Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Aaron (Ronny) Gal, Ph.D. (Senior Analyst) ronny.gal@bernstein.com +1-212-756-4208 Alan Sonnenfeld alan.sonnenfeld@bernstein.com +1-212-823-3977 Paul Stephano, MD paul.stephano@bernstein.com +1-212-407-5914
Rating O
CUR USD
EPS 2010A 4.55 85.28 2011E 4.93 96.26 2012E 5.96 105.44 2010A 9.1 14.1
P/E 2011E 8.4 12.5 2012E 6.9 11.4 Yield 2.3% 2.2%
Highlights
The slides below are from a presentation made today (August 5th) in which we argued the investment case for Teva. It is provided here as reference to investors in call format.
Investment Conclusion
U.S. Pharmaceuticals/Specialty
My investment case has evolved into "hope and pray", is there a slide on that?
Why a SHORT call. (duration) Teva traded down another buck after-close on fear you are downgrading it
Source: Clients
See Disclosure Appendix of this report for important disclosures and analyst certifications.
ronny.gal@bernstein.com +1-212-756-4208
Furthest in transition of business model away from maturing US GRx business Valuation is highly attractive Without Copaxone, Teva is a growth company Near term catalysts are there Risks and how to mitigate them
Source: SCB Analysis
U.S. Pharmaceuticals/Specialty
ronny.gal@bernstein.com +1-212-756-4208
PLAVIX (100%) SEROQUEL (100%) SINGULAIR (100%) ACTOS (100%) LEXAPRO (100%) DIOVAN (100%) DIOVAN HCT (100%) TRICOR (100%) GEODON (100%) PROVIGIL (100%) ADDERALL XR (100%) LUNESTA (75%) SEROQUEL XR (75%) NASONEX (50%) SUBOXONE (50%) AVAPRO (100%) ACTOPLUS MET (100%) AVALIDE (100%) AVANDIA (100%) TRILIPIX (75%) EXFORGE (100%) ENTOCORT EC (100%) LIDODERM (25%) MAXALT (100%) REVATIO (100%) ENABLEX (100%) ELOXATIN (100%) MAXALT MLT (100%) CLARINEX (100%) AVANDAMET (100%) ATACAND (100%) FOCALIN XR (34%) VIRAMUNE (100%) VIDAZA (50%) XELODA (25%) MEPRON (100%) ALLEGRA-D 24 HOUR (75%) SUPRANE (50%) LAMICTAL XR (100%) METROGEL (100%) PATADAY (40%) COMBIGAN (75%) ORACEA (25%) MYFORTIC (25%) HECTOROL (20%) AZILECT (25%) Respiratory ASTEPRO
CYMBALTA (100%) OXYCONTIN (75%) CONCERTA (100%) NIASPAN (100%) ACIPHEX (100%) ZOMETA (100%) LOVAZA (75%) ZEMPLAR (100%) VIAGRA (50%) XELODA (75%) RECLAST (100%) TEMODAR (100%) ARIXTRA (100%) ASACOL (50%) LIDODERM (25%) VALCYTE (100%) TRAVATAN Z (75%) RENVELA (75%) LIALDA (75%) TOBI (75%) DACOGEN (100%) RENAGEL (75%) TREANDA (50%) VIVELLE-DOT (75%) SUSTIVA (75%) ZOMIG (100%) FOCALIN XR (33%) VENOFER (100%) PRECEDEX (100%) XIBROM (100%) RANEXA (50%) SIMCOR (100%) FASLODEX (75%) NUVIGIL (50%) RAPAMUNE (50%) TACLONEX (75%) TRAVATAN (75%) AVINZA (50%) FOSRENOL (25%)
NEXIUM (100%) CELEBREX (100%) ACTONEL (100%) EVISTA (100%) RESTASIS (100%) DETROL LA (75%) LOESTRIN 24 FE (100%) VYVANSE (50%) AVELOX (100%) LUMIGAN (100%) MICARDIS (100%) LIDODERM (25%) NASONEX (25%) MICARDIS HCT (100%) LUNESTA (25%) KENALOG (100%) ARGATROBAN (100%) FOCALIN XR (33%) XIFAXAN (100%) DEXILANT (75%) ZEMPLAR (100%) ZIANA (25%) TESTIM (50%) SUPRANE (50%) RAPAMUNE (50%) NATAZIA (50%) BYSTOLIC (34%) TRAVATAN Z (25%) RENVELA (25%) HECTOROL (40%) TOBI (25%) INTEGRILIN (25%) RENAGEL (25%) VIVELLE-DOT (25%) TRAVATAN (25%) Respiratory ADVAIR Discus
ABILIFY (100%) NAMENDA (100%) GLEEVEC (100%) ANDROGEL 1% (100%) ZYVOX (100%) AVODART (100%) ALOXI (100%) Aggrenox (100%) ORTHO-TRI-CY LO 28 (100%) NORVIR (75%) WELCHOL (100%) LIDODERM (25%) ANGIOMAX (75%) INTEGRILIN (75%) TREANDA (50%) BARACLUDE (100%) INTUNIV (100%) ORTHO EVRA 3 (100%) PATANOL (50%) CARBATROL (100%) PRISTIQ (25%) EMEND TRIFOLD PACK (100%) KEPPRA XR (75%) NUVIGIL (50%) VIMPAT (75%) RETIN-A MICRO (75%) BYSTOLIC (33%) ZIANA (75%) PATADAY (33%) TACLONEX (25%) Respiratory
CRESTOR (100%) ZETIA (100%) VYTORIN (100%) ALIMTA (100%) BENICAR (100%) BENICAR HCT (100%) SENSIPAR (100%) CUBICIN (100%) EPZICOM (100%) KALETRA (75%) PREZISTA (75%) CIPRODEX (100%) COREG CR (75%) AZOR (100%) ORACEA (75%) TRIZIVIR (100%) RELPAX (75%) TYGACIL (100%) ISTODAX (75%) MULTAQ (75%) NATAZIA (50%) RETIN-A MICRO (25%) Respiratory SEREVENT DISKUS
104
U.S. Pharmaceuticals/Specialty
44 45 46 47
ronny.gal@bernstein.com +1-212-756-4208
60%
50%
30%
10%
0% TEVA
Source: IMS, Company Disclosures, SCB Analysis
MYL
HSP
WPI
U.S. Pharmaceuticals/Specialty
4500 4000 26% 3500 3000 EU 2500 44% 2000 1500 1000 500 0 ROW
47%
19% 6%
11% 3% 2%
4000 2000 0
MSFranchise
Respiratory
Women's Health
NA Generics
O-US Generics
Teva
Azilect
MSFranchise
Respiratory
Women's Health
NA Generics
O-US Generics
Other Brands
Azilect
Teva
ronny.gal@bernstein.com +1-212-756-4208
Exhibit 6 Revenue will accelerate post 15 as Copaxone headwinds dissipate and branded business matures
CAGR 25,000
(2012 - 2015)
CAGR
(2016 - 2020)
20,000 9%
Revenue ($M)
12% 4% -20% 8%
15,000
13% -21% 7%
10,000
5%
7%
5,000 -9% 0
2011E 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
-5%
2020E
PE 2013 7.3 13.5 10.0 9.0 8.3 10.0 7.4 8.8 7.5 8.5 7.4 6.9 6.8 6.9
U.S. Pharmaceuticals/Specialty
Exhibit 7 Valuation I: On a comparable basis, Teva significantly cheaper than Big Pharma
Company 2011 2012 AZN 7.13 6.08 BMY 2.25 2.04 GSK 3.72 4.03 LLY 4.32 3.69 MRK 3.73 3.85 NVS 5.57 5.80 PFE 2.25 2.28 ROG 12.69 14.11 SNY 4.84 4.67 Average (Excluding BMY) Average -1 Standard Deviation (34.1%) Teva w/o Laq 4.92 6.09 Teva 4.95 6.08 Teva Cons 5.05 5.63 EPS 2013 6.03 2.01 4.21 3.98 3.81 5.75 2.36 15.07 4.72 2014 6.17 2.26 4.53 2.91 4.17 6.34 2.49 15.68 5.14 2015 6.16 2.20 4.89 3.35 4.49 6.83 2.64 16.42 5.33 CAGR 0% 3% 7% -3% 5% 6% 5% 5% 5% 4% 2% 4% 3% 2011 6.2 12.1 11.4 8.3 8.5 10.3 7.7 10.5 7.3 8.8 7.0 8.4 8.3 8.2 2012 7.3 13.3 10.5 9.7 8.2 9.9 7.6 9.4 7.6 8.8 7.5 6.8 6.8 7.3 2014 7.2 12.0 9.3 12.3 7.6 9.1 7.0 8.5 6.9 8.5 6.6 6.8 6.5 6.9 2015 7.2 12.3 8.6 10.7 7.0 8.4 6.6 8.1 6.6 7.9 6.5 6.4 6.1 6.7 Dividend Yield 3.9% 4.9% 4.9% 5.5% 4.8% 3.5% 4.6% 5.0% 3.7% 4.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%
ronny.gal@bernstein.com +1-212-756-4208
LLY
U.S. Pharmaceuticals/Specialty
6,000
5,000
4,000
FCF Yield
1,000
2.0% 0.0%
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
ronny.gal@bernstein.com +1-212-756-4208
Exhibit 10 Teva excluding Copaxone (or Laquinimod) would Grow EPS at 13% CAGR
Copaxone Global revenues COGS R&D SG&A (incl.SNY royalty, 5% G&A) Pre-tax profit contribution Tax (at 8%) Net income EPS contribution 2011 3,308 430 100 765 2,012 161 1,851 $2.08 2012 3,666 477 100 783 2,306 184 2,122 $2.41 2013 3,097 403 100 728 1,867 149 1,717 $1.98 2014 2,393 -23% 311 100 632 1,350 108 1,242 $1.45 2015 1,766 -26% 194 50 545 976 78 898 $1.06
CAGR (2012 - 2015) $6.45 2% $5.39 13%
$4.92 $2.85
$6.10 $3.69
$6.02 $4.04
$6.06 $4.62
x12 = $44
U.S. Pharmaceuticals/Specialty
Generics
Respiratory
7% -55% -6% -8% 1% -100% 6% 1% 2%
CEPH
3 8
46 64
20% 6%
Other Brands
Womens Health
ronny.gal@bernstein.com +1-212-756-4208
5.12
0.50 0.43
EPS CAGR
Total: 11% TEVA: 5% CEPH: 18%
3.80
0.27 0.13
0.24 0.31
2.50
3.76 3.69 3.82 4.01 4.31
CEPH Teva
1.00
-0.07
-0.08
-0.50
2011E
2012E
2013E
2014E
2015E
U.S. Pharmaceuticals/Specialty
2Q12
80%
Q3:11-4Q:11
By drug
3Q11
66%
50% 75%
ronny.gal@bernstein.com +1-212-756-4208
U.S. Pharmaceuticals/Specialty
Exhibit 15 Risks
Lose Copaxone either through inequitable conduct or invalidity / non-infringement trials CONFIRM Data shows BG-12 significantly more effective than Copaxone Further delay in base business remediation Management credibility issues continue
Source: SCB Analysis
ronny.gal@bernstein.com +1-212-756-4208
Best Trade-off
MW
MW
Teva project managers present credible argument why they believed and still do, that low molecular weight Copaxone is better choice than high MW
Source: Company Disclosures, SCB Analysis
U.S. Pharmaceuticals/Specialty
Exhibit 17 CONFIRM results: Expectations for strong BG-12, but its Never In the Stock
How will BG-12 compare to Copaxone in CONFIRM?
Statistically inferior Numerically inferior Essentially the same Numerically superior Statistically superior
10
ronny.gal@bernstein.com +1-212-756-4208
Nov-09
Feb-10
Jun-10
Jul-10
Aug-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Feb-11
May-10
May-11
Oct-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Apr-10
Apr-11
Jun-11
Jan-10
Jan-11
50
45
...And you couple that with the Jerusalem, which was an issue; Irvine, which was an issue that we spoke to, and those are all improving. Jerusalem we're over, we feel great about it, approvals are coming again. Irvine, it's coming back slowly
40
35
30
Jul-08
Nov-08
Jul-09
Nov-09
Jul-10
Mar-09
May-09
Mar-10
May-10
Nov-10
Sep-08
Sep-09
Sep-10
Jan-09
Jan-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
U.S. Pharmaceuticals/Specialty
Exhibit 19 We rely, in part, on management description of their business, but management credibility is low after multiple errors in judgment
Both Irvine and Jerusalem problems originally described as immaterial; ended up as significant problems Lovenox delayed for over a year now, despite Teva expectations for near simultaneous approval with Momenta Launch of Protonix ended-up being a mistake; yet to find out how costly Laquinimod celebrated way too early
Source: SCB Analysis
May-11
11
ronny.gal@bernstein.com +1-212-756-4208
After persistent decline, investors reticent to call bottom; the shareholder base is turning over. The name will likely move slowly
CONFIRM shock value may take name lower; others will wait for the result 2H11 catalyst will be needed to build confidence, then, we think we can have sustainable rally
A critical point is clarification how the company will generate strong 4Q11
Expectations far below management guidance Management expect broad growth off 2Q position; undisclosed launch not a big part of the story
Eventually, generics are good counter-cyclical play, although it may take a bit to play out
US generic prices are low, impact on pricing in Europe will be limited Note material volume growth in 2012
Source: SCB Analysis
U.S. Pharmaceuticals/Specialty
12
ronny.gal@bernstein.com +1-212-756-4208
Exhibit 21 With Cephalon, Teva will earn ~$6 in 2012, growing EPS at 2.3% to 2015
Annual 2010 5,165 Annual 2011E 17,081 748 17,829 6,956 10,873 1,064 2,561 1,143 5,645 5,229 (37) (7) (68) 5,117 661 4,455 (61) 4,394 $ 890 891 $ $ 4.94 4.93 $ $ $ 5,195 242 (209) 5,229 604 29 632 4,596 Annual 2012E 18,482 2,034 20,516 7,461 13,054 1,618 3,023 1,156 6,491 150 6,564 (35) (18) (252) 6,259 924 5,334 (70) 5,264 $ 884 884 5.96 5.96 0.19 6,360 501 (569) 6,292 1,002 110 1,112 5,180 (1,000) (2,000) (868) (202) 1,110 3,061 9,700 (6,639) $ $ $ Annual 2013E 18,087 1,931 20,018 7,546 12,472 1,412 2,962 1,047 6,148 375 6,324 12 (18) (192) 6,126 824 5,302 (105) 5,197 $ 877 877 5.93 5.93 0.55 5,949 447 210 6,605 1,073 103 1,176 5,429 (1,000) (2,000) (912) (205) 1,312 4,373 7,700 (3,327) $ $ $ Annual 2014E 17,820 2,008 19,829 7,756 12,072 1,448 3,092 1,019 5,921 450 6,151 82 (18) (112) 6,103 809 5,294 (105) 5,189 $ 866 866 6.00 6.00 0.74 5,721 449 359 6,529 1,181 97 1,278 5,250 (1,000) (1,800) (957) (208) 1,285 5,657 5,900 (243) $ $ $ Annual 2015E 17,694 2,141 19,836 7,912 11,924 1,389 3,121 1,013 5,589 450 6,335 150 (18) (36) 6,431 871 5,560 (105) 5,455 856 856 6.37 6.37 0.94 5,759 531 432 6,722 1,404 91 1,495 5,227 (1,000) (1,005) (212) 3,010 8,667 5,900 2,767 12-15 CAGR -1% 2% -1% -3% -5% 1% -4.3%
Total TEVA standalone revenue CEPH standalone revenue Combined entity Total COGS Combined gross profit R&D Combined entity S&M Combined entity G&A Combined entity Total Op expenses Total pre-tax synergies Operating Income (Loss) Teva standalone interest exp + other inc. CEPH standalone interest exp + other inc. Interest at 4% annually Pre-tax income Total taxes Income before minority interest Minority investment Net income Share Count - Basic Share Count - Diluted EPS (Basic) EPS (Diluted) Accretion vs. TEVA standalone TEVA CF operations CEPH CF operations Additional CF from merger Total CFO Teva CapEx CEPH CapEx Total CapEx $ $
1Q11 4,080
2Q11 4,212
3Q11 4,068
4Q11 4,721 748 5,469 1,920 3,549 348 784 364 1,716 -
4,933 (144)
1,114 (38)
1,091 20
1,190 (27)
-1.2%
4,789
1,076
1,111
1,164
1,490 (14) 1,476 $ 884 884 1.67 1.67 0.16 899 242 (209) 932 788 29 817 116 (100) (1,000) (167) (50) (1,202)
1.2%
2.3%
3,055
900
1,324
1,886
234
226
(644)
U.S. Pharmaceuticals/Specialty
FCF Uses of FCF Share buyback Debt paydown Dividend Options expense Net change in cash Total cash Total debt Net cash 748 6,218 (5,470) 1,157 6,218 (5,061) 3,153 12,700 (9,547)
13
ronny.gal@bernstein.com +1-212-756-4208
Disclosure Appendix
Valuation Methodology
We value generic companies on next year EPS multiples. Companies with diverse revenue sources and better strategic position are given a higher multiple. Based on our Teva 2012 EPS of $5.82, we arrive at a target price of $55 (~9.5x).
Risks
The downside risks to Teva achieving our price target are: Deterioration of Copaxone revenue due to rapid entry and adoption of oral MS agents (Gilenya, BG12) or rapid success of a Paragraph IV challenge on Copaxone. Inability to monetize its Paragraph IV portfolio or adverse rulings and substantial fines on at-risk launches. Intensifying global competition in commodity generics beyond our current estimates. Failure of late stage branded/specialty/biosimilars programs
U.S. Pharmaceuticals/Specialty
14
Rating Guide: O - Outperform, M - Market-Perform, U - Underperform, N - Not Rated Rating Actions: IC - Initiated Coverage, DC - Dropped Coverage, RC - Rating Change
OTHER DISCLOSURES
A price movement of a security which may be temporary will not necessarily trigger a recommendation change. Bernstein will ad advise as and when coverage of securities commences and ceases. Bernstein has no policy or standard as to the frequency of any updates or changes to its frequency coverage policies. Although the definition and application of these methods are based on generally accepted industry practice and models, practices please note that there is a range of reasonable variations within these models. The application of models typically depends on forecasts of a range of economic variables, which may include, but not limited to, interest rates, exchange rates, earnings, cash flows and risk factors that are subject to uncertainty and also may change over time. Any valuation is dependent upon the subjective opinion of the analysts carrying out this r valuation. This document may not be passed on to any person in the United Kingdom (i) who is a retail client (ii) unless that person or entity qualifies as an authorised person or exempt person within the meaning of section 19 of the UK Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (the "A "Act"), or qualifies as a person to whom the financial promotion restriction imposed by the Act does not apply by virtue of the Financial Services and Markets Act Financial 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, or is a person classified as an "professional client" for the purposes of the Conduct of Business Rules of the Financial Services Authority.
To our readers in the United States: Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC is distributing this publication in the United States and accepts responsibility for its contents. Any U.S. person receiving this publication and wishing to effect securities transactions in any security discussed herein should do so only through Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC. To our readers in the United Kingdom: This publication has been issued or approved for issue in the United Kingdom by Sanford C. Bernstein Limited, authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority and located at Devonshire House, 1 Mayfair Place, London W1J 8SB, +44 (0)20-7170-5000. To our readers in member states of the EEA: This publication is being distributed in the EEA by Sanford C. Bernstein Limited, which is authorised and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority and holds a passport under the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive. To our readers in Hong Kong: This publication is being issued in Hong Kong by Sanford C. Bernstein, a unit of AllianceBernstein Hong Kong Limited. AllianceBernstein Hong Kong Limited is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission. To our readers in Singapore: This publication is being distributed in Singapore by Sanford C. Bernstein, a unit of AllianceBernstein (Singapore) Ltd., only to accredited investors or institutional investors, as defined in the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289). Recipients in Singapore should contact AllianceBernstein (Singapore) Ltd in respect of matters arising from, or in connection with, this publication. AllianceBernstein (Singapore) Ltd is a licensed entity under the Securities and Futures Act and registered with Company Registered No. 199703364C. It is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and located at 30 Cecil Street, #28-01 Prudential Tower, Singapore 049712, +65-62304600. The business name "Sanford C. Bernstein" is registered under business registration number 53193989L. To our readers in Australia: Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC and Sanford C. Bernstein Limited are exempt from the requirement to hold an Australian financial services licence under the Corporations Act 2001 in respect of the provision of the following financial services to wholesale clients: providing financial product advice; dealing in a financial product; making a market for a financial product; and providing a custodial or depository service.
Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC., Sanford C. Bernstein Limited, AllianceBernstein Hong Kong Limited and AllianceBernstein (Singapore) Ltd. are regulated by, respectively, the Securities and Exchange Commission under U.S. laws, by the Financial Services Authority under U.K. laws, by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission under Hong Kong laws, and by the Monetary Authority of Singapore under Singapore laws, all of which differ from Australian laws. One or more of the officers, directors, or employees of Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC, Sanford C. Bernstein Limited, Sanford C. Bernstein, a unit of AllianceBernstein Hong Kong Limited, Sanford C. Bernstein (business registration number 53193989L), a unit of AllianceBernstein (Singapore) Ltd. which is a licensed entity under the Securities and Futures Act and registered with Company Registration No. 199703364C, and/or their affiliates may at any time hold, increase or decrease positions in securities of any company mentioned herein. Bernstein or its affiliates may provide investment management or other services to the pension or profit sharing plans, or employees of any company mentioned herein, and may give advice to others as to investments in such companies. These entities may effect transactions that are similar to or different from those recommended herein. Bernstein Research Publications are disseminated to our customers through posting on the firm's password protected website, www.bernsteinresearch.com. Additionally, Bernstein Research Publications are available through email, postal mail and commercial research portals. If you wish to alter your current distribution method, please contact your salesperson for details. Bernstein and/or its affiliates do and seek to do business with companies covered in its research publications. As a result, investors should be aware that Bernstein and/or its affiliates may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this publication. Investors should consider this publication as only a single factor in making their investment decisions. This publication has been published and distributed in accordance with Bernstein's policy for management of conflicts of interest in investment research, a copy of which is available from Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC, Director of Compliance, 1345 Avenue of the Americas, New York, N.Y. 10105, Sanford C. Bernstein Limited, Director of Compliance, Devonshire House, One Mayfair Place, LondonW1J 8SB, United Kingdom, Sanford C. Bernstein, a unit of AllianceBernstein Hong Kong Limited, Director of Compliance, Suite 3401, 34th Floor, One IFC, One Harbour View Street, Central, Hong Kong, or Sanford C. Bernstein (business registration number 53193989L) , a unit of AllianceBernstein (Singapore) Ltd. which is a licensed entity under the Securities and Futures Act and registered with Company Registration No. 199703364C, Director of Compliance, 30 Cecil Street, #28-01 Prudential Tower, Singapore 049712.
CERTIFICATIONS
I/(we), Aaron (Ronny) Gal, Ph.D., Senior Analyst(s)/Analyst(s), certify that all of the views expressed in this publication accurately reflect my/(our) personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers and that no part of my/(our) compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views in this publication.