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August 8, 2012
BUY
CMP Target Price
% chg (qoq) 10.4 14.3 16.5 1QFY12 569 417 132 % chg (yoy) 20.1 30.9 31.3
Investment Period
Stock Info Sector Market Cap (` cr) Beta 52 Week High / Low Avg. Daily Volume Face Value (`) BSE Sensex Nifty Reuters Code Bloomberg Code
During 1QFY2013, United Bank of India (UBI) registered a strong performance, with net profit growth of 31.3% yoy and operating profit growth of 30.9% yoy, which was above our estimates primarily due to higher other income and lower operating expenses than what we estimated.
NIMs flat sequentially; Asset quality pressures remain: During 1QFY2013, the banks advances and deposits grew at a healthy pace of 19.4% and 16.3% respectively. The growth in advances was largely aided by higher priority sector lending, primarily to the agri and small industries segment. Current deposits grew at a strong 22.2% yoy, while growth in savings deposits remained healthy at 15.4% yoy. The reported CASA ratio improved by 22bp to 40.5% on a yoy basis. The bank further reduced its share of bulk deposits to total deposits to 16.2% from 21.5% in 1QFY2012. The reported NIM remained almost flat sequentially to 3.1%. The bank reported a strong performance even on the non-interest income (excluding treasury) front, with a growth of 30.2% yoy. On the asset quality front, the bank witnessed a marginal sequential increase of ~5bp each in the gross and net NPA ratio to 3.5% and 1.8% respectively. The banks slippages came in at `298cr compared to `590cr in 4QFY2012 (excluding NPA on advance to Kingfisher ~`276cr). The annualized slippage ratio stood at 1.9% compared to 4.4% in 4QFY2012 and 2.9% in 1QFY2012. The PCR for the bank stood at 69.3%. The bank restructured advances worth `1,120cr during the quarter (largely contributed by restructuring of advances to Rajasthan discom, HCC, and Bharti Shipyard), taking its outstanding restructured book to `4,093cr. The management expects no further restructuring on any other discom advance (total discom advances `740cr). However, they expect further restructuring of ~`600cr in the coming quarter.
Shareholding Pattern (%) Promoters MF / Banks / Indian Fls FII / NRIs / OCBs Indian Public / Others 81.6 6.3 0.8 11.3
3m 6.5 (5.4)
3yr 16.3 NA
Outlook and valuation: We believe the bank has several levers for structurally
improving its RoA. But execution risks in terms of improving yields while maintaining the asset quality continue to remain an investment concern on the stock. That said, the bank is trading at an inexpensive valuations of 0.4x FY2013E ABV (one of the lowest in the industry). The banks peers are trading at 0.6x-0.7x FY2014 ABV in spite of having similar and in some cases much lower CASA ratios. We value the stock at 0.6x FY2014E ABV; hence, we recommend a Buy rating on the stock with a target price of `79.
FY2011 2,169 55.9 457 49.7 2.7 13.3 4.3 0.6 0.6 14.1
FY2012 2,479 14.3 546 19.4 2.7 15.1 3.8 0.5 0.7 14.2
FY2013E 2,943 18.7 658 20.6 2.8 18.2 3.1 0.5 0.7 15.0
FY2014E 3,457 17.5 829 25.9 2.9 23.0 2.5 0.4 0.8 16.7
Vaibhav Agrawal
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6808 vaibhav.agrawal@angelbroking.com
Varun Varma
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6847 varun.varma@angelbroking.com
Sourabh Taparia
022 3935 7800 Ext: 6872 sourabh.taparia@angelbroking.com
1QFY13 2,284 1,751 514 12 6 1,600 684 215 134 55 81 10 70 899 353 226 127 546 292 125 167 254 80 174 31.6
4QFY12 2,132 1,606 491 7 29 1,513 619 238 180 48 58 33 99 857 379 234 146 478 307 342 (36) 1 171 22 149 12.8
% chg (qoq) 7.1 9.0 4.9 70.8 5.8 10.4 (9.5) (25.2) 13.4 38.9 (70.2) (28.9) 4.9 (7.0) (3.3) (12.9) 14.3 (4.8) (63.3) 48.4 266.4 16.5 1878bp
1QFY12 1,838 1,394 443 2 1,269 569 170 103 45 67 20 38 739 322 215 107 417 218 137 54 27 199 67 132 33.6
% chg (yoy) 24.2 25.6 16.1 652.9 26.1 20.1 26.7 30.2 20.9 21.4 (50.7) 83.4 21.7 9.7 5.3 18.5 30.9 34.0 (8.6) 524.9 27.4 19.7 31.3 (203)bp
FY2012 7,961 6,034 1,878 16 34 5,482 2,479 733 515 183 218 85 247 3,212 1,383 891 492 1,829 983 690 79 214 845 213 633 25.2
FY2011 6,341 4,634 1,673 10 25 4,172 2,169 637 439 174 198 59 206 2,806 1,299 814 485 1,507 838 436 402 669 145 524 21.7
% chg (yoy) 25.5 30.2 12.3 56.3 35.9 31.4 14.3 15.0 17.5 5.3 9.6 44.3 20.1 14.5 6.5 9.4 1.5 21.4 17.4 58.2 (46.6) 26.4 46.8 20.7 350bp
% chg 5.5 45.4 12.9 (5.6) 29.4 32.5 25.9 37.0 21.3
August 8, 2012
1QFY13 4QFY12 62,825 89,639 70.1 8,447 27,830 36,277 40.5 12.5 8.7 7.0 11.7 7.9 3.1 39.2 2,210 3.5 1,106 1.8 69.3 1.9 0.5 63,043 89,116 70.7 9,741 26,589 36,330 40.8 12.7 8.8 6.9 11.7 7.8 3.0 44.2 2,176 3.4 1,076 1.7 69.2 4.4 1.4
%chg (qoq) 1QFY12 (0.3) 0.6 (66)bp (13.3) 4.7 (0.1) (30)bp (19)bp (9)bp 6bp (2)bp 7bp 5bp (500)bp 1.6 6bp 2.8 5bp 17bp (252)bp (89)bp 52,607 77,104 68.2 6,914 24,120 31,034 40.2 13.2 9.1 6.4 11.2 7.8 3.0 43.5 1,535 2.9 878 1.7 70.2 2.9 0.6
%chg (yoy) 19.4 16.3 186bp 22.2 15.4 16.9 22bp (73)bp (41)bp 60bp 51bp 13bp 3bp (427)bp 44.0 58bp 25.9 10bp (92)bp (104)bp (13)bp
August 8, 2012
69.4 68.2
70.0
40.4 40.0
68.0
17.9 15.6
17.3 13.3
16.6 13.3
17.8 14.5
19.4 16.3
40.2
39.9
39.8
40.8
66.0
40.5
39.6
5.0 -
2.50
quarter stood at 1.9% compared to 4.4% in 4QFY2012 and 2.9% in 1QFY2012. As of 1QFY2013, the provision-to-coverage ratio including technical write-offs stood at 69.3% (69.2% in 4QFY2012). The bank restructured advances worth `1,120cr during the quarter, taking its outstanding restructured book to `4,093cr. The sharp jump in the restructuring book was largely due to restructuring of advances to the Rajasthan discom (`417cr), HCC (`311cr), and Bharti Shipyard (`198cr). The management expects no further restructuring on any other discom advance (total discom advances at `740cr). However, they expect further restructuring in the pipeline by ~`600cr in the coming quarter.
2.9 1.7
3.5 2.2
3.3 2.0
3.4 1.7
3.5 1.8
2.9
4.6
2.7
4.4
1.9 0.5
-
43.5
42.7
41.8
44.2
39.2
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.7
38.0 36.0
(10.0)
August 8, 2012
Investment arguments
Structurally strong CASA than peers
UBI has historically had a strong CASA ratio. The banks average CASA ratio during FY200512 has been 41.4%. Even during 1QFY2013, the bank had maintained a strong CASA ratio of ~40%, which is the highest among its peers, which consists of banks like Uco Bank, Allahabad Bank, Dena Bank and Syndicate Bank. Of the total CASA deposits, saving deposits, which are less volatile, accounted for 31.0% of the total deposits, while current deposits accounted for 9.4%. This high proportion of CASA deposits is mainly because of a large retail customer base spread across the eastern and northeastern regions. Of the total branch network of ~1,700 branches, 81% is concentrated in the eastern and northeastern regions. Moreover, 59% of UBIs branches are located in rural and semi-urban areas, giving the bank an access to low-cost deposits.
August 8, 2012
Earlier estimates FY2013 15.5 11.0 40.8 2.8 (12.2) 15.0 15.0 3.1 FY2014 17.0 14.0 40.4 3.0 12.9 15.0 15.0 3.0
Revised estimates FY2013 15.0 11.0 40.8 2.8 (5.7) 12.0 12.0 2.5 FY2014 17.0 14.0 40.4 2.9 6.5 16.0 16.0 2.5
FY2014 Var. (%) (0.4) 7.4 1.0 (2.6) 3.8 8.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 Revised Earlier estimates estimates 3,485 727 4,212 1,829 2,382 1,074 1,309 425 884 3,457 737 4,194 1,797 2,397 1,053 1,344 436 908 Var. (%) (0.8) 1.4 (0.4) (1.8) 0.6 (1.9) 2.7 2.7 2.7
Revised Earlier estimates estimates 2,955 644 3,599 1,591 2,008 918 1,090 354 736 2,943 691 3,634 1,549 2,085 994 1,091 354 737
0.5x
0.65x
0.8x
0.95x
1.1x
August 8, 2012
Source: Company, Angel Research; Note:*Target multiples=SOTP Target Price/ABV (including subsidiaries) # without adjusting for SASF
Company Background
United Bank of India is a mid-sized public sector bank, with operations mostly concentrated in the eastern and northeastern states of India (81%). These states have contributed to the bank's high CASA deposits, though low credit demand especially in the northeast has prompted the bank to so far rely more on large corporate loans, including in consortium.
August 8, 2012
54,536 68,180
98,919 112,768
62,031 77,005
17,924 26,068 35,394 42,330 27.0 624 1,679 14.2 19.6 651 1,578 24.1
62,031 77,005
August 8, 2012
August 8, 2012
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E-mail: research@angelbroking.com
Website: www.angelbroking.com
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Ratings (Returns):
August 8, 2012
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