Government of Jamaica, Second National Communication of Jamaica To The United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change, 6-2011

GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA
THE SECOND NATIONAL COMMUNICATION OF JAMAICA TO THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
JUNE 2011
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Jamaica acceded to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 1995. SignatoriestotheConventionarerequestedtoreportperiodicallyontheirinventoryofanthropogenic emissionsandremovalsofgreenhousegases(GHGs)notcontrolledbytheMontrealProtocolaswellas detailsoftheactivitiesthePartyhasundertakentoimplementtheConvention. Jamaica,whichisanonAnnexIPartytotheConvention,submitteditsInitialNationalCommunication (INC)inNovember2000.TheINCincludedaGHGinventoryforthereferenceyear1994incompliance withArticles4and12oftheUNFCCCandpreparedinaccordancewiththeIntergovernmentalPanelon ClimateChange(IPCC)1996RevisedGuidelinesforPreparationofNationalGHGInventories.TheINCalso includedvulnerabilityandadaptationassessmentsfortheagriculture,water,andcoastalzonesectors. ThisSecondNational Communication(SNC)includes GHG inventoriesfor200005(andreferenceyear 2000), prepared using the updated 2006 IPCC inventory guidelines. The SNC also assesses climate changeimpactsforthekeysectorsofhealth,humansettlements,andtourism,inadditiontorevisiting agriculture,water,and coastal zones, forthe years2015,2030, and2050.Althoughnotrequiredasa nonAnnexIParty,JamaicasSNCalsoincludesanassessmentofpotentialmitigationoptionstoreduce GHGemissionsover2009to2030thatwill,justasimportantly,improveenergyefficiency.Finally,other activitiesinsupportoftheConvention,suchasawarenessraising,areviewofthenationalsystematic observationsystems,andatechnologyneedsassessment,arealsodescribed.
The SNC was undertaken by the Ministry of Local Government and the Environment and Disaster ManagementUnitonbehalfoftheMeteorologicalServiceofJamaica,whichhastheresponsibilityfor thecompletionandsubmissionoftheSNC. Nationalcircumstances JamaicaisaSmallIslandDeveloping(SID)State.AnislandnationintheCaribbeanSea,itispartofthe group of islands known as the Greater Antilles that also includes Cuba, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. JamaicawasdiscoveredbyChristopherColumbusin1494.Atthattime,itwasinhabitedbyArawakan speakingTainoIndians,whohadnameditXaymaca,whichmeanstheLandofWoodandWaterorthe LandofSprings.UponpossessionbytheSpanish,itbecameknownasSantiagoandthenJamaicaafter itwaspossessedbytheBritishin1655.Jamaicaachievedfullindependencein1962. JamaicaisthethirdmostpopulousAnglophonecountryintheAmericasaftertheUSAandCanada.As of 2007, Jamaica had a resident population of 2,682,100 (representing end of year population). Life expectancyhasaveraged72.1yearssince2000butistrendingup.Improvedhealthcareisakeyfactor. Althoughadevelopingcountry,Jamaicahasmadeconsiderablestridesoverthepastthreedecadeswith regardtohealthcare,especiallysoforwomen.Theliteracyrateishighin2007itwasestimatedtobe 86 percent, above the world average of 82 percent. The incidence of poverty has also undergone significantdecline,fallingfrom18.7percentin2000to14.3percentin2006.Thereisaclearrelationship between rural locations and higher incidences of poverty. Over 60 percent of the poor are in rural areas,comparedwithanaverage1420percentintheKingstonMetropolitanArea. Approximately 52 percent of the population lived in urban areas in 2001 an increase of almost 12 percent since 1970. Most Jamaicans (78 percent) live in separate/detached housing. As of 2006,
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approximately 68 percent of homes had piped water, 65 percent had flush toilets and 33 percent pit latrines,and90percenthadelectricallighting. Jamaicaoperatesamixedeconomic system;wherethere areprominentstateenterprisesalongsidea viableprivatesector.ThemajorsectorsoftheJamaicaneconomyarebauxite,tourism,agriculture,and manufacturing,withtourismandminingbeingtheleadingforeignexchangeearners.Theeconomyhad anannualsize(intermsofGDP)ofapproximatelyJ$250billionin2007(Figure1.3).From200007,the countryaveragedrealgrowthof1.5percentperannum,rangingfrom0.8percentin2000to2.5per centin2006(Figure1.3). The economy has become more service driven over time presently (2007) 34.2 percent of the economy can be seen asthe goods sector and72.9 percent as theservicesector, while in 1992, 42.6 percent of the economy was goods and 39.7 percent in 2000. The national unemployment rate averages 11.4 percent and has been showing a marginal downward trend since 2000. Female unemployment is markedly higher than male unemployment at 14.5 percent vs. 6.2 percent respectivelyin2007. Geographyandclimate Atapproximately2000squaremiles,JamaicaisthethirdlargestislandintheCaribbean.Theislandis approximately230kmlong,orientedinaneastwestaxisandisapproximately80kmatitswidestpoint. Landareais10,990sq.Km,ofwhichabout160sq.kmiswaterandthecoastlineisapproximately1,022 km.Theterrainischaracterisedbyamountainousregionalongtheislandseastwestaxisandnarrow coastal plains. The highest elevation is Blue Mountain Peak which is 2,256 m above sea level. Most major towns and cities are located on the coast, with its chief towns and cities being the capital Kingston,MontegoBay(itssecondcity),Mandeville,SpanishTown,OchoRios,andPtAntonio.Onlytwo majorparishcapitalsarelocatedinland. Thelocalclimateisdeemedtropical,withcoastalareashavinghotandhumidweatherandinlandareas having a more temperate climate. Jamaica lies in the hurricane belt of the Atlantic Ocean which historicallyhasbeenevidencedbystrongtropicalhurricanes.Themorerecentones,HurricanesDean (2007)andIvan(2004),havecreatedhugeinfrastructuraldamagesandsomelossoflife. Jamaicas freshwater resources come from surface sources (rivers and streams) and underground sources (wells and springs) and rainwater harvesting. Groundwater supplies most water demands (approximately80percentofproduction)andrepresents84percentoftheislandsexploitablewater. Theislandswatersourcesareassociatedwithmajorrockformationsandtheirinterrelationships. TheNationalGreenhouseInventory FortheINC,thebaseyearforthenationalGHGinventorywas1994.FortheSNC,thebaseyearis2000, and the national inventory was prepared for 200005 using the IPCC 2006 Guidelines and IPCC good practice guidance manuals. The gases included in the inventory are the direct GHGs: namely, carbon dioxide(CO2),methane(CH4),nitrousoxide(N2O),Hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs),perfluorocarbons(PFCs) and sulphur hexafluoride (SF6), and the indirect GHGs: nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOC),carbonmonoxide(CO),nitrogenoxide(NOx),andsulphurdioxide(SO2).
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GHGemissionswereestimatedforsourcesandsinksinfoursectors: Energy; IndustrialProcessesandProductUse; Agriculture,ForestryandOtherLandUse;and Waste. The lack of a complete archive of data for the 1994 inventory precluded recalculation of the 1994 inventoryusingthe2006IPCCGuidelines.Theinvestigationofapparentanomaliesinestimatesofthe carbondioxidesinkintheforestrysectorandmethaneemissionsfromsoilsinthe1994estimateswere alsonotpossible. KeyResults Thenetcarbondioxideemissionsincreasedfrom8,418Gigagrams(Gg)in 1994 to 9,532 Ggin2000. Theenergysectoraccountedfornearly86percentofthe2000,carbondioxideemissionsin2000,down from97percentin1994.Thetotalestimatedcarbondioxideremovals(sinks)increasedfrom167Ggin 1994to1,108Ggin2000.However,therewasinsufficientdataavailabletodeterminethereasonsfor thelargechangeanapparentdiscrepancy.TheAgriculture,ForestryandOtherLandUsesectorswere responsibleforthesink.Figure1showsthecarbondioxideemissionsbysectorforJamaicain2000. Figure1:CarbonDioxideEmissions,bysector,inJamaica(2000)
Methane emissions in 1994 were estimated at 58.5 Gg and 34.7 Gg in 2000. The 2000 estimates for methane emissions from enteric fermentation (36 Gg) and manure management (7 Gg) were considerablyhigherthanthosein1994(8.17Ggand0.646Ggrespectively).Thewastesectoraccounted for 54 percent of methane emissions in 2000, followed by Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (26%)andEnergy(20%)(SeeFigure2). Nitrous oxide emissions fell from 344 Gg in 1994 to 11.7 Gg in 2000. The reason for the large discrepancybetweenthe1994and2000estimatescouldnotbedeterminedsincerawdatausedinthe calculationsfor1994werenotavailable.Managedsoils(fertilizerapplications)accountedfor80percent ofthenitrousoxideemissions(Figure3).
Figure2:MethaneEmissions,bysector,inJamaica(2000)
Figure3:NitrousOxideEmissions,bysector,inJamaica(2000)
Estimatesforhydrofluorocarbonsemissionswerenotmadein1994butwere5.16Ggincarbondioxide equivalentin2000. WithrespecttoindirectGHGs,nitrogenoxideemissionswereestimatedat30.9Ggin1994and35.9Gg in2000.Carbonmonoxide,nonmethanevolatileorganiccompoundsandsulphurdioxideemissionsin 1994 were 173 Gg, 29.1 Gg and 98.9 Gg respectively; these rose to 205 Gg, 27.6 Gg, and 173 Gg respectively in 2000. The transport sector accounted for the majority of carbon monoxide and non
methane volatile organic compounds emissions; the energy industries (electricity generation) and manufacturingcategoriesaccountedforthemajorityofsulphurdioxideemissions.Theemissionsofthe indirectGHGsfor2000areshowninFigure4. Figure4:EmissionsofIndirectGreenhouseGasesinJamaica(2000)
Somesubsectoralcontributionstothe2000GHGinventoryemissionsareworthnoting: Manufacturing and construction accounted for 35.7 percent of net carbon dioxide fuel combustion emissions, followed by energy industries (electricity generation and petroleum refining) at 33.1 percent, and transport at 24.2 percent. Manufacturing and construction includessome(butnotall)componentsofthebauxitealuminaindustry. In the transport sector, light duty gasoline vehicles accounted for 48 percent of the carbon dioxide emissions, with light duty gasoline trucks, heavy duty diesel vehicles and heavy duty gasolinevehicleseachcontributingaround15to18percentemissions. Methaneemissionsinthewastesectorweremainlyfromsolidwastedisposal(71%)followedby wastewatertreatment(26%). GHGEmissionTrendsbetween2000and2005 Overall,annualemissionsforcarbondioxide,methaneandnitrousoxideareshowninFigure5.Carbon dioxideemissionsincreasedconsistentlyfrom9,531Ggin2000to13,956Ggin2005,apartfromaslight dipin2004.Therewasasimilartrendformethaneemissions,whichrosefrom31.1Ggin2000to41.9 Ggin2005.Nitrousoxideemissionstrendedup,butinmuchsmallerquantities.
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The large increase (46%) in carbon dioxide emissions was due to increases in energy sector fuel consumptioninthemanufacturing(bauxiteandaluminaindustry)andtransportationcategories(Figure 6). There was little change in the magnitudes of the sources and sinks for carbon dioxide in the Agriculture,ForestryandOtherLandUsesectorsover200005.IntheIndustrialProcessesandProducts UseSector,carbondioxideemissionsfromthecementindustryincreasedover200005,butthosedue tolimemanufacturedeclined.Importationoflimewasrequiredtomeetthealuminaindustrydemands. Carbon dioxide emissions in the waste sector increased over 200005, but the contribution from managed disposal sites decreased while that from unmanaged sites increased. (There was a similar patternformethaneemissionsinthewastesector;withthosefrommanagedsitesdecreasingandthose fromunmanagedsitesincreasing.) Figure5CO2,N2OandCH4Emissions:20002005 Figure6:EnergySectorCO2Emissions:20002005
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ProgrammesContainingMeasurestoFacilitateMitigationofClimateChange For some countries, particularly developed countries with emission reduction targets, energy policy is linkedtoorframedwithinthecontextofclimatechangemitigationandthemovetowardsalowcarbon economy. Although developing countries, including Jamaica, do not have emission reduction targets, no regrets mitigation actions such as energy conservation and development of renewable energy sourcescanhavepositiveimpactsintermsofeconomic,social,andenvironmentalconsiderations. Jamaica has no known primary petroleum or coal reserves and imports all of its petroleum and coal requirements.Domesticenergyneedsaremetbyburningpetroleumproductsandcoalandrenewable fuel biomass(i.e.,bagasse,fuel wood,and charcoal)andusingother renewableresources (e.g., solar, windandhydro).In2008,approximately86percentoftheenergymixwasimportedpetroleum,with theremaindercomingfromrenewablesandcoal. Electricityisgenerated primarilybyoilfiredsteam, enginedriven,andgasturbineunits.Smalleramountsofelectricityaregeneratedbyhydroelectricand windpower.Useofsolarenergyisnegligible. Jamaicas Petrojam refinery, which has a nameplate capacity of 35,000 barrels per stream day (bsd), providessomeoftherefinedpetroleumproductsandtheremainderisimported.Petrojamisastate ownedenterpriseandtheassociatedelectricutilitytheJamaicaPublicServiceCompanyLimited(JPS) is80.1percentprivatelyownedandtheremaindergovernmentowned.JPSisthesoledistributorof electricitytothepublicanditgeneratesthemajorityoftheelectricitysoldtothepublic.Theremainder is purchased from independent privately owned power producers. A small amount of electricity is generatedbyindustrial,commercialorresidentialoperatorsfortheirownuse.Heavyfueloilneededby thebauxitealuminaindustryisimporteddirectlybytheindustry. The bauxite and alumina industry has the largest percentage of end use, which was 37.4 percent in 2008,followedbyelectricitygeneration(25%),transport(20.4%)andthesugarindustry(12.2%).
The LongRange Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model was used for the mitigation assessmenttoexaminetheeffectsofthreescenariosondemand,transformation,resources,andnon energy sector emissions. LEAP is a scenariobased, energyenvironment modelling tool based on a comprehensive accounting of how energy is consumed, converted and produced in a given region or economyunderarangeofalternativeassumptions. Thebaseyearusedintheanalysiswas2000thesameyearusedforcompilationofthenationalGHG emission inventory. Historical data from 200008 were used and projections were made for 2009 to 2035forthreegroupsofscenarios(theReferenceScenario,Scenario2(S2)andScenario3(S3)),which werecharacterisedprimarilybydifferentratesofgrowthforthepopulationandGDP. TheReferenceScenarioislinkedtoJamaicasVision2030GDPandpopulationgrowthtargets,anddoes notincludeanyinitiativestomitigateGHGemissions.TheReferenceScenarioassumesthattwoofthree alumina refineries that closed in 2009 would reopen. It also assumes that the Petrojam Refinery upgradewouldbecompletedin2014andprovideslowsulphurdieselandgasolineforthevehiclefleet andpetcokefora100MWplantatHuntsBay.Finally,theReferenceScenarioalsoassumedtheuseof coalatthenewoldHarbourpowerstation. Scenarios S2 and S3 include the same assumptions on the alumina and Petrojam refineries as well as progressivelyhigherGDPgrowthratesbutlowerpopulationgrowthrates.ThemitigationoptionsinS2 and S3 draw from Jamaicas newly adopted 200930 energy policy, including one option for use of nuclear power in S3. Future energy intensity data used in the scenarios was based on existing and proposed voluntary energy standards for appliances used in US and/or Canadian Energy Star programmes, but with later implementation or penetration for Jamaica. Import data for various appliances and the typical and maximum lifetimes of appliances together with policy initiatives were takenintoconsiderationinestimatingthepenetrationofenergyefficientappliancesinS2andS3. The final energy demand for all scenarios, as modelled with LEAP, is shown in Figure 7. The most strikingfeatureisthedramaticdeclineinenergydemandin2009through2012asaconsequenceofthe closureofthreealuminaplantsinthefirstquarterof2009andthe(assumed)reopeningoftwoofthose plantsin2011withfullproductionachievedin2012.Thefinalenergydemandisnotverydependenton thechoiceoffuelintheS2andS3scenariooptionsandthedemandundertheS2optionsarelowerthan thoseundertheS3options.ThelargeincreaseinenergydemandintheS3optionsisduemainlytoa newaluminaplantand,toalesserextent,onlowerpopulationgrowthandtheassociateddemandsfor electricityandanincreaseincementproduction.
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Figure7:FinalEnergyDemandProjectionsforJamaica,AllScenarios(200935)
Intermsofoveralldemand,thepercentagechangeincarbondioxideemissionsfor2035relativeto2000 increasedby29percent,52percent,and98percentforthereference,S2,andS3scenariosrespectively. This is consistent with the general increase in carbon dioxidegenerating (and energy consuming) activitiesduetoincreasesinpopulation,numberofvehicles,andbauxiteandaluminaproduction.The scenariosallentailedadditionalcoalfiredelectricitygenerationwhoseemissionseasilyoutweighedthe emission reductions from much smaller additions of wind and hydro generating stations. The major mitigationmeasurewastheintroductionofnaturalgas(scenariosS2NGandS3NG)andanuclearplant in conjunction with natural gas (scenario S3NGNU). Because of these measures, the carbon dioxide emissionsinthesescenariosarelowerthanthoseinthecorrespondingS2andS3scenarios. Successfulimplementationofthemitigationmeasureswillinteraliadependon: Provision of incentives/disincentives for the development and use of innovative technologies thatimprove/worsenefficiency; Implementationofenergyrelatedpoliciesthatsupportthegoalsofthenationalenergypolicy, namely,thebiofuels,wastetoenergy,andcarbonemissionstradingpolicies; Creationofrelevantlegislationtosupportinvestmentsinefficiencyinenergyintensivesectors suchastransportandbauxite; A review of previous and existing demand side management programmes for performance, strengthsandlessonslearned; Stronger institutional capacities in the energy and environment sectors, in particular carbon trading; Development of programmes designed to influence market behaviour towards more efficient useinenergyacrossallsectors;
Developmentofmechanismstoefficientlyshareenergyrelatedinformationandforpublicand privatesectorentitiestocollaborateonenergyrelatedprojects; Establishment of a system to identify and replace old inefficient electricity equipment and (especially)generatingunits/plantswithmorefuelefficientandcostefficienttechnologiesand plants; Promotion of strategic partnerships between the public and private sectors to finance and developenergydiversificationprojects;and Introduction of national vehicle emission standards and regulations to reduce vehicular emissionsandpromoteintroductionofcleanertransportationfuels(especiallyCNG).
ProgrammesContainingMeasurestoFacilitateAdaptationtoClimateChange Vulnerability and adaptation assessments were undertaken for five sectors: water resources, agriculture,humanhealth,coastalzonesandhumansettlements,andtourism. Existing&FutureClimateintheCaribbeanandJamaica The annual average rainfall in Jamaica is 1,871 mm based on data from the National Meteorological Servicefor198107.Whiletherearenodiscernablelongtermtrends,themaximumlevelofconsecutive dry days is increasing and the number of heavy rain days is increasing. While there are variations in tropicalandextratropicalcycloneactivities,suchashurricanesandtyphoons,dailytemperaturesareat anaverageof26.2Celsiusto30.0Celsiusovercoastalareas.Accordingtothe2007IPCC4thAssessment Report,warmingrangedfrom0.0Celsiusto0.5Celsiusperdecade,globally. Thisgivesrisetothefollowingfouremissionrankingscenarios: 1. A1Moreintegratedsubgroups,economicgrowthandliberalglobalisation 2. A2Moredividedworld,economicgrowthwithgreaterregionalfocus 3. B1Integrated,environmentallysensitivewithstrongglobalrelationships 4. B2Moredividedbutenvironmentallysensitivewithhighregionalfocus Variousmodelswereusedtoassessfutureclimateprojections,includingtheAOGCM(HAD,EHC,MRI models)andRCM(PRECIS).Thereisanindicationofconsistenttemperaturewarmingacrossallseasons andscenarios.Theprojected1.5 2.0 Celsiusincreaseintemperatureresultsinincreasedevaporation losses,decreasedprecipitation,andacontinuationofrainfalldecline. WaterResources As noted earlier, groundwater supplies most water demands in Jamaica (approximately 80% of production)andrepresents84percentoftheislandsexploitablewater.Theislandswatersourcesare associated with major rock formations and their interrelationships. The island is divided into ten hydrologicalbasins. StreamflowdatafromtheJamaicanWaterResourcesAuthorityindicatethatseveralriversareindeficit, whichresultsinwaterlockoffsandanoveralllimitinwatersupply.TheHopeRiver,RioCobre,andRio Minho areas are under stress. It is not clear whether Jamaica has enough storage to provide water supplies to adequately meet all demands during periods of below average rainfall. The monitoring of
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wells need some improvements so that the real trends may be better identified. Additionally, more workneedtobedonewithdatacollectiontomakeitmorerelevanttouserneeds. However, initial analysis of the Kingston Metropolitan Region, including the communities in South eastern St. Catherine, indicates that increased abstraction in the upper Rio Cobre basin could be the maincauseoflowerwatersuppliesandnotsomuchasadirectresultoflessrainfall.TheHopeRiver anothermajorsourceofwaterresourcesislikelytodeclineby11percentby2030.Significantissues associatedwithwaterresourcesmanagementandvulnerabilityandtheimpactsofclimatechangeare likelytopresentsomepressure. ProposedElementsofaWaterResourcesAdaptationStrategyforJamaica 1. Increasingandmaintaininginvestmentinhydrologicalmonitoringandwaterusethroughanational database.Thiswillresultinimproveddatacollectionandstorageonanationalscale. 2. Fundingresearchintoadoptingawaterresourcesandwatersupplyplanningmethodunderclimate change.Withappropriatemethodsinplace,consistentregionalandnationalplanningcantakeplace underachangingclimate. 3. Developingappropriatemodellingtoolstoassiststrategicplanningofwaterresources.Thereisan urgentneedtodevelopaconsistentsetofappropriatemodellingapproachesandtools. 4. Investigateshiftingfocusfromgroundwatertosurfacewaterstorageforwatersupply.Reducingthe reliance onvulnerablecoastal aquifers,intermsofqualityandquantitywiththeincreaseduse of surfacewaterreservoirstomaintainsupplies. Agriculture AgricultureremainscentraltotheJamaicaneconomyforemploymentandforeignexchangeearnings. Nonetheless,theagriculturesectorhasbeenconsistentlydecliningoverthepasttwodecades.In1943, 45 percent of the population earned their living from agriculture; by 2006, this had declined to 17.9 percent.AgriculturescontributiontoGDPwas5.3percentin2005,comparedto6.5percentin2000. Already there are signs of significant vulnerability of the sector to climate variability (e.g., storms and droughts).InSeptember2004,HurricaneIvandestroyedtheentiredomesticandexportcropresulting in8,000personsbeingoutofwork.Fortyfivepercentofcoffeeberrieswerelostandsugarcanewas uprooted,resultinginreducedsugarcontentandyield.Livestockwasalsoaffectedasmilkproduction decreasedduetothedeathofanimals.Studiesfromelsewhereindicatethatvulnerabilitywillincrease inthefuturewithclimatechange.However,itisdifficulttodeterminetheimpactofclimatechangeon agriculture and develop appropriate adaptation measures without the appropriate tools and approaches. ProposedElementsofanAgricultureAdaptationStrategyforJamaica 1. Raise awareness of the potential impact of climate change on the agricultural sector. Climate changeisnotmentionedintheAgriculturalDevelopmentStrategy20052008. 2. Developmodellingapproachesandtoolstoallowassessmentofimpactsofclimatechangeon export and domestic crops and meat production. Detailed crop/country/climate specific assessmentsarerequiredtoinformanadaptationprogrammeandpolicydevelopment.
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3. Develop regional links to fund and promote plant breeding programmes for common crops. Adaptation strategies include the development of crop varieties with increased temperature, droughtandpestresistance. 4. Review approaches to integrated pest management under climate change. Existing pest management strategies may require modification under climate change. Care must be taken that any changes to these strategies do not have negative impacts on the environment, for example,fromincreasedpesticideuse. HumanHealth With global warming, human wellbeing will be affected by droughts and higher temperatures either directlyorindirectly. Pathogen loading of streams and poor sanitation could possibly result from lack of potable water. Storageofwaterduringdroughtsindrumsprovidessuitablehabitatsformosquitoesandsoaugments the transmission of vectorborne diseases, like dengue fever and malaria, which are likely to increase withpredictedhighertemperatures.A twotothreedegreeCelsius risein temperaturescanleadto a threefoldincreaseindenguefevertransmission.Basedonasimpleproportion,anestimatedfigureof approximately 600 disability adjusted life years would be lost in Jamaica. The chances of dengue hemorrhagic fever will be increased. Since Jamaica has had all four serotypes, this could have a very seriousimpactonthetouristindustry. Increased temperatures are also associated with increased episodes of diarrhoeal diseases, sea food poisoning,andincreasesindangerouspollutants.Threatsfromhighertemperaturesmaycausegreater contact between food and pest species. Warmer seas contribute to toxic algae bloom and increased casesofhuman shellfishandreeffishpoisoning. Suchcases havebeenreportedin FrenchPolynesia. Incidentsofhightemperaturemorbidityandmortalityareprojectedtoincrease. Due to water shortages, the impact expected on Jamaica would be loss of food production and the necessitytoimportand/orexperiencefoodshortages.Thismayleadtohungerandmalnutrition. The leading causes of death in Jamaica are noncommunicable diseases respiratory and lifestyle diseases. Cerebrovascular (stroke) that is susceptible to heat stress is among the leading causes of deaths. The problem could be exacerbated by the design and type of construction materials used in housing.Attentionmustbegiventothedesignofbuildingsinordertoreduceheatstress. Asthma is active among young children and this is an increasing cause for concern. There is ongoing studytodeterminetheactualincidenceofasthma.Therearealsotwoclimaterelatedfactorsthatare causing concern. The first is the fact that rising carbon dioxide levels could increase allergenic plant pollen. The second is the correlation between the outbreak of asthma affecting children and the concentrationoftheSaharandustinSahelAfricathatcouldleadtoincreaseofasthmaintheCaribbean. This correlation has been established in Trinidad and Tobago: as the dust concentration rises, admissionstohospitalsincrease. The water and sanitation sectors of the population are dependent on water. Sources that are compromisedhaveimplicationsinthespreadofdiseases.BreakoutoftyphoidafterHurricaneGilbert was associated with infrastructural damage to a treatment plant and the destruction of pit latrines. Epidemiological surveillance including entomological surveillance behaviours that promote the
proliferationoflarvalhabitatsandthepromotionofbehaviouralchangeareconsideredpriorities.Ifthe health system is efficient the country can adapt. The reorganisation of the health system has to be rethought. ProposedElementsofanHealthAdaptationStrategyforJamaica
Climate change must also be mainstreamed into the health system to recognise the likely impact of vectorbornediseases.Underfinancingisamajorproblemthatcanaffectedstafftrainingandtheability toconductsurveillance. Climate changeshouldbeincludedinthemandateofOfficeofDisasterPreparedness andEmergency Management(ODPEM)sinceextremesinclimatechangecanleadtogreaterincidencesoffloodingand storm surges. The Agency should be aware of this as well as the possibility of Category 5 hurricane occurringmorefrequently.Otheradaptationstrategiesincludedtheproperidentificationandupgrading of shelters to meet the demands for the outbreaks of diarrhoeal diseases, injuries and lacerations resulting from flying and broken objects, preexisting conditions such as foot ulcers and other unhygienicconditionsthatmaybeworsened. Shorttermadaptationstrategiesforaddressingvectorbornediseasesinclude: Public education aimed at encouraging individuals to identify and eliminate current breeding sitesandthesymptomsofdengue; Surveillanceinoutbreakcommunitiesforthepurposeofenvironmentalsanitisation;and Adultmosquitocontrolthroughtheuseofappropriateinsecticide. Overallrecommendationsforthehealthsectorinclude: Publiceducationinthemanagementofstress; Eliminationoftaxesonelectricfans; Increasedpubliceducationintheareasofsanitationandfoodpoisoning; Relevantagenciespreparedforhandlingincreasesintheincidentsoffoodpoisoning; Publichealthinspectionsformosquitoes,includingpestandrodenteradication; Sustainabledesignstandardsforhousinginareassubjectedtohighrainfallandhurricanewinds, forexample,roofscanreduceheatabsorptionbypaintingthemwhiteorsilver;windowsneed crossventilation;and Moreattentiontobepaidtothedesignofsettlements. Priorityshouldbegivento: Better water monitoring and management through improvements at the National Water CommissionandWaterResourcesAuthority; ImprovingthecapabilitiesofODPEMtowarnofhazards; Improving data gathering ability and technical support staff of the Meteorological Office for monitoringandwarningofairbonedtypediseases; Morecollaborationbetweenresearchinstitutionsinvolvedinpollutioncontrol; Allavailableclimatedatafromsourcesaretobeusedtovalidateregionalmodelsandcalibrate statisticalmodels; Supportshouldbegiventoresearchinstitutionsinvolvedinenvironmentalrelatedhealthrisks torunasmanyregionalandstatisticaldownscalingmodelsaspossibleforcalibrationandinter comparisonpurposes;
Safewaterstoragedrums;and Moreproactiveactionsinpressingthecaseformitigationofgreenhousegases,especiallybythe developedcountries,inordertopreventincreasedtemperatures.
CoastalResourcesandHumanSettlements The expected effects on the coastal zone of Jamaica from climate change, including possible future changesinsealevel,wereassessedforfivecontrastingcoastalareas:St.MargaretsBay,Portland;the St.JamesParishcoastlineeastofMontegoBay;LongBay,Negril;thecoastfromWestEndtoLittleBay, Westmoreland;andPortmore,St.Catherine. Forestimatingfuturesealevels,itwasassumedthatthegloballyaveragedrisesprojectedbythe2007 IPCCFourthAssessmentReportappliedtoJamaica.Variousscenariosprojectedariseby2100 froma lowof0.18mtoahighof0.59m.Forcomparison,anothersetofvalueswascompiledfromaresearch paperthatsuggestedthepossibilityofsealevelriseupto1.6mbytheendofthecentury. SeasurfacetemperatureprojectionsweretakenfromCaribbeandatathatsuggestedatemperaturerise of about 1 degree Celsius by 2050. Figures for increased acidity were taken from 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, suggesting average global ocean surface pH reductions of 0.14 to 0.35 units. BaselinedatafromtheJamaicanregionhavenotyetbeencollected. Althoughitisgenerallyagreedthattheincidenceofsevereandwetterhurricaneswillprobablyincrease, there is controversy over the likelihood of a general increase in hurricane frequency. Thus, it was assumedthattherewouldbenoincreaseinhurricanefrequencyorseverityovertherestofthecentury. The impacts of these processes on the various kinds of coastline around Jamaica were assessed. On beaches, short term erosion is largely governedby the incidence of storms. Over longerperiods, sea levelrisewillcauseprogressiveretreat.Hardengineeredstructuressuchasseawallswillprobablylead toeventualdisappearanceofanybeachesinfrontofthem.Offshorebreakwaterswillbemoreusefulin retainingnearshoresandsupplies.Oncliffsandrockycoasts,sealevelrisewillbringtheclifftopcloser to sealevel and increase the frequency of overtopping of the cliff by storm waves and rock debris, includinglargeboulders.Recessionwillbegreatestforsoftrockcliffs,whereasfracturedhardrockcliffs will be more prone to sudden collapse, as indicated in the included Jamaican examples. Wetlands present a particular problem due to their proximity to sealevel and the microtidal regime around Jamaica.Smallchangesinsealevelwillpromptprogressiveretreatandmigrationofwetlandecozones, unless vertical accumulation rates of wetland debris keep up with sealevel rise. Most Jamaican wetlandsarefrontedbyanarrowbeachwhichwillretreatoverthewetland,drivenbystormsandsea levelrise.NodataontheverticalaccumulationrateofwetlandsedimentsisavailableforJamaica. These impacts are likely to be exacerbated, and even overshadowed, by nonclimate change factors, such as deforestation, increasing riverine floods from destruction of forest and from poor farming practices, leading to increased nearshore sedimentation and turbidity, increased chemical pollutants fromagricultureandindustrialwastes,andfromincreasingcoastalpopulationgrowth. AsemiquantitativeIndexofCoastalVulnerability(CVI)toSeaLevelRise,derivedfromoneusedbythe United States Geological Survey for National Parks, was applied to the five study areas. The index indicated that Portmore and Long Bay Negril are relatively highly vulnerable to sealevel rise; the St.
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JamescoastandSt.MargaretsBayaremoderatelyvulnerable,whiletheWestEndtoLittleBaycoast hasrelativelylowvulnerability. AnestimateofvulnerabilitytostormsurgefromhurricaneswascarriedoutfortheSt.Jamescoastand forPortmore,basedonpreviouslymodelledestimatesofreturnperiodsforsurges.Projectedsealevel elevationsfor2015,2030and2050andelevationsof1.6mand2mabovesealevelwereused.Usingthe sealevel projections derived from 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, these suggest that, for St. James,asurgeheightwithanapproximatereturnperiodof3.5to4yearsmightbeexpectedtoflooda structurepresentlyat0.5mabovesealevel.By2050,duetosealevelrise,thisstructurewouldsuffer surge inundation about every 2 years in other words, the frequency of flooding by surge would be almostdoubled.AstructureatPortmore,located0.5mabovesealevel,presentlyatriskoffloodingby aneventwithareturnperiodof5.5years,wouldbeimpactedbysurgefloodingaboutevery3.5years by2050.Figuresarealsoestimated,forcomparison,forotherprojectionsoffuturesealevel. ProposedElementsofanCoastalZones&HumanSettlementsAdaptationStrategyforJamaica Themostimportantmeasureforadaptingtosealevelriseinvolvesathoroughrevisionofthepresent published setback guidelines. Instead of being based on slope angles, these should be related to the localriskofinundationfrompresentandfuturestormevents(i.e.,sitespecific).Setbacksforstructures on rocky coasts where there is stormdeposited debris should be determined by the position of the debrisridgeformedbysandyandrockydebrisaccumulatedoverthepastfourmillennia.Destroyingthis ridge for construction materials exposes communities and buildings behind the ridge to increased vulnerabilityfrominundationanddamagefrommovingdebris. ThevulnerabilityofcommunitiessuchasPortmoretoextremeweathereventsandthesusceptibilityof escaperoadstofloodingrequireamajorefforttoreengineertheMandelaHighwayandotherarterial roadsatlowelevationasallweatherhighways. Inheavilypopulatedandtouristicareasofthecoastline,thereisaneedtoproviderapiddissemination of warnings of sudden events, perhaps aided by the development of audible warning systems. Such eventswouldincludetsunami(rareevents,butwithincreasingimpactoncoastalstructuresassealevel rises),flashfloods,accidentalreleaseofpoisonousgases,oilspillsetc. Therewill beanincreasing need forbeachnourishmentprojectsforcarbonatebeaches.If thetourist industry is to survive through 2050, despite sealevel rise, increased ocean acidity and seasurface temperatures,thenidentificationofsuitableoffshoresanddepositsshouldcommencenowtoavoidthe growthofunregulatedsandreplenishmentschemes. Future research needs include an islandwide estimation of vulnerability to storms and sealevel rise (i.e.,amodifiedCVI)toprovidethetechnicalbackgroundfordecisionmakingforcoastaldevelopment proposals. This should include islandwide relevelling to ascertain the position of local sealevel at various places around the island. Continuing research is required on perfecting setback guidelines for Integrated Coastal Zone Management; identification of offshore carbonate sand deposits for beach nourishment; expansion of the programme of cooperative for fisherfolks; and satellitebased monitoringofchangesinthehealthoftheislandscoastalecosystems. Tourism
Tourism has been a blue ribbon industry in Jamaica over the past three decades. It provides approximately$1.934billionUSdollarsannuallytotheforeignexchangeearningsofthenationandis surpassed only by private remittance inflows as a foreign exchange earner. Between 200207, when averageGDPgrowthwas1.6percent,thetourismsectorgrew4.2percent. The local tourism product is dominated mainly by resort (sun, sea and fun) tourism and is location specific. Thenorthcoastareas (i.e.,MontegoBay, Ocho Rios,andNegril) arethedominantareasfor both stopover and cruise ship visitors. This is due to the coastal resources (white sand beaches, all inclusive hotels and sea ports and attractions) and infrastructural investments which have gone into theseareas. Twosocioeconomicscenariosweremodelled;onewithoutclimatechangevariables(controlscenario) and another with assumptions about a changed climate change. An independent model was also developedtoexaminevisitorarrivalsovertime. Forthecontrolscenario,visitorarrivalsareexpectedtoincreaseto3.1millionby2050.Forthescenario with a changing climate, the number of visitors falls to 2.7 million by 2050, resulting in declines in earnings. ProposedElementsofaTourismAdaptationStrategyforJamaica 1. Raisestakeholderawarenessoftheworkingsofbothtourismandenvironment; 2. Stakeholderidentificationofdetailedprogrammeandprojects; 3. Setupacomprehensiveperformanceframeworkwithtargets; 4. Providemorevariedvisitorattractionstoa)putlesspressureonexistingnaturalresourcesand b)stimulatemorevisitors; 5. Reflectsocialandenvironmentalcostsinthepriceoftourismproducts; 6. Improveenvironmentallobbying; 7. Implement infrastructural changes to protect the environment, e.g., groynes and levees, reforestation,andcoastalzonemanagement; 8. Implementeducationandsensitisationprogrammes; 9. Intensifycommunitytourismactivities;and 10. Increaseurbantourism. OtherinformationconsideredrelevanttoimplementationoftheConvention ClimatechangeresearchandsystematicobservationsystemsinJamaica
In2005,aninitialassessmentofJamaicassystematicobservationsystemswasconductedinconjunction withthenationalMeteorologicalService.Thisassessmentcomprisedofinterviewswithkeypersonnel, aswellasvisitstoanumberoflocationswheresystematicobservationsystemsarelocated. TheassessmentfocusedontheneedsandtherequirementsoftheMeteorologicalServices,withaview to making recommendations for the improvement of the observation systems in Jamaica. More specifically,thefollowingelementswereplanned: (i) A detailed assessment of the coastal, marine, and hydro meteorological systematic observationsystemsinJamaica,describing:thetypesandlocationsoftheequipment;the agencies responsible for the maintenance of the equipment; the scope of climate related
(ii) (iii)
datastored,includingclimatevariablesobserved;theyearsforwhichdataisavailableand frequencyofdatacollection. An assessment of the current coastal, marine, and hydro meteorological systematic observationssystemsinJamaica. An identification of the technological and capacity building requirements for the upgrade andimprovementsofthecurrentsystematicobservationsystems.
Itwasrecommendedthat13automaticweatherstationsbeaddedtotheexistingsystem.Alongwith someotherrequiredupgrades,thetotalcostofimprovementswouldbeUS$615,853. TechnologyNeedsAssessment Thetechnologyneedsassessmentprocessconsistedofaseriesofexpertworkshopswithkeysectoral experts present to discuss issues relating to technology in Jamaica. The first workshop focused on mitigationandenergyissues,whilethesecondworkshoplookedatadaptationissuesastheyrelateto thecoastalzoneandwatersectorsinJamaica.Bothworkshopsusedtheinitialnationalcommunication ofJamaicaasthedocumentofreference. A number of issues were considered with regards to criteria for the transfer and development of technologiesformitigationforJamaica.Theseincludedtheoverallintegrationwiththecurrentenergy policy,andthelinkagetodevelopmentgoals.InorderforatechnologytobesuitableforJamaica,itwas agreedthereanumberofkeycriteriawhichhavetobemet.Theseare: (i) affordabilityandlowcost, (ii) environmentalandeconomicimpact, (iii) socialacceptability,and (iv) jobcreationpotential. Theidentificationofthesekeycriteriawasdoneutilizingexpertjudgmentandstakeholderanalysis.It wasnotedthatanytechnologywhichistobetransferredtoJamaicashouldaidinreducingtheamount offoreignexchangewhichisutilizedtopurchaseenergy,inadditionthetechnologyshouldbedurable, be commercially proven and aid in the development of Jamaica. Further, the proposed technology shouldbeinlinewithfutureprojectedenergyscenarios.Onepossiblescenarioseestheexpansionof capacityfromthecurrent780MWto1250MWby2015.Ademandsidemanagementprogrammeto improveenergyefficiencyisalsounderway. Anumberofmitigationtechnologyoptionswereidentified: Naturalgastechnologyforelectricityproduction,especiallyforthebauxitealuminaindustries; Methaneextractionfromwastelandfillsforelectricityproduction; Alternativefuelsandvehicles,particularlyCNGanddiesel Renewableenergytechnologiesincludingwind,smallscalehydro,cogenerationandbiomass, solar,andOceanThermalEnergyConversion Adaptationtechnologieswereconsideredforthecoastalzoneandwaterresourcessectors.Anumberof issueswereconsideredwhencriteriaforthetransferanddevelopmentoftechnologiesforadaptation wereconsidered.Stakeholderconsultationsandexpertjudgmentwereusedtodeterminethecriteria. It was noted that technologies for adaptation should be: cost effective, proven, flexible, aid in vulnerabilityreduction,andeasytouse.Technologiesforadaptationshouldalsolookattechnologiesin thebroadestsense.
Forimprovingcoastalzonemanagement,thefollowingtechnologieswereidentified: Beachprotectionmeasuressuchasgroynesandrevetments; Reinstatement of the tidal gauge network (for obtaining data to feed into the geographic information system and aid in planning and project designs, thus ensuring vulnerability reductionoccurs; Beachprofiling(toaidimproveddatacollection);and Regenerationofmangroves. Inthewatersector,thefollowingneedswerenoted: Improvementandrationalizationofthehydrometricnetwork; Additional river gauges and more automatic weather stations to aid in data collection and planningtoreducevulnerability; Additionalfloodwarningsystems;and Additional software such as waterware, riverware, and mikebasin to aid in improvement of watermanagement. ThemainbarriertothetransferoftechnologytoJamaicaisthehighinitialcapitalcostoftechnologies. Thereisaneedforflexiblefinancialmeasuresinorderfornewtechnologiestobeadopted.Attitudes, perceptions, and lack of information were also highlighted as a key barrier. In particular, lack of understandingaboutspecifictechnologiesandlackofpoliticalwillpreventthetransferandadoptionof potential technologies. Lack of data is a constraint, particularly with regards to vulnerability issues whichpreventsadoptionandapplicationsoftechnologiesforadaptation.Thelackofacentraldecision makingentitytohandleissueswithregardstotechnologywasalsonotedasabarrier. PublicAwarenessRaising Anumberofbaselinestudieswereconductedtoobtainabetterunderstandingofthelevelofeducation andunderstandingaboutclimatechangeinJamaica.Anumberofactivitieswereundertaken,including: (i) An in house focal point workshop on the Jamaica Phase Two Top Up activities. The purpose of the workshop was to sensitize the relevant persons within the Meteorological Servicetotheprojectandthepossibleoutputs. Aprojectlaunchworkshop.Theobjectivesofthisworkshopwereto:1)aidinreconvening (ii) theNationalImplementationCoordinatingUnitforclimatechangeinJamaicaand2)launch phase two by informing participants about climate change, regional concerns, climate changescenarios,andalternativeenergyoptionsforJamaica. (iii) AClimateChangeSymposium.Participantsweresensitisedtointernationalissuesrelatedto climatechange,particularlythe10thConferenceofPartiesoftheUNFCCCandtheeffectthat climatechangecouldhaveonenergy,waterresources,coastalresourcesandbiodiversity. (iv) Aclimatechangepubliceducationandawarenesssurvey. Overall, the activities aided in facilitating national networks on climate change and promoting the integrationofclimatechangeconcernsintothenationaldevelopmentplanningdialogue.
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TableofContent ExecutiveSummary............................................................................................................................1 TableofContent...............................................................................................................................19 Acknowledgement............................................................................................................................29 ListofAcronyms................................................................................................................................30 Background.......................................................................................................................................33 Chapter1:NationalCircumstances......................................................................................................36 1.1 History&Politics.........................................................................................................................36 1.2 Population&Demographics.........................................................................................................36 1.3 Geography&Climate............................................................................................................42 1.4 Economy...............................................................................................................................43 1.5 Vision2030JamaicasNationalDevelopmentPlan..................................................................47 Chapter2: TheNationalGreenhouseInventory..........................................................................49 2.1 Introduction..........................................................................................................................49 2.2 Overview&SummaryofJamaicasGHGInventory................................................................50 2.3 EnergySectorGHGEmissions................................................................................................59 2.4 IndustrialProcesses&ProductUse(IPPU)GHGEmissions.....................................................79 2.5 Agriculture,Forestry&OtherLandUseSectorGHGEmissions&Sinks....................................95 2.6 WasteSectorGHGEmissions...............................................................................................129 ReferencesforChapter2.................................................................................................................149 Chapter3: ProgrammesContainingMeasurestoMitigateClimateChange................................150 3.1 BackgroundInformation......................................................................................................150 3.2 MethodologicalApproach....................................................................................................166 3.3 LEAPResults........................................................................................................................177 3.4 ImplementationofMitigationActions..................................................................................214 Chapter 4: Programmes Containing Measures to Facilitate Adequate Adaptation to Climate Change...........................................................................................................................................246 4.1 Existing & Future Climate in the Caribbean & Jamaica......................................................247 4.2 The Agricultural Sector......................................................................................................249 4.3 The Water Resources Sector..............................................................................................277 4.4 Human Health....................................................................................................................305 4.5 The Coastal Resources Sector including Human Settlement...............................................337 Chapter 5: Other Information Considered Relevant to the Achievements of the Objectives of the Convention.....................................................................................................................................373 5.1 Climate Change Research & Systematic Observation Systems in Jamaica...........................373 5.2 Jamaicas Initial Climate Change Technology Needs Assessment.......................................379 5.3 Capacity & Technological Requirements, Public Awareness and Second National Communications............................................................................................................................392 5.4 Review of the Initial National Communication..................................................................398 References for Chapter 5.................................................................................................................401 Appendix 1: Project Concept for Improvements of Systematic Observation Systems of the Meteorological Service of the Government of Jamaica.................................................................402
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Chapter 6:
Constraints and Gaps, & Related Financial, Technical & Capacity Building Needs.........................................................................................................................404 6.1 Data Gaps & Suggested Improvements to the National GHG Inventory....................................404 References for Chapter 6.......................................................................................................................407 References for Chapters 1, 3 & 4..........................................................................................................407
FIGURES AND TABLES EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Figure 1: Carbon Dioxide Emissions by sector in Jamaica (2000).....................................................3 Figure 2: Methane Emissions, by sector, in Jamaica (2000)......................................................4 Figure 3: Nitrous Oxide Emissions, by sector, in Jamaica (2000).............................................4 Figure 4: Emissions of Indirect Greenhouse Gases in Jamaica (2000)......................................5 Figure 5 CO2, N2O and CH4 Emissions: 2000-2005..............................................................6 Figure 6: Energy Sector CO2 Emissions: 2000 2005......................................................................7 Figure 7: Final Energy Demand Projections for Jamaica, All Scenarios (2009-35)..........................9 NATIONAL COMMUNICATION Figure 1.1: Jamaican Population Growth and Growth Rates (2000-07)........................................37 Figure 1.2: Key Jamaican Population Growth Statistics (2000-07)............................................38 Figure 1.3: Annual GDP and GDP Growth Rate, 2000-07..............................................44 Figure 1.4: Constant and Nominal per Capita Income, Jamaica (2000-07).........................44 Figure 1.5: Labour Force, Labour Force Participation and Employment (2000-07)...................46 Figure 1.6: The National Goals and Outcomes of Vision 2030 Jamaica....................................48 Figure 2.1: Summary of National GHG Emissions in Jamaica (2000).....................50 Figure 2.2: Carbon Dioxide Emissions, by sector, in Jamaica (2000).............................52 Figure 2.3: Methane Emissions, by sector, in Jamaica (2000)............................................52 Figure 2.4: Nitrous Oxide Emissions, by sector, in Jamaica (2000)........................................53 Figure 2.5: Emissions of Indirect Greenhouse Gases in Jamaica (2000).................................54 Figure 2.6: Net Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fuel Combustion in Jamaica (2000)...............54 Figure 2.7: Carbon Dioxide Emissions from On-Road Transportation in Jamaica (2000)..........55 Figure 2.8: Methane Emissions from the Waste Sector in Jamaica (2000)..............................55 Figure 2.14: Comparison of Fuel Economy and GHG Emission Standards Normalized by CAFConverted mpg.........................................................................................69 Figure 2.15: CO2 emissions from the Industrial Processes and Product Use Sector (200005)...........................................................................................................................82 Figure 2.16: Diagram of Land Use/Cover Types Hierarchical Classification in Jamaica..........96 Figure 3.1: Jamaicas Energy Supply (2008).155 Figure 3.2: Jamaicas Energy End Use and International Bunkers (2000-08)...156 Figure 3.3: Percentage End Use of Jamaicas Energy (2008)157 Figure 3.4: Implementation Framework for Jamaicas National Energy Policy.........................164 Figure 3.5: Disposal of Electricity in 2008172 Figure 3.6: Energy Balance for Jamaica (2000).178 Figure 3.7: Energy Balance for Jamaica (2008).................................................................................178 Figure3.8: Final Environmental Loading for CO2 for Jamaica, All Scenarios (2009-35)................179 Figure 3.9: Final Environmental Loading for N2O for Jamaica, All Scenarios (2009-35)............179 Figure 3.10: Final Environmental Loading for CH4 for Jamaica, All Scenarios (2009-35).........180 Figure 3.11: Final Environmental Loading for CO2 (Biogenic and Non-Biogenic) for Jamaica, All Scenarios (2009-35......................................................................181
Figure 3.12: Figure 3.13: Figure 3.14: Figure 3.15: Figure 3.16: Figure 3.17: Figure 3.18: Figure 3.19: Figure 3.20: Figure 3.21: Figure 3.22: Figure3.23: Figure 3.24: Figure 3.25: Figure 3.26: Figure 3.27: Figure 3.27: Figure 3.29: Figure 3.30: Figure 3.31: Figure 3.32: Figure 3.33: Figure 3.34: Figure 3.35: Figure 3.36: Figure3.37: Figure 3.38: Figure 3.39: Figure 3.40: Figure 3.41: Figure 3.42: Figure 3.43: Figure 3.42: Figure 3.43: Figure 3.44: Figure 3.45:
Final Environmental Loading for CO2 from Non-Energy Sector Effects for Jamaica (2009-35).........................................................................................................181 Final Environmental Loading for SO2 from Demand Sources for Jamaica (200935)............................................................................................................................182 Final Environmental Loading for SO2 from Transformation Sources for Jamaica (200935)....................................................................................................182 Final Energy Demand Projections for Jamaica, All Scenarios (2009-35)...........183 Electricity Generating Capacities for Jamaica, All Scenarios (2009-35)....................183 Coal Gasification Requirement Projections for Jamaica, All Scenarios (2009-35).....184 CO2 Emissions from Bayer Process for Jamaica, All Scenarios (2009-35)............186 CO2 Emissions from Alumina Kilns for Jamaica, All Scenarios (2009-35)................186 CO2 Emissions from Lime Kilns for Jamaica, All Scenarios (2009-35).....................187 CO2 Emissions from Bauxite Mining for Jamaica, All Scenarios (2009-35)......187 Domestic Aircraft CO2 Emissions for Jamaica, All Scenarios (2009-35)...188 Age Distribution of the Jamaican Vehicle Fleet (2008)..191 Final Environmental Loadings for On Road Fleet, Selected Scenarios (2009-35...........191 Final Environmental Loadings for On Road Fleet, Reference Scenario (2009-35)........192 Final Environmental Loadings for Road Transport, Selected Scenarios Relative to the Reference Scenario (2009-35).........................................................................................193 Final Environmental Loadings for Non Biogenic CO2 for Residential Demand, All Scenarios (2009-35).........................................................................................193 Final Environmental Loadings for Non Biogenic CO2 for Residential Demand, All Scenarios (2009-35).........................................................................194 Lighting Mitigation Measures in Household Demand Category.....................................194 Television Mitigation Measures in Household Demand Category..............195 Refrigeration Mitigation Measures in Household Demand Category.............195 Mitigation Measures in the Government Demand Category, Selected Scenarios (200935)....................................................................................................................196 Mitigation Measures from UWI Initiatives for Selected Scenarios Relative to Reference Scenario (2009-35)......................................................................................197 CO2 Emissions from Transformation Processes in Jamaica, All Scenarios (200935)198 CO2 Emissions from Transformation Processes under Scenario 3 (2009-35).................198 Electricity Generation Outputs, Selected Scenarios (2009-35)...............................199 Comparison between Actual and Modelled Electricity Generation Outputs (2000-08).........................................................................................................199 Electricity Generation Capacity, Scenarios Reference, S2, S3 and S3 NGNU (2009-35).........................................................................................200 Transformation Results: Electricity Generation Capacity Added, Scenarios Reference, S2, S3 and S3 NGNU (2009-35)........................................................................200 Transformation Results: Electricity Generation Capacity Retired/Mothballed, Scenarios Reference, S2, S3 (2009-35)............................................................201 Percentages of Fuel Types in the Reference, S2 and S3 Scenarios.............202 Final Energy Demand All Fuels (Grouped): Reference Scenario...........................203 Final Energy Demand All Fuels: Scenario S2 (Coal)..........................203 Final Energy Demand All Fuels (Grouped): Reference Scenario.......................204 Final Energy Demand All Fuels: Scenario S2 (Coal)..................................204 Final Energy Demand All Fuels: Scenario S2 NG (Natural Gas for Power, Alumina, and Vehicles)..........................................................................................204 Final Energy Demand All Fuels: Scenario S3 NG (Natural Gas for Power, Alumina, and Vehicles)..............................................................................................204
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Transformation Outputs: Refinery Fuels Outputs (thousand boe): Reference Scenario for Selected Years..............................................................................................205 Figure 3.47: Transformation Outputs: Refinery Fuels Outputs (thousand boe): Scenario S2 for Selected Years.....................................................................................................207 Figure 3.48: Transformation Outputs: Refinery Fuels Outputs (thousand boe): Scenario S2 NG for Selected Years..................................................................................209 Figure 3.50: Transformation Outputs: Refinery Fuels Outputs (thousand boe): Scenario S3 NG for Selected Years.....................................................................................210 Figure 3.51: Summary of Percentage Changes in CO2 Emissions in 2035 Relative to 2000 for Overall Demand and Transformation for Mitigation Assessment Scenarios...............................212 Figure 4.1: The seven regions of Jamaica defined using the PRECIS regional climate model....247 Figure 4.2: Agricultural Production Index for Jamaican Agriculture (1986 to 2006; 1986=100).............................................................................................................259 Figure 4.3: Agriculture Production Index and Major Climatic Events (1986to 2006)...............262 Figure 4.4: Agriculture Production Index and Annual Rainfall (1986 to 2006).......................263 Figure 4.6: Impact of Temperature Rise on Robusta Coffee Production Areas in Uganda..............271 Figure 4.7: Jamaicas Hydrostratigraphic Units................................................................................276 Figure 4.8: Jamaicas Basins and Water Management Units............................................................277 Figure 4.9: Lime Tree#2 in SE St Catherine Trend Analysis: Observed Annual Maximum Series Groundwater Elevations (1970 to 2002)................................................................286 Figure 4.10: Rio Cobre at Bog Walk Estimated Annual Minimum Monthly Stream-Flows (1954 to 2004).......................................................................................................287 Figure 4.12: Examples of Tropical Storm / Hurricane Impacts on the Jamaican Aquatic Environment..........................................................................................................290 Figure 4.13a: Assessment of Existing Climate Supply-Demand Balances....................................292 Figure 4.13c: Assessment of Future Climate with Adaptation Supply-Demand Balances............294 Figure 4.14: MACC Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment Project Area.................................298 Figure 4.15: Pathways by Which Climate Change Affects Human Health, including Local Modulating Influences and the Feedback Influence of Adaptation Measures...........................308 Figure 4.16: Time Series of Monthly Reported Dengue Cases, Rainfall and Temperature in Trinidad and Tobago (1996-01)............................................................................................314 Figure 4.17: Reported Dengue Cases, Moving Average Temperature (MAT), and Average MAT in Trinidad and Tobago (1992, 1994, 1999 and 001).................................................315 Figure 4.18: Reported Dengue Cases (RC), Moving Average Temperature (MAT) and Average MAT in Trinidad and Tobago (1996-98 and 2000).........................................................316 Figure 4.19: Time series of Breteau Index and Reported Dengue Cases in Trinidad & Tobago (1981-01)..............................................................................................................317 Figure 4.20: Breteau Index, Dengue Cases and Rainfall in Trinidad & Tobago (2002).............317 Figure 4.21: Ocean Current Regime near Jamaica for the Month of July....................................336 Figure 4.22: Illustration of Different Coastal Boundaries of Jamaica........................................337 Figure 4.23: Physical Features that Characterize a Coastal Zone................................................338 Figure 4.21: Map of Jamaica, showing Principal Hazard areas (below 7.6m) in red...................339 Figure 4.22: Mean Annual Sea-Levels at Port Royal (1955-71).................................................339 Figure 4.26: Graph of Sea-Surface Temperatures for the Jamaican Region................................342 Figure 4.27: Using Past Shoreline Positions to Predict the Future at Long Bay, Negril (1971-03).....345 Figure 4.28: Housing on Cliff above Extensive Cliff Collapse, North Coast of Jamaica............346 Figure 4.23: Medium High Cliff Cut in Easily Erodible Marls, Southeast Coast of Jamaica.......346 Figure 4.30: Wetland Erosion in Southeast Jamaica Following Passage of Hurricane Dean (August 2007)................................................................................................................................347 Figure 4.31: Locations of Coastal Zone V&A Assessments in Jamaica......................................349 Figure 4.32: Location Map of St. Margarets Bay......................................................................350
Figure 3.46:
Figure 4.33: Figure 4.34: Figure 4.35: Figure 4.36: Figure 4.37: Figure 4.38: Figure 4.39: Figure 4.40: Figure 4.41: Figure 5.1: Figure 5.2: Figure 5.3: Figure 5.4: Figure 5.5:
Variations in Shoreline Position, St. Margarets Bay (1941 and 1992)...................352 View Looking North Along Long Bay, Negril........................................................354 Boulders at Brighton, near Little Bay, Strewn over Access Pathways as Result of Passage of Hurricane Ivan (2004)..........................................................................356 Southwest Coast, East of Negril Lighthouse............................................................357 Topography of Portmore and Approaches..............................................................358 Portmore Evacuation Routes and Shelters...............................................................360 Map of the Passage Fort and Hunts Bay area, part of Robertson MAP of the County of Surrey, 1804.....................................................................................................................361 Existing Regulations for Determining Setbacks from High Water Line...................367 A Hotel Built on Top of Debris Ridge, Southwest Coast of Jamaica............................368 The International Satellite Communication System at the NMC.............................372 Inspecting the Sensors of the Automatic Weather Station at the NMIA..................373 UNDP Technology Needs Assessment Process..............................................................378 Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy and Industrial Processes Sectors (1994).........380 The Principle of OTEC..............................................................................................386
TABLES Table 1.1: Table 1.2: Table 1.3: Table 1.4: Table 1.5: Table 2.1: Table 2.2: Table2.3: Table 2.4: Table 2.5: Table 2.6: Table 2.7: Table 2.8: Table 2.9: Table 2.10: Table 2.11: Table 2.12: Table 2.14: Table 2.15: Table 2.16: Table 2.17: Table 2.18: Table 2.19: Table 2.20 Table 2.21: Distribution of Women in the Reproductive Ages (15-49) years..........................38 Comparison of End of Year Populations in Jamaica (2000 & 2007..........................40 Urban-Rural Distribution by Parish (1970-2001)......................................................40 Housing Quality Index for Jamaica.......................................................................42 Sources of New Official Development Assistance, 2001-07 (US$ Million).........46 Summary of National GHG Emissions in Jamaica (2000).................................51 Energy Sector Source Categories Present in Jamaica.................................60 Summary of Emissions from the Energy Industries Sector (Fuel Combustion) (Gg) (2000)...............................................................................................................61 GHG Emissions from Fuel Combustions in Manufacturing Industries (2000).......................................................................................................62 GHG Emissions (Gg) from the Transport Sector (2000).............64 Available LTO data at Jamaicas International Airports (2000-05).......................65 Available LTO data at Jamaicas Domestic Aerodromes (2000-05).....................65 Aviation Fuel Sales (2000-05)...................................................66 Summary of Aviation Emissions (2000)........................................66 Summary of Domestic LTO Emissions and Fuel Use (2003-04)............66 Summary of Domestic Cruise Emissions and Fuel Use (2003-05)............67 Breakdown of the Jamaican Vehicle Fleet in 2005................70 MOBILE6 Input Parameters#....................................................................................71 Annual Vehicle Registrations (2000-05)............................................72 Estimates of Weekly Distance Travelled in the Past Week* (2007)...................72 Estimates of Motor Vehicle Emissions (2000)................................73 Estimates of Motor Vehicle Emissions (2005)...........................73 Railway Emission Estimates (Gg) (2000-05)..........................75 provides the emissions for water-borne and other navigation........................75 Emissions from Commercial/Institutional and Residential Sources (2000).......75
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Table 2.22: Table 2.23: Table 2.24: Table 2.25: Table 2.26: Table 2.27: Table 2.28: Table 2.29: Table 2.30: Table 2.31: Table 2.32: Table 2.33: Table 2.34: Table 2.35: Table 2.36: Table 2.37: Table 2.38: Table 2.39: Table 2.40: Table 2.41: Table 2.42: Table 2.43: Table 2.44: Table 2.45: Table 2.46: Table 2.47: Table 2.48: Table 2.48: Table 2.49: Table 2.50: Table 2.51: Table 2.52: Table 2.53: Table 2.54: Table 2.45: Table 2.56: Table 2.57: Table 2.58: Table 2.59: Table 2.60: Table 2.61: Table 2.62: Table 2.63:
Summary of Emissions for Non-Specified Sources (2000)...................................77 Emissions from the Oil & Natural Gas Sector (2000).................78 Industrial Processes and Product Use Source Categories Present in Jamaica..................80 CO2 Emissions from the Mineral Industry (2000).........................................81 Emissions from Non-Energy Product Uses of Fuels and Other Chemical Products (2000)....................................................................................................................83 Net Production and Consumption and Emissions for Asphalt (2000-05)..............85 Main Application Areas for HFCs and PFCs and their GWP and Indication of HFCs Imported into Jamaica................................................................................86 Bulk imports of HFCs (2000-05)...................................................87 Imports of Refrigeration and Air-Conditioning Equipment (2000-06)...................87 Equipment Profile for Jamaica (2002)..................................................88 Annual HFC Emissions from Refrigeration and Air Conditioning (2000-05)............89 Annual Emissions for HFCs used as Solvents (2000-05).....................................90 Nitrous Oxide Imports and Emissions (2000-04)...........................90 Source Categories for NMVOC Emissions Present in Jamaica......................91 NMVOC Emissions from the Food and Beverage Industry (2000-05).............91 Typical Solvent Content for Paints............................................92 Local Paint Production Data (2000-05)...................................92 NMVOC Emissions from Paints (2000-05).............................93 Evaporative Emissions from Commercial/Consumer Solvent Use....................93 Evaporative Emissions from Commercial/Consumer Solvent Use (2000-05).......94 National Land Use/Cover Classes and Equivalent GHG Categories......................97 Land Use Classes Areas (ha) converted to GHG Classes...........................99 Land use/cover conversion matrix for Jamaica, 1989-98.................100 Annual land use loss, transfer and gain............................101 Matrix showing annual land use conversion by GHG Class...............................102 Summary of land use areas according to IPCC Inventory Classes (2000-05)102 Summary of total annual land use areas from country specific data.............103 Summary of total annual land use areas from country specific data (continued)............104 Area (%) of Jamaica by Land Use, Holdridge Life Zone and GHG ecological classes..................................................................................................................105 Summary of annual removals (2000-05)..........................................107 Summary of annual removals...................................108 Total volume and aboveground living biomass by forest type...........109 Area (%) of Jamaica by IPCC Soil Classes.................................................110 Areas used for the calculation in 3B1a..........................................................111 Volumes used for the calculation in 3B1a: Loss of carbon from wood removals......................................................................................................112 Volumes used for the calculation in 3B1a: Loss of carbon from fuelwood removals112 Areas used for the calculation in 3B1a: Loss of carbon from disturbance.......112 Carbon accounting for ForestLand Remaining ForestLand and Land Converted to ForestLand..............................................................................................113 Areas used for the calculation in 3B2a: CropLand remaining CropLand........113 Areas used for the calculation in 3B2b: Land Converted to CropLand..........114 Carbon accounting for CropLand Remaining CropLand and Land converted to CropLand.................................................................................................................114 Grassland Remaining GrassLand: Annual change in carbon stocks in biomass, 200006........................................................................................................................114 Carbon accounting for WetLand Remaining WetLand and Land converted to WetLand (2000-06)...............................................................................................................115
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Table 2.64: Table 2.65: Table 2.66: Table 2.67: Table 2.68: Table 2.69: Table 2.70: Table 2.71: Table 2.72: Table 2.73: Table 2.74: Table 2.75: Table 2.76: Table 2.77: Table 2.78: Table 2.79: Table 2.80: Table 2.81: Table 2.82: Table 2.83: Table 2.84: Table 2.85: Table 2.86: Table 2.87: Table 2.89: Table 2.90: Table 2.91: Table 2.92: Table 2.93: Table 2.94: Table 2.95: Table 2.96:
Carbon accounting for Settlement Remaining Settlement and Land converted to Settlement (2000-06)...............................................................................................115 Carbon accounting for Other Land Remaining Other Land and Land converted to Other Land (2000-06)......................................................................................................115 Emissions from Biomass Burning (Sugar Cane harvesting) (2000-05)...................116 Approach 1 Uncertainty Analysis for the Forestry subsector.................................117 Total Population of the Major Livestock Categories in Jamaica (2000-05).............119 Estimates of Methane Emissions from Enteric Fermentation in Jamaica (2000-05).......120 Fractions of Animals Using the Dry Lot Manure Management System (MMS) and Estimates of Direct Methane Emissions from Manure Management in Jamaica (200005)................................................................................................................................121 CO2 emissions (Gg) From Lime and Urea Application to Agricultural Soils in Jamaica (2000-05)................................................................................................................122 Estimates of Direct N2O Emissions from Manure Management in Jamaica (200005).........................................................................................................................123 Estimates of Indirect N2O Emissions (Gg) from Manure Management in Jamaica (2000-05).......................................................................................................................125 Estimates of Direct N2O Emissions from Managed Soils in Jamaica (2000-05)............126 Estimates of indirect N2O Emissions from Managed Soils in Jamaica (2000-05)..........127 Uncertainty Levels for Parameters Used In the Direct and Indirect Emissions of N2O from Managed Soils in Jamaica..............................................................................129 Population Data (2001)...........................................................................................130 Estimated Methane Emissions from Domestic Wastewater Treatment Facilities in Jamaica (2000-05)..................................................................................................131 Annual Production, Wastewater Generation and COD values for Primary Industries in Jamaica (2000-06).................................................................................................132 Methane Emissions from Industrial Wastewater Treatment Plants in Jamaica (2000-05)..............................................................................................................133 Estimated Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Wastewater in Jamaica (2000-05).............133 Estimated Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Biodigesters in Jamaica (2000-05).................................................................................................................134 Total Industrial Waste (tonnes/yr) in Jamaica (1999-03)........................................136 Estimated Methane Emissions from Municipal and Industrial Solid Waste Disposal Sites in Jamaica (1990-05).............................................................................................136 Quantity of Waste Incinerated Annually at Lascos Whitemarl Facility (200005).........................................................................................................................138 Estimated Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Incineration in Jamaica (2000-05)...................................................................................................................139 Estimated Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Incineration in Jamaica (2000-05)...........139 Estimated Carbon Dioxide, Nitrous Oxide & Methane Emissions from Open Burning in Jamaica (2000-05)....................................................................................................141 Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions (Gg) from the Waste Sector in Jamaica (2000-05).141 Total Methane Emissions (Gg) from the Waste Sector in Jamaica (2000-05)141 Total Nitrous Oxide Emissions (Gg) from the Waste Sector in Jamaica (200005)........142 Percentage Uncertainty in Methane Emission Estimations for Domestic Waste Water Facilities............................................................................................................... 143 Percentage Uncertainty in Methane Emission Estimations from Industrial Wastewater Facilities.................................................................................................................144 Percentage Uncertainty in Nitrous Oxide Emissions from Waste Water......................144 Percentage Uncertainty for Estimated Methane Emissions from Biodigesters...........145
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Table 2.97: Table 2.98: Table 2.99: Table 3.4: Table 3.5: Table 3.6: Table 3.4: Table 3.5: Table 3.6: Table 3.7: Table 3.8: Table 4.1: Table 4.2: Table 4.3: Table 4.4: Table 4.5: Table 4.6: Table 4.7: Table 4.8: Table 4.8: Table 4.8: Table 4.10: Table 4.11: Table 4.12: Table 4.13: Table 4.14: Table 4.15: Table 4.16: Table 4.17: Table 4.18: Table 4.19: Table 14.20 Table 14.21: Table 4.22:
Percentage Uncertainty for Methane Emissions from Solid Waste Disposal Sites.........146 Percentage Uncertainty in Methane, Carbon Dioxide and Nitrous Oxide Estimations for Medical and Industrial/Private Sector Waste Incineration..............................................147 Percentage Uncertainty in Methane, Carbon Dioxide and Nitrous Oxide Estimations for Incineration by Open Burning of Waste..........................................................................148 Select Socio-Economic Indicators for Jamaica (2000-08)...............................................151 Gross Value Added By Industry At Constant (2003) Prices (1999-08), in $' Million.............................................................................................................................153 Percent Contribution to Total Goods and Services Production in Basic Values at Constant (2003) Prices (1999-08)..................................................................................................154 LEAP Model Input Data..................................................................................................167 Fuel Choices for Various Demand and Transformation Processes.................173 Process and Fuel Combinations for Potential Scenario Options.........................174 Jamaicas Motor Vehicle Fleet in 2000, 2005 and 2008.................................................189 Summary of VKMT Estimates from Surveys..........................190 Summary of Climate Modelling Applications...........................................................246 Best Estimates of Absolute Temperature Change and Percentage Change in Rainfall for Jamaica (2050s, 2080s)..........................................................................................248 Farm Size Distribution and Number of Farmers in 2007........................................251 Loan Allocation to the Agricultural Sector 2002-2006 (J$ 000)253 Agricultural Production Index for Jamaican Agriculture (1986 to 2006; 1986=100)........................................................................................................................258 Average Main Climatic Requirements of the Main Export and Domestic Crops of Jamaica.....................................................................................................................261 Estimates of Direct and Indirect Costs to Agriculture from Recent Storm Damage............................................................................................................................263 Estimates of Direct Costs to Different Agricultural Sectors from Recent Storm Damage...................................................................................................................264 Estimates of Direct Costs to Different Agricultural Sectors from Recent Storm Damage..................................................................................................................267 Estimates of Direct Costs to Different Agricultural Sectors from Recent Storm Damage..................................................................................................................268 Climate Change Adaptation Recommendations for the Agriculture Sector.............274 Jamaicas Hydrological Basins and Water Management Units.......................................278 Approximate Economic Contributions and Water Use, by Sectors (2005)..............282 Summary of National Water Commission Water Supply Performance (2002-06).......283 Annual Water Resources Resource Demand Balance (106 m3/yr), by Water Management Unit (1995)..............................................................................................................285 Estimated Losses to NWC Resulting from Recent Tropical Storms / Hurricanes (2002-05).................................................................................................................288 Examples of Impacts from Tropical Storms / Hurricanes on the Aquatic Environment...........................................................................................................289 Estimated Water Resources Availability Demand Balances for the Kingston, Rio Cobre and Rio Minho Basins (Mm3/yr).............................................................................295 Estimated Changes in Basin Q90 Flows, as Percentage of Existing Mean Annual Flow.......................................................................................................................299 Climate Change Adaptation Recommendations for the Water Sector.......................300 shows the leading causes of hospitalization and death in Jamaica in 2005............303 Causes of death in the under five age group in Jamaica (2000-05).........................304 Sensitivity of Communicable Diseases to Climate Change in Jamaica....................309
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Table 4.23: Table 4.24: Table 4.25: Table 4.26: Table 4.28: Table 4.29: Table 4.30: Table 4.32: Table 4.33: Table 4.34: Table 4.35: Table 5.1: Table 5.2: Table 5.3: Table 5.4: Table 5.5: Table 5.6: Table 5.7: Table 5.8: Table 5.9:
Main Vector-Borne Diseases, Populations at Risk and Burden of Diseases....................................................................................................................312 Distribution of Dengue Peaks among ENSO Phases (Source Caribbean Epidemiology Centre, 1980-2001)...................................................................................................314 SWOT Analysis of Adaptive Capacity of Health Sector in Jamaica to Climate Change....................................................................................................................327 Adaptation Options for Coping with Increased Threat of Dengue Fever in Jamaica....................................................................................................................329 Adaptation Options for Coping with Increased Threat of Dengue Fever in Jamaica.............................................................................................................................330 Data (mean values) from NOAA Buoy 41018 (August 1994 to January 1996)..............335 Projected Global Average Surface Warming and Sea-Level Rise by 2100...............340 Parameters Used for Calculating the Coastal Vulnerability Indices................................362 Coastal Vulnerability Indices for Sea-Level Rise............................................................365 Approximate Future Return Periods for Storm Surge Static Water Levels that Would Flood Current Elevations Above Sea-Level at Sangster International Airport and Portmore...........................................................................................................................366 Possible Water Level Rise Due To Extreme Rainfall Events, Hunts Bay...............366 Estimated Budget and Costs for Improving Jamaicas Systematic Observation Systems............................................................................................................................376 Summary of Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Jamaica (Gg) (1994)..................................379 Importation of Petroleum to Jamaica (2003)...................................................................380 Fuel Consumption by Various Sectors (1998 and 2003).................................................381 A Possible Future Energy Scenario for 2015...................................................................383 The Various Natural Regions within the Coastal Zone of Jamaica.................................387 Matrix of Required Skills for Climate Change................................................................392 Issues Prioritization Matrix..............................................................................................393 Capacity Constraints Matrix............................................................................................394
Appendix 3.1: Scenarios for the Demand and Non-Energy Sector Effects.............................................222 Appendix 3.2: Scenarios for Transformation and Energy Resources.................................230 Appendix 3.3: MEM Energy Projects and Proposals Assigned to Mitigation Assessment Scenarios..................................................................................................................232 Appendix 1: Table 1: Table 2 : Project Concept for Improvement of the Systematic Observation Systems of the Meteorological Service of the Government of Jamaica...................................................393 Proposed Locations of Additional Weather Stations.......................................................401 Proposed Budget for Additional Weather Stations..........................................................401
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Meteorological Service is Jamaicas national focal point to the United Nations Framework ConventiononClimateChange(UNFCCC)andwasresponsibleforthepreparationandsubmissionofthis Second National Communication. The process was undertaken by the Environment and Disaster ManagementUnitoftheMinistryofLocalGovernment.Afulltimeprojectmanagerwashiredfortwo yearsandbasedintheUNDPCountryOfficewhoutilizedtheskillsofinternationalandlocalconsultants and several national experts to prepare this National Communication. The persons listed below are beingacknowledgedfortheirsterlingcontributiontothecompletionofthisdocument.
Names Mrs.SylviaMcGill Mr.JefferySpooner Mr.MinhPham Dr.MargaretJonesWilliams Dr.DavidSmith Ms.NicoleBrown Ms.SashayShirley Mr.DaleRankine Dr.ClaudeDavis Dr.LeslieSimpson Dr.SergioGonzales Mr.EarlGreene Ms.NicoleAllen&staff Mr.RawlestonMoore Dr.MarkFutter ProfessorAnthonyChen Dr.MichaelTaylor ProfessorEdwardRobinson Ms.ShakiraKhan Mr.KevinMorrison Mr.OwenEvelyn Ms.IantheSmith Mr.AnthonyMcKenzie Mr.HopetonPeterson Ms.LeonieBarnaby Mrs.AnnastasiaCalnick Mr.KeithPorter Ms.AngellaGraham Mr.RichardThompson Ms.NicoleWestHayles Ms.HeloiseWest Organization MeteorologicalService MeteorologicalService UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme Consultant ClaudeDavis&Associates CaribbeanAgricultureResearchDevelopment Institute Consultant Consultant IslandRevenueDepartment Consultant Role Director/ UNFCCCFocalPoint ProjectCoordinator ResidentRepresentative ProgrammeManager ProgrammeManager ProgrammeAssistant ProgrammeAssistant ProjectProposal GHGInventory GHGInventory
GHGInventory GHGInventory Mitigationassessment TechnologyNeeds Assessment Consultant V&AAssessments ClimateStudyGroup,Mona V&AAssessments ClimateStudyGroup,Mona V&AAssessments Marine Geology Unit, University of the West V&AAssessments Indies Marine Geology Unit, University of the West V&AAssessments Indies Consultant V&AAssessments ForestryDepartment(MoAL) V&AAssessments Environment&EngineeringManagersLimited V&AAssessments NationalEnvironmentPlanningAgency(NEPA) ProjectSteeringCommittee PlanningInstituteofJamaica(PIOJ) ProjectSteeringCommittee EnvironmentManagementDivision(OPM) ProjectSteeringCommittee EnvironmentManagementDivision(OPM) ProjectSteeringCommittee ForestryDepartment ProjectSteeringCommittee WaterResourcesAuthority ProjectSteeringCommittee OfficeofDisasterPreparedness&Emergency ProjectSteeringCommittee Management WestAssociates Logistics Communication2007 Logistics
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LIST OF ACRONYMS
AAJ BEFI BHC BOD5 CAA CAFE CARICOM CCCCC CCCL CDERA CGE CH4 CO COD COP CORINAIR CVI DOC EDMS EFJ EMEP ESSJ EU FAA FAOSTAT FF FOEB FRA GDP GEF GHGs Gg GVWR GWPs HC HDV2B HDV3 HDV4 HDV5 HDV6 HDV7 HDV8A HDV8B HFCs HWM ICAO AirportsAuthorityofJamaica Biomassexpansionfactor BustamanteHospitalforChildren BiochemicalOxygenDemand CivilAviationAuthority CorporateAverageFuelEconomy CaribbeanCommunity CaribbeanCommunityClimateChangeCentre CaribbeanCementCompanyLimited CaribbeanDisasterEmergencyResponseAgency ConsultativeGroupofExpertsonnonAnnexINationalCommunications Methane Carbonmonoxide Chemicaloxygendemand (UNFCCC)ConferenceoftheParties COReINventoryofAIRemissions CoastalVulnerabilityIndex DegradableOrganicCarbon Emissions&DispersionModellingSystem EnvironmentalFoundationofJamaica MonitoringandEvaluationoftheLongrangeTransmissionofAirPollutantsinEurope EconomicandSocialSurveyofJamaica EuropeanUnion FederalAviationAdministrationoftheUnitedStatesofAmerica FoodandAgricultureOrganisationwebsite ForestLandRemainingForestLand Fueloilequivalentbarrels ForestResourceAssessment GrossDomesticProduct GlobalEnvironmentalFacility Greenhousegases Gigagram Grossvehicleweightrating Globalwarmingpotentials Hydrocarbon Class2bHeavyDutyVehicles(850110,000lbs.GVWR) Class3HeavyDutyVehicles(10,00114,000lbs.GVWR) Class4HeavyDutyVehicles(14,00116,000lbs.GVWR) Class5HeavyDutyVehicles(16,00119,500lbs.GVWR) Class6HeavyDutyVehicles(19,50126,000lbs.GVWR) Class7HeavyDutyVehicles(26,00133,000lbs.GVWR) Class8aHeavyDutyVehicles(33,00160,000lbs.GVWR) Class8bHeavyDutyVehicles(>60,000lbs.GVWR) Hydrofluorocarbons HighWaterMark InternationalCivilAviationOrganization
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ICZM INC IPCC ISIC JCF JEP JPPC JPS JSLC JTB JUTC KMA LDT1 LDT2 LDT3 LDT4 LDV LF LPG LTOs MACC MAI MCF MDIs MEMT MGU MHWM MMS MSL MSW MSWB MSWH N2O NCSP NDBC NEPA NFPB NMIA NMVOC NOAA NOx NRCA NSWMA NWC ODPEM ODS ODU PDI
IntegratedCoastalZoneManagement InitialNationalCommunication IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange InternationalStandardIndustrialClassificationofAllEconomicActivities JamaicaConstabularyForce JamaicaEnergyPartners JamaicaPrivatePowerCompany JamaicaPublicServiceCompany JamaicaSurveyofLivingConditions JamaicaTouristBoard JamaicaUrbanTransitCompany KingstonMetropolitanArea LightDutyTrucks1(06,000lbs.GVWR,03750lbs.LVW) LightDutyTrucks2(06,000lbs.GVWR,37515750lbs.LVW) LightDutyTrucks3(6,0018,500lbs.GVWR,05750lbs.ALVW) LightDutyTrucks4(6,0018,500lbs.GVWR,5751lbs.andgreaterALVW) LightDutyVehicles(PassengerCars) LandConvertedtoForestLand Liquefiedpetroleumgas Landingsandtakeoffs MainstreamingAdaptationtoClimateChangeinNationalDevelopmentPlanning Meanannualincrement MethaneCorrectionFactor MeteredDoseInhalers MinistryofEnergy,MiningandTelecommunication MarineGeologyUnit,UniversityoftheWestIndies MeanHighWaterMark Manuremanagementsystem MeanSeaLevel MunicipalSolidWaste Municipalsolidwasteburned MeanSignificantWaveHeight Nitrousoxide NationalCommunicationsSupportProgramme NationalDataBuoyCentre NationalEnvironmentandPlanningAgency NationalFamilyPlanningBoard NormanManleyInternationalAirport Nonmethanevolatileorganiccompounds NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration Nitrogenoxides NaturalResourcesConservationAuthority NationalSolidWasteManagementAuthority NationalWaterCommission OfficeofDisasterPreparednessandEmergencyManagement Ozonedepletingsubstances Oxidisedduringuse PowerDissipationIndex
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PFCs PIOJ PSP RAC RADA SBSTA SIA SIDS SMB SNAP97 SNC SO2 SRC SST STATIN SWIL TOR UDC UHWI UNDP UNEP UNESCO UNFCCC UNITAR USEPA USGS V&A VOB/ha WRA WTO
Perfluorocarbons PlanningInstituteofJamaica PermanentSamplePlots Refrigerationandairconditioning RuralAgriculturalDevelopmentAuthority (UNFCCC)SubsidiaryBodyforScientificandTechnologicalAdvice SangsterInternationalAirport SmallIslandDevelopmentStates St.MargaretsBay SelectedNomenclatureforAirPollution SecondNationalCommunication Sulphurdioxide ScientificResearchCouncil SeaSurfaceTemperatures StatisticalInstituteofJamaica SmithWarnerInternationalLtd. TermsofReference UrbanDevelopmentCorporation UniversityHospitaloftheWestIndies UnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme UnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme UnitedNationsEducationalScientificandCulturalOrganization UnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange UnitedNationsInstituteforTrainingandResearch UnitedStatesEnvironmentalProtectionAgency UnitedStatesGeologicalSurvey Vulnerability&Adaptation Volumeoverbarkperhectare WaterResourcesAuthority WorldTourismOrganization
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BACKGROUND (i) TheUNFCCCContext The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) entered into force on 21 March1994andsetsanoverallframeworkforintergovernmentaleffortstotacklethechallengeposed by climate change. All Parties must report on the steps they are taking or envisage undertaking to implementtheUNFCCC(Articles4.1and12.1)by:reportingtotheConferenceoftheParties(COP)on emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol(greenhousegasinventories);nationalor,whereappropriate,regionalprogrammescontaining measures to mitigate, and to facilitate adequate adaptation to climate change (general description of stepstakenorenvisagedbythePartytoimplementtheConvention);andanyotherinformationthat the Party considers relevant tothe achievement of the objective of the Convention. (UNFCCC, 2003) ThisnationalreportisreferredtoasaNationalCommunication. Jamaica ratified the Convention on January 6, 1995, by an act of Parliament and the instrument of ratificationwasdepositedattheUnitedNationsinApril1995.TheMeteorologicalServiceistheUNFCCC national focal point and responsible for submission of Jamaicas national communications. Jamaica submitteditsInitialNationalCommunicationtotheUNFCCCon21November2000. (ii) FinancialandTechnicalAssistanceforPreparingNationalCommunications TheGlobalEnvironmentFacility The Global Environment Facility (GEF) provides financial assistance to nonAnnex I Parties to prepare their national communications under guidance from the COP. This financing is made available under projectscalledenablingactivities,whichareimplementedthroughtheUnitedNationsDevelopment Programme(UNDP),theUnitedNationsEnvironmentProgramme(UNEP),andWorldBank. KeydifferencesbetweenfundingforInitialandSecondNationalCommunications Countries that chose expedited funding for their Initial National Communications received up to $350,000 from the GEF. For Second National Communications, this sum rose to $420,000, which includes$15,000foraninitialstocktakingexercise,stakeholderconsultationsandthepreparationofthe project proposal. This preliminary exercise is a critical step so that Second National Communications buildontheresults,experiencesandlessonslearnedofInitialNationalCommunications,thusensuring improvementsarecarriedoutinamorecosteffectivemannerandarenotduplicative. TheSecretariatoftheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange OnefunctionoftheUNFCCCSecretariatistofacilitatetheprovisionoffinancialandtechnicalassistance to nonAnnex I Parties as they prepare national communications. One mechanism for providing assistanceisthroughtheConsultativeGroupofExpertsonnonAnnexINationalCommunications(CGE). In the region, the CGE conducted handson training workshops on greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories andvulnerabilityandadaptation(V&A)assessments,aswellasaglobaloneonmitigationanalysisinthe contextofthepreparationofnationalcommunications.Thethematictrainingmaterialsdevelopedand
usedatthesetrainingworkshopshavebeenusedbyJamaicannationalexpertsduringthepreparation ofnationalcommunications. TheUNDP/UNEPNationalCommunicationsSupportProgramme TheNationalCommunicationsSupportProgramme(NCSP)isaUNDP/UNEPproject,fundedbytheGEF, which provides technical and policy support to nonAnnex I Parties for the preparation of national communications.TheNCSPisbasedattheUNDPofficeinNewYork.ThegovernmentsofSwitzerland andtheUSAhavecofinancedNCSPactivities. Duringitssecondphase(20052010),theNCSPissustainingcapacitybuildingeffortsthroughtechnical and policy support, knowledge management, and communications and outreach. The NCSP offers an integratedpackageoftechnicalandpolicysupporttoenhancecapacityinnonAnnexIcountriesandto better meet the needs of countries, such as targeted, indepth and issuespecific workshops and technical backstopping. The NCSP also promotes the quality and comprehensiveness of national communications and the timeliness of their submission, and assists nonAnnex I Parties to better incorporateclimatechangeintonationaldevelopmentpolicies. (iii) OtherResources Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change into National Development Planning: In the Caribbean, theWorldBankimplementedafouryear(20042007),GEFfundedproject,MainstreamingAdaptation to Climate Change into National Development Planning (MACC), which aimed to integrate climate changeandvariabilityintotheagendasofthetourism,agriculture,fisheriesandinfrastructuresectors. This regional project included the 14 member states of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM) namely Antigua&Barbuda,TheBahamas,Barbados,Belize,Dominica,Grenada,Guyana,Haiti,Jamaica,St.Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent & the Grenadines, Trinidad & Tobago, and Suriname. The project was implementedthroughtheCaribbeanCommunityClimateChangeCentre(CCCCC),theregionalcentrefor CaribbeanclimatechangeactivitieslocatedinBelize. CaribbeanCommunityClimateChangeCentre(CCCCC):ThestatedmissionoftheCCCCCisthroughits roleasaCentreofExcellence,theCentrewillsupportthepeopleoftheCaribbeanastheyaddressthe impactofclimatevariabilityandchangeonallaspectsofeconomicdevelopmentthroughtheprovision of timely forecasts and analyses of potentially hazardous impacts of both natural and maninduced climatic changes on the environment, and the development of special programmes with create opportunitiesforsustainabledevelopment. TheCentrecoordinatestheCaribbeanregionsresponsetoclimatechange.OfficiallyopenedinAugust 2005,theCentreisthekeynodeforinformationonclimatechangeissuesandontheregionsresponse tomanagingandadaptingtoclimatechangeintheCaribbean.Itistheofficialrepositoryandclearing houseforregionalclimatechangedata,providingclimatechangerelatedpolicyadviceandguidelinesto CARICOMMemberStatesthroughtheCARICOMSecretariat.Inthisrole,theCentreisrecognisedbythe UNFCCC,UNEP,UNDP,andotherinternationalagenciesasthefocalpointforclimatechangeissuesin the Caribbean. It has also been recognised by the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR)asaCentreofExcellence.
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UNDP Jamaica: The UNDP Country Office in Jamaica provided $USD 10,000 for the communications strategy for the report, Voices for Climate Change. It provided a further $USD 50,000 for a communicationsandadvocacycomponent,whichincludedhighlevel,roundtablesessions.
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CHAPTER 1: NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 1.1 HistoryandPolitics JamaicaisanislandnationintheCaribbeanSeaandapartofthegroupofislandsthatareknownasthe GreaterAntilles1.Jamaicaislocatedapproximately145kilometres(90miles)southoftheislandofCuba and was discovered by Christopher Columbus in 1494. At that time, it was inhabited by Arawakan speakingTainoIndians,whohadnameditXaymaca,whichmeanstheLandofWoodandWaterorthe LandofSprings.UponpossessionbytheSpanish,itbecameknownasSantiagoandthenJamaicaafter itwaspossessedbytheBritishin1655.Jamaicaachievedfullindependencein1962. Jamaica has a constitutional monarchy, represented by a Governor General who is the local representativeofQueenElizabethII(thedefactoheadofstatewiththetitle,QueenofJamaica).The GovernorGeneralisnominatedbythePrimeMinisterandthecabinetnominatedbythemonarch.The governmentisbicameral,withaHouseofRepresentativesandaSenate.Membersofthelowerhouse (MPs)aredirectlyelectedanditisfromtheseMPsthatthePrimeMinisterischosen.Membersofthe SenatearechosenbythePrimeMinisterandtheLeaderofOpposition. Administratively,thenationisdividedinto14parisheswithinwhichexist60parliamentaryconstituency seatsandalsonumerousparishcouncils.Thecountryhastraditionallyhadatwopartysystemwhich hasbeendominatedbythePeoplesNationalPartyandtheJamaicaLabourParty.TheJamaicansystem ofgovernmentexhibitsarelativelystabledemocracy.Sinceindependence,thecountryhasneverhada coupdtatandelections,especiallyinrecenttimes,havebeenjudgedfreeandfair. Jamaica is an active member in CARICOM (Caribbean Community), a regional freetrade association basedinGuyanawhosemainpurposesaretopromoteeconomicintegrationandcooperationamongits membersandtocoordinateforeignpolicy.ThetreatyestablishingCARICOMwassignedon4July,1973; arevisedtreatywassignedin2001. JamaicaisalsoamemberoftheAllianceofSmallIslandStates,AOSISa coalitionofsmallislandsand
lowlyingcoastalcountriesthatsharesimilardevelopmentchallengesandconcernsaboutthe environment,especiallytheirvulnerabilitytotheadverseeffectsofglobalclimatechange2.
1.2 PopulationandDemographics 1.2.1 Population&GrowthRate Jamaica is the third most populous Anglophone country in the Americas after the USA and Canada. Official statistics from the Planning Institute of Jamaica (PIOJ) and Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) show that, as at 2007, Jamaica had a resident population of 2,682,100 (representing end of yearpopulation). Demographically,Jamaicaspopulationhas consistentlycomprisedfourmajorethnic groups:black,90percent;EastIndian,1.5percent;whites,0.4percent;andmultiracial,7.4percent.
1 2
TheGreaterAntillesare;Jamaica,Cuba,PuertoRicoandHispaniola. http://www.sidsnet.org/aosis/about.html
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With regard to overall human and social development the country is classified as at Stage III in the Demographic Transition Model.3 Although the population has been growing steadily at an average annualrateofabout0.5to0.7percentsince2000,ithasnotreachedbeyond3million(Figure1.1). Figure1.1:JamaicanPopulationGrowthandGrowthRates(200007)
(Sources:PIOJ/STATIN) Therearetwomainreasonsthatthepopulationhasremainedrelativelystableoverthepastdecade: 1. The rate of natural increase (which represents the difference between crude birth rate and crude death rate) has shown significant declines over the period 200007, falling from 15 per thousandin2000to10.6perthousandin2007;and 2. Theimpactofasteadystreamofexternalmigrationoverthedecades(Figure1.2).
This is a model used to explain the gradual change in demographic structure of a country as it moves from pre-industrial to an industrialized society. Stage Three (III) is typified by: Increasing urbanization Introduction of compulsory education acts Increasing female literacy and employment Improvements in contraceptive technology and methods
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Figure1.2:KeyJamaicanPopulationGrowthStatistics(200007)(Sources:PIOJ/STATIN)
Thereisnothingthatsuggestsanupwardtrendincrudebirthratesforthefuture.Rather,asshownin Table1.1,therehavebeenrelativedeclinesofwomeninyoungeragegroupscohortswhoareentering thereproductivephase(i.e.,1519,2024,and2529years)over200007.Therehasalsobeenaserious driveonFamilyPlanningandReproductiveHealthoverthepastthreedecades.Forinstance,the2006 10 Strategic Planning Framework for the National Family Planning Board (NFPB) was designed to achieve: [a] expanded access to existing but underused family planning and reproductive health (RH) optionsforwomen,[b]improvedaccesstoRHinformationforadolescents/youth,[c]expandedaccess toRHinformationservicesformen,and[d]promotesafesexualbehaviour,attitudesandpracticesto reducetheprevalenceofSTDsandHIV/AIDS.Atpresent,theNFPBtargetsmorethan0.5millionofthe population4topromotefamilyplanningmethods,ofwhich250,000attendclinics. Table7.1:DistributionofWomenintheReproductiveAges(1549)years
YEAR AGEGROUP 2003 1519 17.7 2024 15.6 2529 15.6 3034 15.4 3539 14.9 4044 12.1 4549 8.7 Source:PIOJESSJ2007 2004 17.4 15.4 15.5 15.4 15.2 12.3 8.8 2005 17.1 15.1 15.5 15.5 15.4 12.6 8.8 2006 16.9 14.9 15.4 15.6 15.7 12.7 8.8 2007 16.6 14.6 15.3 15.7 15.9 12.9 9.0
With respect to migration, official statistics on net external movement show that annually approximately 20,000 more Jamaicans migrate from the island than foreigners come to settle. The dominant stream of outward migration from Jamaica is to the USA. Official statistics from the
68 per cent of women in the reproductive age group of 15-49 years
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Immigration and Naturalization Service (USA) shows a strong and negative correlation5 (0.9989) between the age cohort of migrants and also the number of migrants who migrate from each age cohort.Inshort,theyoungertheagecohortisthelargerthenumberofmigrants.Thispatternforboth sexesineachagecohorthasexistedasfarbackas1996. TheJamaicanpopulationisshowingmarginalevidenceofageing.Theover75agegrouphasrisenfrom 3.1percentofthetotalendofyearpopulationin2000to3.6percentin2004and3.8percentin2007. Incontrast,the04agecohortfellfrom11.3percentin2000to9.2percentin2004and8.4percentin 2007. As noted earlier, these trends can be attributed to the declining birth rate and the impact of migration(whichisusuallyyoungeragegroups).Increasedlifeexpectancyisanotherkeyvariable. FortheJamaicanpopulation,lifeexpectancyhasaveraged72.1yearssince2000butistrendingupeach year.Thecurrentworldaverageis78years.Ceterisparibus,projectionsshowthatatthecurrentrates, lifeexpectancywillreachcurrentworldaveragein2097.Improvedhealthcareisakeyfactor.Although adevelopingcountry,Jamaicahasmadeconsiderablestridesoverthepastthreedecadeswithregardto healthcare,especiallysoforwomen.Ahigherpercentageofpeoplefromallsocioeconomicgroupsare reportingillnessesandinjuries(10.3and14.1percentofmalesandfemalesrespectivelyin2006versus 9.7 and 11.8 per cent in 1996). Health care expenditure at both private and public facilities has also increasedbetween199606.Allstatisticsbothrealandnominalshowanincreaseinprivateinvestment invisitstofacilitiesanddrugpurchasesovertheperiod.Realmeanhealthcareexpenditureonvisitsto privatehealthfacilitieshasincreasedby9.8percentbetween199606andby170percentforpublic healthfacilitiesoverthesameperiod.Withregardtodrugpurchases,therehavebeenrealincreasesin averageexpenditurefrombothprivateandpublichealthcarefacilitiesbetween199606.Privatereal increasesinaveragedrugpurchasesincreased211percent.Allthesevariablescanbeseenasassisting anincreaseinlifeexpectancy. 1.2.2 PopulationDistribution
MapofJamaica(Parishes)
Source:http://prestwidge.com/images/jatoday.gif
This variable represents two major comparison variables spearman rank correlation co-efficient and also the linear regression correlation coefficient.
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Since2000,thelargestpopulationconcentrationsarefoundintheparishesofKingstonandStAndrew (24.7percent)andStCatherine(18.5percent),withthelowestconcentrationinHanover(2.6percent). FurtherdetailsareshowninTable1.2below. Table1.8:ComparisonofEndofYearPopulationsinJamaica(2000&2007)

PARISH Kingston&St Andrew StThomas Portland StMary StAnn Trelawny StJames Hanover Westmoreland StElizabeth Manchester Clarendon StCatherine SourceESSJPIOJ/STATIN 2000 ENDOFYEAR POPULATION 646,100 85,300 76,500 109,200 150,600 71,400 156,200 66,400 128,900 146,100 161,600 215,980 384,500 % DISTRIBUTION 26.9 3.6 3.2 4.6 6.3 3.0 6.5 2.8 5.4 6.1 6.7 9.0 16 2007 ENDOFYEAR POPULATION 663,600 93,900 81,900 113,900 172,800 75,300 183,700 69,600 144,400 150,600 190,200 245,600 496,000 % DISTRIBUTION 24.7 3.5 3.1 4.2 6.4 2.8 6.9 2.6 5.4 5.6 7.1 9.2 18.5
Approximately52percentofthepopulationlivedinurbanareasin2001anincreaseofalmost12per centsince1970.Therateofurbanizationvariesbyparish.AsshowninTable1.3,thefastesturbanizing parishisSt.Catherine,whichhasdoubleditsurbansizesincethe1970s,increasingatarateof1.3per cent per year. St James, Manchester, St Elizabeth and Westmoreland also have increasing urban populations. Table1.9:UrbanRuralDistributionbyParish(19702001)
PARISH Jamaica Kingston St.Andrew St.Thomas Portland St.Mary St.Ann Trelawny St.James Hanover St.Elizabeth Manchester Clarendon St.Catherine 1970 1982 1991 2001 40.6 100 88.0 21.7 20.5 17.8 19.2 12.7 43.5 6.2 5.2 21.2 22.5 34.8 47.8 100 87.0 25.8 21.7 21.5 18.9 18.2 51.7 9.0 15.4 9.0 33.8 27.7 63.0 49.6 100 86.3 25.9 20.8 20.8 24.5 18.4 55.2 8.3 19.3 10.1 33.7 30.0 70.1 52.0 100 86.9 28.2 23.5 20.8 26.8 19.6 55.5 9.3 25.7 14.4 33.5 30.3 73.8
Westmoreland 14.7
Source:PopulationCensus2001STATIN
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1.2.3 EducationandLiteracy TheliteracyrateinJamaicain2007wasestimatedtobe86percent,whileaccordingtotheCIAWorld Fact Book, the world literacy rate currently (2007) sits at 82 per cent. The Jamaican society has traditionally put a premium on education. More than half of the social budget (both capital and recurrentexpenditure)isspentoneducation.Ofthecurrent6J$380billiondollarrecurrentandcapital budget, 12.4 per cent is dedicated to Education and Cultural Development (versus 8.2 per cent for securityservices,5.2percentforhealth,and3.4percentforeconomicservices).Theeducationsystem isfullymanagedandrunbytheMinistryofEducationandYouth. Enrolmentinprimaryschools(ages510)andsecondaryschools(ages1016)arecurrently7over80per cent.Enrolmentintertiarystudieshasrisenfrom20percentto34.5percentfrom20002006.Total outputofskilledandsemiskilledworkersincreasedfrom28,900individualsto49,900from20022007. 1.2.4 Housing Most Jamaicans(78percent)live inseparate/detachedhousing. Over70percentofhouseholdsare owneroccupiedorrentfreeandapproximately20percentarerented.ThetypicalhouseinJamaicais constructedofblockandsteelmaterial(approximately70percent).Wood(21percent)andconcrete nog(9percent)arealsoused.Investigationoftypeandqualityofamenitiesshowsthefollowing: Between 199606, approximately 68 per cent of households were supplied with piped water. Public standpipe comprises 6.7 per cent of water supply to households, trucked water approximately 3 per cent, spring or pond 3.9 per cent, rainwater (tank) approximately 15 per centandwellsapproximately3.5percent. Between 199606, 65 per cent of households had access to flush toilets and a further 33 per centusedpitlatrines.Thenumberofflushtoiletsisincreasingandpitlatrinesdecreasing. Electricity is the main source of lighting currently for 90 per cent of Jamaican households, followedbykerosenelighting(7.1percent).Only2percentofhouseholdshavenolighting. 91.6percentofhouseholdshaveexclusiveaccesstoakitchen The Housing Quality Index8 (HQI) for Jamaica has increased by almost 10 per cent between 199606 (Table1.4).Thismaybebecausethereisincreasinguseofmoredurablematerialsinconstruction,and markedincreasesinexclusiveuseofutilitiesandamenitiesinhouses.Inshort,homesinJamaicaare gettingmoremodern.Asaresultthehousingqualityindexhasincreasedbyalmost10percentin10 years(Table1.4).
2007 2007
TheHQIisaninternationallyacceptedmeasurewhichmeasuresthequalityofthehousingstock.ThecomponentsoftheHQIare:materialsof outer walls, exclusive use of water closets, dwellings with indoor pipes/taps, electricity for lighting, exclusive use of kitchen and number of habitablerooms.
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Table1.4:HousingQualityIndexforJamaica PARTICULARS 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2004 2006 WallsofBlockandSteel 55.6 59.2 59.6 58.3 62.7 63.3 58.4 64.3 65.1 ExclusiveUseofWater 44 45.2 47 47.7 48.8 50.7 50.5 54.9 57.2 IndoorTaps 44.3 46.2 42.3 44.3 46.3 46.6 45 49.3 48.5 ElectricityforLighting 76.9 78.2 80.4 80.8 86.9 86.1 87.1 89 90 ExclusiveUseofKitchens 82.8 81.1 89.3 89.6 91 92.4 90.5 90 93.6 %ofHouseholdsthatmeet 47.9 50.6 50.1 53.8 54.6 56 50.8 48.7 50 InternationalStandardforNo.of PersonsperHabitableRoom HQI 58.5 60 61 62.4 65 65.8 63.7 66 67.4 Source:JamaicaSurveyofLivingCondition 1.2.5 CultureandSport Jamaica has a high interest and record of achievement in some of the worlds major sports. It is a participatingmemberintheWestIndiesCricketBoardandcricketteam,itsnationalfootballteamhas playedintheWorldCup(1998),andthenationalbobsledteamhascompetedintheWinterOlympics. Rifle shooting, horseracing, netball and basketball are also popular. It is however in track and field whereJamaicahasaniconicstandingworldwide,withnumerousworldrecordholdersandOlympicand Worldchampionshipmedalsforbothmalesandfemalesinsprintraces.TheJamaicanculturealsohasa strongglobalpresenceasevidencedbyitsmusicalgenres(e.g.ska,rocksteady,reggaeetc),art,food, danceandliterature. 1.3 GeographyandClimate Atapproximately2000squaremiles,JamaicaisthethirdlargestislandintheCaribbean.Theislandis approximately230kmlong,orientedinaneastwestaxisandisapproximately80kmatitswidestpoint. Landareais10,990sq.Km,ofwhichabout160sq.kmiswaterandthecoastlineisapproximately1,022 km.Theterrainischaracterisedbyamountainousregionalongtheislandseastwestaxisandnarrow coastal plains. The highest elevation is Blue Mountain Peak which is 2,256 m above sea level. Most major towns and cities are located on the coast, with its chief towns and cities being the capital Kingston,MontegoBay(itssecondcity),Mandeville,SpanishTownOchoRios,andPtAntonio.Onlytwo majorparishcapitalsarelocatedinland. Thelocalclimateisdeemedtropical,withcoastalareashavinghotandhumidweatherandinlandareas having a more temperate climate. Jamaica lies in the hurricane belt of the Atlantic Ocean which historicallyhasbeenevidencedbystrongtropicalhurricanes.Themorerecentones,HurricanesDean (2007)andIvan(2004),havecreatedhugeinfrastructuraldamagesandsomelossoflife. Jamaicas freshwater resources come from surface sources (rivers and streams) and underground sources (wells and springs) and rainwater harvesting. Groundwater supplies most water demands (approximately 80% of production) and represents 84% of the islands exploitable water. The islands water sources are associated with major rock formations and their interrelationships. The three dominant hydrostratigraphic units are basement aquiclude, limestone aquifer, and alluvium aquifer/aquiclude.Theislandisdividedintotenhydrologicalbasins.
Raw water supplies are directly affected by changes in climatic conditions. Changes in the amount of rainfallaswellasitsfrequencyandintensitydeterminetheamountofwaterthatwillbeavailablefor exploitation. The changes to the amount of total rainfall that Jamaica may receive under the climate changescenariosareuncertain;however,evenminorchangesinJamaicasrainfallpatternscouldhave significantimpactsonitswaterresources. 1.4 Economy Jamaicaoperatesamixedeconomic system;wherethere areprominentstateenterprisesalongsidea viableprivatesector.ThemajorsectorsoftheJamaicaneconomyarebauxite,tourism,agriculture,and manufacturing,withtourismandminingbeingtheleadingforeignexchangeearners.Theeconomyhas becomemoreservicedrivenovertimepresently(2007)34.2percentoftheeconomycanbeseenas thegoodssectorand72.9percentastheservicesector,whilein1992,42.6percentoftheeconomy wasgoodsand39.7percentin2000. 1.4.1 Keyeconomicsectors Tourismprovidesapproximately1.9billionUSdollarsannuallytotheforeignexchangeearningsofthe nation. It is only surpassed by private remittance inflows as a foreign exchange earner. The local tourismproductisdominatedmainlybyresort(sun,seaandfun)tourismandislocationspecific.The northcoastareas(i.e.,MontegoBay,OchoRios,andNegril)arethedominantareasforbothstopover andcruiseshipvisitors. The agriculture sector has been consistently declining over the past two decades. Its contribution to GDP in 2005 was 5.3 per cent, compared to 6.5 per cent in 2000. The agricultural production index (base year 1996) also shows that the production and value of export crops and domestic crop productionhavebeenfalling,althoughthelivestockandfishingsubsectorhaveshowngrowthbetween 199807. 1.4.2 GDPGrowthRateandPerCapitaGDP GDP represents the per unit total value of goods and services produced per year by the Jamaican economy.Itincludesallfinalgoodsandservicesproducedbyeconomicresourceslocatedinthenation, regardlessofownershipandarenotresoldinanyform.Theeconomyhadanannualsize(intermsof GDP) of approximately J$250 billion in 2007 (Figure 1.3). From 200007, the country averaged real growthof1.5percentperannum,rangingfrom0.8percentin2000to2.5percentin2006(Figure1.3).
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Figure1.3:AnnualGDPandGDPGrowthRate,200007
NominalpercapitaGDPhasaveragedapproximatelyUS$3300.00from20002007.Constantpercapita GDPhasbeenlower,averagingUS$1300.00overthesameperiod(Figure1.4). Figure1.4:ConstantandNominalperCapitaIncome,Jamaica(200007)
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1.4.3 InternationalTrade Being a typical small island developing state (SID), Jamaica can be classified as an open economy. Exportswereonaverage18percentofGDPandimportsare50percent.Thetradebalancecurrently9 standsatUS$3.5billionandthecurrentaccountbalanceatUS$1.5billion. ThemajortradingpartneristheUSA,whichaccountedfor33percentofthenationsexports,followed by Canada (14 per cent) and the United Kingdom (13.4 per cent). This has implications for demand managementoftheeconomy,sinceanimportdriveneconomy(accompaniedbycommensuratelylow exports)isamajorsignofvulnerability(politically,sociallyandeconomically). Sincetheadoptionofthefreelyfloatingexchangeratesystem,theJamaicandollarhasfallenfromJ$5: US$1toJ$71:US$1in2007.Theopennessoftheeconomyhasalsoexposedthecountrytoimported inflation which currently, with the recent surge in the price of oil, has affected local price increases. Anothercriticalfactoristhatimportsaremajorleakages(especiallyimportsofconsumergoodswhichis a major aspect of local imports) and that has also been a factor which has affected the slow rates of growththeeconomyhasundergoneoverthepastdecade Politicallythisalsohasimplicationswherewithglobalizationandinternationalizationbeingthethrustto whichallstateshavetorespond.ItcreatesasituationwhereSIDSsuchasJamaicaarevulnerableto:[a] free trade agreements by larger economies, e.g. banana and bauxite trade deals, [b] environmental lobbying where, because of their lack of economic power, they are not able to properly table the environmental issues which affect them the most, and, finally [c] trade imbalances that create indebtednessandforcecountriessuchasJamaicawithfewresourcestoborrowevenfurther. 1.4.4 NationalDebtandItsConsequences Jamaicahasacurrently10existingandrisingdebtburdenofJ$990.8billion.Examinationoftheannual recurrentandcapitalexpenditurebudgetshowsthatdebtmanagementisanannualJ$205billion.This isalmost54centsofeverydollarbudgetedannually.Debtchallenges(and,insomecases,crises)have existedinJamaicaforalmost40years(albeit,thecountryhasonlybeenpoliticallyindependentfor48 years).Debtanditsconsequencesarenotjustapartofthemoderncultureofthecountrybutapartof an entire generation growing up knowing no other socioeconomic scenario. This is a poignant fact whengiventhechargestobeundertakenwiththeonsetofglobalwarmingandclimatechange,which will require an incredible amount of resources to address, and will be especially critical in a country where over onehalf of resources earned annually are transferred out to service past economic indiscretions. 1.4.5 Monetaryaid The national economy is a consistent beneficiary of extensive multilateral financial and technical assistancefromorganizationssuchastheWorldBank,theInternationalMonetaryFund,andtheInter American Development Bank. Strong assistance from these organizations since the 1980s has been
9
2008 2008
10
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instrumentalfortheimplementationofstructuralreforms,pavingthewayforaliberalforeignexchange system, cutting of tariffs and trade controls, stabilizing the currency and controlling inflation. The annualamountsofofficialdevelopmentassistancefor200107areshownbelowinTable1.5. Table1.5:SourcesofNewOfficialDevelopmentAssistance,200107(US$Million)
AGENCY Bilateral Co operation Multilater al Financial Institution s Multilater al Technical Cooperati on TOTAL 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Loan Gran Loan Gran Loa Gran Loa Gran Loan Gran Loan Gran Loa Gran t t n t n t t t n t 12.9 29.2 9.0 10.7 36.1 105. 84.0 532. 19.7 12. 9.6 0 9 9 238. 8 32.8 221. 8 9.5 28. 7 71.7 92. 4 38.6 54.1 8.9 30.5 8.2 77. 3 49.0
4.4
5.3
6.6
29.0
5.4
3.3
8.6
251. 66.4 221. 7 8 Source:PIOJandIDPs2007
23.8
28. 7
89.0
92. 4
103. 7
159. 1
98.3
563. 4
31.2
90. 2
67.2
1.4.6 Unemployment Thenationalunemploymentrateaveraged11.4percent(20002008)andhasbeenshowingamarginal downward trend since 2000 (Figure 1.5). The labour force has a size of approximately 1.2 million individuals; of this, more than 55 per cent are males. The overall labour force participation rate has undergone marginal declines since 2000 and stood at 64.8 per cent in 2007. There are significant differencesbetweenmaleandfemaleunemploymentinJamaica.Malelevelshaverangedfrom10per cent(2002)to6.2percentin2007,whilefemaleunemploymentaverages17percentandhasranged from20percentto14.5percent. Figure1.5:LabourForce,LabourForceParticipationandEmployment(200007)(PIOJ)
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1.4.7 PovertyandIncomeDistribution TheincidenceofpovertyinJamaicahasundergonesignificantdecline,fallingfrom18.7percentin2000 to14.3percentin2006.Thereisaclearrelationshipbetweenrurallocationsandhigherincidencesof poverty.Over60percentofthepoorareinruralareas,comparedwithanaverage1420percentin the Kingston Metropolitan Area. There are also marked differences between the mean per capita consumptionofruralareatownsandtheKingstonMetropolitanArea. 1.5 Vision2030Jamaica:NationalDevelopmentPlan Jamaicas overarching strategic direction that will guide the countrys development to 2030 is articulated in Vision 2030 Jamaica: National Development Plan, and is based on the comprehensive visionJamaica,theplaceofchoicetolive,work,raisefamilies,anddobusiness.Theplanisexpected to result in Jamaica achieving developed country status by 2030. There are four national goals, 15 nationaloutcomes,andover50nationalstrategiestoachievethem(Figure1.6). Thenationalstrategies willbeimplementedthrough sectorlevelprogrammes,plans andactivitiesfor eachofthesocial,governance,economicandenvironmentalsectorsofthecountry.Vision2030Jamaica will be supported by seven threeyear, mediumterm socioeconomic policy framework (MTF) documents.TheMTF20092012isthefirstsuchdocument,whichfocusesonsixpriorityoutcomes: SecurityandSafety AStableMacroeconomy StrongEconomicInfrastructure EnergySecurityandEfficiency WorldClassEducationandTraining EffectiveGovernance
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Figure1.6:TheNationalGoalsandOutcomesofVision2030Jamaica:NationalDevelopment Plan
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CHAPTER 2: THE NATIONAL GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY 2.1 Introduction 2.1.1 Background As a signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and in accordancewithArticle4.1(a)oftheUNFCCC,allPartiestotheConventionarerequestedtoupdateand report periodically on their inventory of anthropogenic emissions and removals of greenhouse gases (GHGs)notcontrolledbytheMontrealProtocol. Jamaica, which is a nonAnnex 1 Party to the Convention, included a GHG inventory with its Initial NationalCommunicationthatwassubmittedonNovember21,2000.Theinventorywaspreparedfor thereferenceyear1994incompliancewithArticles4and12oftheUNFCCCandinaccordancewiththe IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)Revised1996Guidelines. ForitsSecondNationalCommunication,Jamaicadecidedtousethe2006IPCCGuidelinesinpreparation of GHG inventories for the years 200005. The use of the 2006 Revised IPCC Guidelines fulfils the objectiveoftheConferenceofthePartiesfortheuseofcomparablemethodologies.Theinventorywas preparedusingthefollowingdocuments: 2006IPCCGuidelinesforNationalGreenhouseGasInventories GoodPracticeGuidanceforLandUse,LandUseChangeandForestry(IPCC,2003) GoodPracticeGuidanceandUncertaintyManagementinNationalGreenhouseGasInventories (IPCC,2000) 2.1.2 Scope ThegasesincludedintheGHGinventoryarethedirectGHGs,namely:carbondioxide(CO2),methane (CH4),nitrousoxide(N2O),Hydrofluorocarbons(HFCs),perfluorocarbons(PFCs)andsulphurhexafluoride (SF6),andtheindirectGHGs(whichcontributetoTroposphericozoneformation):nonmethanevolatile organiccompounds(NMVOCs),carbonmonoxide(CO),nitrogenoxides(NOx),andsulphurdioxide(SO2). Inventorieswerecompiledfortheyears2000to2005forthefollowingfoursectors: Energy; IndustrialProcessesandProductUse; Agriculture,ForestryandOtherLandUse(AFOLU);and Waste. Within each sector, the methodologies used and data sources (activity and emission factor data) are indicatedtogetherwiththepresentationanddiscussionofemissionestimates.Gaps,dataconstraints, methodological problems and uncertainties in compiling the GHG emission estimates are identified within each sector. The lack of a complete archive of data for the 1994 inventory precluded recalculation of the 1994 inventory using the 2006 IPCC Guidelines or the investigation of apparent anomaliesinestimatesoftheCO2sinkintheforestrysectorandCH4emissionsfromsoilsinthe1994 estimates.
2.2 OverviewandSummaryofJamaicasGreenhouseGasInventory 2.2.1 Comparisonbetweenthereferenceyearsof1994and2000 Overallnationalandsectoralemissionsfor2000aregiveninTable2.1andareillustratedinFigure2.1. Figure2.1:SummaryofNationalGHGEmissionsinJamaica(2000)
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Table2.1:SummaryofNationalGHGEmissionsinJamaica(2000)
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NetCO2emissionsincreasedfrom8,418Gigagrams(Gg)in1994to9,532Ggin2000.Theenergysector accountedfornearly86percentofthe2000CO2emissions,downfrom97percentin1994.Thetotal estimated CO2 removals (sinks) were 1,108 Gg in 2000, compared to 167 Gg in 1994. The Agriculture, ForestryandOtherLandUsesectorswereresponsibleforthesink(Figure2.2).Howeversufficientdata (emission factors) were not available to determine the reasons for the large change an apparent discrepancy.TotalCO2emissionsin1994were8,585Ggwhilein2000theyhadincreasedto10,640Gg. Figure2.2:CarbonDioxideEmissions,bysector,inJamaica(2000)
CH4emissionsin1994wereestimatedat58.5Ggand34.7Ggin2000.TheestimatesforCH4 emissions in 2000 from enteric fermentation (36 Gg) and manure management (7 Gg) were considerably higher than those in 1994 (8.17 Gg and 0.646 Gg respectively). The waste sector accounted for 54% of the CH4emissions in 2000, followed by Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses (26%) and Energy (20%) (Figure2.3). Figure2.3:MethaneEmissions,bysector,inJamaica(2000)
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NO2 emissions were estimated at 344 Gg in 1994 and 11.7 Gg in 2000. The reason for the large discrepancybetweenthe1994and2000estimatescouldnotbedeterminedsincerawdatausedinthe 1994 calculations were not available. Managed soils (fertilizer applications) accounted for 80% of the NO2emissions(Figure2.4). Figure2.4:NitrousOxideEmissions,bysector,inJamaica(2000)
EstimatesforHydrofluorocarbonsemissionswerenotmadein1994butwere5.16GginCO2equivalents in2000. NOxemissionswereestimatedat30.9Ggin1994and35.9Ggin2000(Figure2.5).CO,NMVOCs,and SO2emissionsin1994were173Gg,29.1Ggand98.9Ggrespectively;theseroseto205Gg,27.6Ggand 173 Gg respectively in 2000. The transport sector accounted for the majority of CO and NMVOC emissions. The energy industries (electricity generation) and manufacturing categories accounted for themajorityofSO2emissions.
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Figure2.5:EmissionsofIndirectGreenhouseGasesinJamaica(2000)
SelectedfeaturesofthesubsectoralcontributionstotheGHGinventoryin2000areasfollows: Manufacturing and construction accounted for 35.7 per cent of net CO2 fuel combustion emissions, followed by energy industries (electricity generation and petroleum refining), 33.1 percent,andtransport,24.2percent(Figure2.6).Itshouldbenotedthatmanufacturingand constructionincludessome(butnotall)componentsofthebauxitealuminaindustry. Figure2.6:NetCarbonDioxideEmissionsfromFuelCombustioninJamaica(2000)
In the transport sector (Figure 2.7), light duty gasoline vehicles accounted for 48% of the CO2 emissions,withsimilarcontributions(15to18%)fromlightdutygasolinetrucks(LDGT),heavy dutydieselvehicles(HDDV)andheavydutygasoline(HDGV)vehicles.
Figure2.7:CarbonDioxideEmissionsfromOnRoadTransportationinJamaica(2000)
CH4emissionsfromthewastesectorweremainlyfromsolidwastedisposal(71%)followedby wastewatertreatment(26%)(SeeFigure2.8).
Figure2.8:MethaneEmissionsfromtheWasteSectorinJamaica(2000)
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2.2.2 Trendsbetween2000and2005 Themethodologiesusedincompilingthecurrentinventory(accordingtotheIPCC2000Guidelines)are differentfromthoseusedtocompilethe1994inventory.Archivedactivitydataforthe1994inventory were incomplete (especially for the agriculture and forestry sectors) and hence it was not feasible to reconstructthe1994inventoryusingthe2006methodologies.Becauseofthis,trendsinemissionsare discussedonlyfor200005. Overall,annualemissionsforCO2,CH4andN2Oallshowedanincreasingtrendfrom200005,asshown inFigure2.9,withonlyaminordropin2004. CO2 emissions increased consistently from 9,531 Gg in 2000 to 13,956 Gg in 2005. The large (46%) increase in CO2emissions in the energy sector was due to increases in fuel consumption in the manufacturing (bauxite and alumina industry) and transportation categories (Figure 2.10). There was littlechangeinthe magnitudesofthesourcesandsinksforCO2in theAgriculture,ForestryandOther LandUsesectorsbetween2000and2005. In the Industrial Processes and Products Use Sector, the CO2emissions from the cement industry increasedover200005butthoseduetolimemanufacturedeclined(Figure2.11).Importationoflime wasrequiredtomeetthealuminaindustrydemands. CO2emissionsinthewastesectorincreasedover200005.Thecontributionfrommanageddisposalsites decreasedwhilethatfromunmanagedsitesincreased(seeFigure2.12).Therewasasimilarpatternfor CH4emissionsinthewastesector.Overall,CH4emissionsrosefrom31.1Ggin2000to41.9Ggin2005.
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2.2.3 Uncertainties UncertaintiesintheoverallGHGinventoryforemissionfactorsandactivitydatawerecalculatedusing the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. The Guidelines recommend evaluation of the uncertainties in the annual estimates as well as in trends. This was done for the 2005 inventory using 2000 as the base year; estimatesoftheuncertaintyaloneweremadefor2000. Theoveralluncertaintiesinthe2000and2005inventorieswereabout10%,whiletheuncertaintyinthe trendbetween2000and2005was16%.CO2accountedforbetween70and77%oftheemissionsona CO2equivalent basis. Most of the CO2emissions are from fuel combustion which, apart from some transportationcategories,ingeneralhaslowuncertainties. Conclusion Improvements to the GHG inventory will greatly facilitate the core business of data suppliers. This is especiallytrueoftheenergysector/fuelusedatawherereliableenergyenduseinformationissocritical inidentifyingopportunitiesforimprovingenergyefficiencyandreducingfueluse.
2.3EnergySectorGreenhouseGasEmissions Theenergysectorconsistsofthefollowingtypesofactivities(sourcecategories): Explorationandexploitationofprimaryenergysources, Transmissionanddistributionoffuels, Conversionofprimaryenergysourcesintomoreuseableenergyformsinrefineriesandpower plants,and Useoffuelsinstationaryandmobileapplications. Emissions arise from these activities by combustion and as fugitive emissions, or escape without combustion. ThereisnoprimaryenergyindustryinJamaica,sothissourcecategorywasnotconsideredintheenergy sector.ThesourcecategoriescoveredintheEnergySectorandthosethatarepresentinJamaicaand therefore relevant for the inventory are summarized in Table 2.2. The sources that are present in JamaicaareindicatedbyaYor*.Intheformercase(Y),theinventoryincludesaspecificworksheet toidentifyemissionswhileinthelattercase(*)theemissionestimatesareincludedinanothersector (becausedatawerenotavailabletodisaggregatetheemissions).
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Table2.2:EnergySectorSourceCategoriesPresentinJamaica Category CategoryName PresentInJamaica# Code 1A1 FuelCombustionActivitiesEnergyIndustries 1A1a MainActivityElectricityandHeatProduction Y 1A1b PetroleumRefining Y 1A1c ManufactureofSolidFuelsandOtherEnergyIndustries N 1A2 FuelCombustionActivitiesManufacturingIndustriesandConstruction 1A2a IronandSteel(ISICGroup271andClass2731) N 1A2b NonFerrousMetals(ISICGroup272andClass2732) N 1A2c Chemicals(ISICDivision24) Y 1A2d Pulp,PaperandPrint(ISICDivisions21and22) N 1A2e Food Processing, Beverages and Tobacco (ISIC Divisions 15 and * 16) 1A2f NonMetallicMinerals(ISICDivision26) Y 1A2g TransportEquipment(ISICDivisions34and35) N 1A2h Machinery(ISICDivisions28to32) N 1A2i Mining(excludingfuels)andQuarrying(ISICDivisions13to14) Y 1A2j WoodandWoodProducts(ISICDivision20) * 1A2k Construction(ISICDivision45) * 1A2l TextileandLeather(ISICDivisions17,18and19) * 1A2m NonspecifiedIndustry Y 1A3 MobileCombustion(Transport) 1A3a CivilAviation Y 1A3b Roadtransport Y 1A3c Railways Y 1A3d WaterborneNavigation * 1A3e OtherNavigation * 1A4 FuelCombustionActivitiesOtherSectors 1A4a Commercial/Institutional Y 1A4b Residential Y 1A4c Agriculture / Forestry / Fishing / Fish Farms (Stationary * combustion) 1A5 FuelCombustionActivitiesNonSpecified N 1A5a NonSpecifiedStationary * 1B FugitiveEmissionsfromFuels 1B1 FugitiveemissionsfromfuelsSolidFuels N 1B2 OilandNaturalGas 1B2a FugitiveEmissionsfromFuelsOilandNaturalGasOil Y 1B2b FugitiveEmissionsfromFuelsOilandNaturalGasNaturalgas N 1B3 OtheremissionsfromEnergyProduction 1C CarbonDioxideTransportandStorage N 1D Miscellaneous N
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2.3.1 FuelCombustionActivitiesEnergyIndustries(1A1) ForJamaica,thissubsectorcompriseselectricityandheatproduction(1A1a),petroleumrefining(1A1b) and the manufacture of charcoal (1A1c). Emission estimates from these subsectors are described below. For all calculations in the energy sector, the default values for the net calorific values, carbon contentandCO2emissionfactorsfoundinthe2006IPCCGuidelineswereused.Emissionsdataforthe energyIndustriessubsectoraresummarizedinTable2.3. Table2.3:SummaryofEmissionsfromtheEnergyIndustriesSector(FuelCombustion)(Gg)(2000) CO2 CH4 N2O NOx CO NMVOCs SO2 1ENERGY 10,066 6.91 2.17 35.20 201 20.2 173 1AFuelCombustionActivities 10,062 7 2 35 201 19 173 1A1EnergyIndustries 3,329 0.26 0.05 11.64 1.21 0.08 106.06 1A1aMainActivityElectricityandHeat Production 3,280 0 0 6 1 0 53 1A1aiElectricityGeneration 3,280 0.13 0.03 5.80 0.60 0.04 52.60 ElectricityandHeatProduction(1A1a) ElectricityforpublicconsumptionissuppliedbytheJamaicaPublicServiceCompany(JPS)whichisalso the main generator of electricity in Jamaica. JPS purchases electrical power from several other independentsources.TheseincludeJamaicaEnergyPartners(JEP)andJamaicaPrivatePowerCompany (JPPC),whicharededicatedprivatepowerproducers,andalsootherfacilitiesthatproduceelectricityfor theirownuseandselltheexcesstoJPS.TheGHGemissionsfromtheproductionofheatandownuse byindustryareincludedintheindustrialprocessessectoremissions. Between2000and2005,purchasedpowerwasbetween25.6%and30.5%ofthetotaloutput(3.30to 3.87 GWh). The annual fuel use for electricity generation between 2000 and 2005 ranged from 5,159,687to4,811,726millionbarrelsofheavyfueloilandfrom725,158to1,794,870millionbarrelsof diesel oil. Activity data (fuel consumption) were obtained from the Ministry of Energy, Mining and Telecommunication(MEMT),andprivatepowerproducers. Estimates of fuel use and emissions from cogeneration were based on data provided by JBI (fuel consumption and electricity sales) and efficiency data provided by the company. Emissions from the electricity generation source category between 2000 and 2005 ranged from 2,977 Gg to 3,365 Gg for CO2(Figure2.10),0.116Ggto0.132Ggformethane,and0.023Ggto0.026GgforN2O. PetroleumRefining(1A1b) Fuelsusedbyrefineriesinrefiningcrudeoilareincludedintheenergysector.Therefineryusedheavy fueloil,refinerygas,kerosene,automotivedieseloilandpropaneinitsoperations.Theamountsoffuels used in refinery operations were obtained from Petrojam and MEMT. In 2000, the energy use by Petrojamamountedto271,373TJ(42,514fueloilequivalentbarrels(FOEB)iandresultedinemissions of15.1GgofCO2andnegligibleamountsofCH4(6x104Gg)andN2O(1.2x104Gg).
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2.3.2 FuelCombustionActivitiesManufacturingIndustriesAndConstruction(1A2) ThemainmanufacturingindustriespresentinJamaicaareChemicals(Alumina),NonMetallicMinerals, Mining(excludingfuels)andQuarrying.Activitydata(fuelconsumption)forfoodandbeverage,textiles arenotcompiledroutinely,andhenceemissionsfromthesesubsectorsareincludedinNonSpecified Industry. Emissions from the industry sector are based on subcategories that correspond to the InternationalStandardIndustrialClassificationofallEconomicActivities(ISIC)seeTable2.4.Sincefuel usedatawereavailableforthesugarindustry,dataarereportedseparatelyforsugar,cementandlime manufacture. Table2.4:GHGEmissionsfromFuelCombustionsinManufacturingIndustries(2000) CO2 CH4 N2O NOX CO NMVOCs SO2 1A2ManufacturingIndustriesand 3.597 0.253 0.043 7.35 8.24 0.31 60.9 Construction 1A2cChemicals 2.956 0.115 0.023 5.17 0.54 0.08 50.90 1A2eFoodProcessing,Beveragesand 60 0.116 0.016 1.28 7.59 0.19 3.50 Tobacco(Sugar) 1A2fNonMetallicMinerals 381 0.014 0.003 0.53 0.07 0.02 4.70 1A2iMining(excludingfuels)&Quarrying 112 0.004 0.001 0.21 0.02 0.00 1.00 1A2mNonspecifiedIndustry 87 0.003 0.001 0.16 0.02 0.00 0.90 ChemicalsAluminaProduction(1A2c) Alumina production (ISIC 2420) is the dominant fuel use sector in Jamaica. The reporting of fuels use data for the alumina industry is made along with that for bauxite mining and, in some cases, lime production.Thereporteddataalloweddisaggregationoffueluseinaluminaproductioni.e.,forboilers (steam used in alumina production and ownuse electricity generation) and kiln drying of alumina. In somecases,thereporteddataincludedheavyfueloilusedforlimemanufacturewhichwasisolatedand reportedunderlimemanufacture. Gasoline use in the bauxite and alumina industry was allocated to road transportation. The reported dieselfueluseinthealuminaindustryincludedusesforaluminaprocessing,railandroadtransportation andminingandalloftheseuseswerenotalwaysreportedseparately.Inthosecasesthedieselfueluse forminingandrailtransportationwasallocatedbasedonbauxiteproductionandotherinformation(see sections on mining and rail transportation) in order to estimate the diesel fuel used for alumina processing. It was assumed that there was negligible diesel fuel use for road transportation in the reported data from alumina companies (i.e., all diesel fuel was used for mining, rail transportation and alumina processing).FuelusedataforthebauxiteandaluminasectorswereobtainedfromtheJamaicaBauxite Institute(JBI)andMEMTandproductiondatawerealsoobtainedfromJBI.Therewerediscrepanciesin thedieselfuelusefromthesesourceswhichwerelikelyduetothemannerinwhichfuelusedformining wasaccountedfor.Insomeyears,somecompaniesusedacontractorforminingandfuelsalestothe contractorwerenotalwaysreportedinthealuminaindustryreports.
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SugarIndustry(1A2e) The energy requirements for the manufacture of sugar from sugar cane are derived from renewable sources(bagasse,wood)aswellasfromheavyfueloil.Bestpracticesinthesugarindustryentailtheuse ofbagasseforallfactory(steamandelectricity)needswithexcessenergyusedtosupplyelectricityto the public grid. The isolation of heavy fuel oil (to supplement bagasse) in many of Jamaicas sugar factories allows the identification not only of the GHG emissions associated with heavy fuel oil combustioninthesugarindustry,butalsothepotentialforeliminatingheavyfueloiluseifbagassewere in sufficient supply. The CO2 emissions from the renewable fuels (bagasse and wood) are noted as memoitemsandarenotincludedinthenationalCO2emissions. NonMetallicMinerals(1A2f) Thissubsectorcomprisescementandlimemanufacture.ThemajorusesoflimeinJamaicaareinthe aluminaindustryandinsugarrefining.FuelusedatawereobtainedfromMEMTandJBIandCaribbean CementCompanyLimited(CCCL)andoneoftwolimemanufacturingplants(ChippenhamParkLtd.). MiningandQuarrying(1A2i) Miningofbauxiteisthemajoractivityinthissector.Thereisalsoquarryingforlimestone(forcement andlimemanufacture),shaleandgypsum(forcementmanufacture),andmarlandsand(forroadand buildingconstruction).Fuelusedataarecompiledandreportedforthebauxiteandaluminaindustries butdata arenot available to allowestimates of fuelusefortheremainingactivities.Most ofthefuel usedinquarryingisassociatedwiththetransportationofmaterialsandiscapturedinthetransportation subsector.Theestimatesforminingreportedhereareonlyforthebauxitemining. Threeofthefourbauxiteandaluminaindustrycompaniesproducebothbauxiteandaluminaandthe fourthcompanyminesbauxiteexclusively.Inthelattercase,bauxiteisdriedusingheavyfueloiltofire bauxite drying kilns. All heavy fuel oil and diesel fuel use reported for the bauxiteexclusive company was attributed to mining. It was assumed that none of this diesel fuel use was attributable to road transportation.Forcompanieswithbauxitemineandaluminarefineries,dieselfuelisusedforoffroad miningequipmentandfortransportingbauxitetorailheadsoraluminatoportsaswellasforrefinery relatedactivities. Dieselfueluseformininginthesecaseswasestimatedfromthetotalfueluselessthatforallboilers, railtransportationandportrelatedactivities.Forsomeyearsandcompanies,miningwassubcontracted toathirdpartycompanywhosefuelusemaynothavebeencapturedwithinthebauxite/aluminasector byMEMTorJBI. NonspecifiedIndustry(1A2m) Activities included in this sector consist of all manufacturing other than those described above. It includes food and beverage industries, leather, chemical (sulphuric acid and other chemicals) and construction. Fuel use data are compiled by MEMT for this subsector. Emissions from the Fuel CombustionsinManufacturingIndustriessubsectorfortheyear2000areindicatedinTable2.4.
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2.3.3 MobileCombustion(Transportation)Sector(1A3) The transportation sector includes emissions from onroad and offroad mobile sources, aviation, railwaysandwaterbornenavigation.FuelcombustioninmobilesourcesproducesthedirectGHGs(CO2, CH4,N2O)aswellastheindirectGHGs(CO,NMVOCs,SO2,PMandNOx).Fuelusefortheaviationand marine sources do not include fuel delivered to international bunkers. Emissions from the transport sectoraregiveninTable2.5.Thetransportsectorandespeciallytheonroadvehiclefleetisamajor sourcecategoryandhenceconsiderableeffortwasmadetoobtainthebestestimates. Table2.5:GHGEmissions(Gg)fromtheTransportSector(2000)
CivilAviation(1A3a) AviationemissionsfromtheuseofjetfuelandaviationgasolineincludeCO2,smalleramountsofNOx, CO,SO2,NMVOCandparticulatematter,andmuchsmalleramountsofCH4andN2O. Aircraftemissionsaregenerally disaggregatedintoemissions during landingsand takeoffs(LTOs)and cruising mode. Aviation emissions relevant to Jamaica are those for International Aviation (category 1A3ai)andDomesticAviation(1A3aii).
Aviation jet fuel use data for Jamaican military were available to estimate emissions category 1A5b (Mobileaviationnotspecifiedelsewhere).However,sinceLTOdataforJamaicanmilitaryflights(except for movements for Up Park Camp airstrip) were included in the aircraft movement data for other airports,aseparateestimateforcategory1A5bwasnotmade. AggregatedatafortheairportswereavailablefromtheCivilAviationAuthority(CAA)websiteandthese datawerecomparedwiththeindividualLTOdataprovidedbyAirportsAuthorityofJamaica(AAJ).The discrepancies were assumed to be equal to the number of touchandgo flights since these were not captured in the AAJ database for 200305. The AAJ data at the Norman Manley International Airport (NMIA) for 2001 and 2002 included the number of touchandgo LTOs. The available data for the internationalairportsaresummarizedinTable2.6. Table2.6:AvailableLTOdataatJamaicasInternationalAirports(200005)
Individual aircraft movement data (i.e., arrivals and departures separately) for domestic and internationalflightswereavailableonlyfor2003to2005(shadedareainTable2.7). Table2.7:AvailableLTOdataatJamaicasDomesticAerodromes(200005)
Only aggregate movement data were available otherwise. Although some individual LTO data were availableforSangsterInternationalAirport(SIA)andNMIAfor2000to2002,thedataprovideddidnot includepointsoforiginordestinationinordertodeterminewhichflightsweredomestic. Theestimatesofemissionsfromdomesticflightsfor2000to2002wereassumedtobethesameasin 2003.Salesofaviationfuels(jetfuelandaviationgasoline)tolocallyregisteredairlineswerereportedas domesticconsumption(seeTable2.8).
Table2.8:AviationFuelSales(200005)
Salestointernationalairlinesarerecordedasinternationalbunkers.Thisappearstohavebeenthecase in200002,butmaynothavebeensofor200305forjetfuel.Themajorityofthedomesticjetfuelsales wouldhavebeentoAirJamaica,whichusesthebulkofsuchfueloninternationalflights,buttheairline alsooperatesflightsbetweenthetwointernationalairports.Consequentlythefuelestimates(LTOand cruising)betweenthetwoJamaicaninternationalairportsweresubtractedfromthetotaljetfuelsales and the remainder was attributed to international bunkers. Estimates (preliminary) for aviation emissions(withoutanycorrectionforfueluseduringdomesticAirJamaicaflights)in2000aregivenin Table2.9. Table2.9:SummaryofAviationEmissions(2000)
LTOemissionsestimatesfordomesticflights(Table2.10)weremadebasedonemissionfactorsobtained fromtheUnitedStatesFederalAviationAdministration(FAA)Emissions&DispersionModelingSystem (EDMS) model (Version 5.1). LTO data were reviewed to determine aircraft types in the many cases wherecodesdidnotmatchInternationalCivilAviationOrganization(ICAO)Codes.LTOemissionsofCO, THC,NMHC,VOC,NOx,SOx,PM10andPM2.5wereestimatedforalldomesticflights.Themodeloutput alsoincludesfuelusedandthiswasusedtoestimatethecarbondioxideemissions.Themodeldefault taxiandqueuetimeswerechangedto5minutesinandoutfordomesticaerodromesand5minutesin and7minutesoutfortheinternationalairports. Table2.10:SummaryofDomesticLTOEmissionsandFuelUse(200304)
Domesticcruiseemissionestimatesrequireinformationontheroutesflownbetweenthelocalairports, thenumberofsuchflights,thetypesofaircraftusedandtheamountoffuelused.Thecruiseemissions
and fuel use for domestic flights were obtained from the EMEP/CORINAIR 2007 Guidebook, using SNAP97 Codes 080503 and 080504. The database includes fuel use and cruise emissions for cruise distancesstartingfrom125nauticalmiles(nm). Thedistancesbetweeneachofthelocalaerodromesorairportsislessthan125nauticalmiles.Hence estimatesoffueluseandemissionsweremadebylinearextrapolationfromthefourlowestdistances provided in the EMEP/CORINAIR database. Cruise data (fuel consumption and emission rates) were availableforsomebutnotalloftheaircraftusedindomesticflights(e.g.,Airbus300series,Dash8and some Cessnas). For the remaining aircraft, fuel consumption data were matched to the data in the CORINAIRdatabase;otherwisetheenginefuel consumptionfortheapproachcyclesmultipliedbythe number of engines (available from the ICAO engine database) and the average travel times between airportswasusedasasurrogateforcruiseemissions.EstimatesofcruiseemissionsaregiveninTable 2.11. Table2.11:SummaryofDomesticCruiseEmissionsandFuelUse(200305)
WhenaircraftdatawereavailableintheEMEP/CORINAIRdatabase,estimatesforCO2,NOx,COandTHC (assumedtobethesameasNMVVOC)weremade.Otherwisefuelbasedemissionfactorswereused. RoadTransportation(1A3b) The Road Transportation subsector includes all types of lightduty vehicles such as automobiles and lighttrucks,andheavydutyvehiclessuchastrucks,tractortrailersandbusesandonroadmotorcycles. Thesevehiclesoperateonliquid(gasolineanddiesel)andgaseous(propaneorliquefiedpetroleumgas) fuels.TheuseofgaseousfuelsinJamaicaisnegligibleandwasomittedfromfurtherconsideration.The GHGsemittedfromfuelcombustionin roadtransportationareCO2,COandNOx as wellas emissions associatedwithcatalyticconverteruse(NOx,N2O,andCH4)orvehicleoperation(NMVOCs,PM). Although road transport is a key sector for Jamaica, it was not feasible to collect historical country specificfuel(gasolineanddiesel)carboncontentdata(asrequiredforTier2),hencetheTier1method wasusedtoestimateCO2emissionsbasedonfuelconsumption.Defaultemissionfactorswereused. Fuel use data are collected by MEMT and while data for gasoline will reliably reflect use in vehicles (since other uses of gasoline are relatively small), the same cannot be said for diesel. Gasoline consumptiondataincludeusesformarine,standbygeneratorsandoffroadusesandtheseamountsare likelytobeasmallpercentageofthetotalconsumption.Theconsumptiondatafordieselattributedto transportationlikelyincludesusesformarineandoffroadusesbutthesewouldbealargerpercentage ofdieselsales.ThesefactorswouldlowertheonroadconsumptiondataderivedfromMEMTreports.In contrast, diesel consumption for some sectors (bauxite, government and others) will include onroad fleetuses.
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CH4andN2Oemissionsaredependentonvehicletechnology,fuelandoperatingcharacteristics.TheTier 1methodentailsusingfuelspecificemissionfactorsforCH4andN2O.Wheretheamountsoffuelssold canbebrokendownbyvehicletype,aTier2methodcanbeused. Vehicle type should preferably be further split by vehicle age to enable categorization of vehicles by controltechnology(e.g.,byinferringtechnologyadoptionasafunctionofpolicyimplementationyear). Since the sulphur content of fuels did not change over the inventory period it was not necessary to accountforthedependenceoftheemissioncontrolsystemonthefuelsulphurcontent. MethodologyusedtoEstimateOnRoadEmissions Detailedfleetinformationwasobtainedinordertoapplyamodel(MOBILE6)toestimateemissionsof CO2,NMVOC,NOx,SO2andCOaccordingtoaTier3method.Themodeldoesnotprovideestimatesfor CH4andN2O;hencedefaultemissionfactorsandfuelusedatawereusedtoestimatetheseemissions. TheMOBILE6softwarewasdevelopedbytheUnitedStatesEnvironmentalProtectionAgency(USEPA) toprovideestimatesofcurrentandfutureemissionsfromhighwaymotorvehicles.MOBILE6calculates averageinusefleetemissionfactorsforvariouspollutantsincludingNMVOC, CO, NOx,andCO2,SO2, and brake wear particulate matter. Emissions can be estimated for gasoline, diesel and naturalgas fuelledcars,trucks,busesandmotorcyclesmanufacturedbetween1952and2050. The userspecified model inputs include climate and geographic related parameters (altitude, temperature), fuel characteristics, fleet information (age distribution, vehicle weight classes, vehicle miles travelled, number and duration of trips by vehicle class) road characteristics, average vehicle speeds and specification of the types of outputs needed. The model also includes a number of assumptionsthatarehardwiredandarespecifictotheUSfleet.Themostimportantoftheseinclude emission rates for various vehicle classes which were developed based on the introduction of US emissionandevaporativestandards.SuchstandardswerenotapplicabletoJamaicasincethemajority oftheJamaicanfleetisofJapaneseorigin. Emission standards were not easily compared because of differences in the test drive cycles, units of measurement and policy approaches. However, a methodology developed to determine the relative stringencyoffueleconomyandGHGemissionstandardsfoundthatEuropeanUnion(EU)andJapanese standards were the most stringent of nine automobile market regions that were compared11 (Figure 2.14).
An,F.andSauer,A.(2004)ComparisonofPassengerVehicleFuelEconomyandGreenhouseGasEmission StandardsAroundTheWorldPreparedforthePewCentreonGlobalClimateChange.
11
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Figure 2.14: Comparison of Fuel Economy and GHG Emission Standards Normalized by CAF Convertedmpg(FromAn&Sauer(2004))
MOBILE6 uses technology fractions to define the proportion of the fleet equipped with specific technology devices foundtobe significant in predicting inuse exhaust emission factors. The emission control technology mix in the US fleetwould not be applicabletoJamaica, especially for model years that were in use before the phase out of leaded gasoline in 1996. The Jamaican fleet information databaseobtainedfromInlandRevenueincludesvehiclemake(manufacturer),model,modelyearand curbandgrossvehicleweights(GVWR).Examinationofthedatarevealedseveralissues: The majority of gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) data (coded in the database as laden weights)wasmissing; Mostweightspresentwereunladen(curb)weightsbutthesametypesofweights(i.e.,ladenor unladen)werereportedindifferentunits(e.g.,poundsorhundredweight(cwt)andkilograms (kg)); Insomecases,andespeciallyintheheavydutyvehiclesclasses,thefueltype(gasoline/diesel) andvehicle(e.g.,tractor,trailer,motorcaretc)wereincorrectlyassigned; In a few cases the vehicle type was incorrectly coded (e.g., some Motor trucks should have beenMOTORTRACTetc. Considerable editing of the data was therefore required to insert GVWR (based on looking up manufacturers information according to vehicle make and model). In such cases, the fuel type data werecorrectedasneeded.Foroldervehicles,suchdatawerenotreadilyobtainedandinthosecases GVWRswereestimatedbasedonthecurbweightsandexpertjudgment. Considerable additional editing was required to correct the fuel type assignments for heavy duty vehicles. Statistics for the vehicle fleet composition (excluding trailers) between 2000 and 2005 are giveninTables2.12and2.13.
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Table2.12:BreakdownoftheJamaicanVehicleFleetin2005
Table2.13:BreakdownoftheJamaicanVehicleFleetin2000
Itshouldbenotedthatthefleetdatabase(asofDecember31,2005)includedvehiclesthataretypically classifiedasoffroadvehiclesnamelytractors,backhoes,bulldozersandsomeoftheseareidentified inthefleetdataas Motor Tractorspresumablybecause theycanspendsomeofthetimeonpublic roadways.Thesedata,inadditiontooffroadvehiclesusedintheminingsector,wereusedtoestimate emissionsfrom offroadvehicles.Thenumbers oftrailerslistedin thedatabase wasexcludedassuch fromthefleetdatausedinMOBILE6butineffect,theGVWRwouldandshouldincludetheweightofthe trailer(anditsmaximumload). ThekeyinputparametersusedinMOBILE6areindicatedinTable2.14.ThoserequiringJamaicaspecific valuesarehighlightedandarediscussedbelow.
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Table2.14:MOBILE6InputParameters
Registration(age)distributionbyvehicleclassandDieselsalesfractionsbyvehicleclassandmodelyear: Theonroadfleetdatabasewasusedtogeneratetheage(andvehicleclass)distributions(Table2.15). Retail fuels sales data were used to provide guidance on the overall fraction of diesel sales and the dieselfractionsbyvehicleclasswereestimatedbasedonknowledgeofthefleet.
Table2.15:AnnualVehicleRegistrations(200005)
Annualmileageaccumulationbyvehicleclass:Arecent12surveyofresidentialenergyendusersincluded estimates of distances travelled to work and school and these were used to provide one estimate of annual mileage accumulation for some vehicle classes. Table 2b of that report (reproduced in part in Table 2.15) included estimates of kilometres travelled in the past week of the survey for motor cars, SUVs,pickupsandMinivans/Busesandmotorcycles. Table2.16:EstimatesofWeeklyDistanceTravelledinthePastWeek*(2007)
Thesedatarepresentasnapshotandtheannualaccumulationestimatebasedonthesnapshotislikely onthelowsidebasedontheaddedcontributionsofthefollowing: Motor cars: taxis and fleets (police vehicles, rental cars) which have far greater annual mileageaccumulations. Pickupsandminibuses/vans:usebycommercialusersandfarestagebusesandtaxisarea largefractionofthefleetinthesevehicleclassesandhaveconsiderablyhigherrates; Motorcycles:thesedatamaybelesssubjecttohigherweightingsincetherearefewfleets orusersthathavesignificantlyhigheraccumulationrates. Inthecaseofurbanbuses,JamaicaUrbanTransitCompany(JUTC)andMontegoBayMetro report their annual kilometres travelled and these data were used (together with the numbersoftheiroperationalfleet)toprovideaccuratedatafortheurbanbusvehicleclass. Data for trucks represent a challenge and few data are available on which to make estimates. Averagespeedorspeeddistributionbyhourandroadway:Asinglevalueratherthanadistributionwas used. Distributionofvehiclemilestravelledbyroadwaytype(optional):Thisoptionwasnotused.
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Estimates of emissions were made for 2000 and 2005 and are presented in Tables 2.17 and 2.18 respectivelyforthevehicleclassesusedintheMOBILE6model.Themodeloutputsareemissionfactors forthevehiclecategoriesthat,whenmultipliedbythenumberofvehiclesineachcategory,willgivethe emissions.Modelresultswereusedtoestimatefuelconsumptiondataandthesewerecomparedwith MEMTfuel(gasolineanddiesel)dataforthetransportationsector(Tables2.17and2.18). Table2.17:EstimatesofMotorVehicleEmissions(2000)
Table2.18:EstimatesofMotorVehicleEmissions(2005)
Comparing the fuel consumption estimates for 2000 and 2005, there is a large discrepancy between 2000(~300kbblor33%fordieseland360kbblor7%forgasoline)and2005(10kbblor0.1%fordiesel and 760 k bbl or 16% for gasoline). These results warrant further analysis, even though in part they could be explained by the misclassification of the fuel type for a significant fraction of heavy duty vehiclesanduncertainallocationsofdieselfuelconsumptiontosomecategories. Railways(1A3c) RailtransportationinJamaicaislimitedtothemovementofbauxiteandalumina.Thereisnopassenger railservice.MEMTreportsrailroadfuelconsumptiondatabutthereareseveralinconsistenciesinterms of the fuels reported and the year to year variations. The reported fuels included gasoline, kerosene, asphaltandbunkerCwhicharenotattributabletorailtransportation.Eveninthecaseofdieselthe fuel used in rail engines the MEMT data did not match bauxite alumina production data (since the bauxite/aluminasectoristheonlyonethatusesrailways). Data for bauxite and alumina production, rail shipments and railrelated fuel use were available from twocompanies.Thesedata(fuelusepertonnekm)wereusedtoestimatefuelusefortheothertwo
facilities.Therail(diesel)fuelusewastakenintoaccountwhenestimatingthedieselfueluseformining. Thatis,thefueluseforminingisthetotalfueluselessthatforboilersandrail.Defaultemissionfactors fromthe2006IPCCGuidelines(forCO2,CH4andN2O)andthe1996RevisedIPCCGuidelines(forCOand NOx)wereusedtoestimaterailGHGemissions(Table2.19). Table2.19:RailwayEmissionEstimates(Gg)(200005)
WaterborneNavigation(1A3d)andOtherNavigation(1A3e) Thesesubsectorsincludeemissionsfromfuelsusedtopropeldomesticandinternationalwaterborne vessels excluding fishing vessels (Category 1A3d), Fishing (1A4c) and other [primarily military] (1A5b) andoffroadvehicles. Waterbornevesselsincategory1A3daremainlyrecreationalwithlimitedmovementofgoodsbetween Jamaicanports.Fueldeliveriestolocalendusersandtointernationalbunkersaretrackedbutsomefuel use data for domestic vessels are likely included in retail fuel sales at service stations and to some commercial customers. The current data collection does not distinguish between agriculture, forestry andfishingenduses(Category1A4c)butfueluseforthiscategoryiscapturedelsewhere(retailsales, governmentandothercategoriesarecompiledbyMEMT).Becauseofthis,nodataarereportedfor thiscategory.
The offroad category includes vehicles and mobile machinery used within mining (bulldozers, haul trucks), agriculture (agricultural tractors), industry (including construction and maintenance), forestry and residential sectors, and sectors such as airport ground support equipment. Engine types typically used in these offroad equipment include diesel and gasoline engines, 2stroke engines, and motor gasoline4strokeengines.Most,ifnotall,oftheoffroadmobileequipmentisincludedinthenational motorvehicledatabaseandisidentifiedasmotortractors.Theseincludetractors,bulldozers,scrapers, back hoes etc. Fuel use for these vehicles is included in the reports for the bauxite and alumina and cement industries and in the case of construction and other sectors (other industry) the fuel use is includedintheretaildieselandgasolinesales.Informationonthevehiclesusedontheairsideareasof airportsforgroundsupportequipmentwasnotreadilyavailable.Fueluseforoffroadvehicleswerenot reportedsincefuelsusedforthiscategoryarealsoincludedelsewhere(bauxiteminingvehicles,sugar andOther).
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Table2.20providestheemissionsforwaterborneandothernavigation.
2.3.4 FuelCombustionActivitiesOtherSectors(1a4) This sector includes emissions from combustion activities in commercial and institutional buildings (1A4a), residential buildings (1A4b) and emissions in agriculture, forestry and fishing industries (see Table2.21).Theemissionsincludethosefromfuelcombustionforthegenerationofownuseelectricity andheat. Table2.21:EmissionsfromCommercial/InstitutionalandResidentialSources(2000)
CommercialandInstitutionalBuildings(1A4a) Thesubsectorincludesemissionsfromthefollowingactivities(ISICCodes): Watersupply(ISIC41) Wholesale and retail trade; repair of motor vehicles, motorcycles and personal and householdgoods(ISIC5052) Hotelsandrestaurants(ISIC55) Supportingandauxiliarytransportactivities;activitiesoftravelagencies(ISIC63) Postandtelecommunications(ISIC64) Financialintermediation(ISIC6567) Realestate,rentingandbusinessactivities(ISIC7074) Publicadministrationanddefence;compulsorysocialsecurity(ISIC75) Education(ISIC80) Healthandsocialwork(ISIC85) Othercommunity,socialandpersonalserviceactivities(ISIC9093) Extraterritorialorganizationsandbodies(ISIC99).
Fuel use in this sector is limited to cooking since there is no heating of buildings. Fuel use data for government end users are routinely captured by MEMT. The fuels reported include gasoline, diesel, heavyfueloilandlubricants.Liquefiedpetroleumgas(LPG)isallocatedgeographically(urbanandrural), to a category called Other and Other Manufacturing. These allocations do not permit reliable estimatesofresidentialandcommercialendusers.ThecategoryOtherwasarbitrarilyassumedtobe commercialandinstitutionalendusersandurbanandruralsaleswereassumedtoberesidential.The OtherManufacturingcategorywasassignedtothemanufacturingsector. Arecentsurveyofresidentialconsumerenergyendusedidnotincludesufficientinformationtomake more reliable estimates of residential LPG use. The gasoline and diesel fuel and lubricants use are assumedtobeprimarilyfortransportationwithsmalleramountsforownuseelectricitygeneration.It wasnotfeasibletoestimatethesplitbetweentheseendusesandallofthesefuelsusedwereallocated totransportation.ThereporteduseofBunkerCbytheGovernmentsectorincreasedfrom3,701bblin 2000to84,207bblin2005buttheenduseforBunkerCwasnotclearandtheBunkerCvalueswere retainedinthissector. Sales of LPG were assumed to be for cooking at various institutions. It is also possible that some commercial institutions obtained LPG from retailers. Emission factors for CO2, CH4 and N2O from commercialandinstitutionalsourcesweretakenfromthe2006IPCCGuidelines. ResidentialBuildings(1A4b) ResidentialfueluseinJamaicaislimitedtoLPGforcookingandsmalleramountsofkerosene.Woodand charcoalarealsousedforcooking.Emissionfactors(Tier1)weretakenfromthe2006IPCCGuidelines. 2.3.5 FuelCombustionActivitiesNonSpecified(1A5) Sources in this category include stationary combustion sources not elsewhere listed and mobile emissionsfrommilitaryaviationandmarineactivities.Militaryfuelusedatawereavailableonlyfor2004 and2005andhencetheaveragevaluesfortheseyearswereassumedfor2000to2003.However,as notedabove,sincemilitaryaircraftwereincludedintheLTOdatafordomesticflightsandfueluseby JDFwasincludedinthedatafrommarketingcompanies,theemissionsfromthesemilitaryactivitiesare alreadyincludedintheinventory.ThedatainTable2.22areprovidedonlyforinformation.
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Table2.22:SummaryofEmissionsforNonSpecifiedSources(2000)
2.3.6 FugitiveEmissionsFromFuelsOilAndNaturalGasl(1B2) FugitiveEmissionsfromFuelsOilandNaturalGasFlaring(1B2bii) EmissionsofCO2,CH4andN2Ofromflaringofnaturalgasandwastegas/vapourstreamsatoilfacilities are included in subsector 1B2aii. The refinery13 provided estimates of the amount of gases flared. FugitiveemissionsofNMVOC(excludingventingandflaring)alsoarisefromthepetroleumrefinerydue to leaks at flanges and joints (sub sector 1B2aiii4) and from the transport and distribution of refined products(subsector1B2aiii5),includingthoseatbulkterminalsandretailfacilities.Evaporationlosses from storage, filling and unloading activities and fugitive equipment leaks are the primary sources of theseemissions.EmissionsfortheseprocessesaresummarizedinTable2.23.
13
Petrojam
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Table2.23:EmissionsfromtheOil&NaturalGasSector(2000)
2.3.7 Uncertainties,QualityAssuranceAndControlfortheEnergySector EmissionFactors EmissionfactorsforCO2aredeterminedbythecarboncontentsoffuelswhich,ingeneral,arereliably known for liquid petroleum based fuels but are less accurate for solid fuels. The fuels of interest in Jamaica are motor and aviation gasoline, diesel and residual fuel oils, kerosene, and LPG. Smaller amountsofcoal,bagasseandwoodareused.TheuncertaintiesintheCO2emissionfactorswerebased ontherangesprovidedforthedefaultemissionfactorsforstationarycombustiongiveninthe2006IPCC Guidelines. Uncertainties for CH4 and N2O emission factors were taken as 70% to +230% also based on values giveninthe2006IPCCGuidelines. ActivityValues
NationalfuelconsumptiondataarecompiledbyMEMT,whilesectoralfueldataforthebauxite/alumina industryarecompiledbyJBI.Intheformercase(salesaswellasimportdata),reportsarefiledbythe refineryandpetroleummarketingcompanies.ThesectoralassignmentsbyMEMTdonotalwaysmatch thetraditional(i.e.,ISIC)categories.Forexample,endusecategoriescalledOther,Governmentand OtherManufacturingisreportedbutthedataarenotdisaggregatedintosectorscorrespondingtoISIC codes.Completefuelusesforsomeactivities(mining,railtransportationandlimemanufacture)were not always available. For example, when mining operations are subcontracted by bauxite/alumina companiesandthefueluseforalllimemanufacturingplantswerenotincludedindataavailablefrom MEMTorJBI.ItisalsouncleariffuelusebytheJamaicaDefenceForcewasincludedinGovernment. Because of these groupings, the required reports for some IPCC categories were either not reported separately (Food Processing, Beverages and Tobacco) or were likely incomplete (mining which was reportedinthisinventoryonlyforbauxitemining).Ontheotherhand,fuelusedatawereavailablefor the sugar industry and were reported separately. Some of the diesel fuel consumption by categories such as bauxite/alumina, sugar would have been used for transportation (i.e., onroad and offroad purposes)anditwasnotfeasibletoseparatesuchusefromfuelcombustion.Theseallocationshowever constitute uncertainties not in the amounts used but rather in the allocation to sectors that are consistent with the IPCC sectors (which are aligned with ISIC categories). In the case of international aviationbunkers,theoperationofflightsbetweenthetwointernationalairportsaslegsofinternational routesrequiresadjustmentforthedomesticcomponent. Theonroadfleetdatabasehadsignificant gapsinvehicleweightsaswellasmisallocationsoftype of fuel used by vehicles and vehicle type. Some, but not all, of these errors were corrected; additional editing of the database is required. It is also not clear how vehicles that are no longer in use are removed from the data base. There are also uncertainties in the annual vehicle kilometres travelled (exceptforJUTCbuses),sinceodometerdataarenotcapturednorhavetherebeensurveysdedicated tocapturingsuchdata.Informationthatshouldbeavailablefromfleetmanagementoperatorsandthe Transport Authority should help to provide better estimates of the annual vehicle miles travelled. Estimatesoftheseemissionswillbemoreuncertainthanifonlyfuelconsumptiondataareused.Activity data(i.e.,fuelconsumption)forestimatingthefuelusebydomesticfishingandrecreationalboatingas wellaslimitedcommercial(cargo)trafficbetweenJamaicanports arenot availablesincesomeofthe salesarerecordedinotherendusecategories. 2.4 IndustrialProcessesAndProductUse(IPPU)GHGEmissions This sector addresses GHG emissions that are released from industrial processes that chemically or physically transform materials and from the use of products which contain GHGs. Products such as refrigerators, foams or aerosol cans contain GHGs which can be released over time as the product is usedandserviced.HFCsareusedasalternativestoozonedepletingsubstances(ODS)invarioustypesof productapplications.Similarly,SF6andN2Oareusedinanumberofproductsusedinindustry. ThesourcecategoriescoveredintheIndustrialProcessesSectorandthosethatarepresentinJamaica andthereforerelevantfortheinventoryaresummarizedinTable2.24.Thesourcesthatarepresentin JamaicaareindicatedbyaYor*.Intheformercase(Y),theinventoryincludesaspecificworksheet toidentifyemissionswhileinthelattercase(*)theemissionestimatesareincludedinanothersector (becausedatawerenotavailabletodisaggregatetheemissions).
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Table2.24:IndustrialProcessesandProductUseSourceCategoriesPresentin Jamaica
2.4.1 MineralIndustry(2A) Cement and lime are produced in Jamaica by the calcinations of limestone. Cement is used in the constructionindustrywhilelimeisusedintheprocessingofbauxiteintoaluminaandalsointhesugar industry.Table2.25showsthesummaryofCO2emissionsfromcementandlimeproduction(CO2isthe onlyGHGreleased). Table2.25:CO2EmissionsfromtheMineralIndustry(2000)
Theemissionstrendsfor200005forcementandlimeproduction,aswellasnonenergyproductsfrom fuelsandsolventuse(i.e.,lubricants,paraffinwax,solventsandasphaltproduction)areshowninFigure 2.15.
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Figure2.15:CO2emissionsfromtheIndustrialProcessesandProductUseSector(200005)
CementProduction(2A1) ThesinglecementplantinJamaicaproduceslimeform,highqualitylimestoneanduseslocalshaleand gypsum. Imports of cement (no clinker is imported) are used to supplement local needs. The Tier 1 method(equation3.1)requiresthecementproductiontogetherwithimportsandexportsofclinker. The plant uses 0.2 tonne of gypsum for every tonne of clinker in the production of cement. Annual cement production (as well as cement import) data were provided by the company. There were no importsofclinkerovertheperiod200005.TheCO2emissionswereestimatedat258Ggin2000(Table 2.25). LimeProduction(2A2) Limeisproducedatkilnslocatedatornearaluminarefineriesandatoneotherlocation.Annuallime production(asCaO)datawereprovideddirectlybyfourofthefivelimemanufacturingplants.TheCO2 emissionsfromlimemanufacturingwereestimatedat239Ggin2000(Table2.25). 2.4.2 ChemicalIndustry(2B) TheonlyfacilityqualifyingasachemicalindustryinJamaicaisafacilitythatmakessulphuricacid. SulphuricAcid(2B10) ProductiondataforsulphuricacidwereobtainedfromtheEconomicandSocialSurveyJamaica,2005. The emission factor for SO2 from sulphuric acid manufacture was assumed to be 13 kg/Mg product, assuming98%conversionefficiencyforSO2toSO3.Emissionswerenegligible.
2.4.3 NonEnergyProductsFromFuelsAndSolventUse Theemissionsfromtheuseoflubricants,paraffin waxes, solvents,and theproduction of asphaltand useareincludedinthissubsector.TheresultingCO2andNMVOCemissionsfor2000aregiveninTable 2.26.ThetrendinCO2emissionsfor200005isshowninFigure2.15above. Table2.26:EmissionsfromNonEnergyProductUsesofFuelsandOtherChemicalProducts(2000)
LubricantUse(2D1) Lubricants are mostly used in industrial and transportation applications. The associated emissions are thereforeconsideredasnoncombustionemissionsandareincludedintheIPPUSector.Theemissions fromlubricantsusedin2strokeengines,inwhichthelubricatingoilismixedwithanotherfuelandboth areintentionallyburned,arereportedintheenergysector. The CO2 emissions were estimated using the Tier 1 methodology since more detailed data on the amountsofeachtypeoflubricantandtheassociatedODUs(oxidisedduringuse)requiredfortheTier2 method were not available. The default carbon content and ODU factor (0.2) were used. Lubricant consumption data (based on sales by petroleum marketing companies and Petrojam) are routinely captured and reported byMEMT. Estimatesof CO2emissions from lubricant use in 2000 (36.4Gg) are includedinTable2.24. ParaffinWaxUse(2D2) Paraffinwaxesareusedinapplicationssuchas:candles,corrugatedboxes,papercoating,boardsizing, food production, wax polishes and surfactants(as used in detergents). CO2 emissions from theuse of waxesderiveprimarilywhenthewaxesorderivativesofparaffinareburnedduringuse(e.g.,candles), and when they are incinerated with or without heat recovery or in wastewater treatment (for surfactants).Inthecasesofincinerationandwastewatertreatment,theemissionsarereportedinthe EnergyorWasteSectors,respectively. ParaffinwaxandpetroleumjellyimportdatawereobtainedfromSTATINandthedefaultvaluesforthe carbon content (20.0 kg/GJ) and ODU (0.2) were used to estimate CO2 emissions using the Tier 1 methodology.Atotalof0.4GgofCO2emissionswereestimatedfor2000(Table2.24).
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AsphaltProductionandUse(2D4) Emissions in this subsector include those from the use of bitumen in production of asphalt and its applicationinroadpavingandroofingoperations.Emissionsoccurduringtheuseofliquidasphaltsas pavementsealant,inasphaltproductioninhotmixplantsandsubsequentreleasesfromtheroadand roof surfaces. In the production of liquid asphalts (i.e., cutback asphalts), bitumen is mixed with a diluents(e.g.,kerosene)typically24to35percentbyvolumeintheliquidasphalt.Nearlyall(typically 95%) of the diluents is assumed to evaporate as NMVOC, since only rapidcure cut back asphalts are used.Asphaltemulsionsarealsoliquidbutconsistofanemulsionofbitumenwithwater(typicallyabout 40%water).Cutbackasphaltsandasphaltemulsionsareusedforpatching/repairingroadsurfacesand asaprecoatinroadconstruction. Theproductionofhotmixasphaltentailsheatingandmixingaggregateandbitumeninahotmixplant or in a drum mixer near the road application site. The production and use of asphalt result mainly in emissions of NMVOC as well as CO, SO2 and particulate matter. The remaining hydrocarbons remain storedintheproduct(muchlessthanonepercentofthecarbonisemitted). The use of asphalt in roofing materials in Jamaica is assumed negligible relative to road construction usesandwasthereforenotdisaggregated.Activitydatatoestimateemissionsfromasphaltemulsions were derived from the net consumption data. The amounts of cutback asphalt were estimated from (nondomestic)kerosenesalesandassumingthatthecutbackcontains35percentkerosene. Data were obtained from MEMT. All remaining bitumen was assumed to be used in hot mix asphalt plants. Emission factors of 242 kg NMVOC/tonne (88 lb NMVOC/bbl bitumen) and 25.3 kg NMVOC/tonne (9.2 lb/bbl asphalt) respectively for cutback asphalt and emulsified asphalt were used (Table 17.5.2USEPAEmission InventoryImprovementProgram, 2001.Volume III: Chapter 17Asphalt Paving).Import,consumptionandemissionsdataaregiveninTable2.27.
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Table2.27:NetProductionandConsumptionandEmissionsforAsphalt(200005)
2.4.4 ProductUsesAsSubstitutesForOzoneDepletingSubstances(2F) Thefluorinatedreplacementchemicalsforozonedepletingsubstances(ODSs)ofinterestareHFCsand PFCs because they have high global warming potentials (GWPs) and they are not reported under the MontrealProtocol.[SubstancesreportedundertheMontrealProtocolincludeCFCs,Halons,OtherFully HalogenatedCFCs,CarbonTetrachloride,MethylChloroform,HCFCs,HBFCs,Bromochloromethaneand MethylBromide.]HFCsandPFCsarefoundinvariousapplicationssuchas: RefrigerationandAirConditioning MobileAirConditioning FoamBlowingAgents FireProtection Aerosols Solvents These applications utilise a range of chemicals (HFCs, CFCs and HCFCs) and have a wide range of emission characteristics. For example, HFCs and PFCs in rigid foam (typically closedcell foam), refrigeration and fire suppression equipment can lead to longlived banks of material. Other applications,suchasaerosols,solventsandsolventcleaningmayhave shortterminventoriesofstock butcanbeconsideredassourcesofpromptemissions.Thisalsoappliestoflexiblefoams(typicallyopen cellfoams). TherearenoknownusesofSF6inJamaicaandneitherwasthereanyinformationforHFCsinaerosol productsandfoamproductsinJamaicasotheseapplicationswereignored.Refrigeratorsandfreezers manufacturedbefore2005wereinsulatedwithfoamthatcontaineitherCFCsorHCFCs,butsince2005 HFCshavebeenusedinfoamblowingagentsinrefrigeratorsandfreezers.Consequently,HFCemissions fromfoamproductswereignoredalso.
SomefiresuppressionsystemsinJamaicauseHFCs(HFC227ea)andthereislimiteduseofHFCs(HFC 245fa)asasolvent.Table2.28summarizestheHFCsandPFCsusedinvariousapplicationstogetherwith an indication of the HFCs that are known to be present in applications used in Jamaica. Estimates of HFCsweremadeforrefrigeration,airconditioning,mobileairconditioning,firesuppressionandsolvent applications. Table2.28:MainApplicationAreasforHFCsandPFCsandtheirGWPandIndicationofHFCsImported intoJamaica(shaded)

RefrigerationandAirConditioning(2F1) JamaicabeganphasingouttheuseofCFCsinrefrigerationandairconditioning(RAC)systemsin1998; replacing them with Freon 22 and, more recently, with HFCs and blends containing HFCs. Import restrictions for CFCsbased on a declining quota system wereput in place in1999 and importation of CFCs ceased in December 2005. CFC imports to Jamaica decreased from 210.4 tonnes in 1999 to 5 tonnesin2005.HCFCimportsdecreasedfrom11.3tin2001to0.7tin2006.TherefrigerantR22isused mainlyinairconditioningsystemswhileHFC134aisusedalmostexclusivelyinmobileairconditioning systemsandalsoinsometypesofrefrigerationapplications. Sincethereisnoproduction,exportordestructionofvirginHFCsandPFCsinJamaica,emissionswere therefore calculated using the Tier 1a method in the 2006 Revised Guidelines. The Tier 1a method is based on application level (as opposed to equipment level) data. This required annual chemical consumption data derived from imports of bulk (cylinders) chemicals in products/applications (refrigerators,stationaryandmobileairconditionersetc.).Thelatterreflecttheamountsinbanks. ImportdatawereobtainedfromSTATINfor200005.Emissionestimatesforeachyearweremadeusing thefollowingassumptions: Percentdefaultemissionfactorappliedtobankinventoryannually;and Firstyearofintroductionofeachchemicalusedasbankinventoryyear. Imports of refrigeration and air conditioning equipment are indicated in Tables 2.29 and 2.30 and an equipmentprofileforJamaicain2002isgiveninTable2.31. Table2.29:BulkimportsofHFCs(200005) IMPORTS(KG)
YEAR HFC 23 HFC32 HFC125 HFC 134a HFC 143a HFC 152 a HFC227ea HFC 236f a HFC HFC 245fa 365mf c HFC 43 10me e
200 0.0 1,144.0 2,935.6 1,352.0 18. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0 1 200 0.0 1,645.3 34,980. 1,945.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 640. 1 0 8 200 0.0 3,430.9 48,426. 7,526.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2 8 200 28.8 3,624.6 51,206. 4,018.7 0.0 6,308.20. 0.0 25.4 3 7 0 200 1,036. 16,065. 41,318. 2,326.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4 1 0 5 200 868.5 7,041.1 69,253. 10,521. 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5 8 2 Table2.30:ImportsofRefrigerationandAirConditioningEquipment(200006) EQUIPMENTTYPE 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 DomesticRefrigeration 53,659 45,627 54,935 52,568 58,394
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2005 60,588
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StandaloneCommercial NA NA Applications Medium&Large 517 297 CommercialRefrigeration Residential&Commercial 3,219 4,488 A/CincludingHeatPumps MobileA/C 22,270 23,175 Table2.31:EquipmentProfileforJamaica(2002) EQUIPMENTTYPE UNITS SmallA/Cunits 176,000 MediumsizedA/Cunits 840 LargeA/Cunits 90 MobileA/C 233,000* Chillers 30 HomeRefrigerators 560,00
5,296 347 5,513 25,825
3,980 525 6,750 30,131
3,610 1,733 10,007 22,114
4,702 1,171 20,035 16,449
CHARGE(KG) 1.5 75 200 104 200600 0.4
CFCPOPULATION 80,000 500 12 60%
A/C units and chillers were in 3196 establishments. *The estimate was based on the number of Certificates of Fitnessissues
Import data for bulk HFC chemicals by chemical compound (Table 2.28) were obtained from the StatisticalInstituteofJamaica(STATIN).TheindividualHFCswerecalculatedfromthepureHFCproducts and the percentages of HFCs in blends. Some shipments consisted of a number of different cylinders that were not always completely itemized by product. In such cases thetotal weight of the shipment wasallocatedevenlyamongthoseproductslistedtakingintoconsiderationdifferentcylinderweights thatwereprovided.Theimportdatadidnotallowtheidentificationoftheenduseincaseswherethe HFChasmorethanoneapplication(especiallyR134awhichisusedinrefrigerationaswellasinmobile airconditioning). Householdrefrigeratorsandwindowairconditioningunits(seeTable2.29)arereadilyidentifiedinthe import data, but data for medium sized and larger systems in industrial, commercial and institutional establishments,thetypeandsizeoftheunitswerenotalwaysclearlyidentifiable. The numbers of vehicles imported each year were obtained from STATIN, Ministry of Transport and Works Annual Transport Statistics Report: Jamaica in Figures 20032004 (2005) and 20042005 (2006) andtheMinistryofTransportandWorksDraftNationalTransportPolicy(2007)inordertoestimatethe numberofmobileairconditioningunits.Therearesomerefrigeratedvehiclesbuttheirnumberisnot known. All household refrigerators and mobile air conditioning equipment imported between 2000 and 2005 wasassumedtobechargedwithHFC134a.Itwasalsoassumedthatallmotorcars,trucksandtractors (but not trailers) imported during 200005 were equipped with air conditioners. The charges in the household refrigerators and mobile air conditioners given in Table 2.31 were used to estimate the amountsofHFCs(R134a)inthisimportedequipment.
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Forsmallairconditioners(window&wallunits)thevastmajorityimportedoverthesameperiodwill haveHCFCFreon(R22)withsmallernumbersofunitswithrefrigerantssuchasR410a. Inthecaseofthemediumsizedandlargersystemsincommercial andindustrialestablishments(e.g., refrigerator/freezer chests/cabinets/showcases, air conditioners with reverse cycle refrigeration, chillers,etc.)itwasnotfeasibletodeterminepreciselythesizesofsystemsandthetypesofrefrigerants chargedintheimportedsystems.SincetherewerebulkchemicalimportsofR227andHFCblends(R 404a,R410a,R408a)itisevidentthatthesewereusedtoserviceexistingequipment.Becauseofthis, theuseofTier2methodswasnotfeasibleandsotheTier1methodinthe2006IPCCGuidelineswas used. The default values for the assumed equipment lifetime(15 years) and emission factor from the installedbase (15%) and the %destroyed at end of life (0%) were used. Table 2.32 shows the annual emissionsoftheHFCsfromrefrigerationandairconditioning. Table2.32:AnnualHFCEmissionsfromRefrigerationandAirConditioning(200005) COMPOUND EMISSIONS(TONNE) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 HFCs/PFCs 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 HFC23 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 HFC32 0.3 0.4 1.3 2.0 2.0 2.8 HFC125 0.9 30.1 43.9 54.6 63.0 75.6 HFC134a 0.4 0.6 2.2 2.8 2.7 3.9 HFC143a 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 HFC152a 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 HFC236fa 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 FireProtection(2F3) ExaminationoftheimportdataindicatedthattheonlyHFCimportedforfiresuppressionduring2000 05 was HFC227e (trade name FM200). Fire suppression systems using FM200 are typically used in computer and telecommunication rooms. Imports of FM200 occurred only in 2003, even though applicationsusingFM200inJamaicahavebeeninuseforsometime.Therewereinsufficientdatato makereliableestimatesofemissions. Aerosols(PropellantsandSolvents)(2F4) Mostaerosolpackagescontainhydrocarbon(HC)aspropellantsbutHFCsandPFCsmayalsobeusedas propellantsorsolventsinasmallfractionofthetotal.Emissionsfromaerosolsusuallyoccurshortlyafter production,onaveragesixmonthsaftersale. Thefivemainsubapplicationsareasfollows: MeteredDoseInhalers(MDIs); PersonalCareProducts(e.g.,haircare,deodorant,shavingcream); HouseholdProducts(e.g.,airfresheners,ovenandfabriccleaners); Industrial Products (e.g., special cleaning sprays such as those for operating electrical contact,lubricants,pipefreezers); OtherGeneralProducts(e.g.,sillystring,tyreinflators,klaxons).
TheHFCscurrentlyusedaspropellantsareHFC134a,HFC227ea,andHFC152a.ThesubstancesHFC 245fa, HFC365mfc, HFC4310mee and a PFC, perfluorohexane, are used as solvents in industrial aerosolproducts.Ofthese,HFC4310meeisthemostwidelyused.11HFC365mfcisalsoexpectedto beusedwithinaerosolsinthenearfuture. DatafortheregionthatincludesJamaica(RestofLatinAmericawhichincludesCaribbeancountries)as reportedbytheUSEPAindicatedthatHFCemissionsduetoaerosolusein2005wereestimatedat0.10 tonne carbon dioxide eq. for MDIs and nil for nonMDI applications. On this basis the emissions in Jamaicawereassumedtobenegligible. ThereislimiteduseofHFCsasasolventandtheonlyapplicationidentifiedwastheuseofHFC245fa (trade name FC129)whichisusedasasurfactantinsomepaints. Smallquantities (atotalof666 kg) wereimportedin2001and2003. Itwasassumedthatthequantityimportedwasusedovercurrentandthefollowingtwoyearsthatall amountsusedwereemittedintheyearofuseandthattheamountimportedin1999wasthesameas thatin2001.TheemissionsforHFC245faaresummarizedinTable2.33. Table2.33:AnnualEmissionsforHFCsusedasSolvents(200005) YEAR IMPORTS(TONNE) EMISSIONS(GG) 2000 0 0.0002 2001 0.6408 0.0004 2002 0 0.0002 2003 0.0254 0.0002 2004 0 0.0000 2005 0 0.0000 MedicalApplications N2Oemissionsarisefromvarioustypesofproductuse,including: Medicalapplications(anaestheticuse,analgesicuseandveterinaryuse); Use as a propellant in aerosol products, primarily in food industry (pressurepackaged whippedcream,etc); Oxidizingagentandetchantusedinsemiconductormanufacturing; Oxidizingagentused,withacetylene,inatomicabsorptionspectrometry; Productionofsodiumazide,whichisusedtoinflateairbags; Fueloxidantinautoracing;and Oxidizingagentinblowtorchesusedbyjewellersandothers. MedicalapplicationsaretheonlyknownapplicationsinJamaicaandallimportswereassumedtobeas such. Medical applications will result in all of the N2O being emitted. Import data were available for 200004(seeTable2.34)andhencedatafor2005wereassumedtobethesameasfor2004. Table2.34:NitrousOxideImportsandEmissions(200004) YEAR 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Import(kg) 52,036.0 78,177.0 87,212.0 62,340.0 73,037.0 NA Emissions 52.0 65.1 82.7 74.8 67.7 73.0
(tonne) 2.4.5 Other(2H) The use of some solvents and certain consumer products are significant sources of emissions of NMVOCs. The 2006 IPCC Guidelines did not include a section on estimates of emissions from solvent use.ExamplesofthesolventsandproductsthatreleaseNMVOCsandarerelevantforJamaicaaregiven inTable2.35.ThesourcesthatarepresentinJamaicaareindicatedbyaYor*.Intheformercase (Y), the inventory includes a specific worksheet to identify emissions while in the latter case (*) the emissionestimatesareincludedinanothersector(becausedatawerenotavailabletodisaggregatethe emissions). Table2.35:SourceCategoriesforNMVOCEmissionsPresentinJamaica Subcategory DescriptionofSolvent Relevantto Jamaica Surfacecoating(e.g. Applicationsofpaints,lacquer,enamelandprimertocans, Y painting)operations woodproducts,metalparts,buildings,etc.Useofthinning solvents. Papercoatingoperations Coatingoperations,mixing,anduseofthinningsolvents. N Printingandpublishing Pressoperations,lithography,anduseofthinning * solvents. Generalsolventuse Vapourdegreasing,drycleaning,textilemanufacture, Y personalcare&householdproductsuse. Productionoftrucksand Surfacecoating,cleaning/degreasingoperations. N automobiles Shipbuilding Surfacecoating,cleaning/degreasingoperations. N Chemicalproducts Solventsareusedinavarietyofapplicationsinthe N manufactureand manufacturingofchemicalsandchemicalproducts.Textile fabricprinting,manufactureofrubberproducts,polyester processing resinplasticproductsmanufacture,tankanddrum cleaning,wastesolventreclamation,solventdegreasing. Graphicarts Generalgraphicalprinting,publicationgravureprinting. * Commercial and consumer use of various products release VOCs when the product is used (e.g., painting)andVOCsevaporate,orwhenthereisdirectreleaseintotheatmosphere(e.g.,aerosolsprays). CommercialandconsumerproductsthatreleaseVOCsincludeaerosols,householdproducts,toiletries, rubbing compounds, windshield washing fluids, polishes and waxes, nonindustrial adhesives, space deodorants,mothcontrolapplications,andlaundrydetergentsandtreatments. FoodandBeveragesIndustry Emissions of NMVOC occur in the manufacture of alcoholic beverages (rum and beer) and from food production (primarily bread and cakes; margarine and solid cooking fats). Production data for the productsexceptbreadwereobtainedfromEconomicandSocialSurveyofJamaica(ESSJ)reports.Data for bread and baked products were estimated from FAO per capita consumption for wheat & wheat products(FAOSTATwww.fao.org/faostat/foodsecurity/index_en.htm)andpopulationdata.
Emission factors (kg NMVOC/tonne food) were obtained from the 1996 Revised IPCC Guidelines for Meat, Fish and Poultry, Coffee roasting, Margarine & solid cooking fats, Bread (Wheat & Wheat products),SugarandAnimalFeed.TheNMVOCemissionsaregiveninTable2.36.
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Table2.36:NMVOCEmissionsfromtheFoodandBeverageIndustry(200005) Product EmissionFactor NMVOCEmissions(Gg) (kg NMVOC/ tonneproduced) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Meat,FishandPoultry 0.3 0.023 0.025 0.025 0.028 0.025 0.031 Coffeeroasting 0.55 0.018 0.015 0.022 0.016 0.018 0.010 Margarine&solidcookingfats 10 0.062 0.068 0.067 0.068 0.074 0.070 Bread(wheat&wheatproducts) 8 1.703 1.681 1.958 2.210 2.473 2.789 Sugar 10 0.833 0.705 0.662 0.663 0.981 0.768 AnimalFood 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA Total 2.64 2.49 2.73 2.98 3.58 3.67 Paints Estimates for emissions from paints were based on the local production data plus imports minus exports.Emissionsfrompaintsdependonthesolventcontentofpaint,whichmayvaryevenwithinthe sametypeofpaint.Theestimatesaremadebymultiplyingthesalesdata(massofpaint)foreachtype ofpaintbyanaveragesolventcontentforeachtypeofpaint(seeTable2.37). Table2.37:TypicalSolventContentforPaints
The net paint trade data were obtained from the UN Statistics Division Commodity Trade Database whilelocalproductiondata(Table2.38)wereobtainedfromtheESSJ2005. Table2.38:LocalPaintProductionData(200005) Production(000litres) VOC (g/L) Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Total 9,624 9,363 10,337 11,216 11,283 12,073 Waterbased(60%) 5,774 5,618 6,202 6,730 6,770 7,244 380 Solventbased(40%) 3,850 3,745 4,135 4,486 4,513 4,829 600 Solventandwaterbasedpaintproductionorpaintplantcapacitydatafor2003obtainedfromNational Environment and Planning Agency (NEPA) indicated that the split between solvent and water based paintswasapproximately60%forwaterbasedand40%forsolventbasedpaintsandthesamesplitwas assumedfor theotheryears.TheNMVOCcontentfor importedpaints were assumedtomeettheUS
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Nationallimitsfornonflatinteriorandexteriorcoatings(380g/L)andvarnishes(600g/L);theselimits wereusedrespectivelyforthewaterbasedandsolventbasedpaintsproducedlocally. ThelocalpaintswereassumedtomeettheJamaicaBureauofStandardsspecificationswhichhavelimits forthepercentageofvolatilematter[includingwater)of55%forflatemulsion(interiorandexteriorlow sheen and semigloss) and 35% oil modified alkyd interior and exterior paints. In the absence of VOC content from local paint manufacturers, the VOC contents from the UN Statistics Division Commodity TradeDatabase(380g/Lforwaterbasedand600g/lforsolventbasedpaints)wereusedtoestimate NMVOCemissions.Itwas alsoassumedthatallpaintsproducedwereusedintheyearofproduction. NMVOCemissionestimatesaregiveninTable2.39. Table2.39:NMVOCEmissionsfromPaints(200005)
PersonalCareProducts Emissionsforcommercial/consumersolventuse(exceptpaints)arebasedonmultiplyingthepopulation databythepercapitaemissionfactorsforconsumerandcommercialsolventuse.Nospecificguidance isprovidedinthe2006IPCCGuidelineondefaultemissionfactorsforpersonalcareproducts.Emission factorsforcommercialandconsumersolventuseavailablefromUSorEuropeansourceswereusedin theabsenceofotherdata.Table2.40identifiespercapitaemissionfactorspublishedbytheUSEPAfor Commercial/ConsumerSolventUsage.EmissionsestimatesaregiveninTable2.41. Table2.40:EvaporativeEmissionsfromCommercial/ConsumerSolventUse
Table2.41:EvaporativeEmissionsfromCommercial/ConsumerSolventUse(200005)
2.4.6 Uncertainties,QualityAssuranceAndControl Cement:Plantspecificcementproductionandhistoricalfractionofclinkerincementwereavailableand wereconsideredtohaveanuncertaintyof(5%)nearthemiddleofthetypicaluncertaintyrange(27%) forthefractionofCaOinclinker.Theuncertaintyintheemissionfactorwasassumednegligiblesinceit dependsonthestoichiometryforthereleaseofCO2fromlimestone. Lime:Plantspecificdatawereobtainedforthreeoffourlimeplantsbutonlyoneplantprovidedlime (CaO) content data. Because of this, the uncertainty in activity data is estimated as 4%. The emission factorisbasedonstoichiometryandtheuncertaintyintheemissionfactorisdeterminedbythatinthe compositionoflime.Onlyoneofthefourplantsprovideddatabasedonchemicalanalysisandhence theuncertaintyisestimatedtobe8%atthehighendofthetypicalrange(48%).Limeproductiondata werecomparedwithlimeuseinthealuminaandsugarindustriesandwerefoundtobeconsistent. Sulphuric acid: Production data were obtained from national statistical data (in the absence of plant specific data) which were rounded to the nearest thousand tonnes. The estimated uncertainty in the activity(production)datais10%.Theemissionfactorused(CORINAIRSNAP040401)hadarangeof10 to25kg/Mgor41%. HFCs: The data in Table 2.30 regarding imports of RAC equipment were based on the number of Certificates of Fitness issued and nearly all motor vehicles (excluding motor cycles) were assumed to haveairconditioning;60%ofwhichwereassumedtocontainCFCs.Theimportsmaybecomparedwith theestimatesforthepopulationsofthevariousequipmenttypesfor2002(UNDP,2002.UnitedNations Development Programme, Project of the Government of Jamaica, Project Document). CFCs were the refrigerantofchoiceupto1993whenHFC134aorR401Cwasintroduced.Ithasbeenassumedthat 60% of vehicles globally were equipped with HFC134a in 1995 (Baker, J.A. (1998). Mobile Air Conditioning:HFC134aEmissionsandEmissionReductionStrategies.UNEPTEAPHFC/PFCTaskForce). EstimatesofpotentialHFCemissionsweremadeinordertoserveasaqualitycontrol(QC)checkonthe Tier1method. LubricantandParaffinWaxUse:ThedefaultuncertaintiesintheODUfactors(50%)wereusedforthe uncertainty in emission factors. The reporting of lubricant consumption appeared to be given lower priority and an uncertainty of 20% was assumed. The activity data for paraffin wax were based on import data. The end use of paraffin wax is uncertain since CO2 emissions occur only in the case of candles or when products containing paraffin waxes are burned. Import data did not always allow identificationofcandleuseandsomewaxcoatedproductsareplacedinlandfillsinsteadofburned.An uncertaintyestimateof50%wasassumedinthecaseoftheactivitydataforparaffinwax SolventUsePaints:PaintproductiondataarereportedtoPIOJbutthereportedproductiondataarenot broken down by type of paint. There are three local standards for paints but they do not include specificationsfortheVOCcontentbasedonthepaintapplicationunlikestandardsforpaintsinEurope
andNorthAmerica.Uncertaintiesintotalproductionareconsideredtobeabout10%(becauseofthe rounding).Thesplitbetweensolventandwaterbasedpaintswasassumedtobethesameforallyears basedondatareportedforoneyear.Theuncertaintiesareestimatedtobe30%foractivity(production data)and30%foremissionfactors. Asphalt/Bitumen:TheemissionfactorsforNMVOCemulsionandcutbackasphaltusewillbeabout100 percentuncertain(i.e.,between50percentand+100percent).Theconsumptiondatawereestimated fromkerosenedataandtheuncertaintiesareestimatedtobe50%becauseofdifficultiesinassigning enduseforfuels. Personal care products: Estimates are based on population data and per capita use for personal care productsderivedfromUSdata.Theformerisconsideredtohaveanuncertaintyof2%buttheuseofUS data and the dependence of product use on factors such as lifestyle, income, climate, etc., make estimatesoftheuncertaintychallenging.Anuncertaintyof200%fortheemissionfactorwasarbitrarily assumed. 2.5 AGRICULTURE,FORESTRYANDOTHERLANDUSESECTORGHGEMISSIONSANDSINKS 2.5.1 Forestry ThissectionaddressesJamaicas GHG inventoryestimatesfortheforestryandlandusesectorforthe years 200005. It was prepared using on 2006 IPCC Guidelines. Fairly good country specific data are availablefortheforestsandlandusesectorsinJamaica.Asystematicdatagatheringprocessstartedin 2000afteracriticalanalysisoftheexistinglanduse/coverandlandclassificationsystemswascompleted bytheForestryDepartment(CamirandandEvelyn,2003).Thisanalysisdeterminedthatnosystemhad thecharacteristicsorcapabilityforclassifyingJamaicanforestsforforestmanagement,conservation,or the evaluation for forest development. A standardized broad classification system was developed for usewithsatelliteimageryandaerialphotographinterpretation.Anaerialphotointerpretationmanual wasalsopreparedwhichprovidesguidelinesforinterpretationofthevariouslandusetypesonaerial photographs(ForestryDepartment,2001).
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Figure2.16:DiagramofLandUse/CoverTypesHierarchicalClassificationinJamaica14
14
SourceEvelynandCamirand(2003)
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Theprocessisahierarchicalsystem,asshowninFigure2.16.EvelynandCamirand(2003)alsousedthis classification system for reporting, among other things, details of deforestation and land use/cover changesinJamaicafrom198998.Theyreportedthattherateoflossinforestcoverduringthatperiod was0.1%.Alanduseconversionmatrixshowingtheareachangesfromonelanduse/covertoanother duringthatperiodwasalsoreported. The2006IPCCGuidelinesrequirereportingonsixlandusecategories. These categories are not dissimilar to Jamaicas national classes. For the National Forest Inventory Report 2003 (Camirand and Evelyn, 2004), the islands land uses were determined using 1992 colour aerialphotographsfollowingtheproceduresoutlinedintheForestryDepartmentAerialInterpretation Manual(ForestDepartment,2001).Theclasseswerethenaggregatedto11categories(seeTable4in Camirand and Evelyn, 2004). At the national level, these categories were further divided into three broadcategories:Forest,MixedandNonForest.ThisclassificationisshowninTable2.42togetherwith howtheyrelatetotheGHGInventoryclasses. Table2.42:NationalLandUse/CoverClassesandEquivalentGHGCategories15
15
ModifiedandextendedfromCamirandandEvelyn,(2004)
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Theareaofforestedlandsestimatedfor2005afterreclassificationandcalibrationfortheFAOGlobal Forest Resource Assessment 2005 Country Report (FRA, 2005) was 341,000 ha (30%) of the islands surfacearea.Mostofthislandcouldbeclassifiedasmanagedforestfollowingthe2006IPCCGuidelines definitions. This is because anthropogenic activities, such as extraction of wood and nonwood forest products,aretakingplaceinalmostalltheforestsofJamaica.About114,300haofthisareahasbeen designated as Forest Reserves and other protected areas, and therefore is under continuous management as stipulated by the Forest Act, 1996 (Section 8 (1) and the Natural Resources ConservationAuthorityAct,1991. It is of note that areas of forests reported for 2000 and 2005 in the FAO Global Forest Resource Assessment(FRA)willdifferfromthosereportedinthisreporttotheextentthatestimatesoftheforest coverintheMixedcategoryareincludedinthisreportbutwerenotcalculatedintheFRAreport.The reasonstheseareasareincludedinthisreportisthattheyrepresentasignificantamountofcarbonand an assessment of the mean volume per hectare for these areas was calculated and reported in the NationalForestInventoryReport2003.Thismadeitpossibletocalculatethebiomassfortheseareas. ThereasonstheseareaswerenotreportedintheFRA2005reportaredocumentedinthatreport. Table2.43showsthebasedatathatwereusedinthisinventory.Theareaforthereportingyears2000 and2005wasestimatedusinglinearextrapolationofthe1989and1998data.
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Table2.43:LandUseClassesAreas(ha)convertedtoGHGClasses16
Itwasstatedthataspatiallyexplicitlanduseconversionmatrixfor198998wasreportedinEvelynand Camirand,2003.ThismatrixisreproducedinTable2.44below.Itshouldbenotedthatseveralofthe forestlanduseclassesaredegradedtoalowerclass.Forexample,369hafromClosedbroadleafforest (194m3/ha) was degraded to Disturbed broadleaf forest (165m3/ha) and 2018ha from Disturbed broadleaf forest was degraded to Disturbed broadleaf forest and Noforest (94m3/ha). However, it is difficulttoaccuratelyaccountforthislossbecause,aswasstatedabove,netannualincrements(m3ha1 yr1)forthesecountryspecificvegetationtypesarenotavailable.Anattemptismadetodocumentthis lossinTable2.44.
16
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Table2.44:Landuse/coverconversionmatrixforJamaica,19899817 From GHG Class Forest PF SF WL SL SW MG PP To PF Forest Land
Land use/cover 1989 (Ha) Total Net Mixed Non-forest Gain (ha) Loss/Gain BB BC BF BS CS SC BA BE BR FC HW PC WA SI 106 62 6 227 1 40 0 571 6 227 0 41 0 188 299 569 1370 2542 2574 353 3729 67 3493 0 126 47 0 16202 -486 -2531 -127 20 -111 -21 -669 188 -773 376 1370 -931 -882 352 3729 67 1304 0 -805 -70 0 0
SF WL Forest SL SW MG PP BB BC Land BF Mixed use/cover BS 1998 CS SC BA BE BR Non- FC Forest HW PC WA SI
Forest Land Forest Land Forest Land Forest Land Forest Land Forest Land Grassland 75% Grassland, 25% OtherLand 75% Grassland, 25% Forest Land 75% Other Land, 25% Forest Land 75% OtherLand, 25% Forest Land 75% Forest Land, 25% OtherLand Settlement Land Other Land Other Land Grass Land Wetland Crop Land Wetland Other Land
396
3 241 229 359 90 2018 16 172 28 31 67 109 111 385
139 193 156 378 27
46 90 230 911 1301 357 76 1725 250 979 947 123 47
30 101 29 1754 657
60 8
85 105
167
62
89
372
Total loss (ha) 486 3102 133 207 111
62 669
0 1072 193
0 3473 3456
0 2189
0 931 117
17
ModifiedfromEvelynandCamirand(2003)
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Table 2.45 summarizes the annual losses and gains by land use class and Table 2.46 shows a derived conversionmatrixbyGHGclassesfromthematrixinTable2.44. Figures in column 4 of Table 2.45 arederived from the Losses in Table 2.44. For example, for PF, the totallossforthatClassinTable2.44isdividedby9(486ha/9years=54ha)andforSF,thetotalisalso dividedby9(3102ha/9years=344.7ha).Figuresincolumn5arederivedfromtheGainsinTable2.44. Forexample,forSF,75%ofthefigureforCS(since25%isalreadyforest)isaddedtothefigureforFC ((106x0.75)+62)/9=15.8ha.Forthetransfersincolumn6,thefiguresarealsoderivedfromtheGains (transfers)inTable2.44.Forexample,forSF,thefiguresfromtheforesttypesPF,PPand25%ofCSare addedtogether(396+7+(106x0.25))/9=47.8ha. Table2.45:Annuallanduseloss,transferandgain
Figures in Table 2.46 are derived from column 5 in Table 2.45 which, as was stated above, is derived fromtheGainsfromotherlanduseinTable2.44.Forexample,thefigureforCropLandtoForestLand (25.2ha)isthefigureofPCtoSL(227ha)inTable2.44dividedby9years,whichisalsothefigureforSL incolumn5inTable2.45.
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Table2.46:MatrixshowingannuallanduseconversionbyGHGClass TO/FROM FOREST CROP GRASS WET SETTLEMENT OTHER TOTAL LAND LAND LAND LAND LANDS ForestLand 25.2 26.6 7.5 0.03 33.1 92.43 CropLand 13.7 0.3 14.0 GrassLand 205.8 73.0 123.4 402.2 WetLand 5.2 5.2 Settlements 26.6 5.5 7.1 39.2 OtherLands 346.8 223.7 5.3 0.10 575.9 Total 579.2 103.4 269.5 13.1 0.13 163.6 1128.93 Table2.47summarizesthelanduseareasaccordingtotheIPCCInventoryclasses.Figuresarederived from Tables 2.43 and 2.45. For example, for Forest Land remaining Forest Lands in 1999, the figure (502489ha)isderivedasfollows:(337223+124466+41410)(436.3+73.5+7.0)(46.1+28.9+17.4).Forthe areaconvertedtoforest(92),thisfigureisderivedfromTable2.45(46.1+28.9+17.4).Thesefigureswere calculatedinaspreadsheetandroundedthereforethedecimalsmaydiffer. Table2.47:SummaryoflanduseareasaccordingtoIPCCInventoryClasses(200005)
TheIPCC2006GuidelinesadvisethatthedefaultlimittoaccountforLandsConvertedtoForestLandis 20years.Landsbeingconvertedtoforestslandsince1989werereportedinEvelynandCamirand(2003) andtheForestryDepartmenthasobservedthistrendinotherareasofthecountrysincethen(see,for example,WRC,2007).Hillsidefarmsarebeingabandonedastheoldergenerationoffarmersdecreases andthecurrentgenerationofsmallfarmersshowsnointerestincontinuingtofarmtheselands.Tables 2.46and2.47project92.0hahasbeingconvertedtoforestslandsannually. Forthe5yearperiod,(20002005)theseareasareintheearlysuccessionstagesofforestdevelopment and donotfittheIPCC Guidelines. Whether theseareaswillbeallowed to gothrough thesuccession stages and become well stocked forests is to be seen. These lands are considered fallow (CropLand: annuals)butwereplacedintheGrassLandcategoryofCS(seeTable2.48;NonForestlandUse&
Table2.48:Summaryoftotalannuallanduseareasfromcountryspecificdata Code NationalData GHG Inventory Area(ha) Area(ha) Classes BaseYears EstimationsBasedonExtrapolation 1989 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Forestslanduse PF Closedbroadleaf ForestLand 88717 88231 88177 88123 88069 88015 87961 SF Distributed ForestLand 177254 174725 174428 174131 173834 173537 173240 broadleaf WL Tallopendry ForestLand 42125 41998 41983 41968 41954 41939 41924 SL Shortopendry ForestLand 12083 12104 12081 12058 12035 12012 11989 SW Swamp ForestLand 2358 2247 2235 2222 2210 2198 2185 MG Mangrove ForestLand 9751 9731 9724 9717 9711 9704 9697 PP Pineplantation ForestLand 4956 4287 4213 4138 4064 3989 3915 HP Other Species ForestLand 3900 3900 3900 3900 3900 3900 3900 Plantation SUBTOTAL 341144 337223 336741 336258 335776 335294 334811
2004 87907 172943 41909 11966 2173 9690 3841 3900 334329
2005 87853 172646 41894 11943 2161 9683 3766 3900 333847
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Table2.48:Summaryoftotalannuallanduseareasfromcountryspecificdata(continued) MixedLandUse SC Disturbed 75%ForestLand 125129 124466 124363 124261 124158 Broadleaf Forest & NonForest land 25%Otherland 41710 41489 41464 41439 41415 Use CS NonForest land 75% 76% 94283 94414 94449 94483 94518 Use& Otherland 24% Grassland Disturbed 25%ForestLand 29773 29815 29906 29997 30087 BroadleafForest SUBTOTAL 332246 331593 331567 331541 331515 NonForestlanduse NonForest land 20%Cropland 84605 85520 85431 85341 85252 Use 64%Grassland 270736 273664 273809 273954 274099 3%Wetlands 12691 12828 12820 12812 12804 12%Settlements 50763 51312 51351 51390 51429 1%Otherland 4230 4276 4698 5120 5541 SUBTOTAL 423025 427600 428108 428617 429125 TOTAL 1096416 1096416 1096416 1096416 1096416
124056
123953
123851
123748
41390 94645
41366 94771
41341 94898
41317 95025
30086 331489 85162 274244 12797 51468 5963 429634 1096416
30084 331463 85073 274389 12789 51507 6385 430142 1096416
30083 331436 84984 274533 12781 51546 6807 430651 1096416
30081 331410 84894 274678 12773 51585 7229 431159 1096416
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Table2.49:Area(%)ofJamaicabyLandUse,HoldridgeLifeZone18andGHGecologicalclasses
Are a (%) of Jamai ca by l and use cl ass and Hol dri dge l i fe (e coli gi cal) z one C ode 1 Nati onal class 2 GHG Inve ntory C l asse s TVDF 3 4 5 0.00 0.08 1.33 0.71 0.06 0.65 0.00 0.00 2.83 Fore sts l and use PF Closed broadleaf SF WL SL SW MG PP HP T all open dry Short open dry Swamp Mangrove Pine plantat ion Ot her Species Plantat ion TRO PIC AL TDF 6 0.25 6.61 2.22 0.40 0.14 0.21 0.00 0.00 9.83 TMF 7 0.99 3.42 0.08 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.10 4.64 TW F 8 0.01 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.08 PREMO NTANE PMF 9 1.93 3.49 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.14 5.76 PW F 10 2.91 2.13 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.08 5.45 PRF 11 1.66 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.02 1.87 LO W ER MO NTANE LW F 12 0.22 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.23 LRF 13 0.07 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.07 14 8.04 15.94 3.84 1.11 0.21 0.88 0.39 0.35 30.76 15 3.21 2.18 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.33 0.09 5.83 16 0.99 3.42 0.08 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.10 4.64 17 0.25 6.69 3.55 1.11 0.20 0.86 0.00 0.00 12.66 18 3.59 3.65 0.19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.04 0.16 7.63 19 8.04 15.94 3.84 1.11 0.21 0.88 0.39 0.35 30.76 GRAND TO TAL Are a (%) GHG Inve ntory C l asse s sub-cate gori e s Tropi cal Tropi cal moi st rain fore st de ciduous fore st Tropi cal dry fore st Tropi cal mountain syste ms TO TAL
Forest Land Forest Land Forest Land Forest Land Forest Land Forest Land Forest Land SUB-TO TAL
Disturbed broadleaf Forest Land
Mi xe d Land Use Disturbed 75% Forest Land Broadleaf Forest & Non-Forest land 25% Ot herland Use Non-Forest land Ot herland 75% Use & Grassland Disturbed 25% Forest Land Broadleaf Forest SUB-TO TAL 20% Cropland 64% Grassland Non-Forest land 3% Wet lands use 12% Set t lement s 1% Ot herland SUB-TO TAL TO TAL 0.04 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.01 0.09 0.57 1.81 0.08 0.34 0.03 2.83 5.8 4.40 1.47 2.84 0.90 1.25 10.85 3.66 11.72 0.55 2.20 0.18 18.31 39.0 1.88 0.63 2.06 0.65 0.91 6.13 1.00 3.21 0.15 0.60 0.05 5.02 15.8 0.05 0.02 0.39 0.12 0.17 0.76 0.03 0.10 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.16 1.0 4.00 1.33 2.35 0.74 1.03 9.46 1.85 5.93 0.28 1.11 0.09 9.27 24.5 0.90 0.30 0.71 0.22 0.31 2.44 0.67 2.16 0.10 0.40 0.03 3.37 11.3 0.09 0.03 0.23 0.07 0.10 0.53 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 2.4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.2 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.1 11.36 3.79 8.62 2.72 3.78 30.26 7.80 24.95 1.17 4.68 0.39 38.99 100.0 0.95 0.32 1.10 0.35 0.48 3.20 0.71 2.26 0.11 0.42 0.04 3.53 12.6 1.88 0.63 2.06 0.65 0.91 6.13 1.00 3.21 0.15 0.60 0.05 5.02 15.8 4.43 1.48 2.87 0.91 1.26 10.94 4.23 13.53 0.63 2.54 0.21 21.14 44.7 4.09 1.36 2.59 0.82 1.14 9.99 1.86 5.95 0.28 1.12 0.09 9.30 26.9 11.36 3.79 8.62 2.72 3.78 30.26 7.80 24.95 1.17 4.68 0.39 38.99 100.0
SC
CS
Non-Fore st l and use
TVDF - T ropical life zone (T > 24 oC) Very dry forest (R = 50-100 cm) TMF - T ropical life zone (T > 24 oC) Moist forest (R = 200-400 cm) PMF - Premont ane life zone (T = 24-18 oC) Moist forest (R = 100-200 cm) PRF - Premontane life zone (T = 24-18 oC) Rain forest (R = 400-800 cm) LRF - Lower montane life zone (T < 18 oC) Rain forest (R = 400-800 cm) T ropical rain forest = TW F+PW F+ LW F+LRF T ropical moist deciduous forest = TMF
TDF - T ropical life zone (T > 24 oC) Dry forest (R = 100-200 cm) TW F - T ropical life zone (T > 24 oC) Wet forest (R = 400-800 cm) PW F - Premont ane life zone (T = 24-18 oC) Wet forest (R = 200-400 cm) LW F - Lower montane life zone (T < 18 oC) Wet forest (R = 200-400 cm) T = Mean bio-t emperature; R = Mean annual rainfall. T ropical dry forest = TVDF+TDF T ropical mount ain syst ems = PMF+PRF
18
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DisturbedBroadleafForest)sinceitwasmoreapplicableatthistime.Itcouldbearguedthatsincesome oftheseareaswereoriginallyagriculture,theymaygobackintoagriculture.However,thecurrenttrend suggeststhattheywillbelefttobecomeForestLandinthefuture.Therewillbenocarbonaccounting fortheselandsinthisreportsincethevegetationageiswellbelow20years. CountryspecificlanduseareasarereportedbyHoldridgeLifeZonesinCamirandandEvelyn2004.These zonesareconvertedtoGHGinventoryecologicalzonesandshownasapercentageoftherelevantland usetheyaffectinTable2.49. Table 2.50 summarizes the annual removals. Figures for the removals from public lands are well documented in the Forestry Departments records. The figures for private lands are unknown. An assumptionisthereforemadethattheremovalsfromprivatelyownedlandsareaccordingtotheratio ofpubliclyownedlandstoprivatelyownlandsinJamaica.Itwillbenotedthattheremovalsfor2005are significantly higher than the previous year. This is due to salvaging operations from Hurricane Ivan in September2004.Noreliableassessmentwasavailableofthetotalareaofforestthatwaslostfromthis event. ThefigureforannualfuelwooduseinJamaicaisunknown.EstimatesarethereforeusedfromFAOSTAT andareshowninTable2.50.TheJamaicanForestryDepartmentdoesnotconsidertheseestimatesas being reliable, however. FAO estimates these quantities using a statistical model which relates wood fuel andcharcoalconsumption to severalvariablessuchaspopulationincome anddistribution, forest coverandlandarea(FAO,2005). If these estimates are related to area, it is evident that the figures are grossly overestimated. For example,dividingthevolumefortheyear2000bythemeanvolumeperhectare(105m3/ha)forallthe foresttypesexcepttheplantationsgiveninTable2.49aboveyieldsanareaof5,702hectaresclearedfor fuel wood in the year 2000. This more than 17 times the annual rate of deforestation estimated by Evelyn and Camirand (2003). It could be argued that some of this volume is coming from the degradationforyamsticksthatistakingplaceintheJamaicanforest,whichisunquantified,butnothing ofthismagnitudehasbeenobserved. Forthecalculationsoffuelwoodremoval,theFAOfigureswillthereforebedividedby17andfurther reducedbyonehalfwhichmakestheestimatedaverageannualareaof landharvestedforfuelwood (includingyamsticks)approximately162ha(1520000m3)orabouthalftheestimatedareadeforested in1998(EvelynandCamirand,2003).ThisisacceptabletotheForestryDepartmentatthistimeuntila properstudyisdone. Table2.51estimatestheannualtotallossesfromremovalssuchaslogging,fuelwoodextractionsand minordisturbances(suchassmallfires).ThisTableisderivedfromthelandusechangesdocumentedin Table 2.44. It does not contain the disturbances caused by hurricane Ivan in 2004 however. This was estimatedandthenaddedforthecarbonlosscalculations.
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Table2.50:Summaryofannualremovals(200005)
Wood Removal - on Forest Reserves & Public Lands (m 3) Year 2000 Species Public Private Species Public Private Species Adjusted 17609
Area (Ha) 2005 Volume (m/ha) 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
2001
2002 2003 2004 Carib pine plantations 301.1 35.1 336.2 290.7 516.8 807.5 23.7 121.1
Carib pine 1.13 0.13 1.26 2.35 4.18 6.53 1.43 0.17 1.60 1.94 3.45 5.40 2.52 0.29 2.81 1.97 3.50 5.46 1.70 0.20 1.90 8.69 1.01 9.71 1.00 1.00 2.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 235.8 119
134.6 15.7
171.3 20.0 191.3 287.1 510.4 797.5
203.4 1038.3 2021.8 119 227.1 1159.4 2257.6 210.3 1619.3 373.8 2878.8 584.1 4498.1 182.0 148 323.6 148 505.6
Sub-total 150.2 347.6 617.9
Hardwoods - natural forest & plantation
Hardwoods 1.42 10.95 2.53 19.47 3.95 30.43
Sub-total 965.5
Fuelwood*- public and private 584228 577119 570096 563159 17183 16974 16768 16564 105 5702.0 5632.6 5564.1 5496.4 5429.5 5363.4 167.71 165.67 163.65 161.66 159.69 157.75
FAOSTAT 598710 591425 17395
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Table2.51:Summaryofannualremovals
Land use Class Annual total Loss from Disturbance Loss to Degraded to other land use other forest type Area Area Vol Vol (m 3 ) (ha) (ha) (m 3 ) 3 4 5 6 2.5 485.0 51.5 2026.0 153.4 25315.1 14.0 533.0 22.9 12.3 6.9 58.1 755.7 2226.3 545.1 8602.5 16.3 783.4 236.0 14218.1 0.8 -21.7 Total Loss Area (ha) 7 54.0 389.4 14.8 22.9 12.3 6.9 74.4 0.0 304.5 17005.8 61.5 1721.7 574.7 288.0 Vol (m 3 ) 8 2511.0 39533.3 511.3 755.7 2226.3 545.1 9385.9 0.0 55468.5 23010.4 Annual loss to other land use by GHG Inventory Classes sub-categories Tropical rain Tropical moist forest deciduous forest Area Area Vol (m 3 ) Vol (m 3 ) (ha) (ha) 9 10 11 12 1.0 21.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 49.2 0.0 1002.5 5406.7 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 7941.9 0.0 0.3 32.9 0.3 0.0 0.6 0.2 3.0 0.0 37.2 37.5 309.2 8482.0 10.7 0.0 106.0 12.4 481.3 0.0 9401.6 3814.8 Tropical dry forest Area Vol (m 3 ) (ha) 13 14 0.1 78.1 64.4 16592.1 13.0 472.6 22.9 11.7 6.7 0.0 0.0 755.7 2120.3 532.7 0.0 0.0 Tropical mountain Area Vol (ha) (m 3 ) 15 16 1.1 1121.2 35.1 9052.5 0.7 25.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 962.7 0.0 TO TAL Area (ha) 17 2.5 Vol (m 3 ) 18 2511.0
National Class 1 PF SF WL Forest SL SW
GHG Classes 2 Forest Land Forest Land Forest Land Forest Land Forest Land
153.4 39533.3 14.0 511.3 22.9 12.3 6.9 58.1 0.0 755.7 2226.3 545.1 9385.9 0.0
MG Forest Land PP Forest Land HP Forest Land Sub-total 75% Forest Land 25% Otherland 75% Otherland Grassland Forest Land 25% Sub-total 20% Cropland 64% Grassland NonMixed 3% Wetlands Forest 12% Settlements 1% Otherland Sub-total GRAND TO TAL
0.0 0.0 270.2 38462.7 226.5 21288.7
SC Mixed CS
71.2 14353.8 19.0 1930.2
118.8 20551.5 88.4 8982.3
42.9 11161.6 81.5 8283.1
270.2 55468.5 226.5 23010.4
82.6 5450.0 309.1 26738.6
36.0 97.5
-570.0 1151.8
118.5 406.5
4880.0 27890.4
10.5 29.5
622.9 2553.1
19.8 57.3
1168.4 4983.2
27.5
1623.4
24.8 1465.3 106.3 9748.4
82.6
4880.0
115.9 10605.7
309.1 27890.4
0.0
0.0
579.2 65201.3
0.0 0.0 402.0 18157.6
0.0 981.2
0.0 83358.9
0.0 0.0 100.8 16906.9
0.0 0.0 94.6 14384.8
0.0 0.0 234.7 31157.2
0.0 0.0 149.2 20910.0
0.0 0.0 579.2 83358.9
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National estimates of volume and biomass between 1989 and 2005 have been reported in several publications since the year 2000 (Forest Department, 2001b; Camirand and Evelyn, 2004; FRA, 2005). Calculationsoftotalabovegroundbiomass(overstoreylivingbiomass,notincludingroots,litter,dead woodandunderstorey)perhectareweredonefollowingthemethodologyproposedbyBrown(1997). Table2.52belowshowstheestimatesfor1998. Table2.52:Totalvolumeandabovegroundlivingbiomassbyforesttype19
C ode 1 PF SF WL SL SW MG PP HP Nati on al cl as s 2 Closed broadleaf Dist urbed broadleaf T all open dry Short open dry Swamp Mangrove P ine plant at ion Ot her Species P lant at ion GHG In ve n tory C l as se s 3 Forest Land Forest Land Forest Land Forest Land Forest Land Forest Land Forest Land Forest Land S UB-TO TAL Mi xe d Lan d Us e Dist urbed Broadleaf Forest & Non-Forest land Use 75% Forest Land 25% Ot herland 124466 41489 94414 29815 41410 331593 66 9017 24552 20840 51012 94 15535 30173 Vol u m e 1998 4 88231 174725 41998 12104 2247 9731 4287 3900 337223 (m /h a) 5 194 165 38 23 181 79 119 148 Total Vol u m e (,000 m 3 ) 6 17089 28910 1586 276 407 765 512 577 50121 Total Above grou n d Li vi n g Bi om as s (,000 t) 7 22974 42090 4876 1095 566 1623 339 889 74453
Fore s ts l an d u se
SC
CS
76% Ot herland Non-Forest land 75% Use & 24% Grassland Dist urbed Broadleaf Forest 25% Forest Land S UB-TO TAL
Non -Fore st l an d u se Non-Forest land use 20% Cropland 64% Grassland 3% Wet lands 12% Set t lement s 1% Ot herland S UB-TO TAL TO TAL
427600
427600 1096416 74674
0 125466
Brown does not use average net annual increment (m3 ha1 yr1) for specific vegetation type to estimatebiomassdensityasisrequiredbytheIPCCGuidelines(Brown,1997).Instead,volumeoverbark perhectare(VOB/ha)isused.ThisisconvenientforcountriessuchasJamaicawhichlackdataonmean annual increment (MAI) for non plantation forests. Jamaica is currently establishing a network of PermanentSamplePlots(PSPs)inalltheforesttypessothatMAIforeachforesttypewillbeavailablein thefuture. Jamaicahasafairlygoodsoilsdatabase.ThisisinaGISdatabaseandwaseasilyextractedandformatted to the GHG soil classes with some help from the Rural Physical Planning Unit within the Ministry of
19
Source:Table25inCamirandandEvelyn,(2004).Note:Biomassestimateswereincorrectlycalculatedinsourceandarecorrectedhere
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Agriculture and Land. The soils GIS dataset was intersected with the land use dataset to produce the estimatedareasshowninTable2.53. Table2.53:Area(%)ofJamaicabyIPCCSoilClasses
Area% (ha) of land by Land use and IPCC Soil Classes Land Use Code
National class GHG Inventory Classes Forest Land Forest Land Forest Land Forest Land Forest Land Forest Land Forest Land Forest Land
High Activity Low Activity Clay Clay 7.82 14.92 3.72 1.03 0.05 0.88 0.28 0.27 28.96 10.27 3.42 7.30 2.30 4.21 27.51 5.20 16.65 0.78 3.12 0.26 26.01 82.48 0.22 0.93 0.12 0.09 0.14 0.00 0.11 0.09 1.71 1.06 0.35 0.68 0.21 0.39 2.70 2.49 7.97 0.37 1.49 0.12 12.45 16.85
Sandy soils 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.08 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.12 0.15
Wetland Soil
Grand Total 8.04 15.94 3.84 1.11 0.20 0.89 0.39 0.36 30.76 11.35 3.78 7.98 2.52 4.61 30.24 7.80 24.96 1.17 4.68 0.39 39.00 100.00
Forests land use Closed broadleaf PF Disturbed broadleaf SF WL Tall open dry Short open dry SL Swamp SW MG Mangrove Pine plantation PP HP Mixed SC
Other Species Plantation
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.08 0.27 0.01 0.05 0.00 0.42 0.44
Sub Total
Disturbed Broadleaf 75% Forest Land F & Non-Forest land 25% Otherland Non-Forest land Otherland 75% Use & Grassland Disturbed Broadleaf 25% Forest Land Forest
CS
Sub Total Non-Forest Land Use

20% Cropland Non-Forest land use 64% Grassland 3% Wetlands 12% Settlements 1% Otherland
Sub Total Total
ForestLandRemainingForestLandandLandConvertedtoForestLand For the calculation of estimates for Forest Land Remaining Forest Land (FF) and Land Converted to ForestLand(LF),the2006IPCCGuidelinesforNGHGInventoriesadvisefirstlythat: Thecalculations(should)distinguishbetweentwobroadmanagementpractices:intensive(e.g., plantation forestry with site preparation, planting of selected species and fertilization) and extensive (natural regeneration with minimum human intervention). These categories canalso berefinedaccordingtonationalcircumstances,forexamplebasedonstandorigin(e.g.,natural or artificial regeneration, restocking, promotion of natural regrowth, etc.), climate, species, managementpractice,etc. Asperthe2006IPCCGuidelines,Jamaicastwoforestplantationcategories,CaribbeanPineandOther Species,canbeconsideredintensivelymanaged(e.g.,plantationforestrywithsitepreparation,planting ofselectedspeciesandfertilization),whilealltheotherforestcategoriescanbeconsideredextensively managed,i.e.naturalregenerationwithminimumhumanintervention.
CountryspecificdataformeanannualincrementsarereportedinThompsonetal.(1986)forCaribbean Pine, also an estimate of average annual aboveground biomass growth for one of the IPCC climatic zones, subcategory Tropical mountain system, is documented in Camirand and Evelyn (2004). Therefore,forthecalculationoftheestimatedannualincreaseinbiomasscarbonstocksduetobiomass growthandlossinForestLand,acombinationofbothTier1andTier2methodologieswasused. TheareaandvolumefiguresusedinthesetablesareoutlinedinTables2.54to2.57below.Table2.58 summarizes the data from the Category Tables. The forested areas for each year in Table 2.54 are derivedusingthemethodologyoutlinedinTable2.59.ThevaluesforTable2.55aretakenfromTable 2.50. It is estimated that the extracted timber came from the Tropical rain forest where most of the plantationsarelocated(seeTable2.49). ThedatainTable2.57arederivedfromTables2.50and2.51.Forexample,thevalueforTropicalrain forestnaturalforestfortheyear2000iscalculatedbysubtractingthevaluefortheplantationsfrom the grand total in column 9 (100.849.2 ha). The value for Tropical rain forest pine plantations is calculatedbysubtractingthevaluefortheareaofpineplantationsextracted(1.26ha)in2000whichis showninTable2.50fromthetotalareaofpinelossbydisturbanceinTable2.51,column17(15.1ha). The IPCC 20 year limit on some of the estimates for soils carbon pool, such as the annual change in carbonstocksinmineralsoilsonLandConvertedtoForestLand,alsoexcludetheseestimatesfromthe inventory.Organicsoilsarecharacterizedbytheirhighcarboncompositionofplantmaterial andhigh watertables.OrganicCisusuallyconcentratedinthetop30cmofasoilprofile.InJamaica,onlyabout2 ofthe186soiltypesareclassifiedasorganicwithonlyoneclassifiedasdrained. TheareaofForestLandRemainingForestLandandLandConvertedtoCroplandwasreportedinTable 2.47.Table2.58belowsummarizesthecarbonestimatedforForestLandremainingForestLandonly. Table2.54:Areasusedforthecalculationin3B1a:Annualincreaseincarbonstocksinbiomass
Area of Forest Land Remaining Forest Land Land-use category Area of Forest Land Remaining Forest Land (ha) Initial land use Land use during rep orting y ear Subcategories for rep orting year YEAR 2000 Trop ical rain forest - natural forest Trop ical rain forest - other sp ecies plantations Trop ical rain forest - pine plantations Trop ical moist deciduous forest FL FL Trop ical moist deciduous forestother sp ecies plantations Trop ical moist deciduous forest pine p lantations Trop ical dry forest Trop ical mountain systems Trop ical mountain systems - other species p lantations Trop ical mountain systems - p ine plantations Total 74920 1003 3502 79916 1114 212 200558 138448 1783 424 501880 2001 74846 1003 3439 79822 1114 208 200329 138311 1783 417 501271 2002 74772 1003 3376 79727 1114 205 200099 138174 1783 409 500661 2003 74698 1003 3313 79633 1114 201 199870 138037 1783 402 500052 2004 74624 1003 3250 79539 1114 197 199640 137900 1783 394 499443 2005 74550 1003 3187 79445 1114 193 199411 137763 1783 386 498834
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Table2.45:Volumesusedforthecalculationin3B1a:Lossofcarbonfromwoodremovals
Forest Land Remaining Forest Land: Loss from wood removals (logging) Land-use category Land use during Initial land use reporting year Subcategories for reporting year 2000 Tropical rain forest - other species plantations Tropical rain forest - pine plantations Total 966 150 1116 2001 798 191 989 2002 808 336 1144 Annual wood removal (m3 yr-1) YEAR 2003 584 227 811 2004 4498 1159 5657 2005 506 2258 2763
FL
Table2.56:Volumesusedforthecalculationin3B1a:Lossofcarbonfromfuelwoodremovals
Forest Land Remaining Forest Land: Loss from fuelwood removals Land-use category Initial land use Land use during reporting year Subcategories for reporting year Year Annual volume of fuelwood removal as tree parts (m3 yr-1) 2000 2001 FL FL M ixed (Tropical deciduous and dry forest) 2002 2003 2004 2005 13216 13056 12897 12740 12585 12432
ValuesinTable2.56aretakenfromTable2.50. Table2.57:Areasusedforthecalculationin3B1a:Lossofcarbonfromdisturbance
Forest Land Remaining Forest Land: Loss from disturbance Land-use category Initial land use Land use during reporting year Subcategories for reporting year 2000 Tropical rain forest - natural forest Tropical rain forest - pine plantations Tropical moist deciduous forest Tropical dry forest Tropical mountain systems Total 51.6 56.9 6.0 149.1 143.3 406.9 2001 51.6 56.5 7.1 150.2 143.3 408.6 2002 51.6 55.3 8.1 151.2 143.3 409.5
Area affected by disturbances (ha y r-1) YEAR 2003 51.6 56.2 9.1 152.2 143.3 412.4 2004 51.6 48.4 10.1 153.2 143.3 406.6 2005 49.6 56.1 11.1 154.2 143.3 414.3
FL
FL
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Table2.58:CarbonaccountingforForestLandRemainingForestLandandLandConvertedtoForest Land
CATEGORY 3B1a: Forest Land Remaining Forest Land Average annual increase in carbon (Gg CO2) Annual decrease in carbon stocks due to biomass loss (wood-removals + fuelwood + disturbancess )(Gg CO2) Annual carbon loss from drained organic soils 3B1b : Land Converted to Forest Land Annual increase in carbon stocks in biomass (includes above- and below-ground biomass) Annual decrease in carbon stocks due to biomass loss (wood-removals + fuelwood + disturbancess ) Annual change in carbon stocks in dead organic matter due to land conversion Annual change in carbon stocks in mineral soils Annual change in carbon stocks in organic soils YEARS 2000 1539.74 14.58 0.00 2001 1537.49 14.27 0.00 2002 1535.25 14.34 0.00 2003 1533.01 14.08 0.00 2004 1530.77 18.26 0.00 2005 1528.53 14.79 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
CroplandRemainingCroplandandLandConvertedtoCropland Onlytheaccountingforcarbonstoredorlossinthebiomassofcroplandsthatcontainperennialwoody vegetation is required by the IPCC 2006 Guidelines. It is assumed that for annual crops, increase in biomassstocksinasingleyearisequaltobiomasslossesfromharvestandmortalityinthatsameyear thusthereisnonetaccumulationofbiomasscarbonstocks. FortheestimationofthecarbonchangesincroplandbiomassinJamaica,theTier1approachwasused. The area of Cropland Remaining Cropland and Land Converted to Cropland is reported in Table 2.47. Tables 2.59 and 2.60 give the estimated areas used. Table 2.61 summarizes the estimated carbon changesforthiscategory. TheareacalculationsinTable2.59arefairlystraightforward.Forexample,foreachyear,thepercentage area of Cropland which is classified as Tropical rain forest in Table 2.49, column 15, is divided by the totalinColumn19andthenmultipliedbytheareaofCropLandremainingCropLandfortheyear2000in Table2.47.ValuesinTable2.60aretakenfromTable2.46andthelandusecategoryisestimatedtobe Tropicaldryforestsincemostofthecroplandfallsintothatcategory.Table2.61summarizesthecarbon estimatesforCropLandremainingCropLand. Table2.59:Areasusedforthecalculationin3B2a:CropLandremainingCropLand
Area of Cropland Remaining Cropland Land-use category Annual area of Cropland with perennial woody biomass (ha) Initial land use Land use during reporting year Subcategories for reporting year YEAR 2000 Tropical rain forest - natural forest CL CL Tropical moist deciduous forest Tropical dry forest Tropical mountain systems Total 7725 10986 46264 20352 85327 2001 7717 10974 46215 20331 85238 2002 7709 10963 46167 20310 85148 2003 7701 10951 46118 20288 85059 2004 7693 10940 46070 20267 84970 2005 7685 10928 46021 20246 84880
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Table2.60:Areasusedforthecalculationin3B2b:LandConvertedtoCropLand
Land Converted to Cropland: Annual change in carbon stocks in biomass Annual area of Land Converted to Cropland Subcategories for reporting year Land use during Initial land use YEAR reporting year 2000 - 2005 Land-use category
Table2.61:CarbonaccountingforCroplandRemainingCroplandandLandconvertedtoCropland
GL WL
CL CL
Tropical dry forest Tropical dry forest
13.7 0.31
GrasslandRemainingGrasslandandLandConvertedtoGrassland TheareaofGrasslandRemainingGrasslandisreportedinTable2.47.Table2.62summarizesthecarbon estimatedfortheseareas. Table2.62:GrasslandRemainingGrassland:Annualchangeincarbonstocksinbiomass,200006 CATEGORY YEARS 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 303a:GrasslandRemainingGrassland Annualchangeincarbonstocksinmineral 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 soils Annualchangeincarbonstocksinorganic 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 soils(GgCO2) 303b:LandconvertedtoGrassland AnnualChangeincarbonstocksinbiomass 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 0.40 (GgCO2) Annualchangeincarbonstocksindead 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 organicmatterduetolandconversion(Gg CO2) Annualchangeincarbonstocksinmineral 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 soils Annualchangeincarbonstocksinorganic 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 soils
WetlandRemainingWetlandandLandConvertedtoWetland The areaofWetlandRemaining Wetlandis reportedinTable2.47. Table2.63summarizesthe carbon estimatedfortheseareas. Table2.63: Carbon accounting for Wetland Remaining Wetland and Land converted to Wetland (200006)
CATEGORY 3B4ai :Wetlands Remaining Wetlands CO2-C emissions from managed peatlands N2O Emissions from peatlands during peat extraction 3B4bii: Land converted to Wetlands CO2 Emissions from Land Converted to Flooded land N2O Emissions from land converted for peat extraction CO2 Emissions from Land Converted to Flooded land YEARS 2000 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2001 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2002 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2003 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2004 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2005 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
0.00 SettlementRemainingSettlementandLandConvertedtoSettlement The area of Settlement Remaining Settlement is reported in Table 2.47. Table 2.64 summarizes the carbonestimatedfortheseareas. Table2.64: CarbonaccountingforSettlementRemainingSettlementand LandconvertedtoSettlement(200006)
OtherLandRemainingOtherLandandLandConvertedtoOtherLand The area of Other Land Remaining Other Land is reported in Table 2.47. Table 2.65 summarizes the carbonestimatedfortheseareas. Table2.65: CarbonaccountingforOtherLandRemainingOtherLandand LandconvertedtoOtherLand(200006)

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EmissionsfromBiomassBurning Biomassburningactivitiesincludeburningoffieldspriortoharvesting,brushandforestfires,clearingof landforagricultureanddruginterdictionactivities.Therearereliabledataontheburningofsugarcane fields(areaburned)whichrangedbetweenabout27,000and38,000hectaresbetween2000and2005. The amountofsugarcaneburnedbeforeharvestingwas assumed tobe90% ofthearea reaped.The area of ganja20 destroyed (assumed to be by burning) was relatively small (between 300 and 500 ha between2000and2005)andwasneglected.Theestimatedemissionsfrombiomassburningfor2000 05areshowninTable2.66. Table2.66:EmissionsfromBiomassBurning(SugarCaneharvesting)(200005) CH4emissions COemissions N2Oemissions NOxemissions Years Areaburnt fromfire fromfire fromfire fromfire (ha) (tonnesCH4) (tonnesN2O) (tonnesCO) (tonnesNOx 2000 32298.3 0.453468 15.45151 0.011757 0.419878 2001 30803.4 0.43248 14.73635 0.011212 0.400444 2002 27522.9 0.38642 13.16696 0.010018 0.357798 2003 27858.6 0.391135 13.32755 0.010141 0.362162 2004 24824.7 0.348539 11.87614 0.00936 0.322721 2005 25175.7 0.353467 12.04405 0.009164 0.327284 Uncertainties,QualityAssuranceandControl Table2.67summarizestheuncertaintyanalysisfortheforestrysubsector.
20
PIOJEconomicandSocialSurveyofJamaicaReports2000to2006.
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Table2.67:Approach1UncertaintyAnalysisfortheForestrysubsector
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2.5.2
Agriculture
ThissectionofthereportdetailstheestimationsofemissionsofCH4,CO2,andN2O,forthefollowing subsectors: 1.CH4emissions Entericfermentationofdomesticlivestock Manuremanagementfromdomesticlivestock Floodedricefields 2.CO2emissions LimeandUreaapplication 3.N2Oemissions Directandindirectemissionsfrommanuremanagement Directandindirectemissionsfrommanagedsoils 2.20.1.1 EntericFermentation(CH4) LivestockemitCH4asaresultofentericfermentationandbothCH4andN2Oemissionsareproduced fromlivestockmanuremanagementsystems.Becauseoftheirlargesize,largepopulationsandthe natureoftheruminantdigestivesystem,cattlecanbeanimportantsourceofCH4emissions. CH4emissionsfromentericfermentationaccountedfor60%oftotalCH4emissionsinJamaicas1994 GHG inventory. The main sources of these emissions aredairy cows, othercattle, and sheep. The methods used to estimate CH4 emissions from livestock required defining important livestock subcategoriesanddeterminingannualpopulations. Recent information was obtained from surveys done in the dairy industry in 2004 (Jennings, et al 2004)andthewholecattleindustryin2005(JenningsandDuffus,2005)Thesedatawereusedalong withinformationobtainedfromtheAgriculturalCensusof1996toestimateandprojectDairyand OtherCattlepopulationdatafrom200005. The small ruminant industry in Jamaica is made up primarily of goats, with only a very small percentage of sheep. The Goat Breeders Association and the Sheep Producers Association have fairly reasonable estimates of the populations of goats and sheep in Jamaica from their very intimate relationship with the producers. Data on annual populations of these categories were obtainedfromtheseassociations. The population of horses in Jamaica over the inventory period was obtained from the Statistical Department, Jamaica Racing Commission, while the population of mules and asses were extrapolatedfromthedatainthe1996AgriculturalCensus. Swinepopulationsweredevelopedfromextrapolationsaroundthepopulationobtainedinthe2003 SurveyofpigfarmersinJamaicawhichwasconductedbytheMinistryofAgriculture.Thissurvey compared and discussed the pig survey done in the agricultural census of 1996 and helped in determiningtheestimatesofthepopulationsfortheotheryears.
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ThelivestockpopulationinformationisgiveninTable2.68.Datawerenotavailabletosupportthe levelofdetailrequiredforanenhancedcharacterizationofthesespecies.Therefore,Tier1emission factorswereusedtoestimateCH4emissionsfromentericfermentation. Table2.68:TotalPopulationoftheMajorLivestockCategoriesinJamaica(200005)
NB:Poultrydatacollectedformanuremanagementpurposes,notentericfermentation
AnnualestimationsofCH4emissionsfromlivestockentericfermentationfortheperiod200005are giveninTable2.69.ThesedataindicateagradualdeclineinCH4emissionfromentericfermentation from 8.17 Gg in 2000 to 7.73 Gg in 2005. This decline is due to a large decline in dairy cows and cattlepopulationsovertheseyears,whichwasonlypartlyoffsetbytheincreaseingoatpopulation. The decline in dairy cows and cattle populations is related to the effects of globalization which forcedlocalmilkproductiontocompetewithcheaperimportedmilkpower. In addition, the threat and scare of mad cow disease and other health concerns have caused a generaldownturnintheprominenceofbeef.Conversely,thegoatpopulationhasincreasedowing to a sustained research effort in the industry, led by CARDI, which has seen the introduction of exoticbreedsfortheenhancementofthegeneticpoolinlocalherds,aswellasimprovedhousing andfeedingusingintroducedforagespeciesandbyproductfeeds.Therewasalsoanincreaseinthe swinepopulationbutthisdidnothaveamarkedeffectonCH4emissions.
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Table2.69:EstimatesofMethaneEmissionsfromEntericFermentationinJamaica(200005)
ManureManagement(CH4) CH4emissionsfrommanuremanagement,althoughsmallerthanthatfromentericfermentation,can be an important source in confined animal management conditions where manure is managed in liquidbasedsystems.InJamaica,althoughmostofthepoultryismanagedinconfinedsystems,the manure is not managed in liquid based systems. Manure is managed by stockpiling i.e., solid storage.Poultrypopulationdatawerefurtherdifferentiatedintobroilerandlayerpopulations.This informationwasobtainedfromtheJamaicaLivestockAssociationannualproductiondata. Estimations of CH4 emissions from animal manure management are also measured from the data giveninTable2.68,butthisisarelativelysmallersourceofCH4emissions,particularlyasmanures arenotnormallystoredunderanaerobicconditionsinJamaica.Therearetwomanagementsystems for manure management in Jamaica dry lot and pasture. The manure management emissions estimates are based on numbers of livestock and the fractions that use the dry lot manure managementsystem.Tier1emissionfactorsandIPCCdefaultfactorswereused. Table 2.70 gives fractions of animals that use the dry lot manure management system and the annual estimates of CH4 emissions from the dry lot manure management (Direct Emissions) for 200005. There was a gradual increase in this source of CH4 emissions, from 0.645 Gg in 2000 to 0.848Ggin2005.Thiswasasaconsequenceofincreasedswineandbroilerpoultryproduction.
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Table2.70: Fractions of Animals Using the Dry Lot Manure Management System (MMS) and EstimatesofDirectMethaneEmissionsfromManureManagementinJamaica(2000 05)
Floodricecultivation(CH4) AnaerobicdecompositionoforganicmaterialinfloodedricefieldsproducesCH4,whichescapesto the atmosphere primarily by transport through the rice plants. CH4 emissions are estimated by multiplyingdailyemissionfactorsbycultivationperiodofriceandannualharvestedareas.Neither floodednoruplandriceisofanymajorimportanceinJamaica. ThedatabankoftheMinistryofAgricultureandLandsrecordsthetotalareasofriceharvestedover the past six years. The mean acreage of rice harvested over 200005 was 11.5 ha, with 18 ha cultivatedin2000andjust1hain2005.UsingtheTier1defaultemissionfactorandrelevantscaling factors,theestimationofCH4emissionfromthisactivityindicatedverynegligiblelevels. LimeandUreaapplication(CO2) Emissions of CO2following the addition of liming materials and ureacontaining fertilizer were estimatedfromthetotalamountsoflimeandureaapplicationmadetosoilinacalendaryear.Most ofthesoilsofJamaicaarelimestonederivedanddonotrequirelimeapplication.Indiscussionswith the staff of the Rural Physical Division of the Ministry of Agriculture, it was estimated that about 10%ofcroplandsreceivedlimestoneapplicationof12tonnes/ha.LydfordMiningCo.suppliesall thelimestoneusedforsoilliminginJamaica.Thiscompanysuppliedthedataonlimestoneusedin agricultureovertheperiod200005.
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Urea application was quite widespread on all crops. The best means of determining the amount usedwasbyobtainingtheannualimportsfromSTATIN. For both estimations of CO2emissions, Tier 1 emission factors were used as no country specific emissionfactorsareavailable.AlsoCO2emissionsfromlimeandureaapplicationarenotconsidered akeycategoryinJamaica.TheestimatesofCO2emissionsfromLimeandUreaapplicationaregiven inTable2.71.Theyindicatenodefinitepatternovertheassessmentperiod. Table2.71: CO2emissions(Gg)FromLimeandUreaApplicationtoAgriculturalSoilsinJamaica (200005)
DirectandIndirectEmissionsfromManureManagement(N2O) Manure management in a defined organized system is virtually nonexistent in Jamaica. Chicken litter, cow and goat manures are cleaned out of the pens and stock piled. A small percentage is collectedforuseincropproductioneitherdirectlyoraftercomposting.N2Oemissionsfrommanure managementarethereforelikelytoberelatedmainlytothatlostthroughstockpiling(solidstorage). TheestimationofN2Osemissionfromlivestockisbasedonthenumberofanimalsineachcategory (Table2.68)andthetypicaldailyexcretionrate. This total excretion is then fractionated intothat which is in an organized management system, that which is stockpiled, put into compost etc and that which is directly applied to pastures by grazing animals. The fraction estimated to be stored manuremanagementsystemsrangefromalowof0.10formulesandassestoamaximumof0.90 forpoultry.Thisestimatewasmadebasedonexpertknowledge. Direct emissions occur by means of nitrification and denitrification of N contained in manure primarilyduringstorage.TheemissionofN2Ofrommanureduringstorageandtreatmentdepends ontheNandCcontentofthemanure,andthedurationofthestorageandtypeoftreatment.The estimation was carried out using a Tier 1 method using N2O emission factors, default N excretion dataanddefaultmanuremanagementsystemdata. TheseestimatesareshowninTable2.72andindicateanincreaseofapproximately45,000kgofN2O emissions from 200005. This increase was due to the increased population of goats, swine and broilerpoultryoverthisperiod,althoughtherewereloweredpopulationsofdairycows,othercattle andlayerpoultryduringtheperiod.
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Table2.72:EstimatesofDirectN2OEmissionsfromManureManagementinJamaica(200005)
Indirectemissionsresultfromvolatilenitrogenlossesthatoccurprimarilyintheformsofammonia andNO3gases.Thefractionofexcretedorganicnitrogenthatismineralizedtoammonianitrogen during manure collection and storage depends primarily on time and, to a lesser degree, temperature.Simpleformsoforganicnitrogensuchasurea(mammals)anduricacid(poultry)are rapidly mineralized to ammonia nitrogen, which is highly volatile and easily diffused into the surroundingair(Asmanetal.,1998;MontenyandErisman,1998).Nitrogenlossesbeginatthepoint ofexcretioninhousesandotheranimalproductionareas(e.g.,milkparlours)andcontinuethrough onsitemanagementinstorageandtreatmentsystems(i.e.,manuremanagementsystems). Indirectemissions were calculatedbasedonthe amountofnitrogenexcretedfrom eachlivestock categoryadefaultfractionforvolatilizednitrogenfromstockpilingandadefaultemissionfactorfor N2Oemissionfromvolatilization.TheannualindirectN2Oemissionsfrommanuremanagementare giveninTable2.73.Thesedataindicateagradualincreaseintheindirectemissionsfrom45,064kg N2Oin2000to57,089kgin2005.Thisincreaseisagainrelatedtotheincreasedpopulationofgoats, swineandbroilerpoultry.
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Table2.73:EstimatesofIndirectN2OEmissions(Gg)fromManureManagementinJamaica(2000 05)
DirectEmissionsfromManagedSoils(N2O) ThedatarequiredfordirectN2Oemissionsfrommanagedsoilsare: FSNannualamountofsyntheticfertilizerNappliedtosoils,kgNy1 FONannualamountofanimalmanure,compost,sewagesludgeandotherorganicN additionsappliedtosoils,kgNy1 FCRannualamountofNincropresidues(abovegroundandbelowground),including Nfixingcrops,andfromforage/pasturerenewal,returnedtosoils,kgNy1 FSOMannualamountofNinmineralsoilsthatismineralized,inassociationwithloss ofsoilCfromsoilorganicmatterasaresultofchangestolanduseormanagement,kgN y1 FOSannualareaofmanaged/drainedorganicsoils,ha FPRP annual amount of urine and dung N deposited by grazing animals on pasture, rangeandpaddock,kgNy TheFSNwasestimatedfromthetotalamountofsyntheticfertilizerconsumedinJamaicaannually. AnnualfertilizerconsumptiondatawerecollectedfromofficialrecordsofNfertilizerimportswhich wereobtainedfromSTATINJamaica. FON refers to the amount of organic N input applied to soils other than by grazing animals. This includesappliedanimalmanure,sewagesludgeappliedtosoil,compostappliedtosoils,aswellas otherorganicamendmentsofimportance.Therearenodataavailableexceptthatgeneratedfrom animalexcretionsoftheamountofmanagedmanurenitrogenavailableforapplicationtomanaged soilsorforfeed,fuel,orconstructionpurposes(NMMS_Avb). Theestimateofmanagedmanurenitrogenavailableforapplicationtomanagedsoilsoravailablefor useinfeed,fuel,orconstructionpurposesisbasedonthefollowingequation: The number of head of livestock species, manure management system, and amount of N from bedding were estimated using expert judgment. The amount of managed manure N for livestock SNCOFJAMAICA 125
wasobtainedfromdefaultvaluesfortotalNlossesfrommanuremanagementsystemspresentedin the2006IPCCGuidelines.Thesedefaultvaluesincludelossesthatoccurfromthepointofexcretion, includinganimalhousinglosses,manurestoragelosses,andlossesfromleachingandrunoffatthe manurestoragesystem. ThereisnodataofonFAMbeingusedforfeed,fuelorconstructioninJamaica;thetotalamountis assumedtohavebeenappliedtothesoil. FCRwasestimatedfromcropyieldstatisticsanddefaultfactorsforabove/belowgroundresidue: yieldratiosandresidueNcontents.TheTier1approachwasused.Thisestimationwasonlyrequired forannualcropsasperennialsdonotrenewannuallyandthereforeleavesubstantialcropresidue everyyear.Theyieldsfromtheannualcropswereseparatedintothefollowingcategories: NonNfixinggraincrops(e.g.,corn,rice). Nfixinggrainsandpulses(e.g.,cowpea,redpeas,peanuts); Rootandtubercrops(e.g.,yam,sweetpotato,cassava);and Foragesincludingperennialgrassesandgrass/legumepastures. Landusechangeandavarietyofmanagementpracticescanhaveasignificantimpactonsoilorganic Cstorage.OrganicCandNareintimatelylinkedinsoilorganicmatter.WheresoilCislostthrough oxidation as a result of landuse or management change, this loss will be accompanied by a simultaneous liberalization of N. C losses from land use changes were estimated by the Forestry Department. FSOM was therefore calculated by multiplying the C losses provided by the Forestry DepartmentbyaC:Nratioof15:1. TheRuralPhysicalPlanningDivisionoftheMoAthatthereweresomemanagedorganicsoils(FOS) inWestmoreland.ThisinformationwassoughtfromRADAbutwasnotrecordedandwasdescribed as being small and negligible. For forest and grasslands, national data were available from the ForestryServices. FPRPwasdeterminedbyanimalcategoryusingexpertjudgment. Direct N2O emissions from agricultural soils accounted for more than 98% of total N2O emissions fromagriculturalactivitiesinthelastinventory.ItisthereforeakeycategoryforN2Oemissionsin Jamaica. There are, however, no documented countryspecific emission factors so emissions were estimatedusingTier1equations,defaultemissionfactors,andexpertknowledgeandopinionson otheractivitydata. EstimatesofdirectN2OemissionsfrommanagedsoilsinJamaica200005aregiveninTable2.74. Thesedataindicateahighemissionofapproximately8.9millionkgNin2001toalowof6.9million kg in 2005. This estimation is correlated with the changes in emissions from crop residues, which wasbyfarthehighestsourceofemissions.
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Table2.74:EstimatesofDirectN2OEmissionsfromManagedSoilsinJamaica(200005)
IndirectEmissionsfromManagedSoils(N2O) InadditiontothedirectemissionsofN2Ofrommanagedsoilsthatoccurthroughadirectpathway (i.e., directly from the soils to which N is applied), emissions of N2O also take place through two indirect pathways. The first of these pathways is the volatilization of N as NH3 and oxides of N (NOx), and the deposition of these gases and their products NH4+ and NO3 onto soils and the surfaceoflakesandotherwaters.ThesourcesofNasNH3andNOxarenotconfinedtoagricultural fertilizersandmanures,butalsoincludefossilfuelcombustion,biomassburning,andprocessesin the chemical industry. Thus, these processes cause N2O emissions in an exactly analogous way to thoseresultingfromdepositionofagriculturallyderivedNH3andNOx,followingtheapplicationof syntheticandorganicNfertilizersand/orurineanddungdepositionfromgrazinganimals. ThesecondpathwayistheleachingandrunofffromlandofNfromsyntheticandorganicfertilizer additions, crop residues, liberalization of N associated with loss of soil C in mineral and drained/managed organic soils through landuse change or management practices, and urine and dungdepositionfromgrazinganimals.SomeoftheinorganicNinoronthesoil,mainlyintheNO3 form, may bypass biological retention mechanisms in the soil/vegetation system by transport in overlandwaterflow(runoff)and/orflowthroughsoilmacroporesorpipedrains. WhereNO3ispresentinthesoilinexcessofbiologicaldemand,e.g.,undercattleurinepatches, theexcessleachesthroughthesoilprofile.Thenitrificationanddenitrificationprocessestransform some of the NH4+ and NO3 to N2O. This may take place in the groundwater below the land to which the N was applied, or in riparian zones receiving drain or runoff water, or in the ditches, streams, rivers and estuaries (and their sediments) into which the land drainage water eventually flows.
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This estimation was concerned with the following N sources of indirect N2O emissions from managedsoilsarisingfromagriculturalinputsofN: SyntheticNfertilizers(FSN); Organic N applied as fertilizer (e.g., applied animal manure, compost, sewage sludge, renderingwasteandotherorganicamendments)(FON); UrineanddungNdepositedonpasture,rangeandpaddockbygrazinganimals(FPRP); N in crop residues (above and belowground), including Nfixing crops and forage/pasturerenewalreturnedtosoils(FCR);and Nliberalizationassociatedwithlossofsoilorganicmatterresultingfromchangeofland useormanagementonmineralsoils(FSOM). The fraction of the N sources, above, which are lost through volatilization and leaching were determined by category using expert judgment. Indirect N2O emissions from agricultural soils similarly have available data. Emissions were therefore estimated using the Tier 1 equation with defaultemissionandpartitioningfactors,andotheravailableactivitydata. EstimatesofindirectN2Oemissionsfrom managedsoils inJamaicafor 200005are givenin Table 2.75.Aswouldbeexpected,thisfollowedthesametrendaswithdirectemissions.In2001,there wasthehighestindirectemissionof1.8millionkgN,whilethelowestemissionof1.3millionkgN wasin2005. Table2.75:EstimatesofindirectN2OEmissionsfromManagedSoilsinJamaica(200005)
UncertaintyAnalysis,QualityAssuranceandQualityControl Enteric fermentation: Data obtained for populations of important livestock categories over the inventory period varied widely in uncertainty levels as a result of the varying sources. For enteric fermentation,themoreimportantpopulationsarethoseofdairycows,othercattleandgoats.The dairycowsandothercattledatawereobtainedfromrecentsurveysandtheuncertaintyassociated withthesepopulationsisestimatedat510%.Thegoatpopulationdataarenotrecorded,butwere obtainedfromdiscussionswithmembersoftheGoatBreedingSociety.Thesedataweretherefore more subjective and are assigned an uncertainty of 1015%. The emission factors were all default valuesfromthe2006IPCCGuidelinesandhaveanuncertaintylevelof3050%.
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Manure management: A wider range of livestock categories were involved than for enteric fermentation. The additional animal populations of major importance were swine and poultry. Swine data were obtained from a survey done in 2003 which was described as very reliable. It is therefore considered to have an uncertainty level of 5%. Poultry populations were derived from actual production records and were similarly considered to be very reliable, i.e., 5% uncertainty level. The emission factors were all default values from the 2006 IPCC Guidelines and had an uncertaintyof30%. Urea and limestone applications: Data on urea and limestone applications were obtained from actualimportrecordsandcompanysalesrespectively.Thesearefairlyreliablesourcesthatwould have an uncertainty level of no more than 5%. Tier 1 default emission factors were used in both instances;theuncertaintylevelsfortheseare50%. Manure management: The fractionation of total excretion into that which is in an organized managementsystemandthatwhichisdirectlyappliedtopasturebygrazinganimalswasdoneby expertjudgment.Thiswashighlysubjectiveandhadanuncertaintylevelof2030%. The estimates were carried out using the Tier 1 method and default N excretion data, default manure management system data, default fractions for volatilization and emission factor for N2O emissionfromvolatilization.Theuncertaintylevelsforthesedefaultvaluesare: DefaultNexcretiondataUncertaintylevel50% DefaultmanuremanagementemissionfactorUncertaintyfactorof2 EmissionfactorfordirectN2OemissionUncertaintyfactorof2 DefaultfractionsforvolatilizationUncertaintyfactorof2 EmissionfactorforN2Oemissionfromvolatilization Uncertaintyrange0.0020.05 DirectandindirectemissionsofN2O:Thedatafortheestimationofdirectandindirectemissionsare quitevariedintheiruncertaintylevels.Thisismainlybecausethesourceofdatavariedinreliability exceptforthatrelatedtosyntheticfertilizerapplication,whichwasdeterminedfromSTATINimport records.Manyoftheotherdatadependedonexpertjudgment. In addition the fractionation and emission factors were default values taken from the 2006 IPCC Guidelines.TheuncertaintylevelsforalltheparametersusedaregivenbelowinTable2.76.
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Table2.76: UncertaintyLevelsforParametersUsedIntheDirectandIndirectEmissionsofN2O fromManagedSoilsinJamaica
2.6 WASTESECTORGHGEMISSIONS Thewastesectorcomprises: a) Domesticandindustrialwastewater b) Solidwastedisposalfacilities c) Openburning d) Incineration(industrialandmedical) e) Biologicaltreatmentofsolidwaste The 2006 IPCC Guidelines were used to calculate the GHG emissions which include CO2, CH4, and N2O.
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MethaneEmissionsfromDomesticWastewater The Tier 2 methodology was used to calculate the CH4 emissions from domestic wastewater treatment plants in Jamaica. Although the default emission factor was utilized, country specific activitydatawereusedtocalculatetheaverageBOD5ingpercapitaperyear. Populationdatafor200005wereobtainedfromSTATIN.Tocalculatethefractionofthepopulation inhighurban,lowurbanandruralincomegroups(Table2.77),populationdatawereobtainedfrom STATINfor2001(PopulationCensus2001Housing,Volume4PartA).Thisdocumentalsoprovided datafor: Total dwellings in highurban (Kingston, St. Andrew and St James), lowurban (other towns)andruralareas Averagenumberofpersonsperdwelling(3.61persons/dwelling) Thisenabledthepopulationinthehighurban,lowurbanandruralincomeareastobecalculated (Totaldwellingsxaveragepersonsperdwelling=population). Table2.77:PopulationData(2001) TotalDwellings Population Population Fraction High urban (Kingston & St Andrew, Montego 192,130 693,589 0.2657 Bay) Lowurban 186,707 674,012 0.2582 Rural 344,203 1,242,573 0.4760 Total 723,040 2,610,174 1.00
Source:STATIN
TheaverageannualBiochemicalOxygenDemand(BOD5)datafordomestic/commercialwastewater for 200005 obtained from the National Water Commission (NWC) and NEPA for 24 wastewater treatmentplantswerenotcomplete.The2001dataonthecapacityofthewastewatertreatment plants were obtained from the NWC website. However, data on the average population being servedbythewastewatertreatmentplantswerenotprovidedforsix(Claremont,CornwallCourts HS,EastProspectWWTP,EbonyVale,ElthamPark,CollegeGreen)outof16plants.Sparsedatafor the BOD [mg/l] were available to calculate an average BOD loading rate [g/yr] and average BOD5 [g/capita/day]. There was no plant where BOD results were available for every year and even for plantswithresults;onlyafewvalueswereavailable.Inthosecaseswherethereweretwoormore resultsavailableforthesameyear,anaverageBOD[mg/l]wasestimated. IncalculatingthetotalaverageannualBOD5[g/capita/day]for200005,BOD5valuesofmorethan 100mg/landlessthan0.1mg/lwerenottakenintoconsiderationastheyweretoodifferentfrom thevaluesobtainedfortheotherplantsanddeemedoutliers.Theplantsthatwereexcludedwere Boone Hall, with an average BOD5 of 0.09 mg/l, and Barbican Mews, with an average BOD5 of 491.48mg/L. ThetotalaverageannualBOD5wascalculatedtobe9.73g/capita/day.
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NeithertheNEPAnortheNationalWaterCommissionLabwasabletoprovideanydataonsludge removal. It was assumed that no sludge was removed, so a value of zero (0) was used for the fractionofDegradableOrganicComponentremovedassludge. The sewage treatment facilities for Jamaica are predominantly aerobic systems. The data on the performanceofthesystems(degreeofutilization(Tij)inhighurban,lowurbanandruralareas)for 2002wasobtainedfromPIOJandSTATIN(JamaicaSurveyofLivingConditions2002,TableF3).The same data were used for all years 2000 to 2005. Default Methane Correction Factors (MCF) was used.WastewatertreatmentplantsinJamaicafallintotwomaincategoriesforwhichdefaultMCF valueswereprovided: 0.1foruntreatedsystemswithhighorganicloadingsor 0.3fortreated,notwellmanagedsystems. Therefore, an average default MCF value of 0.2 was estimated. The default value of 0.6 kgCH4/kgBODwasusedfortheMaximummethaneproducingcapacity(B0).Theemissionfactorfor domesticwastewaterwascalculatedtobe0.12kgCH4/kgBOD(MCFxdefaultvalueB0)for200005. Therewerenovaluesforsludgeproduction,sotheemissionfactorfordomesticsludgeiszeroforall theyears.TheestimatedmethaneemissionsfordomesticwastewaterareinTable2.78. Table2.78: Estimated Methane Emissions from Domestic Wastewater Treatment Facilities in Jamaica(200005)
MethaneEmissionsfromIndustrialWastewater The Tier 2 methodology was used to calculate the CH4 emissions from industrial wastewater treatment plants in Jamaica. Default wastewater generation and corresponding chemical oxygen demand(COD)valuesforeachindustrywereused,exceptforsugarrefiningwherethewastewater generation value was calculated from industry data. Country specific activity data on production wereusedtocalculatetheTotalOrganically DegradableMaterialinWastewaterforeachindustry (TOW)inkgCOD/year. The total organically degradable material in wastewater (TOW) for the different industrial sectors wascalculatedusingthe2006IPCCGuidelinesmethodology.Dataforthetotalindustrialproduct(P) for industrial sectors for 200005 were obtained from PIAJ (Economic and Social Survey Jamaica, 2004and2006). BasedonthesparsedataprovidedbytheNEPA(Table2.79),itwasnotpossibletodeterminethe amountofwastewater(W)generatedandtheCODforthedifferenttypesofindustriesexceptinthe caseofthesugarindustry.Defaultvaluesfromthe2006IPCCGuidelinesandtheIPCCGoodPractice SNCOFJAMAICA 132
Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (GPGAUM) were usedinsteadformostindustries.Howeversinceactualdataforwastewatergeneratedpertonneof productionwasavailableforthesugarindustryamajorindustrywhichgenerateslargequantities of industrial wastewater this value was calculated using the 2003 sugar production of 16,798 tonnesfromBernardLodgeandthe2003quantityofwastewatergeneratedwhichwas560,000m3. The production data was obtained from the Sugar Industry Institute 2005 Annual Report and the quantityofwastewatergeneratedbyBernardLodgein2003wasobtainedfromthedatacollected for the Kingston Harbour Study21 conducted in October 2004. The value calculated of 33m3/t was noticeablyhigherthanthesuggestedrangeof4to18m3/tintheIPCCGPGAUM. There are some important industries such as coffee and cocoa refining that generate significant quantities of wastewater, for which there were no values for wastewater generation (default or actual). Table2.79: AnnualProduction,WastewaterGenerationandCODvaluesforPrimaryIndustries inJamaica(200006)
InstitutionalStrengtheningforEnhancedEnvironmentalManagementofKingstonHarbour,ComponentB, ImprovingTheEnvironmentalPerformanceOfIndustriesDischargingToKingstonHarbour,Preparedforthe NationalEnvironmentandPlanningAgencybyClaudeDavis&Associates

21
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Data on sludge and the amount of methane recovered was unavailable. The total organic sludge fromindustrialsourcesandtheamountofCH4recoveredwerethereforeestimatedtobezero. The industrial wastewater treatment facilities for Jamaica are predominantly aerobic systems. However there is no specific data on the performance of the systems, especially the fraction of wastewatertreated.Thedefaultvalueof0.2fortheMethaneCorrectionFactor(MCF)inthe2006 IPCC Guidelines was used. A default value of 0.25 for the maximum methane producing capacity (B0)wasalsousedfromtheGuidelines.Theemissionfactorforindustrialwastewaterwascalculated tobe0.05kgCH4/kgCOD(MCFxdefaultvalue)for200005. TheestimatedCH4emissionsfromindustrialwastewaterfacilitiesareshowninTable2.80. Table2.80: MethaneEmissionsfromIndustrialWastewaterTreatmentPlantsinJamaica(2000 05)
NitrousOxideEmissionsFromWastewater The 2006 IPCC Guidelines methodology was used. It addresses indirect N2O emissions from wastewatertreatmenteffluentsthataredischargedintoaquaticenvironments.Dataonpercapita protein generated (kg/per person/yr) from the Food and Agriculture Organization website (FAOSTAT) were used, as well as population data from STATIN. The per capita protein generated consists of intake (consumption) multiplied by factors to account for the fraction of nitrogen in protein, additional nonconsumed protein and for industrial protein discharged into the sewer system.Thedefaultvalueusedfordevelopingcountriesfornonconsumedproteinwas1.1andthe defaultvalueusedforthecontributionfromindustrialorcommercialsourceswas1.25assuggested bythe2006IPCCGuidelines. Population data for 200005 was obtained from STATIN. Data on per capita protein available for consumption from 200103 were obtained from the FAOSTAT website. It was assumed that all protein available for consumption was actually consumed. An average value of 24.82 kg/person/yearfor200103wasgivenandthesamevaluewasusedfor2000,2004and2005. Thefollowingdefaultvaluesfromthe2006IPCCGuidelineswereused: fractionofNitrogeninprotein(FNPR)0.16kgN/kgprotein thenonconsumedprotein(FNONCON)addedtowastewater1.1and forindustrialandcommercialcodischargedprotein(FINDCOM)1.25 theemissionfactor(EFEFFLUENT)0.005kgN2ON/kgsewageNproduced.
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TheestimatedN2Oemissionsfromwastewaterfor200005areshowninTable2.81. Table2.81:EstimatedNitrousOxideEmissionsfromWastewaterinJamaica(200005)
BiologicalTreatmentofSolidWaste: Theuseofbiodigesterstoprocesssolidwasteandrecoverenergyforuseisbeingpromotedbythe Scientific Research Council (SRC) (Jamaica) and has become a more significant source of potential CH4emissionsinJamaicasince2000. Biodigestersproducebiogas,analternativefuelsource.Theyareappropriatetechnologiesthattake advantageoftheenergythatisnaturallypresentinanimalwasteandkitchentrash.Asthesewastes break down, whether in the ground, a compost heap, landfill, or biodigester, they release CH4. In contrast to the other waste storage and disposal methods mentioned, a biodigester traps the CH4andstoresitforheating,cooking,orlighting.Inthisway,biodigesterscanprovideasustainable substituteforthepropane,kerosene,andfirewoodthatmanyruralfamiliesindevelopingcountries usetoservetheseneeds. Forthosefamiliesthathavetobuytheirfuel,abiodigestercansavethemsignificantsumsofmoney everyyear.Forthosethatcuttreesdownforfirewood,abiodigesterwillsavethemtimeandhelpto preventthedeforestationthatisbecomingprevalentinplaceswherelargenumbersofpeoplestill gathertheirownfirewood. TheTier1methodologywasusedtodeterminetheCH4emissionsfromanaerobicdigestioninbiogas facilities.Thismeansthatadefaultemissionfactor(onadryweightbasis)wasusedfromthe2006 IPCCGuidelinestogetherwithnationaldataontheamountofCH4generatedfromthesefacilities. The SRC indicated that no CH4generated from biologically treated solid waste was released, so estimatedemissionswerebasedonpercentagelossfromunexpectedeventsorleakagessuggested bythe2006IPCCGuidelines. InformationfromtheScientificResearchCouncilindicatedthatabout75%ofCH4generatedfromall biologically treated solid waste was used and the remainder was burnt off/ flared. However, the 2006 IPCC Guidelines suggests that unintentional leakages during process disturbances and other unexpectedeventsduringanaerobicdigestionoforganicwasteshouldbeaccountedforbyreducing the quantity of CH4generated by the biodigesters by between 010 percent. It was therefore assumedinthiscasethattheleakageswouldbeminimalandavalueof5percentwasused. SNCOFJAMAICA
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DatafortheCH4gasflowrate[m3/day]wasprovidedbytheScientificResearchCouncilforthe2000 05.UsingthedensityofCH4(0.717kg/m3),theCH4emissionswerecalculated.TheestimatedCH4and N2Oemissionsfrombiodigestersfor200005arenegligible,asshowninTable2.82. Table2.82:EstimatedMethaneandNitrousOxideEmissionsfromBiodigestersinJamaica(2000 05)
SolidWasteDisposal TheTier2 methodologywasusedtocalculatetheCH4emissionsfrom solidwastedisposalsitesin Jamaica.Defaultparametersandcountryspecificactivitydataoncurrentandhistoricalsolidwaste disposalwereutilizedintheothercalculations.Sincetherewasnotenoughactivitydataavailable for195089,theCH4emissionswereonlycalculatedfor199005. Population data were obtained from STATIN. Exact values were provided for 200005 (STATIN website), while the population was estimated for 199095 based on data for 1991 and an annual growthrateof 0.86(StatisticalYearBook1999).Populationdata for199699 were obtained from the report on the National Solid Waste Management Programme by Keir Corporation dated June 2000. InformationonJamaica'spercapitagenerationrateforMunicipalSolidWaste(MSW)in1994was estimatedtobe0.75kg/capita/dayandthefractionofmunicipalsolidwastedisposedtosolidwaste disposalsiteswasestimatedtobe67%.Thesedatawereusedfor199099.(Dataobtainedfromthe Norconsult Comprehensive Solid Waste Management Study National Waste Management Plan Volume 1 Summary Report April 1997 and supported by independent calculations based on 1994 populationestimatesandtheestimatedmunicipalsolidwastegenerationrate).Jamaica'spercapita generationrateforMunicipalSolidWaste(MSW)for200005wasestimatedtobe1kg/capita/day and the fraction of MSW disposed to solid waste disposal sites was estimated to be 75%. This is based on information provided by the National Solid Waste Management Authority (NSWMA) for Rivertonin2000. Dataforthequantityofwastedisposedofatdifferentsiteswasonlycompletefor2005.For2000 04,thedatawereincompleteandfor2002notavailable. TheNSWMAprovideddescriptionsofthesolidwastedisposalsitesthatarecurrentlyinoperation. For those that are now closed, reference was made to the GHG Inventory for 199094 for the descriptionofthewastedisposalsites.Atthetimethe1994GHGInventorywasprepared,therewas no information on the disposal site called Myersville. However since it is similar to the nearby SNCOFJAMAICA 136
locatedandsimilarlyoperateddisposalsiteFriendshipthedescriptionwassetasunmanagedand shallow(dataobtainedfromNSWMA). Withthisinformation,thepercentageofwastegoingtothedifferentdisposalsitesandtheMethane CorrectionFactors(MCF)werecalculated.Onlydataforthetotalquantityofwastecollectedwere available.Therefore,thesameMCFwasestimatedfordomesticandindustrialwaste. DataforthewastestreamsandcompositionofdomesticwastewereavailableforRivertonin2000 and2006.Thevaluesfor2000werealsousedfor200103,whilethevaluesfor2006wereusedfor 200405.Thewastestreamsforplastics,metal/tin,glassandhazardouswastewerecombinedinto thefractionplasticsandotherrinertmaterials(NSWMAdata). Dataforthestreamandcompositionofdomesticwastein1996wereobtainedfromJamaicaSWM Study,VolumeII:NationalWasteManagementPlanandthesamevalueswereusedfor199099. DataonindustrialwastegenerationwasobtainedfromtheJune2000reportontheNationalSolid Waste Management Programme by Keir Corporation (Table 2.83). The rate of industrial waste generationwascalculatedusingthequantityofwastegeneratedin1999anddividingitbytheGDP for1999.Thisrateofindustrialwastegenerationwasappliedto199098and200405.GDPdatafor 199005wasavailableinUNStatistics(http://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/selectionbasicFast.asp). TheexchangerateusedtoconvertJ$toUS$wasJ$67:US$1. Table2.83:TotalIndustrialWaste(tonnes/yr)inJamaica(199903)
CH4emissionsfromdomesticandindustrialsolidwastedisposalfacilitiesfor199105arereflected inTable2.84. Table2.84: EstimatedMethaneEmissionsfromMunicipalandIndustrialSolidWasteDisposal SitesinJamaica(199005)
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Incineration TheTier1methodologywasusedtoestimateCH4andN2Oemissions. Medicalwaste Data on thequantity ofwaste incinerated wereestimated inthe case of medical waste based on dataprovidedbysomeindustrieswithincineratorsfortheperiodunderreview.Datafrom1999for thenumberofbedsinhospitalsandtheamountofmedicalwastegeneratedwereobtainedfrom the Ministry of Health (Quantification of Infectious Waste and Sizing of Incinerators for Selected MinistryofHealthInstitutions,1999).Thesedatawereusedtocalculatetheannualrateofwaste generated per bed. Updated information on the number of beds in the hospitals Kingston Public Hospital,VictoriaJubileeMaternity,BustamanteHospitalforChildren(BHC),SpanishTownHospital and Princess Margaret Hospital in 2001 was obtained from the Ministry of Health website (http://www.moh.gov.jm/), which allowed the calculation of the amount of medical waste generatedateachhospitalfor2000and2001usingthegenerationratefromthe1999study.This averagefigureof93.5kg/bed/yearwasusedtocalculatethequantityofwastegeneratedforother hospitalsfor2000and2001. Datafrom2002forthenumberofbedsandtheamountofwastegeneratedintheKingstonPublic Hospital,MayPenHospital,MandevilleHospital,MontegoBayTypeVHealthCentreandSt.Ann's Bay Hospital were obtained from the draft report on Clinical Waste Management in Jamaica by Scott Crossett and were used to calculate the amount of waste/bed/year for 2002. Missing data werereplacedwiththosefor2001.The2002datawereusedfor2003and2004withtheexception oftheUniversityHospitaloftheWestIndies(UHWI).Thenumberofbedsandtheamountofwaste forUHWIwereavailablefromtheEIAreportEnvironmentalImpactAssessmentfortheInstallation of a New Incinerator at the University Hospital of the West Indies, 2004. The 2004 values were assumedtobethesamein2005. The default values for the emission factors for CH4 and N2O from the 2006 IPCC Guidelines were used(60kgCH4/Ggwasteand100kgN2O/Ggwasterespectively). IndustrialWastefromPrivateIncinerators TheNormanManleyInternationalAirportcaterstoover1.7millionpassengersandhandlesover70 percent(16millionkilogram)oftheisland'sairfreight.TheAirportbusinessnetworkiscomprisedof over 70 companies and government agencies, with over 3,500 persons directly employed at the Airport.TheAirportOperator,NMIAAIRPORTSLIMITED,(since2003)isawhollyownedsubsidiary ofAirportsAuthorityofJamaica(AAJ);astatutoryagency.TheAirportisoperatedundera30year ConcessionAgreementwithAAJ,andisheldtospecificperformancetargets. Theairportgeneratessignificantquantitiesoflocalandinternationalwaste.ItisaMinistryofHealth requirement for the international waste to be segregated and incinerated rather than being commingledwithlocalwasteanddisposedofatthemunicipaldisposalsite.Theincineratoratthe
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airporthasbeeninoperationsinceOctober2004,whereanestimated10.48tonsofwasteperday isburned22.Theseareestimatessincenofacilitiesareavailabletoweighthewaste. TheLASCOGroupofCompanies(Jamaica)comprisesseveralbusinessesinvolvedinmanufacturing, packaginganddistributionofhighquality,nutritiousandaffordableproductssuchassoybeverages, cereals, canned foods, household, personal care, pharmaceuticals and veterinary products. In additionLASCOoffersfinancialandremittanceservices.Anestimateofwastematerialgeneratedat Lascos Whitemarl warehousing and distribution facility, between 2000 and 2005 was based on actual figures for items prepared by the Quality Control Department for dumping in 2006 (Table 2.85). Table2.85:QuantityofWasteIncineratedAnnuallyatLascosWhitemarlFacility(200005)
OtherSites Nodatawereavailable forthefollowing incinerators which were included on NEPAs listofthose receivingpermitssinceJanuary1997,whenthepermitandlicensesystemcameintoeffect: BosungEngineeringandConstructionCompanyLimited, MinistryofAgricultureatPlumbPoint(Palisadoes) HealthCorporationLimited NationalSupplyCompanyLimited,ConstantSpringRoad TheincineratoratAlpart,Nain,St.Elizabeth(whichwasneverconstructed). Thedefaultemissionfactor fromthe IPCC 2006 GuidelinesusedtocalculateCH4emissions(60kg CH4/Ggwaste).Itwasassumedthatthetypeofincinerationwasbatchtypeincinerationstoker. ThedefaultemissionfactorvalueusedtocalculatetheN2Oemissionswas100kgN2O/Ggwastefor all types of industrial incineration. To calculate the CO2 emissions, default values were obtained fromthe2006IPCCGuidelinesfortherelevantwastestreams. The estimated CH4and N2O emissions from incinerators for 200005 were negligible, as shown in Table2.86.TheestimatedCO2emissionsfrommedicalandindustrialwasteincineratorsfor200005 areshownintheTable2.87.
EnvironmentalAuditoftheNormanManleyInternationalAirport,March2000byDonovanRose& AssociatesandTEMNfortheAAJandtheIDB
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Table2.86:EstimatedMethaneandNitrousOxideEmissionsfromIncinerationinJamaica(2000 05)
Table2.87:EstimatedCarbonDioxideEmissionsfromIncinerationinJamaica(200005)
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OpenBurningOfWaste The Tier 2 methodology was used to estimate the CH4 and N2O emissions from open burning of waste.CountryspecificdataonthequantityofopenburnedMSWwasusedtogetherwithdefault emissionfactorsfromthe2006IPCCGuidelines. The Tier 2a methodology was used to estimate the CO2 emissions from open burning of waste. Countryspecificdataonthequantityofopenburnedmunicipalsolidwasteandthecompositionby wastestreamwereusedtogetherwithdefaultemissionfactorsfromthe2006IPCCGuidelines. Populationdatafor200005wereobtainedfromSTATINwebsiteandtheproportionofwasteopen burnedin2001wasobtainedfromPopulationCensus2001Jamaica,Vol.4PartA,Housing.Ofthe total748,326householdsinJamaicain2001,321,945or43%(Pfrac)reportedlyburnedtheirwaste. Thispercentagewasappliedtoalltheotheryearsintheinventoryperiod,2000,20022005inthe absenceofyearspecificdata. Per capita waste generation (MSWp) for Jamaica is 1 kg/per person per day. The 2006 IPCC Guidelinessuggestthatifallwasteisburnedwithoutleavingaresidue,thefractionofwasteburned relativetotheamountofwastetreated(Bfrac)wasteshouldbe1.Inthiscase,itwasestimatedto be0.8asnearlyallthewasteisburnedwithasmallamountofashresidue.Itwasalsoassumedthat burningtookplacetwiceperweek.Alltheforegoingdatawereusedtoestimatethetotalamountof municipalsolidwasteburned(MSWB). MSWB was then used to calculate the CH4 emissions by multiplying by a CH4 emission factor of 6500g/tMSWwetweight(or6500kg/Gg)assuggestedinthe2006IPCCGuidelines.SimilarlyMSWB was multiplied by a N2O emission factor of 150 g/t of MSW (or 150 kg/Gg) as indicated in IPCC Guidelines. ThewastecompositiondataprovidedbytheNSWMAwasappliedtothetotalamountofmunicipal solidwasteburnedtocalculatetheamountofeachwastestreamburned. TocalculatetheCO2emissions,drymattercontentdm,fractionofcarbonindrymatterandfraction of fossil carbon in Total carbon were all obtained from the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for the relevant wastestreams.Thedefaultvalueforoxidationfactorof58foropenburningofMSWwasused. TheCO2,N2OandCH4emissionsfromopenburningestimatedfor200005areshowninTable2.89.
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Table2.89:
Estimated Carbon Dioxide, Nitrous Oxide & Methane Emissions from Open BurninginJamaica(200005)
Summaryofresults Tables2.90to2.93presentasummaryofthetotalgreenhousegasemissionsfromthewastesector. Table2.90:TotalCarbonDioxideEmissions(Gg)fromtheWasteSectorinJamaica(200005)
Table2.91:TotalMethaneEmissions(Gg)fromtheWasteSectorinJamaica(200005)
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Table2.92:TotalNitrousOxideEmissions(Gg)fromtheWasteSectorinJamaica(200005)
Uncertainties,QualityAnalysisandQualityControl Domesticwastewater(CH4):TheaverageannualBOD5datafordomestic/commercialwastewater for 200005 obtained from the National Water Commission and the NEPA werenot complete. No plant had data for every year and even within the year the plants were sampled, the data were sparsewithonlyoneortwovaluesbeingavailable.Alsowheremultiplevalueswereavailablefora giventreatmentplant,thevaluesoftenvariedwidely.Thedesigncapacitiesofthetreatmentplant hadtobeused,ratherthantheactualannualaverageflowrate. Populationdatafortheareasservedbyeachtreatmentplantwereonlyavailableforsomeplants (62.5% or 10 out of 16) for 2001. The missing data may affect the calculated value of 9.25 g BOD/capita/day.Evenwiththemissingdata,thecalculatedvalueforBOD/capita/daywasbelieved to be more accurate than the estimated value of 40 g BOD/person/day for Asia, Middle East and Latin America from Table 6.4 in the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. Calculations on the population and fractionofpopulationincomegroupfor2000and200205weredonebasedondatafromSTATIN (PopulationCensus2001Housing)for2001. Dataforthepopulationfractionfortheotheryearswerebasedondatafor2001intheabsenceof yearspecific data. Data for the degree of utilization of type of treatment system (sewered, not sewered, pit latrines) for 2002 were obtained from the 2002 Jamaica Survey of Living Conditions. The same data were used for 200005, even though there was a small increase in the use of unseweredwaterclosetsandacorrespondingdeclineintheuseofpitlatrinesbasedonthe2004 JamaicaSurveyofLivingConditions.Itwasnotpossibletoutilizethe2004datahoweveras,unlike the2002data,itdidnothavetheurbantoruraldisaggregation. Since no countryspecific data were available for the emission factors for domestic wastewater, estimateswerebasedondefaultemissionfactorvaluesprovidedbythe2006IPCCGuidelines.Using thedefaultvalues,togetherwithexpertjudgment,thepercentageuncertaintyintheCH4emission estimationswerecalculatedandarepresentedintheTable2.93.
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Table2.93:
PercentageUncertaintyinMethaneEmissionEstimationsfor DomesticWasteWaterFacilities
Industrialwastewater(CH4):Dataforthetotalindustrialproduct(P)for200005forsomeindustrial sectorswereprovidedbyPIAJ(EconomicandSocialSurveyJamaica2004and2006).Sincedatafor wastewater generated (W) and the chemical oxygen demand (COD) were not available, default valuesfromtheIPCCGuidelineswereused.Datawerenotavailableforallsectors. Someofthecriticalindustrialsectorsforwhichtherewasnodatainclude: Coffeeandcocoaindustry,fishprocessing,detergentproductionandsugarrefiningno IPCCvaluesfortherateofgenerationofwastewaterforthesecriticalsectorswhichare knowntoproducesignificantqualitiesofwastewater; Fishprocessing,vegetableoilproduction,detergentproductionnoIPCCCODvalues. Actualdataforwastewatergeneratedpertonneofproductionwasavailableforthesugarindustry a major industry which generates large quantities of industrial wastewater. This value was calculated using the 2003 sugar production from Bernard Lodge and the 2003 quantity of wastewater generated. The production data was obtained from the Sugar Industry Institute 2005 AnnualReportandthequantityofwastewatergeneratedbyBernardLodgein2003wasobtained fromthedatacollectedfortheKingstonHarbourStudy23conductedinOctober2004.Thecalculated valueof33m3/twasnoticeablyhigherthanthesuggestedrangeof418m3/tintheIPCCGPGAUM.
InstitutionalStrengtheningforEnhancedEnvironmentalManagementofKingstonHarbour,ComponentB, ImprovingTheEnvironmentalPerformanceOfIndustriesDischargingToKingstonHarbour,Preparedforthe NationalEnvironmentandPlanningAgencybyClaudeDavis&Associates
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Sincethewastewatergenerationratepertonneofproductionwasonlycalculatedfromonesugar factoryandusedasrepresentativeforallsugarfactories,therecouldbesomeerrorinthisfigure. Information for the maximum CH4 producing capacity (B0) and CH4correction factor was not availableanddefaultvaluesfromthe2006IPCCGuidelineshadtobeused.Usingthedefaultvalues, together with expert judgment, the percentage uncertainty in the CH4 emission estimations were calculatedandarepresentedinTable2.94. Table2.94:PercentageUncertaintyinMethaneEmissionEstimations fromIndustrialWastewaterFacilities
Waste water (N2O): The data from the FAO on the amount of protein available for consumption shouldbereliable.However,percapitaconsumptionofproteindatawereonlyavailablefor2001 03,sothesamevaluewasusedfor2000,2004and2005.Usingthedefaultvaluesprovidedinthe 2006 IPCC Guidelines, together with expert judgment, the percentage uncertainty in the CH4 emissionestimationswascalculatedandispresentedintheTable2.95. Table2.95:PercentageUncertaintyinNitrousOxideEmissionsfromWasteWater
Biological treatment of solid waste: Uncertainties for activity data related to biologically treated waste was done using information from the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. Uncertainties related to the emissionfactorswerecalculatedusingtherangesprovidedinthe2006IPCCGuidelines.
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ThedatafromtheScientificResearchCouncilontheCH4gasflowrateisexpectedtobereliableand a +10% error was assumed. The CH4recovery (R) uncertainty was obtained from the 2006 IPCC Guidelineswhichsuggesteda%uncertaintyformeteredCH4recoveryorflaringsystemsof+10.The %uncertaintyfortheCH4emissionfactorforavalueof2withinarangeof0to20wascalculatedto be 100% to +900%. This information was obtained from the 2006 IPCC Guidelines. The overall uncertaintywasthereforecalculatedtobe120%to+920%(Table2.96). N2Oemissionsareassumedtobenegligibleandanuncertaintyanalysiswasthereforenotdone. Table2.96:PercentageUncertaintyforEstimatedMethaneEmissionsFromBiodigesters
Solid wastedisposal: Population data were estimated for 199095 based ondata for 1991 and an annual growth rate of 0.86. Data on Jamaicas per capita generation rate and the fraction of municipal solid waste disposed to solid waste disposal sites for 1994 was used for 199099. For 200005,datafrom2000wasextrapolatedusingtheannualgrowthrate.However,theactualdata mayvaryfromthecalculateddata. Dataforthequantityofwastedisposedofatdifferentsiteswasonlycompletefor2005.For2000 04,thedatawereincompleteandfor2002notavailable.Therefore,calculationsonthepercentages ofwastegoingtothedifferentdisposalsitesandtheMethaneCorrectionFactors(MCF)mayhave someerror. Data for the waste streams and composition of domestic waste was available for 1996, 2000 and 2006. For 199005, data were extracted from this information, but the actual values might be different.Estimatesofuncertaintieswerecalculatedbasedonthe2006IPCCGuidelines(Table2.97).
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Table2.97:PercentageUncertaintyforMethaneEmissionsfromSolidWasteDisposalSites
Incineration: For medical waste, it was assumed that each hospital bed had 100% occupancy throughouttheyear,althoughitislikelythatoccupancylevelsvaried.Alsoitwasassumedthatall wastegeneratedwasincinerated.Datafortheamountofmedicalwasteandthenumberofbedsin hospitals were not available for all hospitals in all years so there were some uncertainties in the estimatesoftheamountsofwasteincinerated.Therewerealsotwomedicalfacilitiesforwhichno informationwasavailableontheannualrateofgenerationofsolidwaste:theNationalPublicHealth LaboratoryandtheNationalBloodBank. Sitespecific emission factors for CH4 and for N2O were not available and default values obtained fromthe2006IPCCGuidelineswereused. Forindustrialwaste,datafortheamountofwasteburnedatNormanManleyInternationalAirport was based on estimates since no weighing facilities are available. Some CH4 emissions are unaccountedfor,asitwasdifficulttoobtaininformationfromsomefacilitieswhichNEPAgranted permits to operate incinerators. Also there are incinerators in operation throughout the country whichexistedpriortotheNEPApermitandlicensesystem(introducedinJanuary1997)forwhich nodataisavailable. Table 2.98 provides information on the calculated uncertainties associated with the estimation of emissionsforCH4,CO2andN2O.Therewasinsufficientinformationinthe2006IPCCGuidelinesto calculatethepercentageuncertaintyforCO2emissions.
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Table2.98: PercentageUncertaintyinMethane,CarbonDioxideandNitrousOxideEstimations forMedicalandIndustrial/PrivateSectorWasteIncineration
Openburningofwaste:Thedefaultvalueforthefractionofwasteburnedrelativetotheamountof waste treated (Bfrac) had to be used in the absence of country specific data. Data for the waste streamsandcompositionofdomesticwastewereavailablefor2000and2006.The2000datawere usedfor200103whilethe2006datawereusedfor200405. Table 2.99 provides information on the calculated uncertainties associated with the estimation of emissionsforCH4,CO2andN2O.Therewasinsufficientinformationinthe2006IPCCGuidelinesto calculatethepercentageuncertaintyforCO2emissions.
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Table2.99:PercentageUncertaintyinMethane,CarbonDioxideandNitrousOxideEstimationsfor IncinerationbyOpenBurningofWaste
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CHAPTER2REFERENCES Asman, W.A.H., Sutton, M.A. and Schjoerring, J.K. (1998), Ammonia: emission, atmospheric transportanddeposition.NewPhytol.139,p.2748. Brown,S.(1997).Estimatingbiomassandbiomasschangeoftropicalforests:Aprimer.FAOForestry Paperno.134,Rome.55p. Camirand, R. and Evelyn, O.B. (2003). Ecological land classification for forest management and conservationinJamaica.JamaicaCanadaTreesforTomorrowProjectPhaseII,ForestryDepartment andTecsultInternational,Kingston,Jamaica.40p. Evelyn,O.andCamirand,R.,(2003).ForestcoveranddeforestationinJamaica:Ananalysisofforest coverestimatesovertime.InternationalForestryReview5(4):354363. FAO,2005 Forestry Department (2001). National forest management and conservation plan. Ministry of Agriculture,Kingston,Jamaica.100p.andappendices. FRA, 2005. Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005, Progress towards sustainable forest management, FAO Forestry Paper 147, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome,2005 IPCC2006GuidelinesforNationalGreenhouseGasinventories. JenningsP.G.,MillerR.C.French,D.L.Pryce,M.A(2004)CurrentdemographicsoftheJamaicandairy farmingsector:analysisofa2004survey. Jennings P. and Duffus B. (2005) The Current State of the Jamaican Cattle Sector Final Report. JamaicaDairyDevelopmentBoard. JamaicaLivestockAssociationLtd,Poultryproductiondata. http://www.jlaltd.com/about.committees.html MinistryofAgriculture(2003),SurveyofpigfarmersinJamaica.DataBankandEvaluationDivision, MinistryofAgriculture. Monteny,G.J.andErisman,J.W.(1998).Ammoniaemissionsfromdairycowbuildings:Areviewof measurementtechniques,influencingfactorsandpossibilitiesforreduction.Neth.J.Agric.Sci.46,p 225247 STATIN(1996)TheAgriculturalCensus.StatisticalInstituteofJamaica Thompson,D.A.,Wright,D.L.andEvelyn,O.(1986).ForestresourcesinJamaica.InThompson,D.A., Bretting,P.K.andHumphreys,M.(eds.).ForestsofJamaica.TheJamaicanSocietyofScientistsand Technologists,Kingston,Jamaica.pp.8190. SNCOFJAMAICA
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CHAPTER3:
PROGRAMMESCONTAININGMEASURESTOMITIGATECLIMATECHANGE
A mitigation assessment provides a nationallevel analysis of the potential costs and impacts of various technologies and practices that have the capacity to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The assessment presented here was initiated in March 2009. The scope of the assessmentcoversprojectionsofGHGsfor200935anduseshistoricaldatafor2000(thebaseyear) to 2008 in order to calibrate, where appropriate, the bases for the projections. Three groups of scenarios were developed to project emissions a Reference Scenario and two other scenarios characterisedprimarilybydifferentratesofgrowthofthegrossdomesticproduct(GDP). The assessment draws upon the overarching strategic direction that will guide Jamaicas developmentto2030,asarticulatedinVision2030Jamaica:NationalDevelopmentPlan.ThePlan outlinesfournationalgoals,15nationaloutcomes,andover50nationalstrategiestoachievethem. Thenationalstrategieswillbeimplementedthroughsectorlevelprogrammes,plansandactivities for the social, governance, economic, and environmental goals of Vision 2030. The Plan will be supported by seven threeyear, mediumterm socioeconomic policy framework (MTF) documents. MTF 200912 is the first such document, which includes one outcome on energy efficiency and conservation.Itisrecognisedthatthe25yearperiodselectedforthismitigationassessmentgoes fiveyearsbeyondVision2030. Althoughtheassessmentfocusesprimarilyonenergyrelatedemissions,nonenergysectoractivities (agriculture, forestry, waste, and nonenergy emissions) are also included. As noted in Chapter 2 (GHGInventory),carbondioxide(CO2)emissionsin theenergy sectorhave beentrending up over 200005 increasing from 9,531 Gigagrams (Gg) in 2000 to 13,956 Gg in 2005. Theenergy sector accountedfornearly86percentofthe2000CO2emissions. Themitigationassessmentispresentedinfoursections.Section1providesbackgroundinformation on characteristics most relevant to Jamaicas mitigation analysis (e.g., resources, common macroeconomic data). The approach (model description and scenarios) and the constraints in developing the mitigation assessment are described in Section 2. Section 3 presents the results, while mitigation options, policy implications, capacity building needs, and recommendations are presentedinSection4. 3.1.BackgroundInformation AsmeasuredbytheHumanDevelopmentIndex1(HDI),Jamaicaisconsideredtobeamediumlevel developingcountry,withanHDIscoreof0.736,ranking101stoutof177countriesin2008.TheHDI combinesmeasuresoflifeexpectancy,literacy,schoolenrolmentandpercapitaGDPintoasingle indextomeasurerelativehumandevelopmentamongnations.ThisindexvaluereflectsthatJamaica ischaracterizedbyweakeconomicdevelopment,asevidencedbylowGDPgrowthrates,highdebt load,highunemployment,weakexportperformanceandenergydependencebutrelativelystrong socialindicatorsincludingahighlifeexpectancy,highprimaryandsecondaryenrolmentrates,high literacyrates,lowbirthrates,aswellashighaccesstoelectricityandpipedwater(seeTable3.1).
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Table3.1:SelectSocioEconomicIndicatorsforJamaica(200008) INDICATORS 2000 2005 2006 RealGDPGrowth(%) 0.9 1.0 2.7 Debt:GDPRatio 88.7 119.1 117.5 AverageAnnual 15.5 11.2 10.3 UnemploymentRate(%) AverageAnnualExchange 43.08 62.50 65.88 Rate(J$=US$1) Inflation(%) 6.1 12.6 5.7 Population(000) 2,597,100 2,656,700 2,669,500 PopulationGrowthRate(%) 0.6 0.5 0.5 LifeExpectancyatBirth 72.2 73.3 73.3 (years) AdultLiteracy(%ofages15 79.9 79.9 85.5 andolder) GrossPrimaryEnrolment 325.3 326.4 318.7 (000) %PopulationbelowPoverty 18.9 14.8 14.3 Line AccesstoPipedWater 66.6 n/a 67.8 AccesstoElectricity 92
2007 1.4 111.4 9.9 69.06 16.8 2,682,100 0.5 72.4 86.0 310 9.9 70.2 92
2008 0.6 10.6 72.92 16.8 2,692,400 0.4 92
Source:AdaptedfromVision2030Jamaica:NationalDevelopmentPlan. Othersources:BankofJamaica:http://www.boj.org.jm/exchange_rates_annual.php STATIN:http://www.statinja.gov.jm/population.aspx
In 2008, Jamaicas GDP per capita was US$5,345 (98th among 210 nations and territories of the world).Notwithstandingthis,Jamaicaranked54thoutof147countriesinthe2008Environmental PerformanceIndex(EPI),outperformingmanydevelopedcountriesandbeingamongtheleadersin theCaribbeanwithrespecttoenvironmentalprotectionandsustainability2. AsindicatedinTable3.1,between2000and2008,thepopulationrosefrom2,597,100to2,692,400 although the growth rate declined from 0.6 percent to 0.4 percent3. The population growth rate overthepasttwodecadeshasbeeninfluencedbydeclinesinfertilityratesaswellasinternational migration.Thepopulationwas50.7percentfemaleand49.3percentmalein2008;itwas53.5per centurbanvs.46.5percentruralin20074.Approximately43.3percentofthepopulationresidedin theKingstonMetropolitanRegion.Povertyhasbeendeclining:fromjustunder20percentin2000 tojustbelow10percentin2007. Economic growth over 200008has been lessthan favourable. Over the past decade, the rate of growthofthegrossdomesticproduct(GDP)rangedbetween3.5percentand0.6percent.Thiswas causedinpartbyexternalfactorssuchastheSeptember2001terroristattackontheUnitedStates of America (USA) and the SARS pneumonia outbreak in 2003 which adversely affected tourism; unprecedentedrisesinoilpricesin2007and2008andtheglobalrecessionthatstartedin2008.In addition,therewerethelocaleffectsofhurricanesMichelle(2001),Ivan(2004),Dennis,Emily,and Wilma(2005),Dean(2007),andGustav(2008)5.TheaverageannualexchangerateoftheJamaican dollaragainsttheUSdollarrosefrom43in2000to80in2008.Oilpricesincreased52percentin
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2005, 20 percent in 2006, and 70 percent in 2008. This was particularly significant since Jamaica dependsonimportedpetroleumtomeet95percentofitsenergyneeds. Towards the end of 2008, there was sharp contraction in global financial markets which, among other things, led to depreciation of the value of the Jamaican dollar and negatively impacted bauxite, tourism and agriculture. Towards the end of 2009, the impacts of the global recession continuedtotakeeffectinJamaica,whichsawtheclosureofthreeofitsfouraluminaplants(Alpart, WindalcosEwartonandKirkvineWorks). The gross value added of industrial sectors to GDP in Jamaica for 199908 and the percent contributionarepresentedinTables3.2and3.3.
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Table3.2:GrossValueAddedByIndustryAtConstant(2003)Prices(199908),in$'Million 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Agriculture,Forestry&Fishing 30,547.5 26,675.9 28,458.4 26,521.4 28,389.8 25,196.5 Mining&Quarrying 17,483.4 17,429.3 17,942.8 18,312.5 19,233.6 19,659.3 Manufacture 47,942.2 47,135.4 46,771.7 45,838.7 45,597.4 46,245.2 Electricity&WaterSupply 14,039.8 14,314.7 14,408.7 15,072.6 15,782.4 15,761.8 Construction 35,552.0 35,632.2 35,570.3 35,222.7 37,001.4 40,126.5 Wholesale&RetailTrade,Repairs 85991.9 88,100.9 87,845.8 88,205.7 89,668.2 91,017.2 &InstallationofMachinery Hotels&Restaurants Transport,Storage& Communication Finance&InsuranceServices RealEstate,Renting&Business Activities ProducersofGovernmentServices OtherServices LessFinancialIntermediation ServicesIndirectlyMeasured
2005 23,490.6 20,212.9 44,214.6 16,416.4 43,124.9
2006 27,286.1 20,395.6 43,224.6 16,949.3 42,297.2
2007 25,696.1 19,863.8 43,541.2 17,043.8 44,230.2
2008 24,362.1 19,370.4 42,924.7 17,197.7 41,286.1
92,329.5 94,402.5 96,039.7 95,877.8
85,991.9 21,911.8 21,632.3 21,685.1 22,686.5 23,664.4 24,733.5 27,230.4 27,320.6 27,929.9 20,814.2 49,015.2 51,375.2 54,553.6 56,747.8 57,546.0 58,068.2 60,651.5 62,664.7 61,250.6 45,944.2 44,001.1 46,617.0 49,533.3 52,898.8 54,379.4 54,132.3 55,383.8 57,268.5 57,738.8 42,250.2 43,754.0 44,133.4 44,383.4 45,359.3 46,233.9 46,871.2 47,679.2 49,190.1 49,800.9 43,825.4 56,679.9 57,454.4 57,941.8 58,055.2 58,144.2 58,294.0 58,579.1 59,365.5 59,322.9 56,898.2 28,504.9 28,555.5 29,287.0 30,504.6 31,228.0 32,078.2 33,380.1 34,075.6 34,238.8 28,120.1 23,020.2 24,576.4 25,941.9 25,179.1 25,577.5 25,482.7 25,713.4 27,050.9 26,879.0
TotalGrossValueAddedAtBasic 446,214.2 450,135.1 456,189.2 460,616.0 476,745.8 483,624.7 488,483.5 501,746.1 509,248.9 504,421.7 Prices
Sources:FromBankofJamaicaStatisticalDigestMay2009;Table46.2GrossDomesticProductValueAddedByIndustryAtConstant(2003)Prices,19982007. http://statinja.gov.jm/VALUEADDEDBYINDUSTRYATCONSTANT%282003%29PRICES.aspx
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Table3.3:PercentContributiontoTotalGoodsandServicesProductioninBasicValuesatConstant(2003)Prices(199908) 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Agriculture,ForestryandFishing 6.8 5.9 6.2 5.8 6.0 5.2 4.8 5.4 MiningandQuarrying 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.1 4.1 Manufacture 10.7 10.5 10.3 10.0 9.6 9.6 9.1 8.6 ElectricityandWaterSupply 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4 Construction* 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.8 8.3 8.8 8.4 Wholesale&RetailTrade,Repairs& InstallationofMachinery 19.3 19.6 19.3 19.1 18.8 18.8 18.9 18.8 Hotels&Restaurants 19.3 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.4 Transport,StorageandCommunication Finance&InsuranceServices RealEstate,Renting&BusinessActivities ProducersofGovernmentServices OtherServices LessFinancialIntermediationServices IndirectlyMeasured(FISIM) Total GDPat2003Prices(J$Billions) 4.7 10.3 9.5 9.8 12.8 6.3 100 446.2 10.9 9.8 9.7 12.6 6.3 5.1 100 450.1 11.3 10.2 9.7 12.6 6.3 5.4 100 456.2 11.8 10.8 9.6 12.6 6.4 5.6 100 460.6 11.9 11.1 9.5 12.2 6.4 5.3 100 476.7 11.9 11.2 9.6 12.0 6.5 5.3 100 483.6 11.9 11.1 9.6 11.9 6.6 5.2 100 488.5 12.1 11.0 9.5 11.7 6.7 5.1 100 501.7
2007 5.0 3.9 8.5 3.4 8.7 18.9 5.4 12.3 11.2 9.7 11.7 6.7 5.3 100 509.2
2008 4.8 3.8 8.5 3.4 8.2 19.0 5.5 12.1 11.4 9.9 11.8 6.8 5.3 100 504.4
Sources:FromBankofJamaicaStatisticalDigestMay2009;Table46.1PercentageContributionOfGrossDomesticProductValueAddedByIndustryAt Constant(2003)Prices,19982007;Datafor2008derivedfromSTATIN:GrossValueAddedByIndustryAtConstant(2003)Prices,20042008$'Million. http://statinja.gov.jm/VALUEADDEDBYINDUSTRYATCONSTANT%282003%29PRICES.aspx
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3.1.1 JamaicasEnergySectorProfile Jamaicahasnoknownprimarypetroleumorcoalreservesandimportsallofitspetroleumandcoal requirements. Domestic energy needs are met by burning petroleum products and coal and renewable fuel biomass (i.e., bagasse, fuel wood, and charcoal) and from using other renewable resources(e.g.,solar,windandhydro).Figure3.1illustratesthatin2008approximately86percent of the energy mix is imported petroleum, with the remainder coming from renewables and coal. The data for Figure 3.2 excluded fuel supplied for international bunkers. Electricity is generated primarilybyoilfiredsteam,enginedriven,andgasturbineunits.Smalleramountsofelectricityare generatedbyhydroelectricandwindpower.Useofsolarenergyisnegligibleandislimitedtoafew solarwaterheatersandsolarcropdryers. Figure3.1:JamaicasEnergySupply(2008)
The Petrojam refinery, which has a nameplate capacity of 35,000 barrels per stream day (bsd), provides some of the refined petroleum products and the remainder is imported. Petrojam is a stateownedenterpriseandtheelectricutilitytheJamaicaPublicServiceCompanyLimited(JPS) is80.1percentprivatelyownedandtheremaindergovernmentowned.JPSisthesoledistributorof electricity to the public and it generates the majority of the electricity sold to the public. The remainderispurchasedfromindependentprivatelyownedpowerproducers(IPPs).Asmallamount ofelectricityisgeneratedbyindustrial,commercialorresidentialoperatorsfortheirownuse.The petroleum product market is open and Petrojam, along with multinational petroleum marketing companies, imports refined petroleum products. Heavy fuel oil needed by the bauxite alumina industryisimporteddirectlybytheindustry. Energy consumption by enduse activity between 2000 and 2008 is shown in Figure 3.2, which showsthesectorsthatuseenergyandalsoincludesthefuelssuppliedtointernationalbunkers.The latter are not counted as part of Jamaicas energy consumption since consumption of these fuels occursoutsideJamaicasborders.
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Figure3.2:JamaicasEnergyEndUseandInternationalBunkers(200008)
12,000,000
10,000,000
BarrelsfoOilEquivalent
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0 2000 OtherManufacturing 2001 Govt 2002 Electricity 2003 Bauxite/Alumina 2004 Transportation 2005 Bunkers 2006 Sugar 2007 Other Cement 2008
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The bauxite and alumina industry has the largest percentage end use, which was 37.4 percent in 2008 (Figure 3.3), followed by electricity generation (25%), transportation (20.4%) and then the sugarindustry (12.2%). Themajorityofthe fuelusedinthesugarindustry isbagasse, withmuch smaller amounts of heavy fuel oil and wood and while the other sectors use petroleum products nearlyexclusively.Theexceptionsarecoalinthecementindustryandsmallamountsofwoodused at one lime kiln. In making the sectoral assignments from the data provided by MEM, it was assumedthatallgasolineconsumptionwasfortransportation.Smallquantitiesofgasolineareused fordomesticmarinevesselsbutitwasnotfeasibletoallocatefuelconsumptionfordomesticmarine purposes.Initiallyalloftheturboandaviationgasolinewasattributedtointernationalbunkersbut were adjusted downwards by the estimates of fuel used for landings and take offs and internal flights.Detailsofthemethodologyforestimatingfueluseandemissionsfromdomesticflightsare providedinthenationalGHGemissioninventory6(Chapter2).Estimatesofcharcoaluse(included intheOthersectoraresubjecttoconsiderableuncertaintysincetheproductionanddistribution ofcharcoalisintheinformaleconomy. Figure3.3:PercentageEndUseofJamaicasEnergy(2008)
Bauxite/Alumina 37.4% Electricity 25.0% Transportation 20.4% Govt 0.4% Other Manufacturing 1.1% Cement 1.0% Sugar 12.2%
Other 2.6%
Sources:MinistryofEnergyandMining;CementCompany;JamaicaBauxiteInstitute,SugarIndustryResearch Institute.Preferencewasgiventoprimarydatasourceswhenthesedatawereavailable.
3.1.2 NationalInstitutionsandAgenciesRelatedtoImplementationofMitigationActions Thekeyinstitutionsinvolvedinclimatechangemitigationarethesameasthosethatareinvolvedin the implementation of Jamaicas National Energy Policy (200930). Goal 5 of the Energy Policy speaks to Jamaica having welldefined and established governance, institutional, legal and regulatory framework for the energy sector that facilitates stakeholder involvement and engagement. The policy also plans to ensure that the (energy sector) institutional framework includes mechanisms for improved coordination and organization between and within energy agenciesandcapacitybuildingtomeetthehumanresourceneeds. Sinceclimatechangeandmitigationissuesaffectnearlyallpublicandprivatesectorinstitutionsand everyfacetoflife,itwillbenecessarytofocusonthoseinstitutionsandtheirpoliciesandlegislation under whose portfolios there are highest GHG emissions and opportunities for mitigation. The
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highestGHGemissionsoccurinthetransport,transformation(electricitygenerationandpetroleum refining),andthemineralprocessing(aluminaandcementmanufacture)sectors.Implementation ofmitigationactivitiesinvariablywillneedfacilitatingandsupportingrolesfromotherinstitutionsto provide suitable financial incentives, assessment and analysis of outcomes, public relations and publiceducation.Theseinstitutionsandtheexistingpoliciesandlegislationaredescribedbelowin order to identify issues that could present barriers and/or facilitate implementation of GHG mitigationactivities. A detailed analysis of the existing energy sector institutions was beyond the scope of this assessment but it is noted that the Energy Policy includes strategies to review and modify the existing institutional framework and industry structure as well as the legal and regulatory frameworksfortheenergysector. KeyInstitutionsDirectlyInvolvedInGHGMitigation Ministry of Energy and Mining (MEM): The Ministry of Energy and Mining (MEM) has the dual responsibilitiesofarticulatingJamaicasNationalEnergyPolicyandcoordinatingthemonitoringof its implementation. The Ministry, along with its agencies, is responsible for establishing the legislative and policy framework to facilitate the achievement of Jamaicas national energy goals, whichhaveimplicationsforthemitigationactivitiesandprojectionsoutlinedinthisassessment.It also provides the necessary guidelines for its agencies for general medium and longterm energy strategyplanning.MEM,incollaborationwithitsagenciesandseveralotherGovernmententitiesas well as other partners and stakeholders in the public and private sectors, is also leading the developmentofacarbontradingpolicy7. MEM,insettingindicatorsandtargetsfortheenergysector,willalsobemindfulofthemitigation activities as well as the projections and take into account key issues such as need for the use of cleanertechnologiesinindustryaswellasenablingamoreefficientenergysectoringeneralaswell asleadingvariousinitiativesforthediversificationofenergy. The Petroleum Corporation of Jamaica (PCJ): The Petroleum Act of 1979 established PCJ as a StatutoryCorporationunderMEM,withtheexclusiverighttoexploreforoil,todevelopJamaica's petroleum resources, and to enter all stages of the petroleum industry. The PCJ Group has subsidiaries Petrojam Limited, which operates the oil refinery, Petrojam Ethanol Limited, Petcom Limited,themarketingandretailingcompany,JamaicaAircraftRefuellingServicesandWigtonWind farmLimited.ThePetrojamrefineryistheonlyrefineryinJamaica.Togetherwithprivatelyowned petroleummarketingcompanies,itsuppliesrefinedpetroleumproductsfortheJamaicamarket. PCJ assists with implementing Jamaicas National Energy Policy while promoting sustainable development, not only in energy, but also in other areas of national importance with the aim of fostering energy security. PCJ, in its role of undertaking the development and promotion of Jamaica'sindigenousenergyresourcesandallformsofrenewableenergy,willhaveafundamental role in Jamaicas mitigation efforts especially as it relates to the introduction of as much as 20 percent renewables in the energy mix by 2030. Towards this end, as of November 2009, all of JamaicasgasolinewillbebasedonE10. In2006,PCJestablishedaCentreforRenewableEnergy(CERE)tosupporttheresearch,promotion and development of renewable fuels and electricity from renewable sources for the Jamaican SNCOFJAMAICA
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market. CERE plans to partner with tertiary institutions and collaborate with government and privatesectoragenciesthatstriketheproperbalancebetweenenvironmentalprotection,economic growthandthedemonstrationofrenewableenergysources. TheJamaicaBauxiteInstitute(JBI):Thebauxiteandaluminasectoristhelargestenduserofenergy inJamaica,accountingforjustover37percentofJamaicasenergydemandin2008.In2009,the sector had one operating alumina refinery (Jamalco) and one company that mined and exported bauxite. Three alumina plants (Alumina Partners (Alpart) and two Windalco plants (Kirkvine and Ewarton)) were closed in 2009. The Jamaican Government owns 45 percent of the Jamalco, 7 percentoftheWindalcoand51percentoftheStAnnJamaicaBauxitePartners(SAJBP)operations. JBI was established in 1976 as an arm of the Jamaica National Investment Company (now the Development Bank of Jamaica, to deal mainly with the sovereign aspects of the Governments participationinthebauxiteandaluminaindustry.JBIsfunctionsinclude: monitoringandstudyingthealuminumindustry; providingtechnicaladvice; undertakingresearchanddevelopmentactivities; assessingandensuringrationalizationintheuseofJamaica'sbauxitereservesand(bauxite) land;and monitoring and making recommendations on pollution control and other environmental concernsintheindustry. JBIalsomanagestheBauxiteCommunityDevelopmentProgramme,whichinvolvesimplementation of development projects within the vicinity of bauxite and alumina operations, to foster harmony betweenthecommunityandthecompanies. JBIworksincollaborationwithotheragencies,andisproactiveinattainingcompatibilitybetween theindustry'soperations(processes,activitiesandproducts)andtheenvironmentby: ensuring that the operations are conducted with minimal or no adverse impact on the environment; ensuringcompliancewithalllocalstandardsandregulationsthroughmaintainingaregular andeffectivemonitoringprogramme; conducting regular reviews on the environmental performance of the industry and institutingthenecessarycorrectiveactions; promotingresearchanddevelopmentaimedatidentifyingnewtechnologiesforacleaner, moreefficientproductionprocessandwasteminimization;and fostering and maintaining a harmonious relationship with communities in the vicinity of bauxite/aluminaoperations. Electricity generating companies: Jamaicas electricity is generated by the Jamaica Public Service CompanyLimited(JPS)andprivatelyowned,independentpowerproducers(IPPs)JamaicaEnergy partners (JEP) and Jamaica Private Power Company (JPPC). JPS was privately owned until 1970 whentheGovernmentofJamaicaacquiredacontrollinginterest.In2001,theGovernmentretained 20percentofthecompanyandsoldtheremainderofitsholdingstoMirant,whichin2007soldits majority shares to Marubeni Caribbean Power Holdings (MCPH) Inc, a subsidiary of Marubeni CorporationofJapan.Inearly2009,Marubenitransferred50percentofitssharesinMCPHtoAbu DhabiNationalEnergyCompany(TAQA)oftheUnitedArabEmirates.
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JPS uses steam (heavy fuel oilfired), gas turbines, combined cycle, slow speeddiesel engines and hydropower while the IPPs use slow/medium speed diesel engines and wind turbines. JPS also purchases power from one supplier (Jamalco) that uses cogeneration. In 2008, the generating capacities of JPS and the IPPs were 621 MW and 89 MW respectively. The bauxite and alumina companiesandsugarfactoriesalsogenerateelectricityfortheirownuse. JPS is the sole distributor of electricity to a customer base of over 600,000. While JPS has the exclusive right to under its Licence to transmit, distribute and supply electricity throughout Jamaicauntil2021,effectiveApril2004theLicenceprovidesfortheadditionofgeneratingcapacity throughacompetitiveprocess. TheOfficeofUtilityRegulation(OUR):TheOURwasestablishedbyanActofParliamentin1995to regulatetheoperationsofutilitycompaniesinJamaica.TheOURisresponsibleforregulatingthe provisionofelectricity,telecommunications,water&sewerage,publictransportationbyroad,rail andferryservices.ThemainobjectivesoftheOURareto: ensure consumers of utility services enjoy an acceptable quality of service at reasonable cost; establish and maintain transparent, consistent and objective rules for the regulation of utilityserviceproviders; promote the longterm efficient provision of utility services for national development consistentwithGovernmentpolicy; provide an avenue of appeal for consumers who have grievances with the utility service providers; workwithotherrelatedagenciesinthepromotionofasustainableenvironment;and actindependentlyandimpartially. OUR makes utility rate applications and supporting information publicly available. This was a key sourceofinformationontheelectricitygeneratingsectorforthismitigationassessment.OURalso sets the regulatory policy to guide theprocess forthe additionof new generating capacity to the public electricity supply system. Currently, contractual arrangements (i.e., the Power Purchase Agreement(PPA)betweentheparties)forthesupplyofpowerisnegotiatedbetweenJPSandthe investorsupplyingpowerbutthePPAmustbeapprovedbytheOURbeforebeingmadeeffective. The Ministry of Transport and Works (MTW): MTWs primary responsibility is for Jamaicas land, marine, and air transport, as well as the main road network, including bridges, drains, gullies, embankmentsandothersuchinfrastructure.MTWhasregulatoryresponsibilityforthesafetyofall publiclyorprivatelyoperatedmodesoftransportation.Thisincludesairports,aerodromes,airline operators,seaports,shippingtraffic,andpubliclandtransportation,aswellasroadinfrastructure androadsafety.Theinfrastructureincludesa15,394kmroadnetwork,330kmofrailtrack,alarge fleet of public passenger buses, two international airports, four domestic aerodromes, ten specialisedseaportsandthreepublicdeepwaterports. There are 21 reporting entities that assist MTW in fulfilling its mandate. Among them are the Transport Authority (TA), the Island traffic Authority (ITA), the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA), Airports Authority of Jamaica (AAJ), and the Port Authority of Jamaica (PAJ). The Jamaica Urban
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TransitCompany(JUTC)andtheMontegoBayMetroBusCompany(MBM)operatepublicpassenger transportservicesintheKingstonMetropolitanTransportRegionandMontegoBayrespectively. TheTransportAuthorityregulateslicensingofallpublicandcommercialvehiclesandtheregulating andmonitoringofpublictransportation.TheIslandTrafficAuthorityadministerstheprovisionsof theRoadTrafficAct,andisresponsibleforthetestingofvehiclestoensurefitness,roadworthiness and general compliance with standards of safety. Vehicle registration information for the entire vehiclefleetismaintainedbytheInlandRevenue.DepartmentsintheMinistryofFinanceandthe IslandTransportAuthorityandTransportAuthorityalsohaveadditionaldatarelatingtotheirareas ofjurisdiction.
SupportingEnergySectorInstitutionsandAgencies The Office of the Prime Minister (OPM): The OPM is responsible for the environment; the EnvironmentManagementDivisionishousedwithinOPM.ThelastDesignatedNationalAuthority fortheCleanDevelopmentMechanism(CDM)waswithintheEMD,butduetothewordingofthe DNAassignmentandachangeinministerialassignmentforEMDtheDNAneededtobereassigned. AmongtheagenciesreportingtoOPMaretheNationalEnvironmentandPlanningAgency(NEPA), NationalSolidWasteManagementAuthority(NSWMA),theStatisticalInstituteofJamaica(STATIN), thePlanningInstituteofJamaica(PIOJ),andtheMeteorologicalService. NEPAistheagencyentrustedwithmanagingJamaicasnaturalandthemanmadeenvironmentand istheleadgovernmentagencyresponsibleforenvironmentalmanagementandspatialplanningin Jamaica. NSWMAisresponsibleforestablishingthestandardsandcriteriathatmustbeattainedbyoperators in the solid waste sector and for the collection and disposal of municipal solid waste. NSWMA currentlyoperateseightwastedisposalsitesinsevenparishesthatservetheentirecountry. STATINsmainfunctionsareto: collect, compile, analyse, abstract and publish statistical information relating to the commercial,industrial,social,economicandgeneralactivitiesandconditionofthepeople; collaboratewithpublicagenciesinthecollection,compilationandpublicationofstatistical informationincludingstatisticalinformationderivedfromtheactivitiesofsuchagencies; takeanycensusinJamaica;and generally promote and develop integrated social and economic statistics pertaining to Jamaicaandtocoordinateprogrammesfortheintegrationofsuchstatistics,inaccordance withtheprovisionsoftheStatisticsAmendmentAct(1984). PIOJistheforemostplanningagencyofthegovernmentanditsfunctionsasstipulatedinthePIOJ Actinclude: initiating and coordinating the development of policies, plan and programmes for the economic,financial,social,culturalandphysicaldevelopmentofJamaica; undertakingresearchonnationaldevelopmentissues; providingtechnicalandresearchsupporttotheCabinet; undertakingconsultantactivitiesforlocalandforeignGovernmententities; managingexternalcooperationagreementsandprogrammes;
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collaborating with external funding agencies in the identification and implementation of developmentprojects;and maintaininganationalsocioeconomiclibrary.
TheNationalMeteorologicalServiceisthefocalpointforclimatechangeinJamaica. TheMinistryofFinanceandthePublicService:TheMinistryofFinanceandthePublicServicehas responsibility for the macroeconomy which includes implementing tax related incentives/disincentivesforthedevelopmentofallsectorsincludingtheenergysector.TheInland RevenueDepartment maintainsthedatabasewithregistration information forthe licensedmotor vehiclefleet. The Forestry Department: The Forestry Department is an Executive Agency of the Ministry of AgricultureandistheleadagencyresponsibleforthemanagementandconservationofJamaicas forests.ItsfunctionsaremandatedbytheForestAct,1996,andareaimedatmanagingforestsona sustainablebasistomaintainandincreasetheenvironmentalservicesandeconomicbenefitsthat forests provide. A National Forest Conservation and Management Plan and the Strategic Forest Management Plan 2009138, among other things, describe the Departments policy and legal framework,forestmanagementconstraints,forestvalues,thecurrentstateofJamaicasforestsand establishgoalsandawiderangeofimplementationforestmanagementstrategiesandactivities. TheJamaicaBureauofStandards(BSJ):BSJisastatutorybodyestablishedbytheStandardsActof 1968. Its main functions are formulating, promoting and implementing standards for goods, services and processes. The Bureau develops and enforces technical regulations for those commodities and practices which affect health and safety. It is the agency that sets fuels specifications. The Government Electrical Inspectorate: The Government Electrical Inspectorate (GEI) is the governmentagencywithintheMinistryofIndustry,InvestmentandCommercewithresponsibility for certifying all electrical installations to ensure that they meet the required standards. GEI certificationisneededforallnewconstructions,forpremisesthathavebeenrewiredorwhichhave undergoneanykindofrenovation. 3.1.3 KeyPoliciesandLegislationRelatedtoImplementationofMitigationActions Vision 2030 Jamaica: National Development Plan provides the overarching context within which Jamaicasmitigationactivitieswilltakeplace.ItincludestwonationalstrategiesDevelopmeasures toadapttoclimatechangeandContributetotheefforttoreducetheglobalrateofclimatechange that specifically speak to the strategies and actions that Jamaica will employ to reduce its GHG emissionsto2030.Vision2030articulates,Mitigation,throughreducinggreenhousegasemissions, willbeaddressedthroughgreaterenergyconservation.EnergyconservationinJamaicawillputusin a winwin situation as it provides other substantial positive economic, social and environmental benefits.AsdescribedearlierinNationalOutcome10ofthePlan,energyconservationefforts,useof cleanertechnologiesanddevelopmentofalternateenergywillresultinlowerspendingonimported oil, less pollution and reduction in pollutionrelated illnesses. We will engage in reforestation to increase the amount of greenhouse gases removed from the atmosphere, provide improved watersheds and waterways and reduce landslides and soil erosion. These measures (energy
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conservationandreforestation),ifpursuedonaglobalscale,willmitigateandreducetheglobalrate ofclimatechange. NationalEnergyPolicy200930 InDecember2009,thegovernmenttabledaNationalEnergyPolicy200930inParliamentthatwill leadtowarddeveloping: A modern, efficient, diversified and environmentally sustainable energy sector providing affordableandaccessibleenergysupplieswithlongtermenergysecurityandsupportedby informed public behaviour on energy issues and an appropriate policy, regulatory and institutionalframework. Thisvisionwillberealizedbytranslatingthepolicyintostrategiesandspecificareasofaction,such as diversification of the countrys existing fuel sources, development of renewable sources of energy,biofuels,andwastetoenergyprogrammes,tonameafew.Thesestrategiesandactionsare beingadministeredthroughthecorporateandoperationalplansinarangeoforganizations,starting withtheMinistryofEnergyandMining(MEM)anditsagencies,andalsoincludingotherMinistries, agencies and departments such as those ministries with responsibilities for transport, agriculture, andenvironment. Thepolicyplacespriorityattentiononsevenkeyareas: 1. Security of energy supply through diversification of fuels as well as development of renewableenergysources; 2. Modernizingthecountrysenergyinfrastructure; 3. Developmentofrenewableenergysourcessuchassolarandhydro; 4. Energysecurityandefficiency; 5. Developmentofacomprehensivegovernance/regulatoryframework; 6. Enablinggovernmentministries,departmentsandagenciestobemodel/leaderfortherest ofsocietyintermsofenergymanagement;and 7. Ecoefficiencyinindustries. Each of these seven priority areas, when implemented, will reduce Jamaicas GHG emissions and they have been included in the scenarios in this mitigation assessment. Other policies to be developed that will also help in the reduction of GHG emissions include the Renewable Energy Policy, the Biofuels Policy, and the Energy Conservation and Efficiency Protocol (ECE) for the management and use of energy in the public sector. The ECE speaks to the operation of public sectorfacilitiesandentities. TheframeworkfortheimplementationoftheNationalEnergyPolicyispresentedinFigure3.4.
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Figure3.4:ImplementationFrameworkforJamaicasNationalEnergyPolicy
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The National Transport Policy9 drafted in 2007 is guided by the vision to create a sustainable, competitive,safe,accessible,andenvironmentallyfriendlytransportnetworkprovidingworldclass air,land,rail,andmarinefacilitiescontributingtoavibrantimport,exportandtransshipmenttrade for Jamaica and the world. The transport policy is designed to encourage energy conservation measures (e.g., efficient traffic management; car pooling; park and ride; use of clean fuels to minimize pollution; flexiwork hours and telecommuting; an efficient public/urban mass transit transport system; and use of nonmotorized transport) and promotion of vehicle and road maintenanceprogrammes.Supportinglegislationforuseofbiofuelswillbeputinplace. Thetransportpolicyalsowillencouragemoreefficientmodesoftransportsuchasbargesespecially for bulky materials like aggregates. The possibility of enhanced coastal and rail transport will be keptunderconstantreview.ThepolicyforeseesthatoncenaturalgasisintroducedintoJamaicas energysupplymix,thetransportfleets,whereapplicable,willbeconvertedtoCNG.Inthelonger term,aCNGsupplynetworkwillbedevelopedtoenableprivatemotoriststoconverttonaturalgas basedmotorvehicles. The Forestry Departments Strategic Forest Management Plan: 200913 will enable it to fulfil its missiontomanage,protectandconservethecountrysforestresources10.TheForestManagement Planspecificallyreferstothemandatetomaintainandmeasuretheroleofforestsascarbonsinks as part of Jamaicas commitments under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). ThedraftCarbonEmissionsTradingPolicy(2009)setsoutacomprehensiveframeworkforJamaicas participation in the carbon trading market. It presents the Governments positions, defines investment priorities, establishes the institutional and legal framework, and facilitates structures necessaryfortheeffectivemanagementoftheregimeinvolvingtheparticipationofallsectorsina manner that is mutually beneficial to all. The overarching objective is to position Jamaica to capitalize further on opportunities for partnerships with other developed countries, private organizations, as well as relevant regional or international institutions. This will generate social, economicandenvironmentalbenefitsforthecountrythroughinvestmentininitiativesthatwillalso fostersustainabledevelopmentgoals. OUR issued the Regulatory Policy for the Addition of New Generating Capacity to the Public ElectricitySupplySystemthatguidestheprocessfortheadditionofnewgeneratingcapacitytothe Jamaicanelectricitygrid.ThepolicyisacomplementtotheAllIslandElectricLicence,2001which gives JPS the exclusive right to transmit and distribute electricity and, as of 2004, the right to competewithotherelectricity producersfortheopportunitytodevelopnewgenerationcapacity. This OUR policy has accompanying schedulesthatdetail theprocedures bywhich capacity can be added to the system and it is intended to facilitate the long term expansion of generation at the least economic cost while giving due regard to the relevant policies and applicable legislation. Accordingtothepolicy,theadditionofnewcapacitytothegridcanbeachievedby: theinstallationofconventionaltechnologies, theutilizationofrenewablesources,and; thesettingupofcogenerationinstallations Thepolicywasdraftedaspartofthegovernmentsgoalofenablingnationalgovernmententitiesto become more efficient in their operations, generating significant cost savings while eliminating or minimizingadverseimpactsontheenvironment.Thepolicyspeakstoamongotherthings,energy SNCOFJAMAICA 166
conservation,waterconservation,andfleetmanagementaspectsofgovernmentoperationsthat haveanimpactontheoveralluseofenergy. Theagenciesandinstitutionsdescribedaboveallhaveenablinglegislationthatempowersthemto undertaketheirfunctions.Implementingthevariousmitigationmeasuresandassessingthecurrent andfuturemitigationoptionsrequiresinstitutionsandagencieswiththeinstitutionalandlegislative frameworksthatwillfacilitatetheconstructionandoperationofmitigationprojectsandactivitiesas well as the collection and analysis of relevant information that will monitor their implementation and assess new development possibilities. The legislation most important for the mitigation assessmentisdescribedbelow. TheElectricitySurveyAct(1956)allowsforthecollection,compilationandanalysisofinformation relating to the generation, distribution and use of electricity, and the quantities and types of electricalapparatusinuse. The Petroleum Quality Control Act includes regulations that require reporting of fuel sales information by petroleum marketing companies. Licences issued by OUR also have reporting requirements. The Natural Resources Conservation Authority Act (1991) provides for the management, conservation, and protection of Jamaicas natural resources. The Act establishes the Natural ResourcesConservationAuthority(NRCA),whosefunctionsincludethetakingofsuchstepsthatare necessarytoensuretheeffectivemanagementofthephysicalenvironmentofJamaica.Section9of the Act gives Ministerial discretion to declare parts of or the entire island a prescribed area, in which specified activities require a permit, and for which activities an environmental impact assessmentmayberequired.TheNaturalResourcesConservationAuthority(PermitsandLicences) Regulations(1996)setscategoriesofenterprisesthatwillrequireapermitfortheirdevelopmentor construction and the requirements for licences for those enterprises. The Natural Resources Conservation Authority (Air Quality) Regulations(2006) sets out the criteria that determine which facilities require a licence to discharge certain pollutants and prescribe discharge fees. The regulationsalsoincludearequirementthatlicenseesprovideannualemissionsreportsforemissions ofthesocalledregulatedpollutantsandgreenhousegases. 3.2MethodologicalApproach The LongRange Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) model11 was used for the mitigation assessment to examine the demand, transformation, resources, and nonenergy sector emissions and effects. LEAP is a scenariobased, energyenvironment modelling tool based on a comprehensiveaccountingofhowenergyisconsumed,convertedandproducedinagivenregionor economyunderarangeofalternativeassumptions. Thebaseyearusedintheanalysiswas2000thesameyearusedforcompilationofthenational GHG emission inventory. Historical data from 200008 wereused and projections were made for 2009 to 2035 for three groups of scenarios: the Reference Scenario, Scenario 2 and Scenario 3. Scenariosareselfconsistentstorylinesofhowafutureenergysystemmightevolveovertimeina particularsocioeconomicsettingandunderaparticularsetofpolicyoptionsdefinedforexampleby specific projects and measures. Scenarios in LEAP can be compared to assess their energy requirements,environmentalimpactsandsocialcostsandbenefits. SNCOFJAMAICA
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TheinputdatafortheLEAPmodelaregroupedintofivecategories: 1. Keyassumptions,i.e.,macroeconomic,demographicandothertimeseriesvariablesusedin othercategories; 2. Demand:Overallenergyconsumptionofhouseholds,industry,government,roadtransport, andvariousJPSelectricitycustomerrateclasses; 3. Transformation, i.e., petroleum refining, electricity distribution and generation, charcoal production; 4. Resources:indigenousenergyresources;and 5. Nonenergy sector effects, i.e., GHG emissions from cement and lime manufacturing, GHG emissionsfromagriculture,forestryandindustry. DetaileddatawasobtainedforthesubcategorieslistedinTable3.4.Additionalinformationabout thesesubcategoriesfollows. Table3.4:LEAPModelInputData KeyAssumptions Population HouseholdSize GDPinJ2003$ Populationgrowthrate Householdsize GDPGrowthRate TransportationEmissionfactors(for11pollutantsin8vehicleclasses) Demand Household(Refrigeration,Lighting,Cooking,Fans,Stereo,Airconditioners, Computerequipment,Washingmachines,Clothesironing,Television,All other Industry(Cement&Clinker,cementmills,Bauxitemining#,BayerProcess, AluminaKilns,Limekilns,Sugar) Government(Hospitals,NWC,OtherGovernment) Municipal(Rate60) Rate20,Rate40A##,Rate50 RoadTransport(8vehicleclasses) Commercialcharcoal Transformation Transmission&Distribution OilRefining ElectricityGeneration Charcoalmaking Coalgasification Natural Primary(Wind,Hydro,Wood,Bagasse,MunicipalWaste,Peat) Resources Secondary(Outputfuels) NonEnergy Landfillemissions SectorEffects Agriculture(Animals,Soils,RiceProduction,Forestry) Industry(Limekilns,Cement,PetCokelimestone)
#Bauxiteminingincludesrailtransportation ##Rate40Adefinedtoavoiddoublecountingseetext
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3.2.1 LEAPModelInformationSources KeyAssumptions This module contains macroeconomic (GDP and GDP growth rate), demographic (population, population growth rate, household size) and other timeseries variables (for example, emission factorsfortheonroadfleet)thatareusedintheothermodules. Historical and projected GDP data were obtained from the PIOJ and Bank of Jamaica publications (see footnotes in Tables 3.2 and 3.3). The population and number of households data were obtainedorderivedfrominformationpublishedbySTATINandintheannualEconomicandSocial SurveyJamaica(ESSJ)reportsorBankofJamaicaReports.Emissionfactorsforpollutantsemittedby variousvehicleclasseswereobtainedfromoutputsofatransportationmodel(MOBILE6). Demand The demand module requires activity and energy intensity data such that the product of the two gives the energy consumption. The demand module was broken down into various branches namely, household, industry, government, road transport, and various electricity customer rate classesusedbyJPS.Thesebrancheswereselectedbecausefuelandelectricityenduseandother activitydataareavailableforthemand/orsubcategorieswithinthem.Themethodologiesapplied for the various demand branches are described below. Additional details for future activity and energyintensityinformationareprovidedinthefollowingsectiononscenarios. Households The 2001 census12 and Jamaica Survey of Living Conditions (JSLC) 200713 provided detailed household (residential) data for the numbers of households that have or use various types of household amenities or appliances. Appliances with small penetration (i.e., low percentages of households have them) and/or low annual energy use or little prospect for increased penetration were grouped under All other. Additional household data were also obtained from a recent surveyofresidentialenergyenduse14. Since the available residential (JPS Rate 10) electricity consumption data are for customers (not households), it was assumed that the percentages of households with the various amenities and appliances were the same as the percentages of customers with them. The best fit relationship betweentheratioofcustomerstohouseholdsthatheldbetween2000and2008wasassumedto apply out to 2035 but with manual adjustments for 2009 and 2010. Load shape information was takenintoaccountinmodellingthehouseholdelectricityuse. Energy intensity data for residential (household) appliances (i.e., average annual electricity consumption for various appliances) used in Jamaica are not available and so US and Canadian energyintensitydatawereusedasastartingpoint.Thesedatawereadjustedtomatchelectricity consumption over the current account period (200008). Energy intensity (and activity i.e., percentageofhouseholdswithcompactfluorescentbulbs)dataforlightingwerebasedonthedata available from the distribution of the bulbs15. Data for the average annual household fuel consumptionusedforcookingandlightingwereobtainedfromdataprovidedbyMEM. SNCOFJAMAICA
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Industry Sectoral fuel use information is compiled by MEM and is available for the bauxite and alumina sector,cement,sugarandothermanufacturing.MEMprovidedthesesectoralfuelconsumption data for 200008. More detailed energy end use and production data were obtained from the JamaicaBauxiteInstitute(JBI),CaribbeanCementCompanyLimited(CCCL),andtheSugarResearch Institute(SIRI).Althoughinitiativesareunderwaytoprivatisesugarestatesandfactoriesownedby the government (SugarCompanyofJamaica), no data were availableforprojectedproduction for thesugarindustry.Futureproductionwasassumedtoremainatthe2008levels.Energyintensity assumptionsforindustryaredescribedinthefollowingsectiononscenarios. Transportation Estimates of fuel consumption and hence GHG emissions from the road transport sector require datafortheannualdistancetravelled(vehiclekilometrestravelledorVKMT)andtheemissionsper kilometrefortheonroadfleetwhichisbrokendownintovariousvehicleclasses.Theformerare theactivitydataandthelattertheenergyintensity(sometimescalledemissionfactors). DatafortheentirefleetwereobtainedfromInlandRevenueanddataforsubsetsofthefleetwere obtained from the Transport Authority, Jamaica Urban Transit Company (JUTC) and Montego Bay Metro (MBM). The vehicle emission rates were estimated for various vehicle classes (based on vehicle weight and fuel) using an US EPA model (MOBILE616). This model uses detailed fleet information (including the age (model year), weight, fuel type, emission control technology) to estimateemissionrates(ing/mileorg/km)fortailpipe,evaporativeandroademissionsforeachof upto26vehicleweight/fuelclasses.TheMOBILE6emissionratesforthe26vehicleclasseswere consolidatedintoratesfor8vehicleclasseswhichwerethenusedintheLEAPmodeltogetherwith estimated projections for the vehicle fleet. Future fleet data were estimated based on assumed levelsofvehicleimportsusinghistoricalimportdataasaguide. Emissions from aircraft and marine vessels were based on data compiled in the GHG emissions inventoryforJamaica17.Aircraftemissionsarethosethatoccurduringlandingandtakeoff(LTO)and during flights that originate and end entirely within Jamaica. LTO emissions for 200005 were estimatedintheGHGemissionsinventory4andprojectedemissionswerebasedonthegrowthinair andmarinetraffic.TheAirportAuthorityofJamaica(AAJ)providedsomeairtransportrelateddata. Similarly,marineemissionsarethosethatoccurwhenvesselsplyinJamaicanwaters.Fueldelivered for international flights (aviation bunkers) and international shipping (marine bunkers) are not included in emissions estimates. Limited fuel use data were available for domestic marine travel andthissubbranchwasnotincludedseparately.Thefuelconsumptionfordomesticmarinetravel issmallandwouldbeincludedinotherbranches. Government Since data for fuel and electricity consumption by government agencies are available, the Governmentbranch was included. Electricity consumption and fuel use data were obtained from theMEMandfromNationalWaterCommission(NWC)annualreports.Thegovernmentsectorwas broken down into NWC, hospitals and other government since, for the first two branches especially, extensive audit data are available and mitigation proposals for hospitals (fuel end SNCOFJAMAICA
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electricityconservation)andNWCareplanned.Thehospitalaudits18includedseveralgroupingsof energy conservation measures which were grouped together to define mitigation measures for scenariosthatweredeveloped. OtherElectricityBranches ElectricityconsumptioninformationisavailablefortherateclassesusedbyJPS(Rates20,40and50 and 60and Other)andsothese rate classes wereusedinthemitigationassessment. Care was taken to avoid double counting where separate electricity consumption data were available (e.g., cement, petroleum refining, NWC, government). The recent JPS Rate Application19 and ESSJ publicationsprovideddataonthenumbersofcustomersineachrateclass,theloadshapeandthe annual electricity use for all rate classes. Week day/weekend load shape information for all rate classesavailableintheJPSRateapplicationwasusedinmodellingtheelectricitydemand. The disposal of electricity in 2008 (percentages of total GWh for various rate classes, losses and company use) is shown in Figure 3.5. The numbers in parentheses after the rate classes are the numbers of customers in the rate class. The Rate 40 and Rate 50 customers accounted for 33.3 percentofthetotalelectricitydisposalwithonly1680customers:thisiscomparedtotheresidential rateclass(Rate10)whichaccountedfor25.8percentoftheelectricitydisposal. Figure3.5:DisposalofElectricityin2008
Companyuse 0.31% Other(3) 0.66% Rate60(198) 1.62%
Lossesetc. 23.33%
Residential(523728) 25.82% Rate50(126) 14.27%
Rate20(60530) 15.19% Rate40(1554) 18.79%
Unfortunately, information on the types of equipment (or other information such as a Jamaica industrialclassificationcode)usedbytheRate40andRate50customers,whichcouldallowsimilar analysis to that for the residential customers, is not available. Information and data on recently completed and planned energy conservation measures for one Rate 50 customer (UWI) was provided and it illustrated the potential for energy conservation (mitigation). However, as UWI mightnotberepresentativeoftheaverageRate50customer,lessaggressivemitigationmeasures wereappliedforthesecustomers.
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Transformation The transformation module comprises petroleum refining, electricity distribution and generation, charcoal production and coal gasification branches. Electricity transmission and generation data wereobtainedprimarilyfromthepubliclyavailableMarch2009JPS200914TariffRateApplication thatwasavailableonthewebsiteoftheOfficeofUtilityRegulation(OUR)andfromhistoricalJPS reportsprovidedbyOUR.PetrojamprovideddatafortheRefineryandcharcoaldatawerederived from ESSJ and MEM reports. Coal gasification was included since syngas from gasified coal is an optionforuseinaluminakilns.Additionaldetailsonthetransformationareprovidedinthesection onscenarios. Resources Indigenousenergyresourcesarelimitedtohydropower;solar,wind,biomass(bagasse,fuelwood, charcoal)andpeat,sincetherearenoknownpetroleumorcoalresources. Hydropower: There are currently (2008) 23.1 megawatts (MW) of installed hydropower at eight locations.Additionalhydropowergenerationcapacityisplanned. Biomass: Bagasse, which is a fibre residue from sugar cane milling, is the largest indigenous renewableenergyresource.Currentuseinboilersatsugarfactoriesisnotoptimalduetoirregular or insufficient cane supply and inefficient boiler equipment at the majority of sugar factories. Additionalutilisationofbiomassisplanned. FirewoodandCharcoal:Charcoalandfuelwoodareusedprimarilyintheresidentialsectorasfuel for cooking. There is also commercial use of charcoal for cooking especially in roadside establishments.Fuelwood(bambooandacacia,leucaenea)hasbeenusedatonesugarfactoryand alsoatonelimekiln.Exceptforfuelwooduseinthesugarindustry,theestimatesoffuelwoodand charcoalusearesubjecttolargeuncertainties. Biogas: Generation of biogas from agricultural and farming operationshas been limited. In 2000, there were about 120 biogas generators based on agricultural wastes (e.g., pig or chicken farm wastes)ordomesticsewage.Theenergysuppliedbyeachofthesesystemswasabout37GJ/year basedongasproductionof4.5m3/day(65%methane).Manyoftheresidentialownersofbiogasuse thesystemforalloftheirenergy(cooking,refrigerationandlighting)needs.Theoverallpotential forbiogasproductioninJamaicahasbeenestimatedat20millionm3/year(equivalentto75,000bbl oil).Thepotentialforfurtherexploitationofbiogasisattractiveespeciallyinremote/lowpopulation densityareaswherecostsforelectricitytransmissionlinesarenotcosteffective. Peat:TherearelimitedamountsofpeatlocatedneartheNegrilandBlackRiverareas.Estimatesof deposits are approximately 20 million metric tonnes, but exploitation of peat resources has been ruledoutprimarilybecauseoftheadverseenvironmentalimpactssincethedepositsarelocatedin areasthatareecologicallysensitiveandaredependentontourism. Wind: As of 2008, there was a 20 MW facility at Wigton and a 0.225 MW windturbine at Munro College. Additional wind farms are planned but additional mapping is to be undertaken to help determinetheadditionalpotentialforwindenergy[totalwindenergypotentialisestimatedat45 70MW]20. SNCOFJAMAICA
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Solar: Given Jamaicas tropical location, solar energy potential for a wide range of applications is excellent. There is limited use of solar crop drying or water heating, but additional solar water heating systems are planned for hospitals. Expanded use of solar water heating, for example in hotels, would reduce the need for energy derived from fossil fuel combustion. As of 2009, there wasnotanyconsiderationinJamaicaofsolartechnologiesforsolarcoolingorpowergeneration. Other Alternate Energy Sources: Currently there are very limited applications of photovoltaic (PV) systemsbutadditionalPVsystemsarecontemplated.ThesitingofademonstrationOceanThermal Energy Conversion (OTEC) plant to produce electricity (e.g., a 15 MW plant) has been under investigation for some time, but the prospects do not warrant including OTEC as a source of electricityinanyscenario.Awastetoenergyprojectiscontemplated. NonEnergySectorEffects ThenonenergysectoreffectsincludedwereCO2emissionsfromcementandlimemanufactureand fromproposedelectricitygenerationusingPetroleumcoke.OtherGHGemissionsfromagriculture, forestryandindustrywerebasedonprojectionsfromthe200005GHGemissionsinventoryexcept in cases wheredata from specific projects were available. These included rice farming, reduction iondeforestationrates,andreplacementofHFCrefrigerantsbyhydrocarbonrefrigerants. 3.2.2Scenarios ThreescenariosweredevelopedtoprojectemissionsaReferenceScenario(Ref)andScenarios2 (S2)and3(S3)whichwerecharacterisedprimarilybydifferentratesofgrowthforthepopulation andGDP. TheReferenceScenarioislinkedtotheVision2030GDPandpopulationgrowthtargets,anddoes notincludeanyinitiativestomitigateGHGemissions.TheReferenceScenarioassumesthattwoof three alumina refineries that closed in 2009 (Alumina Partners and Windalco Ewarton) would reopen and that there would be continued use of oil at alumina plants. It also assumes that the PetrojamRefineryUpgradewouldbecompletedin2014andwouldprovidelowsulphurdieseland gasolineforthevehiclefleetandpetcokefora100MWplantatHuntsBay.Finally,theReference ScenarioalsoassumestheuseofcoalatthenewoldHarbourpowerstation. S2andS3assumeprogressivelyhigherGDPgrowthratesbutlowerpopulationgrowthrates.Both S2andS3includemitigationoptions.ForS2andS3,therearechoicesforfuels(coal,heavyfueloil, dieseloil, naturalgas, andgasified coal (Syngas)thatcanbeused forthe variousprocesses.Also includedinS3isanoptionfortheuseofnuclearpowerasnotedintheenergypolicy.Futureenergy intensity data usedinscenariosS2 andS3 werebased on existing andproposedvoluntary energy standardsfortheappliancesusedintheUSand/orCanadianEnergyStarprograms,butwithlater implementationorpenetrationforJamaica.Importdataforvariousappliancesandthetypicaland maximum lifetimes of appliances together with policy initiatives were taken into consideration in estimatingthepenetrationofenergyefficientappliancesinscenariosS2andS3. ThefuelchoicesforvariousdemandandtransformationprocessesareindicatedinTable3.5.
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Table3.5:FuelChoicesforVariousDemandandTransformationProcesses Process HFO Diesel Coal Natural Syngas Nuclear Gas # Bayerprocessboilersandlimekilns(Bayer/Lime kilns),newsteamboilers Slow/Mediumspeeddieselengines Aluminakilns Gasturbines Boilersatexistingsteamfiredelectricity generatingstations
#
consideredonlyasanoptioninScenario3seetext
The feasiblecombinations ofprocessesand fuelsledtotheoptions withinScenarios2 and3(see Table3.6)sincethepossiblecombinationsarelimitedbythefollowingconditionsandassumptions: Onceintroduced,coalornaturalgasisusedinallpossibleprocessesexceptasnotedbelow; Aluminakilnsmaynotusecoal(hencetheuseofsyngasfromgasifiedcoal).Syngaswould beintroducedatAlpartandWindalcoin2015andatJamalcoin2013; Existingheavyfueloilfiredboilersandslowspeedenginesatelectricitygeneratingstations wouldberetrofittedtoburnnaturalgas; Bayerprocessboilerswouldburnoilupto2013andbeupgraded/retrofittedtousenatural gasorcoalafter2013(coalorgasatWindalcoin2015;coalatAlpartin2015); Existingandnewmedium/slowspeedenginesretrofittedcouldusenaturalgas; Thenewaluminaplant(Scenario3only)woulduseeithernaturalgasorcoalwithgasified coalinthealuminakiln; Included are coal or natural gas fired power generation at somealumina plants and/or at thecementcompany; The addition of a nuclear power (in the event that nuclear power generation becomes economicallyandotherwise(e.g.,humanresource,logisticsetc.)feasibleisincludedasan optionthatentailstheuseofnaturalgasforotherpurposes(althoughitcouldbecombined withotherfuelsusedelsewhere);and Whennaturalgasisavailable,itwouldbeusedinsomeofthevehiclefleet. Highlights of the process and fuel combinations are indicated in Table 3.6. Note that although a scenario(designatedasS2OilinTable3.6)thatwouldentailcontinuedexclusiveuseofoil(similar to the reference scenario) is possible, it would not sufficiently diversify the fuel supply and also wouldnotbeeconomicallyviableforthebauxite,aluminaandpowergenerationsectors.Because ofthesefactors,thescenariooptionS2Oilwasnotincludedinthemitigationassessment.
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Table3.6:ProcessandFuelCombinationsforPotentialScenarioOptions Scenario Bayer/LimeKilns/ SlowSpeed AlKilnsExisting/ GasTurbines NewSteam Engine New# Existing/New ReferenceScenario Ref Currentuse Currentuse Currentuse Currentuse Scenario2Options S2 Coal HFO/HFO HFO Dieseloil Jamalco2013 Alpart2015 Windalco2015 JPSOldHarbour S2Oil HFO HFO HFO Dieseloil S2SYN Coal HFO SyngasRetrofit Dieseloil Jamalco2013 Jamalco2013 Alpart2015 Alpart2015 Windalco2015 Windalco2015 S2NG NG NGretrofit/NG NGretrofit NG Jamalco2013 Jamalco2013 JPS(Except Alpart2013 Alpart2013 HuntsBay) Windalco2015 Windalco2015 JPS(ExceptHunts Bay) Scenario3Options S3 Coal HFO HFO/Syngas Dieseloil Jamalco2013 Alpart2015 Windalco2015 JPSOldHarbour S3SYN Coal HFO Syngas Dieseloil Jamalco2013 Retrofit/Syngas Alpart2015 Jamalco2013 Windalco2015 Alpart2015 Windalco2015 S3NG NG NGretrofit/NG HFO/Syngas NG Jamalco2013 Alpart2013 Windalco2015 JPS(ExceptHunts Bay) S3NGNU Coal NGretrofit/NG HFO/Syngas NG Jamalco2013 Alpart2015 Windalco2015 JPSOldHarbour Nuclearafter2020
#
Existing SteamPlants
Currentuse HFO
HFO HFO
HFO
HFO
HFO
HFO
HFO
Note:NewaluminakilnonS3only
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Highlightsofthemainscenarios ReferenceScenario(Ref) Onlyoneoptionwasconsiderednamelythecontinueduseoffuelsinallexistingprocesses.This scenarioalsoassumescompletionofthePetrojamRefineryupgradein2014 andthatlowsulphur gasolineanddieselwillbeavailablefortheonroadvehiclefleet. AlthoughtheReferenceScenariodoesnotincludeanymitigationmeasuresbeyondthosethatare currentlyinplace,theupgradingofthePetrojamrefineryandthereopeningoftwoaluminaplants havebeenincludedthatimplycertainmitigationmeasuresasfollows: Therefineryupgradewillentailprovisionoflowsulphurdieselandgasolinewhichwill affecttheemissionratesforvehicles. The reopening of the Alpart plant is assumed to entail improvement in the energy efficiencyoftheBayerprocess.(Additionalimprovementsinenergyefficiencyofthe BayerprocessatallaluminaplantsareindicatedinScenarios2and3.) The construction of a new kiln and cement mills at the cement company resulted in significantenergyintensityimprovements.Inallscenariositwasassumedthatkiln4 which was closed in 2008 would reopen with improved energy efficiency in 2011. Because of this further energy intensity improvements for the cement industry are negligible. Scenario2(S2) S2 assumes a lower population growth rate and higher GDP growth rate than the Reference Scenario.Italsoincludesaddedaluminaproductioncapacity.ThemainoptiondesignatedasS2has coalasthefuelfortheBayerprocesses,limekilns,andanewcoalfiredstationatOldHarbour,and nonaturalgas.Themainmitigationoptioninthisscenario(designatedasS2NG)entailstheuseof compressednaturalgasfortheBayerprocess(insteadofoilinthereferencescenario),limekilns, andelectricitygenerationattheBoguegeneratingstation(insteadofdiesel),andforthenewOld Harbour generating station (300 MW) (instead of coal). Existing slow or medium speed diesel engines currently using heavy fuel oil would be retrofitted to use natural gas. Other mitigation measures include Bayer process energy efficiency improvements, the use of more efficient householdappliances(lighting,refrigerators),useofcompressednaturalgasinsomeofthevehicle fleetandimprovedenergyefficiencyinthegovernmentsector(hospitals,NWCandtheremainder ofthegovernmentsector).Althoughthemitigationmeasuresinthegovernmentsectoraresmall relativetothetotaldemand,thereductionshavebeendemonstratedtobecosteffective.Thesame istrueoflightingandairconditioninginitiativesatUWI. Scenario3(S3) S3assumesalowerpopulationgrowth(andhencelowerhouseholdelectricitydemand)andahigher GDPgrowthratethanforS2andamorerapiddecreaseinthenumberofpersonsperhousehold.S3 includesalloftheS2andS2NGinitiativesaswellasadditionalenergyintensityreductionsattwo aluminaplants.Themitigationmeasures,however,areoffsetbytheincreasedenergyrequirements andemissionsfromtheproposedadditionofanewaluminaplant.Theintroductionofadditional hydrogenerationcapacitywouldcontributetoloweremissions.Anoptionentailingnuclearpower
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along with natural gas is included. Under this option, the nuclear power plant would be added insteadofpowerstationsatbauxitealuminaplantsorthecementcompany. Someofthemainfeaturesofthescenariosarehighlightedbelow.Moredetailedsummariesofthe scenarios are provided in Appendices 3.1 and 3.2. Most, if not all, of the mitigation activities and projects for the addition of generation capacity were based on a detailed list of energy related policies,measures,andprojectscompiledbyMEM(Appendix3.3). KeyParameters FortheReferenceScenario,theGDPgrowthratesandpopulationprojectionsarethesameasthose includedinVision2030Jamaica. TheGDPgrowthratefortheReferenceScenariowasassumedtoincreaseto4percentby2015and remainconstantat4percentupto2035.ForS2andS3respectively,GDPgrowthisassumedtobe thesameastheReferenceScenarioupto2015andthereafterincreaseto4.5percentand5percent in2035. PopulationgrowthratesarebasedontheachievementoftargetssetinthePopulationSectorPlan underVision2030Jamaica(0.25%and0%forS2andS3respectively).Householdsizewasassumed todeclinefrom3.33in2008to3.20in2015to3.15in2035(S2)orto3.20in2015thento3.10in 2035 (3). The number of households, as determined by population growth and household size, largelydeterminedhouseholddemand. Demand Growth rates in electricity consumption from 200914 were estimated in the JPS rate application andusedinallscenarios.After2014,increasinglyoptimisticgrowthrateswereused. For the bauxite and alumina sector, it was assumed that two plants that closed in 2009 would reopen in 2012 in all scenarios. The introduction of natural gas was assumed only to occur in S2 togetherwithcapacityexpansionsatEwartonandJamalco.S3wouldseetheintroductionofanew alumina plant in 2015. Bauxite mining, kiln drying, and lime production were linked to alumina production.Energyuseforbauxiteminingincludedrailtransportationsincedatawerenotalways reliablydisaggregatedtodelineatefuelusedforrailtransportation(whichisusedonlyinthebauxite alumina sector) from the fuel used for other bauxite and limestone mining activities. Cement production was assumed to increase as a percentage of the GDP growth rate (i.e., 30% for Reference,35%forS2and45%forS3). Activity data for transport (vehicle fleet) were based on assumptions for the growth and age distributionofthefleet.Variousapproacheswereconsideredinmakingestimatesofthegrowthin thevehiclefleet.From200008,thepercentageofhouseholdsowningvehiclesincreasedfrom15.0 percent to 20.3 percent in 2006 and then decreased somewhat to 19.3 percent in 2007. The numberofmotorcarsin2000,2005,and2008wererespectively270,005,355,091and408,264an averageannualincreaseof6.3percentbetween2000and2005and5percentbetween2005and 2008.Thesetrendsillustratehowchallengingitistoestimatethefuturegrowthinthevehiclefleet, especially when compounded by the volatility in the prices of gasoline and vehicles as a result of
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devaluationoftheJamaicandollarandtheglobalincreaseinfuelpricesaswellaslikelychangesin consumerpreferences(e.g.,switchfromSUVstosmaller,morefuelefficientvehicles). Intheabsenceofmoredefinitiveprojections,itwasassumedthatthefleetwouldcontinuetogrow based on the trends from 200008. The annual vehicle sales for each vehicle weight class were assumedtobeinthesameproportionastheweightclassdistributionforthefleetin2008. Transformation HistoricaldataonlossesinelectricitydistributionandJPSprojectionsfrom200914forreductionin theselosseswereusedinallscenarios.Inallscenarios,theupgradingofthePetrojamrefinerywas assumed. The own use energy and the slate of products after the upgrade were provided by Petrojam.Electricitygenerationprojectionswerebasedoncharacteristicsofindividualthermaland wind units and on collective hydro generating stations. Additions and retirements of generating capacity werebasedon theadditionof individualunits. Projectionsfrom200914 inallscenarios werebasedonthechangesindicatedintherecentJPSrateapplication. After2014,thereferencescenarioassumedcoalandPetCokeasthefuelsusedforaddedcapacity, togetherwithwindstationstomeetthegoalsintheEnergyPolicy.CompressedNaturalGasasa fuelwasassumedinS2andS3andanuclearoptionwasincludedinScenario3. Coal gasification and charcoal conversion data were obtained from the literature21. Historical charcoal production data are notoriously subject to considerable uncertainty. The historical charcoal consumption data between 200005 were adjusted downwards based on estimates of residentialcharcoalusederivedfromthepercentageofhouseholdsusingcharcoalforcookingand estimatesoftheenergyrequiredforcookingandanarbitraryestimateoftheamountofcharcoal used in commercial activities. These estimates were equivalent to wood removal rates about 30 percenthigherthanthoseusedintheGHGinventory.Thiscorrespondsto0.13percentofdisturbed forestversus0.1percentofdisturbedforestintheGHGinventory.Itmustbestressedthatthese estimates are also subject to uncertainty and point to the need for better estimates for charcoal productionandconsumption. 3.3.3Results
LEAPallowspresentationoftheemissionseithera)wheretheyoccur(i.e.,demand,transformation and nonenergy sector effects) or b) by allocating the emissions in the transformation categories backtothedemandsource.Thesecondapproachprovidesthesocalledfinalenergydemand(or final environmental loadings). The nonenergy sector emissions are those associated with the chemicaltransformationoflimestoneintolime(whichreleasesCO2)orinlandfillemissions(releases CH4andCO2)orinthereleaseofCO2,CH4andN2Ofromtheagricultureandforestrysectors. Thepresentationoftheenvironmentalloadingsforallthreescenarioprojectionsinthisassessment includes the current account period (200008) so that comparisons can be made with the GHG emissionsinventoryand/orenergyconsumptionoverthisperiod.
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EnergyBalance LEAPsoutputsincludeannualenergybalances.Theresultsfor2000and2008areshowninFigures 3.6and3.7. Figure3.6:EnergyBalanceforJamaica(2000)

Figure3.7:EnergyBalanceforJamaica(2008)
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FinalEnergyDemand(EnvironmentalLoadings)
ThefinalenvironmentalloadingsofCO2,N2OandCH4forallscenariosareshowninFigures3.8to 3.10.Themoststrikingelementofallscenarioprojectionsisthedecreaseinemissionsfrom2009 11.Thisisduetotheclosureofthreealuminaplantsinthefirstquarterof2009andthe(assumed) reopeningoftwoofthoseplantsin2011withfullproductionachievedin2012. Figure3.8:FinalEnvironmentalLoadingforCO2forJamaica,AllScenarios(200935) Figure3.9:FinalEnvironmentalLoadingforN2OforJamaica,AllScenarios(200935) SNCOFJAMAICA
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Figure3.10:FinalEnvironmentalLoadingforCH4forJamaica,AllScenarios(200935) ForCH4andN2O,theReferencescenarioemissionsaregenerallylowestduetothelowproduction levelsrelativetotheotherscenarios.TheS3emissionsarethehighestbecauseoftheuseofcoal wherefeasible;theemissionfactorsfor coal arehigherthanforoilornatural gas. Inthecase of CO2,thepatternissimilarexceptthattheuseofnaturalgasinS2NGresultsinCO2emissionsthat areslightlylowerthantheReferencescenario. TheS3NG andS2NGemissionsareconsistently lowerthanthecorresponding S3or S3 emissions and reflect the lower emission factors when natural gas is used (compared with coal or coal and syngasinaluminakilns). ThecombinedenergyandnonenergyCO2emissionsareshowninFigure3.11whilethenonenergy CO2emissionsaloneareshowninFigure3.12.Thelatterfigureillustratestheimpactoftheuseof petcokestartingin2013.Useofpetcokeforpowergenerationentailsusinglimestonetoremove SO2andthatprocesswillreleaseadditionalCO2fromthelimestone.
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Figure3.11:
FinalEnvironmentalLoadingforCO2(BiogenicandNonBiogenic)forJamaica,All Scenarios(200935)
Figure3.12:
FinalEnvironmentalLoadingforCO2fromNonEnergySectorEffectsforJamaica (200935)
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The most dramatic effect of the use of natural gas is seen in the SO2 emissions for the various scenarios.Figure3.13showsSO2emissionsfromdemandsourceswhileFigure3.14showsforSO2 emissions from all transformation sources, that is, oil refining, electricity generation, charcoal makingandcoalgasification.TheS2NG,S3NGandS3NGUemissionsareconsiderablylowerthan thecorrespondingS2orS2Coal/SyngasandS3andS3Coal/Syngasemissions. Figure3.13:FinalEnvironmentalLoadingforSO2fromDemandSourcesforJamaica(200935)
Figure3.14:
FinalEnvironmentalLoadingforSO2fromTransformationSourcesforJamaica (200935)
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The final energy demand for all scenarios is shown in Figure 3.15. As with the environmental loadings,themoststrikingfeatureisthedramaticdeclinesinenergydemandin2009through2012 asaconsequenceofaluminaplantclosures.Thefinalenergydemandisnotverydependentonthe choiceoffuelintheS2andS3scenariooptionsandthedemandforS2optionsaregroupedtogether lowerthanthegroupingfortheS3options.ThelargeincreaseinenergydemandintheS3optionsis duemainlytothenewaluminaplantwhichisincludedonlyinS3optionsandtolesserextentson lower population growth (but this is mediated by lower persons/household) and the associated demandsforelectricityandontheincreaseincementproduction. Figure3.15:FinalEnergyDemandProjectionsforJamaica,AllScenarios(200935)
EnergyTransformationProjections Transformation includes electricity generation, petroleum refining, coal gasification and charcoal production. No change in petroleum refining capacity after the Petrojam refinery upgrade is anticipated although the refinery will be able to vary the output to meet demands. The data for charcoal production are uncertain and it is expected that demand for charcoal will fall as fewer householdsusecharcoalanditsuseisdiscouraged. The changes in total electrical generating capacity in all scenarios to meet energy demands are showninFigure3.16notingthataddedcapacitywasnotoptimised. Gasificationoutputswillbeusedonlytomeetthedemandsforcalciningaluminaonlywhencoalis usedintheBayerprocess.Thegasificationrequirementsforallscenarios(S2SYNandS3SYN)are showninFigure3.17. SNCOFJAMAICA
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Figure3.16:
ElectricityGeneratingCapacitiesforJamaica,AllScenarios(200935)
Figure3.17:
CoalGasificationRequirementProjectionsforJamaica,AllScenarios(200935)
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DetailedAnalysisofEnvironmentalLoadingsandEnergyDemands The environmental loadings and energy demands for selected demand, transformation, and non energysubsectorsaredescribedfurthertoillustratetheimpactsofvariousprojectsandmitigation measures.Theenvironmentalloadingsrefertowheretheyoccur(sincethetransformationloadings willbepresentedseparately)andfocusonCO2,sincenearlyallmitigationmeasuresaredirectedat energy conservation or fuel substitution which directly affect CO2 emissions and their impact on otherpollutants(exceptforSO2)islessdramatic. Theexamplesselectedforillustrationarethosewheretherearesignificantmitigationmeasuresin scenariosS2andS3.Hence,cementandsugarmanufacturingandtheOtherManufacturingareas whichhavenosignificantmitigationmeasuresarenotincluded.Inthecaseofthesugarindustry, theexclusion is based not onthe need or opportunity for mitigation measures, but ratheronthe lackofinformation.Significantmitigationmeasureshavealreadybeenimplementedbythecement industryandarethusincludedintheReferencescenario.Hence,therearenominalcementindustry relatedchangesinS2andS3scenariosthatcanbeattributedtomitigation. Industrial Theindustrialsectorsconsideredwere: Bayerprocessing; Aluminakilns; Bauxitemining; Limekilns. TheCO2emissionsforallscenariosfortheseactivitiesareshowninFigures3.18to3.21.Inallcases theemissionsaredictatedbythealuminaproductionlevelsbuttheimpactsofusingnaturalgasare evident in S2NG and S3NG relative to S2 and S3 (which respectively have the same alumina production levels but use coal). Since there are no fuel choices for bauxite mining, the CO2 emissionsaredeterminedonlybythealuminaproductionlevels(whicharedirectlyrelatedtothe amountofbauxitemined).
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Figure3.18:
CO2EmissionsfromBayerProcessforJamaica,AllScenarios(200935)
Figure3.19:
CO2EmissionsfromAluminaKilnsforJamaica,AllScenarios(200935)
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Figure3.20:
CO2EmissionsfromLimeKilnsforJamaica,AllScenarios(200935)
Figure3.21:
CO2EmissionsfromBauxiteMiningforJamaica,AllScenarios(200935)
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Transport Thetransportsectorsconsideredwere: Rail; Aircraft;and Onroadandoffroadtraffic. Rail: Jamaicas rail traffic is limited to freight movement by the bauxite and alumina industry. Bauxiteisshippedbyrailtosomealuminaplantsfromtransferpointsnearbauxitemines.Aluminais shippedfromthealuminarefineriestoportsandfuel,causticandothermaterialsareshippedfrom theporttotherefineries.Dataforfueluseforrailactivitieshasnotbeenconsistentlycompiledand hencetheestimatesforrailhavebeenaggregatedwithdieselfuelusefortheBayerprocess. Aircraft:Aircraftemissionsinthe200005nationalGHGinventorywerebasedondetailedanalysis oflandingandtakeoff(LTO)emissionsattheinternationalanddomesticaerodromesandcruising emissions during intraisland flights. The LTO emissions were based on modelling using the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Emissions Dispersion Modelling System (EDMS) model and cruising emissions were based on emission factors available in EDMS and US EPA AP4222. Projections of aircraft emissions were based on projections of air traffic movements at the two internationalairportsthatarecontainedinJamaicasMasterPlans(to2022)fortheairports(Figure 3.22).Asnotedearlier,theReferenceScenarioassumesa5percentgrowthinLTOsto2035,witha 7percentand9percentgrowthforS2andS3respectively. Figure3.22: DomesticAircraftCO2EmissionsforJamaica,AllScenarios(200935)
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OnRoad and OffRoad Traffic: Fuel consumption (gasoline, diesel and lubricants) by the onroad fleetaccountedforabout23percentofJamaicasenergyconsumptionin2008.Itisthereforecritical to obtain reliable estimates of projected fuel consumption and GHG emissions for the mitigation scenarios.TheenergyconsumptionandGHGemissionsofonroadvehiclesaredetermined(inter alia) by the vehicle weight age (model year) and fuel type. Data for the entire fleet of licensed vehicleswereobtainedinordertodeterminethenumbersofvehiclesbyweightclassandage.In ordertoassignallvehiclestoappropriateweightclassesandfueltypetherawfleetdatahadtobe editedto: eliminateduplicates(basedonchassisnumbers) addmissingvehicleweights(toallowallocationintovehicleweightclasses) correctincorrectunitsinweights(e.g.,useofpoundsinsteadofkgforsomevehicles) correctfuelassignments assignsomeurbanbusestotheappropriatevehicleclass reallocatesomevehiclesinthetractorandtrailercategories It should be noted that some of the vehicles designated as motor tractors and trailers include vehiclessuchasforklifts(someofwhichuseLPGfuel),cranesandotheroffroadequipment.The editingwasbasedonvariousinformationsourcessuchasmanufacturersvehiclespecificationsand vehicleidentificationnumber(VIN)codes,informationfromJamaicaUrbanTransitCompany(JUTC) andTransportAuthority(TA).Thefleetdatafor2000,2005and2008(aftereditingindicatedabove) areshowninTable3.7.Theeditingisnotconsideredperfect,butrathersufficienttoprovidemore reliabledatathanoriginallyreceived. Table3.7: JamaicasMotorVehicleFleetin2000,2005and2008 VehicleType 2000 2005 2008# MOTORCAR 270,005 355,091 408,269 MOTORCYCLE 20,272 26,009 33,155 MOTORTRACTOR 443 818 1,728 MOTORTRUCK 91,498 120,883 139,481 TRAILER 2,757 3,815 4050 Total 384,975 506,616 586,683
#NoteExcludesduplicaterecords
Estimatesoffuelconsumption(mileage)andemissions(emissionfactors)weredeterminedusinga US EPA emissions model MOBILE6 for various combinations of vehicle classes and fuels (e.g., g/vehiclekmforeachvehicleclass).Theestimates,togetherwiththenumberofvehiclesandthe annualvehiclekilometrestravelled(VKMT)ineachweightclassbyfuel,allowedcalculationoftotal fueluse. Estimates for annual VKMT were based on limited surveys conducted by STATIN/PIOJ23 and the Ministry of Transport & Works (MTW)24. The former was based on a survey of householders in connectionwithresidentialenergyenduse,whilethelatterwasbasedonodometerreadingstaken atfourparishIslandTrafficAuthority(ITA)vehicleinspectiondepotsforvehicles(ofalltypes)that wereinspectedduringlimitedperiods.Inthelattersurvey,justover1000ofthe~2400odometer datapairswererejectedbecauseofuncertain/incorrectlyentereddatesorodometerreadings.
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TheaverageVKMTfromthetwosurveysaresummarisedinTable3.8.AlthoughtheMTWsurvey datawerebrokendownbyfueltype,dataforthedieselmotorcarsandmotorcyclesareexcluded becausethesamplesizesweretoosmall.VKMTfordieselmotorcarswereassumedtobethesame asforgasolinefuelledcarsandformotorcycleswereassumedtobethesameasusedpreviously. Table3.8: SummaryofVKMTEstimatesfromSurveys Survey Fuel VehicleType VKMT(km/y) MTW Diesel MotorCar MotorCycle 0 MotorTruck 31,477 MTW Petrol MotorCar 29,961 7 MotorCycle 33,786 MotorTruck 21,193 PIOJ/STATIN NotSpecified MotorCar 7,956 Pickup 6,604 SUV 5,876 Minivan/Bus 12,740 MotorCycle 7,748 ThePickup,SUVandMinivan/minibusvehicletypesinthePIOJ/STATINsurveywereaggregatedas MotorTrucksintheMTWsurvey.TheVKMTestimatesinthePIOJ/STATINsurveyareconsiderably lowerthanthatintheMTWsurvey.ItislikelythattheMTWsurveyincludedahighproportionof vehicles operated as hackney, public or private which are expected to have higher VKMT. Both surveysaresubjecttoconsiderableuncertainty. In applying the MOBILE6 model, local data included the age distribution of vehicles in each class, fuel properties, ambient conditions, average road and highway speeds, thediesel vehicle sales by vehicle class, and the mileage accumulation by vehicle class, the roadway distribution (freeway, arterial/collector,localroadsandramps). Theagedistributionofthefleet(basedonthetraditionalvehicleclasses)isshowninFigure3.23. NotethatinFigure3.23,vehicleswithmodelyearsof1985orearlieraregroupedtogether. Figure3.24showsCO2theloadingsfromtheonroadfleetforselectedscenarios.Abreakdownof theCO2loadingsintotheeightvehicleclassesfortheReferenceScenarioisillustratedinFigure3.25. ThevehicleclassesinFigure3.25areasfollows: LDGV Lightdutygasolinevehicles LDDV LightDutydieselvehiclesLDDT LDGT12 Lightdutygasolinetrucks LDDT Lightdutydieseltrucks LDGT34 Lightdutygasolinetrucks HDDV Heavydutydieselvehicles HDGV Heavydutygasolinevehicles MC Motorcycles
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Figure3.23:
AgeDistributionoftheJamaicanVehicleFleet(2008)
Figure3.24:
FinalEnvironmentalLoadingsforOnRoadFleet,SelectedScenarios(200935)
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Figure3.25:
FinalEnvironmentalLoadingsforOnRoadFleet,ReferenceScenario(200935)
Mitigationmeasuresfortheonroadfleetarecentredontheuseofnaturalgasinsomeofthefleet butnospecificpenetrationtargetswereavailable.ItshouldbenotedthattheReferenceScenario includestheintroductionofE10(asof201024),lowsulphurdieselandgasolineaswellasadditional highwayconstructionbothofwhichwouldimpactemissions.ThemitigationmeasuresforS2and S3werethereforelimitedtoassumedpercentageofnewvehicleregistrationsthatareequippedto useCNG. Consideration of CNG for motor cycles and heavy duty gasoline vehicles (HDGV) was excluded because it is either not feasible (in case of motor cycles) or because the number of vehicles (and hencetheexpectedbenefit)inthefleetissmall. TheimpactsofintroducingCNGvehiclesonCO2emissionsareillustratedinFigure3.26relativeto theReferenceScenario.TheCO2emissionsforscenarioswithCNGvehicles(S2NGandS3NG)show reductionswithnetreductions(i.e.,negativedifferences)after2020/21assufficientvehiclesenter thefleet.
24
E10wasintroducedinNovember2009andthefirstfullyear(2010)wasmodeled.
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Figure3.26:
FinalEnvironmentalLoadingsforRoadTransport,SelectedScenariosRelativeto theReferenceScenario(200935)
HouseholdDemand CO2 emissions from residential demand are driven by population increases as well as by larger percentagesofhouseholdacquiringappliancessuchasairconditioners,washingmachinesetc.This isillustratedinFigure3.27,whereenergyincreasesoutweighthemitigationmeasuressuchasthe additionalsubstitutionofincandescentbulbsbyCFLbulbsandmoreefficientappliances. Figure3.27: FinalEnvironmentalLoadingsforNonBiogenicCO2forResidentialDemand,All Scenarios(200935)
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The contributions to CO2 emissions allocated to the various demand sectors in the household category is illustrated in Figure 3.28 for the Reference Scenario. The highest percentage of the householdCO2emissionsisfromallotherfollowedbyrefrigeration,lightingandcooking(alltypes LPG, Electric stoves, charcoal and firewood). There are no mitigation measures proposed for cookingbutmeasuresfor lighting (additionalCFLbulbs), televisionsandrefrigeration(adoption of EnergyStarstandards)willreduceannualhouseholdemissions.Theimpactsofthesemeasuresare illustratedinFigures3.29to3.31. Figure3.28: FinalEnvironmentalLoadingsforNonBiogenicCO2fromResidentialDemand, ReferenceScenario(200935)
Figure3.29:
LightingMitigationMeasuresinHouseholdDemandCategory
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Figure3.30:
TelevisionMitigationMeasuresinHouseholdDemandCategory
Figure3.31:
RefrigerationMitigationMeasuresinHouseholdDemandCategory
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GovernmentDemand Thegovernmentcategorycompriseshospitals,NWC,andOtherGovernment,sinceelectricityand fuelusedataareavailableforthesegroups.Anextensiveanddetailedauditofhospitalsprovided detailedenergyconsumptionandactivity(typesofenergyconsumingdevices)datafor2006.The purposeoftheauditwastodevelopenergyconservationstrategies.Theseconsistedofanumberof investmentpackagesforwhichenergysavingsandimplementationcostsweredeveloped.These packages were used in LEAP to determine the implications for environmental loadings (GHG emissions)andenergydemandsavings. Figure 3.32 shows the overall changes in the Government category for CO2 emissions for all scenarios. These figures show the reductions in CO2 emissions that would be achieved. In the absence of details for the energy conservation measures that NWC would undertake, it was assumedthattherewouldbereductionsof5percentineachofthreeyearsstartingin2009forS2 and10percentineachoftwoyearsstartingin2012forS3. FortheOtherGovernmentcategory,thepublicsectorenergyconservationprogramwasassumed tomeetitstargetofa15percentreductioninenergyuseoverfiveyears.
Figure3.32: MitigationMeasuresintheGovernmentDemandCategory,SelectedScenarios (200935)
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OtherDemand:Rates20,40A,50and60 These customers use only electricity and there were no specific mitigation measures other than general energy conservation. Although significant energy conservation measures have been undertaken at UWI25 (a Rate 50 customer), the vast majority of the measures (refrigerant substitution,lightingchanges,energymanagement)wereundertakenbetween2006and2008.The impacts on CO2 emissions of projected growth and additional energy conservation measures are illustratedinFigure3.33. Figure3.33: MitigationMeasuresfromUWIInitiativesforSelectedScenariosRelativeto ReferenceScenario(200935)
Transformation Thetransformationcategoriesconsistoftransmission(ofelectricity)andtransformation(petroleum refiningandelectricitygenerationandcharcoalproduction)activities. Althoughtheemissionsdirectlyassociatedwiththeseactivitiesareallocatedtodemandcategories, itisinstructivetoindicatetheemissionsdirectlyassociatedwiththeseactivities.TheLEAPmodel produceselectricityoutputstomatchthedemandbasedon(amongotherthings)ontheloadshape, theavailabilityofgeneratingunitsandtheorderofdispatchetc. EnvironmentalLoadingofTransformationProcesses Figure 3.34 shows the CO2 emissions associated with transformation activities namely petroleum refining,electricitygeneration,coalgasificationandcharcoalmakingforthevariousscenarios.
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Figure3.34:
CO2EmissionsfromTransformationProcessesinJamaica,AllScenarios(200935)
Figure 3.35 illustrates the contributions from the transformation processes for S3 (which includes significantenergyfromcoalgasificationforuseinaluminakilns). Figure3.35: CO2EmissionsfromTransformationProcessesunderScenario3(200935)
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OtherSelectedTransformationandEnergyDemandResults ElectricityGeneration:TheelectricitygenerationoutputsforthethreescenariosareshowninFigure 3.36.Acomparisonoftheactualandmodelledgenerationoutputfor200008(Figure3.37)showsa good match. The household uses required the most attention and further refinement of the allocationsareinorder. Figure3.36: ElectricityGenerationOutputs,SelectedScenarios(200935)
Figure3.37:
ComparisonbetweenActualandModelledElectricityGenerationOutputs (200008)
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The total electricity generating capacity various additions to capacity and unit closures (retired or mothballed) that were assigned to the various scenarios are illustrated in Figure 3.38 (total capacity),Figure3.39(additions)andFigure3.40(retirements). Figure3.38: ElectricityGenerationCapacity,ScenariosReference,S2,S3andS3NGNU (200935)
Figure3.39:
TransformationResults:ElectricityGenerationCapacityAdded,Scenarios Reference,S2,S3andS3NGNU(200935)
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Figure3.40:
TransformationResults:ElectricityGenerationCapacityRetired/Mothballed, ScenariosReference,S2,S3(200935)
ElectricityGenerationMix:Thechangesinthemixofrenewable(wind,hydro,municipalsolidwaste) andnonrenewablefuels(coal,petcoke,oil)usedfortheelectricitygenerationcapacityforthethree scenariosareshowninFigure3.41.Thepercentageofrenewablesusedforelectricitygenerationin the Reference scenario in 2010 is 5 percent. In 2020, the percentages of renewables are 11.9 percent, 12.5 percent and 13.2 percent for the Reference, S2 and S3 scenarios respectively comparedwiththeEnergyPolicytargetof15percentby2020and20percentby2030butforall sourcesofenergy.
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Figure3.41:
PercentagesofFuelTypesintheReference,S2andS3Scenarios
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FinalEnergyDemand ThemixoffuelsinuseinthevariousscenariosisillustratedinFigures3.42to3.45forscenariosRef, S2,S2NG,andS3NG.Thechangesinthemixoffuelsareclearwheneithercoalornaturalgasis used.
Figure3.42: Figure3.43:
FinalEnergyDemandAllFuels(Grouped):ReferenceScenario FinalEnergyDemandAllFuels:ScenarioS2(Coal)
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Figure3.44:
FinalEnergyDemandAllFuels:ScenarioS2NG(NaturalGasforPower,Alumina, andVehicles)
Figure3.45:
FinalEnergyDemandAllFuels:ScenarioS3NG(NaturalGasforPower,Alumina, andVehicles)
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RefineryOutputs Therefineryoutputs(anyincludingimports)tomeetthedemandareshowninFigures3.46to3.50 for the Reference, S2, S2NG, S3 and S3NG respectively. Thesescenarios all show changes in the fuelrequirements(especiallyfordieselandHFO)relativetotheReferencescenario.
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Figure3.46:
TransformationOutputs:RefineryFuelsOutputs(thousandboe):ReferenceScenarioforSelectedYears
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Figure3.47:
TransformationOutputs:RefineryFuelsOutputs(thousandboe):ScenarioS2forSelectedYears
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Figure3.48:
TransformationOutputs:RefineryFuelsOutputs(thousandboe):ScenarioS2NGforSelectedYears
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Figure3.49:
TransformationOutputs:RefineryFuelsOutputs(thousandboe):ScenarioS3forSelectedYears
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Figure3.50:
TransformationOutputs:RefineryFuelsOutputs(thousandboe):ScenarioS3NGforSelectedYears
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SummaryofHowMitigationMeasuresAffectCarbonDioxideEmissions,200035 Forallscenarios,thepercentagechangeinthenonbiogenicCO2emissionsin2035relativetothe year 2000 for the overall demand, transformation and non energy sector categories provide a measureoftheimpactsoffactors(activityandenergyintensityrelated)thataffectemissions. These percentage changes for each scenario are summarized in Figure 3.51. Also included in the figurearethepercentagechangesforsectorsinthesecategories.Notethatinthecaseofelectricity use and other secondary fuel use in the demand category, the emissions occurring in the various transformationcategoriesareallocatedbacktotherelevantdemandsource. Overall Demand: The leftmost grouping in Figure 3.51 shows the percentage changes in CO2 emissions for 2035 relative to 2000 for the overall demand in all scenarios. The overall CO2 emissionsintheenergydemandsforthereference,S2andS3scenariosincreaseby29percent,52 percentand98percentrespectively.ThisisconsistentwiththegeneralincreaseinCO2generating (and energy consuming) activities because of population increases, fleet increases and increased bauxite and alumina production. These scenarios all entail additional coal fired electricity generation whose emissions easily outweigh the emission reductions from the much smaller additionsofwindandhydrogeneratingstations.Inaddition,S3alsoincludesamajorexpansionin aluminarefiningcapacity. The major mitigation measure is the introduction of natural gas (scenarios S2NG, S3NG and S3 NGNU)andanuclearplantinconjunctionwithnaturalgasinscenarioS3NGNU.Becauseofthese measures,theCO2emissionsinthesescenariosarelowerthanthoseinthecorrespondingS2andS3 scenarios. Cement Kiln Demands: Changes in CO2 emissions due to cement kilns are driven primarily by increased clinker production. The completion of the new kiln in 2008 resulted in a major improvement in energy efficiency and those changes are therefore present in all scenarios. Note thatsincetheelectricalenergyuseinthecementmillsissmall(1.8percentto3.5percent)relative totheenergyusedinclinkerproduction,agroupingforcementmillsisnotincludedinFigure3.51. Bayer Process, Alumina Kiln and Lime Kiln Demands: The emissions from the Bayer process and aluminaandlimecalcinationthatentailusingcoal(S2,S2coal+Syngas,S3andS3coalsyngas)all result in increased emissions relative to the reference scenario. The S3 scenarios have higher emissionsthanthecorrespondingS2onesbecauseofincreasedaluminaproduction. ThemitigationmeasureduetotheuseofnaturalgasinscenariosS2NGandS3NGandS3NGNUall dramaticallyreducetheCO2emissionsrelativetothecorrespondingscenariosinwhichcoalisused. Similarpatternsoccurinthecaseoflimeandaluminakilnsbutthereductionismoredramaticin aluminakilnssincealuminakilnscannotusecoaldirectly(syngasisused). Inthecaseofbauxitemining,nochangeinfueliscontemplatedinanyscenarioandhenceemissions increase with production. It should be noted that the vertical axis in Figure 3.51 is a percentage changeanddoesnotreflectabsoluteemissions. SNCOFJAMAICA
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Figure3.51:
SummaryofPercentageChangesinCO2Emissionsin2035Relativeto2000forOverallDemandandTransformationfor MitigationAssessmentScenarios
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HouseholdDemand:TheCO2emissionsforthehouseholdandgovernmentdemandshowreduced emissions in 2035 relative to 2000 for all scenarios. Although there is population increase (and henceanincreaseinthenumberofhouseholdsorJPScustomers)theincreaseddemandbecauseof this is more than offset by more energy efficient appliances, mitigation (energy conservation) measuresandlowerCO2emittingelectricitygenerationwhennaturalgasisused.[Rememberthat the CO2 emissions for electricity demand are estimated by allocating the emissions to transformationactivities.] GovernmentDemand:ThemitigationmeasuresinthehospitalsandNWCaswellasagovernment program to reduce electricity consumption by 15 percent lead to the overall reduction in CO2 emissionsforallscenariosintheGovernmentcategory. Rates 20, 40A, 50 and 60 Categories Demands: No significant mitigation measures have been proposedfortheseratecategories.Estimatesforthechangesinenergydemandarelimitedbya lack of information on the types of energy end use equipment and/or a knowledge of the distribution of activities (for example, based on a knowledge of industrial classification i.e., Jamaica Industrial Classification (JIC) Codes for these customers) on which enduse demand estimatescouldbemade.ThemostnotablepercentagereductioninCO2emissionprojectionsisfor thestreetlighting(Rate60)duetotheintroductionsofenergyefficientlighting(Figure3.51). Transformation: The overall changes in CO2 emissions for transformation processes reflect the introductionofnaturalgas(lowerCO2emissionsin2035relativeto2000forthescenariosinwhich naturalgasisusedforelectricitygeneration).TheCO2emissionsfromoilrefiningshownovariation across scenarios since all assume the refinery upgrade takes place. The pattern for CO2 emissions from electricity generation alone also reflects the introduction of natural gas (lower emissions in 2035thanin2000forscenariosS2NG,S3NGandS3NGNU). NonEnergy Sector Emissions: The non energy sector emissions (which are ~2500 times higher in 2035thanin2000)aredominatedbytheprocessemissionsfromtheuseofpetcokeinelectricity generationwhichispresentinallscenarios.(Notethatthedataforthenonenergysectoremissions aredividedby100.) 3.3.4ConstraintsandDataGaps Theanalysisisconstrainedbythefollowing: Althoughrailtransportationisused(only)inthebauxitesector,informationon(diesel)fuel used for rail transport was not readily disaggregated from other diesel fuel used in the sector. Rail is used to transport bauxite from some mines to plants, for transporting products(aluminaandhydrate)fromplantstoshippingportsandfortransportingmaterials fromtheportstoplants.Thedieselfuelusedforrailwasincludedinthatusedformining and all diesel fuel use in the bauxite and alumina sector was assumed to be for bauxite mining. Fuelusedfordomesticmarineactivitieswasnotalwaysreadilyavailable.Itisbelievedthat some of the gasoline sold in retail outlets is used for fishing and other domestic marine activities. ProjectionsrelatedtoHFCemissionsarenotincluded Limiteddatawasavailabletomakeprojectionsforthesugarindustry
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3.4ImplementationofMitigationActions Thissection: indicatesthemainrequirementsforimplementingmitigationmeasures; identifiesregulatoryandpolicygaps;and providesspecificrecommendationsforimplementingprioritymitigationmeasures. 3.4.1MainRequirementsforImplementationofMitigationActions Successfulimplementationofthemitigationmeasureswillinteraliadependon: Provision of incentives/disincentives for the development and use of innovative technologiesthatimprove/worsenefficiency; Implementation of energy related policies that support the goals of the national energy policy,namely,thebiofuels,wastetoenergy,andcarbonemissionstradingpolicies; Creation of relevant legislation to support investments in efficiency in energyintensive sectorssuchastransportandbauxite; Areviewofpreviousandexistingdemandsidemanagementprogrammesforperformance, strengthsandlessonslearned; Strongerinstitutionalcapacitiesintheenergyandenvironmentsectors; Development of programmes designed to influence market behaviour towards more efficientuseinenergyacrossallsectors; Developmentofmechanismstoefficientlyshareenergyrelatedinformationandforpublic andprivatesectorentitiestocollaborateonenergyrelatedprojects; Establishmentofasystemtoidentifyandreplaceoldinefficientelectricityequipmentand (especially)generatingunits/plantswithmorefuelefficientandcostefficienttechnologies andplants; Promotionofstrategicpartnershipsbetweenthepublicandprivatesectorstofinanceand developenergydiversificationprojects;and Introduction of national vehicle emission standards and regulations to reduce vehicular emissionsandpromoteintroductionofcleanertransportationfuels(especiallyCNG). Asnotedinsection3.1.3,Vision2030providesthecontextandgoalsfornationaldevelopmentand theNationalEnergyPolicy200930providestheframeworkwithinwhichthemitigationmeasures indicatedinS2andS3willtakeplace.TheEnergyPolicypresentsarangeofoptionsandstrategies forenergyconservationtowhichthegovernmentiscommittedtopursueovertheshort,medium andlongerterm.Italsoidentifiesfueldiversification(withexplicittargets)amongthekeygoalsto improveenergysecurityandreduceenergycosts. Some of the specific strategies included in the Energy Policy that will facilitate the mitigation measuresinscenariogroupsS2andS3areasfollows. finalizingtheenergyefficiencyandconservationpolicy; creatingrelevantlegislationtosupportrequiredinvestmentsinenergyefficiency; infusingenergyconservationissuesintorelevantsectoralpolicydevelopment(e.g.tourism, health,andwaterpolicies); implementingapubliceducationprogrammetoencourageenergyconservation;
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providing incentives/disincentives for the use of innovative/clean technologies in power generation,mining,andmanufacturingtoimproveenergyefficiencies; promulgatingtheenergyefficientbuildingcode; introducingnationalvehicleemissionstandards; promotinggreatervehiclefuelefficiency; promotingimportsofmorefuelefficientvehicles; levyingtaxesonpetrolatappropriatelevelstoencourageconservation; providingadequateinfrastructurefortransitiontoalternativeenergyvehicles; improvinginfrastructureandenforcingmaximumaxelweightstandards; increasingmasstransitopportunitiesandutilization;and introducingfinancialincentivesforsolartechnologiesinthepublicandprivatesectors.
CERE will also facilitate private sector involvement to implement projects in the areas of hydropower,wind,solar,biomassandwastetoenergy. TheNationalEnergyPolicy20082020andVision2030Jamaica:NationalDevelopmentPlanplacesa highpriorityondiversifyingthecountrysenergymixandincreasingthepercentagecontributedby renewables. The policy envisages that the supply mix will have marked changes by 2012 when petroleum isexpectedtorepresent 67percentofthemix, naturalgas15percent,petcoke/coal5 percent and renewables 12.5 percent. By 2030, the share of petroleum in the supply mix is expectedtobeonly30percent,withnaturalgasaccountingforasmuchas42percentofthemix andrenewables20percent. 3.4.2 InstitutionalandPolicyGapsAffectingImplementationofMitigationActions Various regulatory, policy and coordination gaps exist in the energy sector. The 200930 Energy Policyclearlyarticulatesthesegapsandincludesstrategiestofillmostofthem.Someofthecritical gapsthataffectimplementationofmitigationmeasuresarehighlightedbelow. CarbonTrading:ThedraftCarbonTradingPolicyincludesaproposaltonamethedesignationofthe Designated National Authority (DNA) and to secure a sustained source of funding to support the provision of DNA related activities and services. However although the policy recognises that absence of an institution/agency and a Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) governance structure, it does not clearly articulate the nature of the institution or agency that will house the DNAanditsactivities,e.g.,whetherornotanylegislationwillbeneeded;howtheDNAofficewould be staffed; a timeline for its establishment; and the governance structure surrounding the DNA office. Asof2009,theWigtonWindFarmistheonlyprojectinJamaicathatisengagedincarbontrading. ThedraftpolicyrecognisesthatadditionalcapacityisneededtosuccessfullytakeadvantageofCDM opportunities.Sincetherewereseveralpotentialprojectsin2009thatcouldbenefitfromcarbon trading,itisconsideredessentialthatthispolicybeimplementedwithgreaturgency. OtherPolicyandRegulatoryGaps:Someofchallengesintheenergysectorincludelegislationthat lacksadequateenforcementprovisionsandclearlyarticulatedpoliciesorprotocolstoaddress:the pricing of electricity and petroleum products; decision making about retiring or mothballing old inefficient electricity generation plants; tax and pricing structures for road users; how to (better)
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addresselectricitysystemlosses;andthedevelopmentofrenewablegenerationcapacity.Thishas resultedinincrementaldecisionsandhaslimitedtheintroductionofdiversesourcesofenergyand providing integrated monitoring and enforcement of regulations. As of 2009, there were also no legislativeprovisionsforthenetmetering,carbontrading(asdiscussedabove)orenergyefficiency standards, although it is envisaged that these will be addressed as the 200930 National Energy Policyisimplemented. Coordinationamongenergysectorstakeholders:Thestakeholdersinvolvedintheimplementation ofmitigationmeasuresspanthegamutofpublicandprivatesectoragenciesandinstitutionsaswell asthegeneralpublic.Coordinationofmitigationactivitiesandcommunicationofvitalinformation toandamongthesestakeholderswillbevital.Asof2009,therewerenoformalinteragencybodies or other mechanisms that coordinated mitigation activities between various agencies or that facilitatedinformationflow. Data collection and information: In general, various pieces of legislation include provisions that requirereportingoffuelsales,electricitygenerationparametersandemissionsandforacquisition ofproductionandotheractivitydatathatareneededforestimatingemissionsandforplanning purposes. Data on historical electrical energy use and fuel consumption are collected by various entities,includingSTATIN,PIOJ,JPS,OUR,NEPA,MTW,andMEM. There are, however, critical gaps in the collection of information that would allow forecasting of energyandfuelconsumption.RecentlyMEMhasbeenengagedinenergyforecastingbutitappears thattheeffortisconstrainedbythelackofsuitabledata. Notwithstandingthecollectionofhistoricaldata,theenergysectorisnoteffectivelysupportedby databases that are sufficiently precise to enable analysis, forecasting, and overall management of the sector. There also are significant delays in accessing reliable information. This has adverse effectsontheabilitytoplanandmakeinformeddecisions. TheannualdatacompiledbySTATINinthedecanalcensusesandannualsurveysoflivingconditions (e.g.,ESSJ andJSLC reports)providesome of thedata requiredfor forecastingpurposesbasedon analysis of historical trends. The JSLC surveys include good data on penetration of household electricalappliancesandotheramenities.Similarsurveydatathatwouldbeusefulforestimating electricityconsumptionfornonresidentialsectorsarenotavailable.Forexample,arecentsurvey of residential energy end use was a missed opportunity to obtain energy intensity data for the residentialsector. Enhancementofthesurveyapproachisneededsothatenergyintensitydatacanbeobtainedona routinebasis.SpecificexamplesincludetheenhancementoftheJSLCsurveystoincludecollection of information on the age ranges and numbers in each household of selected high energy consuming appliances (e.g., refrigerators, television sets, and air conditioners). The approaches used in the US Residential Energy and Consumer Survey (RECS) or National Resources Canada (NRCAN)residentialenergyendusesurveyswouldbesuitableandcouldbeeasilyadapted. Since nearly all electrical appliances and equipment are imported, enhancement of the import classificationwouldbeusefultoclearlydistinguishbetweenvariouscategoriesofappliances(based ontechnologyandrangesofenergyuse).Examplesareasfollows: Motorvehiclestodistinguishfuelused(i.e.,diesel,gasoline,CNG,hybrid,electricity,etc.); SNCOFJAMAICA
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Refrigerators(rangeinSEERvalue,refrigerant(HCorHFC)); TVs(basedontechnologyand/orenergyintensity).
Whilevariousenergysectorprojectsandprogrammeshavebeenplannedovertheyears,fewwere undertakenandtherehasbeenlimitedcoordinationofactivitiesandtimelinessinimplementation ofprojects.Additionally,overtheyears,whilesomeemphasishasbeenplacedonthepromotionof energy conservation in commercial sectors and industries such as tourism, the emphasis was not sustained and pilot projects (such as the Environmental Audits for Sustainable Tourism) were not effectivelyinstitutionalizedacrossothersectors. Althoughtherehavebeenleastcost(electricity)expansionplans(LCEPs),theexpansionsthathave takenplacehavebeendeterminedbyexpediencyandexternalfactorshave,insomecases,driven thedecisionmakingprocess. There have been several sectoral plans or policies (e.g., tourism, transport, industry) but, until recently25, there was nominal effort directed at national or sectoral energy (apart from the electricitygeneratingsector)oremissionsforecasting.Forexample,thereappearstobelittleifany reliable national or sectoral energy demand projections (and hence potential savings from energy conservationinitiativesforexampleinthetourismsectororamongJPSRate40and50consumers). Inthecaseofelectricitygeneration,theforecastingofelectricityconsumptionamongvariousrate categorieswasbasedonmacroeconomicdataratherthanonknowledgeofenduseequipment. It is to be noted that information on more immediate or shorter term energy requirements is sometimes included in environmental impact assessments and could also be included in NEPAs permitapplications. Lowlevelsofresearchintheenergysectorcanalsobeidentifiedasagap,resultinginlowlevelsof adoption and adaptation of new and emerging energy technologies, improvements in energy infrastructure,andappropriatelegislation. There is also a lack of a comprehensive and sustained public education programme that would encourageJamaicanstouseenergywiselyandtoaggressivelypursueopportunitiesforconservation andefficiency.Asaresultofthis,theJamaicanpublichasarelativelylowlevelofawarenessofthe importanceofenergyanditsuseintheirdailylivesandthecontributionthateachpersoncanmake to the responsible and efficient use of this vital resource. This low level of awareness also could explainthelowintensityofuseofsolarenergyforwaterheatinginJamaicanhouseholds. 3.4.3 Recommendations Forsomecountries,particularlydevelopedcountrieswithemissionreductiontargets,energypolicy islinkedtoorframedwithinthecontextofclimatechangemitigationandthemovetowardsalow carboneconomy.Althoughdevelopingcountries,includingJamaica,donothaveemissionreduction targets,noregretsmitigationactionssuchasenergyconservationanddevelopmentofrenewable
MEMisintheprocessofpreparingnationalenergyforecastsusingtheENPEPmodelbutresultsarenotyet available.
25
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energy sources can have positive impacts in terms of economic, social, and environmental considerations. The recommendations below are focused on improving the enabling environment and building institutional and technical capacities to encourage adoption of suitable energy conservation/GHG mitigation technologies and to fill data gaps that will facilitate costeffective energy use and implementationofGHGmitigationmeasures. EnablingEnvironment ImprovingtheenablingenvironmentwithinwhichGHGmitigationandotherenergysectoractivities take place will entail streamlining some legislation or policies and in some cases additional legislation.Theseincludethefollowing: Strengthenregulationssothereareadequateenforcementprovisionsandclearlyarticulated policiesorprotocolsthat:addressthepricingofelectricityandpetroleumproducts;improve decision making about retiring or mothballing inefficient electricity generation plants; (better)addresselectricitysystemlosses;anddeveloprenewablegenerationcapacity; Developandimplementaregulatoryframeworktoallowcarbontradingtotakeplace.This shouldincludelegislationestablishingtheDNRandassociatedentities,andspecificationof the trading modalities for local and international entities (e.g., licensing, certification or regulation of such entities, owning Certified Emission Reductions and Verifiable Emissions Reductions,etc.); Establish an enabling environment to encourage local and foreign financing of innovative energy projects, especially in renewables. This could entail developing policies and programmesthatwillencourageuseofbiogasandsolarheatersaswellasotheralternate energy sources such as photovoltaic systems. These could, for example, entail revolving loansand/orimportdutyconcessionsandincentivesforenergyefficiencyimprovements; Implement incentives that will encourage tertiary level institutions to develop research programmesfortheapplicationandimplementationofrenewableenergyprojects; Adapt/adopt or develop energy efficiency standards for consumer and industrial electrical equipment(e.g.theEnergyStarprogramme)andbaseimportdutiesforsuchequipmentin partonenergyefficiencystandards; Introducenationalmotorvehicleemissionstandardsandregulations; Develop regulations and safety standards in anticipation of the introduction of CNG infrastructureandCNGuseinindustryandinvehicles; Revisethebasesfortax/customsdutiessothattheyarebasedonvehicleweightclassand fueltype(notccrating); NEPAincollaborationwithMEMandPCJshouldincludetheprovisionofprojectedelectrical energyandfueluseandassociatedtechnologiesandappropriatebenchmarkinginformation asarequirementinselectedpermitapplicationsandenvironmentalimpactassessments.In order to focus attention on energy conservation, NEPA should rename the EIA as an EnvironmentalandEnergyImpactAssessment(EEIA); Makeuseoftheenergyefficiencyfundtoincreaseenergyprojects,suchasthoserelatedto renewableenergy; Implementthebuildingcode.
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CapacityBuildingNeeds Capacity building in energy sector institutions will be required if mitigation measures are to be effectivelyimplemented. Capacitybuildingneedsinthepublicsectorcentresoninstitutionalarrangementsforthecollection, compilation,reportingandanalysisofenergyinformationandforpubliceducation. Implementationofprivatesectormeasuresrequiresincreasedprivatesectortechnologyawareness andcapabilityandanenvironmentthatfacilitatesandencouragesinvestmentforimplementationof mitigationmeasures.Publicsectoragencieswithregulatoryorotherresponsibilityfortheenergy and environment must also be aware of the technologies, be ableto assess them andto develop policiesthatareresponsivetoprivatesectorandnationalneeds. Thefollowingspecificcapacitybuildingneedshavebeenidentified: EnhancedcapacitytocompileGHG(andother)emissioninventoriesandthecapacityto performenergyandGHGemissionsforecasting/modelling; Developmentofanenergyinformationclearinghouse; Staff trained to perform functions of the DNA and the supporting institutions (e.g., NationalCarbonTradingPromotionalorganization); DNA institutions identified and/or established and any necessary legislation enacted (e.g.,toenablecertificationorlicensingoftradingmodalities); Role of the Energy Efficiency Unit within the Petroleum Corporation of Jamaica expanded to provide technical assistance for ECE initiatives in the public and private sectors; Regulatoryagenciesprovidedwithenforcementpowerstoimprovetheefficiencyofthe systemandcomplywithestablishedbenchmarks,proceduresandstandards; Strongerlinkswiththeenergysectorandacademicinstitutionsdevelopedtodrivethe adoptionandadaptationofnewtechnologiesintheenergysector; Capacity of local companies developed to improve their processes and energy efficienciesandtotakeadvantageofcarbontradingopportunities. AdoptionofCleanandEnergyEfficientTechnologies
The identified renewable energy projects for electricity generation as of 2009 are not likely to meet the targets for renewables set in the 200930 Energy Policy. Although therehavebeenseveralstudiesoncogenerationinthesugarindustry,firmplansremain elusive. It has been estimated that increasing sugar cane production to 3.36 million tonnescanecouldprovideanadditional47.4MWforsaletothegrid26.Amoremodest targetforincreasedsugarcaneproductiontoyieldanadditional30MWwouldlikelybe more achievable26. Other biomass projects are in the conceptual stages but need further development. The inclusion of additional cogeneration in the sugar industry
Acrudeestimatewouldbetoincreasethe2008amountof1.65milliontonnessugarcanemilledto2.2 milliontonnes.
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with sale of electricity to the grid would help to achieve the energy policy targets for renewable; Develop capacity to facilitate greater energy efficiency in the bauxite and alumina industryandthemanufacturingsector(Rate40andRate50JPScustomers).Initiatives suchastherecentlyannouncedpartnershipbetweenJPSandNWCcouldbeappliedan asectoralbasis(oncesuitableinformationisavailable); Engageinresearchtowardsadoptionandadaptationofnewandemergingtechnologies and improvements in energy infrastructure. This should include distributed energy generationfromsolarandwindenergyandlowgradeheatforcooling/airconditioning; Implement incentives/disincentives to enable the development and use of innovative technologiestoimproveenergyefficienciesinallsectorsandinhouseholds; Research and develop alternative fuels for the transport sector, including the use of biofuelsandCNGwhenitbecomesavailable; EncouragetheuseofsolarpoweredwaterpumpingbytheNWC;mandatethatallnew hot water installations be solar in all public buildings; and promote more widespread useofsolarwaterheatinginhotels; Promote the adoption of solar powered cooling/air conditioning, especially in the hotel/tourismsector; Implementdemandsideenergymanagementprogrammes,includingtheuseofenergy efficient appliances, equipment, and building designs; setting and enforcing standards forpublicsectororganizations;andpublicawarenessandeducationalprogrammes.
AddressDataandInformationGaps Improvethemotorvehiclefleetdatabase(e.g.,ensurecorrectassignmentoffueltype; addoffroadcategories,weightunits;clearlydistinguishbetweennonmotorisedtrailers and motorised trailers; add allowance (categories) for hybrid and CNG vehicles. This couldbeachievedbyqualityassurancechecksduringdataentryanduseofdatabases withmanufacturersspecifications); Compile statistics for annual vehicle kilometres travelled (VKMT)27 through periodic surveysorroutinelycollectandrecordodometerreadingsduringvehicleinspectionsfor certificatesoffitness; Develop mechanisms that would facilitate or require fleet management companies to reportVKMTandothergeneralnonconfidentialvehicledata; CodeJPScustomers(atleasttheRate40and50customers)byJICandrequirereporting of energy use statistics by JIC accordingly. This type of information will inform the designofappropriateendusesurveysinthecommercial/manufacturingsectorsandin planning/forecastingdemand; Surveyindustrialandcommercialcustomersforenduseequipment; Conductperiodicsurveysforcharcoalandwooduse; ConductproperresidentialenergyusesurveyinconjunctionwithdatafromJPSsmart meters; Compiledataonapplianceimportsorsalesforrefrigerators; Assessimpactofdistributedelectricitygenerationandwaterstorageandifappropriate developasuitableprogramtopromoteitsimplementation;
27
Astudyiscurrentlyunderway
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Developandsustainpubliceducationonenergyefficiencyandconservation; Review the sustainable development and energy conservation curriculum needs throughout the (primary, secondary and tertiary levels) in the educational system and enhancethecurriculumaccordingly.
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Appendix3.1:ScenariosfortheDemandandNonEnergySectorEffects Category Reference(REF) Scenario2(S2) KeyAssumptions Population Growthat0.47%decliningto0.25%in Growthat0.38%decliningto0.25%in 2030 2030 Householdsize Constantat3.33 From3.33in2008to3.20in2015to3.15 in2035 No.ofhouseholds Population/householdsize Population/householdsize GDP2003J$ PIOJdatafor2009,2010,2012,2015and SameGDPgrowthto2020asReference. 2030 Growthincreasingby1%between2020 30(i.e.,from3to4%andconstantafter 203135) GDPgrowthrate 0%in2009,1%in2010;3%in201215;to 0%in2009,1%in2010;3%in2012;4%in 4%in2030 2015;4.5%in2035 Demand Households No.ofhouseholds Numberofhouseholdsbasedon Numberofhouseholdsbasedon populationandhouseholdsize(above) populationandhouseholdsize(above) AppliancepenetrationforRate10 Residential(Rate AppliancepenetrationforRate10 10)Customers customersassumedthesameas customersassumedthesameas householdpenetrationfromJSLC householdpenetrationfromJSLC Rate10customersincreasefrom523,728 Rate10customersincreasefrom523,728 Residential(Rate 10)Customers in2008to780,951in2035. in2008to800,850in2035. Customer/Householdratioincreasesfrom Customer/Householdratioincreasesfrom 0.648in2008to0.860in2035 0.648in2008to0.860in2035 Refrigeration Penetration(saturation)increasesfrom Penetration(saturation)increasesfrom 2008level(77.4%)to92%in2030.No 2008level(77.4%)to92.5%in2035. energyefficientrefrigerators. Energyefficientpenetrationincreases Noteimportsaccountfor~0.5%of from0to5%in2015;8.5%in2020;12% in2025;19%in2035.Energyefficiency stockofrefrigerators. improvesby15%in2025forexistingand energyefficientfridges.
Scenario3(S3) Growthat0.38%decliningto0.0%in2030 From3.33in2008to3.20in2015to3.10 in2035 Population/householdsize SameGDPgrowthto2020asReference. Growthincreasingby2%between2020 30(i.e.,from3to5%andconstantafter 203135) 0%in2009,1%in2010;3%in2012;4%in 2015;5.0%in2035 Numberofhouseholdsbasedon populationandhouseholdsize(above) AppliancepenetrationforRate10 customersassumedthesameas householdpenetrationfromJSLC Rate10customersincreasefrom523,728 in2008to808,290in2035. Customer/Householdratioincreasesfrom 0.648in2008to0.8825in2035 Penetration(saturation)increasesfrom 2008level(77.8%)to95%in2035. Energyefficientpenetrationincreases from0to9.5%in2015;16.5%in2020; 21.5%in2025;31.5%in2035.Energy efficiencyimprovesby15%in2025for existingandenergyefficientfridges.
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Lighting
Keepcurrentmixoftechnologies (incandescent(17.7%),CFLsfrom74%in 2008to80%in2015basedinexisting programs.NoLED;Kerosenedecreases from6.1%in2008to1%in2035 LPGfrom89.3%in2008to95%in2030; Electricstovesfrom(2.5%to10%in2030; charcoalandfirewoodflat Assumecurrentpenetrationrates(68.1%) remainsflat
CFLsfrom74.13to90%in2015and incandescenttodecreasefrom17.87to 10%by2015;LEDfrom0to2%in2015 and5%in2035;Kerosenedecreasefrom 6.3to3%in2015
Cooking
Fans
Stereo
AirConditioners
LPGfrom89.3%in2008to95%in2020; Electricstovesfrom(2.5%to10%in2020; charcoalandfirewoodflat Assumecurrentpenetrationrate(68.1%) increasesto80%in2015. Energyefficiencyimprovesby15%in 2025 Assume2008penetrationratesand Penetrationratesfrom35.8%to50%in energyefficiency 2020.Energyefficiencyimprovesby5%in 2020 Keepcurrentpenetrationrate(2.9%)and Penetrationratesforexistingfrom2.9% assumenoefficientorHCbasedACs to10%in2020;5%in2035.EfficientACs 0%to10%in2020;20%in2035.HCfrom 0to5%in2020andto20%in2035. Energyefficiencyimprovesby15%in 2025forexisting;by25%in2035for efficientACsandby16%in2035forHC ACs Assumecurrent(2008)penetrationrate (15.5%)remainthesame Penetrationratesfrom15.4%to30%in 2020and60%in2035.Energyefficiency improvesby15%in2025
Computer equipment
AddCFLsto95%saturationby2015(from 74.13to95%)andincandescentto decreasefrom17.87to5%in2015and 0%by2035;LEDincreasesfrom0to5%in 2015andto10%in2035;Kerosene decreasefrom6.3to1%in2015 LPGfrom89.3%in2008to95%in2020; Electricstovesfrom(2.5%to10%in2020; charcoalandfirewoodflat Assumecurrentpenetrationrates(68.1%) goesto90%in2015 Energyefficiencyimprovesby15%in 2020 Penetrationratesfrom35.8%in2008to 60%in2020.Energyefficiencyimproves by10%in2020 Penetrationratesforexistingfrom2.9% to10%in2015,12%in2020,10%in2025, and0in2035.EfficientACs0%to15%in 2020;20%in2035and25%in2030.HC from0to10%in2020andto25%in2035. EnergyefficiencyforexistingACs improvesby15%in2025,forHCACsby 16%in2035andby25%forefficientACs by2035 Penetrationratesfrom15.4%to15%in 2020and80%in2035.Energyefficiency improvesby15%in2020andfurther10% by2035
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WashingMachines
TV
Clothesiron Allother
Penetrationrateforexistingmachines Penetrationrateforexistingmachines increasesfrom29.74%to35%in2020and decreasesfrom29.74%to22%in2020 and20%in2035.Energyefficient 50%in2035(noenergyefficient machinespenetrateto3%by2015;8%by machines) 2020andto30%in2035.Energy efficiencyforexistingmachinesimproves by15%by2020andforefficientmachines by50%by2020 Penetrationrateincreasesfrom89.5%to Penetrationrateincreasesto95%by 95%by2015.Energyefficiencyno 2015.Energyefficiencyimprovesby4%by changeNote:Insufficientdataontypes 2012andby33%in2025(relativeto2008 values) (LED,plasmaetc.)ofTVssoassumed overallgroup. Saturationfrom92%in2008to95%by Saturationto95%by2035.Energy 2035.Nochangeinenergyefficiency efficiencyimprovesby15%in2020 Assumecurrentpenetrationratesremain Assumecurrentpenetrationratesremain thesame.Energyefficiencynochange thesame.Energyefficiencyimprovesby 10%in2025 2009valuefromCCCL;2010at0.9Million tonneor900ktonneandthereafter growingat30%ofGDPgrowth(including assumedexportmarket(increasingfrom 132ktonnein2011to181ktonnein 2035)[1.181Milliontonnein2035]Note: kilnsatcapacitiesafter2035.Kiln4 reopened2011andKiln3permanently closed. 2009valuefromCCCL;2010at900Mt andthereaftergrowingat35%ofGDP growthrate(includingassumedexport market(115ktonne20092020;110 ktonneto2021;100ktonneto2025; decreasingto60ktonne2035)[1.280 Milliontonnein2035].Note:kilnsat capacitiesin2035.Kiln4reopened(2011) andKiln3permanentlyclosed.
Penetrationforexistingmachinesfrom 29.74%to27%in2020and15%in2035. Energyefficientmachinesto3%in2015; 13%by2020and52%by2035.Energy efficiencyforexistingmachinesimproves by20%by2020andforefficientmachines by50%by2020 Penetrationrateincreasesto95%by 2015.Energyefficiencyimprovesby4%by 2012and44%in2025(relativeto2008 values) Saturationto95%by2030.Energy efficiencyimprovesby20%in2020 Assumecurrentpenetrationratesremain thesame.Energyefficiencyimprovesby 15%in2025
Industry CementClinker
CementMills BauxiteMining
2009valuefromCCCL;2010at900Mt (17%)andthereaftergrowingat45%of theGDPgrowth(includingassumed exportmarket(120ktonneto2012;100 ktonnein2013decreasingto20ktonnein 2025then0ktonnein2032)[1.3Million tonnein2031through2035]. Note:kilnsatcapacitiesin2031.Kiln4 reopened(2011)withimproved efficiency.Kiln3permanentlyclosed. Basedonclinkerproduction Basedonclinkerproduction Basedonclinkerproduction Bauxitelinkedtoaluminaproduction Bauxitelinkedtoaluminaproduction Bauxitelinkedtoaluminaproduction basedonexistingaverageratiosof basedonexistingaverageratiosof basedonexistingaverageratiosof bauxitetoaluminaateachaluminaplant bauxitetoaluminaateachaluminaplant bauxitetoaluminaateachaluminaplant
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BayerProcess
Alpartreopensin2012atsamecapacity (1.625milliontonnealumina)asin2008 (rampingfrom75%in2012to95% capacityin2013).NoJamalcoJU3 expansionbut5%capacityincrease(from 1.425Mtto1.5milliontonnealuminain 2010).Note:assumedproductionat95% capacities.WindalcoKirkvineclosed. WindalcoEwartonopensat75%of originalcapacityin2012,90%in2013and 95%in2014andthereafter.StAnn Bauxite4.2milliontonnebauxitein 2010thenupto4.452milliontonne thereafter.HFOusedinallplants.
Alpartreopensin2012atsamecapacity asin2008(rampingfrom75%in2012to 95%capacityin2013).Jamalcoexpansion 1.425to2.8milliontonnealuminain 2014.WindalcoKirkvineclosed.Windalco Ewartonexpandedtocapacityequalto previousKirkvineandEwartoncapacities in2013(rampingfrom75%in2013to 95%in2014)[0.975to1.235million tonnealumina].StAnnBauxite4.2 milliontonnein2010thenupto4.452 milliontonnethereafter.CoalorCNGat Jamalcoin2013andatAlpartand Ewartonin2015.
LimeKilns
Limelinkedtobauxiteandalumina productionbasedonexistingaverage ratiosofbauxitetolimeateachplant. HFOinlimekilns.
Limelinkedtobauxiteandalumina productionbasedonexistingaverage ratiosofbauxitetolimeateachplant. CoalorCNGinlimekilns.
Alpartreopensin2012atsamecapacity (rampingfrom75%in2012to95% capacityin2013).Jamalcoexpansion 1.425to2.8milliontonnealumina)in 2014.WindalcoKirkvinereopenedin 2015at500t/y.WindalcoEwarton expandedtocapacityequaltoprevious KirkvineandEwartoncapacitiesin2013 (rampingfrom75%in2013to95%in 2014)[TotalWindalcofrom0.975in2012, 1.17in2013,1.235in2014,1.71million tonnein2015.]Newaluminaplantadded in2015(2.0milliontonnealuminaupto 2.5milliontonnein2020and3.0million tonnein2025).Allaluminaand associatedlimeplantsuseCNGexcept aluminakilnatnewplantwhichusesCNG orgasifiedcoal.StAnnBauxite4.2 milliontonnein2010thenupto4.452 milliontonnethereafter.CoalorCNGat Jamalcoin2013andatAlpartand Ewartonin2015andnewplantin2015. Limelinkedtobauxiteandalumina productionbasedonexistingaverage ratiosofbauxitetolimeateachplant. Assumeenergyefficiencyfornewlime plantsat5GJ/tonnelime.CoalorCNGin limekilns.
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AluminaKilns
Energyintensity bauxite/alumina
Alpartreopensin2012at80%ofprevious capacity,goingto100%capacityin2013 (4,128Mtto5,156Mtbauxite)usingLNG. JamalcoJU3expansion1,710Mtto2,000 Mtalumina(4,419Mtto6,978Mt bauxite)in2014withLNGandcoal options.WindalcoKirkvineclosed. WindalcoEwartonexpandedtocapacity equaltopreviousKirkvineandEwarton capacitiesin2013(rampingfrom80%in 2013to100%in2014).CoalorCNGat Jamalcoin2013andatAlpartand Ewartonin2015.CNGorSyngasinkilns Mining:Usedavailablehistoricaldatafor Mining:Usedavailablehistoricaldatafor Alpart,StAnnBauxiteandWindalcoand Alpart,StAnn,andWindalcoandthen thenaveragedforJamalco. averagedforJamalco.Continuedvaluefor Boiler(Bayer):Usedhistoricaldatato 2007outto2035. 2007. Boiler(Bayer):Usedhistoricaldatato Aluminakilns:Usedhistoricaldatato 2007.Continuedvaluesfor2007outto 2007. 2035.Note:nomitigationor Limekilns:Usedavailablehistoricaldata improvementinenergy/tonnealumina. forAlpart,Windalco.Assumedsamefor Aluminakilns:Usedhistoricaldatato Rugby 2007.Continuedvaluefor2007outto 2035. Limekilns:UsedhistoricaldataforAlpart, Windalco.AssumedsameforRugby. Continuedvaluefor2007outto2035. NewlimekilnforWindalcoandnewplant at5GJ/tonne
Seeaboveforproductionlevels.Not boilersforBayerprocessandHFOinall aluminakilns.
Alpartreopensin2012at80%ofprevious capacityandgoingto100%capacityin 2013(4,128to5,156Mtbauxite).Jamalco JU3expansion1,710Mtto2,000Mt alumina(4,419Mtto6,978Mtbauxite)in 2014.WindalcoKirkvineclosed.Windalco Ewartonexpandedtocapacityequalto previousKirkvineandEwartoncapacities in2013(rampingfrom80%in2013to 100%in2014).Onenewaluminaplantat 1,500Mtalumina/yin2015at75%then at95%in2016.CNGorSyngasinkilns.
SugarSCJ SugarPrivate
Mining:Usedavailablehistoricaldatafor Alpart,StAnn,andWindalcoandthen averagedforJamalco.Continuedvaluefor 2007outto2035. Boiler(Bayer):Usedhistoricaldatato 2007.Continuedvaluesfor2007outto 2035(needbettervaluesforupgraded AlpartandWindalcoplantstoreflect improvementinenergy/tonnealumina). Aluminakilns:Usedhistoricaldatato 2007.Continuedvaluefor2007outto 2035. Limekilns:UsedhistoricaldataforAlpart, Windalco.AssumedsameforRugby. Continuedvaluefor2007outto2035. NewlimekilnforWindalcoandnewplant at5GJ/tonne. Nodataassumed2008productionlevels Nodataassumed2008productionlevels Nodataassumed2008productionlevels continue continue continue Nodataassumed2008productionlevels Nodataassumed2008productionlevels Nodataassumed2008productionlevels continue continue continue
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Other Manufacturing MunicipalRate60
BOEgrowthat1%/year 2.4%growthto2014and3%thereafter
BOEgrowthat1.2%/year 2.4%growthto2014and3%thereafter
BOEgrowthat1.5%/year
2.4%growthto2014and3%thereafter. IntroductionofLEDstreetlightingto5% in2015and50%in2035 Rate20 1.18%,1.18%,0.44%,0.56%,1.14%and SameasReferenceto2013and1.5% SameasReferenceto2013and2.0% 1.12%growthratesbetween200813and thereafter thereafter.Energyefficiencyimprovesby 1%thereafter 20%in2035 Rate40A# 0.99%,0.99%,2.88%,4.76%and4.53% SameasReferenceto2013and2.5% SameasReferenceto2013and3.0% between200813and2%thereafter.No thereafter.Energyefficiencyimprovesby thereafter.Energyefficiencyimprovesby changeinenergyefficiency 10%between200935 20%between200935. Rate50 Growthrates:2008,3.15%;2010,2.92%; SameasReferenceto2014and SameasReferenceto2014and 2011,0.42%;2012,3.05%;2013,2.83%; thereafter,2.5% thereafter,3.0% 2014andthereafter,2.0% Rate50Other 1.7%growthto2014and0.25% 1.7%growthto2014and0.5%thereafter 1.7%growthto2014and1.0%thereafter thereafter Rate50UWI NeedadditionalUWIData.Assume NeedadditionalUWIData.Assume further150MWhreductionfromACand further350MWhreductionfromACand 50MWhfromotherinitiatives200913 75MWhfromotherinitiatives200913 Government Nochange 10.4%reductioninoverallenergyby 15.9%reductioninoverallenergyby 2014.Flatthereafter. 2014. NWC Notenomitigationinitiatives NWCPhase1.Assumed5%/yearfor NWCPhase2.Assumed10%/yearin 200911foratotalof15%reduction 201213foratotalof20%reduction Hospitals Notenomitigationinitiatives.Assumed HospitalAC:11.8%2011+5y HospitalAC:2.29%2016+5y averageelectricityover200008forfuture HospitalLighting:0.54%2011+2y HospitalLighting:3.79%2013+4y HospitalOther:5.66%2015+4y years. HospitalOther:3.96%2012+3y HospitalRefrigeration:0.41%2018+3y HospitalRefrigeration:5%2013+5y Totalreductioninelectricityuse:12.15% HospitalFuels:1.22%reduction Totalreductioninelectricity:14.83% 3%reduction/yearfor201014(inclusive) Additional5%reductioninelectricityuse Othergovt(includes Notenomitigationinitiatives inelectricity[equivalentto14.2% by2014 allgovtexceptNWC andhospitals) reductionby2014] Transport Growthinfleet 1%to2012,0.5%to2020,0.1%to2035 1.5%to2012,1.0%to2020,0.1%to2035 2.0%to2012,1.5%to2020,0.1%to2035
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E10market penetration E20,E25,E30orE85 introduction Lowsulphur gasoline&diesel Biodiesel introduction Impactofcross countryhighways (Highway2000, NorthCoast Highway) JUTC&MBM
100%by2010 Noinitiatives 2014 None KingstonBushyParkandMontegoBay/ PortAntoniocompleted;SpanishTown OchoRiosin2012;SandyBayFourPaths FourPathsWilliamsfield(2020) None
100%by2010 Noinitiatives 2014 Tobedetermined AsforReference
100%by2010 Noinitiatives 2014 Tobedetermined AsforReference
None CNGtaxi& passengercars CNG None None Othertransport busesHDGV None Otherbusesand HDDV Growthinairtraffic Assume5%growthinLTOs NonEnergySectorEffects Agriculture Nonewinitiatives Increaseinsheep population Increaseinother animalpopulation Rice Biogasinitiatives Nonewinitiatives Nonewinitiativesbeyondcurrent Nonewinitiatives
10%ofJUTCandMBMfleetby2020and 20%by2035 0.1%ofLDGVby2020and0.2%by2035 5%offleetby2020 0.3%by2020;0.6%by2035 (1000and2000vehicles) 1%by2020;2%by2035 (200and400vehicles) Assume7%growthinLTOs
15%ofJUTCandMBMfleetby2020and 30%by2035 0.2%ofLDGVby2020and0.4%by2035 10%offleetby2020 0.6%by2020;1.2%by2035 (2000and4000vehicles) 2%by2020;4%by2035 (400and800vehicles) Assume9%growthinLTOs Herdneededtoreplace80%ofimportsby 2015hasnegligibleimpactonCH4 emissions NegligibleimpactonCH4emissions(for localpork,beefproduction) 25,000haby2011.Increasingby populationgrowthrate Needadditionaldata
Herdneededtoreplace80%ofimportsby 2015hasnegligibleimpactonCH4 emissions NegligibleimpactonCH4emissions(for localpork,beefproduction) 25,000haby2011.Increasingby populationgrowthrate Needadditionaldata
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Landfillemissions
Populationgrowthprojections
Populationgrowthprojections(lessEFW waste)
Populationgrowthprojections(lessEFW waste)
Forestry Programtoreducedeforestationrateto Programtoreducedeforestationrateto Programtoreduce Nonewinitiatives zeroby2013 zeroby2013 deforestationrate tozeroby2013 Nonewinitiatives Nomeasurableeffectsoexcluded Nomeasurableeffectsoexcluded Programtoplant trees(reforestation) %increasein Nonewinitiatives Nomeasurableeffectsoexcluded Nomeasurableeffectsoexcluded sustainableforest harvesting(targetto bedetermined) Industry Cement Basedonclinkerproduction Basedonclinkerproduction Basedonclinkerproduction Lime Basedonlimeproduction Basedonlimeproduction Basedonlimeproduction Coke BasedonPetCokeproject BasedonPetCokeproject BasedonPetCokeproject Needdataavailable Biogasgeneration Basedonexistingnumberofbiogasunits Needdataavailable initiatives remainingthesame # JPSRate40adjustedtoavoiddoublecountingofPetrojamandCCCLelectricityuseandalsotoincludetheJPSOtherclasswith3customersandrenamedas Rate40A
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Appendix3.2:ScenariosforTransformationandEnergyResources TransformationCategory Size Reference(REF) Transmission&Distribution ElectricityDistribution Lossesreducedfrom23.8%to 16.3%in2014 Oilrefining OilRefining Upgradein2014.Anyproduct shortfallmetbyimports;Petcoke, VGOandsulphurbyproducts
ElectricityGeneration BogueGasTurbines BogueGT6&GT8 BogueCGCT BogueCGCTinletadjustment BogueGT6&GT8 ConvertBoguetoCNG HuntsBayGasTurbines HuntsBayB6 RockfortJPSenhancement JamaicaBroilers RockfortJPS UpgradeRockfortUnit#2 JEP JPPC IPP(JEPMarcusGarvey) Jamalco OldHarbour14 179.3MW Continue Add4MWtoeachengine installation2010 40MW Continue 10MW 2009 8MW 2015 120MW 32.5MW Continue 68.5MW Retirein2017 36MW Add4MWin2010 16MW Retiredin2004 36MW Continue 2MW 2009 90 Continue 60MW Continue 60MW 2010 12.1MW Continue 223MW RetireOH1in2015(30MW) RetireOH3andOH4in2018 RetireOH2in2017(60MW) 21.59MW Continue 0MW Restoreto0.8MW2009 6.4MW 2013
Scenario2(S2) Lossesreducedfrom23.8% to16.3%in2014 Upgradein2014.Any productshortfallmetby imports;Petcoke,VGOand sulphurbyproducts 2013 Retirein2017 Retirein2014
Scenario3(S3) Lossesreducedfrom23.8%to 16.3%in2014 Upgradein2014.Anyproduct shortfallmetbyimports; Petcoke,VGOandsulphurby products
Hydro RestoreConstantSpringHydro Maggottyhydro
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NewhydroA
15.3MW Noneofthesenewhydro
NewhydroB
24.6MW Noneofthesenewhydro
Wigton Munro WigtonWindFarmExpansion PetCoke OldHarbourPhase1 Coal LNG OldHarbourPhase2 Coal LNG WastetoEnergy MunrowindJPS MunroSchool Windalcoexpansion60MW Coalor Nuclear100MW NewPetcokeatCementor Bauxiteplant
20MW Continue 0.36MW Continue 18MW 2011 120MW 2014 150MW 2013 150MW 2013 65MW 3.0MW 2010 20MW 100MW 100MW 100MW
2011SpanishR(2.5MW) 2012GreatR(8.0MW) 2013MarthaBrae(4.8MW) 2015Laughlands(2.0MW) 2017Yallahs(2.6MW) 2019BackRioGrande(20MW) 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2015 2014 2018 2015 2015 2025 2030 2020100MW 2025200MW(total)
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Appendix3.3:MEMEnergyProjectsandProposalsAssignedtoMitigationAssessmentScenarios Project/Initiative ImplementingAgency Status POLICIES 1 NationalEnergyPolicy MEM TaskForcemeetsweeklyaswellasworkin 200830 betweenmeetingstodeliveronvery aggressiveschedules.InputsfromDraft GreenPaper,PrimeMinistersNational EnergyCommittee,PrimeMinistersTask ForceonEnergy,andPublicConsultationon EnergyPolicyGreenPaper 2 EnergyConservationand MEM DraftPolicywasTabledinParliamentinJuly, EfficiencyPolicy200822 2008asanaddendumtothe(previous) EnergyPolicyGreenPaper 3 DevelopmentofNet MEM PetrocaribeFinancingisoneofthesources MeteringPolicyand identified.Activeparticipationin Legislation negotiationsisongoingthroughthe PetrocaribeTechnicalWorkGroupon RenewableEnergy.Theproposedprojectwas approvedbutwillbeimplementedundera regionalprogramme.
Remarks[scenarioassignment/comment] TaskForceestablishedtofasttrack completionoftheEnergyPolicybymidJune, 2009. [NotapplicabletoScenarios]
[NotapplicabletoScenarios]
4 5
CarbonPolicyDevelopment MEM/PCJ BioFuelsPolicy Development
TaskForceestablishedtodevelopJamaicas positiononCarbonemissionsandtrading MEM/PCJ/Ministryof DevelopmentofBioFuelsPolicyandAction [Biodieselintroductionasfuel;penetration Agriculture PlanaimedatBioFuelsPolicySupport tobedetermined.Nodatatoallowinclusion CapacityBuildingforpublicandprivatesector inscenarios] representatives.Landresearchandmapping tosupportlocallygrownfeedstock FontHillBioDieselexperimentandpre feasibilityassessmentforthenationalbio dieselplan.BioFuelsPricingandTaxation Study.BiomassStudy
Appropriatelegislationisrequiredto standardizeandregularizetheway distributedgenerationsourcesare interconnectedtothenationalelectricgrid. Thiswillfacilitategreaterpenetrationof renewableenergysourcesandhelpto achievegovernmenttargetsforfuel diversificationandrenewableenergy development [NotapplicabletoScenarios] [NotapplicabletoScenarios]
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Project/Initiative ImplementingAgency RevisionofGOJ MEM/MF&PS ProcurementPolicy(some energycomponents) GOJPolicyonEnvironmental OPM/EMD Stewardship(Draft EnvironmentalManagement SystemsPolicy)
Status
Remarks[scenarioassignment/comment] Policycompletedandimplemented [NotapplicabletoScenarios] [NotapplicabletoScenarios]
8 9
10 11
LEGISLATIONS,STANDARDSANDCODES PrimaryLegislationforthe MEM/OUR ElectricitySector EquipmentStandardsand MEM/BSJ LegislationforEnergyEnd UseDevices NationalPetroleum MEM/BSJ StandardsandCodes PETROLEUM PetrojamRefineryExpansion PCJ/Petrojam
12 13 14 15
E10StorageCapacity Expansion OilandGasExploration
PCJ/Petrojam /PetrojamEthanol PCJ
Willreplaceoutdatedlegislationsandacts governingtheelectricitysector DevelopmentofStandardsandcodesforEnd UseDevicesandtherequisiteLegislationto enforcecompliance DevelopmentofNationalStandardsand CodestoregulatethePetroleumSector ExpansionoftheRefineryfromproductionof 35,000bblofoilperdayto50,000bblperday capacity InstallationofStoragefacilityinWesternend oftheislandtofacilitateE10Rollout
[NotapplicabletoScenarios] Scenarios2and3AssumeJamaicanenergy efficienciesfornewappliancessoldlagUSor Canadianby2to4years [NotapplicabletoScenarios] PetcokeCogenerationProjecttogenerate 120MWofelectricity [Allscenarios] [Allscenariosafter2010(firstfullyear)]
OilTrading PCJ Proposalfordataexchange PCJ andtechnicalassistance regardingoilandgas explorationactivities
[NotapplicabletoScenariosassumenone isfound] [NotapplicabletoScenarios] PCJisinterestedinestablishingaprogramof Itisproposedthatdialoguebetween data/informationexchangeandtechnical technicalpersonnelinCubaandJamaicabe assistanceasitrelatestooilandgas initiatedtodiscussthescopeoftechnical exploration.JamaicaandCubashareasimilar (mainlygeological)issuesfaced.Asharingof geologicalhistory.Oilandgasexploration experiencewithregardstothe activitiesarebeingconductedin12offshore administrationofexplorationcontractswill blocksinJamaica.Cubahasmadeimportant alsobewelcomed.Itisanticipatedthatsuch
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Project/Initiative
ImplementingAgency
16
LiquefiedNaturalGas(LNG) MEM/PCJ
17
EthanolBlendedFuel(E10)
MEM/PCJ
Status economicfindsinitsoffshoreacreagetothe north.Thestrategyforfueldiversification requiresthatallviableoptionsare considered.Theintroductionofnaturalgasis oneoptionbeingconsideredforregional cooperationforitsintroduction/expansionin theregionthroughPetrocaribeinitiative throughtheworkingteamongas. DevelopmentoffacilitytodistributeLNG Securelongtermcontractforthesupplyof NaturalGas 10%EthanolFuelBlendintroducedinthe transportsectorinOctober2008
Remarks[scenarioassignment/comment] dialoguecouldtakeplacemainlyviawritten correspondencewiththeexchangeof technicaldatabyparcelpostifnecessary. Futureworkinthelatterphaseofthis projectcouldseetheexchangeoftechnical personnelbetweenthetwocountries,ifthis isdeemedcosteffective. [NotapplicabletoScenarios] [Scenarios2and3]
18 19 20 21 22 23 24
PETCOMRationalization BilateralandMultilateral Relations RussianNuclear
PCJ/PETCOM PCJ
Programmetorationalizetheoperationsof PETCOMtocreateamoreviablebusiness Strengthenbilateralandmultilateralventures [NotapplicabletoScenarios] Nuclearpowerbargefacility
Fullrolloutdependentonadditionalstorage capacityinstallationinWesternendofthe island [Allscenariosafter2010(firstfullyear)] [NotapplicabletoScenarios]
[ScenarioS3NGNUafter2025butno assumptionofsourcethough] [Allscenarios] [ReferenceScenario] [Scenarios2and3] [Insufficientcostdatatoalloweconomic dispatchtobeusedinLEAP]
25
ELECTRICITYGENERATIONEXPANSION PetroleumCoke120MW PCJ/Petrojam Plant JEP60MWPlant MEM/OUR CompressedNaturalGasfor MEM/OUR JPSPowerPlants MeritOrderDispatchStudy MEM/OUR toidentifyanappropriate ModelforJamaica NationalEnergyPlanning MEM/CabinetOffice andEfficiencyStudy
ACRESManagementConsultingcompleted Studywascompletedin2007 studyontheelectricitypowersectorand [Notapplicable/relevanttoScenarios] providedaroadmapfordevelopmentswithin
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26
Project/Initiative
27
28
29
30
Status thesector Improvementsinthe OUR ConsequenttotheAllIslandBlackoutin OperationsofJPS electricitysuppliesonJuly15,2006,theGOJ instructedthataforensicinvestigationbe conductedintothecircumstanceswhichled tothefailureoftheelectricitysystemand howtopreventsuchoccurrenceinthefuture Transmissionand MEM/OUR DevelopmentofaTransmissionand DistributionCodeforJPS Distributioncodeinprogress.Aconsultantis operations engagedbyJPStodeveloptheCode ENERGYCONSERVATIONANDEFFICIENCY(ECE)ANDRENEWABLEENERGY(RE)SOURCES IBDTechnicalAssistancefor MEM/PIOJ Technicalassistancetobeexecutedjointlyby EnergyConservationand theIDBandMEMtoevaluateenergy EfficiencyinthePublic consumptionwithinthepublicsectorand Sector developplantoimplementcorrective measures TechnicalAssistancefrom MEM Discussionstobecontinuedonobtaining theWorldBank additionalassistancefromWorldBankto assistJamaicawithitsenergychallenges TechnicalAssistancefrom MEM Discussionstobecontinuedwiththe theUnitedStatesEmbassy objectivetogetassistancefromtheUS EmbassytoassistJamaicawithitsenergy challenges
ImplementingAgency
Remarks[scenarioassignment/comment] Somerecommendationimplementedbut othersareoutstanding [Notapplicable/relevanttoScenarios]
[NotapplicabletoScenarios]
WorktostartQ2ofFY2009/10 [NotapplicabletoScenariosnoteseparate measuresforhospitals,NWCandOtherGovt electricityuse] VideoConferencesetforJune2,2009 [Notapplicable/relevanttoScenarios]
31
Improvelightingenergy efficiencyinhospitalsand schools
MEM/PCJ
Opportunitiesidentifiedintheareasof WastetoEnergy,BioFuelsCooperation, RenewableEnergyPublicAwareness, EthanolExports,andthePetcokePower PlantexpansionProject [Notapplicable/relevanttoScenarios] ReplacementofT12fluorescenttubeswith Projectalreadyidentifiedandproposal T8tubesandreplacingmagneticballasts submittedforPetrocaribefinancing.The withelectronicballastsinhospitalsand proposedprojectwasapprovedbutwillbe implementedunderaregionalprogramme. schools.[Scenarios2and3] PetrocaribeFinancingisoneofthepossible Energyauditsalreadycompletedfor22 sourcesidentified.Activeparticipationin hospitalsand8schools.Theprojectedcost savingforallthehospitalsisUS$131,687per negotiationsisongoingthroughthe yearandtheassociatedimplementationcost PetrocaribeTechnicalWorkTeamonSavings
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Project/Initiative
ImplementingAgency
32
Improveenergyefficiencyof MEM/PCJ streetlights
33
Improveenergyefficiencyof MEM/PCJ trafficlights
34
Improveenergyefficiencyin MEM/PCJ theNationalWater /NWC Commission(NWC)byusing energyefficientpump
Status Remarks[scenarioassignment/comment] isUS$213,235.Thisgivesanoverallsimple andEfficientUseofEnergy. paybackperiodof1.6years.Theprojected costsavingforalltheschoolsisUS$3,591,464 peryearandtheassociatedimplementation costisUS$5,815,500.Thisgivesanoverall simplepaybackperiodof1.6years. Solarphotovoltaictechnologywillbeapplied PetrocaribeFinancingisoneofthesources forpoweringand/orswitchingofstreet identified.Activeparticipationin lightsandforgenerallightinginpublicspaces negotiationsisongoingthroughthe PetrocaribeTechnicalWorkGroupon toimproveefficiencyandensurethatthe lightsarenotleftonindaylight.Inaddition, RenewableEnergy.[Scenarios2&3] discussionsareunderwaywithseveral businessinterests(private)thathave expressedwillingnesstoprovidesolarvoltaic poweringofstreetlightsthroughoutJamaica. Apilotprojectistobecommencedinthe communityofPortmoreforwhichsome preliminaryengineeringandeconomic analysesarebeendone. Theproposedprojectforreplacing PetrocaribeFinancingisoneofthesources incandescentlightbulbsusedfortraffic identified.Activeparticipationin signalswithLightEmittingDiodes(LED)was negotiationsisongoingthroughthe approvedforPetrocaribefinancingbutwillbe PetrocaribeTechnicalWorkTeamonSavings implementedunderaregionalprogramme. andEfficientUseofEnergy.Thetrafficlights inJamaicause75wattincandescentbulbs. Whenthesebulbsarereplacedtheenergy savingswillbeverysignificant.[Nodata availabletoallowinclusioninscenarios(in Governmentsubbranch?] Energyauditorstoundertaketheauditswere TheNWCaccountsfor47%ofpublicsector prequalifiedandrecommendationfor energyconsumption.Itisplannedtoreduce contractawardwasmadebytheNWCtothe energycostinthisareabyinstallingenergy efficientpumpmotorsandpowerfactor NationalContractsCommission(NCC).
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Project/Initiative motorsandcarryingout powerfactorcorrection
ImplementingAgency
Status PetrocaribeFinancingisoneofthesources identified.Activeparticipationin negotiationsisongoingthroughthe PetrocaribeTechnicalWorkTeamonSavings andEfficientUseofEnergy.Theproposed projectwasapprovedbutwillbe implementedunderaregionalprogramme.
35
EnergyEducation Programme
36
37
38
MinistryofEnergy/PCJ Cubahasindicatedthatithasavery developedEnergyEducationProgramme whichtargetsallsectorsoftheSociety. JamaicaseffortsatPublicEducationon EnergyConservationandEfficiencycouldbe enhanced. WastetoEnergyProject PCJ/CERE/NSWMA RequestforProposalandinformationon Jamaicaswasteweremadeavailabletolocal andinternationalpotentialinvestorson January19,2009.OnApril30,2009atthe closingdateoftheprocess,submissionswere receivedfromfour(4)internationalfirms, somewithlocalcounterparts.Proposalswere receivedforWastetoElectricity,Wasteto EthanolandGasificationofWastetoproduce Syngasforsaletotheelectricitypower stations MiniHydroDevelopmentto PCJ/CERE EightsitesidentifiedbyPCJfordevelopment get44.7MWandavoid withinJamaica.Focusisonthefollowing importationof202,000Bbls three: LaughlandsGreatRiver2MW ofcrudeannually BackRioGrande2528MWand GreatRiver8MW BioDieselPilotProject MEM/PCJ/CERE Incollaborationwithtertiarystakeholders,a pilotprojectistobeundertakeninvolving
Remarks[scenarioassignment/comment] correctionequipment,aswellasexplorethe opportunityforusingsolarandwinddriven pumps.Inthisrespect,Jamaicahopesto learnfromtheCubanexperience.[Scenario 2in2phasesneedphasereductions[made assumptions]]Othersourcesoffinancewill helptoexpandthescopeandimpactofthis programme Aplanwillbeputinplacetoensure developmentofacohesiveandsustainable publiceducationprogrammethroughout Jamaica.[Notspecificallyincluded]
Evaluationofproposalsinprogress. Anticipatedoutcomesinclude65MWof electricityfromtwoplants,oneinthe EasternandtheotherintheWesternsideof theisland,oralternately20milliongallons offuelbasedontheproposalsreceived. Avoidedimportationof260,000bblofcrude oilannually [Scenario65MWEFWinallscenarios]
Otherprojectstobepursuedincludethe following: SpanishRiver2.6MW YallahsRiver2.5MW MarthaBrae4.6MW [Scenario2andScenario3] Thebiodieselproducedisexpectedto satisfyASTMstandardsandwillbetestedin
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Project/Initiative
ImplementingAgency
39
Useofbiomasstogenerate PCJ electricity
Status cultivationof80100acresofmarginallands withbiodieselfeedstocksuchascastor, jatrophaandsunflower Projectproposalfortheuseofbiomassfor theproductionofupto200MWofelectricity
Remarks[scenarioassignment/comment] busengines [NotapplicabletoScenarios]
40 41
Dr.MorrisWallenWind BiogasAssessmentStudy
PCJ PCJ/SRC
42
Barma,AmericaLLC
PCJ
43
EnergyKnowledge Management
MinistryofEnergy
44 45 46
PublicAwareness Programmes ScienceCompetitionin Schools EnergyConservationand Efficiency(ECE)and RenewableEnergy(RE)in
PCJ PCJ PCJ
MemorandumofUnderstandingsigned betweenPCJandBiomassInvestmentGroup (BIG)forapproximately30MWofelectricity. Needadditionalinfo. WindFarmandCoastalProtectionProjectfor [CouldincludeinScenario3needproposed thePalisadoesStrip MW] Feasibilitystudytobiodigestallorganic wasteontheFontHillFarmandpropertyin St.ElizabethforBiogasproduction Proposalfor19.5MWwindpowergeneration Theprojectisselffinancingandpresentsno toJPSthroughWigtonWindFarmLtd. financialorotherrisktoWigton,PCJ,or Jamaica.Estimatedcostis [Scenario2] Initialcontactwasestablishedand CubasEnergyDatabaseManagement preliminarydiscussionfordatadefinitionand systemprovidesasystemofenergydata specificationforsystemrequirementbegan. collectionandgathering,information analysisandmanagementforstrategic planningoftheenergysectoris commendable.Informationatdifferent levelsandfordifferenttargetgroups providesabasisforsoundplanningand developmentofthesector. [Notapplicable/relevantforscenarios] [Notspecificallyincluded]
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47
Project/Initiative PrivateSector RuralElectrification Programme(REP)
ImplementingAgency REP
Status Completeconstructionof47Kmof distributionlines.Completewiringof850 housesunderGOJ2006/07PhaseII. Construct50Kmofdistributionlines. Completewiringof750housesunder RevolvingLoanFund.Continuetopursue PrivateProjects.Securefundingunderthe BandesAgreementforUS$9.4M. PetrocaribeFinancingisoneofthesources identified.Activeparticipationin negotiationsisongoingthroughthe PetrocaribeTechnicalWorkGroupon RenewableEnergy.Theproposedproject wasapprovedbutwillbeimplementedunder aregionalprogramme.Additionalfinancing willberequiredtoextendthisprogramme. PetrocaribeFinancingisoneofthesources identified.Activeparticipationin negotiationsisongoingthroughthe PetrocaribeTechnicalWorkGroupon RenewableEnergy.Theproposedproject wasapprovedbutwillbeimplementedunder aregionalprogramme. Aproposalforamanufacturingfacilityforthe productionofsolarPVmodelsandpanelsand solarwaterheaterswasprepared.Petro caribeFinancingisoneofsourcesidentified. Activeparticipationinnegotiationsisongoing throughthePetrocaribeTechnicalWork GrouponRenewableEnergy.Theproposed projectwasapprovedbutwillbe
Remarks[scenarioassignment/comment] [Allscenariosaspenetrationofhouseholds withelectricity]
48
Ruralelectrificationforrural MEM/REP housesandcommunities usingRenewableEnergy (RE)solutions
49
CapacitybuildingforRE technologiesandtheir development
MEM/CERE
50
Manufacturingplantfor solarPVmodules/panels andsolarwaterheaters
MEM/Ministryof Industry,Investment andCommerce
CubasuseofREandalternativeenergy systemstoprovideelectricityandenergyto ruralresidentsandthosewithouteasy accesstothegridhasdemonstrated significantreachtothousandsof communities.Theirinnovativestrategiesto improvethequalityoflifeprovidemodels forreplication. [Seeaboveitem48] TheknowledgebaseonREinCubais developingand,whileJamaicahasaCentre ofExcellenceforRenewableEnergy(CERE), thehumanresourceandtechnicalfacilities andcapacityavailableinCubaprovidesfor synergiesthatcanbebeneficialtoJamaica [Notapplicable/relevantforscenarios] Alimitedcapacityexistsfortheproduction ofPVModulesinCuba.Thiscapability needstobestrengthenedandJamaicacould playapartinordertoprovidemutual benefits. BothJamaicaandCubaarelocatedinthe samegeographiczonethathasan abundanceofsunshine.Thepartnership
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Project/Initiative
ImplementingAgency
51
Replacementof incandescentlightbulbs withCompactFluorescent Lamps(CFLs)
MEM/PCJ
52
CoolGreenhouse Technology
MEM
53
GreenhouseTechnology
MEM/Ministryof Agriculture
Status implementedunderaregionalprogramme. ItisfurtherproposedthatJamaicaandCuba developandusesolarenergysystemsasa solutiontosupplementingenergyneeds. Opportunitiesexistforexpandingtheproduct linestoincludemanufactureandproduction ofothersolarpoweredequipmentsuchas: o SolarCropdryers o Solarcoolingequipment o Otherphotovoltaicsolutions. ThenextphaseofthedistributionofCFLsas partofthegiftfromCubawillcommencein anotherfewweeks.Dialogueand cooperationwiththeCubanEmbassyin JamaicaisongoingandtheCuban governmenthasagreedfortheremaining bulbstobedistributedtoimprovethe lightingefficiencywithingovernment buildingsandfacilities.Afteranauditto determinetherequirementsperMinistryand theirrespectiveagenciesiscompleted,the appropriatecontrolandaccounting mechanismswillbeadheredto. CoolGreenhousetechnologyforplanting vegetablesandotherfoodproduceisbeing developedinCuba.Anopportunityexistsfor Jamaicatoparticipateandbenefitinthisnew technology.Liaisonwillcontinuewiththe Cubanofficialstoseehowbestthis partnershipcanbedeveloped. AproposalforcooperationwithCubais preparedandassoonasfundingisidentified andsecured,Cubawillbeinvitedtocomeand
Remarks[scenarioassignment/comment] wouldfacilitategrowthinsolarutilization withintheregion.Cubahasdonesignificant workinthisareaandtheresultsarequite impressive.Jamaicacanbenefitfromsuch experience.Collaborationonresearchand testingofsolardevicesandequipment,in additiontoimprovingsolarequipment efficienciesisanotherareaforbilateral cooperationwithCuba [Notapplicable/relevantforscenarios] Giftof4millionCFLsfromCubatohelp improvesavingsandefficientuseofenergy inJamaicaisbyfarthelargestenergy conservationandefficiencyprogramme undertakeninJamaica.Theremaining (approximately365,000)bulbsaretobe distributedasreplacementsforthe inefficientbulbscurrentlyinuse. [Allscenarios]
TheworldfoodcrisisandJamaicas challengedictatethatanypartnershipinthis regardcouldreapsignificantbenefitsfor bothcountriesinenergyandfoodsecurity [Notapplicable/relevantforscenarios]
Greenhousetechnologyisimportantto Jamaicasfoodandenergysecurity. [Notapplicable/relevantforscenarios]
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Project/Initiative
ImplementingAgency
54
CapacityBuildingforCarbon MEM/PCJ Trading
55
56
Thecapacityforcarbontradingmustbe strengthenedsothatasJamaicadevelopsits renewableenergypotentialandimplements effectiveenergyconservationandefficiency programmes,thecountryscontributionto environmentalprotectionwillbe demonstrated. [Notapplicable/relevantforscenarios] WindFarmDevelopment MEM/PCJ/CERE Therecentprojectlaunchfortheexpansion Cubaisseriouslyexpandingitswindenergy (RetractableTower) oftheWigtonwindfarmgenerationplantisa contributiontoelectricityproduction.Their reminderthatJamaicahasthecapacityand useofRetractablearmwindturbinesisa willtodevelopitsrenewableenergysources. safeguardagainstdamagebyhurricaneforce winds.Jamaicaneedsthistechnologyfor Whencompleted,thiswillresultinthe futurewindenergydevelopment increasecapacityofthefarmby18.0MW. PetrocaribeFinancingisoneofthesources [Notapplicable/relevantforscenarios] identified.Activeparticipationin negotiationsisongoingthroughthe PetrocaribeTechnicalWorkGroupon RenewableEnergy.Theproposedprojectwas approvedbutwillbeimplementedundera regionalprogramme. DeterminationofJamaicas MEM/Energy/PCJ/CER AnMOUhasbeensignedbetweenPCJand Activeparticipationinnegotiationsis windenergypotential E/WigtonWindFarm UWIforpartnershipinupdatingJamaicas ongoingthroughthePetrocaribeTechnical Ltd. windenergypotential.Assoonasfundingis WorkGrouponRenewableEnergy.The identifiedandsecuredaconsultantwillbe proposedprojectwasapprovedbutwillbe engagedtoconductthestudyofJamaicas implementedunderaregionalprogramme. Also,anapplicationforfinancialsupportwas windpotentialinordertodeterminethe currentpotentialfordevelopment. madetoSECCIfortheirconsideration. PetrocaribeFinancingandIDBsSustainable Thelaststudyconductedwillbeupdated EnergyandClimateChangeInitiative(SECCI) andmadeavailableforinvestment aretwoofthesourcesoffinanceidentified. opportunities.
Status supportJamaicaintheuseandfurther developmentofthistechnology ATaskForcewasestablishedcomprising membersfromseveralMinistriesandState AgenciestodevelopaPolicyFramework Document.
Remarks[scenarioassignment/comment]
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57
Project/Initiative
ImplementingAgency
Status Proposalfordevelopmentofupto80MWof hydropowerelectricityplantand10Mwof WastetoEnergypowerplantbyinvestor GlobalGreenEnergyServices(GGES) InitialdiscussionsstartedwithCubaandwill continue.Financialsupportwillbeprovided underthePetrocaribeinitiativethroughthe TechnicalWorkGrouponrenewableenergy. PetrocaribeFinancingisoneofthesources identified.Activeparticipationin negotiationsisongoingthroughthe PetrocaribeTechnicalWorkGroupon RenewableEnergy.Theproposedprojectwas approvedbutwillbeimplementedundera regionalprogramme. Expansionofwindfarmby18MW
HydroandWasteToEnergy MEM/OUR development
58
SolarRadiationandIntensity MEM Mapping
Remarks[scenarioassignment/comment] [Notapplicable/relevantforscenarios] Investorwilldoentiredevelopmentwithout anyguaranteefromtheGOJoranypayment requireduntilelectricityissenttothe nationalelectricgrid. [Notapplicable/relevantforscenarios] Cubasachievementinthisareaprovidesa basisforfurthercollaboration. [Notapplicable/relevantforscenarios] Successfulimplementationofthisproject willsignificantlyimprovetheefficiency, availabilityandprofitabilityofthestate ownedwindfarm.[Scenario2]
59
WigtonWindFarmReactive MEM/PCJ/CERE Power(MVARS) Improvement
60
WigtonWindFarm Expansion
MEM/PCJ/WWFL
61 62
CarbonTradingFramework PCJ/CERE/WWFL Demonstrationprojectfora Ministryof 2.0MWgearlessboxwind Energy/PCJ/CERE turbine(turbinewithout gearbox)
63
MarketDrivenInitiativeto
PowerpurchaseAgreement(PPA)withJPS tobenegotiatedfortheexpandedWind Farm[Scenarios2&3] NegotiateCarbonTradingArrangementsfor expandedfacilitytobedone [Notapplicable/relevantforscenarios] Developmentofaframeworkforfuturewind [Notapplicable/relevantforscenarios] projects PetrocaribeFinancingisoneofthesources Thisnewtechnologicalapplicationin identified.Activeparticipationin Jamaicawillincreasetheoptionsforwind negotiationsisongoingthroughthe energydevelopment. PetrocaribeTechnicalWorkGroupon [Notapplicable/relevantforscenarios] RenewableEnergy.Theproposedprojectwas approvedbutwillbeimplementedundera regionalprogramme. [Notapplicable/relevantforscenarios]
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64
Project/Initiative EncourageGreaterUseof RenewableEnergyand EnergyEfficiency Technologies SolarPVSystemstosupply electricityforschools
ImplementingAgency
Status
Remarks[scenarioassignment/comment]
MEM/PCJ
Aprojecttosupplyelectricitytoschoolshas beendeveloped.PetrocaribeFinancingisone ofthesourcesidentified.Activeparticipation innegotiationsisongoingthroughthe PetrocaribeTechnicalWorkGroupon RenewableEnergy.Theproposedprojectwas approvedbutwillbeimplementedundera regionalprogramme.
TheproposedPVsystemwillbegridtied withoutenergystoragesolutionstherefore isdependentonthedevelopmentofNet MeteringPolicyandlegislationtosupport implementation [Needadditionaldataincludein Governmentsubbranch?]
65
66
ENERGYDATABASEANDPLANNING PlanningandDataBase OPM/EMD Managementfor SustainableDevelopment EnergyDatabase MEM ManagementSystem Vision2030Jamaica NationalDevelopmentPlan CarbonEmissionsDatabase (Software)formonitoring andmanagingenergy consumptiondatain ministriesandagencies (LPG,electricity,gasoline anddieseloil) PublicEducationInitiatives onEnergy EnergyConservation Officers PIOJ OPM/EMD
[Notapplicable/relevanttoscenarios]
67 68
InternationalAtomicEnergyAgency(IAEA) ModuleforAssessmentofEnergyDemand MAED PIOJledaTaskForcetodevelopVision2030 DevelopmentFrameworkforJamaica
[Notapplicable/relevanttoscenarios]
Finalreportcirculated [Notapplicabletoscenarios] [Notapplicabletoscenarios]
69 70
NEPA MEM/CabinetOffice
AssignmentofEnergyConservationOfficers ineachMinistry,AgencyandDepartmentto monitorandcontrolpublicsectorenergy
Reducepublicsectorconsumptionby15% [Scenarios2,3]
SNCOFJAMAICA
244
71 72
Project/Initiative TraininginEnergy Management SecondNational Communicationtothe UNFCCCProject JamaicaProductivityCentre MonitoringofEnergyUse EnergyandPower EvaluationProgramme (ENPEP) NationalEnergy CoordinatorsCommittee EndUseSurveyfor CommercialandPublic Sectors GOJEnergyManagement Guidelines RenewableEnergy Development InnerCitySchoolsEnergy ConservationProgramme
ImplementingAgency MEM/CabinetOffice consumption
Status
Remarks[scenarioassignment/comment] [Notapplicable/relevanttoscenarios] [Notapplicable/relevanttoscenarios]
OPM/EMD/ MeteorologicalOffice MinistryofFinance andthePublicService MEM
73 74
[Notapplicabletoscenarios] [Notapplicabletoscenarios]
75 76
MEM MEM/STATIN/PIOJ
[Notapplicabletoscenarios] [Notapplicabletoscenarios]
77 78 79
OPM/EMD PCJ/CERE PCJ
Researchonrenewableenergies,assessment, designandimplementationofREprojects Adaptingconservationandenergyefficiency forlocaluse,involvedinprojectonenergy savingbulbs,publicsectorenergysystems upgrade,energyconservationincentive programmesforinnercityschools EnhancingtheCompetitiveAdvantageofthe ManufacturingSectorthroughEnergy Conservation(Paper) EthanolPlantDevelopment
[Notapplicabletoscenarios] [Notapplicabletoscenarios] [Notapplicabletoscenarios]
80
OTHER JMAEnergyConservation Programme ChicagoBasedProject VirginiaBasedProject Ethanolproject
MIIC/JMA
[Nodataavailable]
81 82 83
[Nodataavailable] [Nodataavailable] ColombianEmbassy [Nodataavailable]
SNCOFJAMAICA
245
246
CHAPTER 4: ............PROGRAMMES CONTAINING MEASURES TO FACILITATE ADEQUATE ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE Climatechangeimpactsfortheyears2015,2030,and2050,wereconsideredaspartofthevulnerability and adaptation (V&A) assessments undertaken for five priority sectors: agriculture, water resources, humanhealth,coastalzonesandhumansettlements,andtourism. MethodologicalApproach TheUNDPAdaptationPolicyFrameworkmethodologyprovidedtheoverarchingapproachfortheV&A assessments, coupled with the most appropriate existing analytical tools. Maximising stakeholder engagement was a high priority for the sectoral assessments, to the extent possible under the timeframeandfundingcircumstances.Thisincludedvariousworkshopsthroughouttheprocesstoinvite technicalinputsontheV&Aassessmentsandtheresultingpoliciesandmeasuresrecommended. FutureclimatescenariosweredevelopedusingthosepresentedintheIPCCSpecialReportonEmission Scenarios(IPCC,2000),whicharedrivenbydemographicchanges,GDPgrowth,energyandtechnology change, as well as land use change. Climate modelling results were produced by the UWI Climate Modelling Group across the A1B, A2, B1 and B2 scenarios of the IPCC using three different general circulations models (GCM) (HAD, MRI, ECH), one regional climate model (RCM) (PRECIS), as well as statistical downscaling at two locations using the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM) developed by Wilbyetal(2002)(Table4.1). Table4.1:SummaryofClimateModellingApplications
Analysisoftheresultsproducedbyeachoftheseapproachesshowedsomeconsistency,butalsoboth modelandscenariovariationsacrossthesamescenariosandmodelsrespectively,whenlookingforward at2015,2030,2050and2080.Giventheseresults,itwasdecidedthatinassessingthepotentialimpacts ofclimatechangeonthewaterresourcesandagriculturesectors,theresultsfromtheGCMmodelling wouldbetakenforwardasapooledsetofestimates For the tourism sector, a model was created based primarily on population components, with the followingassumptions: 247
Population size, growth, quality and capabilities are major variables that dictate the cost, progressandoverallperformanceofthesocioeconomyandattitudestowardsenvironment. Political lobby forces are dictated by population attitudes in most modern societies. This is a highsymptomofdemocratization. The PRECIS model, with a resolution of 50km x 50km, was used to generate projections for seven regionsofJamaica(Figure4.1). Figure4.1:ThesevenregionsofJamaicadefinedusingthePRECISregionalclimatemodel
5 1
6 2
7 3 4
4.1Existing&FutureClimateintheCaribbeanandJamaica The annual average rainfall in Jamaica is 1,871 mm based on data from the National Meteorological Servicefor1981to2007.Whiletherearenodiscernablelongtermtrendsinannualrainfalltotals,the maximumlevel of consecutive drydays is increasingandthenumber of heavyraindaysis increasing. While there are variations in tropical and extratropical cyclone activities, such as hurricanes and typhoons, daily temperatures are at an average of 26.2 Celsius to 30.0 Celsius over coastal areas. According to the 2007 IPCC 4th Assessment Report, warming within the Caribbean ranged from 0.0 Celsiusto0.5Celsiusperdecadefrom1971to2004. ThebestestimatesfortemperatureandprecipitationchangesaresummarisedinTable4.2. Theyare basedonaveragesofA2andB2SRESscenarios.28Theregionsreferredtoarethosegeneratedbythe PRECISmodel(Figure4.1).Thereisanindicationofconsistenttemperaturewarmingacrossallseasons andscenarios.Theprojected1.5 to2.8 Celsiusincreaseintemperatureby2050and2080respectivelywill result in increased evaporation losses, decreased precipitation, and a continuation of rainfall decline. Alsoshownarepercentagechangesinwetdays,wetspelllengthsanddryspelllengthsfortworegions. In general, temperatures will increase and rainfall, wetdays and wetspells will decrease, while dry spellswillincrease.29
28
These scenarios are described in Chen (2008). The average is basically an intermediate scenario between an economydrivenbygrowthinwealthandaneconomywhichconsidersenvironmentalstabilityononehand,andan intermediatescenariobetweenaneconomybasedonglobalizationandaneconomybasedonregionalizationon theotherhand. 29 Wetdays,wetspellsanddryspellsarepreciselydefinedinChen(2008).
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Table4.2: Best Estimates of Absolute Temperature Change and Percentage Change in Rainfall for Jamaica(2050s,2080s) Parameters 2050s 2080s Temperature(degreeCelsius) 1.5 2.8 Precipitation(%change) Region1 0 30 Region2 10 30 Region3 10 20 Region4:Portland Noestimate 40 Region4:St.Thomas Noestimate 20 Region5 10 40 Region6 10 30 Region7 10 30 Region5 Wetday(s)% 24 44 Wetspelllength 7 10 Dryspelllength 32 80 Region3 Wetday(s)% 2 7 Wetspelllength 3 6 Dryspelllength 1 4 Estimates of sea level rise and evapotranspiration were obtained from observations and GCM results reportedbyIPCCWorkingGroup1forIPCCFourthAssessmentReport(Meehl,2007).Bytheendofthe century,sealevelsarealsoexpectedtoriseby0.21mto0.48munderanA1Bscenario,butthemodels excludefuturerapiddynamicalchangesiniceflow.Onestudysuggeststhattherateofrisemayactually double (Science Daily, Feb. 12, 2008). Evaporation is also projected to increase by approximately 0.3mm/dayoverthesea.Asnotedbefore,thechangesoverlandmaybeless. Projectionsforhurricanes werebasedon a singleGCMrunningathigh resolutionwitha20 km mesh (Oochieetal.,2006).OnemodelhasprojectedmoreintensehurricanesintheAtlantic. Uncertainties The climateoutcomes outlined aboveare by no means certain. They should be viewed on a scale of probabilitiesandontheprojectedemissionscenarios.Thevulnerabilitiesdescribedwilllargelydepend onsocialconditionsandtheabilityofthegovernmenttofinanceadaptationmeasures. BasedontheA1Bscenariodescribedaboveandonexpertjudgment,theprobabilitythattemperatures willincreaseandprecipitationdecreasearegreaterthan90percent.Howeverthemagnitudesofthe changesarelessuncertain.Theprobabilityofarangeoftemperatureincreasebetween2Cand2.8C bythe2050sand2080srespectivelyisgreaterthan66percent,butthemagnitudeoftheprecipitation decreasesislesscertain.Thisisbecausewhilethescienceofglobalwarmingiswellunderstoodandthe processesleadingtoitcanbewellsimulated,theconfidenceassociatedwithmodellingofprecipitation isnotashigh. 249
Theprobabilityofsealevelrisingoverthenextcenturyisgreaterthan66percent,butthemagnitudeof the rise is uncertain because of the large deviation among sea level rise models, and the absence of regionalmodels.Thepossibilityofincreasedstormsisunclear. AjointstatementbyparticipantsoftheWMOInternationalWorkshoponTropicalCyclones,IWTC6,in SanJose,CostaRica,November2006,statesthat,Giventheconsistencybetweenhighresolutionglobal models,regionalhurricanemodelsandMPI(MaximumPotentialIntensity)theories,itislikelythatsome increaseintropicalcycloneintensitywilloccuriftheclimatecontinuestowarm.Amorerecentpaper byKnutsonetal.,(2008)doesnotsupportthenotionoflargeincreasingtrendsineithertropicalstorm orhurricanefrequencydrivenbyincreasesinatmosphericgreenhousegasconcentrations.Atthesame time, the paper does not contradict the idea that nearstorm rainfall rates will increase substantially, andthatcycloneintensitywillincrease. 4.2 TheAgricultureSector 4.2.1 MainCharacteristicsoftheAgricultureSectorinJamaica Jamaicanagricultureischaracterisedbyeitherlargescaleplantationproductionormuchsmallerscale mixed cropping.The largescaleproduction includescropssuchassugarcane, bananas, andcoffeefor theexportmarket.Thisproductionhaditsoriginsintheperiodofcolonialexpansionintheeighteenth andnineteenthcenturieswhentheeconomywasbasedonplantationagricultureandslavelabour.In contrast,thesmallscalefarming,whichaccountsforthegreaterproportionoffarmlabour,producesa wide range of crops mainly for the domestic market. The crops include yam, potato, dasheen, coco, banana,plantain,cassava,peas,beans,pumpkin,andawiderangeoftropicalfruitandvegetables.The smallscale farms emerged significantly after the slaves were freed, withdrew from the estates, and beganplantingtheirownplots. The evolution of agriculture in Jamaica and the Eastern Caribbean is typical of many other tropical developing countries but quite different from older economies. In older economies, agriculture developed on the basis of subsistence and selfsufficiency within the farm. This was before the cash economy and the spread of industrialisation. Animals and crops were produced for household consumption and not for sale. Centralised marketing was established and selfsufficiency on the farm was gradually superseded by a cash economy as communication improved. The early subsistence economygraduallychangedandtheproductionofcashcropsincreased.Tradebeganintownsnearby thenlaterexpandedtomoredistantbuyers. The origin of Jamaican agriculture was based on crops produced for the international market on plantationsfinancedbyexternalcapitalandaslavelaboursystem.Themonocroppingofexportcrops generated vulnerable, open economies dependent on food imports, which further deterred the development of smallfarm food production. Unlike more developed economies, the role of Jamaican agriculturewasnottoprovidefoodforitslocalpopulationbutforexport.Theeconomyinturn,relied onforeignexchangeearnedfromtheexportofcropstoimportstaplefood.Theimportofstaplefoodis stillamajortrendoftheJamaicaneconomy. Jamaica imported far more agricultural commodities than it exported during the 1970s and 1980s. However,theeconomyisnowrecordinganagriculturaltradesurplus.In1994,thevalueoffoodimports
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wasUS$136.1millionwhileagriculturalexportstotalledUS$167.3million,yieldingasurplusofUS$31.2 million(PlanningInstituteofJamaica,1994). The agricultural sector has seen a decrease in natural agricultural resources. The 1982 Provisional Farmers Register of the Jamaican Ministry of Agriculture recorded a total of 369,138 hectares (922, 845.9acres)oftotalfarmacreageinJamaica.Thetotallandareaoccupiedbyfarmsin1978was537, 453hectares,whichis10.9percentlessthanthatrecordedbythepreviouscensusin1968of603,126 hectares.Thirtypercentofthelandhasslopesrangingfrom2degreesto20degrees,and50percenthas slopesofover20degrees(IICA,1994). Jamaica is particularly susceptible to watersheddegradation, as approximately 80 percent of the land surface is hilly or mountainous, with more than 50percent having slopes of greater than20 degrees. ThetwogeneralisedsectorsofJamaicanagricultureshowdistinctivetopographicalfeatures.Largescale farmersthatpracticemonocroppingofexportcropsoccupythemostresourcerichlandsthatis,the coastalplainsandtheinteriorvalleyswithrelativelyfertilesoils.Smallfarmingoccupiestheuplandof thecentralparishesandthehillyareasoftheremainingparishes.Itisnoticeablethatthesmallerthe farm, the higher the proportion of mixed cropping and the higher the proportion of food crops for domestic consumption rather than crops for export. Pastures and grassland used for animal feed are locatedpredominantlyinthenorthcentralandwesternparishesofJamaica. Soilsinsmallfarmingareasaremoderatelyfertileandhavebeenbadlyeroded.Ahighrateofremovalof naturalvegetationof3.3percentannuallyfromtheisland'swatershedshascontinuedoverthelast30 years.Fourhundredmilliontonnesofsoilwerelostfromtheislandoverthelast10years(IICA,1994). TheNaturalResourcesConservationDepartment(NRCD,1984),whichisnowtheNationalEnvironment &PlanningAgency(NEPA),hasreportedthat16percentoftheisland'slandareaisseriouslyerodedand thatlossoftopsoilaverages40to50tonsannually.EachofJamaica's26watershedmanagementunits hasportionswhichareconsideredtobebadlyeroded(JamaicaStateoftheEnvironmentReport,1997). Farmingactivitiessuchasunregulatedburningandcuttingforestryforlogs,yamsticks,fuelwoodand charcoal burning, coupled with poor agronomic techniques, all contribute to the degradation of watershedareas. Thedistinctivespatialinequalitythatexistsinthedistributionofgoodagriculturallandbetweenthetwo farming sectors is one of the features of Jamaican agriculture that remain deeply ingrained. Land concentration remains among a small number of large farms, while good agricultural land is a scarce commodityamongthousandsofsmallfarmers.TheJamaicanlandreformprogrammesofthe1960sand 1970s did not succeed in creating any true structural changes in the distribution of agricultural land. Neitherhasthesmallfarmersbenefitedfromtherecentreductionintheacreageundersugarcane. Besidestheinequalityinthesizeoflandandterrain,smalloperatorsarefurtherdisadvantagedinthat theirfarmsareusuallymadeupoftwo,three,orevenfourseparatefragmentsoflandatconsiderable distancesapart.Somescholarshaveassessedthisphenomenonasamajorspatialbarriertoagricultural advancement. Fragmentation affects time spent on scattered plots, land use variations, and time is wastedtravellingtodistantplots.Themajorityoflargefarmsarecontiguousholdings. Theunequaldistributionoflandresourceshasimportantimplicationsforthedistributionofincome,the economic well being of farmers and, environmental management, and threatens aspirations for sustainableagriculture. 251
LandTenure Asnotedabove,thepresentlandtenuresystemisanoutcomeofthepatternofsettlementduringthe colonialera.Themostfertilelandsontheplainsandcoastalareaswereallocatedtothefirstsettlers, who cultivated sugar cane and other crops under a plantation system based on slavery. After the abolitionofslaverytheonlylandavailabletofreedslaveswasinthehillyinterior.TheseCrownlands, were owned by the government, thus the first occupants could only establish usufruct rights. Subsequently, government regularised this tenure and granted titles to the land through various programmes. Progress has been slow, and most of this land is still untitled. Land in the coastal areas continuestobeapartoflargeestates,althoughthegovernmenthasacquiredseveralofthem. Privatelyownedland,familyownedland(belongingtoadescentgroupthatcannormallybeusedbyall members), rented land, leasehold, squatted land, caretaking, and rentfree represent the tenurial arrangements among farmers in Jamaica. Privately owned land and leasehold are the two common options among the large plantations. The small farming sector has a greater mix of tenurial arrangements.Somesmallfarmersmayhaveadifferenttenurialarrangementforeachpieceofland. Around 80 percent of all agricultural land is owned. However, among those farming less than two hectares(thisgrouprepresentsover80percentoffarmers);only50to60percentofthelandisowned. Afterownership,leasedlandisthesecondmostimportanttenure,accountingfor9percentoftheland area,followedbyrentfree(5%),rented(4%),andsquatting(4%).However,thedistributionvarieswith farmsize.Thirteenpercentoffarmsoflessthan0.4hectaresoflandarerentedand21percentofthe landisrentfree.Forfarmsbetween0.4and2hectarescategory,14percentofthelandisleased,12 percentisheldrentfreeand 11percentis rented.Theproportion oflandowned increaseswithfarm size,thelargestoperatorsowningover90percentofthelandtheyfarm.Thus,insecureformsoftenure aremorecloselyassociatedwithsmallerfarmers,andwithpoverty. SizeofFarms The size of farms is an important variable as it indicates expansion and development potential of production units. The concept of size as used here is defined on the basis of total land area. The JamaicanMinistryofAgriculturedefinessmallfarmsasthosebetween0.1to25acres.Asnotedabove, land distribution is highly concentrated in Jamaica. Official national statistics show the extremely skeweddistributionoffarmsizes(Table4.3). Table4.3:FarmSizeDistributionandNumberofFarmersin2007 Size Group of Areaoccupied(ha) %Total Numberof %Total Farms Farmers 0 0 0 28,070(landless) 12.3 <1ha 47,712 15% 151,929 66.4 1to<5ha 86,011 26% 43,731 19.1 5to<50ha 50,783 16% 4,543 2.0 50to<200ha 25,449 8% 270 0.1 >200ha 115,854 36% 140 0.1 Total 325,809 100% 22,638 100
Source:STATIN,CensusofAgriculture2007
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Theunbalancedpatternoflanddistributionisamajorexplanationforthemarkedunevendistributionof ruralincomes,particularlyinthecontextofthesmallshareoftotalincomeaccruingtothesmallscale farminginrelationtothenumberofpeopleitsupports.AsdemonstratedinTable4.3,farmsbetween0 to5hectarescovered41%ofagriculturallyproductivelandin2007,cultivatedby85.5%offarmers.In sharp contrast, farms of equal to or greater than 200hectares accounted for 42% of agriculturally productivelandbutwerecultivatedbylessthat0.2offarmers. Theuseoflandareaasameasurementoffarmsizedoesnottakeintoconsiderationlandqualityand theintensityofuse.Paradoxically,therearelargeproportionsofunusedlandsonsmallfarmsandtoa lesser extent on large farms, estimated at 10 percent of cultivable land (Blustain, 1981). Recent empiricalstudiesinseveralsmallfarmingcommunitiesinJamaicarevealafigureofbetween45and50 percentoftotalfarmacreagelyingunused(Meikle,1993and1994). Farmlandinsmallfarmingcommunitiesisunderutilisedorunusedbecauseratesofcapitalformation aregenerallylow.Lowincomeslimitthecapacitytosave,whichinturnlimitthefarmers'abilitytore invest.Oldageorillhealthofsomefarmersalsolimitsproductionand,toalesserextent,steepslopes and long distances from the roadside. Lack of capital is overall the main factor limiting the optimal exploitationoflandresourcesamongthesmallfarmers. Idle landssuggestthatthe useoflandis notintensive as iscommonin some developing countries.It alsoindicatesthattheneedforexpansionintonewareasisperhapsnotasgreatinJamaica.Thefactors accountingforidleandunderutilisationofagriculturallandshouldbeamatterofpriorityinvestigation andbetaken intoaccountindevelopmentalactivitiesespecially inlightof:(a)increasedemphasis on the production of nontraditional export crops on small farms in a liberalised economy, and (b) continueduseofenvironmentallyfragileareas. AgriculturalCredit During 2006, the Government of Jamaica continued to make loans available for potentially viable agricultural projects through a range of financial intermediaries. The uptake of loan funds from the Development Bank of Jamaica via the Peoples Cooperative Bank and other approved Financial InstitutionsamountedtoJ$37.3millioncomparedwithJ$505.1millionin2005. ThemostsignificantdeclineinloanutilisationwasrecordedforlivestockwhichmovedtoJ$68.3million fromJ$335.4millionin2005.Loansforlivestockproductionin2005werepushedmainlybythepoultry industry which accounted for 95.1% of loans. These loans were mainly used for retooling activities. Declines in loan utilisation were also recorded for Domestic Crops and Export Crops, which fell by J$6.4millionandJ$4.5millionrespectively. Farmersareallowedtoaccesslocalcurrencyloansatarateof13.0%perannum.Thewholesalelending ratefromtheDevelopmentBankofJamaicatoApprovedFinancialInstitutionswas10.0%.Therewere noforeigncurrencyloanstotheAgriculturalSectorin2006. LoanallocationstothemainsubsectorsoftheAgriculturalSectorfortheperiod20022006inclusiveare presentedinTable4.4.
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Table4.4:LoanAllocationtotheAgriculturalSector20022006 (J$000) Sector 2002 2003 2004 2005 Domestic 6,383 11,794 2,301 10,098 Crops ExportCrops 177,935 42,039 91,658 8,630 Livestock 128,767 176,494 57,024 335,386 Farm 11,032 0 68,000 0 Infrastructure Agro 121,229 90,500 364,923 151,000 processing Totals 445,334 320,826 583,905 505,114
Source:PlanningInstituteofJamaica(2006)
2006 3,660 4,140 68,276 1,260 294,000 371,336
Totals 34,236 324,402 765,947 80,292 1,021,652 2,226,515
The degree of access to farm credit is directly related to farm size with larger farmers having greater access to credit than small farmers. The disparity in the amount of credit allocated to the domestic versustheexportsectorsisillustratedinTable4.4,andextendsbackintothe1990s,althoughin2005 and2006,theallocationsforbothsectorsweresimilarandhistoricallylow. Accesstoloansforinvestmentbyfarmersinthedomesticsectorisimportanttoallowthemtomove intogrowingeithernewvarietiesofexistingtraditionalcropsornewcrops,andtherebyincreasetheir capacity to respond positively to changing markets or environmental conditions including climate change.
AgriculturalTechnology Theuseoffarmequipment,irrigation,andagrochemicalsvariesdirectlywiththesizeoffarm.Farmsof less than 2.3 hectares (5 acres) access only 8 percent of farm machinery and over 70 percent of the manualequipmentwhereas,farmsofover227.3hectares(500acres)access62percentofmechanical energypoweredheavyagriculturalequipmentand2percentofmanuallyoperatedtools. The small farm sector continues to be labour intensive. Many agricultural projects aimed at small farmers encourage farmers to change their agronomic practices either by changing their crops, intensifying their production, or increasing agrochemical use. Assessments of sustainability of agriculturaltechnologiesarerarelyworkedoutandthissometimesleadstounfavourablerepercussions bothontheenvironmentandonthequalityandquantityofproduce. 4.2.2 InstitutionalArrangementsfortheManagementofAgricultureinJamaica TheMinistryofAgricultureandFisheriesistheprimearmoftheGovernmentofJamaicaresponsiblefor themanagementanddevelopmentofJamaicanagriculture.Itimplementstheseresponsibilitiesthrough anumberofDirectoratesandDivisions,including: Technical Services Directorate: responsible for directing and coordinating research and development, veterinary services, fisheries, public gardens, plant quarantine, and the forestry department;
254
Policy Coordination and Administration Directorate: establishes a framework of policy coordination,monitoring,evaluation,andinformationexchangebetweeninternalandexternal clients; Agricultural Planning, Policy and Development Division: Provides information on a continuing basis to assist the Ministry in formulating agricultural policies within the ambit of national developmentandplaysaleadingroleinallaspectsofagriculturaldevelopmentplanning.Also directsandsupervisestheworkoftheEconomicPlanning,DataBank&Evaluation,Agricultural CreditandMarketing,andInternationalTradeUnits; Data Bank & Evaluation Division: Responsible for providing the Ministrys agricultural commodity associations, other agricultural and allied bodies, farmers, and international agencieswithagriculturaldataandinformation; MarketingandCreditServicesDivision:Providestherelevantregulatoryandsupportsystemto facilitatethemarketingofagriculturalfoodproductsandconsequentlyintroduceimprovement inthemarketingsystem; LandPolicy and Administration Directorate: Analyzes and refines the National Land Policy and creates linkages with environmental agencies, promoting and maintaining environmental sustainability and harmony with competing forms of land use. Also coordinates and oversees the work of the Land Administration and Management, Minerals Policy and Development, SpatialDataManagement,andRuralPhysicalPlanningdivisions,particularlywithrespecttothe: development, implementation, and monitoring of portfolio policies, programmes, projects,legislative,regulatoryandpolicyinstruments,andrelatedactivities; revision,modernization,andintroductionofrelevantlegislationandpolicies; guidingofworkontheplannedsystematicdevelopmentofthemineralsindustry; facilitationofsustainabilityrequirementsofthenonbauxitemineralssector; coordinationwithagenciessuchastheMinesandGeologyDivision,NationalLand AgencyandtheForestryDepartmentinachievingsustainablelanddevelopment; directionandguidanceonalllandrelatedagenciesandprojectsoftheMinistry; evolution of the work of the Spatial Data Management Division to promote and facilitatetheuseofGISandgeospatialdatainallspheresofgovernmentactivity; creation of synergies and linkages amongst the various Ministerial divisions and theirtechnicalresponsibilities.
ThereareanumberofCommodityBoardsthathaveasignificantroleinthedevelopmentofagriculture inJamaica.Theseinclude: Banana Board: Statutory body established under the Banana Board Act of 1953 with responsibility to: inform government on status of the industry and any necessary actions; promote and develop the interest and efficiency of the banana industry; to institute, conduct, finance, assist, and superintend research for improving production, controlling disease,anddevelopingdiseaseresistantfruit;andadministertheBananaInsuranceFund. Cocoa Industry Board: Statutory body established and operated under the Cocoa Industry Board Act of 1957. Through the Board, Jamaica is a member of the International Cocoa Organisation(ICCO)andasignatorytotheagreement.TheICCOrecognizes17countriesas producers of fine or flavoured cocoa; Jamaica is recognized as one of eight exclusive producers. The core function of the Board is the international marketing. (A significant
255
portionofthebeansisexportedprimarilytoEurope,Japan,andtheUnitedStates;onlya smallquantityissolddomestically.) Coconut Industry Board: Established under the Coconut Industry Control Act in 1945. The Board promotes the interest and efficiency of the coconut industry, encourages the production of coconuts, and regulates the purchase, sale, and exportation of coconut, as well as the importation of coconut products and substitutes. The Board also informs and advises the government on the industry and needed actions, issues licences to manufacturersofcoconutproduct,arrangescropinsurance;assistsgrowerstomarkettheir crops,andcarriesoutresearchontheagriculturalproblemsoftheindustry. CoffeeIndustryBoard:EstablishedundertheCoffeeIndustryRegulationsActof1948.The principal role is to promote, regulate, monitor and guide the development of the coffee industry of Jamaica and to assure quality ofJamaican coffee mainly through licensing and monitoringofcoffeedealers,processors,worksandnurseries(theboardownstheJamaica Blue Mountain and Jamaican High Mountain Supreme coffee trademarks and is responsiblefortheintegrityofthebrands);certificationofqualitystandards,growingareas, and plant varieties; and advisory services, such as monitoring and forecasting of crop condition, technical advice to farmer groups on planting, pre and postharvesting techniques,pestanddiseasecontrolandenvironmentalmanagement. Dairy Development Board: Established following Cabinet Resolution of July 1999. The Boards mandate is to ensure a policy environment which will promote the orderly developmentoftheJamaicanDairyIndustryby:collecting,compilingandanalyzingdataon the local and international dairy markets to provide the basis for appropriate policy intervention; consulting with stakeholders of the dairy sector toward the formulation appropriate of public policy; initiating onfarm and inplant assessments to determine efficiencies and identify and recommend solutions to production deficiencies; assisting in identifying and procuring financial and technical support for enhancing competitiveness withinthesector;andconductingtrainingworkshopsandseminarsforsectorstakeholders. Export Division (Pimento): The ExportDivision of the Ministry of Agriculture is responsible for collecting, storing, processing, marketing and shipping of pimento, together with the overall development of the industry. The pimento industry consistently earns over US$5 million annually, from pimento berry, pimento leaf oil, pimento berry oil and other products. In order to encourage increased production, government has increased the Farmgate price of pimento by 161%, moving the price from $50.71 to $132.28 per kilo ($23.00to$60.00perlb)overthelastfiveyearperiod.Since1999,theExportDivisionhas also been assisting ginger growers in the redevelopment of that industry which was devastatedbyRhizomeRotDisease.Itcurrentlyguaranteesmarketsforfresh/green,dried andpeeledtraditionaltypeJamaicangingerandnutmeg. SugarIndustryAuthority:TheSugarmainfunctionsareregulatory,monitoring,arbitration, researchanddevelopmenttheprovisionofandtechnicalassistance,withgreateremphasis being placed on research to enhance production and productivity. The organization also advisesonindustrydevelopments,trendsandprices.
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The Forestry Department is mandated to conserve and protect the island's forests, to manage the forestedwatershedsandforestlands,todirectandcontroltheexploitationofforestresourcesthrough the introduction of appropriate systems for the renewal of those resources, the promotion and regulationofforestindustries,forestresearch,publiceducationandforestrytrainingandeducation.The Governmenthasrevisedlegislationtoreflectthesepoliciesandhasalsostrengthenedandupgradedthe Forest Department to an autonomous body, thus enabling it to develop a Forest Management and Conservation Plan. The Government has received assistance from the Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA) to establish Trees for the Tomorrow project which has assisted the department in developing the institutional framework and the capability to undertake longterm planningofforestsandimprovedwatershedmanagement. TheobjectivesoftheDepartmentareto: 1. Develop and maintain recreational sites at suitable locations in the forest reserves to provide forest recreation in the form of camping, hiking and general appreciation for the forestenvironment. 2. Ensure annual incremental increases in forest cover within the upper and middle watersheds. 3. Regulatetheorderlydevelopmentoftheforestestate. 4. Improve the planning and management of the Forestry Department and National Environmental Societies Trust members and other government institutions to manage the projectcycle. 5. Strengthen the institutional capabilities in the Jamaican forest sector, top plan and implement sustainable forest management, and increase awareness of forest throughout thecountry. TheNationalLandAgencywasestablishedastheresultofthePublicSectorModernisationProgramme undertaken by the Government of Jamaica. It brings together the core land information functions of Government under one roof, and includes: Land Titles; Surveys & Mapping; Land Valuation & Estate (Crown Land) Management. This merger enables the Government to build on the synergy of these combined functions and create a modern national land (spatial) information system to support sustainabledevelopment. TherearealsoarangeofstatutorybodiesthathavearoleinthedevelopmentofJamaicanagriculture. Theseinclude: AgriBusiness Council of Jamaica: Launched in 1994 to coordinate the efforts of private and publicagribusinessintereststhroughoutJamaicasoastopositivelyimpactonthedevelopment of Jamaicas agribusiness sector. ABC fulfils its mandate through providing effective linkages betweenagriculturalproducers/serviceprovidersandtheMinistryofAgricultureandLandsas wellasotherrelevantagencies. Agricultural Development Corporation: This body aims to activate, stimulate, facilitate and undertake agricultural development for enhancement of the economic wellbeing of the Jamaicanpeople.Itsmainstrategicobjectiveistoensuringthereisanorganizationalstructure to adequately implement commercialization of agriculture. One key output is to enhance improvement in the quality of livestock in the cattle industry as a whole and to preserve and expandthegenepoolofthethreeJamaicanbeefcattlebreeds. 257
Jamaican Agricultural Society: The Society promotes farmers interests, provides technical training on sustainable production, and assistance in accessing resources. Its vision is to reconstructruralcommunitiesthroughoutJamaicaintoviableeconomicandsocialentities. Jamaica 4H Clubs: The aims of the clubs are to mobilize, educate, and train young people betweentheagesofnineto25yearsinagriculture,homemaking,leadership,andsocialskills, which will prepare them for or influence them into careers in agriculture and agrorelated occupations,andprovideacadreoftrainedyoungleaders,capableofcontributingtonational development.
RuralAgriculturalDevelopmentAuthority:Promotesagriculturalproductionasthemainengine of growth in rural communities and helps provide technical, marketing, financial, and infrastructural facilities and thesocial services required for the improvement ofthequality of lifeoffarmfamilies.Thebroadobjectivesinclude: Providing a technical advisory extension service aimed at encouraging and promoting agriculturalpracticesthatwillfacilitateselfsustaininggrowthanddevelopmentwithin thefarmingcommunity; Influencingpolicyactionthatspeakstoruraldevelopment; Increasing production and productivity, thereby enhancing growth and development withintheagriculturalsector; Stemming environmental degradation in general and in critical watershed areas in particular and pursuing development strategies aimed at achieving long term conservationobjectivesandpromotingefficientuseofnaturalresources; Exposingruralwomentoskilltrainingopportunitiesinagroprocessingandtheculinary artsandbusinessmanagementwithaviewtopreparingthemeitherforemploymentor tooperatetheirownbusiness; Develop an integrated approach to rural development through the fostering of operationallinkageswithotherorganizationsconcernedwithruraldevelopment. AgriculturalDevelopmentStrategy(200508) TheAgriculturalDevelopmentStrategy(200508)wasdevelopedbytheMinistryofAgriculturalaspart of a long term plan to transform Jamaican agriculture by 2020 (Government of Jamaica, 2005). It is seekingtodevelopagriculturescontributiontoJamaicasrenewedmediumtermeconomicgrowthand tosecuresustainabledevelopmentinthelongterm.Agriculture,duetoitsimpactonfoodsecurityand thecostofliving;theexistenceofgoodopportunitiesforexports;andthecontributiontoemployment andruraldevelopmenthasthespecial potentialforcontributingtoshorttermstability,mediumterm growthandlongtermdevelopment. Therevitalizationoftheagriculturalsectoranditsincreasedcontributiontothenationaleconomywill depend, however, on the reorganisation of the sector on the basis of modern technology and management, in order to achieve greater efficiency and competitiveness. The strategy has five major themes, which will be applied to major programmes and practices. These are: (1) Competitive Agriculture; (2) Efficient Commercial Farming; (3) Application of Technology; (4) Integrated Rural Development; and (5) Involvement of Young People. Financing of the projects and programmes to supportimplementationofthestrategycomesfromtheGovernmentofJamaica,externalsourcesand thelocalPrivateSector/NGOs. 258
4.2.3 TheRoleofAgricultureintheJamaicanEconomy AgricultureremainscentraltotheJamaicaneconomyforemploymentandforeignexchangegeneration despitethedeclineinnumberofpersonsinvolved.The1943Jamaicancensusofpopulationshowedthat 45percentoftheworkingpopulationearnedtheirlivingfromagriculture.Theproportionofthelabour forceinagriculturehasdecreasedsincethento24.4percentin1994,downto17.9percentin2006.The government'srecurrentandcapitalexpenditureonagriculturein1975was14.8percent.By1990,this fellto2.0percentandwasdownto1.5percentin2006.Agriculturecontributed28percenttoGDPin 1943,8percentin1994and5.5percentin2006(PlanningInstituteofJamaica,1991,1994,2007). The Planning Institute of Jamaica measures agricultural production using an Agriculture Production Index(API)withinitsannualEconomicandSocialSurveyofJamaica.TheAPIisestimatedforexportand domestic crops, meat & poultry, and fisheries subsectors, as well as producing a value for the whole sector.TheAPIisausefulmeansofcomparisonofthegrowthordeclineinthesectoryearonyear. Overall,therewasa15.3%increaseinproductionintheagriculturalsectorin2006comparedwith2005, withincreases across all sectors(Table4.5, also graphicallyinFigure4.2).The15.9percent growthin realGDPforagriculturefrom2005to2006waslargelyduetofavourableweatherconditionsaswellas theimplementationofprivatesectorandgovernmentledinitiativesaimedatimprovingproductionand productivityinthesector. Table4.5:AgriculturalProductionIndexforJamaicanAgriculture(1986to2006;1986=100) Year ExportCrops DomesticCrops Meat&Poultry Fishing Total 1986 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1987 111.8 104.3 103.3 98.3 105.0 1988 98.4 93.6 110.4 97.2 96.3 1989 119.4 88.3 112.9 98.3 95.9 1990 113.1 97.6 130.2 107.0 101.3 1991 121.5 98.0 127.0 103.9 103.9 1992 127.8 119.7 131.1 109.1 118.3 1993 129.6 139.2 124.5 114.5 130.5 1994 133.1 153.0 125.0 114.4 140.2 1995 138.8 161.0 126.6 114.4 146.5 1996 151.8 170.2 127.3 114.4 154.5 1997 128.3 134.9 134.2 106.3 130.2 1998 112.1 131.7 127.5 100.9 124.1 1999 118.4 135.1 151.6 89.3 129.6 2000 104.9 110.1 153.6 79.5 112.3 2001 104.6 119.4 157.4 76.2 117.9 2002 96.7 122.3 171.0 89.0 111.1 2003 90.3 120.0 172.3 82.5 118.0 2004 85.2 101.2 169.2 92.2 106.6 2005 57.7 97.5 176.9 94.7 100.6 2006 85.0 112.8 163.4 141.9 116.0
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Figure4.2:AgriculturalProductionIndexforJamaicanAgriculture(1986to2006;1986=100)
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Overtheperiod1986to2006,itisonlythemeatandlivestocksectorthatdisplaysaconsistentupward trend,althoughproductioninthissectoractuallydeclinedin2006.Alltheothersectorsshowincreasing productionuntilthemid1990s,afterwhichtheexportanddomesticcropsectorsandthefishingsector showsignificantdeclines.Thus,theexportcropsectorAPIvaluefelltobelowthe1986valuein2002 and has remained below this threshold since. For domestic crops, the decline has been just as significant,withproductionfallingto1986levelsduring2004/05,recoveringsomewhatin2006.Forthe fishingsector,thebaseofthedeclinewasin2000/01,afterwhichtherehasbeensomerecovery,most significantlyin2006. Export Agriculture grew by 47.4% in 2006. The growth was due mainly to improved performances in Sugarcane,witha27.5%increaseinsugarcanemilled,andothermainexportcropssuchascocoaand coffeewhereproductiongrewby8.2%,and39.3%respectively.Bananagrewby180.5%fromthevery lowlevelsofproductionin2005duetoHurricanesIvan,Dennis&Emily.However,theAPIforthissector remainedsignificantlybelowthe1986baselinewithavalueof85.0% DomesticAgricultureshowedagrowthof15.7%in2006.Theincreaseinthissubgroupwasduetoan increaseinproductionofplantainsby145.6%,fruitsby32.4%.Otherincreasesinproductionincluded legumes by 12.1%, both vegetables and yams by 14.6% as well as other tubers (e.g. cassavas) by 29.2%. As commented above, the meat and livestock industry declined in 2006. This was due to increases in inputcostaswellaspraediallarcenywhichaffectedfarmersislandwide.Declineswererecordedinbeef cattle,pigrearing,goatandmutton.However,poultryproductionincreased,onthebackonretoolingin 2005,continuedimprovementsinproductionefficiencyandincreasinglocaldemand. Fisheriesshowedsignificantgrowthin2006,onthebackofrelativelyslowgrowthfrom2001. 4.2.4 TheImportanceofClimatetoJamaicanAgriculture The mean rainfall and temperature in Jamaica are presently 1786mm and 28oC respectively (Spence, 2008).Theclimaticrequirementsofrainfallandtemperatureforthemainexportanddomesticcropsof JamaicaissummarisedinTable4.6.Currentclimaticconditionsareoptimumornearoptimumforthe productionofthesecropsboth interms of growingandripening conditions of thecrops, aswell as minimisationofpestsanddiseases.ItistheclimaticvariabilityandextremesexperiencedinJamaicain terms of tropical storms/hurricanes and the occurrence of drought that present the main climatic challengestoagricultureinJamaica.
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Table4.6:AverageMainClimaticRequirementsoftheMainExportandDomesticCropsofJamaica Crop AverageClimaticRequirements Rainfall/water Temperature(0C) requirements(mm/yr) SugarCane 1100to1500 3034oC Banana 270Coptimal Coconut 1000to2250 270Coptimalwithdiurnalvariationof60Cto70C Citrus 1250to1850 28to320C Pimento 1500to1700 18to240C Cocoa 1250to3000 18210Cmin,28320Cmax Pineapple 700to1000 23240Coptimal Yam Approx.1000 25300C Cassava Approx.1500 25290C Furthermore, with projected decreases in precipitation of up to 40 percent and up to 2.8C rise in temperature expected by 2080s (Table 4.2), it can be seen that many crop will be growing under borderlineconditionsandthereforewillbeunderstress.Foodsecuritywillbethreatened. ValuesoftheAgriculturalProductionIndex(API)fortheagriculturalsectorasawholefrom1986to2006 are presented in Figure 4.3. Also plotted are the occurrences of major climatic events that have occurredinthesameperiod.Therewouldseemtobeaclearassociationbetweentheoccurrenceor lackofoccurrenceoftheseclimaticeventsandtheperformanceoftheagriculturalsector.Forexample, following Hurricane Gilbert there was a period of significant growth from 198996. However, in the following decade, the API has steadily declined, with this decline associated with the occurrence of droughtsin1988and2000,followedbysignificantfloodingin2002,andthepassingofHurricaneIvanin 2004,followedbyHurricanesDennis,WilmaandEmilyin2005.Thesectorshowedsignificantrebound in 2006, but has been severely impacted by the passage of Hurricane Dean in August 2007. Other factorshaveanimpactontheperformanceoftheagriculturalsectorsuchasgovernmentpoliciesaswell as world market prices for crops, but it is the occurrence of climatic events that demonstrate the vulnerabilitytocurrentclimateofJamaicanagriculture.
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Figure4.3:AgricultureProductionIndexandMajorClimaticEvents(1986to2006)
160
150
140
130
120
110
ElNinoDrought
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80
1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
AdditionalanalysiscomparedchangesinAPIyearonyearplottedagainstannualrainfall(Figure4.4).The aimofthisanalysiswastoidentifythepresenceorotherwiseofanythresholdsintheannualrainfalland changesintheAPI.Ascanbeseen,itisdifficulttoidentifyanysignificantrelationshipsbetweenannual rainfallandAPIotherthandroughtsareassociatedwithgreatestdeclinesinAPIcomparedwithimpacts associated withtropical storms. Thisreflectsthe longer termandwider spatialimpacts onagriculture fromdroughtcomparedwiththeimmediateandsmallerspatialimpactsassociatedwithtropicalstorms inJamaica.
Total
HurricaneIvan
100
May2002Flooding
HurricanesDennis &EmilyandWilma
PIOJAPI
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Figure4.4:AgricultureProductionIndexandAnnualRainfall(1986to2006)
20
15
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ChangeinAPI
2005 Hurricanes Dennis, Emily&Wilma 1988 Hurricane Gilbert 2004 Hurricane Ivan 2002 MayFlooding
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30 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 2600
AnnualRainfall(mm)
EconomicCoststoAgriculturefromTropicalStorms/Hurricanes Estimatesofthecosts,bothdirectandindirecttoagriculturefromthepassageoftropicalstormsand hurricanes are presented in Table 4.7. Direct losses are due to the destruction of agricultural assets, livestock,cropsandagriculturalinfrastructure,whileindirectlossesareduetoreductioninproductivity andfutureoutputlossesduetothedisasterdamage. Table4.7:EstimatesofDirectandIndirectCoststoAgriculturefromRecentStormDamage Storm/Hurricane DirectLosses(J$) IndirectLosses(J$) Total(J$) May2002Flooding(1) J$578M J$205M J$783M HurricaneIvan(2) J$3407M J$5143M J$8550M HurricanesDennis&Emily(3) J$380M n/a n/a HurricaneWilma(4) J$248M n/a n/a
References: (1)EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(2002); (2)EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanetal(2004); (3)PlanningInstituteofJamaica(2005a);(4)PlanningInstituteofJamaica(2005b)
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EstimatesoflossesbysubsectorandmajorcroparepresentedinTable4.8forthesesameevents,and highlight the variations in vulnerability between the different sectors to these tropical storms / hurricanes.Traditionalexportcropsincludebanana,coffeeandsugar. Table4.8:EstimatesofDirectCoststoDifferentAgriculturalSectorsfromRecentStormDamage Storm/Hurricane Livestock Domestic Traditional Comment Crops ExportCrops May2002Flooding(1) J$100M J$351M J$68M Vegetable losses greatest at J$138M HurricaneIvan(2) J$607M J$199M J$2001M CoffeelossesgreatestatJ$992M Hurricanes Dennis & J$30M $112M J$237M CoffeelossesgreatestatJ$153M Emily(3) HurricaneWilma(4) J$42M J$206M N/A N/A
References: (1)EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean(2002); (2)EconomicCommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanetal(2004); (3)PlanningInstituteofJamaica(2005a);(4)PlanningInstituteofJamaica(2005b)
HurricaneIvanhadbyfarthegreatesteconomicimpactontheagriculturalsector.TheimpactsofIvan illustratesomeofthespecificvulnerabilitiesthatcroptypesfacewithrespecttotheoccurrencetropical storms/hurricanes. These are illustrated below, focussing on traditional export crops (Economic CommissionforLatinAmericaandtheCaribbeanetal,2004). Sugar Cane: Strong winds and the floods from the heavy rainfall affected this crop at a time when effortswerebeingmadetoincreasetheareaofrecentlyplantedfields,improvereapingconditions,and increase the sugartocane production ratio. Sugar canes were broken and uprooted and flooding affected extensive areas. In addition, miscellaneous infrastructure and irrigation systems sustained damageanddestruction.Lossesfortheprocessingofcaneanditsconversionintosugaralsooccurred duetothehigherwatercontentofthecane. Banana: The winds of Ivan inflicted heavy damage to virtually the entire area devoted to banana plantations in Jamaica. Trees were broken or uprooted in an estimated surface area of 4,272 hectares (see image, right), and the entire production of bananas for export and for domestic consumptionwaslost.Plantationscanberesuscitatedand full production can be achieved after 6 to 9 months. In addition to the loss of production, there was a negative impactonemployment.Otherthanthelimitedlabourthat will be required for the rehabilitation of the plants and farms,nearly8,000personswereoutofwork.Asthenew banana plants reached maturity and began production, workerswereabletoreturninastagedfashion. Coffee: The strong winds brought by Ivan caused the breakinguporuprootingofcoffeetreesaswellasdamage totheforestthatprovidesshadingtotheplantation.Inaddition,thewindscausedthelossofberriesfor the current crop in the Blue Mountain and lowland coffee areas. This caused a major setback to the 265
increased coffee production that had been achieved as a result of major resuscitation of coffee trees activitiesbyfarmers.Itwasestimatedthat5percentofthecoffeetreepopulationwasdestroyed.This isespeciallysignificant,asnewcoffeetreesonlybeginproducingwhentheyreachmaturityattheageof three to five years. The winds also caused the loss of berries in nearly 45 percent of the coffee producingarea.Itwasestimatedthatthisimpededtheproductionandexportof213,000boxesofBlue Mountaincoffeeand41,000boxesoflowerqualitycoffee. An insurance scheme for the sector was operating at the time of Ivan. Coffee production is insured providedthelossesoccurafterberriesarepresentinthetrees,atthethenrateofUS$20perboxfor BlueMountaincoffeeandUS$12perboxforlowlandcoffee,toacombinedmaximumamountofUS$ 8.8million.Thecoffeetreeswerenotinsuredsincethepremiumsareconsideredtoohigh.Reinsurance wasavailablefromanumberoflargeinternationalinsurancegroupsincludingMunichRewhenever the losses exceed 20 percent of the expected crop. However although, insurance proceeds assisted coffeegrowerstorecoverpartoftheirlosses,someproducersthatwerealreadyconsideringwithdrawal fromthisactivityduetothelowinternationalprices,decidednottocontinuetheirproduction. Cocoa: Efforts were being made in 2003 to increase production to take advantage of increasing international prices and demand. However, the scarcity of rains in the first half of 2004 resulted in reduced production by almost 50 percent. The hurricane damaged trees and compromised the correspondingfutureproductionofcocoainanareaof1,100hectares,thuscompoundingtheproblems ofthefarmers. Pimento:Theseproductionactivitiessustainedsignificantdamageandlosses.Physicalinfrastructure including warehouses and equipment and stocks of pimento already processed were damaged or destroyedaswellastreesdestroyedandberrieslost. Citrus: The action of the strong winds caused the loss of many fruits that were in varying degrees of ripening. EconomicCoststoAgriculturefromDroughts Thereisno equivalentmethodology orreporting of thesocioeconomic impactsofdroughtevents on the agricultural sector and the wider Jamaican society as found with the reports that have been prepared since 2002 by Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean and the Planning Institute of Jamaica. Therefore, reviewing and estimating costs of drought to agriculture difficult. In termsofimpactsofdroughtsonJamaicanagriculture,therearethedirectcostsassociatedwithlossin yields,aswellasdeclineinthequalityofcropsharvested.ForthewiderJamaicaneconomyandtrade impacts there is the increase in food imports to meet local demand whichcannotbe met bydrought affectedagriculture. Chenetal(2005)includedananalysisofsugarcaneyieldsfromtheWorthyParkPlantationintheupper part of the parish of St. Catherine in their review of agricultural drought in the West Indies. This plantationisrainfedandthereforeyieldsarecloselylinkedwithclimateandprecipitation.Theypointed outthatfourclimaterelatedstressesleadtoapoorharvestofsugarcaneinJamaica.Thesewere: BelownormalJulySeptemberprecipitationthishasatellingimpactonsugarcanegrowth; BelownormalNovemberMayprecipitation,resultinginthepoorestablishmentofplantingsand retardation of early growth (although there can be some recovery in sugar yields with above averageJulySeptemberprecipitation); 266
Above normal temperatures and excessive precipitation during NovemberMarch (in the 46 weeksbeforeharvest)whichisunfavourabletoripeningofthecane; Excessivespringrainsinpoorlydrained,floodproneareas.
Their analysis of 50 years of sugar cane yields highlighted the link between the occurrence of these climatephenomena,ElNinoandLaNinaevents,andreducedsugarcaneyields.Forexample,theJune October1991precipitationwas46percentofnormal,whichwasfollowedbyprecipitationat61percent of normal during December 1991February 1992, as well as minimum temperatures 102.8 percent of normalduringNovember1991March1992.Thisresultedina1992sugarcaneyieldat81percentofthe 195099yields.Therefore,byanalogy,climatechangewouldbeexpectedtohavesignificantimpactson sugarcaneyields,althoughfurtherstudieswouldbe necessarytoquantifythe impactsonsugarcane andothercropsanddevelopadaptationstrategies. In terms of national impacts, some inferences can be made from available statistics. In 1997, where annual rainfall for Jamaica was only 67.5 percent of the long term 195180 average, the volume of selected traditional exports totalled 283,688 tonnes, earning approximately US$212.6 million. This compareswithexportvolumesof307,796tonnesandearningsofUS$224.9millionin1996.Therewasa decline in export earnings of some US$12.3 million, although earnings per tonne increased by 2.6 percentin1997.Duringthissameperiod,thevalueofselectedfoodimportsincreasedfromUS$154.8 million in 1996 to US$175.6 million in 1997 (13% increase) while the volumes of imported foods increased by 5.4 percent. However, not all of these changes can be attributed to the 1997 drought alone,asthereweresignificantchangesinriceandmaizeprices,whichalsoimpactedonthevolumes andvalueofthetotalfoodimports. This simple example illustrates some of the difficulties in estimating costs of drought to Jamaican agriculture,butalsotheorderofmagnitudeofthecoststoagriculturefromsuchevents.Itisclearthata methodologytounderstandandestimatethecostsofdroughttoagricultureinJamaicaisrequired.Such cost estimation would assist quantifying the impacts, identifying those sectors most vulnerable to droughtandthereforeassistinthedevelopmentoflongtermadaptationstrategiesforthesesectors. 4.2.5 AnalysisofFutureClimateRisksforJamaicanAgriculture There are various methods available to assess the impacts of climate, climate change, and climate variability on the agricultural sector. These are summarized in Table 4.9, along with the respective strengthsandweaknesses.
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Table4.9:ClimateImpactAgriculturalAssessmentMethods TypeofModel KeyCharacteristics Agroclimaticmodels Based on simple calculations and effective for comparing across regions and andGIS crops,butonlyconsiderclimate Statisticalmodelsand Basedonempiricalrelationshipsbetweencropresponsesandclimate,butdo yieldfunctions notexplaincausalmechanismsnorfutureclimatecroprelationships Processbasedmodels Include climate, soils, and management. Widely used and calibrated and can be used for adaptation assessments. Require significant data input for best results Economicmodels Incorporate land values, commodity prices and economic outcomes, and thereforeusefultoassessmarketbasedandfinancial adaptationmeasures butarecomplexandrequiresignificantdatainput Householdandvillage Lookatcurrentcopingstrategiesunderexistingconditions,butdonotcapture models futurestressesifdifferentfromcurrent LimitedworktodatehasbeenundertakeninJamaicaonadoptingtheseapproachestoinvestigatethe impactsofclimatechangeonkeycashandfoodcropsinJamaica.Someinitialworkhasbeencarriedout byresearchersattheUniversityofWestIndiesinJamaicaonclimateandsugarcaneyields.(Amarakoon, personnelcommunication,2008).However,thishasnotprogressedtoalevelthatallowsquantitative assessmentstobecarriedoutwithrespecttoclimatechangeonsugarcaneyields. Progresshasstartedinthetrainingofstaffintheuseofmodellingapproachestoinvestigateclimateand climate change on crop yields. For example, in April 2008, top researchers from a wide range of CaribbeancountriesincludingJamaica,gatheredinGeorgetown,Guyana,forintensivetechnicaltraining intheassessmentofclimatechangeimpactsintheagriculturalsector.Thepurposeofthistrainingwas tobebetterabletoprovidedecisionmakersineachcountryandattheregionallevelwithscientificdata to guide development planning. The training workshop was conceptualized and organized by the CARICOM Climate Change Centre (CCCCC), in close coordination with Cubas National Institute of Meteorology (INSMET). The momentum generated by this exercise needs to be capitalized upon to developfurtherthetechnicalcapacitytoundertakenthenecessarystudiesforkeyJamaicancropsand thusinformadaptationpolicydevelopmentandimplementation. Giventhelackof incountry studies andtoolstodevelopspecificrisk assessmentresultsforJamaican cropsandlivestock,aliteraturereviewapproachwasundertakentopresentthefindingsofstudiesof key crops and livestock in terms of impact assessment using an analogue approach. This literature reviewisnotintendedtobeexhaustive,butitisconsideredthatitprovidesusefulresultswithrespect tothelikelyrangeofimpactsthatmightbeexpectedfortheJamaicansituation,andalsoillustratesthe roleofsocioeconomicfactorsintheassessmentoftheoverallimpactsunderfuturescenariosoncrop yields and production. It also provides an indication of the range of modelling approaches that have beenadoptedbydifferentcountriesinthepreparationoftheirownV&Astudies. IPCC (2007a) includes a chapter discussing the impact of climate change on the food (see Chapter 5: Food, Fibre & Forest Products). Summaries of the results are presented for a range of food crops. However, it is interesting to note that there are few studies included within the report that focus on foodandcashcropsthatareimportanttoJamaicaandotherCaribbeancountries.Forexample,Figure
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45presentedhereisextractedfromIPCC(2007a)Chapter5andpresentstheresultsfromthepooling of69studieslookingattheimpactofclimateoncerealyields(maize,wheatandrice). Figure4.5: Percentage cereal yield change with mean local temperature change for maize, wheat, andriceforlowlatitudes
(Notes:Studieswithoutadaptationreddots,withadaptationgreendots.Polynomialbestfitlinessummariseresultsonlyandarenotfor predictivepurposes)
Theresultsprovideusefulinformationonthelikelyrangeofimpactsofclimatechangeonthesecereal yieldsandalsothepotentialimpactofadaptationmeasurestocounterpotentialdeclinesinyieldfrom inthesecasesincreasedmeanlocaltemperatures.However,itisclearthatJamaicaneedstoundertake andpromotetheresultsfromitsownstudiesandassessmentstobuildupasimilardatabaseofresearch toassistwithincountryandregionwideV&Astudiesandresultingpolicydevelopment. IntheabsenceofstudiesspecifictoJamaicaortheCaribbean,examplesweredrawnfromtheliterature onstudiesrelevanttotheagriculturalsectorinJamaica.Thisincludessugarcane,coffee,banana,yam andlivestock,asexamplesoftherangeandscopeofstudiesthatarerequiredforJamaica.. Sugar cane: Sugar cane is a significant crop for Jamaica and its growth is closely related to climatic variables.Theoptimumtemperatureforgermination=3034C,optimumtemperatureforripening= 1214C,optimumrainfall=11001500mm/yr.Theincidenceofsugarcanediseasesandpestsarealso temperaturerelated.Smutinitiationandspreadishighatambienttemperaturesof2530C,spreadof rednotdiseaseishighat3740C,whilerustincidenceishighwhentheminimumtemperaturesare reduced. Shoot fly incidence is high in summer when the air temperatures are very high and when diurnaltemperaturerangeislow. Climate modelling projections for 2050 indicate both increased temperatures (approx. +1.30C) and reduced rainfall (approx. 6%). The impacts of this are likely to be increased water/irrigation requirementsunderhighertemperaturesandreducedrainfall,andthusincreasedcompetitionforwater resources,aswellastheincreasedincidenceofpestanddiseaseoutbreaks. There are examples of a range of modelling approaches being used to assess climate, climate change and impacts on sugar cane yield from countries where sugar cane is a key crop. For example, the Republic of Mauritius within its Initial National Communication (1999) outlines work that was undertaken bytheMauritiusSugarIndustryResearchInstitutetoassessthevulnerabilityof the sugar canecroptoclimatechangewithoutcateringforcarbondioxidefertilizationeffects.Thefindingswere thatsugarproductionwasveryvulnerabletoclimatechanges.Productiondecreasedby3257%under thescenariosused,mainlyasaresultoflowerwateruseefficienciesasitwasindicatedthatmorethana 269
20percentrainfallincreasewasneededtooffseta2Criseintemperature.Threeadaptiveoptionswere evaluatedintheresearch,namelyirrigation,achangeinvarietytype,andachangeinharvestdate.The adoption of irrigation mitigated all impacts of climate change while a change in harvest date had no effect under the present production system. However, the modelling indicated that there could be a beneficial impact on production with the combination of irrigation and a change in harvest date. The change in varieties showed that the genetic potential exists but will have to be incorporated in new varietiestotoleratechanges.Additionalamountsofwaterneededfortheadoptionofirrigation,were availablehydrologically,butwouldbeverycostlytoprovideintermsofextensionofinfrastructureand additionalwaterstoragecapacityrequired. V&AassessmentsforagricultureinFijihavebeenundertakenusinganintegratedmodellingframework, thePacificClimateChangeImpactsModel(PACCLIM) (http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTPACIFICISLANDS/Resources/4Chapter+3.pdf.) PACCLIMincludedthePLANTGROmodel,whichallowsthederivationofnotionalrelationshipsbetween plantresponse(suitability)anddifferentlevelsof23climateandsoilfactors.Theoutputscanbeinthe formof: Yield:relativeyieldinrelationtopotentialmaximumyield; Growingseasonlength(forannualcrops); Greatestlimitation:themostcriticallimitingfactoratagivenpointintime; Overall limitation rating: a composite index taking into account soil and climate conditions in eachsite. Athreestepapproachwastakentoassesstheimpactofclimatechangeonsugarcaneproductionon the islandofViti Levu.Thiswas firsttoestimatebaseline conditions,thenestimate futureproduction under climate change and climate variability, and finally to estimate the economic impact of climate change and climate variability. This assessment estimated a 9 percent reduction in yield for 203050 comparedwith198398,equivalenttoadeclineinthevalueofthecropofUS$13.7Mat1998prices. Deressa,Hassan&Poonyth(2005)presentedresultsassessingtheimpactofclimatechangeonSouth Africassugarcanegrowingregions.Theapproachtakenherewastouseaneconometricapproach(the Ricardianmethod),whichwasfirstdevelopedintheUSAtomeasurethevalueofclimateinagriculture. Theapproachallowstheeconomicimpactsofclimatechangetobeassessed,aswellastheassessment ofadaptationmeasures.Itrequirestimeseriesdataonclimate,landprices,andproductivity.Thestudy pooled data across all sugar cane growing regions, between irrigated and nonirrigated areas. Results from the analyses indicated that sugarcane production in South Africa is highly sensitive to climate change. The impact of an IPCC scenario of doubling carbon dioxide (which would lead to rises in temperatureby2Candprecipitationby7%)wasnegativeonsugarcaneproductioninallzonesunder bothirrigationanddrylandconditions. The small margin of difference between reduction in average net revenue per hectare for irrigated systems (26%) and dry land conditions (27%) indicated important implications for the efficacy of irrigation as an adaptation strategy, with the results suggesting that production of sugarcane under irrigationdoesnotprovideaneffectiveoptionforreducingclimatechangelossesinSouthAfrica. ThisstudywasledbyresearchersbasedattheCentreforEnvironmentalEconomicsandPolicyinAfrica whohaverecentlycompleteda3yearprogrammeenhancingtheresearchandpolicycapacityinAfrica, bothatthenationalandregionallevels,toimprovenationalandregionalassessmentsoftheeconomic 270
impact of climate change on the agricultural sector of 11 African countries, and to determine the economicvalueofvariousadaptationoptionsthatcanbedirectlyimplementedbylocalfarmerstolimit the adverse impact on local food supply. The report findings of this programme can be found at http://www.ceepa.co.za/Climate_Change/project.htmlandrepresentasignificantresourceofreference materialsonapproaches,methodsandresultstoassistfutureadaptationstudiesinJamaica. Coffee:Studieshavebeenundertakeninavarietyofcoffeegrowingcountriesassessingtheimpactof climatechangeoncoffeeproductionandyields. For example, Gay et al (2006) adopted an econometric modelling approach to estimate impacts of climate change on coffee production in the Veracruz region of Mexico to 2020. They found that temperature is the most relevant climatic factor for coffee production, since production responds significantlytoseasonaltemperaturepatterns.Theresultsfortheprojectedclimatechangeconditions for 2020 indicated that coffee production might not be economically viable for producers, since the model indicated a reduction of 34 percent of the current production. Although different economic variables(thestateandinternationalcoffeeprices,aproducerpriceindexforrawmaterialsforcoffee benefit, the national and the USA coffee stocks) were considered as potentially relevant, their work suggested that the state real minimum wage could be regarded as the most important economic variable.CoffeeproductioninMexicoisverylabourintensive,representingupto80percentofcoffee productioncosts.Asexpected,incrementsinthepriceofsuchanimportantproductionfactorincrease productioncostsandhavestrongnegativeeffectsonproduction.Thisanalysisthereforeindicatesthat socioeconomicfactorsaswellasclimatechangehasanimportantimpactoncoffeeproductionandthat climatechangeimpactsshouldnotbeassessedinisolationfromsocioeconomicfactors. StudieshavealsobeenundertakeninAfricausingarelativelysimpleGISbasedapproach.Forexample, Figure 4.6 shows the changes in Uganda of the total area suitable for growing Robusta coffee from a temperature increase of 2C. This analysis indicates that the areas suitable for growing would be significantlyreduced.Onlyhigherareaswouldremain,therestwouldbecometoohottogrowcoffee.
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Figure4.6:ImpactofTemperatureRiseonRobustaCoffeeProductionAreasinUganda
In Tanzania the impact of climate change on coffee productivity is estimated to be mixed (United RepublicofTanzania,2003).Twoareaswereselectedwhichrepresentthemajorproducersinthenorth eastern and southern parts of the country. Using a climate scenario of doubling of carbon dioxide, annualaveragetemperatureisestimatedtoincreasebetween20Cand40Cinthetwoareas(assumed tobeby2100),whileannualrainfallisestimatedtoincreaseby37percentinthenortheasternregion butdecreaseby10percentinthesouthernregion. Atemperatureincreaseof20Cinbothareasiswithintheoptimalrangeforcoffeegrowth,themajor determiningfactoronchangesinyieldisrainfall.Anincreaseinrainfallimpliesanincreaseintheyield. Inthesouthernareas,thedecreaseinrainfallisminimalandisestimatedtohaveaminimalimpacton yield. Therefore, according to the study, given these estimated changes in temperature and rainfall, yield is estimated to increase by an average of 17 percent in each area. If the annual average temperature increase is closer to 40C, this would result in the need for irrigation to supplement reduced rainfall. An alternative adaptive approach that is recommended is to develop drought and diseaseresistantcoffeevarietieswithfarmerssensitizedtousethemifcoffeeistoremainamajorcash crop in these areas. The overall conclusion from the study was that coffee is likely to be grown successfullywhererainfallisestimatedtoincreasei.e.,inthenorthern,northeasternandsoutheastern partsofTanzania. Banana: Another study undertaken by the Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa focused on looking at changes in crop water requirements for a range of crops across six districts of Kenya(CEEPA,2006).Thecropsinvestigatedincludedbanana,aswellasmaize,beansandpotatoes.For thestudy,CROPWATwasusedtoassesschangesincropwaterrequirementsfewerthanfourclimate changescenariosresultsfromtwomodels,withannualaveragetemperatureincreasesupto+40Cwith annualaveragerainfallchangesof+/20percent.Theresultsproducedforbananaweretypicalofthe 272
study results as a whole, which highlighted that for a given crop type, crop water requirements were location specific owing to the marked variability in the agroecological characteristics of the study districts.TheseconclusionsreaffirmtheneedforcountryandcropspecificstudiesforJamaica. YamandCassava:ThestudythatinvestigatedsugarcaneinFijialsolookedatthepotentialimpactsof climatechangeonyamandcassavaproductivityontheislandofVitiLevuusingthePLANTGROmodelin PACCLIM. Six climate change scenarios were considered, comparing yields under current climate with thoseestimatedfor2050.ThiswasbasedonoccurrencesofElNinoandLaNinaforbothcurrentand future climate and the impact such occurrences have on crop yield. In the case of yam, the study estimatedchangesinyieldofbetween15.4percentand+0.8percentby2050,whileforcassava,the rangewasfrom11.0percentto+4.3percentby2050. LivestockProduction:ClimatechangeimpactsonanimalhusbandryinAfricawereinvestigatedbythe Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa (CEEPA, 2006b) using the same economic approachdescribedearlierbyDeressa,Hassan&Poonyth(2005).Inthisstudy,netrevenuefromraising animals on small and large farms across Africa was regressed on climate, soils, and other control variablestotesttheclimatesensitivityoflivestockinAfrica.Thestudywasbasedonasurveyofover 9,000farmersacross11countries.Fromthisdataset,5,400farmswerefoundtorelyonlivestock.The farmsweresplitintotwogroups:smallfarmsthattendedtobemorelabourintensive,relyingonnative stocksandwithfewanimals;andlargefarmsthattendedtobemorecommercialoperations,withmuch largerstocksandmoremodernapproachestoproduction. The analysisshowedthatlivestock netrevenuesoflargefarmsinAfricafellas temperaturesrosebut that small farms were not temperature sensitive. In addition, it was found that higher temperatures reducedboththesizeofthestockandthenetrevenuepervalueofstockforlargefarms.However,for smallfarms,highertemperaturesdidnotaffectthesizeofthestockandthenetrevenuespervalueof stock increased. This indicates that large farms in Africa are vulnerable to global warming but small farmsarenot.Itislikelythatlargefarmsarevulnerablebecausetheyrelyonspeciessuchasbeefcattle that are not well suited to high temperatures. Small farms are not vulnerable because they can substitutespeciessuchasgoatsthatcantoleratehightemperatures. Theanalysisalsoindicatedthatincreasedprecipitationreduceslivestocknetrevenueperfarmforboth smallandlargefarms.Theelasticityofnetrevenueperfarmisparticularlylargeforsmallfarms.Further analysisindicatedthat increasedprecipitationreducesboththesizeofthestock andthenetrevenue per animal owned. Although higher precipitation generally increases the productivity of grasslands, it alsoleadstotheconversionofgrasslandsintoforest.Further,animaldiseasesarelikelytoincreasewith warmwetconditions.Finally,asprecipitationincreases,manyfarmersfinditadvantageoustoshiftfrom livestock to crops. The positive side of these precipitation findings is that if precipitation declines, livestock net revenues will increase, especially for small farmers. The study concluded that livestock providesanimportantagriculturaladaptationagainstreductionsinprecipitationshouldtheyoccur. 4.2.6 ProposedElementsofanAgricultureAdaptationStrategyforJamaica Asdemonstratedbythisbriefliteraturereview,therearealreadyasubstantialnumberofV&Astudies underclimatechangeandclimatevariabilitythathavebeencarriedoutinvariouscountrieslookingat cropsthatareimportanttoJamaicanagriculture.ItisthereforeimportantthattheJamaicanagricultural sector develops the technical and managerial capacity, as well as funding, to support similar climate impact agricultural assessments to first understand how vulnerability is likely to vary under future 273
climate change and climate variability, and then to take these studies forward to investigate possible adaptationstrategiesaspartofawideradaptationprogrammefortheagriculturalsector. Anumberof keyrecommendationsonthewayforwardtoaddress issuesofclimatevulnerabilityand the development of adaptation projects, programmes and policy were developed as part of the V&A analysis.TheserecommendationswerepresentedatastakeholderworkshopinMarch2008forreview, comments, and ranking. The ranking was based on a simplified multicriteria analysis approach that included considerations of relative cost of recommendations, effectiveness of proposed solutions, technical / skills availability for implementing the recommendations, technology, and number of beneficiaries,politicalandsocialacceptability,environmentalimpact,andconsistencywithobjectivesof theNationalDevelopmentPlan.Thescoresprovidedbythreebreakoutgroupswereaveraged. RecommendationsfortheAgricultureSector TheclimatechangeadaptationrecommendationsfortheagriculturesectorarepresentedinTable4.10 includingtheworkshoprankings.Arankingof1givesthemostpreferredoption.
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Table4.10:ClimateChangeAdaptationRecommendationsfortheAgricultureSector
Recommendation Leverageandcoordinate internationalfundingtomaximize benefitswithintheAgricultural Sector Improveaccesstoloan/grant fundingtodomesticcropproducers. Justification Significantinvestmentisrequiredinanumberofareas withinthesector.Ifmultilateralgrantaid&bilateral softloansaretobeusedtosupportthiswork,thenthe benefitsaccruedmustbemaximized,bothinoutputs andcapacitybuilding. Historicallythissubsectorhasnotreceivedthesame magnitudeoffinancialsupportashastheexportsub sector,yetitisimportantforfoodsecurityandrural incomes,andtoprovidefundstoallowtheseproducers toadapttoclimatechangeThiswillleadtothe empowermentofdomesticproducers. ClimatechangeisnotmentionedintheAgricultural DevelopmentStrategy20052008documentation.This suggeststhatthepotentialimpactsofclimatechangeon theagriculturalsectorhavenotyetinformedagricultural policy&practice Existingpestmanagementstrategiesmayrequire modificationunderclimatechange.Caremustbetaken thatanychangestothesestrategiesdonothave negativeimpactsontheenvironmente.g.increased pesticideuse Adaptationstrategiesincludethedevelopmentofcrop varietieswithincreasedtemperature,changesinwind regimes,droughtandpestresistance.Thisisacostly exercise,bestundertakenasacooperativeprogramme acrosstheCaribbean. Responsibility MinistriesofAgricultureand LandandInternationalTrade, FinanceandPlanning,PIOJ. WorkshopPooled Ranking 1
MinistryofAgriculture& Lands,RADA,Development BankofJamaica,PIOJ,Funding andfinancialagencies.
Raiseawarenessofthepotential impactsofclimatechangeonthe agriculturalsector,foodsecurity andculturalpractices
MinistryofAgriculture& Lands,withsupportfromMet Serviceandothers(e.g.UWI climatemodelinggroup)as wellasTertiaryInstitutions andFarmingOrganizations. MinistryofAgriculture& Lands,ResearchInstitutes, IndustryBodies,RADA, internationalandregional organizations. MinistryofAgriculture& Lands,ResearchInstitutes, UWI,CARDI,IICAandACP countries.Regionalinstitutions andinternational organizations.
Reviewapproachestointegrated croppingandmanagementsystems underclimatechange
Developregionallinkstofund& promoteplantbreeding programmesforcommoncropsand livestock
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Recommendation Support&fundincreasedwateruse efficiency across irrigated agriculture Support & expand funding of the IWCAM programme as well as internationally hosted coastal zone management and other related initiatives. Initiate Climate Change Working GroupforAgriculture
Justification Improved water use efficiency will reduce demands on existing sources and infrastructure, reduce costs and reducevulnerabilitytodrought. One of the benefits of improved land use management practices is protection of water resources quantities and quality.Itisruralandagriculturalcommunitiesthat will have a key part to play here at the farm and local villagescale. Thereisaneedtocoordinateeffortsacrossthesector, to provide focus and direction for research & policy development including a global focus on world market trendsonfoodproductionandfoodsecurity Analogue approaches have been used in this study to illustrate the potential impacts of climate change on majorcropsinJamaica.Detailedcrop/country/climate specific assessments are required to inform adaptation programmeandpolicydevelopment Accesstoinsuranceproductsmayprovideonemethodof adaptationtokeysubsectors,althoughtheiroperation and expense must also be considered under climate change
Responsibility NIC and other Ag. water providersandconsumers NEPA, WRA, NWC, Ministry of Ag & Lands, PIOJ, Forestry DeptandRADA.
WorkshopPooled Ranking 5
MinistryofAgriculture&Lands toleadsupportedbyResearch Institutes,Industrybodies. Ministry of Agriculture & Lands, Research Institutes, UWI, CARDI, IICA and ACP countries Ministries of Agriculture and Land, Finance and Planning, insurance agencies and brokers, farmers organizations.
Develop modeling approaches and tools to allow assessment of impactsofclimatechangeonexport & domestic crops and meat production Reviewroleoffinancialinstruments to provide insurance protection to keysubsectors
10
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Additionalcommentsandfeedbackwerereceivedfromtheworkinggroups: The Jagdeo Initiative presented by the President of Guyana in 2005 to CARICOM Heads of State provides a framework for the sustainable development of agriculture throughout the Caribbeanandhasidentifiedtheneedtoadapttothepotentialimpactsofclimatechangeinthe region,aswellasstabilizingregionalfoodsecurity; The use of economic instruments to assist with adaptation and changing practices and behaviourwasraised,particularlyfocusedondomesticcropandlivestockproducers; Wastewaterreusefortheagriculturalsectorwasraisedasapossibleunderusedwaterresource, includingflushingeffluentfromfishfarmingontonearbylands; TheneedforaNationalClimateChangeCommitteewasemphasized. The highest placed recommendation proposed developing mechanisms to maximize benefits to the agricultural sector from international funding. This was followed by the recommendation to improve accesstoloansandgrantsfordomesticcropproduces.Therearetworecommendationsrankedequal third:onetoraiseawarenessofthepotentialimpactsofclimatechangeontheagriculturesectorand onetoreviewapproachestointegratedcroppingandmanagementsystemsunderclimatechange. The recommendations receiving the lowest scores were the setting up of a climate change working group for agriculture (although one group placed this second), and the proposed development of modellingapproachesandimpactassessmenttools(whichthepreparationofthethisreporthasbeen showntobeasignificantgapintheknowledgebasetoaiddecisionmaking),andtheproposedreviewof theroleoffinancialinstrumentstoprovideinsuranceprotection.Thislastrankedoptionwasplacedlast bytwoofthethreegroups. 4.2.7 AgricultureVulnerabilityandAdaptationAssessmentConstraints Muchoftheassessmentfortheagriculturesectorwasqualitativeinnature,althoughsomequantitative analysis was presented such as estimates of the costs to agriculture resulting from Jamaicas climatic variabilityandtheimpactsfromthepassageoftropicalstormsandhurricanes. Therearealsoanumberofotherimportantinitiativesandprojectswhosefindingsandoutcomeswould havegreatlystrengthenedtheanalyses.Theseincluded: TheMACCfundedpilotVulnerabilityandCapacityAssessmentstudyinSouthernClarendonthat bringsclimatechange,sealevelrise,waterresources,andagriculturewithinasingleproject; TheIWCAMprojectfocusingofwatershedandlandmanagementissues. Necessarytechnicaltrainingandcapacitybuildingwithintheagriculturalsectoronapproachestoimpact assessment and adaptationdevelopment began withthe attendance ofJamaican representatives at a regionaltrainingsessioninGuyanainApril2008.Suchactivitiesshouldbeencouraged,supportedand expandedsincetheywillinformpolicydevelopmentanddecisionmakingwithrespecttounderstanding existingandfuturevulnerabilitiesofJamaicanagricultureandhowbesttocounterthesevulnerabilities whileatthesametimeensuringincreasedfoodsecurity.
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4.3 TheWaterResourcesSector Jamaicais characterizedbyaseries ofmountainrangesorientated along themajor axisofthe island. Themountainsintheeastgenerallyhaveelevationsinexcessof1000m;thehighestpeakat2,257m. Thesouthernhalfoftheislandcontainsmajoralluviallowlandsassociatedwithcoastalswamps. 4.3.1 Geology,HydrogeologyandHydrologyofJamaica Jamaica'sphysiographycloselyreflectsthethreemajorrocktypesofwhichitiscomposed.Theserock typesare,inchronologicalorder(youngesttooldest): i. LateTertiarytoEarlyQuaternaryalluviumsofgenerallymoderatepermeability,whichoccupy about15percentofthelandareamainlyinthecoastalplainsandfloorsofinteriorvalleys. ii. Tertiarylimestonewithvariablydevelopedkarstification(i.e.,withirregularitiesfromerosion) andmoderatetohighpermeability,whichoccupyabout60percentofthelandarea. iii. Cretaceous volcaniclastics of low permeability, which occupy about 25 percent of the land areamainlywithininliersalongtheuplandaxis. The geologic units of Jamaica are divided into either aquifers (i.e., an underground layer of water bearing permeable rock) or aquicludes (i.e., a solid, impermeable layer that lies under or over an aquifer). The following hydrostratigraphic units have been identified and their distribution across JamaicaispresentedinFigure4.7. Basal aquiclude Comprises volcaniclastic and limestone rocks on which the other units are deposited.Itoccupiesabout25percentoftheisland'ssurfaceareaoutcroppingmainlyinthe Blue Mountains to the east and along the central spine of central and western Jamaica. The basement aquiclude outcrops are related to dense surface stream networks which have high peakflowsinthewetseasonandlowpeakflowsinthedryseason. Limestone aquifer Comprises highly karstified limestone. The limestone aquifer rests uncomfortablyonthebasementaquicludeandthickenstowardsthecoast.Itoccupiesabout50 percentoftheisland'ssurfacearea.Thelimestoneaquiferoutcropsarerelatedtoanabsenceof surface streams and to welldeveloped subsurface drainage systems. This is due to the high infiltrationcapacityofthelimestoneaquifer LimestoneaquicludeComprisesfinegrainedchalkandoccursasacoastalband.Thelimestone aquiclude functions as a subsurface barrier and creates subsurface groundwater reservoirs withinthelimestoneaquifer.Thisaccountsforthehighstreamflowsinthedryseasonofrivers draininglimestoneaquiferareas. Coastal aquiclude. Comprises soft marls which are patchily distributed along the coast. It functionsasasubsurfacebarriertopondgroundwaterwithinthelimestoneaquifers. Coastalaquifer.Comprisesraisedreefspatchilydistributedalongthenorthcoast. Alluvium aquifer. Comprises the upper sequences of coastal alluviums in the Rio Minho, Rio Cobre,Kingston,andBlueMountainBasins. AlluviumAquiclude.Comprisesinteriorvalleyclays.
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Figure4.7:JamaicasHydrostratigraphicUnits
Source:http://www.geocities.com/watercaribbean/23.html#TNC
Thecentralmountainrangesformthemainwatershedforriverswhichdraineithertothenorthorthe southcoasts.Surfacerunoffpredominatesonoutcropsofbasementrocksandinteriorvalleyalluviums, whereasgroundwateristhedominantwaterresourceassociatedwiththekarsticlimestoneandcoastal alluviums.Thesurfacewaterresourcesarecharacterizedbyamarkedseasonalvariabilityinflow. Streamsflowingnorthwardoriginatemainlyinthetertiarylimestone.Thesearemostlyperennialrivers, like the Martha Brea and White Rivers, with significant base flow components and low seasonal flow variability.ExceptionsaretheGreatRiverandseveralriversintheBlueMountains(North)Basin,which, like many of the south draining rivers, are characterized by widely varying seasonal flows and comparatively low base flow. Some of their catchments consist of cretaceous volcaniclastics of low permeability.TheBlackRiverdrainsapredominantlylimestonecatchment. HydrologicalBasinsandWatershedManagementUnits Jamaica is subdivided into ten major hydrological basins. A basin is a geographical area drained by a particularsurfacewaterand/orgroundwatersystem.Thebasinboundariesaredefinedsuchthatthere isnoflowfromonebasintoanother.Thebasinsarefurthersubdividedinto26watershedmanagement units(WMU).TheWMUsandbasinsarepresentedinFigure4.8andlistedinTable4.11.Alsopresented inTable4.11areestimatesofkeyhydrometeorologicalvariables.
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Figure4.8:JamaicasBasinsandWaterManagementUnits
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Table4.11:JamaicasHydrologicalBasinsandWaterManagementUnits Basin/Water Management Area(km2) AnnualAverage Units Rainfall1(mm) IBlueMountainSouth 15PlaintainGardenRiver 186.7 512 16MorantRiver 375.7 805 17YallahsRiver 200.4 418 IIKingston 18HopeRiver 241.4 302 IIIRioCobre 19RioCobre 1256.5 1747 IVRioMinho 20RioMinho 789.3 1058 21MilkRiver 882.1 1364 22GutAlligatorHoleRiver 142.9 224 VBlackRiver 23BlackRiver 1698.3 3318 VICabaritaRiver 24DeansValleyRiver 96.1 181 25CabaritaRiver 284.3 669 26NewSavannaRiver 76.3 153 1S.NegrilOrangeRiver 139.9 246 VIIGreatRiver 2LuceaRiver 253.2 569 3GreatRiver 327.7 734 4MontegoRiver 283.3 559 VIIIMarthaBraeRiver 5MarthaBraeRiver 622.2 1055 IXDryHarbourMountains 6RioBuenoWhiteRiver 1563.1 2613 XBlueMountainsNorth 7RioNuevo 111.1 209 8OracabessaPageeRiver 169.5 305 9WagwaterRiver 315.1 641 10PencarBuffBayRiver 202.1 512 11SpanishRiver 121.6 449 12SwiftRiver 97.2 344 13RioGrande 302.4 1401 14DriversRiver 210.9 692
Notes: (1)19511980annualaveragerainfall (2)EstimatesfromWaterResourcesAuthority(2005)
AnnualEvapo transpiration2(mm) 230 431 224 162 935 566 730 120 1686 97 314 82 131 256 330 252 521 1398 94 137 288 178 157 103 420 208
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4.3.2 InstitutionalArrangementsfortheManagementofWaterResourcesinJamaica TheMinistryofWater&Housingisthefocalpointforactivitiesinthewatersectorandhasassumed theroleofthemaincoordinatingagencyinthesector.Ithasresponsibilityforplanning,development, and operations in the water sector. This responsibility is discharged through the Water Resources Authority (WRA), the National Water Commission (NWC), the National Meteorological Service (NMS), andtheNationalIrrigationCommission(NIC). TheWaterResourcesAuthority The first organized programme for the systematic collection of stream flow data was initiated by the Water Resources Sectionof the Public Works Department in 1954. The WaterResources Division was established in 1965, when the Water Resources Section was transferred to the Geological Survey DepartmentwithintheMinistryofMiningandNaturalResources.Between1979and1984,theWater Resources Division was transferred to the Ministries of Local Government, Agriculture, and Public Utilities. In 1985, the Water Resources Division was merged into the Underground Water Authority (UWA). The mandate of the UWA was contained in the Underground Water Control Act (1959). The responsibilityforthepreparationofanationalwaterresourcesdevelopmentplanwasassignedtothe UWA in 1985. In 1993, the UWA was transferred to the Ministry of Water and Transport. The Water ResourcesAuthority(WRA),formerlyknownastheUndergroundWaterAuthority,wasestablishedby the Water Resources Act of 1995 which repealed the Underground Water Control Act and the Water Act.TheWRAthereforereplacedtheUWAasJamaica'sregulatoryhydrologicalagency. TheWRAisresponsibleforthemanagement,protection,andcontrolledallocationanduseofJamaica's surfaceandundergroundwaterresources.Thisresponsibilitywillbeachievedthroughthedevelopment and administration of a long term comprehensive Water Resources Development Master Plan for Jamaica. The latest update in this long term planning process is the 2005 National Water Resources MasterPlanforJamaica,whichiscurrentlyupdatedasthe2008WaterresourcesDevelopmentMaster Plan. This document seeks to enable rational decision making on current and future water use and allocation,providingeconomicandenvironmentallysounddevelopmentoptions. TheWaterResourcesActof1995requiresthatonmattersofwaterresourcesdevelopmentandquality, theWRAconsultwith,andprovidetechnicaladviceandinformationto,andcoordinatedevelopment withseveral other government agencies including the NWC, NIC, Ministry ofHealth, Commissioner of Mines,NationalEnvironmentandPlanningAgency,NationalWorksAgency,ParishCouncils,andothers. TheNationalWaterCommission TheNationalWaterCommission(NWC)isresponsibleforurbanwatersupplyandisthelargestprovider ofsewerageservices.TheNWCalsohasresponsibilityformanyoftheparishwatersystemsandsupplies 75percentofthepopulationwithpotablewater.Itistheprincipalimplementingagencyresponsiblefor waterresourcesdevelopmentinthenonagriculturalsector. TheNWCisastatutorybodycreatedin1980undertheNationalWaterCommissionAct.Section4(1)of theActstatesthatthefunctionsoftheNWCareasfollows: PrepareandsubmittotheMinisterfromtimetotimeproposalsfortheestablishmentofan efficient,coordinatedandeconomicalwatersupplysystemcapableofmeetingtheneeds forwaterthroughouttheIsland; 282
PrepareandsubmitforapprovaloftheMinisterdetailsofschemesforthedevelopmentof waterresourcesandthesupplyofwaterinparticularareas,andtocarryoutsuchschemes whentheyareapproved; Keepunderconstantreviewthequality,reliability,andavailabilityofwatersupplyservices asawholeandtherateschargedforsuchservicesandadvicetheMinisterontheseand any other matters relating to water supplies in the Island which may be referred to the CommissionbytheMinister; Within the limits of its resources, provide and improve water supply services throughout theisland.
TheNationalIrrigationCommission TheNationalIrrigationCommission(NIC)isresponsibleforthedevelopmentofagriculturalwatersupply sources andfor theoperationalaspectsoftheproductionanddistribution.Itwasincorporated under theCompaniesActin1986.TheprimarygoalsoftheNICaretoincreaseproductivityandprofitabilityin theagriculturesectorandtoachieveandmaintainfinancialselfsustenanceoftheirrigationindustry. In 1998, the NIC was commissionedby the government toprepare a National Irrigation Development Plan (NIDP). The Master Plan of the NIDP assessed the current and potential state of the irrigated agricultural sector, the constraints and deficiencies facing the sector, and proposed policy, and the strategy and development plans to relieve the constraints and overcome the deficiencies within the sector.Approximately25,000haor10%ofcultivatedlandsinJamaicaarecurrentlyirrigated,whilethe NIDP estimated the potential irrigable areas to be over 90,000ha. The NIDP is scheduled for implementation over a 17year period (until 2015). Over 120 projects were identified, of which 51 projects areproposed for implementation, with 27 of them recommended for implementation during thefirstfiveyearsoftheplan.DetailsofrecentprojectscoveringtheperiodSeptember2007toJanuary 2010associatedwithimplementationoftheNIDPcanbefoundat http://www.nicjamaica.com/NIDP_Achievements.htm. NationalMeteorologicalService The Weather Branch of the National Meteorological Service (NMS) is concerned with the observation and forecasting of weather conditions over and around the island. It also maintains a continuous hurricane watch during the hurricane season and is responsible for the issuance of severe weather warnings.Dataforforecastsareobtainedlocallyfromobservationpointsatthesurface,aswellasfrom theradarstation,andinternationallythroughtelecommunicationlinkswithregionalandinternational centresandviastationaryandpolarorbitingsatellites. TheClimateBranchisresponsibleformaintainingacurrentdatabaseoftheclimateofJamaicaandfor usingthisdataininformingproductivesectorsofthecountry.ADataAcquisitionSectionmaintainsan islandwidenetworkofrainfallandclimatologicalstations;aDataProcessingSectiongathers,archives andanalysestheclimatologicaldatawithaviewtomonitoringandassessingtheclimateoftheisland; and an Applied Meteorology Section processes the needs of clients, which include crop water requirements,designcriteriaforhydrologistsandengineers,andclimatologicalinformationforresolving weatherrelatedlegalandinsuranceissues.
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Otherrelevantorganisationsinclude: RuralWaterSupplyLtd:ThiscompanyisanAgencyoftheMinistryofTransportandWorksandfocuses ondevelopingwatersupplysolutionsforJamaicasruralcommunities,bothforpublicwatersupplyas wellasforlocalirrigationneeds.Itwasestablishedin2005,withthemergeroftheCaribEngineering CompanyandtheNWCsRuralWaterProgramme.ItsaimistoensurethatallJamaicanshaveaccessto pipedwaterby2010.Thecompanyseekstoincludeprivatesectorandlocalcommunitysupport,asitis these communities that will have responsibility for managing and maintaining the systems once they havebeenputinplacebythecompany.ThecompanyalsosupervisedtheRuralWaterSupplyProject, fundedbytheInterAmericanDevelopmentBank(IDB)andtheGovernmentofJamaica,whichaimedto improvebasicsanitaryconditionsbyincreasingthecoverageofpotablewaterandsanitationservicesin poorruralareas.TheprojectwasdueforcompletioninFebruary2008. National Environment & Planning Agency: The management of watershed protection is vested principally with the National Environment & Planning Agency (NEPA). NEPA produced a National Watershed Policy to address the most severe constraints to watershed management and to seek to employstrategiestoensurethesustainableuseanddevelopmentofwatersheds.Thepolicystatesthe essentialelementsofanationalwatershedmanagementinitiative.Itseekstodefineopportunitiesfor thepeople,forthegovernmentandnongovernmentorganizations,andfortheinternationalcommunity toparticipateinthesustainablemanagementandconservationofwatershedsofJamaicaintheinterest ofwatersupplyandbiodiversity.Thereare12guidingprinciplestothePolicy,including: Longtermwatershedmanagement; Design,planningandimplementationofwatershedmanagementinterventions; Specialattentiontopeopleinwatershedareasandtheirenvironment; Integralprotectionandproductionfunctionsforlandandwaterresources; Assessmentoflandusedimpactsandrehabilitationofdamages; Compromise rather than confrontation and complementary rather than contradictory in resolvingconflictsofinterest; Cooperationamongagenciesandthepublictomanagewatershedseffectively. TheWatershedProtectionAct(1963)isthelawgoverningwatershedsandisadministeredbyNEPA.The primaryfocus oftheAct isthe conservation of waterresourcesbyprotectinglandinoradjoiningthe watersheds.TheActisintendedtoensureproperlanduseinvitalwatershedareas,reducesoilerosion, maintainoptimumlevelsofgroundwater,andpromoteregularflowsinwaterways. NationalWaterSectorPolicy InJanuary1999,theGovernmentofJamaica,throughtheMinistryofWater,preparedandadopteda WaterSectorPolicy.Thispolicyoutlinedthecurrentsituationandproblemswithinthewatersector, definedgovernmentobjectivestoaddresstheissues,andsetoutthemodeofimplementation.To ensurethatthepolicywasimplementedeffectively,theGovernmentmandatedthewateragenciesto prepareaWaterSectorStrategy.ThisStrategywillindicatehowthepoliciesaretobeimplemented,and seekstoensureanintegratedandcoordinatedapproachbetweenalltheagencies.TheresultingWater SectorPolicy,StrategyandActionPlanwaspromulgatedin200430withitsmainwatersupplyand sanitationobjectivestoensurethatallhouseholdshaveaccesstowaterby2010,sewerallmajortowns
30
http://www.wra.gov.jm/pdf/water_policy_2004.pdf
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by2020,aswellasrehabilitateexistingnoncompliantfacilitiestoachievecompliancewithnational environmentalstandards.Thedocumentalsostatesthattheobjectivewithrespecttowaterresources strategyisthemanagementandregulationofthewaterresourcesofJamaicawithaviewtoits sustainabledevelopmentandoptimalusetosatisfyallofthewatersupplyneedsoftheislandinan efficient,costeffectiveandtimelymanner.Strategiesandanactionplanarealsopresentedforirrigated agriculture. 4.3.3 TheRoleofWaterResourcesintheJamaicanEconomy WaterresourceshaveasignificantroleintheJamaicaneconomy.Waterisavaluablenaturalresource thatsupportsimportantsectorsincludingrecreation&tourism,mining,foodandbeverageprocessing, irrigated agriculture and manufacturing. This significance is presented in Table 4.12, which shows the contribution of the various economic sectors to Jamaicas GDP and foreign earnings, as well as their annualuseofwaterandregionsofconcentration(byWaterManagementUnit). Table4.12:ApproximateEconomicContributionsandWaterUse,bySectors(2005) Sector Direct Foreign Employment Annual Principal Contributionto Exchange WaterUse Locations GDP Earnings Units J$billion J$billion 1000s 106m3/yr WMU Manufacturing 125(28%) 15(8%) 215(19%) 16(1%) 18,19 includingfood Otherservices 120(24%) 597(53%) 10(1%) All Hotels 106(24%) 100(55%) 75(6.5%) 4(0.3%) 4,5,6,18 Miningand 60(14%) 55(31%) 6(0.5%) 60(5%) 6,19,20,21,23 Processing Irrigated 31(7%) 10(6%) 237(21%) 439 19,20,23 Agriculture (33%) Residential N/A N/A N/A 274 18,19 (21%) Environment N/A N/A N/A 510 All (39%)
Source:WaterResourcesAuthority(2005),Box2.1
Themajorusersofwaterareirrigatedagriculture,residentialwateruse,andtheenvironment.Thereis no direct correlation between contribution to GDP, foreign earnings, and employment within each sectorandtheamountofwaterused.Forexample,manufacturingprovidesthehighestcontributionto GDP (28%) but uses only 1 percent of annual water use. Irrigated agriculture has the highest annual wateruse(33%),butonlycontributes14percentoftotalGDP. Economic and other human activities in Jamaica have created a number of pollutionproblems. These includesewageeffluent,aswellaswastegeneratedbysugarfactories,aluminaprocessingplantsand rum distilleries. Improperly treated or disposed sewage has been found to contaminate parts of the LiguenuaaquiferintheKingston&St.Andrewregion.Improvementsinthetreatmentanddisposalof sewageeffluentshouldleadtoanimprovedsituation.Dunderfromrumdistilleriesandsugarrefineries hascontaminatedbothsurfaceand groundwater,leading to theoccurrence of algal blooms, fish kills, and the loss of the affected streams for use by local communities. The red mud waste from alumina 285
processing plants and its discharge into unlined or partially lined holding facilities has resulted in extensive contamination of both groundwater and surface water. Wells and springs have become contaminatedanddrinkingwatersuppliesthreatened. Humanactivitieshavealsoindirectlyhadanegativeimpactonwaterqualitythroughoverabstractionof groundwatersources,whichhasledtosalineintrusion.Thishasoccurredasfrontalintrusionfromthe seaintocoastalaquifers,orthroughsalineupconingacrossaquiferboundaries. PublicWaterSupplyandSewage The vast majority of the public water supply in Jamaica is provided by the NWC. A summary of the NWCswaterproductionsupplyandperformancefor200206ispresentedinTable4.13.Thedeclinein productionin2006comparedwith2005wastheresultofdroughtconditions,whichweremoreacutein eastern Jamaica. In some areas, production fell to 30 percent of capacity from July to September. In somelocations,thesituationwasaggravatedbyplantoutages. Table4.13:SummaryofNationalWaterCommissionWaterSupplyPerformance(200206) PerformanceIndicator 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006* WaterProduction(Millionlitres/yr) 276,835.5 293,382.0 280,308.0 296,454.1 294,384.0 Consumption(Millionlitres/yr) 95,094.0 96,329.0 94,729.0 94,415.7 95,318.0 Totalnumberofconnections 375,431 388,460 400,102 410,286 418,347 TotalRevenue(J$M) 5257.1 5793.0 7293.1 8436.2 9297.4
*preliminaryestimate Source:PlanningInstituteofJamaica,2007
TheNWCintroducedanumberofdroughtmanagementmeasurestodealwiththesituation,including scheduledrestrictionsonsupply,maximisingabstractionsfromsomesourcesandwatertrucking.Note that total metered consumption was slightly increased in 2006 compared with 2005, despite drought conditions. As can be seen from Table 4.13, of the total water produced in 2006, 67.6 percent was nonrevenue water,i.e.,thedifferencebetweenproductionandbilledconsumption.Thisincludeslossasaresultof theft, leakage, and underestimated consumption. Measures to reduce this are a priority for the NWC andmostoftheprojectsbeingundertakenbytheNWCincludeactivitiestoreducetheselosses.For example, almost 21,000 water meters were installed islandwide in 2006, following from a similar numberinstalledin2005.Theincreasednumberofconnectionsin2005and2006,alongwithchangesin thewatertariff,increasedrevenuesbyJ$861.2Mbetween2005and2006. IrrigatedAgriculture Irrigatedagricultureaccountsforapproximately25,360ha(9.3%ofcultivatedlands),whilerepresenting around 55 percentofJamaicastotalwaterusage(excludingenvironmental needs). Thishighdemand reflectslowirrigation efficiencies, estimatedtobearound40percent, althoughthis variesdependent upon method of irrigation, management of irrigation system, investment, and other factors. There is scopetoimproveirrigationefficienciesbymovingawayfromsurfacefurrowmethods,whichinthemid 1990saccountedfor80percentofthesystemssuppliedbytheNICand70percentofprivatelyoperated systemsincludingaquaculture,tomoreefficientoverheadsprinkleranddripirrigationsystems. 286
However,improvementinirrigationefficienciesmaynotleadtoareductionontotalwaterwithdrawals, asanywatersavingscouldbeusedtobringnewareasunderirrigationandthereforeleavetheoverall consumptionofwaterresourcesforthissectorunchanged.TheNIC(NIC,2004)estimatesthatirrigated lands will double by around 2025. Improved efficiencies may also have other consequences, where inefficient irrigationisasignificantsource of aquiferrecharge,e.g.,forthe alluvial aquifersof theRio CobreandRioMinho,andwhereinvestmentinnewirrigationmethodscouldhavenegativeimpactson thewaterbalancesofcoastalaquifers. Aquacultureisalsoanimportantuserofwater,andrequireshighqualitywaterfortherearingoftilapia. Industry Comparedwithirrigatedagriculture,othersectorsoftheJamaicaneconomyaresmallerusersofwater. However,certainindustrialactivitiesareconcentratedinspecificpartsoftheislandandthereforehave agreaterimpactonlocalwaterusesuchasthebauxitealuminaoperationsincentralJamaica. TourismisanimportantpartoftheJamaicaneconomyandthehighestcontributortoforeignearnings. The hotel sector has one of the lowest water demands, but its requirements are high, given the importanceofareliableandsafewatersupplytoitscustomers.Linkedwiththisistheimportanceof waterbasedrecreationalactivities.AsindicatedinTable4.12,meetingenvironmentalrequirementsisa significantproportionofJamaicasoverallannualwateruse.Thishasbenefitsnotjustinconservationof theaquaticenvironmentandwiderbenefitstoJamaicansociety,butalsotomaintaintheattractiveness ofJamaicaswaterbasedattractionstothetourismsector. TheEnvironment Asnotedabove,thereareclearecologicalandeconomicreasonsforexplicitlyincludingenvironmental flow requirements within any assessment of the economic role of water resources in the Jamaican economy.Aquaticecosystemsprovidearangeofbenefits,e.g.,watersuppliesandrecreationalsites,as well as natural water treatment in streams and wetlands. Reducing water flows in both river and groundwater ecosystems will have a negative impact on the flora and fauna of these ecosystems but alsoonthehumancommunitiesthatdependonthesesystems. The estimates of environmental flow needs presented in Table 4.12 are based on those presented in Water Resources Authority (2005). These include estimates of required groundwater submarine discharges to the sea to prevent saline intrusion as well as estimates of minimum stream flow requirementstomaintainaquaticecology.However,itisrecognisedthatespeciallyforthestreamflow requirementsfurtherworkisneededtorefinetheestimatesgiven. 4.3.4 VulnerabilitiesofJamaicanWaterResourcestoCurrentClimate Table 4.14 presents the estimated annual water resources situation for each of Jamaicas basins for 1995. The current 1990 Water Resources Master Development Master Plan is in the process of final updateandrevisionforpublicationin2008,andthereforethevaluespresentedinthistablearesubject toreviewandfurtherdetaildowntotheMWUlevel.
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Table4.14: AnnualWaterResourcesResourceDemandBalance(106m3/yr),byWaterManagement Unit(1995) Basin Potentially Imports 1995 Surplus/ Surplusor AvailableWater Demands Deficit Deficit/ Resources Resource IBlueMountainSouth 165 0 57 108 65% IIKingston 46 67 90 23 20% IIIRioCobre 415 0 397 18 4% IVRioMinho 466 9 311 164 35% VBlackRiver 674 1 60 615 91% VICabaritaRiver 451 0 26 425 94% VIIGreatRiver 380 10 21 369 95% VIIIMarthaBrae 170 0 31 139 82% IXDryHarbourMountains 719 0 19 700 97% XBlueMountainNorth 611 1 46 566 92%
Source:ArmyCorpEngineers,2001
The estimates of potentially available water resources are based on annual average conditions under currentclimate.Theestimatesarebasedonthefollowingwaterbalanceequationsandcalculationsfor groundwaterandsurfacewatercontributionsrespectively: AquiferSafeYield=(PrecipitationEvapotranspiration)SurfaceRunoffGWReturnFlow RiverSafeYield=Q90lowflow(flowthatoccursatleast90%ofthetime) PotentiallyAvailableResources=Aquifer+RiverSafeYields Demandshavebeenestimatedforagriculture,domesticuse,industryandtourism,aswellasexportsto neighbouringcatchments.ForKingstonandtheRioCobreandRioMinhobasins,additionalgroundwater recharge was estimated to be from reservoir leakage and irrigation respectively. Kingston, the Rio Minho, Black River, Great River and Blue Mountains North also receive imports from neighbouring basins.ThemainrecipientisKingston,whichreceiveswaterfromboththeBlueMountainsSouthand theRioCobre. AscanbeseeninTable4.14,threeBasinsshowclearevidenceofwaterstress,asmeasuredbytheratio ofsurplusordeficittoavailableresourceexpressedasapercentage.TheseareRioCobreat4percent, Kingstonat20percentandRioMinhoat35percent.Thenexthighestvalueis65percentfortheBlue MountainSouthBasin.ThisrelatesdirectlytotheexporttoKingstonfromthisbasin.Fortheremaining basins,thisvaluerangesfrom82percentto97percent. In the case of the Kingston Basin, demands are driven by municipal and industrial needs, given that Kingston, the capital of Jamaica, is located within this basin. In contrast, for the Rio Cobre and Rio Minho,itisirrigationneedsthatarethegreaterandwhichdrivedemandforwaterinthesebasins.Thus, even under average climatic conditions, a significant proportion of the Jamaican population and importantpartsoftheJamaicaneconomyarevulnerabletotheriskofwatersupplyshortfalls. The analysis presented in Table 4.14 is limited to a comparison of water resources availability and demandonly. Itdoes notfactorin waterdelivery/engineeringsystems, theircapacitiesorreliabilities, and therefore the results only present a preliminary analysis of basin water resources vulnerability. A 288
furtherrefinementofthisanalysiswouldincludeassessmentsofengineeringcapacitiesofintakes/wells /pipelines/treatmentplants/servicereservoirsforeachwatersupplysystem. ItisalsothecasethattheanalysispresentedinTable4.14isbasedonannualaverageconditions.The performanceofwaterdeliverysystemsunderarangeofclimaticanddroughtconditionsisalsoneeded in order to assess levels of service of supply under existing climate and how these levels of service comparewiththewaterprovidersowntargetlevelsofservice.Suchanapproachrequirestheadoption ofmorecomplexapproachesandmethodsofanalysis,theuseofenhancedwaterresourcesmodelling tools as well as the time series data and other data on the engineering aspects of the water delivery systemsofinterest. DespitethepreliminarynatureoftheresultspresentedinTable4.14,evidencethatbasinsarealready understresswithrespecttotheirwaterresourcescanbeseenintheanalysisofhydrometricandhydro geological time series data. For example, Figure 4.9 presents a time series analysis of groundwater elevationsfromanimportantalluvialaquiferinsoutheastStCatherinewithintheRioCobreBasin.This aquiferwasusedforirrigationthroughtothe1980s,andfromthe1990sswitchedtobepredominantly usedforpublicwatersupplytothenewtowndevelopmentofGreaterPortmore. Figure4.8: Lime Tree#2 in SE St Catherine Trend Analysis: Observed Annual Maximum Series GroundwaterElevations(1970to2002)
DataSource:WaterResourcesAuthority
Groundwater elevations at this location are influenced by nearby production wells. To reduce these local influences, only annual maximum elevations have been plotted. These annual maximum values giveanindicationofwhatishappeningregionallytogroundwaterelevationsandthusstoragewithinthe aquifer.Ascanbeseen,thereisbothacyclicalpatternaswellasalongtermtrendofdeclineelevations. 289
Theannualmaximumelevationatthestartofthe1970swasabove10mAD,buthaddeclinedtoaround 5mAD by 2000. During this 30year period, the annual maximum series shows increases in elevation duringwetterperiods,followedbydeclinesinelevationduringaverageanddrierperiods.Nevertheless, thekeyfeatureisthelongtermdeclineingroundwaterelevations,indicatingthatabstractionsfromthe aquiferaretakingplaceatagreaterratethanthelongtermrecharge,withtheresultthatgroundwater storageisdeclining,asseeninthegroundwaterelevations.Thisisacoastalaquifer,andthereforeisat increasingriskofsalinefrontalintrusionwiththecontinuationofsuchtrendsintothefuture. Further evidence that the Rio Cobre Basin is under stress can be seen in the time series of annual (estimated)minimummonthlyflowsfortheRioCobreatBogWalkpresentedinFigure4.10.Thisplot shows annual minimum monthly stream flows from 1954 to 2004, indicating a decline in these flows fromameanvalueof5.5m3/sinthe1950sto3.5m3/sinthe2000s.Noevidenceofsimilardeclineswas foundintheneighbouringRioMinhoBasinnorwastrendsfoundinthemonthlyrainfallrecordforthe RioCobre.Therefore,itismorethanlikelythatincreasedabstractionsupstreamofBogWalkarehaving an impact on stream flows. This presents further evidence for the stressed and vulnerable nature of water resources under current conditions, and raises issues related to water resources monitoring, management,andcontrolwithintheRioCobreandthroughoutJamaica. Figure4.10:RioCobreatBogWalkEstimatedAnnualMinimumMonthlyStreamFlows(1954to2004)
Datasource:WaterResourcesAuthority
PublicWaterSupply Issues of low levels of service of water supply to the Jamaican population are not just limited to the mostvulnerableWMUsdiscussedearlier.Therearealargenumberofsmallercommunitiesthatrelyon 290
springsandrunofriversourcesfortheirwatersupplyandwhich,duringperiodsofdrought,sufferfrom shortfallsinsupplyandreducedreliability.Inmanycases,theseproblemsarerelatedtoalackofsurface waterstorageintheselocalities,wheresourceyieldsaredrivenbydroughtflows,andreservoirstorage is not available to provide water resources during times of drought for example, communities in Clarendon,St.Mary,andSt.Thomas. In parallel with the reduced availability of water resources during drought periods, there are also problems resulting from lack on investment in water supply infrastructure. This is in terms of both developmentofnewinfrastructureaswellasmaintenanceofexistingsystems.TheNWCandtheRural Water Supply Company have a number of projects and initiatives under development and at implementationtoimproveperformanceandeithermaintainorenhancethelevelofserviceofferedto customers,withintheconstraintsoftheexistingclimate. Thepublicwatersupplysystemisalsovulnerabletothepassingoftropicalstormsandhurricanes.Table 4.15summarisestheestimatedcoststotheNWCfromtropicalstormsandheavyrainfallperiodssince 2002.Directcostsarethoserelatedtodirectdamagestoplantandequipment,whileindirectdamages arerelatedtolossofincome. Table4.15:EstimatedLossestoNWCResultingfromRecentTropicalStorms/Hurricanes(200205) TropicalStorm/Hurricane DirectLosses(J$M) IndirectLosses(J$M) May2002storms 54.805 30 HurricaneIvan(2004) 90 488 HurricanesDennis&Emily(2005) TotalLosses=400 HurricaneWilma(2005) 47.4 N/A
Sources: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (2002), Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) et al 2004, Planning Institute of Jamaica (2005a), Planning Institute of Jamaica(2005b)respectively
Problems commonly encountered include silting of settling tanks and filters, damage to pumps and electrical equipment, scouring of pipelines, blocked canals, landslide affecting pipelines, and flooded wellfieldsandstations. WhereJamaicaPublicServicebringsinpartialornationalshutdownsofthepowergrid,thenonlythose NWCsystemsthathavetheirownstandbygeneratorsorthosewhicharegravitydrivenarethemost likelytostayoperationalwiththepassingofatropicalstormorhurricane.Waterqualityinmanyofthe distribution systemscan also compromised, with a resultant threattopublichealth,aswellas having impactsonhouseholdbudgetswhereadditionalexpenditureonbottleddrinkingwatermayberequired. IrrigatedAgriculture IrrigationsystemsoperatedbytheNICarealsovulnerabletodamagebytropicalstormsandhurricanes. Forexample,NICinfrastructurewasaffectedbybothHurricanesDennisandEmilytothetuneof$30.4 million,suchasfloodingtopumpingstations;damagetoaccessroadsandstructures;depositionofsilt anddebrisonopencanals;dislocationtosectionsofpipeline;etc(PIOJ,2005a).
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Industry Productive sectors of the economy also suffer from the loss of water supply, either under drought conditions, which are more longer term in nature, or due to interruption in supply due to tropical storms/hurricanes.Thelatterareshorterindurationandmayonlylast12weeks.Forexample,13days afterthepassageofHurricaneEmily,approximately380NWCwatersystemsservingabout93percent ofcustomerswereoperating(PIOJ,2005). TheAquaticEnvironment ImpactsoftheexistingclimateandclimaticvariabilityonJamaicasaquaticenvironmentreflectboththe occurrence of climate events such as tropical storms and hurricanes and droughts as well as human activitiesthatincreasethesensitivityoftheenvironmentandthusvulnerabilityoftheenvironmentand peopletotheseclimaticevents. Examplesincludeinadequatesettlementpatternsandlandusepracticesthathavegreatlyalteredthe natural rainfallrunoff relationships so thathydrographstendto rise morequickly and flood flows are more frequent. Accelerated erosion accompanies the rapid runoff as natural protective resources become increasingly degraded. Settlement also occurs in hazard prone solution basins and floodways whichareoftencompromisedintheirabilitytodischargefloodwatersbecauseofblockedsinkholesor heavily silted channels. Examples of these poor land use and settlement activities are presented in Figure 4.11. Countering these practices and activities is one of the main aims of the GEFfunded Integrating Watershed and Coastal Areas Management (IWCAM) project, which ran at the implementation stage from 2005 to 2010 and is also seen as being important to the Forestry DepartmentthroughtheimplementationoftheNationalForestryPlan. Figure4.11:ExamplesofPoorLandusePracticeandSettlementActivitiesinJamaica The occurrence of tropical storms and hurricanes can have a range of impacts on the aquatic environment. With the factors referred to above, these impacts are directly felt by sectors of the Jamaicanpopulation.ExamplesofthesearesummarisedinTable4.16andillustratedinFigure4.12. ImpactsoftheexistingclimateandclimaticvariabilityonJamaicasaquaticenvironmentreflectboththe occurrence of climate events such as tropical storms and hurricanes and droughts as well as human activitiesthatincreasethesensitivityoftheenvironmentandthusvulnerabilityoftheenvironmentand peopletotheseclimaticevents. Table4.16:ExamplesofImpactsfromTropicalStorms/HurricanesontheAquaticEnvironment Attribute Impact Examples Rivers/ Changesinrivercourse DuringHurricaneIvan,riverbankerosionandcollapsewas surface Sediment erosion and particularly marked in the Hope River Valley in Kingston water where extensive settlements (legal and squatter) occupy deposition the banks and terraces of the river in northeastern St Andrew Groundwater Groundwaterflooding Widespreadgroundwaterflooding,includingproperties,at ContentinManchesterin2002 Water Destruction of sewage treatment facilities at Yallahs Increasedturbidity quality following Hurricanes Dennis & Emily, with raw sewage Pollution enteringYallahsRiver. 292
Figure4.12:ExamplesofTropicalStorm/HurricaneImpactsontheJamaicanAquaticEnvironment
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4.3.5 AnalysisOfFutureClimateRisksForJamaicanWaterResources Theresultsofanalysislookingat1995waterresourcesavailabilityversusdemandsituationonabasinby basinbasiswaspresentedinTable4.14.Theapproachadoptedinthisrelativelysimpleanalysisforms thebasisofassessingthepotentialimpactofclimatechangeonthesebalancesandfromtherelooking atpotentialdemandsidesolutionstoaddressanyincreaseindeficitsthatcanbeattributedtoclimate change.TheproposedmethodologyisoutlinedinFigures4.13ato4.13c. 294
Figure4.13aoutlinesthefirststageintheanalysis,whichusestheexistingbasin(andformoredetail, MWU)spreadsheetmodelstoassessthesupplydemandsituationunderexistingclimatewithexisting and future demand estimates. This allows the tracking of the change in the supply demand situation from,asanexample,asituationofsurplustodeficitasprojecteddemandsincreaseinthefuture. Figure4.13a:AssessmentofExistingClimateSupplyDemandBalances ExistingClimate (Precipitationand PEt)
Existingyield&demand Demand
WRAWMUWater BalanceSpreadsheet Models
AvailableYield
Surplus
Deficit
InFigure4.13b,thesameBasin/WMUwaterbalancespreadsheetsaretakenforward,buttheinputsare futureclimateestimates(expressedas%changesinprecipitation),fortheselectedtimeperiods(2030, 2050,or2080,forexample)andscenarioofinterest,withassociatedestimatesofwaterdemandeither assumed unchanged or revised across the MWU and sectors of interest for the same time slices and under the same scenarios. Note that for these estimates of scenario changes in water resources availability,itisassumedthattheinternalrelationshipsbetween,forexample,rainfallandevaporation, aswellasnetrainfallandsurfacewaterrunoffremainunchanged. Whereitisassumeddemandsare unchangedunderfutureclimate,thentheimpact of theanalysis is likely to lead to a reduction in potentially available water resources, and the bringing forward of the tippingpointofmovingfromasituationofsurplustodeficit.Whereitisadditionallyestimatedthat demands are likely to increase under this scenario, then this tipping point will move even further forward.
Existing&Future Demands(under currentclimate)
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Figure4.13b:AssessmentofFutureClimateSupplyDemandBalances
Notethatatthisstage,noadaptationmeasuresareincluded.Thisisthenextstageintheanalysis,as representedbyFigure4.13c.However,giventhatthebalancesarebasedopotentiallyavailablewater resourcesanddonotincludetheengineeringinterventionsandassetsthatbringwaterfromthesources to the users, only demand side measures at the WMU scale can be explored here. This could include looking at the reduction in demands from improved irrigation efficiency, both in delivery as well as applicationonfields,andtheirimpactonreducingdeficitsandMWUbalances. However,furtherdevelopmentonthesupplyoptionscouldbeexploredinthisframework.Forexample, it is possible to look in more detail at water supply zones within each MWU and assess their (engineering)performanceagainstexistingdemand.Inthisway,itwouldbepossibletoincludesupply side factors within the supplydemand balance, taking these forward to look at the balances under climate change, and in doing so provide a framework to introduce possible engineering and other improvementstoaddressreducedsurplusordeficitsunderclimatechangescenarios. This approach only focuses on climate change and changes to annual average conditions. Impacts of changes to climatic variability cannot be assessed using this approach. For example, investigating the impacts of changes to drought frequency and severity on water resources availability and delivery to users can only be discussed in a qualitative manner at this time until more complex modelling approachesaredeveloped. Nevertheless, with knowledge of the locations of existing water supply schemes reliant on springs or runofriver sources, some preliminary assessment of those communities still most at risk from both existing and future climatic variability can be made, and measures developed to address and reduce theserisks. 296
Figure4.13c:AssessmentofFutureClimatewithAdaptationSupplyDemandBalances
WMUWaterAvailabilityDemandBalancesunderClimateChange The methodology presented above is based on the availability of MWU water balance spreadsheet models associated with the 2008 Water Resources Development Master Plan Update. These are expected to provide a much more detailed basis and analysis of the supply demand situation than currently available from the 1990 Water Resources Development Master Plan. Therefore, the results presentedhereareatthebasinscaleandarebasedondatapresentedinthe1990MasterPlanaswell as US Army Corps of Engineers (2001). As noted above, in developing these water supplydemand balances, derived relationships from the 10 basins from the 1990 Master Plan between rainfall and evapotranspiration, and net rainfall and annual runoff and 90 percentile flows are assumed to be unchangedindevelopingthewatersupplyestimatesofpotentiallyavailablewaterresources. Usingthisapproach,waterresourceavailabilityversusdemandestimatesforthethreecriticalbasinsof Kingston,RioCobre,andRioMinhoarepresentedinTable4.17forthe2015,2030and2050.Notethat demand estimates for 2015 have been assumedto applyto 2030 and2050, and that imports into the basinsarealsoassumedtoremainunchangedthroughtheseperiods.Estimatedpercentagechangesin rainfallfromthepooledglobalclimatemodellingresultswereused,givingreductionsinannualaverage rainfallof0.8percentby2015,2.2percentby2030and5.9percentby2050. TheresultspresentedinTable4.17showtheKingstonBasinmovingfromasurplusof39.0Mm3/yrfor the 1990s to a small deficit of 2.3 Mm3/yr by 2015. Beyond this period it is difficult to estimate, as demandsareassumedunchangedfor2030and2050,asaretheimportstothebasin.FortheRioCobre, thereisanestimatedsurplusin1990of130.3Mm3/yrbecomingadeficitbetween1995and2015,with anestimatedmagnitudeof32.5Mm3/yrby2050.InthecaseoftheRioMinho,thetrendissomewhat 297
different,asestimatesforthe1995situationshowanincreasingsurplus,whileestimatesfor2015and beyond indicate the presence of an increasing deficit. This indicates some inconsistencies in the estimatesforthisbasinbetweenthetwosourcesusedtoderivethistable. Table4.17: EstimatedWaterResourcesAvailabilityDemandBalancesfortheKingston,RioCobre andRioMinhoBasins(Mm3/yr) Basin Period 1990 1995 2015 2030 2050 Kingston TotalAvailableResources 46.0 46.0 45.7 45.2 43.8 Import 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 Demand 74.0 90.0 115 115 115 Balance 39.0 23.0 2.3 2.8 4.2 RioCobre TotalAvailableResources 435.3 435.3 433.0 428.8 417.5 Import 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Demand 305 397 450 450 450 Balance 130.3 38.3 17.0 21.2 32.5 RioMinho TotalAvailableResources 486.3 486.3 483.0 477.0 460.8 Import 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.0 Demand 368 311 632 632 632 Balance 127.3 184.3 140.0 146.0 162.2
Reference:UndergroundWaterAuthority(1990),USArmyCorpEngineers(2001)
For the Kingston Basin, the results perhaps show an overly optimistic situation, given the assumed continuingsupplyofwaterfromotherbasins.OneofthemainsourcesofthisimportistheRioCobre basin,whichasshown,isprojectedtobemovingintoadeficitsituationwhichwillresultinincreasing competitionforwaterresources.Therefore,itisimportantthattheKingstonBasinseekstoreduceits relianceontheseexistingimportsandeitherdevelopnewresources/importsfromneighbouringbasins orintroducesignificanteffortstoaddresstheprojectedgrowingdemands. This includes measures within the domestic, industrial and commercial sectors to reduce per capita wateruse,aswellastakingaproactivestancetoreduceunaccountedforwater(amajorcomponentof which is leakage). As commented earlier, the NWC is adopting such measures islandwide with a meteringprogramme,aswellastheintroductionofmeasurestoaddressunaccountedforwater. For the Rio Cobre, the demands are mainly agricultural. At the time these demand estimates were prepared, the area under sugar cane cultivation was significantly larger, and it is very likely that with both this decline and the recent introduction of more efficient irrigation methods that the demand estimates for this basin will be very much reduced. However, it is important to note that the introductionofmoreefficientirrigationmethods mayleadtoareductioninirrigation basedrecharge andthereforeareductionintotalavailableresources.Although,demandsaremainlyfromagriculture, nonagricultural demandsare likely to increaseespeciallyin thesouthernpartofthe basinassociated withnewhighwaydevelopmentandthezoningoflandeithersideofthehighwayfordevelopment.For the Rio Minho, the situation is comparable, with agricultural remaining the main sector for water demands,butwithanincreasingurbanpublicwatersupplydemandfromnewgrowth. WithinthecontextoftheWaterResourcesDevelopmentMasterPlanUpdateof2008,thisanalysiswill requirerevisiononabasinandWMUscale.Withtheexpectedadvancesinbothresourceanddemand 298
estimates, this will allow a more thorough basis on which to develop, investigate and assess the feasibilityofadoptingWMUwidedemandsidemeasurestocounterbothexistingandprojecteddeficits underclimatechange.Thiswillsupporttherequiredanalysisthatisalsoneededtoinvestigatesupply sidemeasures. 4.3.6 ImpactsonWaterResourcesfromIncreasedClimateVariability As well as the likely changes to average climatic conditions by 2050, the projections also indicate increasedclimaticvariability.Someofthefeaturesofthisincreasedvariabilityby2050include: Lengthoftherainyseasondownby78percent; Lengthofthedryseasonupby68percent; Increasedfrequencyofintenserainsprojectedtoincrease20percent; Strongesthurricanesmoreintense,increasingdisasterlosses. Thus,theclimateprojectionsareindicatingageneralincreaseinthefrequencyofextremeeventssuch asdroughts,floodsandincreasedintensityofheavyrainevents. Thisincreasedclimatevariabilityislikelytohaveanumberofimpactsonwatersupply: 1. Increasing length of dry season will increase the vulnerability of those communities who are suppliedbysinglespringorriversources.Lowerannualaveragerainfalllinkedwithalongerdry seasonislikelytoreducethesafeyieldfromthesesources. 2. Increasedfrequencyofintenserainswillhaveanimpactonwatersupply,astheserainsarelikely toresultinwatershedflowsassociatedwithhighsedimentloads.Increasedsedimentloadswill place increased requirements on water treatment facilities to treat water to an adequate standardbeforeenteringsupply.Therefore,upgradingoftreatmentfacilitiesmayberequired, aswellastheneedtointroducehighercosttreatmentprocesses(capitalinvestmentwithhigher operatingcosts). 3. Changes in the climate regime are likely to impact the hydrological regimes across basins, including impacts on groundwater recharge. On a long term annual average basis, decreased rainfallwithincreasedtemperaturesandevapotranspirationwillreducepotentialgroundwater recharge. It is also the case that if the rainfall that does occur is concentrated in a smaller numberofevents,thenagreaterproportionofthismaynotbeavailableforrecharge,butwill be taken up to address increased soil moisture deficits, as well as leading to the greater proportionofdirectrunoff.Furtherwatershedbasedhydrologicalstudiesarerequiredtoassess the impacts of climate change on Jamaican basin hydrological / hydrogeological regimes and waterbalances. 4. Theprojectedincreasedintensityofhurricaneswillincreasethepotentiallossesofinfrastructure withthewatersector,aswellasrevenueaftertheeventandduringtherecoveryperiod.There arealsowiderwatershedandcatchmentmanagementissuesassociatedwithincreasedclimate variability.Asnotedabove,increasedfrequencyofmoreintenserainfalleventshasanimpact on sediment erosion, movement and transport within basin river systems. Poor land use and agricultural practices can increase the vulnerability of watershed slopes to soil erosion and sedimenttransport. 299
Therefore, it is important that the work within the IWCAM project is developed to identify best management practices in these areas and methods and models of transfer of these best practices to otherbasinswithinJamaica. VulnerabilitytoSeaLevelRise Coastal aquifers remain a significant source of water supply for both the agricultural and non agriculturalsectors,especiallyintheRioCobreandRioMinhoBasins.Groundwaterwasinthepastan important source of water supply in the Kingston Basin, but over abstraction resulted in problems of saline intrusion. Water quality problems were compounded in the Kingston Basin by sewage contaminationoftheaquifers. TheprojectedincreasesinsealevelwithintheCaribbeaningeneralandaroundthecoastsofJamaicain particularvariesfrom0.17mto0.24mby2050(IPCC,2007).Others(Rahmstorf,2007)havegivenhigher magnitudesof0.25mto0.36magainst1990sealevel.GiventhecoastallocationofmanyofJamaicas wells used for agriculture, public water supply and industry, such increases in sea level increase the potentialriskofsalineintrusionintothecoastalaquifers.Thereisapasthistoryofpoorwaterresources management in these coastal aquifers, with the abandonment of wells for public water supply, for exampleinthealluvialaquiferofthelowerRioCobrebasin. The Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change Programme (MACC) has provided funding for the implementationofapilotvulnerabilityandcapacityassessmentprojectinthewatersectorinJamaica. TheVerePlainsofsouthernClarendonwasselectedasthestudyarea(Haiduk,pers.comm.2008).The objectivesofthestudyaretoidentify: 1. How a predicted sea level rise of 0.5m to 1m would move the saline front inland and change groundwaterquality; 2. Theresponsestrategiesincludingpolicyinterventionthatwouldberequiredtominimizeeffect ifany;and 3. TherequirementsformonitoringrainfallintensityinsouthClarendon. The project area is illustrated in Figure 4.14 and shows the locations of pumping wells in both the limestone and alluvial aquifers within the plains. Within the project area, wells tapping the southern section of the limestone aquifer have been abandoned due to high salinity, and there remain wells within this part of the project area with salinity levels exceeding the WHO aesthetic guidelines concentrationsforsodiumandchloride. Workonthisproject hadstalleddueto technical constraints,butwas tobecompletedby theend of 2008. The delay was unfortunate, as the findings of this project would have provided significant and usefulinformationontherisksandvulnerabilitytogroundwaterresourcesinJamaicafromsealevelrise and brought forward technical and policy recommendations to develop adaptation strategies and programmestoaddress,manage,andreducevulnerabilityforinclusionwithinthisreport.
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Figure4.14:MACCVulnerabilityandCapacityAssessmentProjectArea
Impacts on river low flows from climate change and increased climate variability can be inferred in a preliminary quantitative and qualitative manner. With respect to impacts from climate change and mean climatic conditions, some preliminary results are presented in Table 4.18 looking at potential futurechangestothe90percentilelowflow(Q90),expressedasapercentageofexistingmeanannual flowforeachbasin.Theseresultsarebasedonthebasinwatersupplydemandbalancecalculationsthat weresummarizedinTable4.14.HerethesameinternalrelationshipsbetweennetrainfallandQ90were appliedtolookatestimatedchangesinQ90fromtheexistingvaluesthroughto2015,2030and2050 under the same changes in annual average rainfall from the climate modelling studies, and as stated earlier, are subject to revision with the publication of the updated Water Resources Development MasterPlanin2008. All basins show a decline in the Q90 flow expressed as a percentage of existing mean annual runoff, exceptfortheCabaritaRiverwhichalreadyhasazeroQ90value.Thisisexpectedgiventheestimated decline in mean annual rainfall from the climate modelling results, and the simple relationships developed between net rainfall and Q90. Nevertheless, given both the reduction from the climate modelsinmeanannualrainfall,andalsoconsistentresultsshowingadeclineinrainfallinthemonthsof JuneJulyAugust,changesinlowflowregimesforJamaicanriversunderclimatechangeandincreased variabilityaretobeexpected.
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Table4.18:EstimatedChangesinBasinQ90Flows,asPercentageofExistingMeanAnnualFlow Basin 1990 2015 2030 2050 IBlueMountain(South) 17.1% 16.8% 16.4% 15.4% IIKingston 12.3% 12.2% 12.0% 11.4% IIIRioCobre 8.0% 7.9% 7.7% 7.3% IVRioMinho 14.2% 14.0% 13.7% 12.8% VBlackRiver 14.2% 14.0% 13.6% 12.7% VICaberitaRiver 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% VIIGreatRiver 13.9% 13.7% 13.4% 12.5% VIIIMarthaBraeRiver 7.2% 7.1% 6.9% 6.5% IXDryHarbourMountains 6.1% 6.0% 5.9% 5.5% XBlueMountainNorth 13.6% 13.4% 13.1% 12.1%
Source:WaterResourcesAuthority(WRA),1990
Reductionsinlowflowsinariversystem,asshowninTable4.18,indicatetheplacingofadditionalstress ontheaquaticenvironment.Forexample,areductioninQ90flowsimpliesshallowerwaterdepthsand reducedstreamflowvelocities.Thismayreduceoxygenconcentrationsandraisewatertemperatures, resulting in stressbeing applied to aquatic animal species. Clearly these are preliminaryobservations, andfurtherstudiesarerequiredlookingatthepotentialtimingofstreamflowchanges(reductions)and vulnerablelifestagesofkeyaquaticspecies. 4.3.7ProposedElementsofanWaterResourcesAdaptationStrategyforJamaica Although it has been possible to present more quantitative findings related to the impacts of future climateriskstothewaterresourcessectorthantheagriculturesector,itisevidentthatmuchworkstill needstobedonetoprovideasoundertechnicalbasisforthedevelopmentoftherequiredadaptation strategyprojects,programmesandpoliciestoaddressinaproactivemannertheissuesidentifiedhere. The imminent publication of the update to the 1990 Water Resources Development Master Plan providesabasisforthiswork,aswillthecompletionoftheMACCVulnerabilityandCapacityAssessment project on the Vere Plains in southern Clarendon. Other ongoing projects will also provide positive contributions to this process, such as the IWCAM project implemented by NEPA and the National ForestryPlanimplementedbytheForestryDepartment. Anumberof keyrecommendationsonthewayforwardtoaddress issuesofclimatevulnerabilityand the development of adaptation projects, programmes and policy were developed as part of the V&A analysis.TheserecommendationswerepresentedatastakeholderworkshopinMarch2008forreview, comments, and ranking. The ranking was based on a simplified multicriteria analysis approach that includedconsiderationsofrelativecostofrecommendations,effectivenessofproposedsolutions,and technical/skills availability for implementing the recommendations, technology, and number of beneficiaries,politicalandsocialacceptability,environmentalimpact,andconsistencywithobjectivesof theNationalDevelopmentPlan. RecommendationsfortheWaterSector The adaptation recommendations for the water sector are presented in Table 4.19 including the rankingsfromtheMarch2008workshop.Arankingof1givesthemostpreferredoption. 302
Table4.19:ClimateChangeAdaptationRecommendationsfortheWaterSector
Recommendation FormalizelinkagesbetweenUWIClimate Groupandstakeholders Developappropriatenationalfloodrisk mappingtosupportemergency operationsandlanduseplanning Increase&maintaininvestmentin hydrologicalmonitoring&waterusewith nationaldatabase Leverageandcoordinateinternational fundingtomaximizebenefitswithinthe WaterSector Justification Fortheresultsfromclimatemodelingtobemostuseful forendusers,itisimportantthatthemodelers understandenduserneeds Thiswillresultinbetteridentificationofthose communitiesatriskfromfloodingandtoinformland usezoningandspatialplanning Thiswillresultinimproveddatacollectionandstorage onanationalscalewithoutmonitoringhowdowe knowwhatishappening? Significantinvestmentisrequiredinanumberofareas withinthesector.Ifmultilateralgrantaid&bilateral softloansaretobeusedtosupportthiswork,thenthe benefitsaccruedmustbemaximized,bothinoutputs andcapacitybuilding. Oneofthebenefitsofimprovedlandusemanagement practicesisprotectionofwaterresourcesquantities andquality Linkedwiththeaboveistheneedtodevelopa consistentsetofappropriatemodelingapproachesand tools. Improvedwateruseefficiencywillreducedemandson existingsourcesandinfrastructure,reducecostsand reducevulnerabilitytodrought. Therearecurrentlynostandardnationalapproaches. Withappropriatemethodsinplace,consistentregional andnationalplanningcantakeplaceunderachanging climate Responsibility UWIClimateGroup+stakeholders Workshop PooledRanking 1
WRA,LocalParishes,ODPEM,Red Cross Withinaregulatorybodye.g.WRA, butprovidingaccesstoall MinistriesofEnvironment&Health, WaterandHousing,ForeignAffairs andInternationalTrade,Financeand planning. NEPA,WRA,NWC,ForestryDept.
Support&expandfundingoftheIWCAM programmeandNationalForestryPlan Developappropriatemodelingtoolsto assiststrategicplanningofwater resourcestosupply Support&fundincreasedwateruse efficiencyacrossallwaterusesectors irrigation,domesticandindustrialusers Fundresearchintoadoptingwater resourcesandwatersupplyplanning methodsunderclimatechange
JointlyacrosstheWRA,NWCandNIC
NWC,NICandotherwaterproviders
JointlyacrosstheWRA,NWC,NIC& OUR
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Recommendation Investigateshiftingfocusfrom groundwatertosurfacewaterstoragefor watersupply. RemoveNWCfromresponsibilityof MinistryofWater&Housingandplace underalternativeMinisterialcontrol Mergegovernmentagenciesandbodies responsibleforlandandwaterprotection &managementintooneorganization underoneMinistryofGoJ.
Justification
Responsibility
Workshop PooledRanking
ReducerelianceonvulnerablecoastalaquifersandGW springsourcesintermsofqualityandquantity,with increaseduseofsurfacewaterreservoirstomaintain supplies. PotentialconflictofinterestwithWRAalsoreportingto thesameMinistry.Whendifficultregulatorydecisions aretobemade,thiswillremoveexistinggamekeeper /poacherperception. Jamaicaisthelandofwoodandwaterandshouldbe managedinthatmannerwithinacatchment/ watershedframework.Withdividedresponsibilities acrossGoJMinistries,regulation,protectionand adaptationcanbestrengthenedwithinoneAgency underoneMinistry.
JointlyacrosstheWRA,NEPA,NWC, NICandotherse.g.SCoJ
GoJministriesincludingWaterand Housing.
N/K
GoJincludingMinistriesof Environment&Health,Waterand Housing.
N/K
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Inadditiontothe11recommendationspresentedattheworkshop,oneworkshopbreakoutgroupalso includedthefollowingadditionaloptionsfortheirownconsideration: DevelopandimplementapubliceducationplanonWaterResourceandClimateChange; Put legislative framework in place to support individual storage (cistern) systems for property developments; Remove political interference from sciencebased decision making (i.e., minimize rights to appealdecisions). Theworkshopgroupsalsomadesuggestionswithrespecttotheoptionspresented.Theseincludedthe (re)establishmentoftheNationalClimateChangeCommitteetoprovidealinkingmechanismacrossall areaswithinthewatersectorandbeyond.Theneedforapubliceducationandawarenessprogramme wasalsoraisedasbeinganimportantpartoftheoveralladaptationresponsetotheissuesraisedbythe threats posed by climate change to Jamaica. The use of economic instruments (e.g., water tariffs) to modify behaviour and encourage water conservation was also proposed at the workshop. Other interesting topics were also raised related to natural dam producing processes in Jamaican rivers and theirpossibleuseasstorageforlocalwatersupply,withtheneedtomonitorthewaterqualityofany storedwatersanddesigningappropriatewatertreatmentplantstoensurethatawholesomesupplyis provided. ThehighestplacedrecommendationproposedformalizinglinkagesbetweentheUWIClimateGroupand stakeholders. This was followed by the development of flood risk mapping, and investment in hydrologicalmonitoring.Tworecommendationsrelatedtoinstitutional(andpolitical)reformwerenot assigned scores. Nonetheless, they deserve serious consideration as they seek to strengthen and co ordinate the institutional framework for the protection of Jamaicas water sector under both existing andfutureclimate. 4.3.8 ConstraintstotheWaterResourcesAssessment Much of the assessment for the water sector was qualitative in nature, although some quantitative analysis was presented on the impacts from the passage of tropical storms and hurricanes. A methodology was proposed that can be refined and developed to identify WMUs and water supply zones within the WMUs that are currently vulnerable to water supplydemand deficits under average conditions, and which may become prone to deficits under future average climatic conditions. This methodology can also be developed further to investigate both potential supply and demand side measurestoaddressdeficits,whichwithoutlineengineeringcostscanbeusedtodevelopprogrammes ofmeasurestocounterthepresenceofthesedeficits. Therearealsoanumberofotherimportantinitiativesandprojectswhosefindingsandoutcomeswould havegreatlystrengthenedtheanalysesinthewatersector.Theseincluded: The2008updatetothe1990WaterResourcesDevelopmentMasterPlan; TheMACCfundedpilotVulnerabilityandCapacityAssessmentstudyinSouthernClarendonthat bringsclimatechange,sealevelrise,waterresources,andagriculturewithinasingleproject; TheMACCfundedprojectontheDevelopmentofaNationalWaterSectorAdaptationStrategy toAddressClimateChangeinJamaica; TheIWCAMprojectfocusingofwatershedandlandmanagementissues.
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Thefindingsandoutcomesfromtheseactivitieswerenotavailableatthetimeofpreparingthewater sectoranalysispresentedhere. 4.4 HumanHealth 4.4.1 MainCharacteristicsoftheHumanHealthSectorofJamaica PrimaryhealthcareinJamaicaisdeliveredthroughanestedsystemofTypeI(mainlyrural)toTypeV health centres, delivering progressively more comprehensive care. In 2002, there were 314 health centresintotal.Type1centresdelivermaternalandchildhealthservicesandarestaffedbymidwives andcommunityhealthaides.ItisnotuntilthelevelofType3thatafullrangeofpreventativeservicesis providedandadoctorisinattendanceonadailybasis.Type3centresarelocatedinurbanareas. TheMinistryofHealthoperates23hospitals17generaland6specialistswithacapacityofjustunder 5,000beds.Hospitalsarealsoclassifieddependingonthelevelofservicestheyprovide.ThreeTypeA andfourTypeBhospitalsarelocatedinurbancentres,withTypeBhospitalsservingasreferralstothe 10 Type C rural hospitals. Specialist hospitals provide care for specific populations (Ward and Grant, 2005). A mix of private sector institutions and individuals also deliver a range of health care services. Theyprovideinpatientcarefromsevensmallhospitalswith5percentoftheislandsbedcapacityand supplymostofthepharmaceuticalanddiagnosticservices. Improved access to primary health care in Jamaica has resulted in an increase in life expectancy in recent years. However, some of the gains are being reversed under the impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic,intentional,andunintentionalinjuries.Combinedlifeexpectancydeclinedfrom73.3percent in2001to70.7percentin2004(UNDP,2006).Thelifeexpectancyatbirthformenis69.1yearsandfor women72.5years.Thecrudedeathrateis6.4percentandinfantmortality15per1000livebirths. Table14.20showstheleadingcausesofhospitalizationanddeathinJamaicain2005. Hospitalisation Deaths Obstetrics Cerebrovasculardiseases AccidentsandInjuries Neoplasms Diseasesoftherespiratorysystem Diabetes Diseasesofthecirculatorysystem Diseasesoftherespiratorysystem Diseasesofthedigestivesystem Ischemicheartdisease Nutritionandendocrineconditions Trauma,homicides,injuries Diseasesofthegenitorurinarysystem HIV/AIDS Neoplasms Perinatalconditions Infectiousandparasiticdiseases Diseasesofthegenitourinarysystem Perinatalconditions Neuropsychiatricdiseases
Source:MinistryofHealth(2005a)
A decline in the population under the age of 15, together with increasing longevity, has resulted in a rapiddemographictransition.Thepopulationovertheageof60stoodat10percentinJamaicain2001 andthatovertheageof65at7.6percent.Thepercentageofwomenovertheageof60(10.1%)was slightly more than that of men (9.6%). However, while life expectancy for women is longer, health adjusted life expectancy (HALE) after the age of 60 indicates that older women spend more time in illness and with disabilities than men. Women are more likely to have vision impairments, much of 306
whichisdiabetesrelated.Whilesome15.2percentoftheelderlypopulationlivesalone,menaretwice aslikelytolivealonethanwomen(PAHO,2002).Butastheelderlypopulationgrows,theratioofthe elderly to those who could provide care increases and this puts a burden on carers. There are vulnerable segments of the population over the age of 60 and there is a need to mainstream this segment of the population into development policies. There is a need for more information on their conditionandtheirgeographicallocationfortheyareathighriskintimesofnaturaldisasters. Attheotherendofthespectrum,thepopulationagedlessthanfiveyearsformsabout10percentofthe population.Table4.6showsthecausesofdeathintheunderfiveagegroupinJamaicafrom200005 andunderscorestheimportanceofdiarrhoealdiseases.Mortalityinthisgroupis20per1000livebirths (WHO,2006). Table14.21:CausesofdeathintheunderfiveagegroupinJamaica(200005) Disease Percentage Neonatal(includesdiarrhoealdisease) 52 Diarrhoeal 10 HIV/AIDS 6 Pneumonia 9 Influenza 2 Others 21
Source:WorldHealthOrganization(2006)
The burden of rotavirus gastroenteritis in Jamaica is severe. Christie et al. (2006) reports that the rotavirusisthemajorcauseofdiarrhoeaintheagegroup0to5.Normallyoutbreaksoccurinthecooler months which are also drier and when water sources are compromised. In 2003, however, a large outbreak occurred in summer and affected children up to the age of eight. The outbreak was responsible for an increase in hospital admissions and deaths and was associated with flooding and faecalcontaminationcausedbyextremelyheavyrains.Twentyonechildrendiedin2003and24in2004 (Christie et. al.2006). The annual seasonal outbreaks continued with occasional summer peaks. For example,in2005,theyearinwhichtorrentialrainwascausedbytwoearlyhurricanesDennis,inJuly, andEmilyaweeklatertherewasasummerpeakindiarrhoealdiseasesalso.Thesehighrainfallevents havebeenafeatureofthedecadeandtheprojectionisthattheyarequitelikelytobeoneofthemost significantandimmediateconsequencesofclimatechangeintheCaribbean.Undersuchcircumstances itislikelythattheextraordinarymaybecometheordinary(UNDP/Harvard,2005). Healthprofessionalsarepinningtheirhopesonnewrotavirusvaccinesbutwhilemedicaltechnologyhas a role to play, more attention is also needed for community development and the provision of safe water supplies to increase the resilience of vulnerable sections of the population. Many have questionedtheeffectivenessofimprovedenvironmentalconditionsinthecontroloftherotavirussince children of higher socioeconomic status are also affected. There is a suggestion, however that the effectofsocioeconomicstatusismediatedbysanitaryconditions(Genseretal.,2006).Malnutritionis alsoanimportantriskfactorfordiarrhoealdiseasesandalthoughnationalrateshavedeclinedoverthe pasttwodecades(CFNI,2003);thesituationdiffersatthesubnationallevel.Theriskishighinsome ruralareas,amongtheunemployedandinpoorurbancommunitiesandresponsesmustbespecificto particularsettings.
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4.4.2
TheInstitutionalArrangementsfortheManagementoftheHealthSectorinJamaica
The adaptivecapacityofacountrytorespondtoclimatechangerelatedhealth impactsdependstoa largemeasureontheefficiencyofthehealthsystem.Until1997,healthcareinJamaicawasorganized, delivered,andcoordinatedcentrallybytheMinistryofHealthinKingston.UndertheNationalHealth Services Act of 1997, the functions of the Ministry were decentralized. Delivery was assigned to four regionalbodies,whilepolicy,planningandpurchasingfunctionswereretainedbytheHeadOffice.The objectiveoftheexercisewas,inpart,tomakethesystemmoresensitiveandresponsivetolocalneeds. TheSouthEasternRegionembracesKingston,StAndrew,St.CatherineandSt.Thomasandcomprises 47 percent of the population. The smallest region, with 14 percent of the population, is the North Eastern,comprisingthethreeparishesofPortland,StMary,andSt.Ann.TheWesternRegioncomprises the parishes of Hanover, Trelawny, St. James, and Westmoreland, with 17 percent of the population, whiletheSouthernRegion(StElizabeth,Manchester,andClarendon)accountsfor22percent. Decentralization of services were supposed to confer several benefits to the populations served greater sensitivity to local preferences, reduction in inequalities, cost containment in view of sharper targeting,greatercapacitytoinvolvelocalcommunity.Anevaluationoftheimpactofdecentralization in Jamaica concluded that the actual benefits were less than expected and there were minimal improvementinservicedeliveryorinthehealthofthepopulationofthedistricts(PAHO,2007). A major problem appears to be underfinancing. The activities of the region are financed by a grant fromthegovernmentand,untilitsrecentremoval,userfees.Despiteincreasesinthegrant,thereisa resourcegap.InMarch2004,thedebtoftheRegionalHealthAuthoritieswasJ$3.8b(Baileyetal,2007). This has affected the ability of the regions to attract trained technical personnel. In 2001, the staff vacancy rate for medical technologists was 69 percent, and the percentages for registered nurses, pharmacistsandpublichealthinspectorswere55,51and29respectively(Baileyetal,.2007). Deficiencieshavealsobeenidentifiedintheareasoftrainingandresearch.TheMinistryofHealthhas encounteredproblemsinthediagnosisandtreatmentofdenguehaemorrhagicfeverbothinthehealth centres and among private physicians. The problem is being addressed through staff training through theMedicalAssociationofJamaicaaswellasdirectcontactwithprivatephysicians(Huntley,2008). However,inacontentiousleaguetablewhichrankedthehealthsystemof191countriesonthebasisof theirabilitytouseresourcesefficiently,Jamaicawasgiveneighthplace;aboveJapan(9th),theUnited Kingdom (24th) and the USA (72nd) (WHO, 2000b). The World Health Organization found that many countries performed at just 20 percent of what they could achieve while others performed at 99 percent.WHOrecommendedfundingthroughprepaymentschemessuchassocialsecurity,taxesand insurance, rather than out of pocket. Jamaica is, therefore, making best use of limited resources but betterfundingwillbenecessarytoimprovetheresponsestoimpendingchanges. NationalHealthPolicy(200615)&StrategicPlan(200610) IntheNationalHealthPolicy(200615)andStrategicPlan(200610),theMinistryofHealthoutlinedthe policycontextinwhichprioritiesforhealthweredeveloped(MOH,2005).TheMillenniumDevelopment Goalsweretakenintoaccount,withplanstotargetthehealthofmothersandtheirchildren,infectious diseasesespeciallyHIV/AIDSandmalaria,waterandsanitation,aswellasaccesstoessentialdrugs. 308
Thenationalcontextwasalsotakenintoconsideration,i.e.,thephysiographic,demographic,economic, andsocialrealitiesofthecountry.However,despiteaccidentsandinjuriesbeingtheleadingcausesof morbidity and mortality, and diabetes and hypertension increasing causes of concern, the outcome indicators of the plans are heavily weighted in favour of risk/lifestyle behaviours drug use, sexual practices,roadsafety,andobesity. Thepossibleimpactofclimatechangeonhealthisnotspecificallymentioned.However,surveillanceof internationallynotifiablenationallymonitorednewlyemergingandreemergingdiseasesarementioned asgoals.Emergingandreemergingdiseasesareconsideredaconsequenceoftheecologicalchanges associatedwithclimatechangeandtheunsustainableuseofresources.Sothereissomerecognitionin thePlan,thoughnotexplicit,ofthelikelyeffectsofclimatechange. Moreover, in response to the threat of emerging and reemerging diseases as well as the anticipated changes in vector borne diseases, the Ministry of Healthprepared a national vector controlplan with the goal of re establishing a Vector Control Unit in the Ministry (Huntley, 2008). The plan makes proposalsforfinancingintheareasofstaffing,procurementofsupplies,adaptationofnewtechnologies and strategies for vector control, the strengthening of surveillance systems, and the improvement of intersectoral,interagencycapacitiesandresearch. Staffshortagesareaffectingthevectorcontrolprogrammesinceparishesarenotadequatelystaffedto conduct surveillance at the levels required and with the projected increase in abundance (Huntley, 2008). Thereissome surveillance of highriskcommunitiesand atports ofentry,howeversignificant percentageofthesurveillanceequipmentwasnonfunctional(PAHO,2001).Thevirologylaboratoryis underequipped.TheMinistryofHealthhasalsoidentifiedaneedforoperationalresearchintothebest methodofcontrolforthelocalpopulationoftheAedesaegyptimosquitoandothervectors. Otherrelevantorganizations Prevention,preparednessandenhancedresponsetothehealththreatsposedbyclimatechangerequire interagencyandintersectoralcooperation.Already,somekeyagenciesinJamaicaareworkingtogether onhealthissues,althoughmorefocusedondisasterrelatedhealthconcerns. TheNationalEnvironmentPlanningAgencyisanagencyoftheMinistryofHealthandtheEnvironment. Itsmissionistopromotesustainabledevelopmentbyensuringprotectionoftheenvironment. The Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management has a mandate to develop and administerdisasterpreparednesspoliciesandtomanageallaspectsofdisastermitigation.Itdoessoby working in partnership with other agencies, an approach which allows it to influence national risk reduction(HeslopThomasetal,2008).Insofarasclimatechangeisconcerned,sealevelriseandthe inundation of coastal areas, with resulting population displacement, are the Offices areas of greatest concern.Healthisnotseenasapartoftheirmandate,perse(HeslopThomasetal.,2008). The Meteorological Service provides warnings and advice on hazardous weather phenomena. In an interview,arepresentativesawtheirroleasfarasclimatechangewasconcernedintermsofconducting researchonadaptationforthosesectorsthatmaybeaffectedbythephenomenon,andcommunicating the information both to the stakeholders and the public (HeslopThomas et al, 2008). There was full appreciation of the health implications of climate change those related to heat stress, respiratory diseasesaswellastheroleofhighertemperaturesinthetransmissionofvectorbornediseases. 309
TheNationalWaterCommissionhasamandatetoprovidepotablewaterandwastewaterservicesto Jamaican communities except those small rural communities that are the responsibility of the parish councils.Itisalsoresponsibleforurbanseweragesystems.TheworkoftheCommissionisbackedupby awellestablishedlegal framework and ithasafairlysound reputationformonitoringthequalityand levelsofgroundwaterwhichaccountsfor84percentofavailablewaterand92percentofallwaterused in Jamaica (Karanjac, 2005). However, PAHO has raised concerns about the ratio of sampling to populationservedandthedifferentstandardsusedbydifferentparishes(PAHO,2004).Someproblems stem from limited financial resources. Infrastructure has failed to keep pace with population growth andsomepipesaremorethan60yearsoldwithissuesofrust,leakage,andblockages(Neufville,2000). Expertssaythatiftheentirecitywereconnectedtoaworkingandenvironmentallyfriendlysewerage system,watersourceswouldbeprotectedandlargeamountsofwaterinaquifersthatarepollutedat presentwouldberecovered.Atthemomentonly24percentofhouseholdsareconnectedtosewerage systems(Neufville,2000). TheWaterResourcesAuthorityisresponsiblefortheregulation,conservationandmanagementofthe waterresourcesoftheisland,andprovidestechnicaladvicetothegovernmentanditsagencies.The Water Resources Development Master Plan, updated in 2008, provides a complete inventory of the waterresources,includingthelevelofavailabilityanddemand(JamaicaObserver,August11,2008). The Forestry Department conserves and protects the islands forests, manages forested watersheds, protected lands and forested lands and gives advice to private land owners on the management of privateforests.Theyalsodevelopprogrammesforsoilconservation.Theirmandatecoversaresource thatisvitaltothedevelopmentofsustainablewatersupplies. MostoftheseagenciesalreadyworktogetheronsubcommitteesoftheNationalDisasterCommittee which, under the National Disaster Action Plan, is responsible for disaster policy. A flood warning system involving the Meteorological Office, the Water Resources Authority and Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) exists and this association has allowed the incorporation of flood warnings into community preparedness activities. There is an automatic (real time) warning system and community operated warning systems covering vulnerable communities. InformationisrelayedtoODPEMwhenacriticallevelisreachedandresponseteamsatthecommunity levelmakedecisionsastowhetherevacuationtoemergencysheltersisnecessary. In addition, a great deal of research has been done in the area of hazard risk assessment in Jamaica. Flood plain maps exist for river systems and multihazard assessments for the Kingston Metropolitan Area have been undertaken. These document vulnerability to seismic events, landslides, and coastal storm surges (Ahmad and McCalpin, 1999). In addition, the Caribbean Disaster Mitigation Project undertook a study to estimate storm effects in the Caribbean Basin and the storm hazard maps of Jamaica focused on key areas of vulnerability Montego Bay, where there is intense shoreline developmentassociatedwiththetouristindustry;Kingston,thecapitalandmajorport;PortEsquivel,an oil terminus on a shallow bay; and Rocky Point, a railway and bauxite terminal on a shallow bay (CDMP/OAS,2000). Therearealsointernationalorganizationsinvolvedinemergencypreparednessandresponse.UNICEF, for example, in response to its mandate to protect disadvantaged children supports the activities of ODPEM in the wake of disasters, supplying food, shelter and emergency kits. As a result, there is a relatively high level of preparedness for disasters. IADB/ECLAC (2007) has pointed to several areas 310
where improvements are necessary community preparedness, increase in emergency stocks, emergency water supplies, and improvement in community shelters. But as important as these initiativesmaybe,theycoverjustoneaspectofthepreparednessandtheyarenotsufficientlyfocused onpeopleandthehealthimpactsofthehazard.Asimilarstructurebutonethatismoreinclusive,that iscapableofprovidingaresponsetothebroaderhealthimplicationsofclimatechangeisnecessary. 4.4.3 VulnerabilityoftheHealthSectorinJamaicatoClimateChange Generaloverviewoftheimpactsofclimatechangeonhealth Acomprehensivereviewoftheissuesrelatedtoclimatechangeimpactsonhealthhasbeenproducedin abookcalledClimateChangeandHealth:RisksandResponsebyMcMichaeletal.(2003).Thevarious pathwaysbywhichclimatechangecanimpactonhumanhealtharecomplex,asshowninFigure4.15. Figure4.15: PathwaysbyWhichClimateChangeAffectsHumanHealth,includingLocalModulating InfluencesandtheFeedbackInfluenceofAdaptationMeasures
Source:McMichaeletal.2003,adaptedfrom.Patzetal,2000
Thedirectimpactsonhealtharemainlythoseduetochangesinexposuretoweatherextremes.These include extremes in temperature (heat waves and winter cold in temperate regions), extremes in precipitation (floods and droughts), and extremes in wind (cyclones and storm surges). Increased productionofcertainairpollutantsandaeroallergens(sporesandmoulds)mayalsobedirectlylinkedto the weather. The impacts of climate change will depend on the extent of change in the frequency, intensityandlocationofextremeweathereventsduetoclimatechange,whichremainsuncertain. 311
Climatechange,actingvialessdirectmechanisms,couldalsoaffectthetransmissionofmanyinfectious diseases (especially water, food, vectorborne, and rodentborne diseases) and regional food productivity (especially cereal grains). In the longer term, these indirect impacts are likely to have greatermagnitude than themoredirect(McMichaeletal.,2001,and Epstein, 1999). Other illnesses, suchasmentalstress,couldalsobeindirectlybeimpactedbyclimatechange. Climatechangeisonlyoneofseveralimportantfactorsinfluencingtheincidenceofinfectiousdiseases. Other important considerations include human migration and transportation; drug resistance and nutrition;environmentalinfluencessuchasdeforestation;agriculturaldevelopment;waterprojects;and urbanization. In this era of global development and landuse change, it is highly unlikely that climatic changesexertanisolatedeffectondisease.Rather,theeffectislikelydependentontheextenttowhich humanscopewithorcounterthetrendsofotherdiseasemodifyinginfluences.Whilerecognizingthe important independent role of these nonclimatic factors, the focus of this section is to examine the extenttowhichtheymaycompoundtheeffectsofclimaticconditionsondiseaseoutcomes. VulnerabilityoftheHealthSectorinJamaicaandtheCaribbeantoClimateChange Jamaicaisatthepointintheepidemiologicaltransitioninwhich,whilenoncommunicablediseasesare theleadingcausesofdeath,thehealthsystemmuststillcopewithinfectiousandparasiticdiseasesas wellasrisinglevelsofHIV/AIDSandintentionalandunintentionalinjuries.Table4.22showsthevarying sensitivitytoclimatechangestothecommunicablediseasesthatcanaffecttheJamaicanpopulation. Table4.22:SensitivityofCommunicableDiseasestoClimateChangeinJamaica Veryweak Somesensitivity Moderate Strong Verystrong Intestinalnematodes Influenza Meningococcal Dengue Malaria Diarrhoealdiseases meningitis
Source:WorldHealthOrganization(2000a)
WithrespecttotheleadingcausesofdeathinJamaica(Table4.20),heatstressincreasessusceptibleto ahighincidenceofcerebrovasculardiseases,butthisisconsideredtobeofgreaterimportanceincold thaninhotcountries.Thisproblem,however,couldbeexacerbatedbytheconstructionmaterialused and the design of housing. Buildings need to be designed to reduce heat stress and vectorborne diseases. OftherespiratoryconditionsprevalentinJamaica,asthmaisacauseforconcernwithrespecttoclimate change. Rising carbon dioxide levels could increase allergenic plant pollens. Increasing quantities of dust clouds containing minute particles and microbes are blown into the Caribbean from the Sahel regionofAfrica.TheAfrican/Americanatmosphericsystemisalongstandingphenomenon.However, human activity in the expanding desert region of Africa has intensified the problem and dust concentrations in the Caribbean are correlated with rainfall deficits inthe Sahel. Climate change and increasingdroughtcouldthereforehaveasignificanteffectontheconcentrationofdust.Researchersin Trinidad and Tobago report a correlation between paediatric admissions for asthma and increasing Saharandustcover(Gyan,etal.,2005.SeealsoMcCarthy,2001).Asthmarelatedvisitstohealthcare institutionsinJamaicacomprised6.3percentofallvisitsandaprevalencestudyisbeingconductedto providecrucialdataonitsprevalence(JamaicaObserver,December1,2006). 312
Various aspects of community health are also vulnerable to climate change impacts, including sanitation,watersupplies,anddisasterresponses. TheNationalWaterCommissionestimatesthatabout75percentJamaicanhouseholdshaveaccessto pipedwaterintheirhomesand11percentobtainwaterbyothermeans,includingstandpipes.Inother words, about 85 percent of the population has access to a piped supply. Roughly 20,000 households havenoexcretadisposalfacilities(PAHO,2007).Manyofthesehouseholdsareininformalsettlements. Thishasimplicationsforthespreadofinfectiousandwaterbornediseases(wherewatersuppliesare contaminated). As in other islands in the Caribbean covered by limestone formations, the ground water is very vulnerable to contamination. Karanjac (2005) has listed several threats, some of which will be intensifiedwithclimatechangeandhavepotentialeffects.Sealevelintrusionsarealreadyaffectingthe aquifersalongthesouthcoastofJamaicaandsomewellshavehadtobeabandoned.Thethinlayersof soil overlying the white limestone formations allow contamination by industrial and agricultural processes,aswellasbyseptictanksandsoakawaysewagedisposalsystems.Thekarstifiednatureof therocksallowscontaminantstomovelongdistancesfromthepointoforigin.Alluvialaquifersarealso contaminated.Thishasimplicationsforthespreadofwaterbornediseases. Added to considerations of water safety are those relating to sufficiency under climate change? The projectionsindicateincreasedfrequencyofdroughts.Theproblemsexperiencedbycommunitiesthat lacksurfacewaterstorageandaredependentonspringsandriverssuchasSt.MaryandClarendon,for example, could become increasingly vulnerable to diseases caused by reduced effluent dilution and increased pathogen loading. Despite inter catchment transfers, the large urban population in the Kingston Metropolitan Area (KMA), already subject to periodic rationing, is also likely to experience shortageinthesupply. Moreover, ensuring the safety of water and sanitation systems and water sufficiency does not guaranteeprotectionagainstnaturaldisasters.Thedamagetoestablishedinfrastructureinhurricanes orfloodscanhaveadversehealthconsequences.Watersuppliesareinterruptedandcommunitiesmay resorttounsafesupplies.Treatmentplantsmaysufferdamageormaybeputoutofoperationbecause oftheinterruptionofelectricity. Outbreaks of typhoid in 1989 and 1990 were associated with the destruction of pit latrines following HurricaneGilbertinendemicpocketsinthewestoftheisland,aswellasproblemsofaccesstoclean water and waste disposal facilities in the hurricane shelters provided for the poor. Conditions in the shelters give cause for grave concern. Shelter managers must cope with outbreaks of diarrhoeal diseases, the injuries and lacerations resulting from flying and broken objects, preexisting conditions suchasthefootulcersofdiabeticpatientsunderveryunhygienicconditions.Nospecialprovisionsare made for the large number of children in shelters, who are exposed not only to diseases but to the dangers of a poorly supervised environment. Many of the buildings used are not intended for this purpose and attention must be paid to identifying shelters, upgrading facilities to meet the demands andensuringadequatesupervisionintimesofdisasters. Thereareimplicationsalsoforfoodsupplies.ByUNcriteria,Jamaicawith1,500m3/yrofwaterforeach inhabitant,iswaterstressed.Agricultureisaprimeuseroftheresourceandsalineintrusionhascaused thelossofagriculturallandalongthesouthcoast.Althoughthereductioninabstractionispushingback thesalinefront(Karanjak,2005),risingsealevelscouldreversethesegains. 313
Vulnerability is also affected by surveillance programmes and efforts at vector control. Disease surveillance in Jamaica has active and passive forms. Under the passive system, reports are received fromanumberofpublicandprivateprimarycarefacilitiesaswellashospitals,laboratoriesandselected hotels.Thisprovidescriticalinformationnecessaryforthemonitoringofcommunityhealthbutthere are obvious draw backs to this type of dependence. Epidemiological surveillance including entomologicalsurveillanceandthemonitoringofthetypesofbehavioursthatpromotetheproliferation of larval habitats are consideredprioritiesby the WHO. For example, in Jamaica, the major breeding groundformosquitoeshasbeenfoundtobethe40gallondrumsthatareusedtostorewater(Chadee et al, 2008). The promotion of behavioural change through the development of guidelines for sustainablepreventionandcontrolofvectorsarealsoWHOpriorities(HeslopThomas,etal.,2008). Jamaicas proximity to countries where malaria is endemic Haiti, Guyana, and Suriname geographically,butalsoeconomically,andwiththelegalandillegalmovementofpeopleamongthese countriesheightenstheriskofreintroductionofthedisease.Aftera40yearabsence,anoutbreakof malariaoccurredinDecember2006andaffectedanestimated400persons,mainlyindepressedareas oftheKingstonMetropolitanArea. Someofthegeographicfactorsaffectingvulnerabilityhavebeenreferredtotheislandslocationinthe path of Atlantic hurricanes and susceptibility to high rainfall events, storms and hurricanes. These events have underscored the vulnerability of those living in environmentally sensitive areas as they causedeathandthedislocationofpeopleandeconomicactivity.Coastalcommunitiesarenottheonly areas that are susceptible to these events. A combination of high precipitation, a small catchment, geology,andhumaninfluencecombinetomakemanyslopesintheeastofJamaicaunstable,creating landslides.Coastalareas,unstableslopes,rivercourses,especiallythosesupportingpoorcommunities, havebeenshowntobeextremelyvulnerabletolandslidesandtheravagesoffloodwaters 4.4.4 AnalysisOfFutureClimateRisksForHumanHealthinJamaica Inadditiontoaliteraturereviewofthemoregeneralimpactsonclimatechangeonhealthworldwide (McMichaeletal,2003),areviewwasconductedofresearchbeingdoneinEnglishspeakingCaribbean countries. It is acknowledged that useful work has been done in Cuba, especially in the area of mathematical modelling, however as yet these models have not been applied to the rest of the Caribbean.TwoprojectsbasedinJamaicathatfocusondenguefeverandleptospirosisaredescribed hereinsomedetail,followedbyabriefsummaryofotherclimatechangethreatstohumanhealthin Jamaica,includingotherrelevantresearchondiseasesandclimatevariability. DengueFever Since a 23C rise in temperature can lead to a threefold increase in dengue transmission, dengue epidemicswillbeadefiniteclimatichealththreatforJamaica.ItcanbeseenfromTable4.23thatbased onasimpleproportion;anestimatedfigureofapproximately60031DisabilityAdjustedLifeYears(DALYs) would be lost in Jamaica with a population of approximately 3 million. Since all four serotypes are present in the country, the chances of denguehemorrhagic fever (DHF) will be increased. Serious outbreaksofdengueepidemicsinJamaicawouldalsoharmthetouristindustryandthiscouldhavean
ThisvalueisveryuncertainsincethefiguresinTable4.23areroundedtothenearest100,000.Itshouldalsobe notedthattheDALYsgiveninTable4.23areconservativeandotheranalysesgivethreetimesthevalueslisted.
31
314
indirectimpactonhealthbecausetourismisimportantcontributiontotheeconomyandhelpstopayor healthservices.Thisthreatmaynotbediminishedbylessrainfallsincewaterisstored,especiallyin40 gallondrums,duringtimesofwatershortage,andthesecontainersarethemajorhabitatsformosquito pupae,asnotedabove(Chadeeetal.,2008). Table4.23:MainVectorBorneDiseases,PopulationsatRiskandBurdenofDiseases

Source:McMichaeletal.,2003
Researchdoneelsewhere(Halesetal.,1996andPovedaetal.,2000)revealedthatdengueepidemics are associated with the warm episodes of El Nio Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. Initial investigationsshowedthatpeaksinreportedcasesofdengueintheCaribbeanoccurredinElNioyears 315
andinyearsimmediatelyfollowinganElNio(ElNio+1years),whentemperaturesintheCaribbean are warmer than normal. The link appears to be the adaptation of the dengue virus to temperature changes.Theextrinsicincubationperiod(i.e.,periodofincubationofparasiteinsidethevector,orEIP) shortens and transmission increases (Focks et al., 1995 and Koopman, et al., 1991). Higher temperatures also increase the amount of feeding and so increase the probability of dengue transmission to new hosts. Moderately high temperatures hasten the larval stage, leading to smaller mosquitoes,whichthenrequiremorefrequentbloodmeal,whileincreasedtemperaturealsoenhance metabolism. From 2002 to 2006 Jamaica participated in the project, The Threat of Dengue Fever Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation to Climate Change in Human Health in the Caribbean funded by the AssessmentsofImpactsandAdaptationstoClimateChange(AIACC)projectandexecutedjointlybyThe UniversityoftheWestIndies(UWI)MonaandtheCaribbeanEpidemiologyCentre(Chenetal.,2006a). Theaimsoftheprojectwere: i) to determine the extent of the association between climate and the incidence of dengue acrosstheCaribbeanregion; ii) to identify and evaluate adaptive options to ameliorate the impact of climate on this disease; iii) toproposeadaptationstrategiesbasedonclimatechangescenarios; iv) tomaketheknowledgegainedaccessibleandusefultodecisionmakers. Keycomponentsofthisprojectincludedretrospectiveandprospectivestudies,aKnowledge,Attitude, andPractices(KAP)survey,andidentificationofadaptationoptionssuchasanearlywarningsystemand responseframeworkfordenguefever. A.RetrospectiveStudy(Amarakoonetal.,2006) Thepurposeofthisstudywastoinvestigatethenatureandextentoftheassociationbetweenclimate andtheincidenceofdengueacrosstheCaribbean,andtoexaminetemperatureindicesthatmayprove useful in gauging the potential for the onset of dengue. Data for temperature and precipitation were availablefrommeteorologicalofficesacrosstheCaribbean,anddataondenguewereobtainedfromthe CaribbeanEpidemiologyCentre.Temperatureindicestoevaluatetheonsetofdenguewereseentobe ofimmensevalueinplanningpreventativeandadaptationstrategies The study showed that in the Caribbean, the epidemics (outbreaks) of dengue have a well defined seasonality,occurringinthelatterhalfoftheyearduringwhichtheCaribbeancountriesarewarmand wet. The seasonality was clearly present in the patterns of the disease for the individual countries. Examples are in Figure 4.16 which shows the monthly variability of reported cases, temperature and rainfall during 199601 in Trinidad and Tobago and illustrates the seasonality of dengue and the relationshipofepidemicstotemperatureandrainfall.Withrespecttotherelationbetweenepidemics andtemperatureandrainfall,itisevidentfromFigure4.16thatthewarmingoccursfirst,thenrainfall, andthenthedengueepidemic.Thusweseeasimplepatternbetweenonsetoftheepidemic,warming, andprecipitation.Similarresultswereobtainedinthestudiesfromothercountries.
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Figure4.16: TimeSeriesofMonthlyReportedDengueCases,RainfallandTemperatureinTrinidad andTobago(199601)
ItwasalsoevidentthattheprobabilityofanepidemicduringanElNioperiod(ElNioandElNio+1 year) is higher. The results given in Table 4.24 further support this inference. Thus, it appears that dengueoutbreakshaveastrongassociationwithElNioevents,probablybecausethelatterpartofthe El Nioyear iswarmer andtheearly partof theEl Nio+1year iswetter andwarmer.Theseclimatic conditions are more favourable for sustaining the epidemics through increases in mosquito habitats, shorteningEIP,andincreasingdiseasetransmissionrates.Also,itwasevidentthattheepidemicshavea periodicitythatapproximatelyagreeswiththeperiodicityofElNioevents.Thistypeofperiodicityhas beenanalyzedandreportedfordengueinThailandbyCazellesetal.(2005). Table4.24:DistributionofDenguePeaksamongENSOPhases(SourceCaribbeanEpidemiologyCentre, 19802001)
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Detailedanalysisoftheannualreportedcasesandclimateparameters(temperatureandrainfall),yearly patterns of disease and climate parameters, including lagged cross correlation studies revealed the followingresults: i. Correlation of annual reported cases with temperature and rainfall indicated that the associationwithtemperatureismuchstrongerthanthatwithrainfall; ii. During years in which warming or rising temperatures occurred earlier, the onset (initial appearanceoftheclinicalcases)ofthediseaseandthetransformationtoanepidemicappeared tooccurearlierthanusualandtheonsettogetherwiththetransformationcloselyfollowedthe epidemic of the previous year. This feature was more pronounced if the previous year was a warmerone; iii. In many years, start or onset of the disease generally appeared to occur during the summer period,followingtheearlytemperaturepeakbyafewweeks; iv. Themoistureavailabilitywasobservedtobenecessaryfortheonsetofdengue,buttheamount ofmoisturedidnotappeartobecriticalfortheonset. Atemperatureindex,MAT Atemperatureindexwasdevelopedtogaugethepotentialfortheonsetofdengue.Thebestindexwas a moving average of monthly temperature, which was given the name Moving Average Temperature (MAT). The average value of MAT (AMAT) over a number of years was also calculated. Figure 4.17 showsacombinedgraphofMAT,thecorrespondingnumberofreportedcasesforTrinidadandTobago fortheyears1992,1994,1999,and2001andthevalueofAMATfor197901(27.2C).Notetheonset of the epidemic four to six weeks after the MAT crosses AMAT in 1999 and 2001 and eight weeks afterwardsin1994.NotealsotheslowapproachtoAMATin1992associatedwithlatestartofonsetof denguefever. Figure4.17: Reported Dengue Cases, Moving Average Temperature (MAT), and Average MAT in TrinidadandTobago(1992,1994,1999and2001)
RC,Moving Average T vs 4-Weekly periods (1992, 1994, 1999, & 2001) T & T
450 400 28.5 28 27.5 27 250 200 150 100 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
RC-1992 RC-1994 RC-1999 RC-2001 MAT-1992 MAT-1994 MAT-1999 MAT-2001 27.2 C Line
Reported Cases (RC)- 4 WEEKLY
350 300
26.5 26 25.5 25 24.5
4 WEEK PERIODS
MAT in C
318
Figure4.18showsasimilargraphfor1996,1997,1998,and2000.Inthisgraph,theearlycrossingof AMAT in 1998 is associated with the early onset of the epidemic and the slow approach in 1997 is associatedwithlateonset.Thecrossingsin1996and2000coincidewithonset.Itdoesappearthatthe timeatwhichtheAMATisapproachedorreachedcanbeusedtogaugethepotentialfortheonsetofan epidemic;itappearstobetheforbearerofthedisease. Figure4.18: ReportedDengueCases(RC),MovingAverageTemperature(MAT)andAverageMATin TrinidadandTobago(199698and2000)
RC, Moving Average T vs 4-Week periods (1996, 1997, 1998, & 2000) T&T
1000 900
RC-1996 RC-1997 RC-1998 RC-2000 MAT-1996 MAT-1997 MAT-1998 MAT-2000 27.2 C Lline
29 28.75 28.5 28.25 28 27.75

MAT in C
Reported Cases (RC)-4 WEEKLY
800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1
27.5 27.25 27 26.75 26.5 26.25 26 25.75 25.5 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
B.ProspectiveStudy An index for measuring the prevalence of mosquitoes is the Breteau Index, which is the number of containerspositiveforlarvaeorpupaeoftheAedesaegyptimosquito(denguevector)per100premises. Figure 4.19 shows the Breteau Index measured in Trinidad and Tobago from 198101 and the corresponding number of reported dengue cases. The Breteau Index starts to increase before the numberofreportedcasesandshowspotentialasapredictorofdengue.Figure4.20showsthemonthly distributionoftheBreteauIndex,reporteddenguecasesandrainfallduring2002,whentheprospective study was done. It clearly shows that the Breteau Index starts to increase about a month before an increaseindenguecasesisreported.
4-WEEK PERIODS
319
Figure4.19:TimeseriesofBreteauIndexandReportedDengueCasesinTrinidad&Tobago(198101) 180 50 45 160 Breteau Index 40 Dengue Cases 140 35 120 30 100 25 80 20 60 15 40 10 20 5 0 0 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Year
Source:Chenetal.,2006b
Figure4.20: 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0

No. dengue cases
BreteauIndex,DengueCasesandRainfallinTrinidad&Tobago(2002)
rainfall 25 20 15 10 5 0 J F M A M J J A S O N D Months Aedes aegypti index
Dengue Cases Rainfall Breteau index
Dengue Cases
Breteau Index
Source:Chenetal.,2006b
C.Knowledge,AttitudeandPractices(KAP)Survey Indeterminingvulnerabilityandadaptation,itisgoodtoknowapopulationsknowledge,attitudesand practices (KAP) with respect to the environment and climate change. Such information can guide recommendations for adaptation to climate change by pointing to models of intervention (e.g., educationalorenvironmental?),mobilization(e.g.,communityand/ornationallevelparticipation?)and adaptation(e.g.,earlywarningsystems). KAPsurveyswerecarriedoutinTrinidadandTobago,St.KittsNevisandJamaicaaspartoftheAIACC project.Althoughthediseasesconcernedinthesurveyweredenguefeveranddenguehaemorrhagic 320
fever, the results and conclusions would be applicable to all vectorborne and environmental related diseases.Theknowledgegainedformthisstudyisthereforetimely.Adescriptionoftheresultsofthe KAPsurveyfollows(RawlinsandBaileyetal.,2006). Studydesign:AquestionnairewasusedtosolicitinformationfromvariouscommunitiesinTrinidadand Tobago, St. KittsNevis, and Jamaica on their knowledge, attitudes and practices relating to dengue fever. There were questions relating to the demographics of respondents; their understanding of the concepts of climate change and climate variability; knowledge of dengue fever and its transmission; attitudes towards disease prevention; and actual disease prevention strategies used by the communities.Arandomlystratifiedsamplingmethodwasadoptedforallthreecountries. Arepresentativesampleof300respondentswasselectedfromcommunitiesinurbanandruralJamaica. An attempt was made to select communities that were broadly representative of the Jamaican population. Clusters were selected from inner city and suburban middle/high income areas in the Kingston Metropolitan Area and a community in rural St. Andrew, as well as an urban and rural community in the parish of St. James. It was known from the fragmentary data on the occurrence of dengue fever in 1998 that some members of the rural community in St. James were infected with dengue fever during that outbreak. Two hundred and fortytwo heads of households, or just over 80 percentoftheselectedsample,agreedtotakepartinthesurvey. Results: Of the 242 respondents, 61 percent were female and 39 percent male. Sixty percent lived in urbanareasandtherestinrural.Since53percentofthepopulationofJamaicahasbeenclassifiedas urban,thissegmentofthepopulationwasslightlyoverrepresentedinthesample.Thelargestsingle agecohortrepresentedwasthe2434agecategory,whichformed30percentofthesample.Thiswas followedbythe3544agegroup.Over91percentofrespondentswerebelowage65.Thelargestband foreducationalattainmentwassecondaryeducation,accountingfor49percentofrespondents.Those withatertiaryeducationcomprisedonly8percentofthesample.Insofaraseducationalattainmentwas concerned,theJamaicansamplewassimilartothatofTrinidadandTobago,butbelowthelevelreached in St. KittsNevis. Most respondents were employed and those who lived on their own were mainly renting. Fortyeight respondents said that they had had dengue fever in the past and, of these, 69 percent had contracted the illness on one occasion and 20 percent on two or more occasions. Males weremorelikelythanfemalestohavethedenguefeverdiagnosedbyamedicalpractitioner. Understanding the concept of climate change: Most respondents did not have a clear understandingofthetermclimatechange.Thelargestsinglegroup(31%)feltthattheterm referredtoshorttermfluctuationsintheearthsclimate.Lessthan24percentregardeditasan increaseintheearthstemperature,andalmostasmanysawitasinvolvingbothtemperature andrainfallincreases.Thenumbergivingthecorrectresponse(oflongtermfluctuationsinthe earthsclimate)was22percent. Causesofclimatechange:Anequalnumberbelievedthatclimatechangewastheresultofthe pollutionofair,water,andland resultingfrommansactivities(34%)asthosewhothoughtit theworkofGod(34%).Afurther30percentofrespondentsfeltthattheprocesswastheresult ofsupernaturalphenomena.ThesupernaturalelementassumedgreaterimportanceinJamaica than in the other islands. Only three persons claimed that they did not know the cause of climatechange,comparedwithmorethan30inTrinidadandTobagoandSt.KittsNevis. 321
Sources of information on climate change: Respondents received climate change information from various sources, including their peers, family members, neighbours, and electronic and print media. The dominant source of information was the electronic media, mentioned by 23 percentoftherespondents.Thiswasfollowedbypeers(18%)andthenewspaper(percentnot available).Asintheothercountries,familyandneighboursweretheleastimportantassources ofinformationonclimatechange.
Respondingtoaquestionastowhichareasoftheirliveswerelikelytobeaffectedbyclimatechange, respondents gave a variety of responses. However, health was the most frequent response (29%), closely followed by agriculture (28%), water (27%), and biodiversity and coastal degradation (11%). Othersmentionedthepossibilityofnaturaldisastersandsoilerosion.Inallcountriessurveyed,health emergedastheareaofgreatestconcern.Thosewhoexpressedconcernsabouthealtheffectsfeltthat climatechangewouldresultinanincreaseintheoccurrenceofdiseases(89%),facilitateamorerapid spread(3%),andincreasemortality(3%). Only4percentoftherespondentsinJamaicaclaimedthattheydidnotknowthemechanismthrough whichclimatechangewouldexertitseffectsonhealth.InTrinidadandTobagoandSt.KittsNevis,the numbernotrespondingtothisquestionwas54.3%and56.6%respectively.Inaddition,respondentsfelt that climate change would exert an effect on water bodies, primarily through pollution (57%) and drought(17%).Itwasalsoassumedthattherewouldbealossofcropsandlivestock,therebycreating foodshortages,extinctionofspeciesandthedestructionofthecoralsoffthecoastoftheisland.Overa quarter of the respondents were unable to specify the mechanisms causing loss of biodiversity (28%) andcoastaldegradation(24%). Potential link between climate change, climate variability and dengue fever: A significant number of respondents perceived an increase in the incidence of dengue fever in the wet season(73%);only1percentcitedalinkwiththedryseason.Asubstantialminority(25%)could notmakeanyassociation.Thoseassociatingdenguefeverincidencewiththewetseasonargued thatan increasein rainfall increasedthenumber ofbreedingsitesofthe mosquito (62%)and alsoaffectedvirusreplication(17%)andlifecycle(15%)ofthevector.Hightemperatureswere also believed to affect the development and life cycle of the mosquito. One of those who associatedanincreaseintransmissionwiththedryseasonfeltthatwascausedbyanincreasein waterstorage.Morethanhalftherespondents(57%)suggestedthepossibilityofanincreasein dengue fever transmission resulting from climate change given an expected increase in temperature and rainfall. However, 31 percent of the respondents could see no relationship betweenclimatechangeandtheoccurrenceofdenguefever. Knowledgeofdenguetransmissionanddiseasesymptoms:Eightypercentofrespondentsknew thatdenguefeverwastransmittedbyamosquito,howeveronly29percentknewthenameof the mosquito (Ae aegypti) responsible for dengue fever transmission in the Caribbean. Respondents in urban areas were more likely than those in the rural areas to know that mosquitoes were vectors, although the difference was not statistically significant. The percentageclaimingthattheydidnotknowwasalmosttwiceaslargeinruralasinurbanareas. However, of those who knew that mosquitoes were vectors, significantly more rural respondents were able to name the mosquito and this was influenced by the high level of knowledgegainedfrompriorexposuretodenguefeveroutbreaksinruralSt.James(66%).With respecttotherespondentsknowledgeofthesymptomsofdenguefever,itwasnotsurprising thatmostrespondents(77%)namedfever,followedbypain(57%)andrash(30%). 322
Respondents in the upper income area in the Kingston Metropolitan Area limited their responses to thesethreeclassicalsymptomsofthedisease.InruralSt.Jamesespecially,conditionssuchasdizziness, weakness,upsetstomach,vomitingandlossofappetitewerelisted.Relativelyfew(27%)wereableto distinguishbetweenthesymptomsofdenguefeveranddenguehaemorrhagicfever.Infact,verylittle wasknownaboutthelatter. Attitudes to the disease: Almost 91 percent of the Jamaican respondents considered dengue feverasaseriousdisease,withonly7percentnotconsideringittobeseriousorveryserious.In viewoftheseriousnessofthedisease,medicalinterventionwasthoughttobenecessary(94%). Respondents felt that such intervention was more likely to relieve the symptoms (92%) than curethedisease.Asignificantlyhighernumber(59%)considereddenguehaemorrhagicfevera seriousorveryseriousdisease.Thirtyninepercentclaimedtheydidnotknowtheanswertothis question. Dengue prevention: Respondents gave a number of responses as to their views on the best methodsofpreventingthebreedingofmosquitoes.Theemploymentofpesticidesoils,sprays wasthemostpopularchoice(44%).Othersfeltthatenvironmentalsanitation(29%)andpublic education(27%)weremostlikelytoyieldresults.Sprayingwasalsoseenasthebestmethodof controlling the adult mosquito (62%) since it was effective in killing them (60%) and it was efficient in that it covered a wide area rapidly. But those who objected to spraying were concernedaboutitshealtheffectsandaboutthemosquitoesdevelopingatolerancetosprays. Those who harboured anxiety about the health effects of the use of pesticides had more confidenceinpubliceducationandenvironmentalsanitationthanintheuseofpesticides. ResponsibilityfordenguecontrolwasseenprimarilyasthatoftheMinistryofHealth(30%),followedby theindividual,thecommunity,andthefamily.Eightyonepercentfeltthatenoughwasnotbeingdone bytheMinistryofHealthtocontrolvectorstherewasnopubliceducation(65%)campaign(almost90 percent of those interviewed felt that there was an urgent need for this), no organized community cleanupexercises(66%)andnoregularspraying.Almost44percentcouldnotrecallthelasttimethat their community had been sprayed. The majority expressed a willingness to be involved in public educationcampaignscentredondenguefever. Practices:Inall,79%oftherespondentssaidthattheymadeanefforttocontrolthebreedingof mosquitoes around their homes through various forms of environmental sanitation methods. Althoughthosewhobelievedthattheindividualhadaresponsibilitytocontrolthevectorwere morelikelytogiveapositiveresponse,thedifferencewasnotstatisticallysignificant.About59 percentmadeanefforttoprotectthemselvesfrombeingbittenbymosquitoeswhileindoors, whichiswheretheyfelttheyweremorelikelytobebitten.Repellentswerethemostpopular choice overall. Fewer (25%) protected themselves when outdoors and while repellents were also favoured for outdoor protection by urban respondents, rural respondents mentioned smokeandtheuseofclothing. Respondentswereaskedwhatpreparationstheymadewhentheywerewarnedthattheircommunity was tobe sprayed. Fortyone per cent said thatthey closed all windows and doors (whichdefeatthe purpose, since the Ae aegypti mosquito is domiciliated). Thirty four per cent opened doors and windows,andtherestmadenopreparations.Therewasasignificantdifferenceinthepracticeofthose 323
whohadobjectionstotheuseofsprayingandexpressedapreferenceforpubliceducationasaformof control,andthosewhobelievedintheuseofpesticides.Theformerwasmorelikelytoclosedoorsand windowsthanthelatter. Thesurveyrevealedthatthereisadeficitinknowledgeofclimatechangeatthecommunitylevel.More than50percentofthesamplecouldnotdefinethetermorstatethecauseofclimatechange.Alarge sectorofthepopulationascribedthephenomenonsolelytosupernaturalcausesandtheimplicationof this was that they did not have an understanding of their role in contributing to and mitigating the effectsofchange.Therewasalsoapaucityofknowledgeofdenguefeverandmanyrespondentshad extremedifficultyinestablishingalinkbetweenclimatechangeandthetransmissionofthedisease.Itis quite possible that if more information on climate change within the Caribbean and its link with outbreaksofdenguefeverweremadeavailabletothepublic,itmightstimulatemoreinterestandthe conceptmaybelessofanabstractionthanitappearstobeatpresent.Tothisend,theelectronicmedia thatseemstobeanimportantsourceofinformationcouldbemobilized. There is also need for more public education on the transmission of dengue fever and especially of denguehaemorrhagicfever.Thesymptomsofdenguefeverappearedtobewellknownbuttherehas been little experience of dengue haemorrhagic fever in Jamaica, hence knowledge is correspondingly low.Howeveroneoftheeffectsofthecirculationofseveralserotypesandthepossibilityofincreased transmission consequent on climate change is an increase in the incidence of dengue haemorrhagic fever.Atthemoment,itappearsthatthereisnoappreciationoftheseriousnessofthedisease.Asfaras public health adaptive strategies are concerned, the WHO has emphasized the benefits of public education programmes and the need for the population to be informed about the possible consequencesofsequentialinfectionandthenatureofthethreatposedbydenguehaemorrhagicfever (PAHO, 1994). This level of awareness can only come about through a public education programme. Researchhasshown,however,thatbecauseofresourceconstraints,verylittleattentionisbeinggiven topubliceducationcampaigns.Respondentsinthestudyhaveshownthattheyrecognizethebenefitsof apublicawarenesscampaign,aswellastheneglect. Itiswidelybelievedthattheprimaryresponsibilityforvectorcontrolisthegovernments(PAHO,1994). However,communitieshaveanimportantroletoplayandthetwomustworkinconcert.Thesurveyhas shownthatmostrespondentsviewedvectorcontrolasagovernmentresponsibility.However,whatwas significantwasthatthosewhosawthattheindividualhadaroletoplayalsotendedtoplayanactive part in vector control. This underscores the need for public education as a tool to empower communitiestoplayanactivepartinvectorcontrol.Oneverypositiveaspectofthesurveywasthehigh levelofwillingnessdisplayedbycommunitiestoworkalongsidethegovernmentineliminatingmosquito breedinghabitatsthroughcommunitycleanupexercises;79percentindicatedthattheywouldsupport suchaventure.Thereweremanywhowerenotconvincedoftheefficacyoradvisabilityofsprayingasa means of vector control. These were the respondents who placed the emphasis on environmental sanitation. Spraying is sometimes used, often in response to community complaints of high levels of infestation. However such exercises become more of a waste of resources if houses are closed to excludethepesticide.Itispossiblethatsuchactionsmaybetakeninignoranceofthehabitsofvectors. Theneedforpubliceducationandcooperationbetweencommunitiesandpublichealthauthoritiesto devisethebeststrategiesforvectorcontrolandthereductionoftransmissioncannotbeoverstated. TheKAPstudyshowedthatinSt.KittsNevisandTrinidadandTobago,respondentsdemonstratedgood knowledge about climate change, attitudes to climate change/climate variability and the use of this informationforadaptationfordenguefeverprevention.However,theknowledgeandattitudesofthe 324
Jamaican respondents were less than that those observed in Trinidad and Tobago. The major issue highlightedwastheuseofsuchknowledge(knowledgeintoaction).Atthetimeofthesurvey,noeffort hadbeenmadeinJamaicatohighlightclimatechange/climatevariabilityasanimportantriskfactorfor enhanced dengue fever transmission, thereby developing adaptation during periods of predicted high riskwhichcouldbeavaluableadditionaltooltopreventdiseasetransmission. Theburdenfallsonthescientificcommunityto: Demonstrate clearly to the public, the links between climate change and dengue fever. It is possibletomakeacaseforriskpredictabilityandapplythisforvectoranddiseasemitigation; Promote climate change information, using alliances of health education for best community involvementandpossiblepositiveresponses; Stimulateresearchonclimatechangeandotherpublichealthissues;and Promotecrossdisciplinaryinitiativesandstudiesonclimatechangeandtheenvironment. D.EarlyWarningSystem&ResponseFramework(Chenetal.,2006b) A final aspect of the AIACC project was to identify potential adaptation options. Using the MAT and BreteauIndicesdescribedearlier,asimpleearlywarningsystemfordenguecanbedevised. Thetwo indicesinthemselveswillindicateonlythepresenceofconditionsnecessaryforadiseaseepidemic.For thediseasetospread,thefollowingfactorsmustbepresent: 1. presenceofthevectorAedesaegypti; 2. presenceofthepathogencirculatinginthepopulation(denguevirus); 3. highdensityofthevectorpopulation; 4. longevityofthevectorforthecompletionoftheextrinsicincubationperiodofthevirus; 5. alargeimmunologicallynavepopulation;and 6. thenonavailabilityofvaccines. To determine the presence of the dengue virus, seroprevalence surveys of the population can be carried out. However, a major consideration has to be the cost of implementing the system. This is particularlyimportantsincedenguefeverisclassifiedasaClassIIdisease,i.e.,notoneofhighpriority, especiallywhencomparedwithHIV/AIDSeventhoughina1981outbreakinCubatherewere10,312 casesofdenguehemorrhagicfeverand156deaths(Uribe,1983).Thus,alessexpensivealternativetoa campaignofseroprevalencesurveysisfortheMinistryofHealthtoensurethatalldiagnosedcasesof denguearereported. Keepinginmindtheelementofcostandtheneedtobeassimpleaspossibletoencourageuptake,the early warning system that evolved was a checklist of indices to be monitored. The order in which surveillancesaretobecarriedoutorindicesmonitoredare: 1. ClimatesurveillanceforMATIndex; 2. EpidemiologysurveillanceforBreteauIndex; 3. Firstreportedcasesofdenguebelowtheepidemiclevel.32
Intheoriginalprojectreport,thesystemcanbeimprovedbytheintroductionofathirdindex,thepupaeper personindex.Howeverthisindexrequiredaleveloftechnicalexpertisewhichwouldrequiremoremanpowerand trainingthattheGovernmentofJamaicawasunlikelytofundatthetime.Formoreinformation,seeFocksand Chadee,1997,andFocksetal.,2000.
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The MAT index is the easiest to monitor. It simply requires data from an operational meteorological station. More costly epidemiology surveillance need not be carried out until the MAT index starts to indicate favourable conditions for development of disease within the vector and human populations. When this occurs, epidemiology surveillance, i.e., sending health inspectors into the field, can be put intoplacetoimproveenvironmentalsanitationandtosensitizethepopulationtotheneedforaclean environment.Thelevelofalertcanbeincreasedoncecasesarereported. The responsible surveillance agencies for the MAT index could be the national meteorological offices, which would provide temperature data, and the Climate Studies Group, Mona (CSGM), who would monitor the MAT index. The responsible agencies for monitoring the epidemiology indices and the reportingcasesofdenguefeverwouldbetheMinistryofHealth. Theepidemicresponseelicitedwoulddependontheresourcesandpoliciesofthegovernment.Ideally thereshouldbeaninfrastructureforclimateandepidemiologysurveillanceandforongoingevaluation andprevention.Thiscombinedsystemcouldprovidetheframeworkforriskanalysisandvulnerability assessment, for issuing watch/warnings similar to storm and hurricane preparedness, and for developingresponsestrategies.Thesystemmustalsobecapableofcommunicatingeffectivelywiththe publicandofsolicitingfeedback. Leptospirosis ArecentprojectinthedepartmentofPhysics,UWI,investigatedthelinkagesbetweenclimatechange andleptospirosis(Batchelor,2010).Leptospirosisisazoonoticbacterialinfectionwhichisusuallyspread tohumansthroughwaterorsoilthathasbeencontaminatedwithurinefrominfectedwildordomestic animals.IntheCaribbean,thereisalsoaclimaticlinkbetweenleptospirosisandprecipitation.Storcket al.(2005)foundapositivecorrelationbetweenrainfallandtheincidenceofleptospirosisinGuadeloupe, whileBrown(2004)foundahighcorrelationwithleptospirosisinthesecondrainyseasonofJamaica. SpectraltechniquessuchasFourieranalysishavebeenusedtofindtherelationshipbetweendiseases andclimatevariablesbuttheyfailtotakeintoaccountnonstationarycharacteristics.Forthisreason, wavelet analysis is becoming increasingly popular to capture the nonstationary features of signals by observingthedominantfrequenciesasafunctionoftime.Cazellesetal.(2005)usedthisapproachto demonstrate the synchrony between dengue fever in Thailand and the NINO 3 climate index. It was againusedbyChavezandPascual(2006)fordescribingthedominantmodesofcutaneousleishmaniasis incidenceinCostaRicaandprovidingevidenceofassociationtoclimatevariability. In the Jamaican analysis, data of reported cases of leptospirosis were obtained from the Ministry of Health and climate data (including maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation) wereobtainedfromtheClimateStudiesGroupatTheUniversityoftheWestIndies(MonaCampus),as wellasfromthewebsiteClimateExplorer. Theresultscomputedshowfivemajorareaswhichhaveasignificantlyhighcorrelationwithrainfall.In thedatasetaresixepisodesofElNiowhichrepeatsbetweenthreetofiveyears.Forthisreason,there couldalsobeacorrelationwithleptospirosisandElNioeventsinJamaica(Batchelor,2008). OtherResearchonDiseasesandClimateVariability Amarakoon et al., (2004) provides details on the nature of association of diseases (dengue, asthma, bronchitis, respiratory tract infections, diarrhoeal illnesses) with climate variability, by studying the 326
patternsofthediseasesandinvestigatingthedegreeofcorrelationbetweenthediseasesandclimate parameters(temperature,rainfall,relativehumidity,Saharadust).ThecountriesstudiedwereBarbados andSt.Lucia.Resultsindicatedthatthediseasesconsideredexhibitaseasonalpattern.Occurrencesare more likely in the latter part of the year (warmer) and extend to the early part of the following year (cooler).Diseasepatternsexhibitassociationwithclimateparameters.Dengueshowsassociationwith temperature and rainfall; respiratory diseases (asthma, bronchitis, respiratory tract infection) show association with temperature, relative humidity, and Sahara dust; while diarrhoeal illnesses with temperatureandrainfall. Acommonfeatureobservedwasthatclimateparametersappeartoexhibitapositivecorrelationwith thediseasesafteracertainlag.Theinfluenceoftemperatureappearstobethestrongest.Inthecaseof respiratorydiseases,Saharandustwasbelievedbysometobeaprimarytriggerbutthelowoccurrence of asthma, bronchitis, and respiratory tract infection in summer, when Sahara dust concentration is high,maybesuggestingthatseasonalweatherchangesaredominatingintriggeringthediseases.Also tobenotedisthatSaharadustcorrelateswellwithtemperature.Further,theinfluenceofothertriggers such as local dust, pollen, smoke and ground level ozone cannot be ignored. Researchers in Trinidad and Tobago also reported a correlation between paediatric admissions for asthma and increasing Saharandustcover(Gyan,etal.,2005,McCarthy,2001). Amarakoonetal.(2004)notedthattheresultswerebasedonalimitedamountofhealthdata(200002) andthatanindepthstudyisrequired,withlongertimeseriesofhealthdata,toreinforceandvalidate theobservations,especiallyforrespiratorydiseases.Also,duetoalackofdata,noattemptwasmadeto examine the influence of various triggers: pollen, local dust, smoke, and ground level ozone on respiratory diseases. Based on the trends observed in climate parameters, possibility exists for the SouthEasternCaribbeantoexperiencehigherincidencesofdengue,respiratorydiseasesandDiarrheal illnessesinthepresentcentury. OtherThreatstoHealth Health and well being depend on ecosystems and the services that they provide food, water, and regulating, supporting and cultural services. The Millennium Assessment (2005) classified climate changeasoneofthedirectdriversofchange,presentingthreatstohealtheitherindirectlythroughits effectsonservicesordirectlythroughitsinfluence,forexample,onvectorsofdiseases.Basedonthe analysisofvulnerabilitiesandtheprojectionsofclimatechangeinJamaica,thefollowinghealththreats inducedbyclimatechangearepossibleinJamaica. Threat from droughts and higher temperatures: Drought and high temperature can affect health indirectlythroughthelossoffoodproductionandsubsequentnecessitytoimportfoodand/orsuffer food shortages, which may lead to hunger and malnutrition. Drought can also impact on the availability of potable water which can result in poor sanitation and the spread of disease. A reductioninrainfallleadstolowriverflowreducedeffluentdilutionandincreasedpathogenloading. Droughts may also lead to an increase in the abundance of mosquitoes since the amount of water storage in containers may increase with droughts, thereby providing suitable habitats for the mosquitoes.Asnotedearlier,thiswouldhaveadirectimpactondenguefevertransmissionandthat ofmalariaifpresent. Whiledenguefeverhasbeendiscussedinsomedetailinthisreport,theimpactofclimatechangeon malariaisunclearandsubjecttomuchcontroversy.AnalysesoftimeseriesdatainsomesitesinEast 327
Africaindicatethatmalariaincidencehasincreasedintheapparentabsenceofclimatetrends(Hayet al.,2002;Shanksetal.,2002).Themalariaresurgencewasattributedtofactorsincludingdrugresistance of the malaria parasite and a decrease in vector control activities. However, the validity of this conclusion has been questioned because it may have resulted from inappropriate use of the climatic data(Patz,2002).Ontheotherhand,analysisofupdatedtemperaturedatafortheseregionshasfound a significant warming trend since the end of the 1970s, with the magnitude of the change affecting transmission potential (Pascual et al., 2006). Malaria was almost completely eradicated from the EnglishspeakingCaribbeansincethemidtwentiethcentury,butincreasedillegaltransitbyfishermento Haiti,wheremalariaisendemic,posesaseriousthreattoJamaica. Temperatureincreasesmayincreasethealtitudinalrangeofanumberdiseasecarryingmosquitoesand mayaffectcommunitiesinuplandareasthatarenowoutsidetherangeofthesemosquitoes.Higher temperatures may also be associated with increased episodes of diarrhoeal diseases and increase dangerouspollutants.Inthefirstplace,pollutantswillbetransportedfurtherduetogreatermixingof theair.Inaddition,ozoneconcentrationincreaseswhennitrogenoxideandvolatileorganiccompounds (producedfromautomobiles)reactinthepresenceofbrightsunshinewithhightemperature.Exposure to elevated concentrations of ozone is associated with increased hospital admission for pneumonia, chronicpulmonarydisease,asthma,allergicrhinitisandprematuremortality Highertemperaturesmaycausegreatercontactbetweenfoodandpestspecies,especiallyflies,leading tothespreadofdiseases Warmerseasmaycontributetotoxicalgaebloomandincreasedcasesofhumanshellfishandreeffish poisoning(ciguatera).SuchcaseshavebeenreportedinFrenchPolynesia. Projections for industrialized countries show that heatrelated morbidity and mortality is projectedto increase.Howevertheburdenofheatrelatedmortalityisreducedwhenacclimatizationandadaptation aretakenintoaccount.Thustheeffectontropicalcountries,suchasintheCaribbean,wouldprobably besmall Finally, changes in temperature and precipitation are also projected to increase the frequency and severityoffireeventscausingburnsandillnessfromsmokeinhalation. Threats from increased storm severity (category 5 hurricanes): While storms may decrease in frequency, severe hurricanes of category 5, with increased rainfall, have been projected to increase underatleastonemodel.Thiswouldleadtoseverefloodingandlossofhabitat.Itwouldalsoincrease the risk of waterborne and rodentborne diseases such as typhoid and leptospirosis. In addition, increasedfloodingandstructuraldamageincoastalregionsduetostormsurgeswillbecompoundedby sealevelrise. 4.4.5 ProposedElementsofanHealthAdaptationStrategyforJamaica AStrengths,Weaknesses,OpportunitiesandThreats(SWOT)analysis(Table4.25)wasundertakenbased upon the threats to human health posed by scenarios of future climate change and the state of readinessofresponseagentssuchastheMinistryofHealth,MinistryofAgriculture,OfficeofDisaster Preparedness and Emergency Management, National Environmental Planning Association, National Water Commission, Water Resource Association, Forestry Department and the Meteorological Office.
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The purpose of the analysis was to inform recommendations on adaptation strategies and a plan of actiontopreventdangerousconsequencesofclimatechangetothehealthsector. ItisalsonotedthatmanyrecommendationsofadaptationoptionsemergingfromtheV&Aassessments foragriculture,waterresources,andcoastalzoneswillhavedirectrelevancetothehealthsectorand arenotrepeatedhere.Instead,thefocusisplacedonthethreatofincreasedincidenceofdenguefever, sincetheapproachesoutlinedcouldalsobeappliedtoothervectorbornediseases.
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Table4.25:SWOTAnalysisofAdaptiveCapacityofHealthSectorinJamaicatoClimateChange Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Efficienthealthservicebyworld The health system is under Take advantage of 2030 development plan to standards. resourced. mainstream climate change intoallsectorsandpolicies. Fairly good physical access to Inadequate fit between health primaryhealthcarefacilities. servicesprovisionandneedsof elderly Increase efforts to reduce poverty. Relatively high preparedness for disaster, although not for No regular epidemiology climatechange. surveillance, shortage of Reorganize health services to meettheneedsoftheelderly. manpower, equipment, supplies Some recognition that climate Placeemphasisoncommunity change will have implications development better forvectorbornediseases Inadequatelaboratoryfacilities sanitation,watersupply With adequate information, Privileging technological thosecitizenswhosawthatthe intervention over community Educate population about the impacts of climate change, individual had a role to play in development. mitigation and conservation sanitation environmental andenvironmentalupkeep. upkeep also tended to play an Inadequate sampling of water active part role in vector quality,shortfallinfinances. control. Include climate change issues in the mandate of response Link between climate change, agencies. High level of willingness agriculture and health not displayed by communities to sufficientlyappreciated. work alongside the Stimulateresearchonimpacts Government in eliminating Link between extremes in ofclimatechangeonhealth. mosquitobreedinghabitats. weather,disasterpreparedness and health not sufficiently Stimulate inter agency and Good working relationship appreciated. intersectoralcollaboration among organizations involved indisasterpreparedness Inadequate provision for Improvediseasesurveillance. hurricaneshelters.
Threats Threat from droughts and higher temperatures, leading tofoodshortage,hungerand malnutrition. Effect of water shortage, poor sanitation and the spreadofdiseases. Threat of water storage practices providing habitats for mosquitoes and leading to increased dengue and malariatransmission. Threat of temperature increases leading to increased rates of transmission of dengue and denguehemorrhagicfever Fish poisoning, polluted rivers. Heat stress and its effect on anagingpopulation. Threat of air pollution, including ozone increases, and forest fires, leading to respiratorydiseases 330
Strengths Interest in researchbased evidencewithintheMinistryof Health. Extensive study of relationship between climate and dengue fever. Adaptation strategies have beenproposed Decliningpovertylevels. Benefit of CARICOMs projects andstrategies
Weaknesses Inadequate provision for childreninshelters. Absence of planning for sustainable tourism development' Climate change not mainstreamedinhealthpolicy. Lackofknowledgeofcauseand symptoms of dengue among population, Lack of appreciation of the seriousness of dengue hemorrhagic fever among the population. Most residents in vulnerable situationsseevectorcontrolas aresponsibilityofGovernment. Too little attention paid to publiceducation Insufficient interagency and intersectoralcollaboration.
Opportunities Threats Implement early warning Threatsfromincreasedstorm systemsfordengueandother severity leading to flooding, vectorbornediseases. lossofhabitat,increasedrisk of waterborne and rodent borne diseases, such as Options for diversification of typhoidandleptospirosis. tourismproduct. Increased incidence of diseases insheltersfollowing disaster Lack of worldwide emphasis on mitigation of greenhouse gases, especially in USA and Canada.
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InTable4.26,amatrixofpossibleadaptationoptionsisdescribedforcopingwithanincreasedthreatof dengue fever. The methods listed include those currently employed in the Caribbean region, options practicedelsewhereintheworldoronaverylimitedscalewithintheregion,andoptionsthatpresent themselvesasfuture(thoughnottoodistant)possibilityasaresultofongoingresearchintheregion. Table4.26:AdaptationOptionsforCopingwithIncreasedThreatofDengueFeverinJamaica
Theoptionsareassessedonsixcharacteristicswhichareratedhigh,mediumandlow.Forexample,cost is a serious adaptive constraint and so each proposed adaptation option is rated on the likely cost of implementation within the context of the Caribbean region. The assessments are based on expert opinionandareguidedbytheresponsesonquestionnairesadministeredtotheattendeesoftheendof project workshops. They therefore reflect the considered views and knowledge of the regions environmentalhealthofficers.Theassessmentcharacteristicswere: i. Costofimplementation; ii. Effectiveness(asmeasuredbyitslongtermabilitytoreduceriskoraddressvulnerability); iii. Socialacceptability; iv. Environmentalfriendliness; v. Promotionofneighbourliness;and vi. Technicaland/orsocioeconomicchallengestoimplementation. Asimplecompositescoreisofferedinthefinalcolumnforcomparisonpurposes.Incompilingthescore, highisgivenascoreof5,mediumascoreof3andlowascoreof1,exceptforcategories(i)and(vi) wherethescoringallocationisreversed.Themaximumpossiblescoreis30.Thestrategiesfallunderthe three main headings of: 1. health education and promotion, 2. surveillance, and 3. adult and vector control. They are also divided into shortterm and longterm practices, i.e., whether their intent is to immediatelyalleviatethethreatassociatedwithdenguefeverortodosogradually. 332
Table4.28:AdaptationOptionsforCopingwithIncreasedThreatofDengueFeverinJamaica
Theshorttermstrategiesarethosecurrentlyadoptedintheregion,namely:publiceducationaimedat encouraging individuals to identify and eliminate current breeding sites and to identify dengue symptoms; surveillance in outbreak communities for the purpose of environmental sanitization; and adult mosquito control through the use of an appropriate insecticide (fogging). Of the three, public education achieved the highest composite score while fogging achieved the lowest score. Education benefits from the fact that in the present framework it is generally medium to high ranked in each category. Its effectiveness is mediumranked due to the seasonal nature of the campaign, while the presenceofestablishedunitstohandleeducationaccountsforthemedium(asopposedtohigh)ranking withrespecttocostandtechnicalchallenges.Insecticidalfogging,thoughoftdemandedandpracticed, 333
suffersfromlimitedlongtermeffectiveness,aninabilitytopromoteneighbourliness(peopleshuttheir windows), and limited social acceptability as the often used insecticide malathion has a characteristicallyunpleasantodour,andthereistheneedforspecializedequipmentforitsdistribution. Ofthelongtermstrategiesassessed,educationstrategiesagainachievedthehighestcompositeranking (though only marginally so), with the focus being on sustained campaigns aimed at community education (as opposed to targeting individual behavioural practices) and community involvement. Chemical control, surveillance practices, and strategies relying on the individual to personally protect themselves received lowest scores. Surveillance as a longterm approach does not engender neighbourliness(generalsuspicion),whilethebestpersonalprotectivemeasurescomeatacosttothe individuals,therebylimitingtheirpossibleusebythepoorestwhoarethemostvulnerable. Generally, however, most strategies fall in the midrange of scores (1624), suggesting that relative advantagesin oneareaareoffsetbydisadvantagesin other areas.Physicalcontrol viatheuse oflow cost covered drums would address vulnerability issues surrounding water storage, but such drums or drumcoversareyettobedesignedandwouldhavetobesubsidizedormadeavailablefreetothemost vulnerable. Even then, much would depend on householders being vigilant in covering containers. Granting security of tenure to squatter individuals would promote community structure and increase the possibility of the eventual implementation of appropriate infrastructure for regular water supply. Such a move, however, is costly and fraught with social tensions. Biological control, e.g. using fish to control mosquito population is an environmentally friendly option, but is not suited to community practice unless the community could be persuaded of the benefits of proper implementation. Finally, using an early warning system for action would imply the coordination of a number of agencies (e.g. climateresearchandmonitoringagenciesandthehealthministry)andthedevelopmentofappropriate thresholdsforactionandcoordinatedactionplans. BestPracticeRecommendationsforAddressingDengueFever Nosinglebestadaptationoptionexiststocounteractthethreatofincreasingdenguefeverwithinthe Caribbean.AssuggestedbyTable4.28thevarietyofstrategieshastheirrelativemeritsanddemerits.In lightofthat,threeadaptationoptionsareofferedaspossiblewaysofapproachingtheproblem.Each option represents a combination of selected strategies outlined in Table 4.21, with due consideration giventotheirrelativestrengthsandweaknesses.Theoptionsalsogiveprimacytotheneedtoaddress the issues of vulnerability, namely the lack of knowledge about dengue fever, the lack of community structuretofacilitatecollectiveaction,andtheissuesofwaterstorage.Theoptionsincreaseinhuman andeconomicinvestmentrequiredandallassumethatthecurrentlypracticedstrategiesoutlinedareat leastmaintained. Option 1 Refocusing Current Strategies: Option 1 advocate that currently employed strategies are maintained at least at their present level of activity and funding, but that approaches to them be refocused,andrelativelyminormodificationsbemade.Educationisemphasizedasthelynchpinofthis option with, however, a slant towards the personal and community good that would derive from the environmentalsanitationandvectorcontrolstrategiesproposedinthecampaign.Thisisasopposedto merely providing information about the disease and the steps to be taken to reduce mosquito abundance. A proposed modification would also be to engage communities prior to the rainy season through organized activities in nearby churches, schools, youth and service clubs and utilizing competitionstotestknowledgeandcommunitycleanliness.Involvementpriortodengueonsetwould promote longterm behavioural change (not just a dengue season problem) and community 334
responsibility. Vector surveillance in its current form would provide support for the educational activities,particularlyapproachingthedengueseason. Option 1 would call for the least additional investment, though an upgrading of the capacity of the education and promotion units of the health ministry to initiate and sustain activities outside the dengueseasonwouldberequired.Thepossibilityofcostsharingwiththeengagedcommunitygroups shouldalsobeexplored. Option2AddingProperWaterStorage:Option1doesnotaddressthevulnerabilityissuessurrounding properwaterstorage.Theproposedadaptationstrategies(designofdrumsandcoversandsecurityof tenure)arecostly,however,andconsequentlyrequiresgreaterinvestmentbytheMinistryofHealth. For Option 2, the refocusing actions of Option 1 are still undertaken as they address education deficiencies and community involvement and responsibility. In addition, however, the design of a suitable lowcost water storage drum or drum cover would be actively pursued. Currently, water is storedindiscardedoildrumswhichareleftopentocatchwaterrunningfromrooftopswhenitrains. The open nature allows for the breeding of the vector. A unit which allows water in, with a cover is easily removable but secure, or from which water can be easily removed otherwise is the ideal. The option to design a drum cover that meets the latter characteristics also exists as the storage drums commonly utilized are fairly standard in size. Such units/covers do not exist currently and might be costly to design and manufacture with little guarantee of their eventual use by the community. To ensurethelatter,incentiveswouldhavetobeoffered,e.g.,subsidiesandanintensivepubliceducation emphasizing the value of the drums/drum covers. Incentives may also have to be given to cover the drums,despitethepresenceofthedrumcovers,whileeffortswouldalsohaveto be madeto ensure thatotherhabitatsaremadevectorfree. Option3AddinganEarlyWarningSystem:LikeOption1,anearlywarningsystemhastheadvantage ofanticipatoryaction.However,whereasOption1promoteseducationsimplybasedontheknowledge thatthereisadengueseason,anearlywarningsystemattemptstogaugetheseverityofanypossible outbreak.Consequently,enhancedordiminishedresponsescanbemadeonthebasisoftheanticipated levelofthreat.Option3thereforeproposestheactionsofOption1,butcoupledwithanearlywarning system.Asdiscussedearlier,monitoringofclimaticindiceswouldbeundertakenbytheMeteorological Service,regionaluniversitiesand/orregionalclimateresearchinstitutes.Onthisbasis,thefrequencyof surveillance would be altered and the education campaign tailored to meet the level of perceived threat. If surveillance data confirm the presence of the pathogen or an increase in its abundance, subsequentwarningscouldbeissuedasneeded.Abenefitofthismultistagedearlywarningapproachis thatresponseplanscanbegraduallyrampedup(e.g.,theinclusionofotherstrategiessuchaschemical or biological control) as forecast certainty increases. This would give public health officials several opportunitiestoweighthecostsofresponseactionsagainsttheriskposedtothepublic. The implementation of Option 3, however, requires a memorandum of understanding between the cooperating institutions, a definition of roles, a focal point, some investment in research, and the possibilityofstagingofapilotproject.
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AdditionalRecommendationsfortheMinistryofHealth The public should be educated about ways of handling heat stresses; taxes on electric fans shouldbeeliminatedtoencouragepersonslesswellofftopurchasethem,althoughthiswould notbethedirectresponsibilityoftheMinistry; Public education in the area of sanitation and food poisoning need to be increased and steps takentobepreparedforincreasesincidentsoffoodpoisoning; Public health inspection for mosquitoes should increase, even at higher elevations such as MandevilleandChristiana; Pestandrodenteradicationshouldbeimproved. AdditionalRecommendationsforMinistrywithResponsibilityforHousing House designs are strongly influenced by styles that are more appropriate for temperate living. Sustainable design standard are needed for housing in areas subjected not only to yearround high temperatures that are projected to increase, but also to high rainfall and strong hurricane winds. Roofing material used in the island can increase heat absorption and retention and increase thermal stress.Moderndesignsarereplacingthelouveredwindowsthatincreaseventilation.Theelevationof houseswouldalsoincreaseventilationandreducetheriskofflooddamageinlowlyingareas.These changeswouldhelpaddressimpactsofheatstressandeffectsofdisastersonhumanhealth. Moreattentionshouldbepaidtothedesignofsettlementstoreducethoseaspectsthatwouldresultin theamplificationofvectorbornediseases. Priorities Itisrecognizedthattherecommendationsstatedaboveareforanidealsituation,butfundingmaynot beavailableforallneededactions.Priorityshouldbegivento: (i) Optionsforadaptingtoincreasedincidenceofdenguefever,particularlythedesignof suitabledrumsforwaterstorageandforanearlywarningsystembasedontheMATand Breteauindices; (ii) BetterwatermonitoringandmanagementthroughimprovementsintheNationalWater CommissionandtheWaterResourcesAuthoritytoreducerisksofwaterbornediseases; (iii) Improving the capabilities of the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Managementtowarnof,andreactto,disasters; (iv) Improving the data gathering ability and technical and support staff of the MeteorologicalOfficesinceparameterssuchatemperature,airqualityandfloodingare relatedtohumanhealth; (v) More collaboration between research institutions and national agencies involved in dealingwithhealthandclimatechangeissues. Evenifthedangerousclimatechangescenariosdonotmaterialize,thesemeasureswouldbeinthebest interestofthenation,i.e.,theywouldbenoregretsadaptationoptions.
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4.4.6 ConstraintsoftheHealthSectorV&AAssessment Uncertainties related to health and climate change studies could be reduced with improved data and modelling.Allavailableclimatedatafromnationalsources,suchassugarplantations,privateweather stations, national weather stations, public works agencies, etc., should be collected and subject to quality control so it can be used to validate regional models and calibrate statistical models. Support shouldalsobegiventoresearchinstitutionstorunasmanyregionalandstatisticaldownscalingmodels aspossibleforcalibrationandintercomparisonpurposesinordertoreduceuncertainty. ThetruecostoftheimpactofclimatechangeontheJamaicaneconomywithrespecttothehealthsector isunknown.Acostbenefitanalysisshouldbeconductedtodeterminethesecosts. A design for a safe storage drum which will store potable water free of mosquitoes is not available. Incentivesshouldbeprovidedtoencouragethedesignofsuchadrum. Anearlywarningsystemfordenguefeverisnotavailable.Themechanismsfortheoperationofanearly warningsystemfordenguefevershouldbeputinplace.
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4.5
TheCoastalResourcesSector,includingHumanSettlements
FiveareaswereselectedforV&Astudiesbasedonavarietyoffeatureswhich,collectively,characterize much of the Jamaican coastline. Both biogeophysical and socioeconomic factors were considered. Fromthesestudies,acoastalvulnerabilityindexwaspreparedandadaptationoptionsidentified. 4.5.1 MainCharacteristicsoftheCoastalZonesSectorinJamaica Oceanography A microtidal regime exists along most of Jamaicas coastline, the tidal range being about 30cm with spring tide ranges up to about 45cm. The direction of travel and the height of incoming waves are primarily governedby the Trade Winds, so that most wave trains arrive from thenortheast, east and southeast.Thesearerefractedaroundthevariousheadlands,sothatalongthenorthcoastwavesets arrive dominantly from east to northeast, whereas on the south coast the waves come from the southeast. Winter weather systems (northers) are generated by high pressure buildups over the NorthAmericancontinent.Asaresult,winterwavetrainsmayarriveatthenorthcoastfromanorthto northwesterlydirection.Atthistime,conditionsalongthesouthcoasttendtoberelativelycalm. Conversely, in the summer it is the north coast that stays relatively calm while the south coast may sufferforextendedperiodsfromroughseasgeneratedbytheTradeWinds,becausethelengthoffetch extends across the Caribbean Sea. Based on offshore buoy data from south of Jamaica, this creates significantwaveheightsintheJamaicanregionaround1.6m(Table4.29). Table4.29:Data(meanvalues)fromNOAABuoy41018(August1994toJanuary1996) 7.79 Windspeed(m/s) Winddirection(deg.) 90.93 Significantwaveheight(m) 1.63 Waveperiod(s) 5.19
Source:AdaptedfromCalverlyetal.,2001
Asmightbeexpected,theprevailingcurrentsalsoflowfromeasttowest.Figure4.21indicatesthemain pattern in the Jamaican region; more barbs indicate stronger flow (see also NRCA, 1997a). Along the centralpartofthesouthcoast,thesecurrentshavegenerateddunesonmuchofthesouthcoastshelf, and a strong, persistent longshore current moves large quantities of sand at intervals in a westerly direction(Halcrow, 1998; Robinson,2004). Thereasons forthe sporadic sandmovementarenotfully understoodbutareprobablyrelatedtofloodeventsintheRioMinho.
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Figure4.21:OceanCurrentRegimenearJamaicafortheMonthofJuly
JAMAICA
Source:Wust,inEmilsson,1971
DefiningtheCoastalZoneofJamaica Definingthecoastalzoneisacomplexexercise,presentingmanychallenges.Itmaybesimplydefinedas thattransitionalareabetweenthelandandsea,butthenature,sizeandshapeofitsboundariesdepend on several criteria that relate to the resources within the zone and the geographical factors of importance for each segment of the coast. Natural factors might include the extent of typical coastal vegetation, physical features such as beaches and wetlands, the presence of coral reefs, width of the island shelf. Human factors include coastaldependent industries, settlement patterns, aesthetic and recreational features, and management and administrative factors. The coastal classification scheme used forJamaicain theNationalCoastalAtlas (NRCA, 1997)isthe onlyschemepublishedfor Jamaica (Figure4.22).
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Figure4.22:IllustrationofDifferentCoastalBoundariesofJamaica
Source:NRCA,1997
ThefollowingdefinitionsareusedintheCoastalAtlas: TheInlandCoastalAreashould,inanearlyplanningstage,bedefinedasanareabeingwithin threekilometresfromtheseashore.Afterfurtheranalysisofresources,needsandpotentialsas well as functional linkages to the surrounding areas, the boundaries could be adjusted accordingly. The Backshore Area extending from the shoreline and inland to the 40m contour is likely to embracemuchoftheobviouscoastalcharacteristicsonland.Howeveralsothisboundarythe 40mcontourcouldbesubjecttochangesduetolocalconditions. The Foreshore Area is that part of the beach between low and high tide marks equivalent to much of the upper shoreface. It has with the very limited tidal variations in Jamaica an averagewidthofapproximately1.52m,dependingonthetopographyoftheshoreline. TheNearshoreAreareachingfromtheshorelinetothe20mdepthcontourortoadjacentcoral reefs.Outsidethiscontourislikelytoembracemostofthebenthic(i.e.,oceanbottom)area. The Island Shelf Area ranges outside the shoreline to the 30m depth contour, where the sea bottomalmostimmediatelydropsto200manddeeper. Figure4.24furtherindicatesthephysicalfeaturescharacterizingthecoastalzoneassuggestedbyUNEP (redrawnfromTrumbic,2008).
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Figure4.23:PhysicalFeaturesthatCharacterizeaCoastalZone
Forthisassessment,physicalaspectsofthecoastalzoneweredefinedforeachofthefivestudyareas, withemphasisbeingplacedonthefollowingfactors: The Backshore Area is defined (where applicable) by the highest topographic featuresbehind the coastline, following the UNEP definition. This area then encompasses the storm gully systemsthatreachthecoastlineandincludesallwetlandsbehindthecoastalbeaches. ThePrincipalHazardAreaisdefinedbytheregionbetweenthe7.6m(25ft)contourdrawnon most of the 1:12,500 scale topographic map series of Jamaica and the shoreline (mean high water mark, or MHWM). This effectively delineates those areas near the coast that could be affectedbyunusuallylargeinundationscausedbyhurricanestormsurgeortsunami.Althoughit is not expected that flooding on that scale will be frequent or extensive, the delineated zone providesafocusforexaminingfeaturesthatmaybevulnerabletovaryingdegrees.Figure4.24 showstheextentofthePrincipalHazardAreafortheJamaicancoastline. TheIslandShelfAreaencompassestheregionbetweentheshorelineandtheouteredgeofthe island shelf. The zone below MHWM is under the legal jurisdiction of the Beach Control Authority.Thedepthofthe shelfedgeis notfixedbut variesfrom placetoplace,from about 12mtosome35m.Itisconsistentlycharacterizedbythemoreorlessabruptchangeofgradient markingthetopoftheislandslopeintodeepwater.Thewidthoftheislandshelfvariesfrom lessthanhalfakilometretoasmuchas35kmalongthecentralpartofthesouthcoast(roughly delineatedby the 100m isobaths on Figure 4.31. In practice, the floats of fish pots commonly usedbythelocalfishermenfrequentlyindicatetheextentoftheislandshelf.
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Figure4.25:MapofJamaica,showingPrincipalHazardareas(below7.6m)inred
An accurate local assessment of MHWM is difficult to define in Jamaica owing to the absence of a workingtidegaugeandlongtidegaugerecords.ThesurveydatumforlandelevationsisMeanSeaLevel (MSL),determinedfromtidegaugereadingsatPortRoyaloverthe17yearsfrom1956to1972(pers. comm.CalvinThompson,NationalLandAgency;2008).ThemeanannualsealevelsareshowninFigure 4.25.Thewavygreenlineisyeartoyearfluctuationinmeanannualsealevel;thestraightredlineisthe overall trend. The largest yeartoyear fluctuation is 8.8cm, the smallest is 0.3 cm. The overall trend showsariseofabout1.5cm.Someoftheproblemsassociatedwithdefiningalocalsealevelthatcanbe usedasabasisforprojectingfuturesealevelchangesareaddressedinByrnesetal.(2003). Figure4.26:MeanAnnualSeaLevelsatPortRoyal(195571)
Source:ModifiedfromHorsfield,1973
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Ownership In Jamaica, private ownership is supposed to terminate at the highwater mark. The main problem revolvesaroundthedefinitionoftheshorelineandthehighwatermark,nowandintothefuture.The position of highwater mark varies with tides, with seasons, from year to year, with sea level rise (or fall),withbeacherosionorprogradation.Inpractice,ownershipiseffectivelydefinedbythepositionof highwatermarkonthedatethepropertyboundarysurveywasmade. 4.5.2 GeneralImpactsofClimateChangeontheCoastalZoneSector SealevelChange The effects of changes in sealevel on any particular coastline depend on the geological and geomorphologicalcharacteristicsofthatcoastline,includingsedimentsupplies,andtheextenttowhich coastalfeatureshavebeenmodifiedbyhumanactivities. Itisgenerallyacceptedthatsealevelisrising,andthatthisrisewillcontinueintotheforeseeablefuture. Themostrecentinternationallyresearchedpublication(IPCC,2007)suggested,conservatively,thatthe risebetweenthepresent(198099)andtheendofthiscentury(209099)wouldbeabout0.35m(0.21 0.48m)fortheA1Bscenarioand0.260.59mfortheA1F1scenario(IPCC,2007,seeSection10.6).Table 4.30(simplifiedfromIPCC,2007)listsprojectedrisesforanumberofscenariosbytheyear2100). Table4.30:ProjectedGlobalAverageSurfaceWarmingandSeaLevelRiseby2100
Scenario TemperatureChange(degreesC) BestEstimate Likelyrange 1.12.9 1.43.8 1.43.8 1.74.4 2.05.4 2.46.4 SealevelRise(m) Modelbasedrange 0.180.38 0.200.45 0.200.43 0.210.48 0.230.51 0.260.59
B1 1.8 A1T 2.4 B2 2.4 A1B 2.8 A2 3.4 A1F1 4.0 Source:AdaptedfromIPCC2007,TableTS.6
Although the rate ofsealevel rise varies betweendifferent ocean basins,historically, the rate ofsea levelriseintheCaribbeanhasbeenclosetotheglobalaveragerateandisexpectedtocontinuecloseto the global rate (IPCC, 2007, chapter 11 p. 915 and figure 10.32). Therefore projected global average ratesareusedinthisreport. SincetheIPCCpublishedthesefindings,severalpeerreviewedpublicationssuggestthatsealevelriseby theyear2100couldbemorethantwicetheamountprojectedbytheIPCC,perhapsasmuchas1.6m (Rahmstorf,2007;Rignotetal.,2008;Rohlingetal.,2008).Furtherevidenceforpossiblesealevelrise up to three times that projected by the IPCC was presented by Svetlana Jevrejeva and others to the EuropeanGeosciencesUnionconferenceinApril2008(Reutersnewsreport,April15,2008;reviewby Ananthaswamy,2009). Table4.31,basedonexaminationoftheIPCC(2007)projectedcurveandasimilarcurveconstructedby Rahmstorf(2007),suggestslikelyannualriseratesforthepresentday(2008),andfortheyears2015, 343
2030,2050,and2100.Inbothcases,thehighsideofthecurveenvelopewasused.Thetwoprojection sets contained in Table 4.29 were used for this V&A assessment. It should be emphasized that the relativeimportanceofcontributingfactorstosealevelrise(e.g.IPCC2007,Table10.7)andhencethe reliabilityoftheseprojections,iscurrentlyamatterforconsiderabledebateandcontroversy. Table4.31:ApproximateRatesofSeaLevelRiseProjectedForFourFutureTimeSlices(20152100) 2008 2015 2030 2050 2100 Unit Rate(IPCC,2007;highside) 23 3 3.8 4.8 6.1 MM/YR Cumulativeamount 0 23 81 173 451 MM Rate(Rahmstorf,2007;highside) 24 5.7 7.3 11.3 22.2 MM/YR Cumulativeamount 0 28 122 313 1168 MM
Source: Derived empirically from the high side of the envelopes of estimates published by the IPCC (2007) and Rahmstorf(2007)
Researchonthefuturedimensionsofrisingsealevel(IPCC,2001,2007)suggeststhatthecurrentrise willcontinueatleastuntilthereispartialorcompletemeltingoftheworldssmallericecapsandthe Greenland ice cap. Together with thermal expansion of sea water, this will eventually produce a sea levelriseofupto6metres,thatis,withinthe7.6m(25ft)contour. Seasurfacetemperatures ProjectionsofseasurfacetemperatureshavebeenmadefortheCaribbeanbySheppard&RiojaNieto (2005).AgraphbasedondatafromSheppard&RiojaNietoisshowninFigure4.26.Verticalbarsinthe figureindicatetheyears2015,2030,and2050respectively.Avg.16and17refertothetwodatacells closesttoJamaica. Inexaminingtheeffectsofseasurfacetemperatureriseonreefsystems,thefollowingquoteprovides anaptcommentarypertinenttotheJamaicansituation(fromHallock,2005): HoeghGuldberg (1999) reviewed the coralbleaching literature, examined global climate models, and predicted that summer seasurface temperatures high enough to induce coral bleachingwillbecomenearlyannualeventsonreefsworldwideoverthenextseveraldecades. Realistically, coral populations cannot survive annual bleaching. If globalwarming models are even close to accurate, bleaching could eliminate shallowwater coral reefs within a few decades.
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Figure4.26:GraphofSeaSurfaceTemperaturesfortheJamaicanRegion
Source:CompiledfromdatadownloadedfromSheppard&RiojaNieto(2005)
ChangesinAcidity(pH) Thecurrentrateofacidificationoftheoceansisunprecedented.Reductionsofaverageglobalsurface ocean pH of between 0.14 and 0.35 units are projected over the 21st century, adding to the present decreaseof0.1unitssincepreindustrialtimes(therangeisveryroughly8.13decreasedto8.09over 198505,or0.04unitsoverthepast20years(IPCC,2007,Chapter5,p.404)).Ifthisprojectedreduction isrealized,oceanaciditywillreachalevelprobablynotseenforthepast20millionyears(Feelyetal. 2004;Guinotte&Fabry,2008).Themaineffectofincreasedaciditywillbetoreducecalcificationratesof many organisms that generate biogenic calcium carbonate skeletons. No measurements of ocean pH valuesareknowntohavebeenmadearoundJamaica(pers.comm.,MarciaCreary). SevereWeatherEvents Since1980,Atlantichurricanecountsandthepowerdissipationindex(PDI)haveincreasedconsiderably, along with increases in sea surface temperatures. Controversy continues over whether or not the projected increases in sea surface temperatures will lead to a continued increase in storm frequency (IPCC,2007).Thereismoregeneralagreementthattheremaybeanincreaseinthefrequencyofsevere hurricanes. Recent investigations suggest that hurricanegenerated wave heights along the eastern seaboardoftheUSandeasternCaribbeanhavebeenincreasing(Komar&Allan,2008;Halcrow,1998). However, historical studies suggest the current relatively high frequency of storm events in the first decadeofthe21stCenturyisprobablycyclical,asmuchrelatedtovariationsinElNinocyclesandwind shearastoglobalwarming(Donnelly&Woodruff.2007;Nyberg,etal.,2007). 345
Recentdynamicalmodelling(Knutsonetal.2008;Vecchi&Soden2007)suggeststhatthefrequenciesof Atlantichurricanesandtropicalstormsmayevenbereducedbytheendofthiscentury,althoughnear stormrainfallratesshouldincreasesubstantiallyaswellastheincidenceofveryintensestorms.Forthe purposesofindicatingthelikelyfutureeffectsofhurricanesontheJamaicancoastline,itwaschosento usedatafromreturnperiodmodellingbasedonfrequenciesatthetimeoftheassessment,unchanged, whenexaminingtheeffectsoffutureseverecyclonicweatherevents. Flooding Flooding in the coastal zone can arise from severe weather events, such as hurricanes, that result in storm surges and flooding from the sea, as well as intense rainfall that may result in riverine floods, debrisfloods,orflowsalongcoastalgullies.Intheworstcasescenario,floodingfromtheseasurgeand runupfromaseverehurricane,addedtoahighspringtide,coincideswithextremerainfallresultingin riverineandgullyflooding.Thesurgeandtidecausesbackupoftheriverineflood.Overthelongterm, sealevel rise will lead to gradual inundation of very lowlying areas, either from the sea or from the accompanying rise in the groundwater table, but such effects will tend to be masked by the consequencesoffloodingfromsevereweatherimpacts. Rare events such as seismic sea waves (tsunami) will also inundate the coastline to varying extents, dependingontheenergyleveloftheevent.Whiletsunamisarenotdirectlyrelatedtoclimatechange, thefloodingeffectswillbecomemoresevereassealevelrises.TsunamieventsintheJamaicanregion arediscussedinAhmad(1998),Robinsonetal.(2005a,2005b),Landeretal.(2002).Noreliablereturn periodestimatesarepossiblefortsunami,butareviewofthehistoricalrecordforJamaicasuggeststhat tsunami have resulted from local seismic events and submarine slides rather than from more distant seismicandvolcanicevents.Thismeansthatwarningtimesarelikelytobeveryshort,ontheorderof10 minutesorless.ThesetimesareshorterthancanbetransmittedbythecurrentCaribbeanTsunamiEarly WarningSystem. 4.5.3 ResponsesoftheCoastalZone CoastalErosion/Recession Beaches Shorelineretreatalongsandybeachesiscausedbyvariousphysicalshorelineprocesses.Becauseofthe complexity of the variables there is considerable controversy over the kinds of changes that will take placeassealevelrises(Gutierrezetal.,2007).Overshorttimescales,stormsareprobablythedominant factor(Zhangetal.,2002).Overlongertimescales,variationinsandsupply,thegeologicalsettingand sealevelrisebecomeimportant(Zhangetal.,2002;Pilkey&Cooper,2004).Wherethereisanadequate supplyofsediment,abeachwillchangeitspositioninspaceassealevelrises,migratingupwardsand inland. Verticalincisionoccurs(i.e.,sealevelcontinuestorisebutnoshorelineretreattakesplace)whenthe beachisconstrained,eitherbyrockyoutcropsorbyseawallsandotheranthropogenicstructures,and an equilibrium profile can no longer be maintained further inland. If there is no development, the naturalprogressionofsealevelrisewouldresultinthebeachsystemincrementallytransgressingover thesubaerialpartofthecoastalzone.However,thepresenceofseawalls,highwaysandothercoastal 346
structures will prevent this, and lead to increased vertical incision as hardened structures proliferate. Thenaturalerosionof thebeachregionceases,causingsand starvationtothebeach profile.This will increaseinseverityunlessfreshsuppliesofsandareavailablefromnearshoreorriverinesources.Even if appreciable longshore drift takes place to supply new beach materials, the reduction in the availabilityoferodibleshorelinedepositswilllikelystillleadtoprogressivelossofbeaches. SedimentsupplyisdifferentforthetwomainkindsofsandbeachesinJamaica: Forsiliciclastic(darksand)beachessuchasthoseatSt.MargaretsBayandPortmore,sediment is supplied via transport through river systems, usually during flood events, from the islands interior. Supplies necessary for the natural maintenance of such beaches depend on regular suppliesfromthehinterland.Thesecanbereducedduringperiodsofdroughtorbyexcessive removalofsandfromtheriverbedbysandmining.Thismaybecounterbalancedbyincreased suppliesovertimeifdeforestationleadstoacceleratedsoilerosionintheinterior. For carbonate (white sand) beaches such as those at Long Bay, Negril, and much of the St. James coastline, sand supplies are sourced from skeletal material manufactured by marine organismslivinginthereefandbackreefareas,mainlycalcareousalgae,corals,andsymbiont bearingforaminifera,togetherwithechinoidsandmolluscs.Themaintenanceofahealthynear shoremarineenvironmentisessentialforsuppliestocontinue,ascarbonatesandgrainshavea muchshorterlifespanthanthesiliclasticgrainsofdarksandbeaches,anddegradetomudfrom abrasion and chemical solution. The recent deterioration of Jamaican reefs systems (Hughes, 1994,seesectiononcorals)threatenstoseverelycurtailcarbonatesandsuppliesatatimewhen sealevelriseisbecomingmoreevident. Predicting Beach Changes. Two methods are in widespread use in attempting to predict the rate at which a shoreline will retreat in the future, whether due to sealevel rise or to other shoreline processes.Thefirstusestheevidenceofpastshorelinepositionsandsealevelstoestimatethepossible locationsoffutureshorelines(Crowelletal,1999;Fletcheretal.,2003;Figure4.27).Theseconduses the socalled Bruun Rule to calculate the positions of future shorelines, based on the concept that eachparticularbeachstrivestomaintaintheshapeofitsequilibriumprofileassealevelrises(Masselink & Hughes, 2003). Both methods have their critics as well as their supporters (Dubois, 1975; Pilkey & Cooper,2004).
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Figure4.27:UsingPastShorelinePositionstoPredicttheFutureatLongBay,Negril(197103)
MeanannualratesofshorelinechangeatLongBay,Negril,over32yearsfrom197103plottedforeachofasetof 67measuredshorelineprofiles.Positivenumbersindicatenetaccretion;negativenumbersnetrecession.Notethe erosion hot spots between beach profiles 26 to 38 and 45 to 55. Profile 1 is at southern end, profile 67 is at northernendofLongBay.
Sand loss to the system. In a study carried out in the Virgin Islands (Hubbard, 1992), the passage of HurricaneHugoonSeptember17,1989,overSt.Croix,overashelfdominatedbywhitesand,generated wave heights of 67m and caused wholesale flushing of sand from shelf edge areas into deep water. Eleventimestheamountofsedimentasisusuallymovedinfairweatherwastransported.Thevolume of sediment removed from the Salt River submarine canyon was approximately equivalent to the amountofsedimentthatwouldhavebuiltupinahundredyears.Thestormsurgewasonly1.01.5m because of the narrow island shelf in this area. Similar losses, especially of the increasingly hard to replacecarbonatesand,arelikelytooccuralongthecoastslinedwithcarbonatebeachsand. Geological evidence, in the form of debris fans at the foot of reef complexes, in water too deep for naturalrecoverytotakeplace,indicatesthatthisishappeningonacontinuedbasis. CliffsandRockyCoasts MostofJamaicascoastlinesarecutinlimestonecliffs;mostcommonlylimestonegeneratedwithinthe past half million years as former coral reef systems, now elevated above sealevel. The most recently formedsystemswerebuiltabout130,000yearsago.Cliffscutinotherkindsofrock,mainlysandstone, conglomerates and volcanic rocks, are located along the northeast coast between Port Maria and Annotto Bay, along parts of the coast of Hanover Parish, and at Black Hill in Portland Parish. These coastlines are formed of rocks that are for the most part well lithified. However, in fracture zones associatedwithfaulting,theserocksarepronetosolutionalongjoints(limestone)andshattering,giving risetocoastalrockfallsandlandslides.
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Figure4.28:HousingonCliffaboveExtensiveCliffCollapse,NorthCoastofJamaica
Other cliffs may be cut in softer rocks and unconsolidated or poorly consolidated marls, as at Port Morant,St.ThomasParish,gravels,asalongpartsoftheSt.Jamescoast,andoldsanddunes,asalong the south coast of St. Elizabeth Parish at Great Bay and elsewhere. Cliffs of softer rocks will tend to sufferhigherratesoferosion. Figure4.27:MediumHighCliffCutinEasilyErodibleMarls,SoutheastCoastofJamaica
Recessionratesalongcliffedcoastsareusuallymuchlessthanalongbeaches,butrecessionmayoccur suddenly as a collapse, so that care needs to be taken in building along such coasts. In addition, hurricanescandepositlargequantitiesofrockdebrisovertheclifftopsalongsuchcoasts. Theeffectofsealevelriseonclifflinesmayresultindeepeningofthewateratthecliffbase,allowing higherenergywavestoattackthecliff,possiblyresultinginincreasedratesofrecession.Whetherornot thisoccursdependsontheavailabilityofmarinesedimentstoactasabuffertowaveattack. 349
Wetlands Coastalwetlandsarerecognizedasuniqueandvulnerable,butvaluablehabitats.Bytheirverynature, they lie close to sealevel and exhibit a range of temperature and salinity variation, from salinities approachingthatoftheopenoceantofreshwater,duetothevaryinginfluencesoftidesanddrainage fromtheinterior.Theyarewidelyrecognizedtobeoneofthemostproductiveecosystems,aswellas bufferingtheeffectsofinundationfromoceansurgesduetohurricanes.Mostwetlandsarelessthan onemetreabovesealevel.Theparticularproblemsofwetlandshavebeendescribedanddiscussedin theNRCACoastalAtlasandCoastalManual(NRCA,1997a,1997b). Thecontinuedexistenceofcoastalwetlandsdependsonmaintainingadelicatebalancebetweensea level change, vertical accretion, and subsidence. Vertical accretion is attained partly by the influx of, usually, fine grained sediments from riverine floods, or sand deposited in the coastal margin of the wetland from surges, and partly through the growth and decomposition of the wetland vegetation. Subsidence results from the compaction of the decomposed organic material (to form peat) and any accompanying clay, possibly also through tectonic adjustments of the region. In Jamaica, which is dominatedbyamicrotidalenvironment,thesmallrangeofthetidetendstopromoterelativelystable boundaryconditionswithinthewetland.Thusthemoresalinepartsofthewetlandwillbedominatedby mangroves,whilethemoreinterior,freshwaterpartswillgrowmixedforestandsawgrass.Erosionby stormimpactsiswidespreadandrecoverygenerallysloworabsent. Wetlandsinparticulararethreatenedbyacceleratingsealevelrise.Supratidalfloodingcausessalinity changesaffectingthewetlandvegetationandmayadverselyaffectspawningfishstockswhichgrowin wetland areas. Most wetlands will shrink and eventually disappear unless the rate of sedimentation withinthewetlandcankeeppacewithsealevelrise. Figure4.30: WetlandErosioninSoutheastJamaicaFollowingPassage ofHurricaneDean(August2007)
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Coralreefs Jamaicancoralreefs,likemostothersintheCaribbean,haveundergonedrasticchangesoverthepast 30yearsfromincreasesinhurricaneactivity(Goreau,1959,Woodley,1992)andbiologicalcatastrophes declinedfrom50percentormorecoverto12percent.Themortalityprincipallyresultedfrom(Hughes, 1994).Reefcoralssufferedcatastrophicmortalityinthe1980s,sothatlivecoralabundanceovergrowth ofthecoralsbyfleshyalgae,whichhadpreviouslybeencontrolledbytheabundantechinoidDiadema. AfteradiseasevirtuallywipedoutDiademain198384,fleshyalgaeproliferated,asotherherbivores, particularlyfishspecies,hadalreadybeendecimatedbyoverfishing(Jackson,2001).Additionalfactors influencing the reduction in coral populations have been increasing frequency of coral disease and bleachingevents,probablyresultingfromunusuallyhighseasurfacetemperatures(Goreauetal.1992; Hughes,1994;Jackson,2001).AlongthenorthcoastofJamaicatheseeventswereexacerbatedbythe previous passage, close offshore, of Hurricane Allen in 1980, which caused considerable mechanical damagetothereefsystems,particularlyaffectingspeciesofAcropora(Woodley,1992).Minorrecovery ofcoralpopulationshastakenplaceinsomelocalities(DSilvaetal.inprep?). It has also been suggested that the continued dominance of fleshy macroalgae may be influenced by increasingnutrientenrichmentincoastalwatersfromrunoff(Lapointe,1997;seealsoMutti&Hallock, 2003)butthisremainsacontroversialtopic.Theeffectofincreasedacidityonreefcoralswillprobably be negative as calcification in many reefbuilding species will be reduced. The additional effect of increasing sea surface temperatures will lead to added stress on this biota with probable increased bleaching events, but the net results are difficult to predict. Reduced calcification may result in less robustskeletalstructures,moreeasilydamagedbystorms(Guinotte&Fabry,2008).Increasedacidity will probably increase biomass and productivity for seagrasses (Guinotte & Fabry, 2008) so that sea grasshabitatsmayexpand. Withrisingsealevel,theincreasedstressesonthereefsystemswillprobablyleadtoareductioninthe verticalgrowthrateasawholesothatthewaterwillbecomedeeperoverthereefcrestzoneleadingto a diminution of the protection it offers to future storm waves. This trend could be well advanced by 2050. SalineIntrusion Salineintrusionwillincreasewithsealevelrisebuttheeffectsofsuchanincreasearelikelytobesmall. SalineintrusionisalreadyamajorfactorinsomepartsofJamaicaduetooverpumpingofgroundwater wells.InthestudylocalitiesusedforthisV&Aassessment,watersupplieswerenotdrawnfromwells sitednearthecoast,butfromriversystems.Watersuppliesaremorelikelytobeaffectedbydroughtas populationsincreaseintothefuture. Anthropogenicfactors Althoughenvironmentalstressestocoralreefsandothercoastalecosystemsarebothnatural(i.e.,not directlyrelatedtohumanactivities)andanthropogenicinorigin,humanactivitiesconsistentlyamplify the impacts of naturally occurring stresses such as the passage of hurricanes and rising sea surface temperatures(Hallocketal.2004).Forexample,theimpactofanaturaleventsuchasahurricaneon coastal ecosystems is greatly and progressively amplified through time by deforestation, agriculture runoff,andcoastaldevelopmentleadingtoincreasedpopulationpressuresonthecoastline. 351
Themainanthropogenicstressesonthecoastalzone,notdirectlyrelatedtoclimatechange,arisefrom populationincreaseandmigrationtothecoastalzone,leadingto: Informalsettlements(squatting); Increased chemical pollution of coastal aquifers and the nearshore area from sewage and agriculturalrunoff; Increasing proliferation of hardened engineering structures along the coastline, leading to progressivebeacherosion; Insufficientplanningandsitingofcriticalfacilities,overburdenedbypopulationpressures;and Privateownershipofcoastallandwhichrestrictspublicaccesstothecoastline. ThelongtermgoalsofIntegratedCoastalZoneManagementforconservationofcoastalresourcesand sustainable development are often incompatible with the desire for a shortterm economic gain by interestsinthetouristandotherindustries. 4.5.4 V&ACaseStudies Fiveareaswereselectedforcasestudiesbasedonavarietyoffeatureswhich,collectively,characterize muchoftheJamaicancoastline.Theyare: St.MargaretsBay,Portland SangsterAirporttoRoseHall,St.James. LongBay,Negril,Hanover&Westmoreland WestEndtoLittleBay,Westmoreland Portmore,St.Catherine ThelocationsareindicatedonFigure4.31. Figure4.31:LocationsofCoastalZoneV&AAssessmentsinJamaica
1.StMargaretsBay,Portland ThesettlementofSt.MargaretsBayissituatedatthemouthofoneofJamaicaslargestrivers,theRio Grande.Theriveristhesourceofsedimentsforthebeachesoftheadjacentcoastlineandacauseof
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riverine flooding which, on many occasions, coincides with intense tropical storm activity. The Rio GrandeexperiencessomeofthemostfrequentlyrecurringfloodeventsinJamaica. Connections with the rest of Jamaica are limited, principally via the coast road, currently under improvement as part of the North Coast Highway project. A beach monitoring programme has been maintainedtheresincetheendof2003bytheMarineGeologyUnit. TheSt.MargaretsBayareahasbeenundergoingperiodicboutsofcoastalerosionsinceHurricaneAllen in1980.Theerosionhasplacedbeachfrontresidencesinjeopardy,withatleastonehomehavinglosta roomtothesea.Thecoastlinehasatendencytoretreatandprogradeseasonally.Thepassageofstorms has retarded the recovery of the beach after major erosive events. The community is also subject to floodingfromtheRioGrandefedswampwhichliesbehindthevillage.Thesefloodeventsoccurafter heavy rains when water from the swamp floods homes and the main thoroughfare. During storms, floodwaterswhichusuallyfindtheirescapetothebeacharebackedupbystormsurgecuttingthemain coastalhighway(currentlyunderreconstruction). Figure4.32:LocationMapofSt.MargaretsBay
Source:ReprintedfromRobinsonetal.,2003
ThecommunityofSt.MargaretsBayissituatedalongalowlying,embayedcoastlineimmediatelywest ofthemouthoftheRioGrandeinPortlandParish.Housingisstrungoutonbothsidesofthemainnorth coast road (Robinsonet al., 2003; Roweet al., 2003). The area includes in afourkilometre stretch of coastline extending from Downers Bluff in the east to Welsh Womans Point in the west. The area includestheestuaryoftheRioGrandeandasmallwetlandbehindthecoastroad. Immediately west of the estuary (numbered 5 on Figure 4.32), the beach fronting much of the settlementofSt.MargaretsBayisthemostmobileinthebay,showingsignificant,alternatingphasesof
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erosion and accretion. During 2004 and early 2005, several profiles were established and monitored alongthissectionofthecoastline,andoneofthesecontinuestobemonitored. The wetland behind the eastern part of St. Margarets Bay settlement (numbered 8 on Figure 4.32) becomesinundatedduringfloodeventsintheRioGrandeValleyandfromheavyrainfalleventsatthe coast when water and debris floods occur in the coastal gullies. The flooding is exacerbated by the overgrown and blocked drainage designed to exit to the sea at the mouth of the Rio Grande The flooding frequently extends over the main coast road (now in course of reconstruction). When combinedwithstormyseaconditionsmanymembersofthecommunitybecomeisolated. Over most of the year wave trains travel from the northeast, but during the winter months they frequentlyoriginatefromthenorthwest,asaresultofnorthers.Asurveyoftheislandshelfwascarried outbytheMarineGeologyUnitearlyin2004.Theshelfisverynarrowoppositethesettlement,only200 to400metresinwidth.Theshelfedgebreaksatabout12mdepth.Toseaward,theseafloorsteepens sharplytodepthsinexcessof1000m.Thetoppartofwhatmaybeasubmarinecanyon(Robinsonetal., 2004)appearstobepresentjustnortheastofthemouthoftheriver.Baysedimentsaredominatedby mud. SedimentsformingthebeachesoftheSt.MargaretsBayareaarederivedfromtwosources.Byfarthe most important is the sediment discharge of the Rio Grande. A minor secondary source comes from carbonatesedimentproductionwithinthereefareasattheeasternandwesternextremitiesofthebay. Vulnerability The main hazards affecting the community of St. Margarets Bay are from wave and surge activity causedbytropicalcyclonesystemsandnorthers,andriverinefloodingfromtheRioGrande,and,toa lesserextent,fromlocallyintenserainfall. ThesectionofSt.MargaretsBayimmediatelytothewestofthemouthoftheRioGrandeisparticularly vulnerabletoshorelinechanges.Whilefloodeventsintheriversupplycoarsesandandcobblestothe beach area, riverine flooding causes water levels to rise in the wetland and overflow the road, inundatingpropertyonbothsidesoftheroad.Mostofthecobblebeachbetweentheriverandtheold groynesissusceptibletoperiodicerosionandrecovery(erosionhasdominated) frompassingtropical storm systems and from winter northers. Net shoreline changes along this segment of the coast are derived from comparison of aerial photographs taken in 1941 and 1992 and are shown in Error! Referencesourcenotfound.. Along the stretch of coast fronting the airport erosion losses have been small, but the passage of HurricaneAllenin1980causedinundationoftheeasternendoftheairportrunway(WilmotSimpson, 1980).Atthenorthernend,theduneswerealsooverriddenbywavesandsurgefromHurricaneAllen.
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Figure4.33:VariationsinShorelinePosition,St.MargaretsBay(1941and1992)
Socioeconomicassessment St.MargaretsBay,withapopulationof697(STATIN,2003),isafishingcommunityimmediatelywestof the mouth of the Rio Grande in Portland Parish. Residential and small businesses (grocery, tailor, hairdressers,etc.),aswellasafewlargercommercialenterprises(woodwork,mechanic,blockmaking, etc.),arestrungoutonbothsidesofthemainroad.SummersetFallsandKenJonesaerodromearethe onlytwolargeentitiesintheareaprovidingeconomicstabilitytothecommunity. Thesingleroadthroughthecommunityistheonlycorridoronwhichresidentsdependfortransportof goodsandservicesanditistheonlyevacuationroutetothesingleshelterlocatedattheSt.Margarets BAYallageschool.TheweakestpointalongthiscorridoristhebridgeacrosstheRioGrandewhichin 2004 was damaged by flood waters related to Hurricane Ivan and impassable to vehicular traffic. The vulnerabilityofothersectionsoftheroadtoflooding(Beaches,2006)anderosionisevidencedbythe remains of sections of the railway line which ran along the coast, north of the main road, and was damaged in 1980 from storm wave impact and erosion. The complete absence of railway lines along sections of the bay is an indicator that the main road is also at risk. This would have very serious consequencesforresidentsaswellasthenationasthisisoneofonlytworoutestotheeasternpartof theisland. The limited economic opportunities and repeated impact on the area by flooding and loss of land to coastalerosion(Beaches,2006)isreflectedinthedecreaseinpopulationsizeby65percentover1991 01 (PIOJ, personal communication). Although the construction of the north coast highway to Port Antoniopromisesimprovedtransportationaccess,thedownscalingofotheroperationsparticularlyair travelwillprobablyleadtocontinuedeconomicdeclineinthecommunity.
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2.SangsterAirporttoRoseHall,StJames ThenorthernSt.JamescoastlinefromSangsterInternationalAirportasfareastasRoseHallisaregion withmaturehotelandtouristindustrialdevelopmentandcontinuingnewdevelopments.Thehotelsand guesthousesalongthecoastarebackedbylargeplannedandunplannedsettlements,suchasIronshore andBarrettTown. Thephysiographyofthisregionconsistsofanarrowcoastalplain,behindwhichthelandrisessteeplyto summitsof250300mabout3.5kmsouthofthecoastline.Thebackcoasthillsaredrainedbyanumber ofsteepgullies.Thecoastalplainalonghereformsalowlyingplatformofvariableheight.Aseriesof small pocket beaches is interspersed with the rocks of the limestone platform and outcrops of gravel fromthegullies.Thecoastisprotectedoffshorebyamoreorlesscontinuousreef,shelteringalagoon between the reef and the coast, although in many places the reef crest is close inshore. The reef is incompletely developed opposite Mahoe Bay. The lower courses of the larger gullies transit and are incisedintoaseriesofdebrisfans,whichareevidentlytheresultofformersedimentdepositionfrom thegullies.Thegulliesevidentlycarrystormwateranddebrisfromtimetotimeasisevidencedbythe moderndebrisfandepositsgrowingatsomeofthegullyexitstothecoast. Allalongthenorthcoast,therocksformingthelimestoneterraceinthecoastalplain arefaultedand warpedtovaryingdegrees,indicativeofseismicactivitycontinuingtothepresentday(Horsfield,1972). Thisterracewasformedonlyabout130,000yearsago,sothattheregionasawholemustbeconsidered asstillseismicallyactive.Faultingaffectingmorerecentunconsolidatedorsemiconsolidatedsediments isdifficulttoidentify,butthecontinuedoccurrenceofearthquakesiswelldocumented(e.g.Robinsonet al.,1960).ThemostrecentlargelocalearthquakewasthatofMarch1,1957,withanepicentrelocated near Montego Bay (Robinson et al., 1960). There is no evidence that any earthquakes have caused relativechangesinsealandlevels. Vulnerability Thecoastissusceptibletosignificantstormsurge(SWIL,1999)andisalsoacoastvulnerabletotsunami with very short leadtime warning periods. Other hazards include the possibility of extreme rainfall events generating debris flows in the numerous steep gullies and rivers which descend to the coast. Thesehavebeenrecordedinthepast(ODPEMcatalogue). Thefringing/barrierreefsalongtheSt.Jamescoastarerelativelycloseinshoreinthecentralpartofthe coastlinewithaccompanyingnarrowlagoons.Assuch,theavailabilityofanadequatenaturalsupplyof carbonatesandmaybecompromised.Withtheriseofseasurfacetemperaturesandincreasingacidity oftheoceans,andwithlikelysignificantincreasesinpollutedrunofffromtheisland,itislikelythatthe existing carbonate production rates will decline quite steeply. Beaches will probably require periodic nourishment,startingwithinthenextcoupleofdecades,tocontinueaspartofthetouristpackage. Socioeconomicassessment SangstersInternationalAirportistheleadingtourismgatewaytoJamaica.Theairportislocatedonthe northwest coast amid a wide range of hotel and resort facilities and other commercial entities. The airportrunwayispartiallyboundedtothenorthbyaswampknowasNorthPondsandliessouthofKent Avenue,thecoastparallelroad. 356
Thiswesternsectionofcoastlineisdominatedbysmallcommercialbusinessincludingrestaurants,bars, and groceries and a small fishing village. Much of the infrastructure in the area consists of wooden houses. Large hotels with capacities of over 250 persons increase in numbers towards the east and dominatemuchofthenorthcoastbetweenSangsterInternationalAirportandRoseHall.Manyofthese hotels report beach erosion episodes, coastline retreat, and storm surge inundation as reoccurring negativeimpactsduetohurricanesandstorms.Thereisneedfordiversificationofindustryawayfrom the focus on tourism, which is subject to external factors largely beyond the islands control. Light industryandagroindustrialactivitiescouldbeencouragedforthemediumandlongterm. 3.LongBay,Negril,Hanover,andWestmoreland TheresortareaofLongBay,Negril,isconfinedtoanarrowstripoflowlyingland(mainlysand)between theseaandthewetlandofNegrilMorass,formingabarrierbeachsystemoverwhichelevationsare2m or less above sealevel (Marine Geology Unit, 2008). Long Bay straddles the boundary between the parishesofHanoverandWestmoreland.Themorassisalow,moreorlesslevelwetlandunderlainby peat,upto12mthickinplaces.Theloadbearingcapacityofpeatdepositsforconstructionpurposesis essentially zero, thus limiting building expansion into the morass area and restricting further developmenttothecoastalstrip. The barrier beach system at Long Bay is a relatively narrow complex, consisting of unconsolidated to poorly consolidated carbonate sand overlying either limestone bedrock or peat deposits at depth (Hendry,1982;Mitchelletal.,2002).Recentmeasurementsofelevationsoverthebarrierindicatethat heights above sealevel range from approximately 2m in the northern part to about 1.5m or less towardsthesouthernend(MGU,2008).Theactivebeachismoreorlesscontinuousfromendtoendof thebay,exceptforapointinthemiddleoftheUDCBeachPark,whererockyoutcropsareexposedin theforeshore. Figure4.34: ViewLookingNorthAlongLongBay,Negril
White sand beach with hotel buildings behind, on the 1.5m high barrier system. Great Morass is behindthetrees.ImagecourtesyofN.Butterfield. 357
The morass behind the barrier beach system is a mainly freshwater wetland, dominated by sawgrass (Cladium). Elevations over the morass do not exceed 23m near its eastern margin, and most of the regionisatornearsealevel.Itisunderlainforthemostpartbypeatofvaryingthickness,upto12min places near the beach system (Robinson, 1983, appendix 1). The morass formed as a wetland about 8,000yearsagoinamarinetobrackishenvironmentasthepostglacialsealevelrisefloodedtheregion, withanextensivemangrove(Rhizophora)flora.Itbecameincreasinglyfreshwaterthroughtimeasthe barrierbeachdevelopedinfrontofitandspringsatthefootofthelimestonehillstotheeastbecame themainsourceofwater(Digerfeldt&Hendry,1987).Untilthe1950s,drainagewasviatheSouthNegril RiverandthenowlargelydefunctMiddleRiverwhichexitedintothemiddleofLongBay. In the late 1950s, a canal was constructed along the east and north side of the morass as part of a drainageschemetoimprovetheagriculturalpotentialofthearea.Thiscutoffthesupplyoffreshwater to the wetland, reducing the flow of the Middle River, lowering the water table, and leading to an increased growth of forest and bush, fed by rainfall. Increased human encroachment into the morass sincethe1950shasincludedcuttingofforestvegetation,particularlythestandsofroyalpalmsatthe southern end of the wetland, and widespread cultivation of market garden crops and marijuana (Cannabis)alongtheeasternmargin(Bjork,1983).Thedrainageandagriculturalpracticeshaveledto subsidence of parts of the wetland, grossly reducing the effectiveness of the main canal as a drain. Within the canal, tidal effects and saline encroachment have led to the development of mangrove standsalongthenorthernextensionofthecanal. Vulnerability Theprincipalnaturalhazardisfromsurgesgeneratedbysevereweatherconditions,butbeachchanges are an ongoing feature for several parts of Long Bay. Erosion tends to be greatest during the winter monthswhenthebayisvulnerabletowavetrainscomingfromthenorthwestandwestasaresultof northers (e.g. SWIL, 2007). The low elevations along the barrier system will lead to extensive marine inundationanderosionovertime(MGU,2008).Forexample,inthehotspotidentifiedatConchHill andthenorthernboundaryofSweptAwayError!Referencesourcenotfound.,andusing2003asthe starting point, preliminary calculations suggest cumulative shoreline retreat to average 47m by 2008 (thisyear),1015mby2015,2641mby2030,and5194mby2050.EstimatesusingtheBruunRulegive somewhatlowervalues.Actualvaluesmeasuredbyusforthisperiodaveragedabout3m. Socioeconomicassessment Atthepresentday,theentireeffortatNegrilisdevotedtolocalandforeigntouristsandholidayrentals. AsforSt.James,diversificationbeyondthefocusontourismisneeded,particularlyinthedirectionof ecotourism,usingpartsofthewetlandandmountainstothesouthandeast.Itshouldberecalledthat Negrilmorasscontainsthickpeatdepositsextensiveenoughtobeusedinextremisforelectricpower generation(Robinson,1983). 4. WestEndtoLittleBay,Westmoreland This coastline is characterized by low coastal cliffs and is currently experiencing development at an accelerated rate. Communities and buildings suffered considerable damage from the passage of HurricaneIvanin2004,fromEmilyandWilmain2005,andfromDeanin2007(Figure4.35).Muchofthe damage resulted from large blocks and boulders being torn from the cliff face and hurled ashore
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(Robinsonetal.,2006).Sealevelrisewilllowertheclifftoprelativetosealevel,andenhancetheability ofextremewaveeventstodamagetheclifftopcommunities. Figure4.35: BouldersatBrighton,nearLittleBay,StrewnOverAccessPathways asResultofPassageofHurricaneIvan(2004)
ThecoastlineofthispartofJamaicaisunusuallystraight,withastraight,narrowislandshelf,strongly suggesting it is associated with a shoreparallel fault system. This probability is reinforced by the fact that the rocks exposed at the coastline are extensively fractured. Although one or two small pocket beaches have developed, for the most part, the coast consists of a low jagged cliff without beaches, formingthefrontedgeofacoastalplatformconsistingofUpperPleistocene(c.130,000yearold)reef and shelf limestone, varying in elevation between about 1m and 4m above sealevel at the shore, to about10mattherearoftheplatform.Theareaisbackedbyasteepescarpment,theremainsofanold seacliff(Cant,1973).Thereisnosurfacedrainage. Vulnerability Thedebrisalongtheshorelinehasbeenemplacedbygiant waveimpacts;the ridgeshavemostlikely resultedfromtheprogressiveemplacementandmovement,throughoutthepastfourorfivemillennia, ofstormand/ortsunamigenerateddebrisovertheplatformintozoneswheretheenergylevelofthe impactingwavesorsurgeisreduced.Clastsaccumulate,evolvingintoridgesthatincreasinglyprovidea barriertothefurtherincursionofdebrisinland.Incursionisprobablyfurtherinhibitedbytheincreased roughnessoftheterrain,providedbytheforestcover,stillpresentinundevelopedsectionsofthecoast. Thelargeisolatedbouldersaretornofffromtheplatformbedrockandareeitherintransittowardsthe ridgedeposits,orfollowinginitialemplacementontheplatform,aretoobigtobemovedsubsequently by hurricanegenerated waves. In the latter case, initial emplacement may be from tsunamis. The perchedbeachdepositsareessentiallyephemeral,formedduringthepassageofstorms,andmodified ordestroyedbylaterwaveevents(Robinsonetal.,2008).
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Thefracturednatureoftherocksformingthecoastalcliffmakesthiscoastlineparticularlysusceptibleto erosion bydestructive storm waves and surges. During a storm event, such asthe recent passages of hurricanesIvan(2004)andDean(2007),bouldersuptoseveraltensoftonnesmassarebrokenoffthe cliff face and carried across the platform for varying distances with potential for damaging buildings, whilebouldersalreadyontheplatformmaybecarriedfurtherinland.Otherbouldersgetbrokenoffand droppedintotheseaatthefootofthecliff,ormaybesuckedouttoseabythebackwashofthewaves, perhapstobebroughtashoresubsequentlyduringalaterstorm. Forcoastalmanagementpractices,thepositionofthedebrisridgeisthuscritical,effectivelydelimiting that seaward part of the platform, vulnerable to storm impacts, from the protected area behind the ridge. Destruction of the ridge and clearing of the forest during development projects increases vulnerabilitytostormimpactsofthoseareasoriginallyprotectedbytheridge. Figure4.36: SouthwestCoast,EastofNegrilLighthouse(upperleft),showingfracturedrockyplatform zone without vegetation that is frequently swept by storm waves. Crowded boulders visibleatrightmarkthefrontofthedebrisridge,extendingbehindthegreenhouse
Socioeconomicassessment This coastline is currently experiencing development at an accelerated rate, with significant hotel developmentconcentratedtowardsthewest.TheLittleBayendofthecoastisrelativelyisolatedand still retains a small community largely involved in fishing and agriculture. Although isolated, it is an attractivecoastlineandsomeholidayhomesandsmallhotelshavebeenbuilt.Thereisnodirectaccess totheLittleBayendfromWestEnd.ThemostdirectrouteconnectswiththehighwaybetweenNegril andLittleLondon.Itislikelythattourist/localvacationhomeswillexpandalonghere.
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Communities and buildings suffered considerable damage, including destruction of some 15 houses, fromthepassageofhurricanesin2004,2005,and2007.Theplacingoffuturebuildingsalongthiscoast shouldbeguidedbythepositionofthedebrisridge,whichprovidesprotectionfromstorms. 5.Portmore,St.Catherine Portmoreisacoastalcitywithapopulationofover90,000(asof2001)andwithlandelevationsmostly below10m.Figure4.37showsthegeneraltopographicfeatures.Contourlinesareat1.5m(green);3m (pink); 4.6m (black); and 7.6m (orange). Areas below 1.5m are shaded red; builtup areas are shaded brown. Greater Portmore is situated on lowlying land adjacent to the west side of Kingston Harbour andsurroundingPortHendersonHill,whichrisesabruptlyfromtheplain(Figure4.37).Thehillconsists ofwhitelimestoneoverlyingmetamorphicrocks,seenintinyexposuresonthenorthwestsideofGreen Bay.Onthenorthsideofthehill,marlandsandylimestonebelongingtotheAugustTownFormation (MiocenePlioceneage)aresteeplyinclinedtothenortheast(Coates,1970). Figure4.37:TopographyofPortmoreandApproaches
Greater Portmore itself lies on sand and gravel sediments belonging to the more distal part of the alluvial fan of the Rio Cobre. A seismic traverse carried out south from Spanish Town indicated thicknessesoftheformationuptoabout200m(Makowiecki,1964).Thealluvialfanextendsasfarwest asPortlandBight.TheRioCobreevidentlyflowedintoGalleonHarbouratsometimeinthedistantpast. 361
Closertotheshoreoftheharbour,thesedimentsconsistofrecentdepositsofsand,peatandmud,and areas that originally were salt flats. Before the latter part of the 20th century, the spit ending at Fort Augustawasseparatedfromthemangrovemudandlagoonareatothewestofthespit.Muchofthis areawasfilledinduringtheconstructionofthecityofPortmoreanditsroadconnections.Oldcourses of the Rio Cobre are evident on aerial photographs, before it was confined to its present canalized courseintoHuntsBay. Vulnerability Figure4.37indicatesthoseareasthatarelessthan1.5mabovedatum.Theregionbelow4.6minFigure 4.37 is at the height of the highest storm surge reported historically for Passage Fort (now part of Portmore;ODPEMhistoricalnotes);whiletheareabelow7.6misthezoneusedinthisreporttofocus onplacesthatmightbevulnerabletocoastalhazards.Thehistoricalquotefollows: OnSeptember89,1722,Jamaicawashitbyahurricane,whichbroughtwithitheavystormsurges. PortRoyalandQueenstown(nowPassageFort)weredestroyedbyasurgeof16feet.Asurgealso occurredinKingstonHarbour. A2008investigationofthevulnerabilitytostormsurgewascarriedoutthroughCDERAwithfundsfrom theInterAmericanDevelopmentBank(SWIL,2008);howeverthefinalreportshadnotbeenreleasedat the time of this assessment. The 2008 Smith Warner report succeeds an earlier one on the planned extensionthroughPortmoreofHighway2000(SmithWarner,2000).Anothervulnerabilityreportbeing prepared by the Mines and Geology Division and the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Managementisalsointhereviewstage,fundedbytheUNDP(2008).Thereisneedtoevaluatethese resultsinconjunctionwithsimultaneousfloodingfromtheRioCobreandlocalintenserainfall, andin comparisonwithhistoricalrecordsofstormsurgeactivityintheKingstonMetropolitanArea. AlthoughthemunicipalareaofPortmoreisnotlikelytobesusceptibletosubsidenceexcept,perhaps alongtheextremecoastlineareathesamecannotbesaidforsomeoftheevacuationroutes.Thereis astrongpossibilitythatthewetlandnorthofPortmoreand extending acrossthe Mandela Highway is subsiding due to peaty sediment compaction and sediment starvation resulting from the diversion of SandyGullyintoHuntsBayandtrainingoftheRioCobre,althoughnostudieshavebeenundertaken.
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Figure4.38:PortmoreEvacuationRoutesandShelters.Areabelow1.5mshadedpink.
The Robertson map of 1804 shows anarea of wetland (morass)extending from thenorthside ofthe thencourseoftheRioCobreasfarnorthasthelimestonefoothillsnorthwestofKingston(Figure4.39). Kingstons Sandy Gully system used to drain into the eastern part of this wetland. As the 1804 map indicates,thisregionliesbetweennowinactivesectionsofthealluvialfansoftheLiguaneaPlaintothe eastandtheRioCobretothewest.Thecontinuedsedimentinfillbetweenthetwofanswasatthattime drivenbytherunofffromthedegradingoftheLiguaneafan,bringingrelativelycoarsesedimentstothe region, deposition of relatively coarse sediments from the Rio Cobre, and muddy sediments being depositedbytheFreshandDuhaneyRivers(Robertson,1804)accompaniedbyextensivedevelopment ofmangroveandotherwetlandvegetation.
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Figure4.39: MapofthePassageFortandHuntsBayarea,partofRobertsonMAP oftheCountyofSurrey,1804
Source:Robertston,1804.ReproducedwithpermissionoftheNationalLibrary
The Sandy Gully and Rio Cobre sediment supplies have now been diverted into Hunts Bay, thus deprivingtheregionofsedimentsthatwouldassistinreducingsubsidence.Boringsmadeinthe19thand 20th centuriesinconnectionwiththerailway,andmorerecentboringsdrilledfortheextensionofthe portofKingston,indicatesignificantlayersofpeatandmudsurroundingHuntsBay.Thewholeregion betweenthetwoalluvialfanshasbeeninfilledingeologicallyrecenttimesandthesedimentsthereare likely to be unconsolidated and with high interstitial water contents. Compaction, with accompanying ongoingsubsidenceisthusverylikely. Socioeconomicassessment The city of Portmore, population 156,469 (STATIN, 2003), is located on low lying marsh lands and is boundedtotheeastbytwowaterbodiestheKingstonHarbourandHuntsBay.ThecommunityofPort Henderson is located along this eastern coastline and is the location of Jamaicas only female penal institution, Fort Augusta. Several small individually operated businesses, primarily restaurants, bars, amusement venues and small hotels, are strung along both sides of the main road. A small informal fishingcommunityhasdevelopedalongthecoastconsistingofprimarilyofwoodenstructures.Manyof theseweredestroyedbystormsurgegeneratedbyHurricaneDeanin2007. ThesingleroadthroughthePortHendersoncommunityistheonlycorridoronwhichresidentsdepend fortransportofgoodsandservicesandservesastheonlyevacuationrouteforthe839persons(PIOJ personal communication) who reside in the area. The elevation, less than 5ft above sea level, and 364
position of the road, bound to the east by Kingston Harbour and to the west by lowlying swamps, exposesittorepeatedinundatedandduringhurricaneeventsandhasbeenblockedbydebrisandsand depositsmakingitimpassable.Partialand/orcompletedestructionofbuildingsalongthissectionofthe coastline during storm events highlights the continuous threat that storm surge poses to this community. The quality of water supply is another problem that faces the community of Portmore (pers. comm., WRA2008).
4.5.5 DevelopmentofaCoastalZoneVulnerabilityIndex
Vulnerabilitymaybedefinedasthedegreeoflossordamagethatwouldresultfromtheoccurrenceofa natural phenomenon of given severity. In assessing vulnerability for the purposes of long term developmentandadaptationtosealevelrise,itisappropriatetoapplyanindexofvulnerabilitytoevery segment of the coastline, based on a standardized set of criteria. These criteria may be physical, or socioeconomic, or both. The approach documented here attempts to combine a coastlines susceptibility to sealevel change with its natural ability to adapt to changing conditions. This yields a quantitative result that can be applied in a relative sense as a measure of a coastlines natural vulnerabilitytosealevelriseeffects(Gutierrezetal.,2007).Whilethisapproachallowsdecisionmakers toidentifythosesectorsofthecoastlineathigherrisk,itisnotapredictivetoolforcoastlinechange.
DefininganIndexofVulnerability TheparametersforconstructingtheCoastalVulnerabilityIndex(CVI)usedinthisreportarethesameas thoseusedbytheUSGeologicalSurvey(USGS)forthenationanditsterritories(Table4.32): 1. Geomorphologyandgeology; 2. Historicalshorelinechangerate; 3. Regionalcoastalslope; 4. Relativesealevelchangerate; 5. Meansignificantwaveheight; 6. Meantidalrange. Table4.32:ParametersUsedforCalculatingtheCoastalVulnerabilityIndices
VARIABLES Geomorphology, geology shoreerosion/ accretion(m/yr) coastalslope(%) sealevelchange (mm/yr) meanwaveheight (m) meantiderange (m) VULNERABILITY VERYLOW LOW MODERATE HIGH 1 2 3 4 rockycliffed lowcliffs, beaches, coasts mediumcliffs alluvialplains lagoons >2.0 >14.70 <1.8 <1.1 >6.0 1.0to2.0 14.69to10.90 1.8to2.5 1.1to2.0 4.0to6.0 1.0to1.0 10.89to7.75 2.5to3.0 2.01to2.25 2.0to4.0 1.0to1.0' 7.74to4.60 3.0to3.4 2.26to2.6 1.0to2.0 VERYHIGH 5 sandbeaches, wetlands,coralreefs <2.0 <4.59 >3.4 >2.6 <1.0
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Source:ModifiedfromPendletonetal.,2004
The ranking of data also follows that used by the USGS (e.g. Pendleton et al., 2004). Each variable is assignedavulnerabilityrankingonascaleof1to5basedontheactualnumericalvalue(parameters2 to6)orqualitatively,asameasureoferodibility,forgeomorphologyandgeology(parameter1),based onanassessmentofthecoastalmorphology,beachesorlackthereof,resistanceofrockstoerosion,etc. DerivationofinformationforeachparameterismodifiedfromthatusedbytheUSGSandisasfollows. Geomorphology and geology. Data for geomorphology were obtained from the standard geologicalmapsforeachregion,togetherwithaerialphotographicanalysisandfieldvisits. Historical shoreline change rate: Shoreline erosion/accretion rates were calculated from a comparisonoftheIKONOSimages(2003)withhistoricalaerialphotographsforeachregion.The ratesoferosion/accretionwerederivedfromchangesbetweenthedigitizedshorelinesateach of the case study locations, along transects 1km apart or less, as indicated, and averaged for eachlocality.Becauseofthewidespacingoftransects,theresultingdatamustberegardedas givingaverypreliminaryindicationofrelativevulnerability.Amoredetailedreportonerosion potentialatLongBayisgivenbytheMarineGeologyUnit(2008). Regional coastal slope. Due tothe lack of adequateoffshore and onshoreelevationdata for manyareas,theregionalcoastalslopewasobtainedbymeasuringthedistancefromtheedgeof the island shelf to the 7.6m (25ft) contour line on the topographic maps along the same transectsusedfortheshorelinechangemeasurements.Theelevationdifferenceattheendsof eachtransectdividedbythedistancegavetheaverageslopevalue. Relativesealevelchangerate.Thevalueforrelativesealevelchangeratehadtobeestimated from regional data as Jamaican tide gauges have operated only intermittently. Therefore, an islandwide value was applied for the present day and future scenarios, derived from IPCC projectionsascontainedinTable4.29.Thisvariable(about3mm/yrin2008willbethesamefor eachlocationbutwillhaveanincreasinglyimportantweightingintothefuture. Meansignificantwaveheight.Estimatesofmeansignificantwaveheightwereobtainedfroma variety of sources; including expert opinion and records of moored buoys south and west of JamaicamaintainedbytheNationalDataBuoyCentreandmustberegardedasprovisional.For future projections, the mean significant wave height was taken to be similar to that at the presentday. Meantidalrange.Themeantidalrange wastakenasbeingthesameforalllocationsstudied althoughlocalvariationprobablyexists.Thereisinsufficientdatapresentlyavailabletoindicate whetherornotthepresentrangewillchangeinthefuture. CoastalVulnerabilityIndexResults TheresultingCoastalVulnerabilityIndex(CVI)wasderivedforeachcoastalsegmentstudiedbytaking the square root of the product of the assigned variability value for each parameter and dividing the resultbythenumberofparameters.Thenumberofobservationsistoofewforstatisticalanalysisbut the study areas have been ranked according to the mean values obtained for each location. It is emphasized that the ranking is based on relative vulnerability to long term sealevel rise, not to 366
vulnerability from tropical storm and hurricane events. Notes on the derivation and definition of parametersusedfollow. St. Margarets Bay. Slope values were obtained for five transects, spaced approximately 1km apart.Distancesfromthe7.6mcontourtotheshelfedgewerebasedonbathymetrycarriedout bytheMarineGeologyUnit. St. James coast. Slope values were obtained for 16 transects, 1km apart. The shelf edge was assumed to be approximately 20m deep based on observation of photo images of the reef systems along the coastline and correlation with bathymetry available for Montego Bay. The positionoftheshelfedgewastakenasthelinemarkingthedeepforereefsandtalusdeposits, obtainedfromaerialphotographinspection. LongBay,Negril.Slopevalueswereobtainedforsixtransectstaken1kmapart.Distancestothe shelf edge were based on bathymetry from Digerfeldt & Hendry, 1987, and SWIL, 2007. The valuesobtainedwerethelowestforanyofthesitesexaminedduetothewideexpanseofthe GreatMorassbehindtheLongBaybarrierbeachsystem. West End to Little Bay. Ten transects along the low cliffs typifying this coastline yielded slope valuesbasedonunpublishedbathymetrycarriedoutbytheMarineGeologyUnitandassociates in September 2007. Because of the rocky nature of the coastline, annual erosion rates were regarded as negligible, although rock falls and onshore boulder deposition from the cliff face duringextremewaveeventsarecommon(Roweetal.2009inpress,Robinsonetal.2006). Portmore.AVulnerabilityIndexforPortmorewasnotdetermined,butthephysicalparameters aresimilartothoseofNegril,sothatacomparablyhighindexofvulnerabilitywouldbeassigned tothislocation. Table4.33summarisestheresultsforeachtransectandtherelativerankingintermsofvulnerabilityfor fourlocalities.Notethatthehigherthenumber,themorevulnerableisthelocalitytotheeffectsofsea levelrise.Forthelocalitiesexamined,Negrilratesashighlyvulnerable,St.JamesandSt.MargaretsBay aremoderatelyvulnerable,andWestEndtoHomersCoveisoflowvulnerabilitytosealevelrise.The transectmapsanddetailedcalculationscanbefoundinAppendix4.1.
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Table4.33:CoastalVulnerabilityIndicesforSeaLevelRise.Column7atfarrightshowsrelativeranking offourstudylocationsagainsttheirrespectiveCoastalVulnerabilityIndicesincolumn6. Transect WestEnd StMargarets Negril StJames Relative Ranking Bay 1 5.000 7.500 7.906 7.071 8 Negril 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 MEANS 6.124 6.124 4.472 6.124 5.000 5.000 5.000 5.000 4.472 7.500 6.708 5.477 6.325 7.906 7.906 7.906 7.906 7.906 7.071 7.071 7.906 7.906 7.071 6.124 5.477 6.325 7.071 7.071 6.124 7.071 7.906 6.124 6.325 6.88 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.2 7 6.8 6.6 6.4 6.2 6 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 5

StJames St.Margaret'sBay
5.25
6.81
7.91

WestEnd

VulnerabilitytoTropicalCyclones The probability of storms producing coastal flooding has been modelled for a number of localities in Jamaica, principally through environmental impact analyses carried out for hotel and other tourist oriented developments. Estimates of the effects that sealevel rise might have on return periods for existing structures and elevations are suggested for Sangster International Airport, St. James, and Portmore,St.Catherine,basedonSmithWarnerInternationalLtdmodellingofsurgereturnperiodsfor those localities (SWIL, 1999, 2000). For these projections, it is assumed that the temporal and geographicaldistributionandnumberandintensitiesoffuturehurricaneswillremainthesameasatthe presentday. Alsothewaterelevationsassociatedwiththerespectivereturnperiodsrepresentthestaticsurgewater levels,anddonotincludewaverunup.Additionofwaverunupwouldlikelyadd0.51.5mtothetotal effectofthestormwateronthecoastline,dependingontheslopeoftheshoreregionandintensityof thestorm.ForSangsterInternationalAirport,themostlikelyelevationofsurgewasused(SWIL,1999, table5).ForPortmore,thevaluesusedinSWIL(2000,table2.4)wereused,lessthevalueaddedforsea level rise (0.07m). Approximate future return periods for Sangster International Airport and Portmore areshowninTable4.34.ThegraphicsforthereturnperiodcalculationsareinAppendix4.2.
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Table4.34: ApproximateFutureReturnPeriodsforStormSurgeStaticWaterLevelsthatWouldFlood CurrentElevationsAboveSeaLevelatSangsterInternationalAirportandPortmore Approximatereturnperiods(years)forfloodingthecurrentelevation(IPCC,2007) Location Current SWIL, 2015 2030 2050 0.6m 1.0m Elevations 1999 Sangster 0.5 3.54 3.5 about3 about2 100% 100% International 1 7 about7 about6 about5.5 about2.5 100% Airport 1.5 15 14 12.5 11.5 6.5 3.5 2 100 94 81 56 12 7 Current SWIL, 2015 2030 2050 0.6m 1.0m Elevations 2000 Portmore 0.5 5.5 4.5 4 3.5 100% 100% 1 10 9.5 8.5 7.5 4 100% 1.5 14 13.5 13 12.5 9 5 2 19 18.5 18 17 13 9 Approximatereturnperiods(years)forfloodingthecurrentelevation(Rahmstorf,2007) Location Current SWIL, 2015 2030 2050 Elevations 1999 Sangster 0.5 3.54 3.5 3 1.5 International 1 7 6.5 6 5 Airport 1.5 15.5 14 11.5 9 2 100 92 67 33 Current SWIL, 2015 2030 2050 Elevations 2000 Portmore 0.5 5.5 4.5 3.5 2 1 10 9.5 8.5 6.5 1.5 14.5 13.5 13 11 2 19 18.5 17.5 15.5 DatabasedonempiricalexaminationofmodelledreturnperiodsbySmithWarnerInternationalLtd.for mostlikely staticwaterelevations atSangster InternationalAirport(SWIL, 1999)and Portmore(SWIL, 2000).Waverunupnotincluded. AdditionalwaterlevelelevationsinHuntsBayresultingfromextremerainfalleventswerenotincluded, butareindicatedinTable4.35.
Table4.35:PossibleWaterLevelRiseDueToExtremeRainfallEvents,HuntsBay ReturnPeriods(years) Stormwaterrunoff(m) 25 50 100 Staticwaterlevelcomponents 0.654m 0.845m 1.195m

Source:modifiedfromSWIL2000,table2.10
Intheunlikelysituationinwhicha100yearhurricanesurgecoincideswitha100yearrainfallevent, waterlevelsinHuntsBaycouldrisebyasmuchas3.1munderpresentdayconditions,notincludinga waverunupcomponent.
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4.5.6
AdaptationMeasures
Adaptive measures for coastal zone management are normally classified into three categories (IPCC): retreat,accommodate,protect.Usingamajor,lowlyingcoasthighwayasanexample,theoptionsinthe face ofrisingsealevel are:(1)to relocatethehighwayonhigherground away fromtheocean,(2)to raise the roadbed above the expected elevation of future sealevel rise to accommodate the rise, (3) buildaseawalltoprotectthehighwayatitsexistingelevation. Setbacks The currently available guidelines on setbacks (Town and Country Planning Authority) specify three categoriesofsetbackdistance,basedonshorelineslopecategoriesreferencedtothehighwaterline: Forslopesequaltoorsteeperthan1:1(45degrees),asetbackof7.6m(25ft)isrequired; For slopes between 1:4 and 1:20, the required setback is 15.2m (50 ft), implying, at 1:4, a backshoreelevationof3.8m(12.5ft);andat1:20,abackshoreelevationof0.76m(2.5ft); Forslopeslessthan1:20,therequiredsetbackis30.5m(100ft),implyingabackshoreelevation of1.5m(at1:20)orless. Figure4.40:ExistingRegulationsforDeterminingSetbacksfromHighWaterLine
Source:TownPlanningDepartment
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AsdiscussedbySmithWarnerInternational(inSWIL,1999),thethreecategoriesarenotlinkedtoany schemeofriskfrominundation,aswellasbeinginternallyinconsistent(changeinsetbackat1:20slope, andnoapparentguidelinesforslopesbetween1:1and1:4).Thereisneedforrevisionoftheguidelines so that equal risk is assumed, irrespective of shoreline type, for present day events. Ideally the guidelines should be more sitespecific based on the local characteristics of the coastline, elevation, slope and erodibility, and estimated return periods of surges of a given elevation along the coast of interest. For management purposes at St. Margarets Bay, besides having an all weather coast road in place, furtherbuildingalongthestripbetweenthebeachandmorassshouldbediscouraged. Structuresonrockycoasts Asnotedearlier,destructionofthedebrisridgealongtheWestEndtoLittleBaycoastandclearingof theforestduringdevelopmentprojectsincreasesvulnerabilitytostormimpactsofthoseareasoriginally protected by the ridge. Rising sealevel will reduce the relative height of the low cliff above sealevel thus allowing increased incursion of storm waves. Where the debris ridge is welldeveloped this will probably continue to offer protection to buildings, but where it is poorly developed or destroyed for constructionmaterial,increasedvulnerabilitytostormincursionislikely(Figure4.41). Figure4.41:AHotelBuiltonTopofDebrisRidge,SouthwestCoastOfJamaica. Permanentstructuresinfrontoftheridgeshouldbediscouraged.
Allweatherroads There is need to reengineer sections of several major highways that serve coastal areas in Jamaica. There is limited entry to and exit from the Greater Portmore area, considering the size of the population. Evacuation in the event of an extreme weather event is via three main access roads that 371
includelowlyingandfloodablestretches,especiallythenorthernrouteintoKingstonviatheMandela Highway. As at 2008, prolonged heavy rains flood both the highway and some of the approach roads leading into Portmore. In particular the highway is frequently flooded along the stretch that is below 1.5mabovesealevel. DrainingthewetlandadjacenttotheMandelaHighwayisunlikelytobringrelief.Themorelikelyresult willbeacceleratedcompactionduetothemuddyandpeatynatureofthesubstrate.Withsealevelrise andpossiblecontinuedsubsidencethereisurgentneedtoreengineerthehighwaybyraisingthelevel oftheroadbedtoconvertwhatisperhapsthemostheavilyusedarterialhighwayinJamaicaintoanall weatherroad.TheothermainrouteoutofPortmoreintoKingstoncrossestheHuntsBayBridgeintoan areaofdowntownKingstonthatisalsoverylowlyinganditselfsubjecttofrequentflooding. Although the major Mandela Highway between Kingston and Spanish Town and cities further west is highlighted,thereareotherareaswheretheroadbedneedstobeelevatedatleastto23mabovesea level to avoid increasing incidence of periodic flooding in the future. One obvious candidate is the highwayalongPalisadoesservingtheNormanManleyInternationalAirport.Longtermplanningshould incorporatethispolicyforallprimaryroadsthatserviceandprovideaccesstowithcoastalcommunities, especiallywhereemergencyevacuationmaybenecessary. Earlywarningsystemsinemergencymanagement Inhabitedstructuresnearthecoastline,particularlythenorthcoast(suchashotels)shouldberequired to have emergency procedures in place for tsunami, and other possible sudden events (such as explosions or accidents releasing noxious gases, flash floods, and beach contamination with oil). As notedearlier,theseismiceventsgeneratingtsunamiarenotthoughttoberelatedtoclimatechange, but a rising sealevel will make built structures increasingly vulnerable to sudden flooding events. Warningsystemsfortsunamimustbebasedontheexpectedshortleadtimesbetweenaseismicevent andthearrivaloftsunamiwavesandshouldincludeaudiblealarmssuchassirens. Beachnourishment With the likelihood that natural sand supplies to carbonate beaches will be severely curtailed before 2050, there is need to identify suitable sources of sand for beach nourishment if the tourist industry planstocontinuebasingadvertisingonthecoastalenvironment.Thecostofnourishmentishighandis anongoingprocess,requiringrepeatnourishmentatintervals.Thusoffshoresandreservesneartothe touristandpublicbeachesshouldbeaprioritytarget.TheMarineGeologyUnithasidentifiedextensive deposits(possibledunes)ofcarbonatesandontheSouthCoastshelf(Robinsonetal.,2004).Theseare far from the potential clients but would be suitable for beach nourishment and extraction would probablynotinvolveunduedisturbanceofthenaturalenvironment.
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4.5.6
Constraints and Gaps
CoastalVulnerability A scheme embodying the principles used in constructing the Coastal Vulnerability Indices should be extendedtothewholeisland.Thiscanbedonerelativelyquicklyandatrelativelylowcost.Anisland wide application of a Coastal Vulnerability Index would provide planners with a technical baseline for consideringthemeritsofthevariousdevelopmentschemesthatwillsurelybesuggestedinthefuture. Preliminaryresearchtoperfectthemostappropriateparameterswouldbeafirststep.Additional,non physicalparametersshouldbeaddedas,forexample,inthecomprehensiveschemepublishedbyMeur Ferecetal.(2008) Setbacks In addition to revising setback guidelines to accommodate a riskbased approach, research is needed into how the guidelines may be designed to accommodate sealevel changes through time because progressive sealevel rise risks are likely to change. Setback guidelines should take into account the expecteddegreeofriseandbesubjecttorevisionatfrequentintervals(perhapsevery1520years),as new data on sealevel rise rates are generated. As part of setback guideline revision, an islandwide surveyproceduresimilar to theUScoastalsurvey practice of assigningan Erosion Hazard Areatothe coast, based on estimated erosion rates projected 60 years into the future should be implemented (CrowellandLeatherman,1999). Sourcesofbeachsand Aresearchprogrammetocarryoutanislandwidesurveyoftheislandshelfandupperslopetoidentify suitable alternative sources of carbonate sand for beach nourishment is needed, as the potential for naturalbeachreplenishmentdecreasesovertime.Thisshouldbecarriedoutbeforeindiscriminatesand miningdevelopsinresponsetotheneedsofthetouristindustry. Satellitebasedmonitoringofreefs Satellite monitoring of reefs is a fast growing methodology that is applicable to Jamaican island shelf systems,ashasbeendemonstratedinFloridaandelsewhere(e.g.Hallocketal.,2004).
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CHAPTER 5: OTHER INFORMATION CONSIDERED RELEVANT TO THE ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE OBJECTIVES OF THE CONVENTION Jamaica received $232,000 from the Global Environment Facility (GEF) in 1998 to undertake its Initial NationalCommunication,withUNDPastheImplementingAgency.TheInitialNationalCommunication was completed in November 2000 and submitted to the 6th Conference of the Parties of the United NationsFrameworkonClimateChange,inTheHague,Netherlands.Jamaicathenreceivedanadditional US$100,000fromtheGEFfinancingforadditionalcapacitybuildingexercisesassociatedwiththeinitial nationalcommunication.Thephasetwoenablingactivities,ortopupbeganinAugust2004andended inJuly2005. ThephasetwocapacitybuildingactivitiesforJamaicatargetedthreeareas: 1. Systematicobservation:Analysisofcurrentsystematicobservationsystemsandidentificationof needs; 2. Technology needs assessment: An initial identification of the technological requirements for Jamaicawasidentified; 3. Public awareness and education: Baseline studies were conducted in order to obtain a good understanding of the level of education and understanding in Jamaica as it relates to climate change. Theseactivitiesaredescribedfurtherbelow.Thischapterconcludeswithacomparisonoftheinitialand secondnationalcommunications. 5.1 ClimatechangeresearchandsystematicobservationsystemsinJamaica
From 1215 April, 2005, an initial assessment of Jamaicas systematic observation systems was conducted in conjunction with the national Meteorological Service. This assessment comprised of interviewswithkeypersonnel,aswellasvisitstoanumberoflocationswheresystematicobservation systemsarelocated. TheassessmentfocusesontheneedsandtherequirementsoftheMeteorologicalServices,withaview to making recommendations for the improvement of the observation systems in Jamaica. More specifically,thefollowingelementswereplanned: (iv) A detailed assessment of the coastal, marine, and hydro meteorological systematic observationsystemsinJamaica,describing:thetypesandlocationsoftheequipment;the agencies responsible for the maintenance of the equipment; the scope of climate related datastored,includingclimatevariablesobserved;theyearsforwhichdataisavailableand frequencyofdatacollection. (v) An assessment of the current coastal, marine, and hydro meteorological systematic observationssystemsinJamaica. (vi) An identification of the technological and capacity building requirements for the upgrade andimprovementsofthecurrentsystematicobservationsystems. Itwasrecommendedthat13automaticweatherstationsbeaddedtotheexistingsystem.Alongwith someotherrequiredupgrades,thetotalcostofimprovementswouldbeUS$615,853. 374
5.1.1 Currentstatusofsystematicobservationsystems(April2005) TheMeteorologicalServiceisorganizedintothreebranches: TheAdministrationandSupportServicesbranchprovidesefficientandeffectiveadministration intheareasofpersonnel,officemanagement,accountingservices,aregistryandalibrary. The Weather branch is concerned with current weather information and weather forecasting forgeneraldissemination.Acontinuoushurricanewatchismaintainedbythisbranch.Datafor forecastsareobtainedlocallyfromobservationpointsatthesurfaceandupperairstationsas well as from radar stations and internationally through radiotelecommunications links with MiamiandWashingtonandviastationaryandpolarorbitingweathersatellites TheClimatebranchmanagesanislandwidenetworkofclimatologicalstations,rainfallstations andautomaticweatherstations.Thebranchanalysesdatageneratedwithaviewtomonitoring and assessing the climate of the island. The branch also processes requests for clients, which include crop water requirements, design criteria for hydrologists and engineers, and climatologicalinformationforresolvinglegalandinsuranceclaims. TheNationalMeteorologicalCentre(NMC) TheforecastingcentreoftheMeteorologicalServiceistheNationalMeteorologicalCentre(NMC),which islocatedattheNormanManleyInternationalAirport(NMIA).TheNMChasanumberofinstruments and systems which are used for monitoring weather conditions and for communicating with other forecastingcentresaroundtheglobe. ThroughaSmallIslandDevelopingStates(SIDS)projectfundedbytheFinnishGovernmentanddesigned toimprovemeteorologicalservicesinCaribbean,theNMCwasprovidedwithanInternationalSatellite CommunicationSystem(ISCS)toreplacetheformersystem,SatelliteTransmissionforRegion4(STAR IV)(Figure5.1).ThenewMessirequipmentisusedtotransmitweatherdataviasatellite.Itcanperform numerous analyses and can also manipulate data to yield forecast projections. At the time of the assessmentinApril2005,itwasreportedthattheEarthlinkequipment,whichisusedforsendingand receiving data to/from the National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA) had a software conflictproblem Figure5.1:TheInternationalSatelliteCommunicationSystemattheNMC 375
TheCaribbeanRadiosondeNetwork ACaribbeanRawinsondeNetwork(CRN)station(theUpperairstation)isalsolocatedattheairport.The CRN is supplied with spares and equipment by NOAA, which also bears responsibility for equipment maintenance. The CRN releases one hydrogen filled weather balloon each day except during the hurricaneseason,whentwoarereleasedday.Amicrosondeattachedtotheballoonsendsbackcoded weatherinformationabouttheupperatmosphere.Atthetimeoftheassessment,therewereproblems withthetrackingsoftwarethatfacilitatestransmissionofdatabacktothestationfromthemicrosonde. Thismadeitdifficulttocalibratethesystembeforerelease,andsometimesresultedinacancellationof the run all together. The problem was reported to NOAA. Also at the time of the assessment, the hydrogen gas generator needed 34 transformers and there was a requirement for filters for water purification. A new solar interruptible power supply was also needed to aid operations during power outages,whichNOAAhadcommittedtosupplying. TheAutomaticWeatherStationatNMIA An automatic weather station is sited adjacent to the runway at the airport and close to the coast (Figure 5.2). The station transmits realtime weather data for aviation purposes. Weather data is reportedforthefollowingparameters:rainfall,air,anddewpointtemperature,relativehumidity,wind speedandwinddirection,andsolarradiation.Thisdataissentviamicrowavedirectlytotheforecasting centreandadirectfeedisalsosenttotheairtrafficcontrol.Atthetimeoftheassessment,pending electricalrepairsattheairportwerepreventingmorefavourablecablingtothestation. Figure5.2:InspectingtheSensorsoftheAutomaticWeatherStationattheNMIA 376
TheDopplerRADAR TheDopplerRADARislocatedatCoopersHill,St.Andrew,andwasfunctioningeffectivelyandefficiently at the time of the assessment. It was noted, however, that the radar could provide a number of additionalproductswhichcouldbeusedtoenhanceoperationsoftheMeteorologicalService.Atthe timeoftheassessment,itwasstatedbytheheadoftheinstrumentsectionthattherewasaneedto recalibratetheradarandthatthedataoperatorneededarefreshercourse.Therewasalsoaneedfora groundtruthing of the radar due to a problem with the radars coverage in northeastern Jamaica becauseofablockageofthelineofsightcausedbytheBlueMountains.Thus,additionalsmallerradar (200kw)wasneededtocovernortheasternJamaicatoensurefullcoverageoftheentireisland.Itwas alsonotedthattherewasaneedforatleast40kwstandbypoweratthesiteofCoopersHillforusein emergencies,giventhecriticalroleoftheradaronsuchoccasions. AutomaticWeatherStations Atthetimeoftheassessment,thereweresevenautomaticweatherstationslocatedat(i)NegrilPoint, Westmoreland,(ii)MontegoBay,StJames,(iii)NMIA,Kingston,(iv)MorantPoint,StThomas,(v)Pedro Bank, (vi) Folly Point, Portland and (vii) Discovery Bay, St Anns. Through the Caribbean Planning to Adaptation to Global Climate Change (CPACC) project, two further stations and tidal gauges were obtainedandinstalledatPortRoyalandDiscoveryBay(listedabove). Data being generated from the CPACC station in Port Royal was not used as it was close to the automaticweatherstationatNMIA;thedatageneratedattheairportwasusedinpreferencetoPort Royal.ThestationatPortRoyalwasalsoinneedofrepairsatthetimeoftheassessment,aswasthe CPACCstationatDiscoveryBay. ClimatologicalNetwork The islands climatological network consists of over 25 climatological stations and nearly 300 rainfall stations. The climatological stations record rainfall, temperature, evaporation and sunshine duration. ThenetworkismaintainedbytheDataAcquisitionSectionoftheClimateBranch.Themaininstruments used are the Stevenson Screen, thermometers, rain gauges, rainfall loggers, evaporation pans and sunshinerecorders. Currently, the rainfall network covers over 80 per cent of the islands terrain and the climatological stationsarelocatedstrategicallynearesttolocationsofgreatestneedforsuchinformation.Ofthe25 climatological stations, at the time of the assessment eight were out of operation due to equipment failureordamagesustainedbythepassagesofHurricanesIvanin2004andEmilyandDennisin2005. Twentytworainfallloggersrecordrainfallintensityanddurationinadditiontorainfallamountstheonly parameterrecordedbytheraingauges. 5.1.2 DataCollection Priorto1994,therewerenoautomaticweatherstationsforthecollectionofdatainJamaicaalthough thestandardmeteorologicaldatawasalwayscollected.Winddirection,speed,airtemperature,relative humidity,atmosphericpressureandrainfalldataarecollectedbytheMeteorologicalService.Historic databackto1881existed,whichwasbasedonBritishplantationdata;howeverafirein1993destroyed muchofitandthusthecurrentmeteorologicaldatabaseonlystartsfrom1993. 377
Atthetimeoftheassessment,therehadbeenseveralattemptstorecapturedataovertheprevious10 yearsbuttheprocesswasnotcomplete.SomeoldIBMtapesthatmayhavesomedataweretobesent totheUSAforreading.SomeairportdatahadalsobeenarchivedattheWMORegiondataarchiving centreinArlington,WestVirginia,intheUSA. 5.1.3 TechnologicalCapacityNeedsandRequirements The2005assessmentfoundthatthenumberofautomaticweatherstationsneededtobeimprovedto obtain a comprehensive coverage of meteorological data so as to improve the ability to monitor the microclimateswithinJamaicaandtounderstandclimatechangeanditspossibleimpactsinJamaica.An increase in the amount of weather stations would also aid with provision of agricultural data so that thereisbetterunderstandingoftheclimaticconditions.Finally,anincreaseinthenumberofautomatic weatherstationswouldalsoassistinprovidingdatatogroundtruththeDopplerRadar. It was proposed that 13 more automatic weather stations be added to the current complement of weatherstations.Thefollowinglocationswereidentified: (i) SavannahLaMar,Westmoreland (ii) Lucea,Hanover (iii) Cambridge,StJames (iv) BlackRiver,StElizabeth, (v) Balaclava,StElizabeth (vi) Alexandra,StAnns (vii) Oracabessa,StMary (viii) AnnottoBay,StMary (ix) PortlandRidge,Clarendon (x) AlligatorPond,StElizabeth (xi) Mandeville,Manchester (xii) WorthyPark,StCatherine (xiii) OchoRios,StAnns Theproposednewautomatedweatherstationswouldbeconnectedbysatellitetoensureeffectivedata receptionandpermissionhadbeenobtainedfromNOAAtoconnecttherelevantsatellite.Additionally, theautomaticweatherstationsinstalledundertheCPACCprojectwouldberepairedundertheMACC project. The assessment also identified a need for the maintenance of other critical equipment through the provisionofspareparts.Forexample,toalleviatepowerproblemsatrelevantofficestherewasaneed foraUPS.Aspareprocessorboardwasalsorequiredfortheradar,asthecostofsendingoneoverseas to be fixed was often prohibitive. A full list of the required spare parts needed to assist for the preparationofhurricaneseasonwasincludedintheestimatedbudget. Finally,asnotedearlier,therewasaneedforsmallradartocoverthenortheasternareaofJamaicanot coveredbytheDopplerRADARaswellasaneedfortrainingtoaidwiththeDopplerRadaroperation,so thatradarcouldberecalibratedandusedmoreeffectively. IntermsoftheimprovingtheJamaicanclimatologicalnetwork,theassessmentidentifiedthefollowing equipment needs: (i) an additional 100 rain gauges and measuring cylinders to provide at least 97% coverage oftheisland;(ii)an additional40 rainloggersto complementthe raingaugeswithintensity 378
anddurationinformation;(iii)fiftyfullclimatologicalstationsforgreaterspatialcoverage30alongthe coastand20atthehigherelevations;and(iv)thermometers,evaporationpans,andsunshinerecorders foreachclimatologicalstation. ThetotalbudgetfortheimprovementswasestimatedatUS$615,853(Table5.1).Theprojectconceptis includedasanAppendixtothischapter. Table5.1:EstimatedBudgetandCostsforImprovingJamaicasSystematicObservationSystems Item Costs($US)(2004) 200kwRadar 400,000 13AutomatedWeatherStationsandsparetower(shipping) 143,453 Training 10,000 DopplerRadarSpares SignalProcessorBoard(ESP7) 18,000 Thyratron 6,500 ThyratronTriggerModule 4,900 LightningProtection 2,000 EquipmentCalibrationandMaintenanceTraining 10,000 RadarOperationandDatainterpretationTraining 10,000 UpperAirStation FiltersforHydrogenGeneratorFiltrationSystem 500 StandbyPowerGenerator 1,000 SynopticSubStation Hydothermometer(backuptemperature) 3,000 AneroidBarometer(atmosphericpressurebackup 1,500 AWSSpares 5,000 TOTAL 615,853
5.1.4 AssessmentConclusions Itwasconcludedthattheproposedadditionalautomaticweatherstationsconnectedbysatellitewould have a number of advantages for Jamaica. First, it will improve information on local conditions and could provide important climatic information for a number of uses such as agriculture and disaster management.Second,itwouldalsoimprovetheaccuracyofJamaicascontributiontotheinternational observation systems and databases such as the Global Climate Observing System, NOAA, and the NationalHurricaneCentrethroughthetrackingoftropicalcyclonesandtheprovisionofmoreaccurate meteorologicaldataforinputtingintoGlobalCirculationModels. Unlike many countries intheCommonwealth Caribbean, Jamaica has a Doppler RADAR. The Doppler RADAR has a number of uses which can provide a number of opportunities for the Meteorological Service.Forexample,datacanbeplacedontheinternetforpublic/privateaccess,andtheoutputsfrom theDopplerRADARcanalsobeusedinthemediaforforecasting.Therecouldbepossibilitiesforthe MeteorologicalServicetoobtainsomerevenueusingsuchoutputsoftheDoppler.Trainingontheuse 379
of the Doppler RADAR should occur in collaboration with the system manufacturer and with NOAA. Also,everyeffortshouldbemadetorescuerelevantdataandtoimprovethecurrentdatabaseinwhich rainfallstartsin1993. Jamaica should consider approaching an international agency to assist with providing funding to improvethesystematicobservationsystems,suchasUNDP,NOAAorWMO.Theneedshighlightedfor the island widenetworkof rainfall and climatological stations shouldbe addressed urgently sincethe coverageprovidedbythestationsyieldsdataformultipleuses. 5.2 JamaicasInitialClimateChangeTechnologyNeedsAssessment 5.2.1 Background The need for technology transfer and environmentally sound technologies has been recognized as critical in averting the threat of climate change throughout the UNFCCC process. Article 4.5 of the Conventionstatesthat: thedevelopedcountryPartiesandotherdevelopedPartiesincludedinAnnexIIshalltake allpracticablestepstopromote,facilitateandfinanceasappropriate,thetransferof,or access to, environmentally sound technologies and know how to other parties, particularlydevelopingcountriesParties,toenablethemtoimplementtheprovisionsof the Convention. In this process, the developed country Parties shall support the developmentandenhancementofendogenouscapacitiesandtechnologiesofdeveloping countryParties.OtherPartiesandorganizationsinapositiontodosomayalsoassistin facilitatingthetransferofsuchtechnologies. Through the consultative process, a framework for technology transfer was developed and formally adoptedattheSeventhConferenceofPartiesin2001bydecision4/CP7. A workshop on Technology Needs Assessments and Technology Informationfor theCaribbean Region washeldinOctober2003inPortofSpain,TrinidadandTobago.Themainobjectivesweretodiscuss regional concerns and priorities in assessing technology needs, including information tools and resources relevant for the Caribbean region, and to discuss a framework to assist countries in conducting comprehensive technology needs assessments including addressing adaptation issues and concerns.Amongthekeyrecommendationsandoutcomesoftheworkshopwerethatadaptationissues areinherentlycrosssectoralandareofteninterrelatedwithmitigationoptionsandthattheTechnology Needs Assessment process and activities should not be conducted in a vacuum but ensure links with nationaldevelopmentprioritiesandneeds. 5.2.2 TheTechnologyNeedsAssessmentProcess Technologytransferisconcernedwiththeflowofexperience,knowhow,andequipmentbetweenand withincountries.Decision4CP/7notedthattechnologytransferhasfivekeyelementsconnectedwithin anintegratedframework.Theseelementsare: (i) thetechnologyneedsassessment, (ii) improvingaccesstotechnologyinformation, (iii) improvingandstrengtheninglocalcapacity, (iv) creatingenablingenvironments,and (v) institutingtechnologytransfermechanisms. 380
Atechnologyneedsassessmentprocessisdefinedasasetofcountrydrivenactivitiesthatidentifyand determine national mitigation and adaptation technology priorities, which can form the basis for a portfolioofenvironmentallysoundtechnologiesprojectsandprogrammes.Toconductthetechnology needsassessment,JamaicausedasixstepprocessoutlinedbyUNDP(Figure5.3). Figure5.3:UNDPTechnologyNeedsAssessmentProcess Activity 1 is a preliminary overview or assessment of the sectorswhicharetobeanalyzed.Theassessmentinvolves Activity 1: Prepare a preliminary collecting and analyzing the various data and information overview of the sectors which exists on this sector, so that a comprehensive overviewofthesectoriscomplete. Activity 2 involves the identification of technology for Activity 2: Identify technology criteria for investment. This depends on a number of criteria for assessment factors as itrelates to thetechnology. Key questionssuch as the contribution to development goals and the possible marketpotentialoftechnologyhavetobeconsidered. Activity 3: Prioritise sectors and Activity 3 is the identification of priority sectors and key select key technology (ies) technologies,whichwillbebasedonthekeycriteriaforthe technology and the importance of the sector. The availabilityandthepossibleaccesstothetechnologyshould Activity 4: Identify barriers and beconsidered. policy needs Activity 4 allows the identification of barriers to applying specifictechnologies,andtheidentificationofpolicyneeds Activity 5: Define and select whicharerequiredtoimprovetechnologytransfer. options Activities5and6involveselectingtechnologicaloptionsfor theshortandlongterm,andthepreparationofareportfor review. The entire technology needs assessment process Activity 6: Prepare a synthesis report should involve stakeholder consultation and engagement alongwithbarrieranalysis. ForJamaica,thetechnologyneedsassessmentprocessconsistedofaseriesofexpertworkshopswith key sectoral experts present to discuss issues relating to technology in Jamaica. The first workshop focusedonmitigationandenergyissues,whilethesecondworkshoplookedatadaptationissuesasthey relate to the coastal zone and water sectors in Jamaica. Both workshops used the initial national communicationofJamaicaasthedocumentofreference. 5.2.3 MitigationTechnologiesfortheEnergySector GreenhouseGasEmissions/CurrentSituation(2005) TheInitialNationalCommunicationofJamaicawassubmittedinNovember2000.TheGHGinventory was a key component. GHGemissionsandremovals bysinkswerecalculated forthe baseyear 1994 utilizing the 1996 Revised IPCC Guidelines. In 1994, Jamaica emitted 8,585 gigagrams (Gg) of carbon dioxide(CO2)and58.47Ggofmethane(CH4)(Table5.2). The majority of CO2 emitted in Jamaica is as a result of fossil fuel combustion for energy, with the manufacturing industries and the construction sector being responsible for over 4,000 Gg of carbon 381
emissions.Figure5.4showsthat43.7%oftheemissionsintheenergyandindustrialprocesssectorsare duetoenergycombustioninthebauxiteindustry. Table5.2:SummaryofGreenhouseGasEmissionsofJamaica(Gg)(1994)

GREENHOUSEGASSOURCEANDSINK CATEGORIES TotalNationalEmissionsandRemovals(Gg) 1Energy AFuelCombustion(SectoralApproach) 1EnergyIndustries 2ManufacturingIndustriesandConstruction 3Transport 4OtherSectors 5Other(pleasespecify) BFugitiveEmissionsfromFuels 1SolidFuels 2OilandNaturalGas 2IndustrialProcesses AMineralProducts BChemicalIndustry CMetalProduction DOtherProduction EProductionofHalocarbonsandSulphur Hexafluoride FConsumptionofHalocarbonsandSulphur Hexafluoride GOther 3SolventandOtherProductUse 4Agriculture AEntericFermentation BManureManagement CRiceCultivation DAgriculturalSoils EPrescribedBurningofSavannas FFieldBurningofAgriculturalResidues GOther(pleasespecify) 5LandUseChange&Forestry AChangesinForestandOtherWoody BiomassStocks BForestandGrasslandConversion CAbandonmentofManagedLands DCO2EmissionsandRemovalsfromSoil EOther(pleasespecify) 6Waste ASolidWasteDisposalonLand BWastewaterHandling CWasteIncineration DOther(pleasespecify) CO2 Emissions 8,585 8,182 8,182 2,245 4,111 1,257 586 18 0 403 403 0 0 0 0 0 (1) 0 (1) (1) 0 88 0 0 CO2 CH4 Removals 167 58.47259 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 43 36 7 0 0 0 0 (1) 0 (1) 0 0 (1)0 0 0 14.40987 14.408181 0.0016889 0 N2O 344 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 343 4 339 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Source:JamaicasFirstNationalCommunicationtotheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange
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Figure5.4:CarbonDioxideEmissionsfromEnergyandIndustrialProcessesSectors(1994)
Jamaica's CO2 Emissions Energy and Industrial Processes Sectors, 1994
Petroleum Refining 1.2%
Electricity 25.0%
Bauxite 43.7%
Cement (process) 2.6% Lime 1.8% Other Sectors 6.8% Transport 14.7% Cement (energy) 2.7% Other Manufacturing 1.5%
Source:JamaicasFirstNationalCommunicationtotheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange
Currently in Jamaica, there was 780 Megawatts (MW) of installed electricity generating capacity, of which 5.6 per cent was generated from renewable energy sources. The Wigton Wind Farm in Manchesterprovides20.7MW,whileothersourcesofrenewableenergywerefromtheuseofbagasse andsmallscalehydroelectricitygeneratingplants. Jamaicaisnotaproduceroffossilfuelsandisthereforeheavilydependentontheimportationoffuels tomeetitsenergyneeds.Currently65%offoreignexchangeearnedwasspentonimportedfuel,which amountedtoabout15percentofGrossDomesticProduct.Thus,areductionintheamountoffossil fuelimportedwoulddirectlyaidinimprovingtheJamaicaneconomy.Table5.3showstheimportation of petroleum products for 2003, whilst Table 5.4 shows the consumption of petroleum products for 1998and2003. Table5.3:ImportationofPetroleumtoJamaica(2003) Items Volume(millionbbls) Value(US$Million) BauxiteandAlumina 9.03 212.3 MarketingCompanies 3.03 133.0 PetrojamCrudeImportsandRefinedProducts 15.04 467.7 Total 27.10 813.0
Source:DraftPower/ElectricityPolicyforJamaica2004,MinistryofCommerce,ScienceandTechnology
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Table5.4:FuelConsumptionbyVariousSectors(1998and2003) ActivitySectors Millionbbls1998 Percentage Millionbbls2003 Percentage RailandRoadTransport 5.75 25.00 6.07 23.5 Shipping/Aviation 1.60 7.00 2.01 7.8 ElectricityGeneration 5.12 22.00 6.47 25.1 Bauxite/Alumina 8.67 38.00 9.54 37.0 Cooking 0.84 4.00 0.90 3.5 Manufacturing/Processing 0.64 3.00 0.53 2.1 Other 0.19 1.00 0.25 1.0 Total 22.81 100.00 25.78 100.0 Nonbauxite/bunkering 12.54 55.0 14.23 55.4 Bauxite/bunkering 10.27 45 11.55 44.6 Source:DraftPower/ElectricityPolicyforJamaica2004,MinistryofCommerce,ScienceandTechnology According to Table 5.3, US$212 million of oil was imported (in 2003?) for alumina and bauxite operations,US$133millionimportsbythemarketingcompaniesandUS$467millionbythePetrojamoil refinery.The9.03millionbarrelsofoilimportedforthealuminasectorin2003wasatacostofUS$24 perbbl.Crudepricesfor2003averagedUS$28perbblcomparedtoUS$34forfinishedproducts.The averagepriceofoilimportswasUS$29perbblsin2003.Between1998and2003,thecostofimported oilforthealuminasectorwentupfromUS$91milliontoUS$212millionanincreaseofmorethan130 percent. Fuel imports can be broken down into two basic categories. The first category consists of the bauxite/alumina/shipping/aviation subsectors, which are exportbased, while the second category of electricity generation/road transport is import based. Thus, the implications for the economy are slightlydifferent.Increasedaluminaproductionwillresultsinincreasedoilconsumption.Fueloilforthe bauxite/aluminasectorispaidfromtheindustrysexportearnings,andhencethereislittledrainonthe foreigncurrencyreserves.Fueloilforelectricitygeneration/roadtransportation/cookingisimportbased andthuswillhaveaneffectonforeigncurrencyreserves. The increased electricity consumption in recent years has come mainly from higher quality of life; including the wider use of electrical equipment and devices in homes and factories such as air conditioners,televisionsets,computers,washingmachines,ratherthanfromexpansionoftheindustrial base. There has also been a rapid expansion in oil consumption for local transportation. This took place, immediatelyafterthemotorvehicleliberalizationpolicyinthemid1990s.Thetransportationshareof oilconsumptionincreasedfrom16percentintheearly1990sto25percentin1998.Therearenow morevehiclesareontheroad,andthisaccountedfortheincreasedoilconsumption,ratherthanhigher consumptionbyexistingvehicles.Withthereductionintheageofsecondhandvehicleimportsinthe latterpartofthe1990s,therateofusedvehicleadditionshasslowed.Thefuelefficiencyofthevehicle imported has also increased. The result is that the rate of increase for fuel oil consumption for local transportationhasslowed. Jamaica,unlikemanycountriesintheEnglishspeakingCaribbean,hasaliberalizedenergymarket.This allows for auto generators or self generators such as the sugar factories and alumina plants to sell excesscapacitytotheJamaicaPublicServiceCompanyLimited(JPSCo)asiftheyareindependentpower 384
producers.TheycanalsowheelelectricityfromtheirowngenerationplantalongJPSCostransmission anddistributionnetworktoownedendusepoints,solongasnothirdpartysaleisinvolved.Electricity, however,remainsthemostimportantareaintermsofopportunitytoreducetheimportedenergybill. Jamaicahadawellestablishedenergypolicyatthetimeoftheassessment(anewpolicyfor200930has justbeenadopted).TheobjectivesoftheenergypolicyofJamaicawereasfollows: a) Toensurestableandadequateenergysuppliesattheleasteconomiccostinaderegulatedand liberalizedenvironment b) To diversify the energy base and encourage the development of indigenous energy resources whereeconomicallyviableandtechnicallyfeasible;andensurethesecurityofenergysupplies c) Encourage efficiency in energy production, conversion and use with the overall objectives of reducingtheenergyintensityoftheeconomy d) ComplementthecountrysIndustrialPolicyrecognizingtheimportanceofenergyasacriticalin outtoindustrialgrowthandstability e) Minimizetheadverseenvironmentaleffectsandpollutioncausedbytheproduction,storage, transportanduseofenergy,andminimizeenvironmentaldegradationasaresultoftheuseof fuelwoodand; f) Establish an appropriate regulatory framework to protect consumers, investors and the environment. Inordertoachievetheobjectivesoftheenergypolicy,anenablingenvironmentwascreatedto: a) Encourageprivatesectorparticipationandinvestmentsthroughapolicyofdivestmentandan appropriateregulatoryframeworkconducivetonewinvestment b) Promote the development of indigenous energy source where appropriate technically and economicallyfeasible c) Encourage energy conservation/efficiency on the supply side as well as demand side management d) Fullyprotecttheenvironmentwhileensuringthatadequateenergysuppliesareavailabletothe country and to sustain the desired rate of economic growth, and at the same time stimulate industrialdevelopmentbyencouragingsynergiesfromcogeneration;and e) Maintainappropriateinstitutionalarrangementstoensurethatthestatedobjectivesachieved. The energy policy of Jamaica was designed to continue to foster, facilitate and encourage the developmentofallnewandrenewableenergysources,improveinformationdisseminationwithregards toenergyconservationsystemsandpromoteandsupportDemandSideManagement.Withregardsto economic incentives, the energy policy notes that the tax applied on energy conservation equipment andmaterialsandsupplieswillbesuchthatitwillensurethattheitemsinvolvedareavailabletothe public and that the consumers will be encouraged to invest in the most efficient end use device or technology. CriteriaforMitigationTechnologies A number of issues were considered with regards to criteria for the transfer and development of technologiesformitigationforJamaica.Theseincludedtheoverallintegrationwiththecurrentenergy policy,andthelinkagetodevelopmentgoals.InorderforatechnologytobesuitableforJamaica,itwas agreedthereanumberofkeycriteriawhichhavetobemet.Theseare: (v) affordabilityandlowcost, (vi) environmentalandeconomicimpact, 385
(vii) (viii)
socialacceptability,and jobcreationpotential.
Theidentificationofthesekeycriteriawasdoneutilizingexpertjudgmentandstakeholderanalysis.It wasnotedthatanytechnologywhichistobetransferredtoJamaicashouldaidinreducingtheamount offoreignexchangewhichisutilizedtopurchaseenergy,inadditionthetechnologyshouldbedurable, be commercially proven and aid in the development of Jamaica. Further, the proposed technology shouldbeinlinewithfutureprojectedenergyscenarios.Onepossiblescenarioseestheexpansionof capacity from the current 780 MW to 1250 MW by 2015. Table 5.5 shows the possible fuel sources whichcouldbeusedtomeetthescenario. Table5.5:APossibleFutureEnergyScenariofor2015 FuelSources MW Heavyfueloilanddiesel 380 Naturalgasandcoal 700 Wind 70 Hydropower 35 Solidwaste 10 Bagasseandfuelwood 35 Oceanenergy 10 Solarphotovoltaics 0.2 Fuelcells 9.8 TOTAL 1,250 MitigationTechnologyRequirements NaturalGasTechnology Natural gas is the cleanest burning fossil fuel, and is available for transport in the form of liquefied naturalgas(LNG)orcompressednaturalgas(CNG).Sincethe1990s,naturalgashasbeenoneofthe fastest growing sources of energy for electricity generation, with combined cycle gas technology increasinglevelsofcompetitionandefficiency.TheproblemforJamaicaasaSIDisthatLNGisfaraway fromthesource.NaturalgashastobetransportedinspecializedLNGoceantankersandthusaterminal to receive natural gas is required so that Jamaica could benefit from its importation. This has been identified as a priority for Jamaica. There are plans for the construction of a natural gas terminal to import 1.1 million tonnes per year of LNG. Given the considerable energy requirements of bauxite industry, this natural gas will be used to generate electricity which will be shared among the major bauxitecompaniestoremovetheirdependenceonfueloil. TechnologytoextractCH4fromlandfillsandgenerateelectricityisalsorequiredandisapriority.This has the potential to generate at least 10MW of electricity in Jamaica and initial plans are in place to pursuethegenerationofelectricityfromlandfillgas
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Transport WithincreaseinthenumberofmotorvehiclesinJamaica,thetransportsectorwasalsohighlightedas prioritysectorwherenewtechnologiesneedtobeapplied.Thereisaneedtoexaminethemasstransit possibilitiesinJamaica;especiallythepossibilitiesforlightrailtransitneedfurtherconsideration. Giventhelargeamountsofforeignexchangewhichisspentontheimportationofgasolineforvehicles, thereisaneedtolookatalternativefuelsandvehiclesforJamaica.CNGcanbeusedinvehicles,and there are a number of manufactures of natural gas engine vehicles which could be used in Jamaica. Utilizing natural gas vehicle in Jamaica would have a number of benefits including promoting energy security,andreducingtheamountofparticulatematterandNOxwhichareemitted.Fuelcellvehicles could also be utilized in Jamaica, but there are a number issues related to fuel storage and facilities whichwouldneedtobeaddressed,suchastheincreaseinthenumberofretailpoints. Diesel is cheaper than gasoline and there have been many developments in diesel engine technology which Jamaica could benefit from. An increase in the number of vehicles utilizing low emission diesel engineswouldbebeneficialinJamaica.Electricvehiclesandhybridvehiclewouldalsobedesirablein Jamaica,asthesevehicleshavelittleemissionsandwillhelpreducethedependencyongasoline. RenewableEnergyTechnologies With the increasing amount escalating fossil fuel prices and the ever increasing amount of foreign exchangebeingspentonfossilfuels,thedevelopmentofavibrantrenewableenergysectorwillhelpin improving energy independence. Jamaica, like many other SIDS, has an abundance of resources for renewable energyprojects. The value ofrenewables liesin theirabilitytorespondsimultaneouslyto thetwochallengeswhichconfronttheenergysector,whicharesustainabledevelopment,andsecurity andeconomicgrowth.RenewableenergytechnologiesoptionsforJamaicaarehighlightedbelow. Wind Energy: Jamaica already has a 20.7MW wind farm. Jamaica also has several other sites where the wind is in excess 8 metres per second and thus is suitable for the generation of electricity by wind. Generation of electricity by wind is very competitive with conventional mechanisms.WindhasbeenidentifiedasprioritytechnologyforJamaicagiventhatitisproven andthewindresourceisfree. SmallScaleHydroPower:JamaicawasoneofthefirstcountriesoutsideoftheUnitedKingdom toinstallahydroplant,justoutsideofSpanishTowninthe1890s.Currentlytherewerenine hydro plants ranging from 0.2MW to 6MW with an overall generating capacity of 23 MW installedinJamaica,andpotentialfortheinstallationofatleastanadditional30MWofhydro capacity. With the continued increase in oil prices world wide, hydro power has become a priority as it now more competitive. There are small specialized hydro power technologies whicharesuitableforJamaica. Cogeneration and Biomass: With the changes in the international market and the end to preferentialtreatmentforsugar,alternativeuseshavetobefoundforsugarcane.Jamaicahas vibrantsugarindustryandcurrentlythereweresevensugarmillsgeneratingaround30MWof power from bagasse for own use. There is considerable potential to improve cogeneration possibilities in Jamaica. Cogeneration offers the opportunity to meet multiple objectives: improving energy efficiency and integrating energy policy into the industrial development 387
policy.Cogenerationtechnologiescharacterizedbyhighoutputratiosofelectricitytosteamfor example, reciprocating internal combustion engines and fuel cells make it possible for cogeneration to play an important role in the power generation and energy efficiency in Jamaica. Thesevensugarfactoriescouldmeetalltheirenergyneeds,whilesupplyingexcesspowertothe nationalgridfromcogenerationrenewableresource.Someinitialestimatesnotethatbetween 80to100MWofadditionalcapacityisfeasible,andthiswouldallowthesugarindustrytoexport 70MWofpowerinthecropseasontothenationalgridandprovidesignificantforeignexchange savingstothecountrywhilecontributingtothecommercialsustainabilityoftheindustry. EthanolcanalsobeproducedbythesugarcaneindustryinJamaica,thusaddingtotheproducts which the sugar cane industry can provide. Ethanol can be used for a variety of purposes in Jamaica, these include replace octane enhancers in gasoline, as a transport fuel as is done in Brazil.Theethanolwhichisproducedcanalsobeexported.Technologyforethanolproduction isthereforeapriority.Currently,therewasa40milliongallonethanolproductionplantbeing commissionedinJamaica. SolarEnergy:Jamaicaisideallysuitedfortheapplicationofsolartechnologies.Manyareasin Jamaicahavesolarinsulationof8kWhpersq.metreperday,whichisexcellentforutilizingsolar energyforthesupplyofelectricity. Whilethereareanumberofphotovoltaicsystemsscatteredacrosstheisland,thereisroomfor improvementwithregardstosolarenergyinJamaica.Theresomestreetlightingsystemswhich use photovoltaics, but there is a need for more photovoltaics to be used throughout the country.Someotherislandsintheregionhavedevelopedsolarhotwaterheatingtechnologies andthesehavebeentransferredtoJamaica.Therehoweveraneedforthemorewidespread useofthesesystemsinJamaica.Economicincentivesmightberequired. ThepotentialforsolarcropdryinghasnotbeenfullyrealizedinJamaicaalthoughitisameans ofpreventingspoilagewhichaffectsasmuchas30percentofcropproduction.Cropssuchas bananas,papaya,sorrel,sweetpotato,yam,ginger,nutmeg,pimento,grassesandleavescanbe dried by solar dryers, which range from the simple wire basket dryer to approximately two squaremetresofroofsolarcollectors. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC): OTEC is an energy source that basically utilizes the differencesinthetemperaturegradientsinbetweenthewarmsurfacewaterandthecolddeep waterstodriveaturbinetoprovideelectricity(Figure5.5).OTECusesonlyseawaterasenergy resource.Itprovidesaninexhaustibleenergyresourcewhichisstable,withzeroGHGemissions. OTEC.TherearenumberofdeepwatersitesaroundJamaicawhichcanbeusedforOTEC.OTEC technologyissuitableforJamaica,andtherearemanycommercialspinssuchasmariculture.
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Figure5.5:ThePrincipleofOTEC W a rm T u r b in e s e a w a te r pum p C ondenser E v a p o ra to r C o ld s e a w a te r pum p W o r k in g f lu id p u m p EnergyPolicy,Efficiency,ConservationandDemandSideManagement Jamaica,unlikemanycountriesintheCaribbean,hasafullyliberalizedenergysector.Thus,Jamaicahas long recognized the need for effective energy efficiency measures. The Jamaican Public Service Company(JPSCO)hasademandsidemanagementprogrammewhichwasdevelopedthroughaGlobal EnvironmentalFacility(GEF)demonstrationproject. At the time of the assessment, future government policy with regards to energy efficiency and conservationwasplannedaround: anEnergyEfficiencyBuildingCode, aHomeandSmallBusinessEnergyEfficiencyScheme, anEnergyEfficiencyCommitmentSchemeforlargeCommercialandIndustrialUsers, aPublicSectorEnergyEfficiencyProgramme, anEnergyEfficiencyMonitoringandRatingProgramme, anEfficiencyandRenewableEnergyFund, aSpecialTaxIncentivePackageforEnergyEfficiencyProductsandInvestments,and anEnergyEfficiencyAdviceandPublicEducationprogramme. Thepolicywastobebuiltaroundtheuseofenergyefficientdevicesandequipmentandpropercontrol and maintenance of energy consuming equipment. Energy audits were also planned for many commercialandindustrialusers. A new demand side management programme was also under consideration, developed jointly with JPSCOandthegovernment,withapossibletargetof3percentreductionindemandover57yearsor 20 MW of capacity. JPSCo may be provided with a mechanism to recover through the tariff base or energyfundinvestmentsmadeondemandsidemanagementmeasures. 389
5.2.4 TechnologiesforAdaptationintheCoastalZoneandWaterResourcesSectors CurrentSituation(2005) CoastalzoneswereidentifiedasacriticalsectorforJamaicaintheInitialNationalCommunication.The NationalEnvironmentandPlanningAgency(NEPA)reportedthat90percentoftheGDPwasproduced within the coastal zone. Jamaicas coastline is approximately 886km in length and has diverse ecosystems,includingsandybeaches,rockyshores,estuaries,wetlands,seagrassbedsandcoralreefs. Table5.6showsthedifferentnaturalregionsalongwhichthecoastalzonesofJamaicacanbedivided. Table5.6:TheVariousNaturalRegionswithintheCoastalZoneofJamaica
CharacteristicDevelopments High density tourism, plantation,mixedfarming Negril Cliffandhillcoast Southwestern coastal SavannahLaMarSurinamQuartersBlack Livestock, mixed farming, plainandwetlandscoast River. Sandy bays coastal barriers, patch and fishing, low density tourism, fringingreefs portfacilities PedroPlainsToHill Hill and cliff coast with minor beaches and limitedfringingreefs Long Bay Hill and Vere Wetland coast with fringing reefs between Plains RockyPointandJacksonBay Portland Scrubland Low cliffs, hill and low plains wetland coast Fishing, low density tourism, Ridge and Portland with few sand beaches, scattered fringing portfacilities Bight reefsandpatchreefs Hellshire Scrubland hills Lowcliffandsandyerosivebarrierandlagoon andbay with poormangrove, patchreefs andlimited fringingreefs Kingston Domesticarea High density urbanization, tourismportfacilities StDavidbushhill Bush hill and gravel beach system from the PalisadoestoYallahs TheMorantRivergravel Low Hills with cane fields, a wide wetland Plantations mixed farming, beachsystem without major drainage channels, very long gravelexcavation sandbeachesinthewesternpartandawide coralzone. The Morant Point Great Low hills with cane fields, a wide3 wetland Morass without major drainage channels, very long sandbeachesinthewesternpartandawide coralzone. TheEasternCoast Hilly, cultivated, open rocky cliff coast with fewsmallbaysandsandbeachesexceptLong Bay and with scattered nearshore fringing reefs The NorthEastern Mixed wood/cultivated cliff coast with many Plantations, low density PortlandCoast narrowbaysandpocketbeaches tourism,portfacilities 390 NaturalRegion Negril NaturalFeatures Coastalsandbarrierandmorass
NaturalRegion NaturalFeatures TheWesternPortlandSt Cultivated hills with large open bays with MaryCoast partly unstable gravel beaches and in some sectionawidefringingreefzone StMaryCoast Hilly,steeprockycliffcoastwithfewbaysand partlywelldevelopedfringingreefs The straight northern The mainly cultivated lowland coast from mixedcoast Oracabessa to Silversands with few bays scattered white sand beaches and wetlands andwidelydistributedcoralreefs. ThehillywoodlandcoastfromSilverSandsto Falmouth with a narrow shore terrace with lagoons. TheFalmouthlowland/wetlandcoast. The St James low, coastal foothill terrace, open coast with minor white sand beaches andnearshorefringingreefs TheMontegoBay Dominatedbycoastalconstructions
CharacteristicDevelopments
Low/high density tourism, mixedfarming Mixed farming low density tourism
TheHanoverCoast
High density tourism urbanization, mixed farming, portfacilities Thenorthernrockycliffcoastwithcovesand limitedfringingreefs:thenorthwesterncoast with large coves, wetland and fringing and patchreefs.
Source:JamaicaFirstNationalCommunicationtotheUnitedNationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange
CriticalinfrastructureislocatedwithinJamaicascoastalzone,includingportfacilities,tourismresorts, and dense population centres. The coastal zone of Jamaica is thus very susceptible to sea level rise, whichwouldcauseincreasedbeacherosionratesandhigherincidencesofcoastalflooding.Permanent inundationcouldoccurinsomeareas. Climatechangecouldalsocompoundandamplifytheeffectoftropicalstormsandhurricanes.Jamaica hassufferedinrecenttimesfromextremeweatherevents,withHurricanesDennisandEmilyaffecting theislandduring2005.DuringSeptember2004,HurricaneIvanstruckJamaicacausingapproximately US$580milliondollarsworthofdamagethroughdirectdamageandindirectlosses.Theinitialnational communicationnotedthatthecostestimatedbytheIPCCin1990toprotectJamaicafromonemetreof sealevelrisetobeUS$462million.Thepotentialfordamagefromclimateimpactstothebiodiversityof the coast and the coastal infrastructure is very high. The economic value of all the resources in the coastalzonewillalsobeadverselyimpactedasaresultofsealevelriseandachangingclimate.Alarge percentageofJamaicaspopulation(approximately25percent)isconcentratedneartothecoastline, thusariseinthesealevelwillcauseadisplacementwithregardstocoastalsettlements. Jamaicasfreshwaterreservescomefromavarietyofsources.Therearesurfacesourcesintheformof riverandstreams,andundergroundsourcesintheformofwellsandsprings.Thereissomerainwater harvestinginJamaica,howevergroundwatermeetsmostofthewaterdemandsinJamaica.Theinitial national communication noted that water demand distribution in Jamaica is based on the location of irrigatedlands,populationconcentrations,tourismdevelopment,andotherwaterconsumingindustries. Thedemandinthesouthishigh,duetotheextensiveagricultureintheareasoflittlerainfall.Bauxite 391
and sugar cane processing industries located in the south also consume large amounts of water. DemandinthenorthofJamaicaislowerbecausethereisgreaterrainfallandlesscultivableland. Changesinrainfallpatternscouldcauseadecreasedsurfaceandgroundwatersupplies.Climatechange will present additional water management challenges in Jamaica. There are predictions of increased shortintenseraineventsundercertainclimatechangescenarios.Thiswouldcauselowpercolationand recharge of aquifers and high run off. Reductions in rainfall as a result of climate change will affect water sources and supply. The reductions in rainfall will mean that less water will be available for domesticdemand.Decreasingrainfallwillmeanthattherewillbeanincreaseinirrigationrequirements for agriculture. Water resources are important for all aspects of the economy; thus with a changing climate,keysectorssuchastourism,andagriculturewillbeaffectednegatively. CriteriaforTechnologiesforAdaptation Anumberofissueswereconsideredwhencriteriaforthetransferanddevelopmentoftechnologiesfor adaptationwereconsidered.Stakeholderconsultationsandexpertjudgmentwereusedtodetermine thecriteria.Itwasnotedthattechnologiesforadaptationshouldbe:costeffective,proven,flexible,aid invulnerabilityreduction,andeasytouse.Technologiesforadaptationshouldalsolookattechnologies inthebroadestsense. AdaptationTechnologyRequirements Anumberoftechnologiesforadaptationweresuggestedtoaidinimprovingcoastalzonemanagement, in order to reduce the overall vulnerability of the coast to sea level rise. It was noted that beach protectionmeasuressuchasgroynesandrevetmentswillberequired.However,thereinstatingofthe tidal gauge network was highlighted as a priority for obtaining data, coupled with improved data collectionforthegeographicinformationsystem.Improvementinthegeographicinformationsystems will aid in planning and project designs, thus ensuring that vulnerability reduction will occur. Beach profilingalsoneedstobeexpandedinJamaicatoaidtheimproveddatacollection.Theregenerationof mangroveswasanotherapriorityidentified. In the water sector, the following needs were noted: an improvement and rationalization of the hydrometric network; additional river gauges and more automatic weather stations to aid in data collection and planning to reduce vulnerability; additional flood warning systems; and additional softwaresuchaswaterware,riverware,andmikebasintoaidinimprovementofwatermanagement. 5.2.5 BarrierstoTechnologyTransferinJamaica ThemainbarriertothetransferoftechnologytoJamaicaisthehighinitialcapitalcostoftechnologies. Thereisaneedforflexiblefinancialmeasuresinorderfornewtechnologiestobeadopted. Attitudes,perceptions,andlackofinformationwerealsohighlightedasakeybarrier.Inparticular,lack ofunderstandingaboutspecifictechnologiesandlackofpoliticalwillpreventthetransferandadoption ofpotentialtechnologies. Lackofdataisaconstraint,particularlywithregardstovulnerabilityissueswhichpreventsadoptionand applicationsoftechnologiesforadaptation.Thelackofacentraldecisionmakingentitytohandleissues withregardstotechnologywasalsonotedasabarrier. 392
5.2.6 ConclusionsandRecommendations Thistechnologyneedsassessmentwasaninitialexamination;thetechnologyneedsassessmentprocess should be continued and there is a need to revisit this issue. Technology issues as they relate to agriculturehavenotyetbeenexaminedandanindepthanalysisofthetechnologyrequirementsforthe agriculturalsectorisneeded,giventhecriticalroleofthesectortotheJamaicaneconomy.Thereshould alsobeaspecificconsultationwiththeindustrialsectorsothatthespecifictechnologiesforindustrycan beidentifiedandtransferred. Publiceducation,informationandawarenesswithregardstonewtechnologiesneedtobeimproved.It washighlightedthatabiogasprojectinJamaicawasnotverysuccessfulasaresultofalackofeffective public education initiatives. Education and sensitization to new technologies should be targeted at every level of the society, and perhaps there is a need for a specific education and sensitization programmespecificallytailoredforpolicymakers. Theremayalsobeaneedforaclearinghousewithregardstotechnologytobeputintoplace,although raising awareness with specific stakeholders about the UNFCCCs TT: Clear website would aid informationsharingaboutpotentialusefultechnologies. Improvements in the data which is collected was highlighted as concern by many stakeholders. However,itwasagreedthatthelackofdatashouldnotpreventprojectsfromproceeding.TheKingston Area is particularly susceptible to sea level rise, and it was noted that a project looking at the vulnerabilityoftheareashouldbedeveloped. Natural gas technology has been highlighted as a priority for Jamaica, with a proposal for the constructionofanaturalgasterminal.Jamaicashouldalsoexhaustallofitshydropowerpotential,and establishmore windfarms. This wouldhelp reduce thedependencyon fossilfuelsandsave valuable foreign exchange. OTEC technology was highlighted as an area for further investigation, with the possible identification of sites. Many stakeholders identified the need to encourage Jamaican entrepreneursandbusinessintotheenergysectorbutnotedthiswouldrequirefinancialincentivesfor entrepreneursandconsumersaliketouserenewableenergiesratherthanstandardtechnologies. 5.3 CapacityandTechnologicalRequirements,PublicAwareness,andSecondNational Communications As part of the topup enabling activity, a number of baseline studies were conducted to obtain a better understanding of the level of education and understanding about climate change of Jamaican citizens.Anumberofactivitieswereundertaken,including: (v) AninhousefocalpointworkshopontheJamaicaPhaseTwoTopUpactivities.Thepurpose oftheworkshopwastosensitizetherelevantpersonswithintheMeteorologicalServiceto theprojectandthepossibleoutputs. (vi) Aprojectlaunchworkshop.Theobjectivesofthisworkshopwereto:1)aidinreconvening theNationalImplementationCoordinatingUnitforclimatechangeinJamaicaand2)launch phase two by informing participants about climate change, regional concerns, climate changescenarios,andalternativeenergyoptionsforJamaica.
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(vii)
(viii) (ix)
(x) AnotherfocusofthePhase2projectwastoidentifypreliminaryareasforthedesignoftheJamaicas Second National Communication to the UNFCCC. The identification of future capacity needs as they relatetoclimatechangewasalsoacriticalcomponentoftheproject. Overall, the activities aided in facilitating national networks on climate change and promoting the integrationofclimatechangeconcernsintothenationaldevelopmentplanningdialogue. 5.3.1 CapacityandTechnologicalRequirementsforJamaica The preparation of the Initial National Communication of Jamaica identified a number of capacity constraintsanddifficulties.Theseincluded: (i) Inappropriate methodological framework (IPCC 1996 Revised Guidelines) for assessing the GHGemissionsofsmallislandstates; (ii) Lackofexpertise/knowledgeinimplementingtestmethodologiesandestablishingbaseline conditions; (iii) Lackofcountryspecificdataandinadequate/inappropriatestatisticsforsimulationmodels; (iv) Difficulties in identifying experts for multidisciplinary teams to undertake crosssectoral assessments; (v) Very low public awareness of climate change issues and inadequate sensitization to anthropogenicfactorsthatexacerbateclimatevulnerability; (vi) Inadequate private sector support; demonstrated lack of commitment to climate change issues; (vii) Absence of strong academic, research or regional environmental institutions to provide substantivesupportintheprocess. Someofthesecapacityconstraintshadstartedtobeaddressedatthetimeoftheassessment.Three regionalprojectsCPACC,theAdaptingtoClimateChangeintheCaribbeanProject,theMainstreaming AdaptationtoClimateChange andtheestablishmentofaregionalclimatechangecentreareaiding improvedcapacityintheCaribbean.Additionally,manyofthetechnicalissuesraisedhadstartedtobe addressed.Forexample,oneprojectintheCaribbeanwasexaminingthedownscalingofglobalclimate models,thusaidingtheprovisionofdataforsimulationmodels. Among the key difficulties remaining were low public awareness on climate change issues and inadequateprivatesectorsupport. Capacity building on climate change is critical for Jamaica. Capacity building in the right areas will aid Jamaica in not only implementing the Convention and its obligations, but ensuring that the country makestherightdecisionswithrespecttoclimatechange.
AClimateChangeSymposium.Participantsweresensitisedtointernationalissuesrelatedto climatechange,particularlythe10thConferenceofPartiesoftheUNFCCCandtheeffectthat climatechangecouldhaveonenergy,waterresources,coastalresourcesandbiodiversity. Aclimatechangepubliceducationandawarenesssurvey An examination of the systematic observation systems and needs of the Meteorological ServiceofJamaica. Anadaptationandmitigationtechnologyneedsassessment.
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AGEFfundedNationalCapacitySelfAssessment(NCSA)projectinJamaicaexaminedissuesrelatedto capacityissuesandclimatechange.AnumberofskillswereidentifiedintheNCSAreporttoaddressthe physical,socialandeconomicimpactsofclimatechangeandarereproducedinTable5.7. Table5.7:MatrixofRequiredSkillsforClimateChange SkillsRequiredforRespondingtoEconomicImpacts AreaofExpertise Relevant Requirement Sector Human/Economic AllSectors Assessingeconomicimpacts Geographers, Resource/Environmental AllSectors Assessingtheeconomiccosttotheenvironment Economists, EnvironmentalScientist, AllSectors Assessingthescientificimpacttotheenvironment ResourceManagers, AllSectors Managingofresources SkillsRequiredforRespondingtoPhysicalImpacts AreaofExpertise Relevant Requirement Sector Coastalzonemanagement CoastalZone Planning physical use of coastal zone by assessing specialists vulnerabilities&adaptationoptions Coastalmanagers CoastalZone Enforcementofadaptationoptionsforphysicaluse Physicaloceanographers CoastalZone Assessingthevulnerabilityofcoastalseabed Marine/fisheriesscientists CoastalZone Vulnerability assessments of marine ecosystems and marinelife Hydrologists Water Monitoring and predicting availability of water Resources resources Waterresourcespecialists Water Developing strategies for use of water resources Resources basedonclimatechangeconsiderations Hydrogeologists Water Assessmentofaquifersvulnerabilitiesandoptionsto Resources mitigatethem Agroclimatologist Agricultural Provisionoflongtermpredictionsforcrops Agrometeorologists Agricultural Provision of short term predictions to agricultural sector SkillsRequiredforRespondingtoSocialImpacts AreaofExpertise Relevant Requirement Sector Socialscientists Allsectors Assessingimpactsonsociety Populationandcultural Allsectors Impactonpopulationandculture geographers Socialanthropologists Allsectors Relatingpastimpactstofutureplanning Humansecurity Allsectors Planning for response to impacts on human well being Livelihoodspecialist Allsectors Assessmentsonimpactonwellbeing Sustainabledevelopment Allsectors Planningforresponsetoimpacts specialists
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TheNCSAalsoidentifiedandprioritisedkeyclimateissues,andthenidentifiedthecapacityconstraints relatedtothoseclimateissues.Tables5.8and5.9presenttheseresults. Table5.8:IssuesPrioritizationMatrix Issue Scaleof Levelof Abilityto Priority problem concern adequately Ranking* addressissues PublicAwareness&PublicEducation National High Low 1 AssessmentofVulnerabilityof Local High Low 2 CoastalZone FormulationofAdaptationMeasures Local High Low 2 IntegrationofClimateChange National High Low 3 ConcernsintoNationalPolicy AssessmentofvulnerabilityofWater National High Low 2 Resources Vulnerabilityofagriculturalsector National Medium Low 4 Vulnerabilityofhealthsector National Medium Low 4 DevelopNationalActionPlan National High Low 1 TheCleanDevelopmentMechanism National High Medium 3 *1=mostsevereproblems,2=nextmostsevere,etc
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Table5.9:CapacityConstraintsMatrix PriorityIssues Individual PublicAwareness& Staffinglevelof PublicEducation MeteorologicalService needtobeexpandedto adequatelyaddressissue DevelopNational ActionPlan Temporarylossofkey climatechangepersonnel atMeteorologicalService tostudies
CapacityConstraints Institutional Noclimatechangeunit exists
ClimateChangeactivities areadditionalduties sharedwithnormal functionsofFocalPoint
Assessmentof Vulnerabilityof CoastalZone Assessmentof vulnerabilityof WaterResources Integrationof ClimateChange Concernsinto NationalPolicy Vulnerabilityof healthsector Vulnerabilityof agriculturalsector
Trainingrequiredin vulnerabilityassessments andadaptationmeasures Trainingrequiredin vulnerabilityassessments andadaptationmeasures Lowlevelof understandingby relevantpersonnel Trainingrequiredin vulnerabilityassessments andadaptationmeasures Trainingrequiredin vulnerabilityassessments andadaptationmeasures Traininginprojectdesign andrequirements
Adequatefundingwillbe requiredforassessments Adequatefundingwillbe requiredforassessments Lowprioritygivento issue
Systemic DuetoBudgetary constraintsnoadequate fundingfor comprehensive campaign Needforanational climatechange committeetoguide process Needtosourcefunding forprocess. Vulnerability assessmentsnotpartof educationcurriculum Vulnerability assessmentsnotpartof educationcurriculum Lowlevelofpriority giventoissue
CleanDevelopment Mechanism Theissuesofpublicawareness,vulnerabilityofthecoastalzone,anddevelopmentofanationalaction planforclimatechangearethekeyareaswhichneedtobeaddressedintermsofcapacitybuilding. As Jamaica does not produce any fossil fuels and is totally dependent on imports, the cost of energy significantlyimpactstheeconomy.Throughthetechnologyneedsassessmentprocess,anumberofkey mitigationtechnologieswereidentifiedasprioritiesforJamaicafortheenergysector.Thesewere: Naturalgastechnologyforenduseconsumptionandtransport; Dieseltechnologyfornewvehicles; Renewableenergies,includingwind,hydro,solarandphotovoltaic. SeeSection5.2formoreinformation. JamaicalikeallSIDSwillalsorequiretechnologiesforcoastalzoneadaptation.AsnotedinSection5.2, technologiestoprotectfromsealevelrisewillbe required.Seadefencestructures maybeapplicable 397
Adequatefundingwillbe Vulnerability requiredforassessments assessmentsnotpartof educationcurriculum Adequatefundingwillbe Vulnerability requiredforassessments assessmentsnotpartof educationcurriculum StrengtheningofDNA Needforlongterm financingforunit
under certain circumstances. Soft technologies will also have many applications, such as the preservation and regeneration of mangroves and the more effective application of coastal zone managementtechniques.Improveddatacollectionandthereinstatementofthetidalgaugenetwork arealsoneededtoaidinplanningandprojectdesignsthatreducevulnerability. Jamaica also considered the application of various adaptation technologies in the water sector to improveoverallmanagementofthewatersectorandtocombatclimatechange,suchasanimproved hydrometricnetwork;additionalrivergaugesandautomaticweatherstationstoaidindatacollection; additionalwatermanagementsoftware;andimprovedfloodwarningsystems(seeSection5.2). 5.3.2 PublicEducationandAwareness Although low public awareness and inadequate private sector support for climate change issues have beenidentifiedascriticalissuesinJamaica,therearenotenoughfundsallocatedforpublicawareness andeducation.AnynewprojectwhichtheJamaicangovernmentisinvolvedinasitrelatestoclimate changemusthavepubliceducationandawarenessasakeycomponent.Theremayalsobetheneedfor specializedstafftoaddresstheissueofclimatechange. A climate change survey conducted as part of the topup project highlighted the general feeling of complacency and indifference towards climate change and its impacts. The perception of most respondentsinthesurveyrevealedthattheyviewedclimatechangeasachangeorvariationinglobal climate accompanied by changes in temperature and weather patterns. It is clear that there is misunderstandingaboutclimatechange,itscausesanditsimpacts.Electronicmediawasidentifiedas thebestwaytoimproveawarenessaboutclimatechangeapointalsohighlightedinthetechnology needsassessmentworkshops.Thus,anyclimateeducationprogrammemustfocusheavilyontheuseof theelectronicmedia.Thismayinvolvethedevelopmentofapartnershipwithamediahouse. Therewillalsoneedtobeastandaloneclimatechangepublicawarenessprogrammewhicheventually willhavetobeincorporatedintoanoverallenvironmentalawarenessprogramme.Targetingaclimate change programme for the schools will not be difficult, as schools are usually very receptive to such issues.Essaycompetitionsonclimatechangeaswellasthedevelopmentofeducationalmaterialcanbe distributedinschools,andwillbeeffective.Therecouldalsobethedevelopmentofaclimatechange jingleorsongwhichcouldbethethemeforallclimatechangeactivity Fortheclimatechangeeducationandawarenessprogrammetobeeffective,therewillalsoneedtobe synergieswithotherissues.Forexample,thelinkagewithdisastermanagementshouldbeexploited, particularlygiventhefactthatJamaicahasbeenaffectedbyanumberofhurricanes.Ajointstrategy could be developed between the Meteorological Service and the Office of Disaster Preparedness and EmergencyManagement(ODPEM)withregardstoclimatechangeanddisastermanagement.Linkages alsoneedtobemadewiththeenergysectorforthedevelopmentofjointprogrammes. There could also be the development of short climate points which could be delivered in the broadcastmediaattheendofeveryweatherforecast.Thesepointscouldfocus,forexample,onthe effectofa1metresealevelriseorwhatthegreenhouseeffectis,orwhattheJamaicasGHGemissions areandwhatcanbedonetoreducethem.
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Therewillbealsoaneedtosensitizethecorporatesectorastotheimportanceofclimatechange.A consultation with the corporate sector on climate change issues may be required. Corporate sponsorshipcouldbesoughtforthedevelopmentoftheseclimatepoints. Thedevelopmentofashortdocumentaryonclimatechangeshouldalsotakeplace.Thiscoulddiscuss theissueofclimatechange,highlightthevulnerableareasinJamaica,adaptationoptionsandrequired changesinbehaviour,aswellasfocusonenergyissues.Suchaprojectshouldbeajointventurewith the respective offices responsible for disaster management, water, energy, agriculture, and the Meteorological Service. Corporate sponsorship may have to be obtained to facilitate such a venture. Funding for public awareness may have to come from external sources. All climate change related projects,however,shouldincludesubstantialfundsforpublicawareness. ConclusionsandRecommendations Public awareness and education is a key component for any climate change programme; however funding may be a constraint. Thus, in designing the Second National Communication, sufficient funds must be put aside for public awareness. There is a need for greater collaboration with agencies who haveaninterestedwithclimatechangetoensureanintegrativeapproachtoclimatechange,particularly asitrelatestopublicawareness. With vulnerability being a key issue, it is clear there is room for the development of a vulnerability projectinJamaica.Therearetwopossibleprojectswhichcouldbeputforward.Thefirstrelatestothe vulnerabilityofthetourismsectorandclimatechange.Thenorthcoastcouldbeusedasapilotsite,and socialeconomicissuesconsidered,giventheamountofpersonsemployedbytheindustry.Thesecond project relates to the vulnerability of Kingston and surrounding areas to sea level rise. Thus issues relatedsealevelrise,theharbourandairportcanbeaddressed.Theprojectsshouldincludefundsfor publicawarenessandshouldbesubmittedtotheGEFforfunding. 5.4 ReviewoftheInitialNationalCommunication The Meteorological Service administered the GEFfunded project to prepare Jamaicas Initial National Communication from October 1998 to the submission date in November 2000. A project steering committee consisted of representatives from various government departments. The University of the WestIndiesprovidedoversightandmonitoringforimplementationoftheproject.Anassessmentofthe InitialNationalCommunicationfollows. Nationalcircumstances:Chapter1providescomprehensivedataonthehistoryofJamaica,population growth, economic trends, and climatic data. The national circumstances table lacks information with regards to the population in absolute poverty; however information on the percentage of the populationinpovertyislocatedlaterinthechapter.Thischapterisverycomprehensive,andprovides alltherelevantinformationrequiredunderdecision10/CP.2. GHGinventory:UsingtheIPCC1996RevisedGuidelinesforpreparingGHGinventories,Jamaicaselected 1994asthebaseyearforitsinventory.Jamaicasemissionsofcarbondioxidein1994were8,585Gg, methane,58.47Gg,andnitrousoxide,344Gg.Whiletheinventoryisconsideredquiteaccurate,there isquerywithregardstomethaneemissionsintheagriculturesector.Themethodologicalapproachfor calculatingriceproductionemissionswasappliedtosugarcaneproduction,giventhat17,056hectares ofsugarcanewasproducedusinganintermittentfloodedsystem.However,therelatedscalingfactors 399
usedinthecalculationsareforriceandnotsugarcane.Inaddition,sugarcaneisintermittentlyflooded, andnotcontinuouslyfloodedlikerice.Therearethesomeassumptionsandapproximationswhichhave thus affected the accuracy of the calculation of the methane emissions. These assumptions and approximationsneedtobeaddressed. Vulnerability and adaptation: Given the vulnerability of Jamaica as a small island developing state, an entire section of the national communication highlights this issue. The chapter gives an initial investigationoftheeffectsofclimatechangeonkeysectorsinJamaicaandhighlightsthevulnerability ofthecoastalzone,waterandagriculturesectorstoachangingclimate.Initialadaptationoptionsare identified.Manyoftheissuesrelatedthegeneralstepswhichthecountryhastakentoimplementthe Conventionsareaddressed. Information and technology needs: The National Communication identifies the constraints which occurredduringthepreparationprocess,andprovidesrecommendationsfornationalactions,aswellas identifyinginformationgapsandtechnologicalneeds,andprojectsuggestions. JamaicafulfilleditsrequirementstotheUNFCCCwithregardstotheInitialNationalCommunication.In many instances, considerably more information was provided than is required by the guidelines for national communications as outlined in Decision 10/CP.2. Additional information could have been provided on the status of the renewable energy sector, while other vulnerable sectors such as the tourism and health were not considered comprehensively. Some project proposals with detailed budgetscouldhavebeenannexedsothatpotentialdonorscouldprovidefundingforpriorityprojects. DesignoftheSecondNationalCommunication Decision 17/CP8 contained new guidelines to be used for the preparation of second, and where appropriatethirdnationalcommunications. Theguidelinesarethusmoredetailedthanthoseforthe Initial National Communication and will require additional capacity. It was noted that the project managerfortheSecondNationalCommunicationsforJamaicashouldhavehadconsiderableexperience intheConventionprocess,andinthepreparationoftheInitialNationalCommunication. Among the improvements and/or elements planned as a result of the analyses of the Initial National Communicationwere: Useofnewrecommendedbaseyearof2000fortheGHGinventory; Inclusion of two other years, e.g., 2002 and 2004, so that trend analyses can be conducted, along with abatement planning and options and inclusion of programmes and measures to mitigateclimatechange; TrainingonGHGinventorypreparationandexaminationofpossibilitiesforinstitutionalizingthe preparationoftheGHGinventory; Further examination of issues related to climate change and disaster management for the coastalzone,water,andagriculturalsectors; Analysis of the impacts of climate change on health and tourism, and the possible socio economicimpactsonsociety;and IncorporationofelementsandoutputsoftheMACCproject; Incorporationofconcreteprojectproposalsrequiringfunding.
400
These improvements were discussed during the national consultations and stock taking process that tookplaceaspartofthepreparatoryphasetodesignandplantheSecondNationalCommunication.
401
Chapter5References NationalMeteorologicalService(2000).JamaicasFirstNationalCommunicationtotheUnitedNations FrameworkConventiononClimateChange,GovernmentofJamaica.November2000. Ministry of Commerce. Science and Technology (2004). Draft Power/Electricity Policy for Jamaica. September2004.
402
Appendix1:ProjectConceptforImprovementoftheSystematicObservationSystemsofthe MeteorologicalServiceoftheGovernmentofJamaica Background: Through the Global Environmental Facility and the United Nations Development Programme,theGovernmentofJamaicareceivedUS$100,000tofurthercapacitybuildingactivitiesas they related to the Initial National Communication of the Government of Jamaica under the United NationsFrameworkConventiononClimateChange.Oneoftheissuesaddressedwasimprovementof the current systematic observation systems of the Meteorological Service of the Government of Jamaica. Currently, there are currently seven automatic weather stations deployed in Jamaica. The weather stationsarelocatedat:(i)NegrilPoint,Westmoreland,(ii)MontegoBay,StJames,(iii)NormanManley International Airport,Kingston, (iv)MorantPoint, StThomas,(v)PedroBank,(vi)Folly Point,Portland and (vii) Discovery Bay, St Anns. Through the Caribbean Planning to Adaptation to Climate Change (CPACC)project,twoautomaticweatherstationsandtidalgaugeswereobtained.Onewasinstalledat Port Royal and the other at Discovery Bay. However, the seven weather stations are not enough to ensurethatacomprehensivedatabasecanbecreatedwithregardstotheclimateinJamaica. Project Rationale and Objectives: An improvement in the systematic observation system will improve theoverallclimatedatabaseinJamaicaandallowJamaicato:(i)moreeffectivelyparticipateinGlobal Climate ObservationSystems, and(ii)groundtruthdatafromJamaicas DopplerRADAR. Additional automaticweatherstationswillassistinimprovingcriticaldatawhichcanthenbeutilizedforavariety of purposes such as disaster management and agriculture. The outputs of the assessment on observation systems in Jamaica recommended that 13 automatic weather stations be added to the currentcomplement.Theseproposedadditionalstationswillallowforamorecomprehensivecoverage ofJamaica,withatleastoneautomaticweatherstationineachparish.Theproposedlocationofeach automaticweatherstationislistedinTable1.Inadditiontotheinstallationofthestations,therewould be the associated training, with regards to operation and maintenance of the automatic weather stations. Expected Outcomes: With the addition of the new automatic weather stations the overall operation andfunctioningoftheMeteorologicalServicewillimprove.TheMeteorologicalServicewillbeableto more effectively obtain information with regards to the local weather conditions and improve the qualityofclimaticdata.Theadditionalweatherstationswillalsoimprovethecountrysplanningasit relatestoanumberofsectorsoftheeconomy Budget:AutomaticweatherstationswhicharemanufacturedbyMicrocomDesignInc,Maryland,and USA have been identified as being suitable for Jamaica. These automatic weather stations can be connected by satellite so that data can be remotely connected and transmitted. The cost of one automatic weather station is US$10,703. Table 2 gives an estimated budget for installing the 13 weatherstations,alongwithassociatedmaintenance,shipping,andtrainingcosts.
403
Table1:ProposedLocationsofAdditionalWeatherStations Location Parish SavannahLaMar Westmoreland Lucea Hanover Cambridge StJames BlackRiver StElizabeth Balaclava StElizabeth Alexandra StAnns Oracabessa StMary AnnottoBay StMary PortlandRidge Clarendon AlligatorPond StElizabeth Mandeville Manchester WorthyPark StCatherine OchoRios StAnns Table2:EstimatedBudget Item Cost(US$) 13MicrocomAutomaticWeatherStations 139,139 Spares(3Towersand3StaticDissipaters) 3,582 ShippingandDocumentation 3,120 InstallationandTraining 5,000 Total 150,841
404
CHAPTER 6: CONSTRAINTS AND GAPS, AND RELATED FINANCIAL, TECHNICAL AND CAPACITY BUILDING NEEDS CapacityandtechnicalconstraintsrelatedtotheNationalCommunicationsProcess,alongwithbarriers to technology transfer, are discussed in detail in Chapter 5. Chapter 5 (Appendix 1) also includes a project concept for the improvement of the systematic observation systems of the Meteorological ServiceofJamaica.
The remainder of this chapter is devoted to proposed improvements to the GHG inventory process plannedaspartoftheThirdorfutureNationalCommunications. 6.1DataGapsandSuggestedImprovementstotheNationalGHGInventory EnergySector Compile fuel use and other activity data (production) by at least four digit ISIC codes. Where quantities are small and not readily or cost effectively compiled or disaggregated, the data collection should be geared to providing aggregates based on ISIC codes. The current compilation of fuel consumption data is based on sectors (which can be identified with ISIC codes) and geography (namely, rural and urban) which cannot be identified with economic activity(ISICcodes). Datacollectionshouldbeimprovedinordertoallowbetterdistinctionsofdieselfuelusetobe made between onroad and off road transportation activities and other fuel combustion activitiesbysector. Fuelconsumptiondataforsomeminingactivities(bauxiteminingbythirdpartycompanies)and forlimeproductionshouldbecaptured. FuelconsumptionforaircraftregisteredinJamaicashouldcontinuetobecompiled.Thiswillbe even more critical after closure of one of the domestic aerodromes and its relation to the NormanManleyInternationalAirport. Productiondataforlimeproductionshouldbereportedforallmanufacturingfacilities. Thevehiclefleetdatabasecontainsmanyseriousdiscrepancieswhichshouldbecorrectedover time by implementing quality assurance and quality control procedures to avoid data entry errors (weights, vehicle age, manufacturers etc.) and minimize other errors (fuel type, VIN numbers). IndustrialProcessesandProductUseSector Although the uncertainty in emissions from cement manufacture is low, some enhancement couldbemadebyusingchemicalanalysesforclinkerproduced. 405
Import data for HFCs did not always identify all items in shipments. Because of the wide variationandrelativelyhighglobalwarmingpotentialsforHFCs,suchidentificationisessential forobtainingmorereliableestimates. HFCshavebeenandarebeingusedinfiresuppressionsystemsbutdataonthesystemsinplace arelacking. Paintproductiondatathatarecompiledandreportedandpaintspecificationsdonotallowthe key environmental issue regarding paints to be addressed. The current specifications include volatilematterwhichincludeswaterinsteadofisolatingvolatileorganiccompounds.Revision of the standards based on paint types such as those used in North America or Europe (but adaptedtoJamaicasmarket)isrecommended.
Agriculture,ForestryandOtherLandUseSector Theassignmentsoflanduseandchangesinlandusecategoriesarebasedonoutdatedsatellite imagery.Updatedsatellite imagery data complementedbysuitablegroundbasedsurveysand permanentsampleplotstomeasuregrowthratesareneededinordertoimprovethequalityof the land use change data and to develop countryspecific growth rates. This information will significantly improve the accuracy of the inventories as well as inform landuse policies and forestrymanagement. Agriculturalcensusdataarecompiledapproximatelyevery10yearsandmechanismsshouldbe establishedtoallowestimatesintheinterveningyearsforthosedatathatareimportantbutnot currently compiled. These include data for goats and sheep as well as manure management practicesforallanimalsandtheamountsofcropresiduesremaininginthefields. Information on the wood conversion (i.e., removals for various purposes such as fuel wood, timber, and agriculture) on privately owned lands is lacking. The design of suitable, viable solutions to obtain such data is challenging but options that should be considered include legislationandwelldesigned,periodicsurveys. WasteSector Reliabledataontheloading(volumeandBODorCOD)ofreleasesfromsewagetreatmentand industrial wastewater plants are lacking. The enactment and enforcement of Wastewater and Sludge Regulations being drafted by NEPA should remedy this situation. For instance, flow meters could be required at sewage treatment facilities and/or facilities required to regularly submitinformation. Reliable data for the types and quantities of industrial waste generated and disposed of in municipalandindustrialwastedisposalsitesarelacking. Some data for municipal waste are now being compiled by the NSWMA, but ongoing and additional determination and estimates of waste stream disposal methods (collected,
406
uncollected, treatment methods including open burning) will assist in making more reliable inventoryestimatesaswellasinformwastereductionandotherwastemanagementstrategies. Enactment of Pollutant Release and Transfer Regulations will assist in providing data for air emissions,tradeeffluentandsolidwastereleasesandtransfersandtransfersandalsoprovidea mechanismforongoingcompilationandarchivingofthesedata. Additionalinformationonpopulationaccordingtoincomegroupsandthedegreeofutilization ofsewagetreatmentsystems(sewered,notsewered,pitlatrines)byparishandurbanandrural areasisneeded.STATINandPIOJneedtocollectandpresentdatainthesameformatannually. Data on the quantities and disposal and treatment methods of clinical and industrial solid wastesarelacking.TheAirQualityRegulations(2006)undertheNRCAActshouldimprovesome ofthedataavailability(e.g.,whenwasteisincinerated)forfutureinventories. While challenging, NEPA needs to ensure that small facilities which do not fall within the licensingsystemoftheAirQualityRegulations(2006)usethebestavailabletechnologyand/or bestpracticestooperatetheirfacilities.
407
Chapter6References Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change in National Development Planning (Caribbean): http://www.oas.org/macc/ National Communications Support Programme (2006). The National Communication Process Resource Kit.UNDP/UNEPNationalCommunicationsSupportProgramme,NewYork,USA. NationalMeteorologicalService(2000).JamaicasFirstNationalCommunicationtotheUnitedNations FrameworkConventiononClimateChange,GovernmentofJamaica.November2000. Chapter14References
1HumanDevelopmentReport2007/2008,UNDP(basedon2005data) 2 PIOJ, 2009. Vision 2030 Jamaica: National Development Plan. Planning Institute of Jamaica ISBN9789768103284
3 4 5 6
STATINWebSite,Endofyearpopulation,2008 JamaicaSurveyofLivingConditions2007,TableA1 Vision2030JamaicaNationalDevelopmentPlan
Davisetal.,2008.FinalReport,JamaicasGreenhouseGasEmissionsInventory2000to2005. PreparedfortheMeteorologicalServices,JamaicabyClaudeDavis&Associatesinassociation with Owen Evelyn, Forestry Department, Leslie A. Simpson, CARDI and Ianthe T. Smith, Environmental&EngineeringManagersLimited.
7
MEM, 2009. (Draft) National Carbon Emissions Trading Policy, (August, 2009), available at www.mem.gov.jm AvailableattheForestryDepartmentwebsite222.forestry.gov.jm
8 9
MinistryofTransportandWorkswebsite: www.mtw.gov.jm/general_information/reports/reports.aspx
10 11 12 13
ForestryDepartmentwebsite:www.forestry.gov.jm/ InformationonLEAPisavailableatwww.energycommunity.org. PopulationCensus2001JamaicaVolume5PartA,StatisticalInstituteofJamaica
Jamaica Survey of Living Conditions 2007. A Joint Publication of the Planning Institute of Jamaica(PIOJ)andtheStatisticalInstituteofJamaica(STATIN).
Residential Consumer End Use Survey, Volume 1 Household Energy & Transport, DRAFT REPORTPreparedfor:ThePetroleumCorporationofJamaicabyPlanningInstituteofJamaica (PIOJ)andtheStatisticalInstituteofJamaica(STATIN).
15 16
14
MITEC(undated).TheMITEC4MBulbProject,PreliminaryProjectReport USEPAhttp://www.epa.gov/otaq/models.htm
408
Davisetal.,2008.FinalReport,JamaicasGreenhouseGasEmissionsInventory2000to2005. PreparedfortheMeteorologicalServices,JamaicabyClaudeDavis&Associatesinassociation with Owen Evelyn, Forestry Department, Leslie A. Simpson, CARDI and Ianthe T. Smith, Environmental&EngineeringManagersLimited. EcoTec, 2006. Hospital Energy Audit Project: Summary & Efficiency Improvement Investment Packages. Report prepared for Energy Efficiency Unit, Petroleum Corporation of Jamaica JPS, 2009. Jamaica Public Service Company Limited, 20092014 Tariff Review Application, availableat http://www.our.org.jm/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=808%3Ajps tariffreview20092014determination&catid=156%3Adeterminationnotices&Itemid=248 Dipl.Ing. Detlef Loy, 2004. Energypolicy Framework Conditions for Electricity Markets and Renewable Energies, 21 Country Analyses. Eschborn, June 2004. Published by: Deutsche Gesellschaft fr Technische Zusammenarbeit (GTZ) GmbH, Division Environment and Infrastructure,POBox5180,65726Eschborn,Germany.Internet:http://www.gtz.de EPIC, 2007. EconoPower International Corporation brochure 041007. www.EPIC POWER.com. US EPA. AP 42, Fifth Edition, Compilation of Air Pollutant Emission Factors, Volume 1: StationaryPointandAreaSources,availableathttp://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/ap42/index.html
23 24 25 26 22 21 20 19 18
17
PIOJ/STATIN,2006.ResidentialConsumerEndUseSurvey. PersonalCommunication,J.Dawkins,MTW,2009. Personalcommunication,S.Smellie,UWI,2009. Mukherji&Associates,2004.SugarEthanolStudyforJamaica
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Government of Jamaica, Second National Communication of Jamaica To The United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change, 6-2011

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Government of Jamaica, Second National Communication of Jamaica To The United Nations Framework Convention On Climate Change, 6-2011

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GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA

Safewaterstoragedrums;and Moreproactiveactionsinpressingthecaseformitigationofgreenhousegases,especiallybythe developedcountries,inordertopreventincreasedtemperatures.

68 per cent of women in the reproductive age group of 15-49 years

Since2000,thelargestpopulationconcentrationsarefoundintheparishesofKingstonandStAndrew (24.7percent)andStCatherine(18.5percent),withthelowestconcentrationinHanover(2.6percent). FurtherdetailsareshowninTable1.2below. Table1.8:ComparisonofEndofYearPopulationsinJamaica(2000&2007)

NominalpercapitaGDPhasaveragedapproximatelyUS$3300.00from20002007.Constantpercapita GDPhasbeenlower,averagingUS$1300.00overthesameperiod(Figure1.4). Figure1.4:ConstantandNominalperCapitaIncome,Jamaica(200007)

251. 66.4 221. 7 8 Source:PIOJandIDPs2007

2.2 OverviewandSummaryofJamaicasGreenhouseGasInventory 2.2.1 Comparisonbetweenthereferenceyearsof1994and2000 Overallnationalandsectoralemissionsfor2000aregiveninTable2.1andareillustratedinFigure2.1. Figure2.1:SummaryofNationalGHGEmissionsinJamaica(2000)

Theemissionstrendsfor200005forcementandlimeproduction,aswellasnonenergyproductsfrom fuelsandsolventuse(i.e.,lubricants,paraffinwax,solventsandasphaltproduction)areshowninFigure 2.15.

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

5,296 347 5,513 25,825

3,980 525 6,750 30,131

3,610 1,733 10,007 22,114

4,702 1,171 20,035 16,449

CHARGE(KG) 1.5 75 200 104 200600 0.4

CFCPOPULATION 80,000 500 12 60%

Table2.44:Landuse/coverconversionmatrixforJamaica,19899817 From GHG Class Forest PF SF WL SL SW MG PP To PF Forest Land

SF WL Forest SL SW MG PP BB BC Land BF Mixed use/cover BS 1998 CS SC BA BE BR Non- FC Forest HW PC WA SI

3 241 229 359 90 2018 16 172 28 31 67 109 111 385

139 193 156 378 27

46 90 230 911 1301 357 76 1725 250 979 947 123 47

30 101 29 1754 657

Total loss (ha) 486 3102 133 207 111

30086 331489 85162 274244 12797 51468 5963 429634 1096416

30084 331463 85073 274389 12789 51507 6385 430142 1096416

30083 331436 84984 274533 12781 51546 6807 430651 1096416

30081 331410 84894 274678 12773 51585 7229 431159 1096416

Disturbed broadleaf Forest Land

Non-Fore st l and use

171.3 20.0 191.3 287.1 510.4 797.5

Sub-total 150.2 347.6 617.9

Hardwoods - natural forest & plantation

Hardwoods 1.42 10.95 2.53 19.47 3.95 30.43

FAOSTAT 598710 591425 17395

National Class 1 PF SF WL Forest SL SW

0.0 0.0 270.2 38462.7 226.5 21288.7

71.2 14353.8 19.0 1930.2

118.8 20551.5 88.4 8982.3

42.9 11161.6 81.5 8283.1

270.2 55468.5 226.5 23010.4

82.6 5450.0 309.1 26738.6

24.8 1465.3 106.3 9748.4

0.0 0.0 402.0 18157.6

0.0 0.0 100.8 16906.9

0.0 0.0 94.6 14384.8

0.0 0.0 234.7 31157.2

0.0 0.0 149.2 20910.0

0.0 0.0 579.2 83358.9

427600 1096416 74674

Sub Total Non-Forest Land Use

Sub Total Total

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Tropical dry forest Tropical dry forest

Table2.76: UncertaintyLevelsforParametersUsedIntheDirectandIndirectEmissionsofN2O fromManagedSoilsinJamaica

InstitutionalStrengtheningforEnhancedEnvironmentalManagementofKingstonHarbour,ComponentB, ImprovingTheEnvironmentalPerformanceOfIndustriesDischargingToKingstonHarbour,Preparedforthe NationalEnvironmentandPlanningAgencybyClaudeDavis&Associates

CH4emissionsfromdomesticandindustrialsolidwastedisposalfacilitiesfor199105arereflected inTable2.84. Table2.84: EstimatedMethaneEmissionsfromMunicipalandIndustrialSolidWasteDisposal SitesinJamaica(199005)

Summaryofresults Tables2.90to2.93presentasummaryofthetotalgreenhousegasemissionsfromthewastesector. Table2.90:TotalCarbonDioxideEmissions(Gg)fromtheWasteSectorinJamaica(200005)

Table2.98: PercentageUncertaintyinMethane,CarbonDioxideandNitrousOxideEstimations forMedicalandIndustrial/PrivateSectorWasteIncineration