India 4G and Cellular Market

Analysis and Forecasts

2012-2017 6th Edition
June 2012

By Basharat Ashai
Market Analyst, APAC & MEA

India 4G and Cellular Market Analysis ad Forecasts, 2012-2017 6th Edition

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India 4G and Cellular Market Analysis ad Forecasts, 2012-2017 6th Edition

Executive Summary
3G and mobile Trends
While both 3G and BWA spectrum were auctioned in Q2 2010 in India, 3G players have
moved ahead with their rollouts while the BWA license holders (excluding Bharti Airtel) are
lagging behind, still evaluating and trialing TD-LTE. In India, it has been over 18 months now
since 3G services were launched. Most metros and A cities already have 3G coverage. The
3G operators in India are rolling out 3G services in smaller cities, as well.
At the end of December 2011, Maravedis-Rethink estimates that India had 16 million active 3G
subscribers. We further estimate that India had 18 million active 3G subscribers at the end of
February 2012. The number is close to 2 per cent of the mobile subscriber base of 911.7
million (as reported by TRAI) at the end of Feb 2012.
We expect the active 3G subscriber base in India to reach 74 million by the end of 2013 and
371 million by the end of 2017. The market share growth will depend on how fast operators
can deploy 3G networks in their respective licensed circles, and how rapidly they can address
the demand in rural areas. The years 201215 will be the take-off period for 3G. Beyond 2015,
TD-LTE will have created a strong foothold in Indias 4G market.
TD-LTE
The holders of BWA spectrum are Reliance Industries Limited (RIL), Aircel, Tikona, Augere,
MTNL, BSNL and Bharti Airtel (which is also gradually acquiring Qualcomms licences).
In India, the major BWA spectrum holders like Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) and Aircel are
still conducting TD-LTE trials and testing equipment.
At the end of March 2012, Aircel was yet to finalize its choice of infrastructure suppliers for the
rollout of its TD-LTE network. According to unconfirmed reports, RIL has decided to make
Nagpur-Maharastra the hub for its 4G operations.Trials are set to begin for services at the RIL
complex in Jamnagar in Q2 2012.
The other state carrier, BSNL, is yet to make an official statement on whether to embrace TDLTE or not. For BSNL, WiMAX has been largely a failure. The operators plans to roll out
WiMAX using a franchisee model flopped over procedural, legal and other punitive charges.
The operator is currently focused on better rollout and consolidation in the 3G space and does
not want to stretch itself in the WiMAX domain. BSNL, as the only company which ended up
adopting the WiMAX platform in India, was also confronted with the possibility of isolation from
an interoperability and roaming perspective. BSNLs proposal for the surrender of BWA
spectrum means the end of WiMAX in India.
At the end of May 2012, Bharti Airtel had launched TD-LTE commercial networks in Kolkatta
and Bengaluru in India. Despite these first 4G launches, Maravedis-Rethink does not expect
huge uptake of TD-LTE services before the end of 2013.
We estimate India will reach 0.4 million TD-LTE subscribers by the end of 2012. Our estimates
are conservative, but take into account the fact that as of the end of May 2012, Bharti Airtel is
the only operator to have commercially launched TD-LTE (and only in two circles). Other BWA
players like RIL, Tikona and Aircel are expected to launch in the second half of 2012.
Maravedis-Rethink expects to see some traction on the TD-LTE front in India in the second
half of 2013. We forecast that the TD-LTE subscriber base in India will reach 67 million by the
end of 2017.
The absence of a TD-LTE device ecosystem remains the prime barrier to rapid growth.
Operators face the challenge of bringing an inexpensive multimode (2G/3G/TD-LTE) device to
the consumer. The current prices of TD-LTE devices (US$152 for a multimode dongle) are far
too high for the average Indian consumer. The fall of device prices to the US$50 price which
an Indian consumer can afford may take more than two years. If prices fall more slowly, TDLTE adoption in India may evolve even more slowly than expected.

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India 4G and Cellular Market Analysis ad Forecasts, 2012-2017 6th Edition

Device Ecosystem
Devices are critical to 3G service uptake. The Indian base of customers using 3G devices is
still very small. It will take several years to reach critical mass, even though mobile operators
like Bharti Airtel, TTSL, Aircel, BSNL, Aircel, Idea Cellular and others have launched a range of
devices on their 3G networks including tablets, USB dongles, smartphones and featurephones.
At the end of 2011, featurephones still dominated the total installed base of 3G devices in India
with an estimated 70% market share. USB dongles had 26% market share, smartphones and
tablets 3% and 1% respectively.
On the TD-LTE front, multimode devices that support 4G as well as 3G and 2G technologies
will enable TD-LTE to take advantage of the 3G and 2G ecosystems. Eventually, this will
create economies of scale to enable a broad choice of broadband wireless devices at
affordable price points for Indian consumers. However, as discussed above, it will be several
years before such devices are likely to become widely available. Although the multimode
dongle (2G/3G/TD-LTE) has already made an entry into the Indian market in Q2 2012, prices
are high, and smartphones are the stronger driver of new service uptake.
Mobile Data Traffic Evolution
According to its VNI Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast, Cisco expects mobile data traffic in
India to increase 114-fold by 2015, proceeding at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of
158%. The Cisco estimate includes mobile phones and tablets plus machine-to-machine
connected devices.
At the moment, India is primarily a voice and SMS market, but is moving towards data with the
release of 3G spectrum by the government. The data traffic on MTNLs 3G network is
increasing at 10% month-on-month. For IDEA Cellular, data usage is going up by more than
20% every month. The average monthly data usage per subscriber on IDEA Cellulars 3G
network is 235MB.
Data Traffic Offload
In India, the 3G license holders were awarded only 5MHz per operator (compared with 20MHz
in many other markets). The 3G operators are likely to experience increasing network
congestion as 3G services are rolled out. With this in mind, they are considering various
options for 3G data offload, notably femtocells and Wi-Fi offload.
Before that point, operators know there will be more and more traffic growth on their networks
in the days to come. They are actively seeking other solutions to the problem of 3G data surge,
especially while femtocells remain expensive, including data traffic offload to Wi-Fi networks.
For instance, in Q1 2011, Aircel launched 50,000 Wi-Fi hotspots around India and formed
partnerships with Wi-Fi players like O-Zone Networks and Tikona Digital Networks (TDN) to
offer public Wi-Fi services to its subscribers. Maravedis-Rethink expects more deployments of
2G and 3G mobile data offload to Wi-Fi within India in the coming quarters.
Indian operators like Tikona and Zylog providing broadband wireless services in the unlicensed
frequency bands (2.4 GHz and 5.8 GHz) are expected to play an important role in 3G data
offload. These operators aim to become partners for the various 3G players who will reach
capacity exhaustion in the coming quarters, providing the Wi-Fi infrastructure to carry excess
loads.

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India 4G and Cellular Market Analysis ad Forecasts, 2012-2017 6th Edition

Table of Contents
1.

INDIAN TELECOM SECTOR-AN OVERVIEW ............................................... 12

1.1 Total Telecom (wireline+wireless) Subscriber Base ................................................................. 12
1.2 Wireless Subscriber Market Share (Private Operators vs. Government Owned Operators) . 15
1.3 Internet Subscriber Base ............................................................................................................. 16
1.4 Broadband Access Technology Market Share-2011 ................................................................. 18
1.5 Network Technology Mandated Purchasing .............................................................................. 18

2. MOBILE BROADBAND MARKET UPDATE .......................................................... 19

2.1 3G in India ..................................................................................................................................... 19
2.1.1 Total 3G Subscriber Base and Operator Share ........................................................................ 19
2.1.2 3G Coverage ............................................................................................................................ 21
2.1.3 3G Device Ecosystem............................................................................................................... 21
2.1.4 3G Roaming Issues .................................................................................................................. 22
2.1.5 3G Data Traffic Evolution .......................................................................................................... 22
2.1.6 3G Data Offload ........................................................................................................................ 23
2.2 TD-LTE in India ......................................................................................................................... 24
2.2.1 TD-LTE Commercial Deployments and Trial Update ................................................................ 24
2.2.2 TD-LTE Device Ecosystem ....................................................................................................... 25
2.2.3 Backhaul: A priority for the LTE Network .................................................................................. 25
2.2.4 Operator Challenges ................................................................................................................. 26

3. SPECTRUM............................................................................................................ 27
3.1 Cancellation of 2G Spectrum ...................................................................................................... 27
3.2 3G Spectrum Crunch ................................................................................................................. 28
3.3 Importance of the 700MHZ BAND FOR INDIA ............................................................................ 29
3.4 700 MHz Auction Timing .............................................................................................................. 29

4. SERVICE PROVIDER ANALYSIS .......................................................................... 30

4.1 Aircel ............................................................................................................................................. 30
4.1.1 Operator Profile......................................................................................................................... 30
4.1.1.1 Operator Overview.......................................................................................................... 30
4.1.1.2 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)................................................................................. 31
4.1.1.3 Spectrum Details ............................................................................................................ 31
4.1.1.4 Investors ......................................................................................................................... 32
4.1.2 Market Strategy......................................................................................................................... 33
4.1.2.1 Services and Applications Offered .................................................................................. 33
4.1.2.2Cities and Markets ........................................................................................................... 33
4.1.2.3 Operator Objectives ........................................................................................................ 34
4.1.3 Network Strategy ...................................................................................................................... 34
4.1.3.1 Radio Access Network (RAN) ......................................................................................... 34
4.1.3.2 Device Ecosystem .......................................................................................................... 34
4.1.3.3 Backhaul Environment .................................................................................................... 35
4.1.4 Traffic Strategy.......................................................................................................................... 35
4.1.4.1 Offload Strategy .............................................................................................................. 35
4.1.5 Projections ................................................................................................................................ 35
4.1.5.1 Key Performance Indicator (KPI) Projections ................................................................. 35
4.1.6 Maravedis-Rethink Assessment ............................................................................................... 35
4.2 Augere ........................................................................................................................................... 37
4.2.1 Operator Profile......................................................................................................................... 37
4.2.1.1 Operator Overview.......................................................................................................... 37
4.2.1.2 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)................................................................................. 37
4.2.1.3 Spectrum Details ............................................................................................................ 38
4.2.1.4 Investors ......................................................................................................................... 38
4.2.2 Market Strategy......................................................................................................................... 39
4.2.2.1 Cities and Markets .......................................................................................................... 39
4.2.2.2 Operator Objectives ........................................................................................................ 39
4.2.3 Network Strategy ...................................................................................................................... 39
4.2.3.1 Radio Access Network (RAN) ......................................................................................... 39
4.2.3.2 Device Ecosystem .......................................................................................................... 40
4.2.3.3 Backhaul Environment .................................................................................................... 40
4.2.4 Traffic Strategy.......................................................................................................................... 40
4.2.4.1 Data Pricing Strategy ...................................................................................................... 40
4.2.4.2 Offload Strategy .............................................................................................................. 40
4.2.5 Projections ................................................................................................................................ 41
4.2.5.1 Key Performance Indicator (KPI) Projections ................................................................. 41
4.2.5.2 Network Projections ........................................................................................................ 41
4.2.6 Maravedis-Rethink Assessment ............................................................................................... 41
4.3 Bharti Airtel ................................................................................................................................... 44
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4.3.1 Operator Profile......................................................................................................................... 44

4.3.1.1 Operator Overview.......................................................................................................... 44
4.3.1.2 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)................................................................................. 44
4.3.1.3 Spectrum Details ............................................................................................................ 44
4.3.1.4 Investors ......................................................................................................................... 46
4.3.2 Market Strategy......................................................................................................................... 46
4.3.2.1 Services and Applications Offered .................................................................................. 46
4.3.2.2 Cities and Markets .......................................................................................................... 47
4.3.2.3 Operator Objectives ........................................................................................................ 47
4.3.3 Network Strategy ...................................................................................................................... 47
4.3.3.1 Radio Access Network (RAN) ......................................................................................... 47
4.3.3.2 Device Ecosystem .......................................................................................................... 47
4.3.3.3 Backhaul Environment .................................................................................................... 48
4.3.4 Traffic Strategy.......................................................................................................................... 48
4.3.4.1 Traffic Evolution .............................................................................................................. 48
4.3.4.2 Offload Strategy .............................................................................................................. 48
4.3.5 Projections ................................................................................................................................ 49
4.3.5.1 Key Performance Indicator (KPI) Projections ................................................................. 49
4.3.6 Maravedis-Rethink Assessment ............................................................................................... 49
4.4 BSNL ............................................................................................................................................. 51
4.4.1 Operator Profile......................................................................................................................... 51
4.4.1.1 Operator Overview.......................................................................................................... 51
4.4.1.2 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)................................................................................. 51
4.4.1.3 Spectrum Details ............................................................................................................ 51
4.4.1.4 Investors ......................................................................................................................... 51
4.4.2 Market Strategy......................................................................................................................... 52
4.4.2.1 Services and Applications Offered .................................................................................. 52
4.4.2.2 Cities and Markets .......................................................................................................... 52
4.4.2.3 Operator Objectives ........................................................................................................ 53
4.4.3 Network Strategy ...................................................................................................................... 53
4.4.3.1 Radio Access Network (RAN) ......................................................................................... 53
4.4.3.2 Device Ecosystem .......................................................................................................... 53
4.4.3.3 Backhaul Environment .................................................................................................... 54
4.4.4 Traffic Strategy.......................................................................................................................... 54
4.4.4.1 Data Pricing Strategy ...................................................................................................... 54
4.4.4.2 Offload Strategy .............................................................................................................. 54
4.4.5 Projections ................................................................................................................................ 54
4.4.5.1 Key Performance Indicator (KPI) Projections ................................................................. 54
4.4.5.2 Market Projections .......................................................................................................... 54
4.4.6 Maravedis-Rethink Assessment ............................................................................................... 54
4.5 IDEA Cellular ................................................................................................................................ 57
4.5.1 Operator Profile......................................................................................................................... 57
4.5.1.1 Operator Overview.......................................................................................................... 57
4.5.1.2 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)................................................................................. 57
4.5.1.3 Spectrum Details ............................................................................................................ 57
4.5.1.4 Investors ......................................................................................................................... 58
4.5.2 Market Strategy......................................................................................................................... 59
4.5.2.1 Services and Applications Offered .................................................................................. 59
4.5.2.2Cities and Markets ........................................................................................................... 59
4.5.2.3 Operator Objectives ........................................................................................................ 60
4.5.3 Network Strategy ...................................................................................................................... 60
4.5.3.1 Radio Access Network (RAN) ......................................................................................... 60
4.5.3.2 Device Ecosystem .......................................................................................................... 60
4.5.3.3 Backhaul Environment .................................................................................................... 61
4.5.4 Traffic Strategy.......................................................................................................................... 61
4.5.4.1 Traffic Evolution .............................................................................................................. 61
4.5.4.2 Offload Strategy .............................................................................................................. 61
4.5.5 Projections ................................................................................................................................ 61
4.5.5.1 Key Performance Indicator (KPI) Projections ................................................................. 61
4.5.5.2 Network Projections ........................................................................................................ 61
4.5.6 Maravedis-Rethink Assessment ............................................................................................... 61
4.6 MTNL ............................................................................................................................................. 64
4.6.1 Operator Profile......................................................................................................................... 64
4.6.1.1 Operator Overview.......................................................................................................... 64
4.6.1.2 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)................................................................................. 64
4.6.1.3 Spectrum Details ............................................................................................................ 64
4.6.1.4 Investors ......................................................................................................................... 65
4.6.2 Market Strategy......................................................................................................................... 65

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4.6.2.1 Services and Applications Offered .................................................................................. 65

4.6.2.2 Operator Objectives ........................................................................................................ 65
4.6.3 Network Strategy ...................................................................................................................... 66
4.6.3.1 Radio Access Network (RAN) ......................................................................................... 66
4.6.3.2 Device Ecosystem .......................................................................................................... 66
4.6.3.3 Backhaul Environment .................................................................................................... 66
4.6.4 Traffic Strategy.......................................................................................................................... 66
4.6.4.1 Traffic Evolution .............................................................................................................. 66
4.6.4.2 Offload Strategy .............................................................................................................. 67
4.6.5 Projections ................................................................................................................................ 67
4.6.5.1 Network Projections ........................................................................................................ 67
4.6.6 Maravedis-Rethink Assessment ............................................................................................... 67
4.7 Reliance Communications .......................................................................................................... 69
4.7.1 Operator Profile......................................................................................................................... 69
4.7.1.1 Operator Overview.......................................................................................................... 69
4.7.1.2 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)................................................................................. 69
4.7.1.3 Spectrum Details ............................................................................................................ 70
4.7.1.4 Investors ......................................................................................................................... 72
4.7.2 Market Strategy......................................................................................................................... 72
4.7.2.1 Services and Applications Offered .................................................................................. 72
4.7.2.2 Cities and Markets .......................................................................................................... 72
4.7.2.3 Operator Objectives ........................................................................................................ 72
4.7.3 Network Strategy ...................................................................................................................... 72
4.7.3.1 Radio Access Network (RAN) ......................................................................................... 72
4.7.3.2 Device Ecosystem .......................................................................................................... 73
4.7.3.3 Backhaul Environment .................................................................................................... 73
4.7.4 Traffic Strategy.......................................................................................................................... 74
4.7.4.1 Traffic Evolution .............................................................................................................. 74
4.7.4.2 Offload Strategy .............................................................................................................. 74
4.7.5 Projections ................................................................................................................................ 74
4.7.5.1 Key Performance Indicator (KPI) Projections ................................................................. 74
4.7.5.2 Network Projections ........................................................................................................ 74
4.7.6 Maravedis-Rethink Assessment ............................................................................................... 74
4.8 Reliance Industries Limited (RIL)................................................................................................ 76
4.8.1 Operator Profile......................................................................................................................... 76
4.8.1.1 Operator Overview.......................................................................................................... 76
4.8.1.2 Spectrum Details ............................................................................................................ 76
4.8.2 Market Strategy......................................................................................................................... 77
4.8.2.1 Services and Applications Offered .................................................................................. 77
4.8.2.2 Cities and Markets .......................................................................................................... 77
4.8.2.3 Operator Objectives ........................................................................................................ 77
4.8.3 Network Strategy ...................................................................................................................... 78
4.8.3.1 Radio Access Network (RAN) ......................................................................................... 78
4.8.3.2 Device Ecosystem .......................................................................................................... 78
4.8.4 Maravedis-Rethink Assessment ............................................................................................... 78
4.9 TATA Teleservices Limited ......................................................................................................... 80
4.9.1 Operator Profile......................................................................................................................... 80
4.9.1.1 Operator Overview.......................................................................................................... 80
4.9.1.2 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)................................................................................. 80
4.9.1.3 Spectrum Details ............................................................................................................ 80
4.9.1.4 Investors ......................................................................................................................... 81
4.9.2 Market Strategy......................................................................................................................... 82
4.9.2.1 Services and Applications Offered .................................................................................. 82
4.9.2.2 Cities and Markets .......................................................................................................... 82
4.9.2.3 Operator Objectives ........................................................................................................ 82
4.9.3 Network Strategy ...................................................................................................................... 82
4.9.3.1 Radio Access Network (RAN) ......................................................................................... 82
4.9.3.2 Device Ecosystem .......................................................................................................... 82
4.9.3.3 Backhaul Environment .................................................................................................... 82
4.9.4 Traffic Strategy.......................................................................................................................... 83
4.9.4.1 Traffic Evolution .............................................................................................................. 83
4.9.4.2 Offload Strategy .............................................................................................................. 83
4.9.5 Projections ................................................................................................................................ 83
4.9.5.1 Key Performance Indicator (KPI) Projections ................................................................. 83
4.9.6 Maravedis-Rethink Assessment ............................................................................................... 83
4.10 Tikona Digital Networks............................................................................................................. 85
4.10.1 Operator Profile....................................................................................................................... 85
4.10.1.1 Operator Overview........................................................................................................ 85

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4.10.1.2 Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) ............................................................................... 85

4.10.1.3 Spectrum Details .......................................................................................................... 85
4.10.1.4 Investors ....................................................................................................................... 86
4.10.2 Market Strategy....................................................................................................................... 86
4.10.2.1 Market Segment ........................................................................................................... 86
4.10.2.2 Cities and Markets ........................................................................................................ 87
4.10.3 Network Strategy .................................................................................................................... 87
4.10.3.1 Radio Access Network (RAN) ....................................................................................... 87
4.10.3.2 Backhaul Environment .................................................................................................. 87
4.10.4 Traffic Strategy........................................................................................................................ 87
4.10.4.1 Traffic Evolution ............................................................................................................ 87
4.10.4.2 Offload Strategy ............................................................................................................ 87
4.10.5 Projections .............................................................................................................................. 88
4.10.5.1 Key Performance Indicator (KPI) Projections................................................................ 88
4.10.5.2 Network Projections ...................................................................................................... 88
4.10.6 Maravedis-Rethink Assessment.............................................................................................. 88

5. 4G VENDOR ANALYSIS ........................................................................................ 91

5.1 Alcatel-Lucent .............................................................................................................................. 91
............................................................................................................................................................. 91
5.2 AMDOCS Limited.......................................................................................................................... 93
5.3 Elitecore ........................................................................................................................................ 94
5.4 Ericsson ........................................................................................................................................ 95
5.5 Huawei Technologies................................................................................................................... 98
5.6 NSN.............................................................................................................................................. 100
5.7 PointRed Telecom Limited ........................................................................................................ 103
5.8 Qualcomm................................................................................................................................... 104
5.9 Sequans Communications ........................................................................................................ 105
5.10 ZTE ............................................................................................................................................ 108

6. MARKET PROJECTIONS 2012- 2017 ................................................................. 111

6.1 3G Projections ............................................................................................................................ 111
6.1.1 3G Subscriber Projections ...................................................................................................... 111
6.1.2 3G Subscriber Market Share by Operator Projections ............................................................ 114
6.1.3 3G Device Breakdown by Form Factor Projections ................................................................ 114
6.1.4 3G BASE STATION and Device Market (in US$ million) Projections ..................................... 117
6.2 TD-LTE Projections .................................................................................................................... 119
6.2.1 TD-LTE Subscriber Projections .............................................................................................. 119
6.2.2 TD-LTE Subscriber Market Share by Operator Projections .................................................... 121
6.2.3 TD-LTE Device Breakdown by Form Factor Projections ......................................................... 122
6.2.4 TD-LTE BASE STATION and Device Market (in US$ million) Projections .............................. 123

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India 4G and Cellular Market Analysis ad Forecasts, 2012-2017 6th Edition

List of Figures and Tables

Figure1: Trends in Total Telecom(wireline+wireless) Subscriber Base and Teledensity in India ............. 12
Figure2: Trends in Overall Teledensity (Urban and Rural) in India .......................................................... 14
Figure3: Trends in Wireless Subscriber Base & Teledensity in India ........................................................ 14
Figure 4: Wireless Service Provider Market Share in India at the end of Feb 2012 .................................. 15
Figure 5: Wireless Service Providers Share in Net Additions during Feb 2012 ........................................ 16
Figure 6: Growth achieved by top ten ISPs during Q4 2011 ..................................................................... 17
Figure 7: Broadband Access in India at the end of 2011-Technologies & Market Share .......................... 18
Figure 8: 3G Subscriber Market Share by Operator as of December 2011 .............................................. 20
Figure 9: Aircel Corporate Structure ......................................................................................................... 31
Figure 10: Aircels Current Shareholders Breakdown ............................................................................... 32
Figure 11: Augere Shareholder Breakdown(As on March 31 st, 2012) ....................................................... 39
Figure 12: Bharti Airtel Shareholder Breakdown ....................................................................................... 46
Figure 13: Idea Cellular Shareholder Breakdown(As of December 31 st, 2011)......................................... 58
Figure 14: Idea Cellular 3G Coverage in India (As of December 31st, 2011) ........................................... 60
Figure 15: Reliance Communications Corporate Structure ....................................................................... 69
Figure 16: Reliance Communications 3G Spectrum Map ......................................................................... 71
Figure 17: Reliance Communications Shareholder Breakdown ................................................................ 72
Figure 18: Reliance Communications 3G device breakdown by the form factor ....................................... 73
Figure 19: Reliance Communications Backhaul Breakdown (As of Feb 2012) ......................................... 74
Figure 20: Tikona Digital Networks Shareholder Breakdown .................................................................... 86
Figure 21: 3G Subscriber Projections (in millions), 2012-2017 ............................................................... 114
Figure 22: 3G Subscriber Market Share by Operator Projections -2017 ................................................. 114
Figure 23: 3G Device Breakdown by Form Factor -2011 ....................................................................... 115
Figure 24: 3G Device Breakdown by Form Factor Projections -2017 ..................................................... 115
Figure 25: Cumulative 3G Base Stations Installed Projections (2012-2017)........................................... 118
Figure 26: 3G Device and Base Stations Market (in US$ millions) Projections, 2012-2017 ................... 119
Figure 27: TD-LTE Subscriber Projections (in millions), 2012-2017 ....................................................... 120
Figure 28: TD-LTE Subscriber Market Share by Operator Projections- 2012 ......................................... 121
Figure 29: TD-LTE Device Breakdown by Form Factor Projections -2012 ............................................ 122
Figure 30: TD-LTE Device Breakdown by Form Factor Projections -2017 ............................................ 122
Figure 31: Cumulative TD-LTE Base Stations Installed Projections (2013-2017) ................................... 123
Figure 32: TD-LTE Device and Base Stations Market (in US$ millions), 2013-2017 .............................. 124

Table 1: Wireline and the Wireless subscriber data at the end of February 2012 in India ........................ 15
Table 2: Internet Subscriber Base and Market Share of Top 10 ISPs in India-(As of December 2011) .... 16
Table 3: 3G License Holders, Circles &3G Subscribers (In millions) as of December 2011 ..................... 20
Table 4: Spectrum availability in 800 MHz band after cancellation of 122 Licenses ................................. 27
Table 5: Spectrum availability in 1800 MHz band after cancellation of 122 Licenses ............................... 27
Table 6: Aircel 3G Spectrum Details ......................................................................................................... 32
Table 7: Aircel BWA Spectrum Details ...................................................................................................... 32
Table 8: Key Highlights-Aircel ................................................................................................................... 36
Table 9: SWOT ANALYSIS-Aircel............................................................................................................. 36
Table 9: Key Highlights-Augere ................................................................................................................ 42
Table 10: SWOT ANALYSIS-Augere ........................................................................................................ 43
Table 11: Bharti Airtel KPIs in India .......................................................................................................... 44
Table 12: Bharti Airtel 3G Spectrum Details in India ................................................................................. 45
Table 13: Bharti Airtel BWA Spectrum Details in India .............................................................................. 45
Table 14: Airtel 2G, 3G and BWA Spectrum Summary ............................................................................. 45
Table 15: Key Highlights-Bharti Airtel ...................................................................................................... 49
Table 16: SWOT ANALYSIS-Bharti Airtel ................................................................................................. 50
Table 17: BSNLs WiMAX Tariff Plans ...................................................................................................... 52
Table 18: BSNL WiMAX Network: Base station sector breakdown by vendor (Q4 2011) ......................... 53
Table 19: Key Highlights- BSNL................................................................................................................ 55
Table 20: SWOT ANALYSIS-BSNL .......................................................................................................... 56
Table 21: IDEA Cellular KPIs .................................................................................................................... 57
Table 22: Idea Cellular 3G Spectrum Details ............................................................................................ 58
Table 23: Idea Cellular Promoters Holding and Top 5 Shareholders ....................................................... 59
Table 24: Key Highlights- IDEA Cellular ................................................................................................... 62
Table 25: SWOT ANALYSIS-IDEA Cellular .............................................................................................. 63
Table 26: BSNL/ MTNL 2G, 3G and BWA Spectrum Details .................................................................... 64
Table 27: Key Highlights- MTNL ............................................................................................................... 67
Table 28: SWOT ANALYSIS-MTNL .......................................................................................................... 68
Table 29: Reliance Communications KPIs ................................................................................................ 70

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India 4G and Cellular Market Analysis ad Forecasts, 2012-2017 6th Edition

Table 30: Reliance Communications 3G Spectrum Details ...................................................................... 70

Table 31: Key Highlights- Reliance Communications ............................................................................... 75
Table 32: SWOT ANALYSIS-Reliance Communications .......................................................................... 75
Table 33: RIL BWA Spectrum Details ....................................................................................................... 77
Table 34: Key Highlights-Reliance Industries Limited ............................................................................... 79
Table 35: SWOT ANALYSIS-Reliance Industries Limited (RIL) ................................................................ 79
Table 36: TATA Teleservices 3G Spectrum Details .................................................................................. 81
Table 37: Key Highlights-TTSL ................................................................................................................. 84
Table 38: SWOT ANALYSIS-TTSL ........................................................................................................... 84
Table 39: Tikona BWA Spectrum Details .................................................................................................. 86
Table 40: Key Highlights- Tikona Digital Networks ................................................................................... 88
Table 41: SWOT ANALYSIS-Tikona Digital Networks .............................................................................. 89
Table 42: Alcatel-Lucents LTE contracts worldwide as of April 2012 ....................................................... 92
Table 43: Alcatel-Lucent SWOT in India ................................................................................................. 92
Table 44: AMDOCS Limited SWOT in India ........................................................................................... 93
Table 45: Elitecore SWOT in India .......................................................................................................... 95
Table 46: LTE/EPC contracts worldwide as of March 2012 ...................................................................... 96
Table 47: Ericsson SWOT in India .......................................................................................................... 97
Table 48: Huawei LTE Deals as of April 2012........................................................................................... 99
Table 49: Huawei SWOT in India .......................................................................................................... 100
Table 50: NSNs LTE deals as of April 2012 ............................................................................................ 101
Table 51: NSN SWOT in India .............................................................................................................. 102
Table 52: PointRed Telecom Limited SWOT in India ............................................................................ 103
Table 53: Qualcomm SWOT in India .................................................................................................... 105
Table 54: Sequans Communications SWOT in India ............................................................................ 106
Table 55: ZTE India-SWOT .................................................................................................................... 108
Table 56: ZTE LTE Contracts as of April 2012........................................................................................ 109
Table 57: Total wireless (2G+3G) subscriber base and active 3G subscriber base as of December 2011
of the various mobile operators in India ........................................................................................... 112
Table 58: 3G Subscriber Projections (in millions), 2012-2017 ................................................................ 113
Table 59: 3G Base Station Market (in US$ millions) Projections, 2012-2017 ......................................... 117
Table 60: 3G Device Market (in US$ millions) Projections, 2012-2017................................................... 117
Table 61: Cumulative and Yearly 3G Device and Base Station Market (in US$ millions) Projections, 20122017 ................................................................................................................................................. 118
Table 62: TD-LTE Base Station Market (in US$ millions) Projections, 2013-2017 ................................. 123
Table 63: TD-LTEDevice Market (in US$ millions) Projections, 2013-2017 ............................................ 123
Table 64: Cumulative and Yearly TD-LTE Device and Base Station Market (in US$ millions) Projections,
2013-2017........................................................................................................................................ 124

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India 4G and Cellular Market Analysis ad Forecasts, 2012-2017 6th Edition

Some Questions Answered by This Report

What is the current status of 3G in India? Why has 3G technology adoption been
slower than anticipated?

How many active 3G subscribers did India have at the end of 2011? What is the 3G
subscriber market share by operator as of Q4 2011?

What are the 3G subscriber market share projections by operator in India by the end of
2012?

What are the various opportunites presented by 3G in India?

What is the backhaul strategy for 3G and emerging 4G operators in India?

What kind of devices are being offering on various 3G networks in India? Who are the
vendors and which models have been launched?

Which new 3G devices are expected to be launched in India in the coming quarters?

What is the current 3G device breakdown by the form factor, USB dongles vs tablets
vs smartphones vs featurephones?

How is the 3G device breakdown by form factor expected to change by the end of
2017?

Where do the 3G operators stand today in terms of network coverage in India?

What are the various challenges 3G operators face in India?

How has the data traffic grown on 3G operator networks so far?

What are the most traffic consuming applications in India?

Which are the vendors bagging the most 3G infrastructure contracts in India?

What is the monthly data usage per subscriber per month on various 3G operator
networks'?

How is 3G mobile traffic expected to evolve in the coming years in India?

What are the various options that 3G operators are exploring for the 3G data offload?
Which traffic offload options suit better for the Indian operators and why?

Which operators have commercially launched TD-LTE in India? What are their 4G TDLTE plans going forward?

What are the prospects for TD-LTE? How big will the market be and when will it take
off?

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Maravedis Inc

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