MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO

BRAZILIAN MAIN ENERGY SECTOR GOAL:

TO MEET THE EVER GROWING DEMAND FOR ENERGY, WITH A CLEANER, RENEWABLE, RELIABLE AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SUPPLY.

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ENERGY SECTOR: INSTITUTIONAL

MME - Ministry of Mining and Energy: responsible for the energetic planning, is the incumbent of sectors policies conception and implementation. CNPE - National Council for Energy Policy: outlines the main guidelines regarding the sector, that shall be followed by the MME. The council is subordinated to the Presidency. Energetic Research Company EPE: responsible for the studies that base the policies that are implemented by the MME, according its own demands.

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ENERGY SECTOR: INSTITUTIONAL

ELECTRIC ENERGY:
ONS - NATIONAL SYSTEM OPERATOR: Independent, coordinates and controls the operation of production, transmission, distribution and commercialization of electric energy.

LANDMARK; 2004 New Electric Sector Institutional

Model aims at boosting private investment;

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ENERGY SECTOR: INSTITUTIONAL

REGULATORY AGENCIES:
ELECTRIC ENERGY
ANEEL - NATIONAL AGENCY FOR ELECTRIC ENERGY: Linked to the MME, ANEEL regulates and controls the production, transmission, distribution and commercialization of the electric energy.

OIL & GAS

ANP- NATIONAL AGENCY FOR OIL, NATURAL GAS AND BIOFUEL: Under the structure of the MME, it regulates and supervises the activities of these industries; executes the national policies concerning them, promotes bids and contracts with concessionaires.

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ENERGY PLANNING SCENARIOS

PDEE Decennial Plan for Energy Expansion: SHORT AND MIDDLE TERM PLANNING
PLANNING FOR THE NEXT 10 YEARS (CURRENT: PDEE 2008-2017)

PNE National Plan of Energy: LONG TERM PLANNING

PLANNING FOR THE NEXT 25 YEARS (CURRENT: PNE 2030)

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INTERNAL OFFER OF ENERGY

BRAZIL AND WORLD: INTERNAL OFFER OF ENERGY
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

54,6% 87,1% NON-RENEWABLE RENEWABLE 45,4% 12,9% BRAZIL (2008) WORLD (2006)

Source: Resenha Energtica Brasileira; 2009

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INTERNAL OFFER OF ENERGY

BRAZIL: TENDENCY
100% 90% 80% 70% 60%

57,7%

54,1%

53,4% NON-RENEWABLE RENEWABLE

50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%

42,3%

45,9%

46,6%

1998
Source: PNE 2030; EPE

2007

2030

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INTERNAL OFFER OF ENERGY

BRAZIL: TENDENCY, BY SOURCE
100% 90%

28,0% 37,4% 46,5%

Oil Natural Gas

80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30%

15,5% 9,3% 3,7% 6,7% 0,8% 15,3% 5,5% 12,0% 11,5% 18,5% 15,9% 3,2% 9,1% 6,0% 1,4% 14,9% 6,9% 3,0% 13,5%

Coal Nuclear Hidraulic Firewood and Vegetal Coal Sugar Cane and derived Other Renewable

20% 10% 0%

13,6% 1,9%

1998

2007
Source: PNE 2030; EPE

2030

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RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES Electric Energy

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RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES

FOR BIOFUEL:
ETHANOL - PLANTS, PRODUCTION AND INVESTMENT Plants in 2007 Production 2007 - Plants in 2010 Production Investment (units) (billions of (estimated) 2010 - billions 2007-2010 (U$ liters/year) billions) of liters/year (estimated) 350 18 422 23,3 6,5 BIODIESEL - PLANTS, PRODUCTION AND INVESTMENT Plants in 2008 Production 2007 - Plants in 2010 Production Investment (estimated) (units) (billions of 2010 - billions 2008-2010 (U$ liters/year) of liters/year billions)
(estimated)

62

1,2

108

3,3

1,2

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ETHANOL PLANTS

46 NEW PLANTS UNTIL 2010

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BIODIESEL PLANTS

Operation in 2007 Start building in 2007 Planning/Project stage

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RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES

FOR ELECTRIC ENERGY:
BRAZIL HAS ALREADY 88,4% OF ITS ELECTRICITY GENERATED FROM RENEWABLE SOURCES, MAINLY FROM HYDROPOWER PLANTS. HOWEVER, THE WHOLE REMAINIG HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL IS SET TO BE PUT IN PRODUCTION BY 2030.

CONVENTIONAL SOURCES Hydroelectricity ALTERNATIVE RENEWABLE SOURCES Wind Power Biomass: co-generation electricity and thermal (uses: Vegetal > bagasse, rice straw, others; Organic waste; Biofluids - vegetal oils) PCH - Small Hidropower Plants Solar Photo-voltaic (PV) Tidal Power Geothermal Osmotic

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RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES

ITAIP HYDROELETRIC PLANT - PRODUCTION CAPACITY: 14 GW

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RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES

OSRIO WIND POWER PLANT - PRODUCTION CAPACITY: 150 MW

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PAC Growth Acceleration Program Investments in Energy

Programs Eletric Generation Eletric Transmission Oil and Gas Renewables Fuels Sum R$ billions 2007 2008-2010 2007-2010 After 2010 11,5 54,4 65,9 20,7 4,3 8,2 12,5 3,4 35,9 143,1 179,0 138,1 3,3 14,1 17,4 27,0 55,0 219,8 274,8 189,2

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RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES Electric Energy

Incentives to adopt Alternative Sources of Energy
Brazilian hydropower known potentials shall all be in use, by 2030; Hydroelectric plants need complementary sources, as their production varies each season; Growing ambient concerns about huge reservatories; Lesser use of fossil sources (natural gas) that are used to complement hydropower plants. They are not desirable due to their CO2 and other emissions; Development of new industries related to these alternative sources; Universalization of electricity in distant places, where only a localized production (Wind Power NE / Solar PV - N) can reach them; Guarantee of access to the sources and power supply, natural occurrence, not imported; Optimization of the use of water resources, where they are critical (NE)

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RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES Electric Energy

Barriers to the use of Alternative Sources of Energy
Still higher cost to produce from these sources, when compared with fossil sources. Some are on their way to bridge the gap ( Wind Power, Biomass, PCH) The present stage of some promising sources technologies is still incipient or beginning ( Solar PV, Tidal Power, Geothermal ). The need for incentives and special (exemptions) taxes policies, to develop them into a competitive stage. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Carbon Credits markets: national small producers dont access these mechanisms to finance projects and optimize their costs.

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RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES

PUBLIC POLICIES 2004 PROINFA (Targeted at Wind Power, Biomass and PCH)
Objective: increase alternative sources in the electricity supply. Contracted for long term supply, at higher prices. Technology development Creation of an industry for these sources Target: to contract 3,300 MW of renewable alternative sources, 1/3 of each. Most of the plants contracted were implemented or under construction. Financing by BNDES (government fomenting) The program has been substituted by a new strategic approach.

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RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES

PUBLIC POLICIES Current
Specific supply bids for each source, contracts for 20 years. Wide array of tax exemptions for the plants and its supply chain. Energy planning: alternative sources shall represent 10% of the electricity supply, by 2030. Prices have been declining, since this policy started. Last bid for Wind Power Electricity reached a price as low as U$ 80/MWh, close to Natural Gas prices. In the bid, 783 MW (avarage) were bought, representing contracts that totalized U$ 10.5 billion, from 71 new Wind Power plants. New companies have shown interest to operate in Brazil, aiming these new market > technology transference.

Results
-

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Onshore potential up to 300 GW offshore still to be evaluated; Renewable, reliable, clean and sustainable source for electric energy; Technology matured, prices down > economic viability; Raw material with zero cost. Only amortization of investment; Free and open access to the source > does not depend of foreign markets; Can stimulate regional development in deprived areas (NE); Complementary to hydropower plants, mainly in the NE. Optimize use of water resources; Allow the development of a new industry, acquiring of new technologies. But, technology should be adapted to Brazils specificities, to be able to produce electricity with greater capacity factor.

RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES WIND POWER ELECTRICITY

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MAP OF THE WIND POWER - ELETRIC POTENTIAL IN BRAZIL

Source:ANEEL, 2005.

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THANK YOU!

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ENERGY PLANNING
MAIN DRIVERS THAT WILL IMPACT INTERNAL DEMAND FOR ENERGY, IN 2010-2017:
DEMAND ELASTICITY VS. GROWTH OF INVESTMENT, POPULATION AND GDP:
MEAN GDP ANUAL GROWTH: 5%* > Generalized growth on energy consumption that shall accumulate 47,7% in this period. MEAN RATE OF INVESTMENTS : 20% > Generalized impact, most on industrial energy consumption. MEAN POPULATION ANUAL GROWTH: 1,2% > Accumulated for the period: 10%. (Will add new 12 million consumers ) Major impact on residential consumption. MEAN HOUSEHOLDS ANUAL GROWTH: 2,2% > (Will add 9 million households). Consumer energy demand, specially electricity)

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ENERGY PLANNING
ELECTRICITY DEMAND
GENERAL ELASTICITY-INCOME (GDP per capita): 1% of GDP growth : 1.3% demand growth EXPECTED EXPANSION OF ELECTRIC ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN 2017: 221.000 GWh Need for new 25,5 GW of production capacity = 2 Itaips* over the next 8 years)