POPULATION AND ENVIRONMENT

A Complex Relationship
Between 1960 and 1999, Earth's population doubled from three billion to six billion people. In many
ways, this reflected good news for humanity: child mortality rates plummeted, life expectancy
increased, and people were on average healthier and better nourished than at any time in history.
However, during the same period, changes in the global environment began to accelerate: pollution
heightened, resource depletion continued, and the threat of rising sea levels increased. Does the
simultaneous occurrence of population growth and environmental decline over the past century
indicate that more people translate into greater environmental degradation?
In The Environmental Implications of Population Dynamics, Lori Hunter synthesizes current knowledge
about the influence of population dynamics on the environment. Specifically, her report examines the
following:
• The relationship between demographic factors-- population size, distribution, and composition--
and environmental change.
• The mediating factors that influence this relationship: technological, institutional, policy, and
cultural forces.
• Two specific aspects of environmental change affected by population dynamics: climate change
and land-use change.
• Implications for policy and further research.
Hunter concludes that population dynamics have important environmental implications but that the
sheer size of population represents only one important variable in this complex relationship. Other
demographic dynamics, including changes in population flows and densities, can also pose challenging
environmental problems.
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPLICATIONS OF SPECIFIC POPULATION FACTORS
According to recent United Nations estimates, global population is increasing by approximately 80
million--the size of Germany--each year. Although fertility rates have declined in most areas of the
world, population growth continues to be fueled by high levels of fertility, particularly in Asia and Africa.
In numerous Middle Eastern and African nations, the average number of children a woman would be
expected to have given current fertility levels remains above 6.0--for example, 6.4 in Saudi Arabia, 6.7
in Yemen, 6.9 in Uganda, and as high as 7.5 in Niger. Even in areas where fertility rates have declined
to near replacement levels (2.1 children per couple), population continues to grow because of
"population momentum," which occurs when a high proportion of the population is young.
Population Size
No simple relationship exists between population size and environmental change. However, as global
population continues to grow, limits on such global resources as arable land, potable water, forests,
and fisheries have come into sharper focus. In the second half of the twentieth century, decreasing
farmland contributed to growing concern of the limits to global food production. Assuming constant
rates of production, per capita land requirements for food production will near the limits of arable land
over the course of the twenty-first century. Likewise, continued population growth occurs in the context
of an accelerating demand for water: Global water consumption rose sixfold between 1900 and 1995,
more than double the rate of population growth.
Population Distribution
The ways in which populations are distributed across the globe also affect the environment. Continued
high fertility in many developing regions, coupled with low fertility in more-developed regions, means
that 80 percent of the global population now lives in less-developed nations. Furthermore, human
migration is at an all-time high: the net flow of international migrants is approximately 2 million to 4
million per year and, in 1996, 125 million people lived outside their country of birth. Much of this
migration follows a rural-to-urban pattern, and, as a result, the Earth's population is also increasingly
urbanized. As recently as 1960, only one-third of the world's population lived in cities. By 1999, the
percentage had increased to nearly half (47 percent). This trend is expected to continue well into the
twenty-first century.
The distribution of people around the globe has three main implications for the environment. First, as
less-developed regions cope with a growing share of population, pressures intensify on already
dwindling resources within these areas. Second, migration shifts relative pressures exerted on local
environments, easing the strain in some areas and increasing it in others. Finally, urbanization,
particularly in less-developed regions, frequently outpaces the development of infrastructure and
environmental regulations, often resulting in high levels of pollution.
Population Composition
Composition can also have an effect on the environment because different population subgroups
behave differently. For example, the global population has both the largest cohort of young people (age
24 and under) and the largest proportion of elderly in history. Migration propensities vary by age. Young
people are more likely than their older counterparts to migrate, primarily as they leave the parental
home in search of new opportunities. As a result, given the relatively large younger generation, we
might anticipate increasing levels of migration and urbanization, and therefore, intensified urban
environmental concerns.
Other aspects of population composition are also important: Income is especially relevant to
environmental conditions. Across countries, the relationship between economic development and
environmental pressure resembles an inverted U-shaped curve; nations with economies in the middle-
development range are most likely to exert powerful pressures on the natural environment, mostly in
the form of intensified resource consumption and the production of wastes. By contrast, the least-
developed nations, because of low levels of industrial activity, are likely to exert relatively lower levels
of environmental pressure. At highly advanced development stages, environmental pressures may
subside because of improved technologies and energy efficiency.
Within countries and across households, however, the relationship between income and environmental
pressure is different. Environmental pressures can be greatest at the lowest and highest income levels.
Poverty can contribute to unsustainable levels of resource use as a means of meeting short-term
subsistence needs. Furthermore, higher levels of income tend to correlate with disproportionate
consumption of energy and production of waste.
MEDIATING FACTORS: TECHNOLOGY, POLICY CONTEXTS, AND CULTURAL FACTORS
Current technology, policies, and culture influence the relationship between human population
dynamics and the natural environment. The technological changes that have most affected
environmental conditions relate to energy use. The consumption of oil, natural gas, and coal increased
dramatically during the twentieth century, as seen in Figure 1. Until about 1960, developed nations
were responsible for most of this consumption. Since then, however, industrialization in the newly
developing nations has resulted in greater reliance on resource- intensive and highly polluting
production processes.
Policy actions can ameliorate environmental decline--as in the case of emissions standards--or
exacerbate degradationas in the case in Central Asia's Aral Sea basin, which has shrunk 40 percent
since 1960 and has become increasingly contaminated, in large part because of the irrigation policies
of the former Soviet Union.
Cultural factors also influence how populations affect the environment. For example, cultural variations
in attitudes toward wildlife and conservation influence environmental conservation strategies, because
public support for various policy interventions will reflect societal values.
TWO SPECIFIC AREAS OF POPULATION-ENVIRONMENT INTERACTION: GLOBAL CLIMATE
CHANGE AND LAND-USE PATTERNS
Two specific areas illustrate the challenges of understanding the complex influence of population
dynamics on the environment: land-use patterns and global climate change.
Land Use
Fulfilling the resource requirements of a growing population ultimately requires some form of land-use
change--to provide for the expansion of food production through forest clearing, to intensify production
on already cultivated land, or to develop the infrastructure necessary to support increasing human
numbers. During the past three centuries, the amount of Earth's cultivated land has grown by more
than 450 percent, increasing from 2.65 million square kilometers to 15 million square kilometers. A
related process, deforestation, is also critically apparent: A net decline in forest cover of 180 million
acres took place during the 15-year interval 19801995, although changes in forest cover vary greatly
across regions. Whereas developing countries experienced a net loss of 200 million acres, developed
countries actually experienced a net increase, of 20 million acres (see Figure 2).
These types of land-use changes have several ecological impacts. Converting land to agricultural use
can lead to soil erosion, and the chemicals often used in fertilizers can also degrade soil. Deforestation
is also associated with soil erosion and can lessen the ability of soil to hold water, thereby increasing
the frequency and severity of floods. Human-induced changes in land use often result in habitat
fragmentation and loss, the primary cause of species decline. In fact, if current rates of forest clearing
continue, one-quarter of all species on Earth could be lost within the next 50 years.
Global Climate Change
Recent years have been among the warmest on record. Research suggests that temperatures have
been influenced by growing concentrations of greenhouse gases, which absorb solar radiation and
warm the atmosphere. Research also suggests that many changes in atmospheric gas are human-
induced. The demographic influence appears primarily in three areas. First, contributions related to
industrial production and energy consumption lead to carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuel use;
second, land-use changes, such as deforestation, affect the exchange of carbon dioxide between the
Earth and the atmosphere; and third, some agricultural processes, such as paddy-rice cultivation and
livestock production, are responsible for greenhouse gas releases into the atmosphere, especially
methane. According to one estimate, population growth will account for 35 percent of the global
increase in CO2 emissions between 1985 and 2100 and 48 percent of the increase in developing
nations during that period. As such, both attention to demographic issues and the development of
sustainable production and consumption processes are central responses to the processes involved in
global warming.
WHAT SHOULD POLICYMAKERS DO?
The policy implications of demographic influences on the environment are complicated and can
sometimes be controversial. While some view large, rapidly growing populations in developing regions
as the primary culprit in environmental decline, others focus on the costly environmental effects of
overconsumption among the slowly increasing populations of the developed nations. These differing
emphases naturally point to radically different solutions: slow population increase in less-developed
nations or change destructive consumption and production patterns in the more-developed nations.
This debate, however, presumes a one-step solution to the complex problems created by population
pressures on the environment. Both population size and consumption influence environmental change
and are among the many factors that need to be incorporated into realistic policy debate and
prescriptions. Examples of policies that could address the environmental implications of demographic
factors include policies to promote effective family planning, more effective rural development to slow
migration to crowded urban centers, and incentives to encourage sustainable levels of consumption
and the use of efficient, cleaner technologies.
WHAT SHOULD RESEARCHERS DO?
Disciplinary boundaries between social and natural scientists have hindered the study of the
interrelationships between demographics and the environment. These barriers, however, are beginning
to fall. The trend toward interdisciplinary environmental research must be encouraged, and researchers
should continue to improve analytic approaches and collect new data that allow examination of the
links between social and natural processes. The use of recent technology (e.g., satellite remote
sensing) to study environmental change promises to contribute significantly to expanding knowledge in
this area.
Environment and Pollution Curriculum for College in India
A Welcome Sign for Environmental Awareness Moment:
Environmental science has been a subject of great importance to us from ancient time. However, not
much concern was expressed until some signs of its detritions are noticed as a result of human
activities. Several governmental and non-governmental organizations have initiated programs to
monitor and understand it better. Atmospheric chemistry, pollution, air quality are among the
prominent environmental issues of the 21stcentury. Therefore awareness about it must begin at the
grass root level through schools. Hence the Supreme Court of India’s directive, mentioned below,
comes as a welcome step to help the students across the country to make aware about the
environmental science. The Hon’ble Supreme Court in its Judgment delivered on 18th December 2003 in
Writ Petition No 860 of 1991 has directed the NCERT to prepare a model syllabus for the Environmental
Education to be taught at different grades. The Supreme Court directed all the
States and educational agencies in the country to introduce environment as a compulsory subject in all
classes in schools up to the higher secondary level from the academic year 2004-05. It directed the
National Council for Educational Research and Training (NCERT) to frame a model syllabus for the
schools keeping in view the 1991 judgment and submit it before the court on or before 14 th April 2004
so as to enable them to consider the feasibility to introduce such syllabus uniformly through out the
country. The direction No 4 issued by the Hon’ble Supreme Court as per its order dated 22 nd November
1991 read thus: “We accept on principle that through the medium of education awareness of the
environment and its problems related to pollution should be taught as a compulsory subject. Learned
Attorney General pointed out to us that the Central Government is associated with education at higher
levels and University Grants Commission can monitor only the undergraduate and postgraduate
studies. The rest of it, according to him, is a state subject. He has agreed that the university Grants
Commission will take appropriate steps immediately to give effect to what we have said, that is
requiring the universities to prescribe a course on Environment. They would consider the feasibility of
making this a compulsory subject at every level in college education. So far as education up to the
college level is concern, we would require every State Government. and every Education Board
connected with education up to the matriculation stage or even intermediate colleges to immediately
take steps to enforce compulsory education on environment in graded way. This should be so done that
in the next academic year there would be compliance with this requirement”. Hence, the above
Supreme Court directive is a positive gesture for environmental science awareness campaign. The
concept to save our environment will automatically follow once awareness is created about its
importance in the main stream. Now it is left to the implementing agencies as to how fast and
effectively they can act on it. In this direction, National Council of Educational Research and Training
(NCERT) has initiated to consult and collect opinion of various experts / institutions regarding the
perceptions in various dimensions of environmental education at different stages of school education.
Some issues pertaining to overall implications like how one should introduce the course without
increasing curriculum load and what are the implications of this in teacher’s education, etc are basic
issues which can be debated and may be kept aside for the time being. Because this may certainly
require a proper balance in overall load on a student by shortening the syllabus of other subjects
without compromising the important elements and at the same time full weightage should be given to
the new subject. We should start working directly and more rigorously on the content and material to
be tough in a systematic manner in different standards regarding the environment subject. The
environmental science should be considered as compulsory subject irrespective of the selection of
optional subject. In a later stage (say in intermediate or so), this may be included as specialized course
rather than subject, which may cover different disciplines of environmental science in detail.
Indo US Workshop “Modeling of Transport of Air Pollution”
An Indo US Workshop on “Modeling of Transport of Air Pollutants” has been organized jointly by
National Environmental Engineering Research Institute, Nagpur and The Ohio State University, Ohio,
USA at Nagpur, India during November 11-13, 2003. This workshop was sponsored by Indo-US, S & T
forum, Department of Science and Technology, New Delhi. It was inaugurated by Shri. Suresh Prabhu,
chirman, task force for linking of rivers and Ex-Environment Minister, Govt of India. There were number
of leading research papers presented in this workshop by several experts from USA and India. The
workshop covered vast area to address impact of pollutants on Agriculture, Health and Atmosphere. Dr.
Moti L. Mittal and Dr Chhemendra Sharma (who were also the investigators and office bearers of the
project) presented preliminary results on the distribution of chemical species (mainly pollutants like O3,
NOx, CO, Peroxyacylnitrate) over the selective Indian cities using the Episodic Regional Chemical
Transport Model called HANK Model. Hotspots with reference to these chemical pollutants were
identified. However such results with 60 Km resolution scale could only present a rough idea about the
distribution. The input to such model goes from general circulation models (like MM5), which are highly
sensitive to several meteorological parameters.
On the other hand regional pollution models suffer from several approximations. The weaker link is the
emission inventories for various pollutants (NOX, CO and VOC etc) from various sectors like biomass
burning, transport, agricultural, residues, etc. Correct attribution of these inputs in pollution models is
most critical for pollution forecasting. The status of emission inventories of various pollutants over India
is in its initial stage. In this direction an exciting work on “Gridding CO Emissions Over India using
GIS Techniques and Modelling Ozone Pollutants” has been presented by Dr. Gufran Beig (ENVIS
Co-ordinator at IITM). The presented results on the gridded inventories of CO over the Indian region
using the GIS based modeling, were the outcome of the joint venture of Indian Institute of Tropical
Meteorology, Pune, Center for Development of Advanced Computing, Pune and National Physical
Laboratory, New Delhi. This paper further elaborated upon the pollution forecasting and the sensitivity
of emission inventories over the distribution of the concentration of ozone and secondary pollutants
using the global three dimensional chemical transport model being operated at IITM, Pune. Presented
result clearly demonstrated an urgent need of systematic gridded emission inventories over the Indian
region. This needs to be done if any fruitful and meaningful pollution forecasting modeling has to be
carried out for Indian region. In addition to this some more interesting presentations were made
related to- Uncertainty Analysis in Air Quality Dispersion Modeling; Air Quality Prediction System;
Transport of Particulate and Fine Particulate Matters; Effects of Air Pollution on Agriculture; Impact of Air
Pollution on Soil Health and Productivity of Crops in urban Areas; Air Pollutants of Concern for Human
Health; Health Impact of Air Pollution in Rural and Urban India; Indoor Air Pollutants Associated with
Solid Fuel Use, etc. In conclusion, it was an exciting meet.