Academic Extract Problem Definition Introduction Casualties and damages caused by natural disasters, while fluctuating strongly have

been increasing in recent decades (Ebert and Kerle, 2008). Climate change as part of these natural disasters is already modifying life on earth because around the globe, seasons are shifting, temperatures are climbing and sea levels are rising (IPCC, 2007). The worlds present situation in its entirety can be seen in the review of the observed impact of climate change on the natural and human environment as presented by the working group II of the fourth assessment report (IPCC, 2007) which shows that with regard to changes in snow, ice and frozen ground (including permafrost), there is high confidence that natural systems are affected. Examples include; enlargement and increased numbers of glacial lakes as can be seen in the size of Lake Tsho Rolpca of the Nepal, which was observed to have increased from 0.23km2 to 1.65 km2 within 1957 and 1997 leading to threats of devastating glacial lake outburst floods (Agrawala et al., 2005). Another example is the increasing ground instability in permafrost regions, and rock avalanches in mountain regions as can be seen in the increased rock fall caused by the 2003 summer heat wave resulting in the active layer deepening of the Swiss Alps from 30% to 100% between June and October 2003 (Gruber et al., 2004). Based on growing evidence, there is also high confidence that negative effects on the hydrological systems are occurring. This include increased runoff and earlier spring peak discharge in many glacier-and snow-fed rivers as is obvious in the arctic drainage basin of Ob, Lena and Mackenzie where an annual increase of 5%, winter increase of 25% to 90% and winter base flow due to increase melting and thawing permafrost was recorded for the periods within 1935 and 1999 (Serreze et al., 2002). There is also warming of lakes and rivers in many regions, with effects on thermal structure and water quality, as can be seen in the increasing temperatures of Lakes like; Victoria, Tanganyika and Malawi having warmed up from 0.2 to 0.7oc since the early 1900s affecting the thermal stratification and internal hydrodynamics of the Lakes and altering their phytoplankton dynamics and primary productivity (Vollmer et al., 2005).

More evidences as also reported by the fourth assessment report of the IPCC have shown that recent climate changes and climate variations are beginning to have effects on many other natural and human systems. Examples include; increased incidence of heat waves, killing thousands of people all over the world as can be seen in August 2003 heat wave episode in Europe with reported excess mortality in the range of 35,000 (Michelozzi et al., 2004; Conti et al., 2005; Grize et al., 2005; Johnson et al., 2005). Other indications include; receding shoreline due to coastal erosion resulting in the salinization of freshwater reservoir, loss of biodiversity and destruction of infrastructure as reported in studies carried out by Penland et al., (2005) where they discovered a shoreline retreat of 0.61 m/yr between 1855-2002 in Louisiana, USA and that of Ross et al., (2000) where it was discovered that grassy marshes are replacing mangrove due to sea-level rise and water table changes between 1940 - 1994 in South-east Florida, USA. A clearer view of the quagmire we have found ourselves is locally evident in Nigeria on the Lagos coastline, where climate change (through sea level rise and extreme events as well as anthropogenic activities) is impacting on the biophysical and socioeconomic environment. Obvious examples include, flooding as a result of storm surges as can be seen in the series of extreme events being experienced on the coastline, especially that which occurred between 16th and 17th of August, 1995, when a series of violent swells in the form of surges were unleashed on the whole of Victoria (Bar) Beach, Lagos. Another is the erosion caused by the ship wrecks on the Lekki and Alpha beach, Lagos threatening the structures and multi-million naira Jakande Estate and Chevrons Twin Lakes Estate (Plate 1)

Plate 1: Coastal Erosion on the Alpha (2011), Lekki (2011) and Bar Beach (1995)

There is also the inundation of the Lagos coastline as a result of sea level rise as is presently being experienced in some parts and is predicted to get worse putting about two million Lagos residents at risk (Adetayo, 2011). Another obvious impact is the salinisation of the coastal aquifers as reported in a study carried out by Adewuyi et al (2010) where it was noted that groundwater aquifers surrounding the Lagos coast (especially in settlements like Adeniji Adele, CMS and Victoria Island) presently contain impermissible conductivity value of above 1000s/cm as compared to 126s/cm and 208s/cm for Ikeja and Ikotun respectively. This was basically attributed to the intrusion of salt water into the aquifer from the Atlantic Ocean. Since global sea-level rise is likely to persist due to continuing thermal expansion of sea water, melting of land-based glaciers and melting of ice-sheets in Antarctica and Greenland (IPCC, 2001), then the presently observed impacts are likely to continue and in some cases escalate with human activities serving as catalyst. It is however instructive to note that although natural hazards will continue to occur, their capacity to become disasters or merely manageable events depend on many factors, among which is the magnitude of the hazard, the vulnerability of people and their communities, the built environment and political systems (Dwyer et al, 2004). Thus, in the light of increasing frequency of disasters and continuing environmental degradation, measuring vulnerability is a crucial task if science is to help support the transition to a more sustainable world (Kasperson et al, 2005). This study therefore provides the important information of the vulnerability of Lagos coastline to climate change using the Badagry section as a case study.

Aim and Objectives This study is aimed at assessing the vulnerability of the coastline of Badagry, to climate change. To achieve this aim, the following specific objectives were designed: 1. identifying and characterizing the morphological vulnerability of the coastline; 2. executing a shoreline change analysis for the study area;

3. examining the socio-economic vulnerability of the coastline; 4. calculating the coastal vulnerability indices of the study area. Significance of the Study Climate change impacts according to the studies carried out by DFID (2009) will be worse for the vulnerable groups such as the poor, old, women, and children and for those that depend on primary production for their livelihoods. This is expected because the vulnerable are less able to fend for themselves and are less able to adapt to changing circumstances. In terms of the spatial distribution of impacts in Nigeria, it was also indicated that those in the far North and those adjacent to the coastline are far more at risk.

The choice of this study area is therefore premised on the above stated facts since the study area located on the Atlantic coast is mainly made up of rural settlements with majority of the inhabitants engaged in primary production. The study area is also located in Lagos which has large number of people living in slums with an estimated poverty level of 70 per cent making the area one of the poorest of the worlds largest cities (Ministry of Economic Planning and Budget, 2004).

Since disaster management can only be as good as the available spatial information for decision makers, assessments of vulnerability carried out holistically, can provide important guide to the planning process and to decisions on resource allocation at various levels, and can help to raise public awareness of risks in the forefront of an expected disaster (UNEP, 2002). This implies that knowledge about present and future hazards, elements at risk and different types of vulnerability are the placedependent variables that need to be assessed in order to mitigate disaster risk (Taubenbock, et al, 2007).

The study when completed can be used by government at the state and federal level to prepare coping or adaptation programmes for ameliorating the impact of climate change. This is because vulnerability assessment provides a starting point for the determination of effective means of promoting remedial action to limit impacts by promoting coping strategies and facilitating adaptation (Kelly, 2000). The knowledge of those at potential risk to harm in the study area with the relentless climate change which would be provided by this study would also discourage actions and inactions which contribute to global warming.

Methodology The methodology designed for this study is based on its objective which is to discover areas susceptibility to the effects of climate change through sea level rise. The designed methodological framework also threads the same line as the adopted conceptual framework (Coastal Vulnerability Assessment Framework) which underlines the fact that, the specific vulnerabilities and coping capacities at the different levels of a system have to be examined with regards to the natural and socioeconomic systems which are always in dynamic interactions. The designed methodological framework is presented below:

Objective of Coastal Vulnerability Assessment

Data Acquisition

Spatial Data High resolution satellite imagery Topographic maps POI information using GPS Ground truth information

Non-Spatial Data Social and economic questionnaire Literature reviews Tidal gauge records Field observation survey using

Data Processing

Shoreline change detection using overlay analysis of 1985 and 2006 imageries.

Slope and DEM derivation

Land use information and morphological indices extraction

Socio-economic characteristics of the inhabitants of the coast using questionnaires

Data Analysis

Development of the Coastal Vulnerability Index Map

Combining the variables to derive the (CVI) [CVI = 4g+4s+2c+t+sos]

Assigning of weighted values to the coastal variables

Integrating the spatial and non spatial data for classifying the coastline into vulnerability classes.

Fig. 1:

Methodological Framework

Data Acquired and Source This study made use of high resolution imagery (Geo-Eye) and medium resolution imagery (Landsat ETM) of Lagos state for the year 2000 and 2006. Topographic maps for Badagry were also acquired. Demographic information pertaining to the inhabitants of the study area was also acquired from census figures, demographic and social surveys and questionnaires and interviews (table 1). Table 1: Shows the detailed characteristics of the data used for the study
S/N 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Data Type Geo-eye Image Landsat Image Administrative and local government Map of Nigeria. Sea level rise along the coast of Lagos Topographic map of Lagos Population Figures of Lagos Social statistics of Lagos Tidal gauge Date of Production 2000 and 2006 2009 Source Lagos state Ministry Landcover.org Badagry Local Govt NIOMR 1985 2006 2008 2006 Federal office of surveys NPC NBS Hydrographic Office 1:25,000 Scale 30 meter

Software Used Basically three (3) types of software were used for this study, viz; ArcGIS this was used for displaying and subsequent processing and enhancement of the image. It was also used for the carving out the study area (Badagry region) from the whole Lagos state imagery using both the admin and local government maps. Idrisi32 This was used for the development of land use / land cover classes and subsequently for change detection analysis of the study area. Microsoft word was used basically for the presentation of the research.

Data Conversion The topographic sheets acquired from the Federal office of survey were scanned and imported into ArcGIS in preparation for digitization. Landsat imageries for bands 7, 4 and 2 for the year 2006 were also downloaded from www.landcover.org and were composed using Idrisi remote sensing software. The composed image was also imported into ArcGIS in preparation for digitizing. The records of tidal gauges

acquired from the hydrographic office were summed up and averages for the different coastal segments were calculated. The socio-economic data pertaining to the inhabitants of the coast were also collated and the results attached to specific segments of the coast in preparation for analysis. The high resolution imagery acquired from the Lagos state ministry of Physical planning was also digitized using ArcGIS.

Data Analysis The coastal vulnerability index was developed through the processing of the acquired data relating to the different coastal vulnerability variables which include the morphology, coastal slope, tidal range, shoreline change and socio-economic character of the inhabitants of study area. Weighted values of all the seven variables are used to calculate the CVI for the coast through the process of addition using the following formula (Adapted from Rao, et al 2009). CVI = 4m + 4s + 2c + t + sos.Formula 1 CVI = Coastal Vulnerability Index m = Morphology s = Slope c = Change in shoreline s = Tidal range sos = Socio-economic characteristics (occupation, settlement and housing characteristics) 4 & 2 = Weighted values assigned to the coastal variables to depict their relevance. The relevance of these variables and justification for their weightings are explained below:

Morphology of the study area (m) Morphology of the coast plays an important role in determining the impact of sealevel rise. Landforms and the material that compose them reflect their relative responses to sea-level rise since every landform offers certain degree of resistance to erosion. While the rocky cliffs and wave cut benches offer maximum resistance and therefore very less vulnerable, the soft sandy and muddy forms such as dunes, mudflats, mangroves, etc., that offer least resistance, on the other hand, are extremely vulnerable to sea-level rise. This variable was assigned a weighted value of 4 to show its significance as the morphology of a coast determines to a large extent how vulnerable it can be to sea level rise (formula 1).

The Badagry coast like the entire coast of Lagos is predominated by depositional landforms such as beach ridge complexes, barriers, lagoons, estuaries, and tidal inlets except in a few localities. The coastline digitized as a line feature was divided into equal segments of 20 which were then overlaid on high resolution satellite imagery supported with the topographic map of the same area. The characteristic of each segment extracted through this process was recorded in the attribute table of the coastline using classes shown in table 2 adapted from Rao, et al (2009). Table 2: Shows the Morphology Classification Scheme
Variables Morphology Length [Km (%)] Very low (1) Rocky coasts Low (2) Indented Coasts Moderate (3) Beach ridges/ dunes high High (4) Estuaries Very high (5) Low Beaches

Considering the nature of landforms qualitatively, the entire Badagry coast was segmented into five vulnerability classes as per the classification scheme. Following this scheme, a vulnerability rank number is assigned to each segment of the coast (indicating the vulnerability level in terms of the morphology of the coast).

Coastal slope (s) A major factor to be considered along with the coastal morphology in estimating the impact of sea-level rise on a given coast is the slope. This is because on a steep coast, the impact of sea-level rise would be insignificant contrary to a gently sloping coast where any rise in sea level would inundate large extents of land. Based on this fact, this variable was also assigned a weighted value of 4 to reflect its importance.

For this study, the contour lines and spot heights extracted from the 1:25,000 topographic sheet of Badagry were used to prepare a slope map for the coast through triangulated irregular network (TIN) method in 3-D Analyst module of ArcGIS. The values derived were then used to characterize each segment of the coastline using classes (table 3) developed by Pendleton et al (2004).

The entire range of slopes was categorized into five rank classes from 1 to 5 keeping in view the fact that the higher the slope value, the lower the vulnerability of the coast depending on the intensity of the surge.

Table 3: Shows the Coastal Slope Classification Scheme

Variables Slope (%) Length [Km (%)] Very low (1) 5.00 Low (2) 4.00 Moderate (3) 3.0 High (4) 2.0 Very high (5) 1.0

Shoreline change (c) The change in the position of the shoreline shows the level of erosion or accretion that has occurred within a given time. For this study, the shift in shoreline during the 21year period from 1985 to 2006 was analysed using Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) which revealed areas experiencing erosion and accretion. The rate of erosion or accretion was used to classify the shoreline into five vulnerability classes ranging

from 1 to 5. Due to the relative influence this variable has on the vulnerability level of a coast, a weighted value of 2 was assigned to it (formula 1). Table 4: Shows the Shoreline-Change Classification Scheme
Variables Shoreline change (m/year) Impact Length [Km (%)] Very low (1)
2.026 to 0.870 High accretion

Low (2)
0.869 to 0.291 Low accretion

Moderate (3)
0.290 to -0.289 No change

High (4)
-0.290 to 0.870 Low erosion

Very high (5)

-0.870 to -2.026 High erosion

Tidal Range and Socio-economic character The two remaining coastal variables considered are the spring tidal range (t) and socio-economic characteristic (sos) variables. They were also ranked (just like the other variables) from 1 to 5 and represented in classification schemes as shown below (table 5-8).

As for the mean spring tidal range (the average of spring high and low tides), there is only one hydrographic station covering the study area thus, the mean spring tide range was calculated using records from this station (Apapa) and represented in the table below (table 3.5). Table 5: Shows the Tidal Range Classification Scheme
Variables Mean spring tide range (m) Length [Km (%)] Very low (1) <1.0 Low (2) 1.02.0 Moderate (3) 2.04.0 High (4) 4.06.0 Very high (5) >6.0

With regards to the socio-economic characteristic of the inhabitants of the coast, considered are; the settlement, occupation and building characteristics of the study area. These were extracted from census records and social and demographic statistics in conjunction with questionnaires administered and interviews conducted with the inhabitants of the coast. A stratified sampling technique was adopted where the study area was divided into five equal parts with one settlement/community chosen within each division. The sampled communities include; Oglogbo/Pengbo, Gbettrome,

Asakpo, Gberefu and Yovoyan where in all a total of fifty (50) respondents were randomly chosen. Table 6: Shows the Occupational Classification Scheme
Variables Occupation Length(Km) Very low (1) Civil servants/Security officers Low (2) Transporters Moderate (3) Traders and Artisans High (4) Tourism service providers Very high (5) Fishermen and farmers

Table 7: Shows the Settlement Type Classification Scheme

Variables Housing type Length (Km) Very low (1) No Settlement Low (2) Village Moderate (3) Small Town High (4) Large Town Very high (5) City

Table 8: Shows the Housing Type Classification Scheme

Variables Housing type Length (Km) Very low (1) Brick Low (2) Mud Moderate (3) Brick and palm frond High (4) Palm fronds Very high (5) Clothing/Zinc

As such, the entire Badagry coast was divided into five vulnerability classes (very low, low, moderate, high, and very high) for each of the physical and socio-economic variables (table 9). The seven (7) variables were then combined in GIS using the Spatial Join option in the Overlay module of ArcTool menu to derive a coastal vulnerability index (CVI) for the various segments of coast.

Table 9: Total Coastal Vulnerability Classes

Variables Morphology Coastal slope Shoreline change (m/year) Mean spring tide range (m) Socio-economic characteristics Settlement type Occupation Housing characteristics Coastal Vulnerability Rank Very low (1) Low (2) Moderate (3) High (4) Very high (5)

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