukey HSD, Levenes test and regression have applied by using SPSS to verify the association of paid-up capital, equity, number of shares, total assets, taxation and profit before and after taxation with different years. Keywords: Equity, Paid-up Capital, ANOVA, Tukey HSD, Homogeneity, Regression
COPY RIGHT 2012 Institute of Interdisciplinary Business Research
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Introduction
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Investment banks create securities, which contain stocks and bonds, for themselves and other corporations, and expedite the trade in them. In addition, they assist companies to cope up with mergers and purchases. The most important function of investment banking in the economy has conventionally been to help businesses to promote resources for their tasks by selling investment securities to the masses. Unlike commercial banks, investment banks do not look for money deposits from clients in the form of inspecting and savings accounts and they do not make conventional interest-bearing credits to specific customers. Investment banking institutions rather generate their capital mostly: By guidance business clientele for the generation of stocks and shares, bonds along with other stock options. By underwriting investments By aiding mergers as well as purchases, in addition to every sufficient research as well as investments transactions, this could accompany all of them. In addition, simply by brokering (or selling) stock options to shareholders
Throughout Pakistan, you will find 35 banks listed in Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE), using an entire paid-up capital of Rs.10462.39 million. Beyond these 16 tend to be investment banks having a paid-up capital of Rs.3730. 842 million, 13 are usually commercial banks having Rs.6218. 92 million paid-up capital, and the continuing to be 6 banks really are involved} in the investments enterprise with a paid-up capital of Rs.512.628 million. The most important investment bank listed in KSE concerning paid-up capital is Bankers Equity Limited having Rs.655.79 million as paid-up capital.
The very first investment bank had been listed on KSE during 1957, while the next investment bank was listed following an interval of 32 years in 1989. During a period of 5
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years, i. e. 1989-1994 the quantity of investment banks have raised as many as 16. The most records of investment banks listed on KSE were in the years 1992 along with 1993, during 1994 just one investment bank had offered to public. Each of the investment banks listed on KSE is doing quite well. These banks are satisfying their conventional responsibilities and are helping to gather the issuer as well as investor for generating the capital for each others requirement, hence indirectly helping the overall economy of the country throughout industrialization, payment of taxation's to the government through these industries and by providing jobs to the jobless educated as well as skilled persons. The regulations of investment banks had handed to SECP through SBP because the Investment Banks had always lamented that the State Bank of Pakistan, who was prior controller, was preoccupied with the more substantial segment of Commercial Banking. The SBP did not have either the determination, or the ability, or both, to do righteousness with all the smaller, lesser known but more sophisticated and specialized cluster of Investment Banking actions. However, the SBP had also complained, with great validation, how the Investment Banks restricted themselves to simulated Commercial Banking and did diminutive to build up Investment Banking Products suitable for the peculiar local atmosphere. By the passing of the Legislation of these banks from SBP to SECP, there is a new emphasis and knowledge of the problems relating to reforms and the growth of Capital Markets, in order to make all of them more efficient, transparent, readily available and adequate in terms of restricting of Systemic Risk along with a well-organized resolution Process. These restructurings included those, which relevant to: T+3 Settlements. Increase in Net Capital Balance requirements. Imposition of Capital Adequacy Ratio
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Exposure limits margins. Prohibition of Insider Trading
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Supervising of disparities in scrip-wise price movements, returns and deliveries. Restriction on Blank Selling Establishment of CDC and National Clearing System
Even though this kind of reform process is still incomplete and in advancement, all these factors have created an environment that allows, motivates and promotes Investment Banks of the nation to take part in their genuine role of providing high-end services, linked to Financial & Capital Markets. One main change built, by the SECP; with the NBFC Rules 2003 may be the introduction of the NBFC Framework. This framework involves the permission to offer a number of services under the identical corporate configuration. The rationale was in order to merge the activities concerning to Non-Banking Financial Sector, under a single umbrella and encourage these activities by amplifying the capital base and therefore reducing capital costs i-e, CapitalBased Structure where minimal paid up capital requirements were recognized for each Form of Business Activity. The overall performance regarding investment banks may very well be judged from the important factors that during the year 1993, just one investment bank has dealt with losses and that is because of the fact that the bank commenced its maneuver in September 1993 and only after a phase of three months it publicized its annual company accounts. Even today when the stocks and shares are unpredictable and their prices have get rid of all the excess weight, just one investment bank is quoted below par, whilst this marketplace price involving rest of the investment banks are usually quoted above for each value. Until now just a few investment banks have publicized their annual accounts for the year 1994, while in the year 1993, PICIC earned the largest revenue.
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During the past several months, the actual stocks and shares situation regarding KSE has been going downhill and the share prices of the mentioned joint stock companies have been continuously going down. On the other hand, the banking sector represented its power by being the very last one to end up being detrimentally affected by the particular falling prices of the stock. Within the exact same framework, even though the share prices have lately revealed a new rising trend, yet again the banking sector has proved its strength by being the primary to stay in the spotlight of recovery. Objectives The purpose and objectives of this study is: 1. To check overall performance of investment banks operating in Pakistan 2. To test whether they are earning profits or not 3. To compare different variables in over a number of years with the intention of evaluating critical variable effecting overall performance Literature Review Generally, the financial performance of banks and other financial institutions has been measured using a combination of financial ratios analysis, benchmarking, measuring performance against budget or a mix of these methodologies ( Avkiran, 1995 ). The increasing competition in the national and international banking markets, the change over towards monetary unions and the new technological innovations herald major changes in banking environment, and challenge all banks to make timely preparations in order to enter into new competitive financial environment. ( Spathis, and Doumpos, 2002 ) Clarke et al. (2004) try to pursue the nature of the conflict of interest in more detail. The authors partition sell-side firms into three groups: investment banks, brokerage-only firms (with no investment banking operations), and independent research firms. The authors then study the accuracy of analysts earnings forecasts, the biases in their recommendations, and
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whether there is any differential market reaction to these pronouncements depending on the type of broker that employs the analyst. The authors find that analysts at large investment banks issue less optimistic earnings forecasts relative to consensus numbers than do the other two types of analysts. Also, investment bank analysts issue among the most accurate forecasts of any of the three analyst groupings. Notably, analysts who work for large investment banks appear to be less timid than their brethren in that they tend to issue the first forecast in a given quarter. Agarwal (2000) made a detailed empirical analysis of the determinants of savings and investment in South Asia and tried to investigate why South Asia savings and investments rates lag behind the East Asian rates and how they could be improved. The causality analysis between saving rate and GNP growth rate was made. The study used Pooled time series data of South Asian countries from 1960-1998 for investment model and from 1960-1996 for saving model. Ordinary Least Square Method employed to estimate these models. For examining causality, Granger Causality test was used. The study used variables as percentage of GDP. The results of the study indicated that Foreign Direct Investment and Net total foreign borrowing were positively affecting total investment and also to Private Investment. Growth rate of real GDP, Money Supply, and Lagged Dependent variable were positively affecting; Age dependency ratio and Foreign Savings were negatively affecting National Savings and Private Savings rate as well. In case of Sri Lanka, India and All 5 countries (Pooled Data), Growth rate of GDP did Granger cause National Savings. And in case of Bangladesh, and Pakistan, National Savings did Granger cause Growth rate of GDP. Nasir and Khalid (2004) assessed behavior of saving and investment in Pakistan using appropriate econometric and statistical technique and attempted to generate a model on the basis of fundamental theories of saving and investment. They used data from 1971 to 2003, collected from Economic Survey of Pakistan. Ordinary Least Square Method was used as an
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estimation technique. The study concluded that Government Expenditures, Growth rate of Gross Domestic Product and Remittances Growth were positively and significantly influencing National Savings. Verma (2007) analyzed endogenous impact of Savings, Investment and Growth by using Annual data of India from the year 1950 to 2004, employed innovational outlier model. The main objectives of the study were to conduct unit root test which endogenously determined a structural break in the time series. The author used ARDL approach for analyses long run relationship and ECM for short run relationship. The study took each variable as dependent and rest of the variables as independent and examined relationship among them. The analysis concluded that there was no relationship when GDP was taken as dependent variable. It was also found a positive and significant relationship between Gross Domestic Product, Gross Domestic Investment and Gross Domestic Savings in the short run as well as in the long run. In addition, the results concluded that Savings had no impact on growth but growth had impact on savings. Recent papers, such as Ang and Richardson (1994), and Puri (1996) for the pre-GlassSteagall period, and Gande, Puri, Saunders and Walter (1997) for the post-Section-20 era, document, somewhat puzzlingly, that commercial banks are superior to investment banks based upon the evidence that commercial banks underwrite bonds with lower net yields. These findings are inconsistent with the empirical observation that investment banks are prominent underwriters today and prior to the Glass-Steagall Act of 1933. The inflow of FDI can crowd in or crowd out domestic investment and its effect on saving is ambiguous. FDI has a positive overall effect on economic growth but the magnitude of this effect depends on the stock of human capital available in the host economy.
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A high positive correlation between aggregate inflows of FDI and the host countries aggregate exports has been found, while the inflow of FDI tends to increase the host countrys imports. (Graham, 1994). Date and Methodology The data for this research had obtained from Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE). Microsoft Excel and SPSS both have used to accomplish the research. Different statistical tests have applied which helped in fulfilling the objectives of this study. Banks with zero Paid-up capital and defaulter banks have eliminated to get accurate results. There are also some limitations of this research, as the data of year 2008 had not given due to slump or economic crises in Pakistan. Moreover, due to so immense number of data some statistical tests were unable to compute it. Empirical results Firstly, there is some descriptive analysis of the data. Yearly averages of paid-up capital, no. of shares, equity, total assets, sales and profit before and after tax has given in the below table: Table no. 1: Means of different variables of investment banks (Rs. In Millions) Paidup Capital 191.337 234.501 269.101 1523.97 453.668 496.939 661.034 1150.32 11117.7 1132.38 1723.1 No. of Shares 19.1337 23.4501 26.9101 152.397 45.3668 49.6939 66.1034 115.032 1111.77 113.238 172.31 Total Assets 1498.05 1875.23 2979.78 75590.1 4803.62 4924.88 4649.62 4302.02 263360 3018.95 Profit before Tax 31.9726 45.2604 184.879 1471.94 364.398 347.725 502.795 -1256.3 -459.07 -103.95 Profit after Tax 23.0826 43.5239 190.958 854.361 340.407 327.38 483.504 -1266.8 -438.41 -114.04
Years 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2009 2010 2011 TOTAL AVERAGE
Equity 276.373 304.717 676.424 4672.86 1419.98 1652.64 2198.49 2511.04 23158.1 1682.66
Sales 193.073 248.093 410.291 4560.68 648.194 697.342 779.533 113.694 26968.3 247.055
3855.33 36700.2 3486.62 112.961 44.3924
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The table no. 1 shows that there was slight and moderate growth in the year 2001 to 2003, but with the increase in paid-up capital and other variables sales become elevated, which leads to higher profits. However, the growth becomes declining afterward and there was massive deficit suffered by investment banks in year 2009. It may be due to economic crises and recession in Pakistan. The table shows that in 2010 despite increasing an ample amount in paid-up capital, number of shares, equity and total assets, the sales become exceeds but the investment banks could not be able to touched the break-even or produce some income. In 2010, investment banks got tax rebate because a corporation can acquire tax rebates while suffering deficit but in 2009 and 2011, they did not. In 2011, there were still no earnings but deficit had decreased to some extent. Chart no. 1: Yearly comparison of Paid-up capital and equity
Now, there is a graphical presentation of Paid-up capital and Equity in line chart no. 1. It shows that in the year 2004, there was an increase in both variables but subsequently the declining lines show decrease in both variables. In 2010, the lines of paid-up capital and equity increased far above the ground. It may be possible that rising in paid-up capital were due to the development of new financial firms and equity is always greater than equity as it contains profits as well. However, in 2011, the decreasing lines of graph show again diminishing of both variables.
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Chart No. 2: Sales of investment banks from 2001 to 2011
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Now there is visualize staging of sales in the line chart no. 2. It shows the sales of investment banks for a whole decade and a year. There was a deliberate but a steady augmentation from year 2001 to 2003 but in 2004, sales became boost. In 2005, sales again became moderate until 2010. Nevertheless, in 2010, sales were at their boom but this position did not prolong in the latter year. Chart No. 3: Profit before and after tax (year 2001-2011)
The chart no. 3 is a bar chart of profit before and after taxation. It again shows that 2001, 2002 and 2003 earns in a snails pace but in year 2004, there is an enhancing bar of profit before tax but a subordinate bar of profit after tax shows that the taxation grasped most of the profits from firms. Again, there are inferior bars afterwards until 2009. In 2009, there is a colossal deficit suffered by investment banks and despite escalating a massive amount of
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Paid-up capital, equity, total assets and sales, the firms did not reach breakeven. However, the burden of shortfall became dwindles gradually after 2009. This graph also shows that the firms did not acquire tax rebate in 2009 and 2011. Now there is analysis of variances, also known as ANOVA test. This test has applied to check whether there are same variables or some significant difference exists. Appling t-test may not provide effective results as compared to ANOVA as there are more than two variables to test. The hypothesis for ANOVA will be: Ho: 2001= 2002= 2003= 2004= 2005= 2006= 2007= 2009= 2010= 2011 H1: At least one variable or population mean is different from the others Table No. 2: ANOVA table for different variables ANOVA Sum of Squares df Mean Square F Sig. 38918348.093 9 4324260.899 3.790 0.000 233917534.578 205 1141061.144 272835882.671 214 389183.494 9 43242.610 3.790 0.000 2339175.349 205 11410.611 2728358.843 214 281960153.661 9 31328905.962 2.593 0.008 2356169474.731 195 12082920.383 2638129628.391 204 81363819032.698 9 9040424336.966 7.534 0.000 233983841646.518 195 1199917136.649 315347660679.216 204 278932232.451 9 30992470.272 7.411 0.000 815515123.543 195 4182128.839 1094447355.993 204 86074016.548 9 9563779.616 4.645 0.000 407632544.423 198 2058750.224 493706560.970 207 62251495.770 9 6916832.863 3.983 0.000 343849120.826 198 1736611.721 406100616.597 207
PaidBetween Groups up Within Groups Capital Total No. of Between Groups shares Within Groups Total Equity Between Groups Within Groups Total Total Between Groups Assets Within Groups Total Sales Between Groups Within Groups Total Profit Between Groups before Within Groups Tax Total Profit Between Groups After Within Groups Tax Total
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Above table no. 2, shows comparison of different variables with years. All above variables have highly significant values and less than 0.05, so we reject null hypothesis that is Ho and accept alterative hypothesis that is H1. The results show that means are not same over a number of years and there are at least two different variables. Therefore, to recognize the difference in these variables Tukeys Honestly significant differences test. There are many Post Hoc tests to analyze the mean differences but Tukeys HSD compares all pair of group means without increasing the risk of making a Type I error. It will be exceedingly extensive to show all tables of variables, so it is suffice to show few variables with significant different means. Table no. 3: Tukey HSD test for Equity, Total Assets and PAT Tukey HSD Dependent Variables Equity Year Year Mean Difference Sig. 2001 2004 -4416.321637 0.004 2002 2004 -4337.60935 0.006 2003 2004 -3996.431798 0.019 2001 2004 -74135.78497 0.000 2002 2004 -73576.61533 0.000 2003 2004 -72610.3039 0.000 2005 2004 -70786.46561 0.000 2006 2004 -70665.21015 0.000 2007 2004 -70940.46726 0.000 2009 2004 -71288.06825 0.000 2010 2004 -72364.61849 0.000 2011 2004 -72571.13218 0.000 2001 2009 1282.111464 0.042 2002 2009 1311.345905 0.037 2003 2009 1457.797387 0.013 2004 2009 2121.200298 0.000 2005 2009 1607.246423 0.003 2006 2009 1594.219359 0.003 2007 2009 1750.343444 0.001
Total Assets
Profit After Tax
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The Tukey HSD test shows in table no. 3, explains that Equity in 2004 has significantly different means compared with year 2001, 2002 and 2003. Similarly, total assets in year 2004 have different means contrasted with rest of years. Furthermore, Profit after tax in year 2009 has significantly dissimilar means if measured up with years 2001-2007. Mean differences are shown in the table and all p values are less than 0.05 so outcomes are accurate. Now to verify whether the population variances for the groups are significantly different from each other or not and for this purpose Levenes test has applied. The hypothesis for the test will be: Ho: Population variances are homogenous H1: Population variances are heterogeneous Table no. 4: Levenes test of Homogeneity of Variances Test of Homogeneity of Variances Levene Statistic df1 df2 Sig. Paid-up Capital 3.9639 9 205 0.000 3.9639 9 205 0.000 No. of shares 4.3884 9 195 0.000 Equity 10.6139 9 195 0.000 Total Assets 8.7709 9 195 0.000 Sales 3.2310 9 198 0.001 Profit before Tax 3.0952 9 198 0.002 Profit After Tax
Above table no. 4 shows that all values are highly significant. This indicates they are less than 0.05 so we reject null hypothesis (Ho) and accept alternative hypothesis. Therefore, we can say that the population variances are not homogenous. This is factual because variables of this data changes over a number of years. Tests to ensure the normality of data i.e. Kolmogorov-Smirnov, Shapiro-Wilk, cannot be applied because the data is extremely huge for these tests.
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Now, to examine the effect of independent variable on dependent variable, Multiple linear regression analysis has applied on it. Our OLS Model for this analysis will be: Profit after Tax= o+ 1 (No. of shares) +2 (Equity) +3 (total assets) + 4 (Sales) + 5 (Bank/ Financial charges) + 6 (Profit before tax) + 7 (Taxation) Table No. 5: Co-efficient of Determination Model Summary Adjusted Std. Error of Model R R Square R Square the Estimate 1 0.997 0.994771 0.9945853 103.8211369 a. Predictors: (Constant), Taxation, No. of shares, Profit before Tax, Equity, Bank/ Financial Charges, Sales, Total Assets
Table no. 5 shows the model summary about goodness of fit of model. As co-efficient of determination or R square is 0.997, so we can say that our model is 99.7% accurate. As we know that ANOVA test is used to analysis of variances or comparison of two or more variables, so in this case, hypothesis for ANOVA will be: Ho: 1=2=3=4=5=6=7=0 H1: 12345670 Table No.6: ANOVA test ANOVA Sum of Mean Model Squares df Square F Sig. 1 Regression 403971587 7 57710226.7 5354.04 0.000 Residual 2123429.2 197 10778.82848 Total 406095016 204 a. Predictors: (Constant), Taxation, No. of shares, Profit before Tax, Equity, Bank/ Financial Charges, Sales, Total Assets b. Dependent Variable: Profit After Tax
As table no. 6 shows that, the p value is less than 0.05 so we reject null hypothesis (H o) and accept alternative hypothesis (H1) as shown above table.
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Table No. 7: Coefficients to analyze Regression Model Coefficients Unstandardized Standardized Coefficients Coefficients t B Std. Error Beta 4.034 9.365 0.547 0.128 0.044 -0.034 0.004 -0.087 -0.006 0.001 -0.177 0.065 0.015 0.106 -0.025 1.079 0.108
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Mode l
Sig. 0.431 4.261 -8.090 -6.202 4.352 -1.779 133.552 7.233 0.667 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.077 0.000 0.000
1 (Constant) No. of shares Equity Total Assets Sales Bank/ Financial Charges -0.061 0.035 Profit before Tax 0.978 0.007 Taxation 0.410 0.057 Dependent Variable: Profit After Tax
Table no. 7 shows coefficients of regression model which has prepared above. This table shows the values of betas to include in equation or model. Thus by putting values, we get: Profit before Tax= 4.034+ 0.547 (No. of shares) + (-0.034) (Equity) + (-0.006) (total assets) + 0.065 (Sales) (Taxation) The above equation shows that number of shares, sales, Profit before tax and Taxation have positive relation but Equity, total assets and Bank/ financial charges have negative relation with profit after tax. It means that if Rs. 1 Million increases in number of shares can generate Rs. 0.547 Million Profit. Likewise, 1 Million increases in sales can generate 0.065 million Profit. Although, 1 million increases in bank or financial charges leads to decrease in profit after tax by 0.061 million. Typically, taxation has negative relation with profit after tax but in case of deficit, a firm can get tax rebate, which can be beneficial to a firm. Conclusion It may conclude that investment banks play a crucial role for the economic growth of country as they provide extensive range of finance-oriented functions and control in issuance of stock + (-0.061) (Bank/ Financial charges) + (0.978) (Profit before tax) + (0.410)
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and administer its sale to the public. In Pakistan, investment banks from year 2001 to 2003 execute a deliberate growth. However, year 2004 overall performance became boosts but unfortunately instead of constancy or achieving triumph there efficiency drop off. Furthermore in year 2009 investment banking in Pakistan had faced a severe loss which still do not be eradicate. Conversely, it can be believed after analyzing the data that in future or upcoming years, investment banks will definitely get successful in eliminating their entire deficit. Recommendations It has recommended that: 1. Investment banks should advertise well to attract their clients and subsequently attract more firms to go public. 2. They should create values for Stakeholders and Customers on a prolonged basis. 3. Government should help investment banks to push them up. 4. Firms should acquire tax rebates when facing losses. 5. There should be a high level national and domestic saving to improve this sector, as we know saving is equal to investment. 6. HSBC should take immediate actions to eliminate critical factors that are effecting the profitability of the firms.
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References
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Agarwal, P. (2000), Savings, Investment and Growth in South Asia, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, June, 1-47. Ang, J. S. and Richardson, T. (1994). The underwriting experience of commercial bank affiliates prior to the Glass-Steagall Act: A re-examination of evidence for passage of the act, Journal of Banking and Finance, 18(2), 351-395. Avkiran, N.K. (1995). Developing an instrument to measure customer service quality in branch banking. International Journal of Banks Marketing, 12(6), 10-18. Clarke, Jonathan, Ajay Khorana, Ajay Patel, and P.Raghavendra Rau. (2004). The good, the bad and the ugly? Differences in analyst behavior at investment banks, brokerages and independent research firms. Purdue University working paper, September. Graham, E. M., and N. T. Anzai, (1994). The Myth of a De Facto Asian Economic Bloc: Japans Foreign Direct Investment in East Asia. The Columbia Journal of World Business, 29(3), 6-20. Nasir, S. and Khalid, M. (2004), Saving-Investment Behavior in Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation, The Pakistan Development Review, 43(4), 665-682. Puri, Manju, (1996). Commercial banks in investment banking: conflict of interest or certification role? Journal of Financial Economics, 40, 373-401. Spathis, K., and Doumpos M. (2002). Assessing profitability factors in the Greek banking system: A multi criteria methodology International transaction in Operational Research, 9(5), 517-530. Verma, R. (2007). Savings, Investment and Growth in India: An application of the ARDL Bounds Testing Approach, South Asia Economic Journal, 8(1), 87-98.
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INTERDISCIPLINARY JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY RESEARCH IN BUSINESS