Running Head: FUTURE OF EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY

The Future of Educational Technology Doug Smith UBC - ETEC511

FUTURE OF EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY Introduction There are many facets to the foundations of Educational Technology and our study of each foundation gives us a new view from which we can perform an analysis. The challenge though, is to not view educational technology through individual viewports, which serves as an immediate reflection of our current status, but to try and anticipate the future of technology in education. The reasons for wanting to predict the future are varied but the interest should be great. Depending upon the predicted future, various partners in education will have diverse reactions: teachers may decide to pursue a particular professional development; administrators will implement suitable policies and purchasing decisions; academics will plan future research; students will anticipate future career options which match their personal interests; parents will

have a better understanding of the changing world and educational systems that their students are entering. The purpose of this essay is to present portals as a way to journey towards the future. The portals are individually reflective in nature, but as with nature, a holistic look and approach presents a broader picture and greater understanding of the reality around us and where this reality is leading us. Such a holistic approach is warranted as response to fragmentation and micro-fragmented studies that often provide us with great detail but little in terms of over-riding effects. I propose a synthesis of views in order to travel through portals of historical and global ecological trends, copyright analysis and economic shifts, which tells us that not only are educational technologies expanding, but that the future of education is educational technology, and this reliance will come to fruition within a seven year timeframe.

FUTURE OF EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY Analysis Ecological Portal My discussion on educational technology begins with an ecological metaphor that provides a framework by which other analysis can be performed from. Zhao and Frank (2003),

studying various research into computer uses in schools, recognized that there was a disparity of reasons for variable adoption. Instead of conducting yet another research project or develop a new hypothesis or methodology of research, Zhao and Frank created a framework for further study. Their realization was that computer use seemed to permeate schools not unlike an invasive species invades a non-native environment. Zebra mussels invading the Great Lakes was the chosen metaphor, and Zhao and Frank developed a very convincing argument for its validity. While they did not extend a prediction within their paper, as this was not its purpose, an extension of their metaphor and argument would be that computer use will continue unabated, with no predators, natural or contrived, to control the dominance of the invader. It follows from then, that computer use in schools, like zebra mussels, is poised for future dominance. The natural reaction to this conjecture, however, is the reasonable questioning of its accuracy. Is it reasonable to extend a rational metaphor as a means to project into the future? In this sense, the answer is probably no. The ecological metaphor suffers from tangible laws of prediction, not unlike the challenges that climate change models experience. Models do not provide proof of ideas. Proof in the scientific sense comes from the concept of laws which describe how something works. Models work as explanations on why something works or exists, and it is society that determines which models are to be believed by gaining acceptance through supporting evidence. To address this, we need to collect evidence in a cycle of modeling and observations, and from this we build evidence that supports the thesis. In terms of the future

FUTURE OF EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY dominance of educational technology, I now turn to historical, economical and intellectual property analyses to offer support. Historical Context In 1957, Marshall McLuhan famously announced that the medium is the message, and the importance of this statement has not diminished in the 54 years since. Using succinct examples such as lightbulbs, television, and Cubism (ABC Radio National Network, 1977; McLuhan, 2001), McLuhan argues that the medium itself transmits a societal communique of greater significance than the underlying message encoded within. From this, we can say that medium or technology is an extension of ourselves (Gordon, 2004). This historical portal into technology reverberates strongly within our current context where clearly it is the medium, the internet, which defines what our educational playground looks like. It is the new pedagogical tools such as wikis, blogs and webquests that define many of our learning environments (Chandra & Chalmers, 2010; Miyazoe & Anderson, 2010). Using these new tools, students are defining their own learning and curriculum and in many cases, creating their own content. Educators are the guides that try to instill overriding enduring

concepts, but it is the medium of the internet that ultimately defines what each student learns and perhaps more importantly, how they learn. For example, Kleemans et al. (2011) demonstrates how a webquest results in educational outcomes with either well-defined or ill-defined tasks. The webquest provides both structure and freedom and it is this process of exploration of the internet, and not a topic, that provides the learning. McLuhans posit that the medium is the message is not just a theory without experimentation. It is validated by research, and relevant to internet growth. Matlak (2010) looked at serial journal subscriptions at Western Illinois University Libraries, and determined

FUTURE OF EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY that internet browsing was not only the cause for the decrease in online serials, but that the internet was ultimately driving the type of research conducted at the university. While being qualitative in nature, this research serves notice that a causal relationship between internet use

and educational outcomes exists. Matlak (2010) showed how the Internet, the preferred medium for students at WIU, determined the learning content, and I would argue that the actual content is of little importance in this paradigm. The Internet could have presented many different forms and ideas to the students, and therefore the most important aspect of this notion is that it is the Internet, the medium, which not only delivers the message but also is the proxy for learning content. The future of the internet in schools seems very set for the foreseeable future. For example, a 2010 report by the Federal Communications Commission (2010) indicates that nearly 100% of stakeholders in E-rate funded programs would incorporate mobile and wireless computer access if appropriate funding is put in place, and this corresponds to an approximately 35% increase. As usage increases, students habits change and morph into new customs and behaviours (Limayem & Cheung, 2011). Specifically, student use of the internet and internet learning technologies such as Blackboard, Moodle, and various Web 2.0 tools leads to a change in the relationship between intent and continued use. There is no reason to believe that this change will abate in the next ten years. Todays students are considered digital natives, and the ubiquitous use of smartphones and synchronous always-connected devices exemplifies this notion. As technology grows, its importance as the actual manifestation of knowledge will also grow proportionately. This is the nature of the internet, first theorized by McLuhan and now realized throughout our schools.

FUTURE OF EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY Copyright Portal The historical context of internet usage implies a mode for the expansion of educational technology, and viewing through a historical portal allows us to see the possibility of its

dominance. It is also useful to identify a catalyst for change, and one such change is cemented in copyright, intellectual property rights and the democratization of education. Copyright issues are nothing new to media or educational media. Media piracy has a long and established history, whether it is from print to music scores, mp3 music, or newer medias such as movies and digital books (Philip, 2005). Furthermore, piracy issues are not local problems but are inherently global, and with the digital incarnation of piracy, what was global is now surely local. Barlow (1994) recognizes that in our digital age, intellectual works can be instantly copied and distributed. From this, he asks how we can hope to protect intellectual property given such a climate. Different organizations and corporations have invested resources into stopping digital piracy, but there is currently no compelling reason to think that piracy activity will abate. Barlow suggests that a social contract or trade in intellectual property may offer a path forward in terms of protecting author rights, and it is from this point which leads to the catalyst for the dominance of educational technology. Digital textbooks and educational media are becoming increasingly popular and therefore become pirated works (Solum, 2005; Young, 2008). The ethical dangers of institutional piracy in public education are so far protecting digital rights on a large scale. However, this scenario has allowed for the emergence of a new market in educational media through free/libre open source software, FLOSS (Kim, 2006), and works produced with Creative Commons designation. It is through the idea of technology and support from FLOSS from which corporate powers begin to lose their control on education and we see a new beginning for its democratization.

FUTURE OF EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY With piracy and pay-for resources on one side, and availability of FLOSS materials on the other, it is reasonable to think that free on-line resources will eventually prevail over educational media markets. Despite that some students say they prefer paper textbooks (Oda & Sansilo, 2008; Ovadia, 2011), other research is much more optimistic in the adoption of online textbooks (Petrides, Jimes, Middleton-Detzner, Walling, & Weiss, 2011). Petrides et al. (2011) paint a positive picture of FLOSS acceptance by university students and teachers alike. Their experience shows that the portability and dynamic organization of online textbooks are draws to students, but the largest appeal was based around personal cost. Such a benefit to individuals is lost in public education, but school districts will welcome the growing trend of e-textbooks published under generous GNU licenses, where costs may be reduced from $140 to $30 per textbook (Beezer, 2009). It remains to be seen how long it will take for a significant portion of textbooks and materials to become free, but the process of democratization has started with materials made available at substantially less cost, combined with the growth of home-brew e-published materials. Such is the case with teacher-created online notes and texts which embed webquests, gaming activities, collaborative works creation through linked wikis, and project based assignments. It is becoming increasingly common for teachers to use online textbooks for curriculum such as chemistry and physics, as these are curricula that are very set in the topics

covered. Other curricula have been slower to adoption because of the high variability of content coverage, chosen and changed on an on-going basis by government or regional authorities. However, when such resources are published and made available, the contents, presentation, and included media, including java applets, hyperlinks, flash animations, SCORM quizzes and linked

FUTURE OF EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY asynchronous discussions, become the natural extensions of the included pedagogy. It is the technology of FLOSS resources that places a new reality on the horizon of education. EcoPolitical Portal The final analysis that convinces a complete transformation to educational technology is found by passing through an ecopolitcal portal. I have purposely tried to avoid writing about

economics up to this point because of its incredibly strong influence on the topic. Economic and financial considerations govern the politics of education in todays public and private sector. Prolonged recessions, the pending collapse of the Eurozone, and the debate of a depression in the USA, all contribute to a stressed economic reality that filters through our society and leaves a large, gaping portal to the future that is difficult to ignore and likely impossible to not pass through. As such, if an economical viewpoint is attached directly to topics of history, ecology and democratization, it becomes trivial to argue for its impact. I prefer to use the economic climate as a setting, instead of a stream of individual impetuses that affect each factor in education as a declining asset. To address the issue of economics and the future of educational technology, I will briefly examine a case study of public education in British Columbia. British Columbia offers insight into the issue because of its multi-faceted geo-political climate. British Columbias economy is relatively strong but stressed; the economy is both local and global with strong ties to Asia; the politics have conservative roots but there also exists widely accepted liberal values and social leanings. Public education in BC is on the cusp of what could be massive change. The Ministry of Education has issued its new Educational Plan (British Columbia Ministry of Education, 2011), and the focus is clearly on Personalized Learning. I do not argue against the pedagogical shifts

FUTURE OF EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY and ideals contained in the educational plan and personalized learning. There are a lot of positive initiatives and reasonings that can be attributed to this pedagogical shift, such as modes of differentiation for learners, evolved time for learning, and flexible modes of assessment. Of, perhaps stated more bluntly, personalized learning is the new weapon that is aimed squarely at student apathy and distrust. However, my conjecture is that the BC Ministry of Education is using this weapon for reasons that are not so altruistic. Governments are often elected on ideological grounds, but they tend to govern on much more pragmatic levels. Therefore, simply put, the crux of this initiative is based on the need to change educational models because of economic pressures. British Columbia has recently gone through significant phases of cost savings in public education by closing facilities and decreasing the workforce. The cost savings required for education are still very real, and as the British Columbia Ministry has recently

espoused in contract negotiations with the provincial teachers federation (BCTF), there is no new money available. To address economic pressures, personalized learning aids the process by migrating students out of set school settings into lower-cost settings via distance learning. Furthermore, there is a very strong initiative by the government to encourage students use of personalized mobile devices and computers as a way to mitigate infrastructure costs. The outputs from these efforts are clear, where schools will be shifting away from Ministry supplied and paid-for resources. Instead, educational technologies will be used to replace older, long standing traditions of education delivery. The timeframe for these changes is somewhat unknown, as new change depends on pilot programs, political will, and political longevity. However, we are given a view which strongly indicates rapid change. Two years ago, the Ministry of Education, along with many others, trumpeted the cause of 21st Century Learning. In only two years, this prerogative has morphed into a much more concise and

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focused effort, with Personalized Learning being the output. The British Columbia Educational Plan is on a fast track with an initial six month process of consultation, and calls for tangible outcomes by 2013-14 (Kuehn, 2011). Supporting evidence for the quick ascension of educational technology comes from a second ecopolitcal force, the publishing industry. Adrian Sannier, a Digital Strategist and VicePresident of Product at Pearson eCollage, says that rapid change is happening right now, in terms of months, and major shifts in content creation and distribution of learning materials will be the result of technological applications (Sannier, 2011). The digital shift is upon us. If other industries and other fields are any guide, once the dominos begin to fall, progress will be swift and irreversible (Sannier, 2011, 38). From this, we are given a strong indication of how fast educational technology can move. This is seen not only through a political lens but also through corporate industry which holds considerable power in the delivery of education. If the political will to carry through with these initiatives is indicative of pressures and stresses affecting other jurisdictions, then it is reasonable to estimate wide-spread adoption of educational technology to occur within a seven year period. Conclusion Zhao and Franks (2003) ecological metaphor gives us predictive anticipation on the where educational technology is heading, but this prediction does not provide a why or how of future transformations or paths forward. I then looked through the historical context of McLuhans medium (the internet) as the message (education), and this provides a mode of transformation from our current status of educational technology. Furthermore, an analysis of copyright pressures and the emergence of FLOSS materials and resources provides a catalyst for change, acting as a trigger point that not only provides materials and resources for education, but the very technological mode of FLOSS itself becomes the pedagogical setting of education.

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Finally, I showed through a case study that ecopolitical demands are such that they must force a path of change towards technology. The ecopolitical will and setting will vary from region to region, and the predictive consequence for different jurisdictions will be highly variable. However, global economic pressures and the shrinking of the Global Village along with competitive educational settings, fighting for the publics educational dollars, should result in a situation where educational technology will dominate our pedagogy and institutions within a seven year timeframe.

FUTURE OF EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY References ABC Radio National Network (1977) Marshall McLuhan full lecture: The medium is the message - 1977 part 1 v 3. [video file] Retrieved from http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImaH51F4HBw&feature=youtube_gdata_player Barlow, J. P. (1994). The economy of ideas. Wired, 2(03). Retrieved from http://www.wired.com/wired/archive/2.03/economy.ideas.html Beezer, R. (2009). The textbook that is truly free. Washington: Mathematics and Computer Science Department, University of Pugent Sound. Retrieved from

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http://www.educause.edu/EDUCAUSE+Review/EDUCAUSEReviewMagazineVolume4 4/TheTextbookThatIsTrulyFree/163572 British Columbia Ministry of Education. (2011). BCs education plan. BCs Education Plan. Retrieved from http://bcedplan.ca Chandra, V., & Chalmers, C. (2010). Blogs, wikis and podcasts--collaborative knowledge building tools in a design and technology course. Journal of Learning Design, 3(2), 3549. Federal Communications Commission, W. (2010). 2010 e-rate program and broadband usage survey: report. da 10-2414. Federal Communications Commission. Gordon, T. (2004). Terrance Gordon on Marshall McLuhan and what he was doin. The Beaver, 84(2), 11-12. Kim, S. (2006). Capitorgs and free/libre and open source software (FLOSS): toward critical technological literacy and free/libre and open source society (FLOSS). Educational Insights, 10(2), 6

FUTURE OF EDUCATIONAL TECHNOLOGY Kleemans, T., Segers, E., Droop, M., & Wentink, H. (2011). Webquests in special primary education: Learning in a web-based environment. British Journal of Educational Technology, 42(5), 801-810.

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Kuehn, L. (2011, December). BCs educational plan: Experiments with kids learning. Teacher, 24(3). Retrieved from http://www.bctf.ca/uploadedFiles/Public/Publications/TeacherNewsmag/archive/20112012/2011-11/TeacherNovDec2011.pdf Limayem, M., & Cheung, C. M. K. (2011). Predicting the continued use of internet-based learning technologies: the role of habit. Behaviour & Information Technology, 30(1), 9199. Matlak, J. (2010). What drives usage. Journal of Electronic Resources Librarianship, 22(3-4), 144-165. McLuhan, M. (2001). The medium is the message. Media and Cultural Studies: Keyworks (pp. 107-116). Wiley-Blackwell. Retrieved from http://books.google.ca/books?hl=en&lr=&id=umYwLkFOR0IC&oi=fnd&pg=PA107&dq =mcluhan+the+medium+is+the+message&ots=zvyi0NVrgy&sig=RWGxrGceJXbH3Z1 GgLtRtac1y7g#v=onepage&q=mcluhan%20the%20medium%20is%20the%20message& f=false) Miyazoe, T., & Anderson, T. (2010). Learning outcomes and students perceptions of online writing: Simultaneous implementation of a forum, blog, and wiki in an EFL blended learning setting. System: An International Journal of Educational Technology and Applied Linguistics, 38(2), 185-199. Oda, S., & Sansilo, G. (2008). Book industry trends. New York: Book Study Group.

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Ovadia, S. (2011). Open-access electronic textbooks: an overview. Behavioral & Social Sciences Librarian, 30, 52-56. doi:10.1080/01639269.2011.546767 Petrides, L., Jimes, C., Middleton-Detzner, C., Walling, J., & Weiss, S. (2011). Open textbook adoption and use: Implications for teachers and learners. Open Learning, 26(1), 39-49. Philip, K. (2005). What is a technological author? the pirate function and intellectual property. Postcolonial Studies, 8(2), 199-218. Sannier, A. (2011). If not now, when? EDUCAUSE Review, 46(6). Retrieved from http://www.educause.edu/EDUCAUSE+Review/EDUCAUSEReviewMagazineVolume4 6/IfNotNowWhen/238388 Solum, L. B. (2005). The future of copyright. Texas Law Review, 83(4), 1137-1172. Young, J. R. (2008). On the web, a textbook proliferation of piracy. Chronicle of Higher Education, 54(44), A1. Zhao, Y., & Frank, K. A. (2003). Factors affecting technology uses in schools: an ecological perspective. American Educational Research Journal, 40(4), 807-840. doi:10.3102/00028312040004807