Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times Poll For release: Wednesday, August 1, 2012 7:00 AM EDT BATTLEGROUND POLL:

FLORIDA, OHIO AND PENNSYLVANIA July 24-30, 2012 President Obama enjoys a lead over Mitt Romney in each of three battleground states Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida, among likely voters (those who will definitely vote). Florida: President Obama has a six point lead over Mitt Romney (51% to 45%) including a slight lead among both men and women and a 19 point lead with Hispanics. Romney leads among those 65 and over. Ohio: President Obama also has a six point lead (50% to 44%) here, helped by a slight edge among independents (47% to 44%) and a commanding 21 point lead among women. Romney has a 10 point lead among men. Pennsylvania: President Obama enjoys an 11 point lead (53% to 42%), bolstered by a 22 point lead among independent likely voters and a 24 point lead (59% to 35%) among women. Pennsylvanians are less optimistic about their states economy than in Florida or Ohio, but give Obama the edge in handling the national economy. In all three states, Barack Obama is viewed more favorably than Mitt Romney. Most think the President cares about their needs and problems; fewer say the same about Mitt Romney. Four in 10 in each state view Mitt Romneys business background as the kind of experience that would create jobs; slightly more say his experience is too focused on profits. But skepticism crosses state lines: in all three, most dont think either candidates policies will help their financial situation.

Here are the results: 2012 Vote for President (Among likely voters) Florida Ohio Pennsylvania 51% 50% 53% 45 44 42

Obama Romney

In all three states, majorities of the Presidents supporters say they strongly favor him. About one in five of Mitt Romneys voters say they are backing him because they dislike incumbent Barack Obama. Strength of Support (Among likely voters) Florida Ohio Obama Romney Obama Romney Voters Voters Voters Voters Strongly favor 65% 49% 60% 42% Have reservations 24 29 31 35 Dislike other candidate 10 19 9 22

Pennsylvania Obama Romney Voters Voters 59% 41% 33 37 7 22

Florida The President receives support from women in Florida. He also leads among Hispanics, 56% to 37%. While Romney has a strong lead among likely voters 65 and over, Obama leads among all other age groups. Independents in Florida are split, 47%-46%. 2012 Vote for President - FLORIDA (Among likely voters) Obama Romney 51% 45 51% 50% 60% 52% 41% 47% 42% 93% 56% 44 46 36 45 56 46 55 4 37

All

Women Men Age 18-49 Age 50-64 Age 65+ Independents Whites Blacks Hispanics Ohio

The Presidents lead among women in Ohio is 21 points in this poll, while men favor Romney by 10 points. The race is much closer among independents; they favor the President by just three points. President Obama had difficulty connecting with white working voters without a college degree during the 2008 campaign; white voters without a degree favor his rival by seven points. Obama has a slight lead among voters under 65 in Ohio, and the two candidates divide the vote of older voters. 2012 Vote for President - OHIO (Among likely voters) Obama Romney 50% 44 58% 42% 53% 49% 48% 47% 44% 47% 44% 87% 37 52 41 46 47 44 51 49 51 4

All Women Men

Age 18-49 Age 50-64 Age 65+ Independents Whites White, college degree White, no degree Blacks

Pennsylvania The President enjoys a sizable lead in Pennsylvania, one that is especially large among women (24 points) and independents (22 points) in this state. As in Ohio, white voters without a college degree in Pennsylvania support Mitt Romney. 2012 Vote for President - PENNSYLVANIA (Among likely voters) Obama Romney All 53% 42 Women Men Age 18-49 Age 50-64 Age 65+ Independents Whites White, college degree White, no college degree 59% 47% 59% 49% 49% 58% 47% 55% 42% 35 50 36 46 46 36 49 41 53

There is room for movement in the race, but not much. In Florida, just one in 10 Obama voters and one in 10 Romney voters say they could still change their minds. In Ohio and Pennsylvania, Romneys supporters are less likely than Barack Obamas voters to say they could still change their minds. Mind Made Up? (Among likely voters) Obama Voters Florida Mind made up Could still change Ohio Mind made up Could still change Pennsylvania Mind made up Could still change 84% 15 90% 9 86% 13 89% 10 89% 11 90% 10

Romney Voters

Likely voters in each of these three states have mostly favorable views of President Obama, while opinions of Republican Mitt Romney are more mixed. Ohio and Florida voters are divided in their views of him, and in the Keystone state, more view Romney negatively than positively.

Favorable Unfavorable

Views of the Candidates (Among likely voters) Florida Ohio Obama Romney Obama Romney 50% 41% 51% 40% 46 42 45 43

Pennsylvania Obama Romney 53% 39% 42 47

Issues and Qualities In Ohio and Florida, voters are split on which candidate - President Obama or Mitt Romney -would do a better job on the economy, the most important issue to voters. In these states the President has an edge over Romney on the issues of national security and health care. But among Pennsylvania voters, Mr. Obama has a 4-point advantage on dealing with the economy, and a double digit lead on health care and national security. Who Would do a Better Job on? (Among likely voters) Florida Ohio Pennsylvania Obama Romney Obama Romney Obama Romney The economy 45% 47 46% 45 48% 44 National security 48% 44 50% 41 50% 40 Health care 50% 42 48% 42 51% 41 Neither candidate is viewed by many voters in these key states as having policies that would help them financially. In all three states, most likely voters say if the President is re-elected, his economic policies would either hurt them financially or would make no difference. The same is true for Mitt Romney, but in Florida 31% of likely voters say if Romney is elected president his policies would help them financially higher than the 23% that say that about the President. Still, just as many Florida voters (30%) say Romneys policies would hurt them financially. Impact of Candidate Policies on Your Financial Situation (Among likely voters) Obamas Policies Romneys Policies FL OH PA FL OH PA Help 23% 26% 23% 31% 26% 26% Hurt 38 38 37 30 37 32 No difference 36 34 37 34 34 37 The Obama campaign has been attacking Romney on his record at Bain Capital. In Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, four in 10 likely voters see Romneys business background as the right kind of experience to get the economy creating jobs again, but more think his experience is too focused on making profits instead of creating jobs. Mitt Romneys Business Experience (Among likely voters) FL OH PA Right experience for creating jobs 42% 41% 42% Too focused on profits 48 50 51

More than half of voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania think Barack Obamas economic policies are currently improving the nations economy or will do so if given more time. Still, more than 40% of likely voters in these states say the Presidents policies are not improving the economy and probably never will. Effect of Barack Obamas Policies on the Economy (Among likely voters) FL OH PA Improving it now 25% 24% 21% Will improve it if given more time 30 30 35 Will never improve it 43 44 42 But the President has a clear advantage on empathy. A majority of voters in each of these three states say President Obama cares about their needs and problems, compared to four in 10 who say that about Romney. About half of voters in each state say Romney does not care about their needs and problems. Cares About Your Needs and Problems? (Among likely voters) Obama Romney FL OH PA FL OH PA 55% 55% 58% 42% 38% 39% 42 43 39 49 55 54

Yes No Campaign Ads

Sizeable majorities of voters in these states say they have seen television ads for both candidates. Voters who have seen ads for Barack Obama say most of those ads have attacked Mitt Romney rather than explained what the President stands for. Ditto for the Romney ads: majorities of voters say his ads mostly attack the President. Television Campaign Ads (Among likely voters) Barack Obama Ads Mitt Romney Ads FL OH PA FL OH PA 24% 28% 24% 20% 21% 18% 57 55 50 62 62 51 7 7 16 8 7 21

Yes/explained stands Yes/attacked opponent Havent seen ads

Even though most likely voters say they have seen ads for the presidential campaign, nearly eight in 10 say campaign ads will be of little importance in their vote for president, including more than half in each state who say television campaign ads will not be important at all in their vote. How Important Will TV Campaign Ads Be To Your Vote? (Among likely voters) FL OH PA Very 10% 8% 7% Somewhat 14 14 14 Not so 17 20 23 Not at all 58 58 56

The Economy: National and Statewide The economy is far and away the most important issue to likely voters in each of these battleground states; health care is a distant second. Voters arent especially optimistic about the outlook for the nations economy: Four in 10 voters in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania say the nations economy is getting worse. The Nations Economy is. (Among likely voters) FL OH PA Better 26% 26% 20% Worse 41 39 39 The same 32 34 39 Voters in Ohio are somewhat more optimistic about economic conditions in their own state. 33% of likely voters there think the economy in their state is getting better a more positive assessment than their views on the nations economy. In Pennsylvania and Florida, voters views of their states economy are predominantly negative, similar to their views of the national economy. Your States Economy is. (Among likely voters) FL OH PA Better 23% 33% 16% Worse 32 26 32 The same 43 40 49 The President recently reiterated his support for letting the Bush-era tax cuts expire for households earning more than $250,000 a year. Majorities of voters in each of these states support raising income taxes on this group in order to reduce the federal budget deficit. Raise Income Taxes on $250K Households (Among likely voters) FL OH PA Support 58% 60% 62% Oppose 37 37 34 The Presidents Job Approval Rating While the President leads Republican Mitt Romney in each of these states, his overall approval ratings are mixed. In Florida and Ohio, voters are evenly divided. In Pennsylvania, where Obama holds his biggest lead over Romney, 49% approve of Mr. Obamas job performance, while 46% disapprove. Pres. Obamas Job Rating (Among likely voters) FL OH PA 48% 48% 49% 48 48 46

Approve Disapprove

Releasing Personal Income Taxes When voters in these states are asked generally about presidential candidates releasing their tax returns, about half in each state say candidates should release several years of returns. About one in five thinks that just one or two years of tax returns are necessary, and another quarter doesnt think candidates should release any of their tax returns. How Many Years of Tax Returns Should Presidential Candidates Release? (Among likely voters) FL OH PA Several years 53% 51% 54% One or two years 19 18 17 Don't release 23 28 25 Senate Races in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania In all three states, the Democratic candidate for Senate leads the Republican. Bob Casey in Pennsylvania enjoys the largest lead (18 points), while the race is narrowest in Florida between incumbent Bill Nelson (47%) and Republican Connie Mack (40%). 2012 Senate Races (Among likely voters) Florida Nelson (D) Mack (R) Ohio Brown (D) Mandel (R) Pennsylvania Casey (D) Smith (R) Rating the Governors The governors of these three battleground states are not especially popular. Ohio Governor John Kasich receives the highest approval rating from his constituents, with 47%. Just 36% of Floridas likely voters approve of the job Governor Rick Scott of Florida is doing, and 38% of Pennsylvania voters approve of Governor Tom Corbett. Rating of Governors (Among likely voters) Approve Disapprove Florida - Scott 36% 52 Ohio - Kasich 47% 38 Pennsylvania - Corbett 38% 45 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------This poll was conducted by telephone from Quinnipiac Universitys interviewing facility July 24-30, 2012. The number of likely voters interviewed in each state is 1,177 in Florida, 1,193 in Ohio and 1,168 in Pennsylvania. In all three states, phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard land-line and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the sample in each state could be plus

47% 40 51% 39

55% 37

or minus three percentage points in Florida, Ohio and in Pennsylvania. The error for subgroups may be higher. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY/CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania July 24-30, 2012 >att< How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President - a lot, some, only a little, or none at all? ** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** FL OH PA 60% 54% 54% 25 31 33 11 10 11 4 4 2 0 0 0

A lot Some Only a little None at all DK/NA

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and Mitt Romney the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or Romney? (Table includes leaners) FL 51% 45 1 4 OH 50% 44 1 4 PA 53% 42 1 4

Obama Romney SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA

1b. (If prefer Obama q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? ** AMONG OBAMA VOTERS ** FL OH PA 89% 86% 84% 11 13 15 1 1

Mind made up Might change DK/NA

1c. (If prefer Romney q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election? ** AMONG ROMNEY VOTERS ** FL OH PA 90% 89% 90% 10 10 9 1 1

Mind made up Might change DK/NA

2. Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? ** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** FL OH PA 41% 40% 39% 42 43 47 14 15 11 3 3 3

Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

3. Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? ** TOTAL FL 50% 46 2 2 LIKELY OH 51% 45 2 2 VOTERS ** PA 53% 42 2 3

Favorable Unfavorable Hvn't hrd enough REFUSED

4a. (If prefer Obama q1) Would you describe your support for Barack Obama as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Mitt Romney? ** AMONG OBAMA VOTERS ** FL OH PA Strongly favor 65% 60% 59% Like/Reservations 24 31 33 Dislike other 10 9 7 DK/NA 1 1 1 4b. (If prefer Romney q1) Would you describe your support for Mitt Romney as strongly favoring him,or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support him because you dislike Barack Obama? ** AMONG ROMNEY VOTERS ** FL OH PA Strongly favor 49% 42% 41% Like/Reservations 29 35 37 Dislike other 19 22 22 DK/NA 3 1 1 5. If the election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bill Nelson(FL)/Sherrod Brown(OH)/Bob Casey Jr.(PA) the Democrat and Connie Mack(FL)/Josh Mandel(OH)/Tom Smith(PA) the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Nelson(FL)/Brown(OH)/Casey Jr.(PA) or Mack(FL)/Mandel(OH)/Smith(PA)? ** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** FL OH PA 47% 51% 55% 40 39 37 1 1 12 9 8

Democrat Republican SMONE ELSE(VOL) DK/NA

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6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Scott(FL)/John Kasich(OH)/Tom Corbett(PA) is handling his job as Governor? ** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** FL OH PA 36% 47% 38% 52 38 45 13 15 17

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? FL 48% 48 4 OH 48% 48 3 PA 49% 46 4

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

8. In deciding who you would like to see elected President this year, which one of the following issues will be most important to you, national security, the economy, health care, the budget deficit, taxes, immigration, or something else? FL 3% 52 22 9 5 2 5 2 OH 4% 48 20 12 5 2 7 2 PA 3% 54 20 8 6 1 7 2

National security The economy Health care The budget deficit Taxes Immigration Something else DK/NA

9. Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in this year's presidential election; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? FL 32% 19 49 1 OH 32% 21 47 PA 29% 22 49 -

More Less About the same DK/NA

10. Do you think the nation's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? FL 26% 41 32 1 OH 26% 39 34 1 PA 20% 39 39 2

Better Worse The same DK/NA

11. Do you think (Florida/Ohio/Pennsylvania)'s economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? FL 23% 32 43 2 OH 33% 26 40 1 PA 16% 32 49 3

Better Worse The same DK/NA

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12. Would you say that Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? ** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** FL OH PA 55% 55% 58% 42 43 39 3 2 3

Yes No DK/NA

13. Would you say that Mitt Romney cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? FL 42% 49 9 OH 38% 55 7 PA 39% 54 7

Yes No DK/NA

14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? FL 45% 47 9 OH 46% 45 8 PA 48% 44 7

Obama Romney DK/NA

15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on health care, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? FL 50% 42 8 OH 48% 42 9 PA 51% 41 8

Obama Romney DK/NA

16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on national security, Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? FL 48% 44 8 OH 50% 41 9 PA 50% 40 9

Obama Romney DK/NA

17. If Barack Obama is reelected, do you think his economic policies would help your personal financial situation, hurt your personal financial situation, or won't make a difference? FL 23% 38 36 3 OH 26% 38 34 1 PA 23% 37 37 3

Help Hurt No difference DK/NA

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18. If Mitt Romney is elected, do you think his economic policies would help your personal financial situation, hurt your personal financial situation, or won't make a difference? ** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** FL OH PA 31% 26% 26% 30 37 32 34 34 37 4 4 5

Help Hurt No difference DK/NA

19. From what you have read or heard, does Mitt Romney have the right kind of business experience to get the economy creating jobs again or is Romney's kind of business experience too focused on making profits? FL 42% 48 10 OH 41% 50 9 PA 42% 51 8

Right experience Focused on profits DK/NA

20. Which comes closest to your view of Barack Obama's economic policies, A) They are improving the economy now, and will probably continue to do so, OR B) They have not improved the economy yet, but will if given more time, OR C) They are not improving the economy and probably never will. FL 25% 30 43 1 1 OH 24% 30 44 1 PA 21% 35 42 1

Improving No, but will No, never will ECONOMY WORSE(VOL) DK/NA

21. Do you think presidential candidates should publicly release several years of tax returns, or is releasing only one or two years of tax returns necessary, or don't you think it is necessary for presidential candidates to release any of their tax returns? FL 53% 19 23 5 OH 51% 18 28 3 PA 54% 17 25 4

Several years One or two years Don't release DK/NA

22. In order to reduce the federal budget deficit, do you support or oppose raising income taxes on households making more than $250,000 per year? FL 58% 37 6 OH 60% 37 3 PA 62% 34 3

Support Oppose DK/NA

23. How important will television campaign ads be to your vote for President this year, very important, somewhat important, not so important, or not important at all? FL 10% 14 17 58 OH 8% 14 20 58 1 PA 7% 14 23 56 -

Very important Smwht important Not so important Not important at all DK/NA

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24. Have you seen any commercials on television for Mitt Romney, or not? IF YES: Did most of Mitt Romney's television commercials spend more time explaining what Mitt Romney stands for, or did they spend more time attacking Barack Obama? ** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** FL OH PA Yes/Explained 20% 21% 18% Yes/Attacked Obama 62 62 51 No/Haven't seen 8 7 21 DK/NA 10 9 10 25. Have you seen any commercials on television for Barack Obama, or not? IF YES: Did most of Barack Obama's television commercials spend more time explaining what Barack Obama stands for, or did they spend more time attacking Mitt Romney? FL 24% 57 7 12 OH 28% 55 7 10 PA 24% 50 16 10

Yes/Explained Yes/Attacked Romney No/Haven't seen DK/NA

Party identification (weighted) Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what? FL 27% 36 32 4 1 OH 27% 35 32 4 1 PA 32% 38 26 3 1

Republican Democrat Independent Other DK/NA

Sample sizes (unweighted) ** TOTAL LIKELY VOTERS ** FL OH PA Likely Voters 1177 1193 1168 MoE (+/-%) 3pts 3pts 3pts

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