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1. Company Overview
India Cements Limited (ICL) is a cement manufacturing company in India. It was established in the year 1946 and the first plant was set up at Sankarnagar in Tamil Nadu in 1949. Since then it has grown in stature to seven plants spread over Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh thereby catering to major markets in South India and Maharashtra. The company has recently commissioned a plant in Rajasthan to tap the Northern markets. The capacities of its plants, as on March 2011, have reached 15.6 million tons per annum. It is the market leader with a market share of 28% in the South.
D. Competitors
The major competitors of India Cements across the markets it operates are: ACC, Ambuja Cements, Dalmia Cements, Madras Cements, Chettinad Cements, Raasi Cement and Ultratech Cement
E. Auditors
The auditors of the firm are: Messrs. Brahmayya & Co., Chartered Accountants, Chennai. Messrs. P.S. Subramania Iyer & Co., Chartered Accountants, Chennai.
Financial Accounting
G. Competitive strength
India Cements sells nearly 90% of its produce in the South India market. This makes it extremely dependant on the vagaries of one region but it has a predominant market share of 28% here. This has allowed the company to keep prices high in a scenario of low demand. The company is over 60 years old which has allowed it to create a strong distribution network. The ownership of an IPL team provides it with a channel for publicity and is a valuable long term investment for the company. The company also owns a shipping division which allows it to place itself competitively with its peers in terms of transportations of fuel (coal).
H. The Peer
Prism Cement operates its plant from Madhya Pradesh. It has a capacity of 5.6 MT vs 15.5 MT of India Cements. The company also has a tiles division which accounts for 40% of its top line and bottom line. Considering the difference in their area of business and the fact that they compete in different regions, we feel it may not be a proper peer.
Financial Accounting
While the additional capacity of 1.5 MT was commissioned due to the tight market conditions the overall production was lower than that of previous year (10.15 MT vs 10.4 MT for FY 2010). The company has thus faced two pronged challenges in terms of low demand and high input costs effects which are reflected in the analysis below. The Company has access to huge limestone resources and plans to expand capacity by optimisation of existing plants as well as by acquisitions. India Cements Ltd has taken steps to upgrade/ enhance its cement production capacity to 15.6 million tonnes and has recently commissioned a plant in Rajasthan which will allow it to tap the Northern markets. The company has setup a 50 MW power plant in Tamil Nadu and orders have been placed for a similar capacity power plant in Andhra Pradesh both of which provide energy security at economic cost. It has also taken steps to reduce volatility in supply of coal, which is major fuel for its plants, through securing additional coal linkages from domestic coal companies and through mining rights for coal in Indonesia. The company during the year initiated steps to set up a division for infrastructure activities to boost cement consumption. The Division is in the process of finalizing the main areas of focus and is likely to commence activities during the current year. It is expected that the overall industry can possibly recover to normal capacity levels over the next 2 to 3 years. However, the industry in South can only be cautiously optimistic as the imbalance in demand supply position may take a long time to correct. Andhra Pradesh a major region for this firms sale (accounting for nearly 25% of the sales) has been racked with uncertainty due to Telengana demand which has led to a slowdown in projects there. With this issue still yet unresolved, the future is quite uncertain.
3. Trend Analysis
Analysis of the Profit after Tax/Revenue ratio We have analyzed the companies from the period of 2002. An analysis of the ratio of PAT/Revenue shows negative figures till 2005. In these years the average capacity utilization of the industry was between 70 75%. The GDP growth rates hovered between 4 6% during these years and profitability of the sector was severely affected. Meanwhile India Cements had amalgamated certain subsidiaries into it and had taken on their debt. This led to severed pressure on the margins. In FY 2003 and FY 2004 there was a thrust on infrastructure creation like Golden Quadrilateral Project were announced and certain sops for housing were announced. The industry now anticipated better days ahead. Because of the tough times previously no significant capacity had been added in the interim period. The boom period lasted from FY 2006 and till FY 2008. There was a tremendous growth in infrastructure and the resulting imbalance in demand and supply of cement led to an increase in cement realization rates. The capacity utilization jumped to ~90% in FY 2006 to nearly 100% in FY 2008. The ratio reached a decadal peak of 0.21 for India Cements and 0.27 for Prism Cements. The profitability shows a downtrend in FY 2009. While the demand was robust, cost of raw materials like imported coal and oil underwent a huge increase. In FY2010 excess capacity in South started coming into picture (companies had invested in increasing capacity during the boom years) so that by FY 2011 the utilization
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Financial Accounting
for the South dropped to 66% leading to a severe cut in profitability. Due to rising finance cost there has been slowdown in investments also which has added to the overall problems of the industry. Analysis of Expenses/ Revenue Over the years India Cements has had higher expenses by revenue ratio to Prism Cement. Prism Cement operates in Northern India which has a higher ratio of demand to supply than South which broadly reflects in the expense to revenue trend.
Analysis of Revenue In line with the analysis above, the revenue for both companies shows a robust growth rate till FY 2008. The positive macro picture aided the huge growth and India Cements revenue doubled in three years from FY 2006 to FY 2008. Over the past 2 years growth has been tepid and in fact for the last financial year there has been a negative growth in the revenues. The contrasting growth of Prism Cement can be attributed to its tile division which makes up for 40% of its bottom line. The graphs of total revenue over the years, revenue growth rate and expense growth rate are presented in the appendix. The expense growth rate of the two companies is nearly similar.
Financial Accounting
its expansion activities like setting up new plants (in Rajasthan), power plants (in Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh). Prism however has improved its cash position by 3.62 times post its amalgamation with its subsidiaries. Loans and Advances This has shown a 98% increase over the past 4 years for India Cements. In particular, Advances for Goods increased by over 115 times and the Advances to Subsidiaries increased by 206% over the same period. Prism on the other hand, amalgamated its subsidiaries into the parent company leading to a 380% increase in Loans and Advances.
5. Ratio Analysis
Comparison of Return on Equity The return on equity (RoE) has decreased from 19% to 2% over the period of our analysis from 2008 to 2011. This is due to the reduced profit margins in the business as a result of escalating raw material costs & lower sales. The RoE of Prism Cement has also declined from 39% to a lowly 8% over the same period highlighting the same issue. The RoE of Prism Cements is marginally higher than India Cements due to a higher leverage as illustrated by the Basic DuPont Analysis. Basic DuPont Analysis The Basic DuPont Analysis also reaffirms our analysis so far. The Profit Margin of India Cements has dipped from 21% to 2% while the Asset Turnover and Financial Leverage (Equity Multiplier) have remained flattish at 44% and 195% respectively. Prism Cement on the other hand increased its Leverage from 134% to 271% while its profit margin dipped from 27% to 3%. The Asset Turnover remained more or less constant at 104%. This reduced its RoE by 31%. Analysis of Turnover Ratios Inventory Turnover Ratio reduced by 73% during 2008-11. A reduction in sales volume due to the oversupply in the southern region & reduced demand further exacerbated the problem of rising inventories. Prism Cement also followed a similar trend with the Inventory Turnover Ratio dropping by 59% due to the same issues. The capacity utilization of the Cement industry fell to 76% in 2011 from 85% to tackle this issue of inventory buildup. Net Operating Assets Turnover Ratio registered a marginal drop of 17% to 0.56 largely due to a reduction in financial assets (a 92% decrease in cash in particular). Prism Cement on the other hand took on a lot of financial liabilities onto its balance sheet post the amalgamation with its subsidiaries in 2010. Its Net Operating Assets increased as a result by 4.7 times and the turnover ratio fell by 33%. Asset Turnover Ratio for India Cements has dipped marginally from 49% to 44% as the sales have increased by a lowly 15% over the period while the total assets have gone by 25% mostly due to an increase of 36% in the total debt. Similarly Prism Cement also registered a marginal drop in the asset turnover ratio of 4% mostly due to the lower growth in sales because of a challenging economic environment. Analysis of Liquidity Ratios Current Ratio at India Cements also depicts a similar story with the ratio dropping by 36% to a value of 0.67. The main change seems to have come from a steep decrease in the Cash and Bank Balance by 92%. Prism Cement is also witnessed a 50% drop in its Current Ratio which now stands at 1.22.
Financial Accounting
Quick Ratio further highlights this problem of liquidity. The ratio for India Cements has reduced by 58% to 0.32. A 51% rise in the inventory position has further aggravated the liquidity problem. The supply overhang in southern India leading to a decrease in sales volume has led to a steep increase in inventory. Prism also registered a 57% drop in the Quick Ratio over the same period largely due the same reasons Long Term Debt and Interest Coverage Ratios Interest Coverage Ratio at India Cements shows a rather disturbing dip of 82%. The ratio, which now stands at 1.62, shows that the company is barely generating enough cash to meet its debt payments. This can be attributed to the rising interest rates and increasing debt in the balance sheet. Prism Cement added debt onto its balance sheet from 2010 and currently has an interest coverage ratio of 2.3. Long Term Debt to Equity Ratio at India Cements has reduced by 42% to 0.51. Though the debt has increased over the past 4 years, this has been supported by an increase in reserves and surplus. Besides that most of the increase in debt is through short term loans (cash credit facility increased 5 times in FY11 to 277 crores). Prism Cement on the other hand, which carried no debt initially, increased its ratio to 0.76 after its amalgamation with its subsidiaries in 2010.
6. Conclusion
While India Cements is a market leader in the South, and is a regular dividend paying company there are certain reservations in investing: a) Uncertain Revenue Outlook: Overcapacity: The overhang of oversupply is expected to last for the next 2 years. This will affect the sales growth. The company is focused on South India which is now well supplied. Input cost: Oil and coal costs are highly volatile and the current economic scenario pose a high cost pressure on the firm leading to low margins. Cash inflows to the firm are dipping due to lower margins. This coupled with high finance charges (because of rising interest rates) poses a serious threat to the company in terms of meeting its obligations. Due to the grim outlook on the infrastructure sector in general the company may find it difficult to generate sales volume growth in the near future. b) Having said that, the setting up of captive power plants and leased mines in Indonesia would lead to lower costs in the medium to long term. The setting up of new cement plant in Rajasthan will allow the company to tap the Northern markets. Due to these measures we expect India Cement to improve its performance significantly in the minimum to long term. Thus, on the basis of points as mentioned above, we expect the stock to underperform its peers in the short term.
Financial Accounting
0.02 0.44 0.51 0.01 1.95 0.53 0.56 0.29 2.22 0.60 1.62 0.67 0.32 13.92 25.87 7.51 48 74
0.09 0.50 0.54 0.05 1.84 0.57 0.65 0.37 12.49 0.52 4.42 0.97 0.57 15.03 23.95 25.93 14 38
0.12 0.49 0.61 0.06 1.94 0.59 0.65 0.38 15.32 0.55 7.49 0.69 0.43 9.82 36.67 26.36 14 50
0.21 0.49 0.88 0.10 1.91 0.65 0.67 0.44 23.97 0.55 9.03 1.06 0.77 9.93 36.26 27.47 13 49
0.03 1.04 0.76 0.03 2.71 0.34 1.73 0.59 1.95 0.97 2.28 1.22 0.79 12.83 28.07 12.95 28 56
0.09 1.09 0.39 0.10 2.24 0.41 1.80 0.74 5.11 0.69 8.12 1.39 0.95 13.55 26.57 14.81 24 51
0.15 0.75 0.00 0.11 1.32 0.50 1.52 0.76 4.31 0.00 47.76 1.92 1.44 0.00 0.00 26.28 14 14
0.27 1.08 0.00 0.29 1.34 0.57 2.58 1.47 8.1 0.00 99.67 2.44 1.84 264.01 1.36 31.66 11 13
Financial Accounting
1. Return on Equity
0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 India Cement Prism Cement
3. Asset Turnover
1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 India Cement Prism Cement
Financial Accounting
4. Return on Assets
0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 India Cement Prism Cement
5. Leverage - Measure 1
3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 India Cement Prism Cement
Financial Accounting
7. Net Operating Asset Turnover 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 India Cement Prism Cement
8. Return on Net Operating Assets 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 India Cement Prism Cement
9. Earnings per Share 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 India Cement Prism Cement
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Financial Accounting
10. Debt to Equity Ratio 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 India Cement Prism Cement
11. Interest Coverage 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 India Cement Prism Cement
12. Current Ratio 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 India Cement Prism Cement
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Financial Accounting
13. Quick Ratio 2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 2008 14. Debt Collection Period 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 India Cement Prism Cement 2009 2010 2011 India Cement Prism Cement
15. Debtor Turnover 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 India Cement Prism Cement
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Financial Accounting
16. Inventory Turnover 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 India Cement Prism Cement
17. Inventory Holding Period 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 India Cement Prism Cement
18. Operating Cycle 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 India Cement Prism Cement
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Financial Accounting
Production (in Million Tonnes) In Karnataka following data is available as of 31 March 2010: 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1.5 1.4 3 2.26 2.5 4.4 3.6 5.6 4 7.09 6.5
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India Cement produces nearly 90% of its cement in these two states. Cement industry trends in India, figures in million tonnes (past 5 years): 300 250 204 200 167 150 100 50 0 FY 07 FY 08 Capacity FY 09 Production FY 10 FY 11 155 172 181 167
Thus there is a growing situation of oversupply in the overall industry. The capacity indicated is the effective capacity available at the end of the year. Cement industry trends in South India, figures in million tonnes (past 5 years): 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 FY07 FY08 Capacity FY09 Production FY10 Consumption FY11 54 57 50 44 54 49 67 60 54 66 59 63 63 80 92
A situation of high supply and low demand prevails which is expected to last at least up to the next two years. Sources: Cement manufacturers association, ICICI Direct
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Financial Accounting
Year
2011 18 -7
2010 10
2009 13
2008 16 36
2007 35 48 Year
2006 27 23
2005 15 20
2004 16 25
2003 -5 -26
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3. Total expenses by sales 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 Ratio 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 Prism Cement India Cements 2011 0.96 0.98 2010 0.87 0.87 2009 0.77 0.79 2008 0.65 0.71 2007 0.62 0.78 Year 2006 0.84 0.97 2005 0.91 1.00 2004 0.98 1.11 2003 1.11 1.37 Prism Cement India Cements
4. Growth rate in expenses 35 30 %age increase in expenses 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 Prism Cement India Cements Prism Cement India Cements
2011 31 4
2010 21
2009 25
2008 21 24
2007 -1 20 Year
2006 18 19
2005 7 8
2004 2 1
2003 1 0
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0.20
0.10 Ratio
-0.20
Year
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20