Test 1 Question 1 (10 marks)

MATB133 - Applied Statistics for Engineers 3 November 2011

45 minutes

If P(A) = 0.4 , P(B) = 0.3 and P(AB) = 0.1, determine the following probabilities (a) (b) (c) (d) (e) Represent these data on a Venn diagram P(A) P(A B) P[(AB)] P(AB)

Question 2 (10 marks) In a bolt factory, machine A, B and C respectively produce 20%, 30% and 50% of the total output. Of their respective outputs, 5%, 3% and 2% are defective. Let X is a number of defective bolts. A bolt is selected at random (a) (b) (c) Draw a tree diagram to represent this information. What is the probability that it is defective, P(D)? Given that it is defective, what is the probability that it was made by machine A?

Question 3 (10 marks) (a) Batches that consist of 50 coil springs from a production process are checked for conformance to customer requirements. The mean number of nonconforming coil springs in a batch is 5. Assume that the number of nonconforming springs in a batch, denoted as X, is a binomial random variable. (i) What are n and p? (ii) What is P(X 2 )? (iii) What is P(X < 49)? (b) The probability is 0.6 that a calibration of a transducer in an electronic instrument conforms to specifications for the measurement system. Assume the calibration attempts are independent. What is the probability that the first calibration meet the specifications for the measurement system are exactly five attempts?

MARKING SCHEME
Question 1 (9 marks) If P(A) = 0.4 , P(B) = 0.3 and P(AB) = 0.1, determine the following probabilities

(a)
0.5 0.2 A B 0.1 0.2 S 3

(b) (c) (d)

P(A) = 0. 6

1 1

P(A B) = P(B) P(AB) = 0.3 0.2 = 0.2 P[(AB)] = 1 P(AB) = 1- [P(A) + P(B) P(A B) ] =1 [0.4+0.3-0.2] = 0.5 2

(e)

P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B) = 0.6 + 0.3 0.1 = 0.8 OR P(A B) = P(A) + P(A B) = 0.6 + 0.2 = 0.8 1

Question 2 (12 marks) (a)

0.20

0.30

0.50

P(A)
0.0 3 0.0 5 5 0.9

P(B)
0.0 2 7 0.9

P(C)
98 0.

P(D/A)

P(D/A)

P(D/B)

P(D/B)

P(D/C)

P(D/C)

(b)

P( D) = P( A) P ( D A ) + P ( B ) P ( D B ) + P (C ) P ( D C )
(c)

= ( 0.2 ) ( 0.05 ) + ( 0.3 ) ( 0.03 ) + ( 0.5 ) ( 0.02 ) = 0.029

P ( A D) =

P ( A) P ( D A) ( 0.2) ( 0.05) = = 0.3448 P( D) 0.029

Question 3 (10 marks) (i) (ii) What are n and p? n= 50 What is P(X 2 )? P(X 2) = P(X=0)+ P(X=1)+ P(X=2) = 50C0 (0.1)0(0.9)50 +50C1 (0.1)1(0.9)49 +50C2 (0.1)2(0.9)48 = 5.15x10-3 +0.0286 +0.0779= 0.1117 (iii) What is P(X < 49)? P (X < 49) = 1 P(X=50) = 1 4.5x10-48 = 1 , p = 0.1