Banking industry: In line with generally improving world macroeconomic conditions, the outlook for the global banking

sector continues to solidify. Although we are mindful of risks from rising oil prices and inflation, unrest in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) and reverberations from the global supply chain emanating from Japans earthquake and tsunami, our global outlook remains generally upbeat. This backdrop should provide a sufficient foundation for continued loan and asset growth. This is particularly the case for emerging markets and developed states that did not experience banking sector crises in 2007-2009. Major potential headwinds include global monetary tightening, which will be concentrated in emerging markets. US and eurozone: The US macro outlook suggests mixed prospects for its commercial banks. Bank lending tends to expand alongside economic growth and in this respect, with decent but not particularly strong economic expansion forecast for the foreseeable future, banking sector loan growth will be slow for some time. Importantly, we continue to believe that in the current climate of household deleveraging, there will be subdued demand for credit.Emerging Asia: The Emerging Asia banking outlook is generally positive, though we have some concerns about some of the highest flying sectors. In particular, we are concerned that loan loss provisions in the Chinese banking system are hugely underestimated and that the stability of the industry rests on non-performing loans remaining well behaved, which has historically not been the case following policy-driven lending sprees. Emerging Europe: While Western Europe is struggling to contain a regional sovereign debt crisis and revive economic growth, the same pressures are less severe in emerging Europe.Latin America: We expect massive expansion of the financial services sector in Latin America over the next few years, driven by an expanding middle class, financial market integration and the ongoing search for yield among developed market investors. This is not a new theme for the region, but it is one we believe will continue to offer opportunities for high-end financial services expansion over the next few years.Sub-Saharan Africa: The regions major banking sectors (South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya) are all continuing their recoveries, albeit with varying degrees of strength .Middle East and North Africa: The outlook for banks across the MENA region is by no means uniform.We expect banks in Qatar and the UAE to outperform through the rest of 2011 as higher oil prices and improved sentiment enable Doha and Dubai to solidify their reputations as stable hubs for the regional financial services industry. Financial service industry: The financial services industry is a vital component of the US and world economies. It provides the fuel that promotes job creation and sustains economic growth and innovation. A robust finance industry provides businesses with new ways to lower the cost of capital, stimulates global investment and trade, and presents investors with a broad array of products and services to increase return and manage risk. Importantly, these financial services and products help facilitate and finance the export of manufactured goods and agricultural products, while helping the US become the worlds number one exporter of services. The wealth generated by the financial services industry contributed nearly 6 percent, or more than $828 billion, to 2009 US GDP. The most recent data available (2000-2008) indicates

contributions by the sector remain an important and growing portion of GDP. As an overall contributor to the US GDP, the services sector grew by more than $120 billion during 2009, while the financial services industry grew by more than $16 billion. The substantial contribution of the financial services industry is supported, in part, by the export of financial services and products. In 2008 (latest export data available), US financial services firms exported $70.9 billion of financial products and services, and garnered a surplus of more than $8.9 billion.6 These exports continue to generate significant employment opportunities within the US. References: Business Monitor International (2011). Turkey Commercial Banking Report : Global Commercial Banking Outlook.. London: Business Monitor International Goldman Sachs Global Economics, Commodities and Strategy Research, (2009) U.S. Financial Services Industry . [Internet] Dostupno na: http://www.ita.doc.gov/td/finance/publications/U.S.%20Financial%20Services%20Industry.p df