Commodities Daily Report

Friday| August 10, 2012

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Mentha Potato

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narveker@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Associate anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| August 10, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Gujarat, Rajasthan likely to get rain
The ongoing wet session over central India will get a further leg-up as a follow-up rain system brews over North of Bay of Bengal. It will track almost the same path as the predecessor, giving another round of rains over east-central, central and west India. Significantly, Gujarat also stands to get moderate to heavy rains as the system travels in, before it moves into adjoining Rajasthan and dissipates. But models suggest that Saurashtra and Kutch would most likely sit out of this session. Otherwise, the wet cover is expected to hang variously over the regions listed above until mid-week next week. It is likely that similar conditions would pan out over Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi and west Uttar Pradesh on Friday, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said. An extended outlook by the IMD said that rainfall would increase over Rajasthan and Gujarat. Scattered to fairly widespread rainfall is seen over the rest of the country outside southeast peninsular India where it would be isolated. (Source: Business Line)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on Aug 9, 2012
WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

17561 5323 55.17 93.36 1617

-0.23 -0.28 -0.20 0.01 0.26

1.95 1.82 -1.20 7.15 1.87

-0.33 -0.42 -0.40 11.26 2.39

1.47 2.14 22.70 14.82 -5.44

Source: Reuters

Parliament panel waves red flag to GM crops

The Parliamentary Standing Committee on Agriculture has come down heavily against the use of genetically modified (GM) crops in the country. The Committee, which took almost three years to complete its report on the controversial issue, concluded that GM crops, particularly Bt cotton, had not helped farmers. The Committee, which visited the Vidarbha region to study the impact of Bt cotton, said that the farmers there were not able to shift from transgenic cotton to traditional and farmer-friendly varieties due to non-availability of seeds. The largest number of suicides was reported from areas where Bt cotton was used. Farmers have no option there but to use the Bt cotton, the Committee, headed by veteran CPI(M) MP, Basudeb Acharia told reporters here on Thursday.
(Source: Business Line)

Rice, cotton sowing picks up as rain deficit narrows

As kharif planting enters the last phase, the acreage under key crops, such as rice and cotton, has picked up on better rain during the week. Rains across central parts reduced the overall monsoon deficit to 17 per cent for the June 1-August 8 period as against 20 per cent last week. So far, about half of the 36 metrological sub-divisions have received normal rains, while the rest continue to remain deficient or scanty. Among oilseeds, soyabean registered a higher acreage of 105 lh, a rise of 5 per cent, while the area under groundnut continued to trail at 32.48 lh(37 lh). The shortfall in groundnut acreage is on account of poor rain in Saurashtra affecting the sowing. Acreage of cash crops such as cotton, however, caught up with last years 109 lh, while sugarcane is higher by 2.29 lh at 52.88 lh. The total kharif acreage trails by 77.57 lh or about 9 per cent at 802.09 lh. Though acreage under maize stood at 65.66 lh, down by 4.5 per cent over the corresponding period a year ago, the acreage under bajra continued to trail by a 36 per cent at 46.03 lh. The acreage under pulses also made slow progress. Though the area under tur and urad continued to be almost on par with last years acreage of 31 lh and 19 lh respectively, a shortfall was witnessed in moong whose acreage was down almost 30 per cent at 14.24 lh against last years 21 lh, mainly on account of poor sowing in Rajasthan. (Source: Business Line)

Rs. 4,72,894 Crore Outstanding Farm Loans by PSBs

The credit outstanding of Public Sector Banks to agriculture sector was Rs. 419,346 crore in March 2011 and Rs. 472,894 crore in March 2012. The Agricultural Debt Waiver and Debt Relief Scheme (ADWDRS), 2008 has de-clogged the lines of credit that were clogged due to the debt burden on the farmers. Under the scheme Rs. 52,275.55 crore has been released by the Government to RBI and NABARD to give benefit to 3.45 crore farmers. in order to discourage distress sales, the benefit of interest subvention was made available in the year 2011-12 to small and marginal farmers having Kisan Credit Card for a further period of upto six months post harvest on the same rates as available to crop loans against Negotiable warehouse receipts for keeping their produce in warehouses. The Government in the Budget Speech of 2012-13 announced continuation of the Scheme in 2012-13 as well. (Source: PIb)

World Palm Oil Output For 2012 Seen At 45 MLN.T Ganling

As per Ganling plantation advisory firm, world palm oil production for 2012 seen at 45 million tons, up 5 percent compared to the previous year which is below than average rate due to tepid output in Malaysia and Indonesia. Moreover, developing El Nino weather pattern over Southeast Asia could lead to lower yields and may lift palm oil prices in medium term. (Source: Agriwatch)

FMC asks bourses to disclose more trade details on websites

The commodity market regulator has asked national exchanges to make public the information about trade undertaken by brokers and individual traders on their platforms from August 13 to ensure transparency. Based on the views received from the national exchanges, the commission has decided that the exchanges should display the above information (regarding percentage of proprietary trade and client trade done on the exchange platform) on the day following the trading day before trading hours, the Forward Markets Commission (FMC) has said in a directive. The exchanges are mandated to provide information on their websites in a specified format with details about date, the commodity traded on each exchange by proprietary (brokers) and clients (individual traders) and their percentage of trade in total traded value, according to the directive. (Source: Financial Express)

Global food reserves falling as drought wilts crops

tockpiles of the biggest crops will decline for a third year as drought parches fields across three continents, raising food-import costs already forecast by the United Nations to reach a near-record $1.24 trillion. Combined inventories of corn, wheat, soybeans and rice will drop 1.8 percent to a four-year low before harvests in 2013, the Department of Agriculture estimates. Crops in the United States, the biggest exporter, are in the worst condition since 1988, heat waves are battering European crops and India's monsoon rainfall already is 20% below normal. The International Grains Council began July by forecasting record harvests. It ended with a prediction for a 2% drop in output. (Source: Newsday)

Desperate spinners quote higher bids for cotton

Heavy demand from spinners buoyed cotton by Rs 300 a quintal this week. Arrivals have decreased as the season ends. Spinners, in need of huge stocks to meet orders from textile firms, quoted higher for the fibre. Because of rain, Wednesdays auctions at Bhoodapady Regulated Marketing Committee were postponed to Thursday. Arrivals will fall from next week when we are hopeful of getting more the produce. Said a farmer (Source: Business Line)

Malaysia's Aug 1-10 palm oil exports down 1.8 pct -ITS - RTRS
Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Aug 1-10 fell 1.8 percent to 357,372 tonnes from 363,975 tonnes for July 1-10, cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services said on Friday. (Source: Reuters)

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| August 10, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures that had declined sharply in the early part of the session recovered sharply towards the end and settled lower by 0.74%. As per the latest report form IMD, monsoon till 08 August 2012 were 17% below normal with Rajasthan, Gujarat, Punjab and Haryana affecting the most. This has led to concerns over kharif pulses output as Rajasthan accounts for 25% of the kharif pulses production. Also, poor rains would impact Rabi chana sowing where Rajasthan contributes around 12-13% in total chana output. The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs yesterday approved the Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for Arhar (Tur) and Moong for 2012-13 season. The MSP for Arhar has been fixed at Rs.3850 per quintal and of Moong at Rs.4400 per quintal marking an increase of Rs.650 per quintal and Rs.900 per quintal respectively. Government released fourth advance estimates wherein it revised upward Chana output at 7.58 mn tn from 7.4 mn tonnes estimated in the third advance estimates and 8.22 mn tn in 2010-11.
th

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 4900 4718 Prev day -1.30 -0.74

as on Aug 9, 2012 % change WoW MoM -1.38 4.90 -0.04 1.97 YoY 54.99 45.62

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Aug '12 Futures

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX Sept contract

Sowing progress and demand supply fundamentals

According to the Ministry of Agriculture 74.48 Lakh hectare area has th been planted under Kharif pulses as on 9 August, 2012 compared to 89.34 lakh hectare (ha) same period last year, a decline of 16.63% . Sowing is reported lower mainly in Rajasthan. Rajasthan Agriculture Department states that planted area under Kharif Pulses is down at 8.93 lakh hectares ha compared to 19.35 lakh ha same st period last year. (Dated 1 August, 2012). Acreage may remain lower as farmers in Rajasthan may shift to other lucrative crops. However, in AP and Maharashtra, Kharif sowing is up by 5% and 0.2%. According to the Fourth advance estimates, Pulses output is pegged at 17.21 mn tn in 2011-12 compared with 18.24 mn tn produced in the year 2010-11. While Chana output in 2011-12 is estimated at 7.58 million tones, Tur is estimated at 2.65 million tones, Urad is estimated at 1.83 million tones, Moong is estimated at 1.71 million tones. As per the latest release, Ministry of Commerce & Industry revealed that 20.23 lakh tones of peas, 2.03 lakh tons of Chana, 4.32 lakh tons of Urad & Moong, 1.12 lakh tons of Masoor and 4.26 lakh tons of Tur has been imported by India during April11-March 12. India's consumption of pulses is on the rise with an annual growth of around 5% but production is seen lower, which may lead to increase in imports this year. However, rupee weakness may turn import costlier. Around 74% of Indian chickpea imports come from Australia.
Contract Chana Sept Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support 4740-4780 Resistance 4885-4920
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook

valid for Aug 10, 2012

Outlook
Chana prices may are expected to trade on a positive note on account of tight supplies and comparatively strong demand amid festive season. Further, poor rains in Rajasthan, and thereby concerns over chana sowing over there is also supporting the upside in the prices. However, if government takes some measure to curb the rising prices of Pulse, like imposition of stock limits, prices might come under downside pressure. In the medium term to long term, the trend remains positive as supplies may not be sufficient to meet the rising demand of the commodity. Also lower sowing of kharif pulses may support chana prices.

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| August 10, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
After declining continuously in the past 4 sessions, sugar futures recovered sharply and hit the 3% upper circuit in the September contract on reports that co curb on exports have been made so far amid sufficient stocks. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 0.14% and 1.21% higher on Thursday. Industry body has estimated 7 mn tn stocks for the new season beginning October 01, 2012 compared to 5.5 mn tn year ago. India may exports 2.53 mn tn sugar in 2012-13. (Source: Reuters) The Central Government has released additional 4 lakh ton of non-levy sugar for the month of August, 2012. With the earlier release of 45 lakh ton in June and 2.66 lakh ton in July the total 51.66 lakh ton non-levy sugar will be available. According to a circular issued by FMC a Minimum Initial Margin of 10% of the value of the contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher will be imposed on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts of Sugar with effect from beginning of trading day Monday, Aug 06, 2012. In the international markets Liffe white sugar as well as ICE raw sugar settled 1.31% and 1.38% lower Thursday.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolkata) Sugar M- NCDEX Aug '12 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3926

as on Aug 9, 2012 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.14 6.53 MoM 17.89 YoY 30.86

Rs/qtl

3514

1.21

-0.87

11.06

29.57

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeOct'12 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE Oct '12 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 581.5 462.22

as on Aug 9, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW -1.31 -1.38 -4.75 -5.63 MoM -10.00 -8.37 YoY -21.79 -25.29

Source: Reuters

Domestic Production and Exports

As on 9 August, 2012, the area under sugarcane is estimated at 52.88 lakh ha, up from 50.59 lakh ha on same period a year ago. Despite of higher acreage, the producers body has estimated next years output lower at 25mn tn, down by 1mn tn compared to the current year. Sugar production in India the worlds second-biggest producer touched 26 million tonne since October 1, 2011. IMD has so far predicted normal rains in August. However, rains in the first week of august are still 1% below average. If monsoon recover in the month of August, then there would not be much downward revision in the output and vice a versa. With the opening stocks of 7 mn tonnes, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 32mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22.523 mln tn for 2012-13 season. Thus, no curbs on exports are seen as of now.
th

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX Sept contract

Global Sugar Updates

According to Unica, Mills in Brazil's main center-south cane region produced 9.32 mn tn of sugar since April, down 22 percent from a year ago, With a return to a normal weather pattern, cane harvesting is in full swing. While sugar output reached 2.63 mn tn in the first two weeks of July, up 2% from a year ago. Brazil's exports of raw sugar fell to 1.29 million tonnes in June, down by 30% from 1.85 million tonnes a year earlier. The global sugar surplus remains on target to fall in 2012/13 season, though declines will be less than previously suggested, while adverse weather in several producers may stop prices dropping far below recent levels. (Source: Reuters) According to the International Sugar Organization (ISO), the global sugar surplus is forecast to halve to around 3 mln tn in 2012/13 (OctoberSeptember) from a surplus of 6.5 million tonnes in 2011/12).

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Sept NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl

valid for Aug 10, 2012 Support 3470-3490 Resistance 3540-3570

Outlook
Sugar prices may continue to remain firm on festive season demand and comparatively lower supplies. Long term outlook for sugar would depend on the monsoon in the month of August and September and thereby output estimates for next season that will begin in October.

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| August 10, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds Soybean:
Soybean futures that declined sharply considering higher acreage and good rains in the major soybean growing belt of MP, recovered towards the end and settled marginally lower by 0.12% on Thursday. India's oil meal exports fell to 2.75 lakh tn in July from 2.82 lakh tn a year earlier led by a sharp drop in the overseas sales of rapeseed meal. Soy meal exports rose to 1.68 lakh tn in July, from 1.39 tn a year ago. The only factor that is supporting the upside in the coming week is the USDA report which I expected to be released on Friday. In the international markets CBOT Soybean moved up sharply ahead of the USDA crop report which will be released today evening. Export demand also lent support to the prices CBOT Soybean settled 3.96% higher on Thursday. th In the domestic markets, as on 9 August Oilseeds have been sown in 151.82 lakh hectares so far, compared with 157.9 lakh hectares same period last year. Soybean area is higher at 103.2 lakh hectares. In 2011-12 season, soybean was sown under 102.9 lakh hectares area and recorded 12.28 million tonne output, down from 12.73 mn tn in 2010-11 season. Indian acreage may touch record high levels this year as farmers have opted for this remunerative crop across India.

Market Highlights
Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Aug'12 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soyoil- NCDEX Aug '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 4584 4633 773.6 772.7

as on Aug 9, 2012 % Change Prev day -0.87 -0.12 -0.20 0.29 WoW 2.85 6.53 -0.98 -1.50 MoM 3.45 4.34 -1.11 -1.82 YoY 91.72 92.18 16.21 16.94

Source: Reuters

as on Aug 9, 2012 International Prices Soybean- CBOTAug'12 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTAug'12 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1695 52.39 Prev day 3.96 1.57 WoW 0.73 1.28 MoM 10.59 0.40
Source: Reuters

YoY 22.83 -8.57

Refined Soy Oil: NCDEX Soy Oil and MCX CPO recovered yesterday
after correcting over the last few as soybean prices in the domestic as well as the international market traded on a positive note ahead of the USDA crop report. Malaysian supplies are higher due to seasonally higher yield during the period (July-October). Malaysian crude palm oil prices fell to near eight-week lows on Wednesday on expectations that MPOB which is expected to release the data on Friday would show higher stocks of the edible oil. Malaysian palm oil Production has risen consistently since March 2012 and expected to go as high as 1.9 mn tn in September. On the other hand, exports have fallen 14.8 percent in July to below 1.23mn tonnes compared to 1.45mn tonnes a month ago due to a lull in Asian demand. India imported 124,125 tonnes of refined palm oil in June, down nearly 25 percent from May. Total vegetable oil imports in June were 783,315 tonnes, down 12.7 percent from 896,921 tonnes in the previous month, the data from the Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA) showed.

Crude Palm Oil

% Change Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Aug '12 Contract CPO-MCX- Aug '12 Futures

as on Aug 9, 2012

Last 2817 550.2

Prev day 0.21 0.09

WoW -3.20 -3.47

MoM -9.42 -2.57

YoY -17.15 13.12

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Aug '12 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 4200 4280 Prev day -1.70 -0.09

as on Aug 9, 2012 WoW -0.77 -2.95 MoM 1.08 1.83

Source: Reuters

YoY 42.37 45.08

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX Oct contract

Rape/mustard Seed: NCDEX mustard seed futures settled lower

on account of lower mustard meal exports. The Futures settled 0.09% lower while spot settled 1.7% lower on Thursday. However, mustard output this season has declined significantly and deficient rains Rajasthan would not provide proper moisture for mustard sowing next season. This would keep the downside restricted. According to a circular issued by NCDEX, existing Special Cash Margin of 5% on the Long side shall be increased to 15% on all the running and yet to be launched contracts w.e.f beginning of 18/07/2012.

Outlook
Soybean October contract may recover in the day tracking higher international prices ahead of the USDA monthly crop report. However, downside pressure may persist on account of higher area under cultivation and expected higher yield of soybean due to good rains in MP. Nevertheless, sentiment remains cautious as the soybean crop in the US has suffered severe damage and thus USDA report to be released on Friday may show downward revision in output. Also, the possibility of an El Nino returning to Southeast Asia could hamper output in top producers Indonesia and Malaysia.
Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Sept NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Sept Futures CPO MCX Sept Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Aug 10, 2012 Support 770-774 3765-3840 4280-4305 538-543 Resistance 783-788 3980-4035 4395-4440 550-555

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| August 10, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Black Pepper
Pepper Futures traded on a flat to positive note yesterday. Low stocks in the domestic markets supported the prices at lower levels. However, lower demand for Indian pepper in the international markets failed to attract buyers and capped the upside. The Spot settled lower by 0.12% while the Futures settled 0.35% higher on Thursday. th According to the circular released on June 13 2012 the existing Special margin of 10% (cash) on the long side stands withdrawn on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Pepper from beginning of day Friday June 15, 2012. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $8,400/tonne(C&F) while Vietnam was offering its produce at $6,000/tonne for 500 GL. Brazil was offering its pepper at $6,150/tonne for the B-Asta grade. As per circular dt. 29/06/2012 issued by NCDEX, Hassan will be available as an additional delivery centre for all the yet to be launched contracts. (not applicable to the currently available contracts-till Dec 2012 expiry).

Market Highlights
% Change Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Aug '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 42595 43980 Prev day -0.12 0.35

as on Aug 9, 2012 WoW -0.27 1.00 MoM 2.20 2.84 YoY 33.67 31.81

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX Sept contract

Exports
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper in April 2012 fell by 47% and stood at 1,200 tonnes as compared to 2,266 tonnes in April 2011. India imported 1,848 tonnes of pepper till March 2012 and has become the third country to import such large quantity after UAE and Singapore. (Source: Agriwatch) According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) exports of black pepper in 2012 are forecasted at around 1,25,000 tonnes. Exports of Pepper from Vietnam during January till June 2012 is estimated around 73000 mt 73,000 mt, higher by 4.3% in volume and 31.7% in value compared to corresponding year last year. Exports of Pepper from Brazil during January till May 2012 are estimated around 13369 mt. (Source: Peppertradeboard). Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 14.8% in the first 2 months of the year (2012) to 8810 tn as compared to 10344 tn in the same period previous year. Imports of Pepper in the month of February declined by 16.8% to 3999 tn as compared to 4811 tn in the month of January 2012. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. During May 2012 Brazil exported 1,705 tonnes of pepper as against 1600 tn in May 2011.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX Sept Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Aug 10, 2012 Support 43500-43725 Resistance 44350-44780

Production and Arrivals

Arrivals of pepper in domestic market stood at 18 tonnes while offtakes were 15 tonnes on Thursday. Global Pepper production in 2012 is expected to increase 7.2% to 3.20 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.98 lakh tonnes in 2011 with sharp rise of 24% in Indonesian pepper output and in Vietnam by 10%. According to latest report pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.35 lakh tonne as compared to 1.10 lakh tonne estimated early in the beginning of year (2012). Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) On the other hand production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to decline further by 5% to 43 thousand tonnes as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last year. Production is lowest in a decade.

Outlook
Pepper prices in the intraday trade sideways to positive note as lower stocks in the domestic markets as well as buying ahead of the festive season may support prices. On the other hand reports of fresh arrivals from the Indonesia and Malaysia might cap sharp gains in the short term.

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| August 10, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera Futures bounced back sharply yesterday hitting the 3% upper circuit in September contract on low arrivals as the prices corrected over the last few days. However, lower demand for Indian Jeera at high prices pressured the prices in the spot. Farmers are not selling their stocks anticipating better prices. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Due to the supply concerns from Syria and Turkey, large export orders have been diverted to India. The spot settled 0.93% lower while the Futures settled 0.59% higher on Thursday. Expectations are that large export orders may be diverted to India from the international markets due to the ongoing civil war in Syria which is hampering supplies. Export demand from Bangladesh, Pakistan and other countries may support the prices at lower levels. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 1,000 tonnes and around 5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices in the international market of Indian origin are being offered at $3,000/tn (c&f) while Syria and Turkey are not offering their produce. Carryover stocks of jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 7-8 lakh bags as compared to 4-5 lakh bags in the last year.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera SpotNCDEX(Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Aug '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 16294 15765 Prev day -0.93 0.59

as on Aug 9, 2012 % Change WoW 0.89 -0.36 MoM 5.46 2.03 YoY 3.86 0.83

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX Sept contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Unjha markets witnessed arrivals of 4,000 bags, 2,000 bags lower compared to previous day while off-takes stood at 3,000 bags on Thursday. Production of jeera in 2011-12 is expected to be around 40 lakh bags as compared to 29 lakh bags in 2010-11 (each bag weighs 55 kgs). (Source: spot market traders). According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an increase of 6%.

Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day -1.40 -1.65

as on Aug 9, 2012 % Change

Outlook
Jeera prices are expected to trade on sideways to positive note today. In the medium to long term (Aug-September 2012) prices are likely to witness a bounce back as there are limited stocks with Syria and Turkey and crop there is 30% short as compared to last year.
Unit Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Aug '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 5481 5614

WoW 3.84 1.41

MoM 24.20 15.99

YoY -14.53 -2.87

Turmeric
Turmeric Futures corrected yesterday and for the third consecutive day after the regulator disallowed creating of fresh positions in the August contract. Erode mandi remained closed on account of Janmasthmi and will reopen on Monday. Rainfall in Nizamabad is 24% lower than the normal as on 1/8/2012. Turmeric has been sown in th 0.44 lakh hectares in A.P as on 8 August 2012. The Spot as well as the Futures settled 1.4% and 1.65% lower on Thursday. As per circular issued by NCDEX, no fresh positions will be allowed in respect of Turmeric August 16, 2012 expiry contract from August 07, 2012 till the expiry of the contract. Only squaring up of existing positions will be allowed. The pre expiry margin on Turmeric has been increased to 5% for last 7 trading days increased on a daily basis on both buy and sell side from the existing 3% on daily basis for last 5 days.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX Sept contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Nizamabad mandi stood at 2,000 bags on Thursday. Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 90 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 201011. Erode is expected to produce 55 lakh bags of turmeric a rise of 29% as compared to previous year. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX Sept Futures Turmeric NCDEX Sept Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

valid for Aug 10, 2012 Support 16000-16200 5800-5880 Resistance 16580-16750 6090-6140

Outlook
Turmeric prices are expected to continue to trade lower as participants may square off their positions in the August contract after the regulator disallowed creating of fresh positions. In the medium to long term (Aug to September) prices may take cues from the sowing figures.

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Commodities Daily Report

Friday| August 10, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Mentha Oil
Mentha oil Futures traded on a positive note yesterday due to good demand in the domestic markets. Good demand exists in the domestic markets as stockists have been buying anticipating good demand from the pharmaceutical companies in the coming days. The spot as well as the Futures settled 1.55% and 0.76% higher on Thursday. Total Special Cash margin of 25% on the long side of Mentha Oil has been reduced to 10% in the May contract and 5% in June contract onwards from May 5, 2012. For detailed reference please refer to the Circular No: MCX/T&S/180/2012 dated 03/05/2012.

Market Highlights
Unit Mentha Oil- MCX Spot (Chandausi) Mentha Oil MCX July Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 1548 1389 Prev day 1.55 0.76

as on Aug 9, 2012 % Change WoW 4.77 0.17 MoM 6.54 5.64 YoY 34.63 20.77

Source: Reuters

Production, Arrivals and Exports

According to spot market sources, the overall acreage is estimated to increase from 1.75 lakh ha to 2.1 lakh ha this year. The overall production of Mentha is expected to increase by 30% - 40% as compared to last year. Arrivals of the fresh crop are going on in the mandis and currently stand around 1200 drums (each drum weighs 180 kgs). Exports of Mentha during April 2011 to January 2012 witnessed a decline of 6% to 12,850 tonnes as compared to 13,550 tonnes in the same period last year.

Technical Chart Mentha Oil

MCX Aug contract

Outlook
In the intraday trading session Mentha oil is expected to trade on a positive note. In long to medium term (July-September) prices are likely to remain under pressure due to peak arrival period.
Source: Telequote

Potato
In intraday potato September futures settled marginally down on ongoing fears that regulator might take some action to curb the rise in prices. Commodity market regulator Forward Markets Commission (FMC) has banned launch of new Tarkeshwar potato contracts. Also From 01-08-2012 no fresh positions shall be allowed during the Staggered Delivery period in all running contracts of Potato in MCX and NCDEX. Only squaring off of existing positions will be allowed during the Staggered Delivery period.

Market Highlights
Prev day -0.64 0.43

as on Aug 9, 2012 % Change

Unit Potato SpotNCDEX (Agra) Potato- NCDEX Aug '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 1184 1186

WoW 0.00 -2.75

MoM #N/A 5.23

YoY 182.30 226.69

Production and Arrivals Scenario

Around 200-220 lakh MT potato had been stored in the country in different cold storages during the current season. Although 27-30% of the cold storage stocks are released so far from overall producing belts, they are much lower compared to normal 35-38% every year. According to NHRDF, The sowing of potato seed for Kharif production in Karnataka completed but the area sown is adversely affected due to less and delayed rains. The sowing in hills of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Jammu and Kashmir are also completed. The seed sowing in Maharashtra for Kharif is continued, which is delayed due to delay arrival of monsoon, which is still scanty. The area for Kharif is expected to be less or may be same with delayed planting compared to last year, but it depends on further rains. With reports of crop damages in Karnataka, the supplies from this region to other states may also be affected as the overall output is expected to decline by 70-75%. In fact, the state may have to rely on the supplies from the north Indian markets.

Technical Chart Potato

NCDEX Sept contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Unit Mentha Oil Aug Futures Potato NCDEX Sept Futures Potato MCX Sept Futures Rs/kg Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

valid for Aug 10, 2012 Support 1355-1368 1236-1248 1268-1280 Resistance 1407-1420 1285-1300 1315-1325

Outlook
Potato futures in intraday may remain sideways as traders are adopting wait and watch policy expecting government to take some measures to curb the prices. Upcoming festive season might provide support to the prices in Medium term.

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