DAYARAYAN MANAGEMENT & CONSULTING World in 2060

Powers Rise and Fall of Top Economic Powers

2012

SUITE 1000-355 BURRARD STREET VANCOUVER BC V6C 2G8 CANADA

World in 2060 or Rise and fall of Top Economic Power

By: Gholamhossein Davani NYSSCPA, CAAA, APCBC, CFE, IICA It is about 15 years that China and emerging economic are main problem for traditional economic power. In 1900, London was the capital of the world. As was famously remarked, The Sun never set on the British empire. European Imperialist nations were grabbing colonies in Asia, Africa and Latin America. All the great superpowers were prospering, although at the expense of their colonies. One would have expected the world to be peaceful and stable as everyone was gaining. By the 1950s, the United Kingdom was replaced as the superpower by one of its former colonies, the United States of America. After the Second World War the two super power controlled all the around the world and cold war replace real war. By the fall down Soviet Union and finishing cold war the globalization process was raise but with credit crisis and also financial crisis after 2007 ,this is an effort by every body to predict what the world may be by 2030, 2050 or 2060 ?! The main indicators to compare world economy are Gross Domestic Product (GDP) based on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) that public people dont understand what PPP is?!! After Raise of China Dragon and especially financial crisis 2002, all advanced countries were looking head "What happen in future" .In 2003, Goldman Sachs attempted to project which countries had the potential to become the world's largest economies over the next fifty years. in the other hand Price Water House & Coopers (PWC) the World top accounting firm also published special report was named world in 2050 .PWC presented new model for future economy projection but six months after PWC report Credit Crisis was begun that hasn't estimated by any professional economist in spite that they were declare to can projection future economy!! I am certified public accountant but interested in political economy and many of my articled are about political economy and Economic development .I review and study carefully all articles and published related to future economy and find that majority researcher use only one method to compare world different economic to show which economic is stronger or bigger .This method is named PPP.

What is PPP?! A purchasing power parity (PPP) between two countries, A and B, is the ratio of the number of units of country As currency needed to purchase in country A the same quantity of a specific good or service as one unit of country Bs currency will purchase in country B. PPPs can be expressed in the currency of either of the countries. In practice, they are usually computed among large numbers of countries and expressed in terms of a single currency, with the U.S. dollar (US$) most commonly used as the base or numeracies currency" Global Purchasing Power Parities and Real Expenditures. 2005 International Comparison Program. The World Bank. The review of PPP shows this scale and indicator is not reasonable and logical to compare different economic as capital is social relation so we need several factors to compare these relation, especially when we want to use "Super power" terminology in economic and political .The super power is not only word or sound but super power has some specific factors. Which factors are necessary for economic super power?! To be economic super power the country must be have necessary several factors as same as: 1- Population 2- Natural resources 3- Human resources ( people educated) 4- Personal economic out put 5- GDP per capital 6- Area 7- Strong Military 8- Democracy and transparency 9- Good governance 10-Access to water and healthy for population For example countries with the most highly educated citizens are also some of the wealthiest in the world. The United States, Japan and Canada are on our list and also have among the largest GDPs. Norway and Australia, also featured, have the second and sixth-highest GDPs per capita, respectively. All these countries aggressively invest in education. The countries that invest the most in education have the most-educated people. All of the best-educated countries, except for the UK, fall within the top 15 OECD countries for greatest spending on tertiary that is, college or college-equivalent spending as a percentage of GDP. The U.S. spends the second most and Canada spends the fourth most. Interestingly, public expenditure on educational institutions relative to private spending by these countries is small compared with other countries in the OECD. While the majority of education is still funded with public money, eight of the countries on our list rely the least on public funding as a percentage of total education spending.
3

Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Table (1) Top 10 Educated Countries 2012 Ave. Annual Population GDP Per Country Grow With Capital rate 1999-2009 postsecondary Canada 2.30% 50% 39,070 Israel 3.2 45% 28,596 Japan 3.20% 44% 33,751 USA 1.40% 41% 46,588 New Zealand 3.50% 40% 29,871 S. Korea 5.30% 39% 29,101 Norway 2.7 37% 56,617 UK 4% 37% 35,504 Australia 3.30% 37% 40,719 Finland 1.80% 37% 36,585

Pop. Grow rate (2000-2009) 9.89% 19.02% 0.46 8.68% 11.88 3.70% 7.52% 3.47% 14.63% 3.15%

Source: www.247 wallst.com

Although develop countries spend so much more than emerging countries on research and development (R&D) that this index shows access knowledge base product. Table below shows what percentage of GDP allocated to R&D in developed countries.
Table (2) - Research and development spending to GDP 2011 Expenditures % of on R&D Rank Country GDP PPP ($Bln. PPP) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 USA China Japan Germany S. Korea France UK India Canada Russia Brazil Italy Taiwan Spain Australia Sweden Netherlands Israel Austria Swiss
4

405.3 153.7 144.1 69.5 44.8 42.2 38.4 36.1 24.3 23.1 19.4 19 19 17.2 15.9 11.9 10.8 9.4 8.3 7.5

2.7% 1.4% 3.3% 2.3% 3.0% 1.9% 1.7% 0.9% 1.8% 1.0% 0.9% 1.1% 2.3% 1.3% 1.7% 3.3% 1.6% 4.2% 2.5% 2.3%

In spite that China might overtake the US to become the largest economy in the world before 2017, and even might be India can take over US by 2050 in GDP by base of PPP but realty it is joke that we can accept India or China can be main competitor US Economy that I will show in GDP nominal they are so different .Unfortunately all comparison has been done by everyone ,all estimates are based on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), an economic growth indicator that takes into account the purchasing power of each country's currency, instead of the prevailing exchange rate conversion. For example China economy is expected to be nearly $Bln. 88,086 on PPP basis by 2060 from $ Bln.11,290 in 2011. Our report said China will pass the US as the largest economy in the world in 2025 with purchase power parity US GDP will be $ Bln. 22,749 in compare with China GDP $ Bln.23,774 so China will be ahead of US with more than $ Bln. 1,025 The US was the worlds largest economy for about a century, since the British Empire suffered severely in the Second World War. China can now look for a reign on the throne for about 30-40 years before the currently fastest growing major economy, India, is likely to surpass them. India became the worlds third largest economy current year and passed Japan with the help of their growing population and will challenge the size of the US economy in a decade.US Companies are 132 as 500 top largest companies against China 86 and Japan 68 in 2012. Even though China will pass the US in total, the US will be the second largest economy after 2025 and is still by far the nation with the biggest GDP per capita with $ 59,088 followed by China as$ 17,942 that US GDP per capital will 3.29 times more than China. Comparison of GDP per capita level and contrary to most expectations, the US would continue to be the leading global superpower. Even today despite the recession, the US GDP per capital in 2025 will be estimated more than the next four nations put together. Especially demographics of the US would be radically different as the white majority today will be overtaken by huge influx of intelligent immigrants and also a secular and democratic state, the US would be the leader in technology, military as well as the global economy. In the other hand don't forget that new emerging economic would be top large economy in 1800 age. Look at the below table that shows GDP period 1700-1973.

Table (3)-GDP Comparison 1700- 1973 Year USA Russian UK Japan India Germany France China Italy Spain Mexico World 1700 0.5 16 10 15 90 13 19 82 14 7 25 371 1870 98 83 100 25 134 72 72 189 41 19 6 1,110 1913 517 232 347 71 204 237 144 241 95 41 25 2,733 1950 1455 510 675 161 222 265 220 244 164 61 67 5,331 1973 3536 1513 1280 1242 494 944 683 739 582 266 279 16,022

The above table emphasis the new emerging market would be super power 18th and 19th. Age!!

For more information table (4) shows historical changes in GDP Countries and Region as $ M.USD between 1-2003
Table (4)- Historical World GDP $ Million USD 1-2003
Country / Region Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Italy Netherlands Norway Sweden Switzerland UK Sub-total (1) Portugal Spain Other Total Western Europe Eastern Europe Former USSR USA Other Western offshoots Total Western offshoots Mexico Other Latin America Total Latin America Japan China India Other east Asia West Asia Total Asia (excl. Japan) Africa World 1 213 135 72 8 2,366 1,225 6,475 85 40 80 128 320 11,146 180 1,867 1,240 14,433 1,956 1,560 272 176 448 880 1,360 2,240 1,200 26,820 33,750 4,845 10,120 75,535 8,030 105,402 1000 298 170 144 16 2,763 1,435 2,250 128 80 160 123 800 8,366 255 1,800 504 10,925 2,600 2,840 520 228 748 1,800 2,760 4,560 3,188 26,550 33,750 8,968 12,415 81,683 13,835 120,379 1500 1,414 1,225 443 136 10,912 8,256 11,550 723 183 382 411 2,815 38,450 606 4,495 632 44,183 6,696 8,458 800 320 1,120 3,188 4,100 7,288 7,700 61,800 60,500 20,822 10,495 153,617 19,383 248,445 1600 2,093 1,561 569 215 15,559 12,656 14,410 2,072 266 626 750 6,007 56,784 814 7,029 975 65,602 9,289 11,426 600 320 920 1,134 2,629 3,763 9,620 96,000 74,250 24,582 12,637 207,469 23,473 331,562 1700 2,483 2,288 727 255 19,539 13,650 14,630 4,047 361 1,231 1,068 10,709 70,988 1,638 7,481 1,106 81,213 11,393 16,196 527 306 833 2,558 3,788 6,346 15,390 82,800 90,750 28,440 12,291 214,281 25,776 371,428 1820 4,104 4,529 1,471 913 35,468 26,819 22,535 4,288 777 3,098 2,165 36,232 142,399 3,043 12,299 2,110 159,851 24,906 37,678 12,548 951 13,499 5,000 9,921 14,921 20,739 228,600 111,417 36,451 15,270 391,738 31,266 694,598 1870 8,419 13,716 3,782 1,999 72,100 72,149 41,814 9,952 2,360 6,927 5,581 100,180 338,979 4,219 19,556 4,712 367,466 50,163 83,646 98,374 13,119 111,493 6,214 21,097 27,311 25,393 189,740 134,882 53,155 22,468 400,245 45,234 1,110,951 1913 23,451 32,347 11,670 6,389 144,489 237,332 95,487 24,955 5,988 17,403 16,483 224,618 840,612 7,467 41,653 12,478 902,210 134,793 232,351 517,383 65,558 582,941 25,921 94,875 120,796 71,653 241,431 204,242 122,874 40,588 609,135 79,486 2,733,365 1950 25,702 47,190 29,654 17,051 220,492 265,354 164,957 60,642 17,728 47,269 42,545 347,850 1,286,434 17,615 61,429 30,600 1,396,078 185,023 510,243 1,455,916 179,574 1,635,490 67,368 347,960 415,328 160,966 244,985 222,222 256,938 106,283 830,428 203,131 5,331,689 1973 85,227 118,516 70,032 51,724 683,965 944,755 582,713 175,791 44,852 109,794 117,251 675,941 3,660,561 63,397 266,896 105,910 4,096,764 550,756 1,513,070 3,536,622 521,667 4,058,289 279,302 1,110,158 1,389,460 1,242,932 739,414 494,832 839,258 548,120 2,621,624 549,993 16,022,888 2003 173,311 219,069 124,781 106,749 1,315,601 1,577,423 1,110,691 348,464 118,591 193,352 164,773 1,280,625 6,733,430 144,694 684,537 294,733 7,857,394 786,408 1,552,231 8,430,762 1,277,267 9,708,029 740,226 2,391,919 3,132,145 2,699,261 6,187,984 2,267,136 3,926,975 1,473,739 13,855,834 1,322,087 40,913,389

Source: Wikipedia

But what was happened after 2000?! Table below shows changing process to world GDP after 2000 that is huge different with table (4).
Table (5)- Historical World GDP 2000-2060 Year $Bln USD Year $ Bln-USD 2060 350,000 1990 27,537 2040 210,000 1970 12,137 2030 145,000 1950 4081 2020 111,088 1940 3001 2017 98,041 1920 1733 2015 74,604 1900 1102 2010 56,794 1875 568.8 2000 41,016 1700 99.8

A natural rivalry will arise between the US and China of which the signs are evident even today. Looking to seek revenge, the rule in China will become even more dictatorial and anti-US sentiment will grow specially they think all matters related to Middle East and replace US army in Afghan and Iraq is by the control oil and Gas resources to control China and India grow . I arranged all main economic keys are these two countries in table (3) to can compare why WE and China could be super power!!

Table (6)- Comparison Key Economic Facts US and China

Key Fact GDO-Current USD GDP-PPPB-USD %World Export % of world Goods Export %of world services export Trade balance 2008 Official Reserve B-USD Official Gold Reserve B-USD Industrial output 2008B-USD Services Out put 2008 B-USD Cooper-1000Tnnes-2009 Lead- 1000 Tonnes Zink-1000Tonnes Tin-1000Tonnes Nikel-1000Tonnes Aluminium-1000tonnes Precious metal -Tonnes Platinum-Tonnes Rubber-1000Tonnes %R&D Expenditure to GDP No.Patents2006-008 Direct Foreign Invest B-USD Share of Top 24 big Company Share of Top 15 banks Stock Market USA China Key Fact Industrial output 2008-B-USD Agricultural output 2008-USDB Meat Product 2008-Tonnes Fruit Product-2008M-Tonnes vegetable-M -Tonnes Cereal-M-Tonnes Wheat 1000 Tonnes-2009 Rice -1000Tonnes -200 Coarsegrains-1000-Tonnes Tea - 1000Tonnes 2009 Raw wool-1000 Tonnes 2009 Cotton1000Tonnes2009 Major oilseeds-1000Tonnes 2009-10 Oil-1000 barrel per day Natural gas B-cubic metric 2010 Coal -M-Tonnes Energy product-M-Tonnes Energy consumers- M-tonnes innovation index Car produt-1000 Road network -1000Km Railway network- 1000Km Merchant fleets No. household-M Energy largest producer M-Tonnes USA 3,073 183 43 28 36 481 60,400 --349,000 ----2,654 100,410 7,513 611 552 1,665 2,284 5,65 5,711 6,486 226 1,782 117 1,993 China 2,104 489 74 107 457 403 115,100 136,570 164,900 1,203 167 6,925 72,540 4,071 96.8 1,800 1,814 2,116 ? 13,790 3,799 63.6 3,499 384 1,705 14,660 5,875 14,660 10,900 28.11 8.4 42.17 (504) 132 284 1,831 10,562 1.204 409 690 ----1.727 223 7.4 1,962 2.76 82,284 316 14 --17,139 29.7 10.4 17.3 426 2,876 36 1.85 1,734 691 1,908 3,092 128 Mar-00 12,846 314 --3,500 1.54 34,537 108 2 3 4,769

The world economy grew was %5 in 2010. That its fastest rate for many years, led by the extraordinary boom in China and very high growth in most other third world countries too. America and Japan also had fairly strong growth, although Western Europe had a more dismal performance but in 2011 the grow rate decreased to %3.9. Can the good times be appears in next year Or is the world economy heading for a crisis?
Table (7) Main index famous economy 2011 Index UK Germany France GDP Real Grow rate %Net government Debt to GDP Grow rate of GDP Inflation
Source: Financial times Jan. 2012

USA (1.8) 103.6 2.3 2.9

(2.3) 97.2 0.6 3.4

(1.4) 87.3 0.6 2.3

0.5 102.4 0.2 2.3

What was happened that the world economic boom has been driven?!
The several economists researcher report emphasis that the world economic boom has been driven by two factors that first is t it has been driven by a gradual special economic in China, India, Brazil and even Russia that said " Control government market " . The average tariff level in a country like China has been lowered from 41% in 1992 to 6% in 2004. The increased new capitalism ( Controlled Market ) of world trade has increased the scope of international division of labor and permanently helped raise growth in the world as a whole and in particular in third-world countries. Particularly if trade is freed even more, this factor should continue to help the world economy to prosper. Another reason for the increased growth in emerging economies is the free market reforms implemented there with a country like China transforming itself from one of the most destructive communist systems in the history of mankind (that is saying a lot) to a virtual "capitalist paradise" with a seemingly endless supply of cheap but competent labor and with no welfare state and no unions and with many other emerging economies also undertaking free market reforms of varying radicalism. To better understand the prospects for the world economy, should analyze in more detail the strengths and weaknesses of the four main economic powerhouses of the world, was named BRIC includes Brazil ,Russia ,India and China (BRIC) .Remind that BRIC is a grouping acronym that refers to the countries of Brazil, Russia, India and China, which are all deemed to be at a similar stage of newly advanced economic development. It is typically rendered as "the BRICs" or "the BRIC countries" or "the BRIC economies" or alternatively as the "Big Four"- Wikipedia-.
10

is currently growing at a relatively slow pace, with seasonally-adjusted first quarter real GDP growth of 0.2% over the previous quarter. The economy is suffering from a weak and volatile Real which although helps exporters, harms companies who have borrowed in US$. Consumer demand remains strong however bolstered by low unemployment, which is has averaged 5.9% in the first four months of 2012. Brazil has moderately free markets and an inward-oriented economy. Its economy is the largest in Latin American nations and the second largest in the western hemisphere. Brazil is one of the fastestgrowing major economies in the world with an average annual GDP growth rate of over 5 percent. Brazilian GDP was $ Bln.2,172 in 2011 . The Brazilian economy has been predicted to become one of the four largest economies in the world in the decades to come. Russia has a market economy with enormous natural resources, particularly oil and natural gas. It has the 12th largest economy in the world by nominal GDP and the 7th largest by purchasing power parity (PPP). Since the turn of the 21st century, higher domestic consumption and greater political stability have bolstered economic growth in Russia. The country ended 2008 with its ninth straight year of growth, averaging 7% annually. Growth was primarily driven by non-traded services and goods for the domestic market, as opposed to oil or mineral extraction and exports. The average salary in Russia was $640 per month in early 2008, up from $80 in 2000. Approximately 13.7% of Russians lived below the national poverty line in 2010, significantly down from 40% in 1998 at the worst of the post-Soviet collapse. Unemployment in Russia was at 6% in 2007, down from about 12.4% in 1999. The middle class has grown from just 8 million persons in 2000 to 55 million persons in 2006. Russia's problem is not economic and it has never been economic it is basically a moral problem and until that problem is solved, no reasonable economic system, no market economy...has a chance of taking root there. Russia's transition from "Governmental Capitalism to "criminal capitalism" had occurred in three stages includes hyperinflation, privatization, and criminalization. Hyperinflation began on 1992, when the Gaidar government freed virtually all prices, consequently wiping out the life-savings of millions of Russians. Oil, natural gas, metals, and timber account for more than 80% of Russian exports abroad. Since 2003, however, exports of natural resources started decreasing in economic importance as the internal market strengthened considerably. Despite higher energy prices, oil and gas only contribute to 5.7% of Russias GDP and the government predicts this will drop to 3.7% by 2011. Oil export earnings allowed Russia to increase its foreign reserves from $12 billion in 1999 to $597.3 billion on 1 August 2008, the third largest foreign exchange reserves in the world. The macroeconomic policy under Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin was prudent and sound, with excess income being stored in the Stabilization Fund of Russia. In 2006, Russia repaid most of its
11

Brazil

formerly massive debts, leaving it with one of the lowest foreign debts among major economies. The Stabilization Fund helped Russia to come out of the global financial crisis in a much better state than many experts had expected. According to the International Monetary Fund, Indias nominal GDP stood at $Bln-Us 1,676, which makes it the eleventh-largest economy in the world, corresponding to a per capita income of $ US 1100. If purchasing power parity (PPP) is taken into account, Indias economy is the fourth largest in the world at $Bln-Us 4,460. With an average annual GDP growth rate of 5.8% for the past two decades, India is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. With an estimated population in 2050 of 1.63 billion, India will thus have a per capita income of over $53,000 - in the range of today's wealthiest countries like Switzerland and Norway. Sounds too good to be true? Of course it is. As Japan foreign debt is growing up and country's debt is projected to be 239% of the size of its economy by the end of 2012, according to the IMF. No other country is even close so India takes over Japan rank. India has the worlds second largest labour force, with 467 million people. In terms of output, the agricultural sector accounts for 28% of GDP; the service and industrial sectors make up 54% and 18% respectively. Major agricultural products include rice, wheat, oilseed, cotton, jute, tea, sugarcane, potatoes. Major industries include textiles, telecommunications, chemicals, food processing, steel, transport equipment, cement, mining, petroleum, machinery and software. Indias external trade has reached a relatively moderate share of 24% of GDP in 2006, up from 6% in 1985. In 2008, Indias share of world trade was about 1.68%; in 2009, it was the worlds fifteenth largest importer and eighteenth largest exporter. Major exports include petroleum products, textile goods, gems and jewelry, software, engineering goods, chemicals, and leather manufactures. Major imports include crude oil, machinery, gems, fertilizer, and chemicals. In India, inflation remains a concern with the wholesale index price accelerating in April to 7.2% (seasonally-adjusted) on a year earlier reversing previous falls. Industrial output and exports have also registered falls and there are increasing fears about a slowdown in consumer demand as well as the impact of the euro zone crisis. These trends combined to produce seasonallyadjusted real GDP growth of 1.3% in the first quarter of 2012 over the previous quarter. India being democratic will continue on its path to development and In view of its continuing robust growth, India is expected to be the world's largest economy by 2050, surpassing China and the United States, a City report said. India will be inducted into the Security Council as a permanent member along with Brazil. Asia will become bi-polar with India and China leading two camps, one based on democracy with the other bolstering communist and autocratic rule. China will continue to grow in the beginning of the 21st century. China economic grow rate between 1989-1999 was 9.9 and between 1992-2009 was 10.3 the highest economic grow and must relax its grip on industry and move
12

towards a Control -market economy, and World Bank has said in a report that forecast the country would become the world's largest economy before 2030. Chinas GDP for 2011 was $Bln.10,085 the second world largest economy after USA. The trade weighted tariff rate is 4.2% with layers of non-tariff barriers adding to the cost of trade. The investmentregim is non-transparent and inefficient. The state control of the financial system as its primery means the rest of economy. The government owns all large financial institution .Which lend according to state priorities and directives and large state enterprise with inflation rate as 3.3%. China relies very little to foreign borrowing and its growth id financial from resources extracted from its own population, not from fickle foreigners free to flee, as happened in South-East Asia and happening again in Euro zone !!.China s saving rate ,at 51% of GDP, is even higher than its investment rate this opportunity allows china access to jump to capital per head and if china can access to $40,000 per head their economy size will be equal $Bln.54 that would be 3.7 times more that US size!! But according to official (Nominal) GDP statistics converted at current exchange rates, in all indirect indicators of economic size, the Chinese economy is the second largest in the world, for example, the biggest consumer of coal, steel, and many other commodities and the second biggest consumer of oil (after America). Of course, there are potential dangers for China which could at least temporarily derail its strong growth. The fast transition of the country could potentially create great social unrest. The Chinese banking system looks very fragile as it is heavily burdened by bad loans. Moreover, China is far too dependent on exports to America. China's exports to America last year were some 12% of GDP and the bilateral trade surplus was 10% of GDP. This makes China very vulnerable to an economic downturn in America. First because of its direct negative effect on exports and second because China is likely to be blamed for the crisis which could create a protectionist backlash which will severely damage the Chinese economy. This means that while the short-term outlook for the Chinese economy is strong, it risks heavy damages from any economic crisis in America, something which in turn poses risks for social unrest and for the fragile banking system. China policy maker are very intelligent that could supervisory and marker controlled to avoid financial criss same USA or Europe. The story for some of the other major emerging economies, like Brazil, India and Russia, have many similarities with that of China as they have also started to liberalize their economies, something which has helped boost their growth rates. Their potential may not be as great as that of China because their cultures are not as inclined towards thrift and entrepreneurship as the Chinese culture and because in the case of Brazil and Russia their populations are much smaller and in the case of Russia shrinking. India is also still plagued by the unofficial caste system which makes it more difficult to spread the success to the entire population than in China. The Russian and Brazilian economies are also to a
13

dangerously high extent dependent on oil and agriculture respectively. Even so, they and many other emerging economies will likely increase in importance. We propose in compare world economy, should be show GDP and GDP per capital to find which economic is stronger so table (6) compare these range. Note that inspite that GDP per head some countries same Iran and Persian Golf Countries are higher than China and India but their GDP are related to export Oil and Gas not Industry product .

14

Country USA Europe World Canada Germany Taiwan UK France

Table (8)- Comparison GDP & GDP per Head 2011 GDP GDP at GDP Per Head PPP Per Head GDP at Country USD 47,200 32,700 10,886 38,989 36,033 35,227 34,920 34,077 $Bln-USD 14,657 Japan 14,820 S.Korea 74,264 Russian 1,330 Mexico 2,940 Brazil 821 China 2,172 India 2,145 Iran USD 33,805 29,836 15,837 14,430 11,239 7,650 3,339 10,866 $Bln-USD

PPP

4,309 1,459 2,222 1,567 2,172 10,085 4,060 818

Source: CIA Fact Book 2012

Review of historical GDP per capital after Second World War in 1954 (table 9) and compare with table (8) shows how Courtiers replaces with others .
Table (9) GDP per Capital in 1954
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Country USA Swiss New Zealand Venezuela Australia Canada Sweden Danish Netherlands Mexico France Argentina GPC-$US 9,573 8,939 8,495 7,424 7,218 7,047 6,738 6,683 5,850 5,348 5,221 4,987 Rank 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Country Norway Germany Finland Italy Russia Spain Mexico Japan Turkey S. Korea China India GPC-$ US 4,969 4,281 4,131 3,425 3,106 2,397 2,085 1,873 1,299 876 614 597

15

Table (10) shows the progressive main player in economic zone from 1990 to 2017 that all readers find how emerging economic step by step grows this power.
Table (10) - Comparison Top 16 Largest Economy 1980-2017($Bln-USD) % Average Country 2017 2015 2012 2010 2005 2000 1990 1980 Grow 37 year 19,704 17,788 15,609 14,526 12,622 9,951 5,800 2,788 706 USA 5324 52024 4588 4380 3889 3255 2370 996 534 Japan 3655 3440 3158 2944 2492 2144 1446 762 479 Germany 2667 2476 2257 2134 1860 1533 1030 536 497 France 2838 2594 2308 2199 1993 1487 933 472 601 UK 2062 1943 1834 1800 1641 1404 976 509 405 Italy 1625 1514 1405 1374 1184 900 551 272 597 Spain 1753 1617 1448 1334 1132 888 542 272 644 Canada 5364 3014 1943 987 2060 20336 16670 12,387 10128 China 3120 2825 2393 2186 1584 1234 786 445 701 Brazil 7574 6276 4824 4069 2431 1571 744 286 2646 India 3295 2950 2510 2237 1696 1120 0 0 2941 Russian 2242 2028 1743 1564 1297 1065 612 336 667 Mexico 1829 1542 1208 1034 705 501 276 107 17093 Indonesia 1476 1303 1112 969 747 513 291 116 12724 Turkey 1918 1629 1468 1096 775 335 87 24689 2148 S. Korea
Source: IMF

We think the GDP based in PPP isn't a reasonable economic index to compare different economy because in metropolis countries official and PPP are similar but in emerging countries same China, India, Brazil and Mexico these scale are very different. The environmental, social and political challenges of transformation have largely been ignored in the model. One does however hope that the necessary precursors like education, good governance and health care system which countries like Brazil and Russia require to achieve the level of economic as described in this scenario, will also help these countries overcome and work with the inevitable challenges that economic growth will bring. Price Waterhouse Coopers LLP explored this in a report, entitled The World in 2050: Beyond the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China): a broader look at the emerging market growth prospects. This interesting analysis uses current data to examine the 17 largest economies and the 13 emerging economies and sets projections for 2050. It supplants the current G7 (US, Japan, Italy, UK, France, Canada, Germany) with a group of emerging country E7 (which includes China, India, Brazil, Mexico, Russia, and Turkey) projecting that the emerging economies will overtake them by 2050 by 50 percent. According to this report, China is seen to
16

surpass the US by 2025, while India is seen to reach this level of growth by 2050. As mentioned in a recent post, China is already moving away from lowend manufacturing which is going offshore to places like Vietnam, Bangladesh and the Philippines, which interestingly form part of the top ten next waves of emerging nations. PWC projects that Vietnam will grow to 70 percent of the UK economy by 2050. China surpassed the US last year to become the second largest exporter in the world behind Germany. PWC projects that by 2050 Brazils economy could be larger than Japans, and the Turkish economy be as large as Italys economy. Part of the reason put forward is the opportunity for increased internal investment and growth in wealth leading to growth in domestic consumption. It is very wonder that PWC projected world in 2050 in 2007 but couldnt estimated about credit crisis and financial crisis that was happened next 6 months after they reported.!! According to data statics of international sources as IMF, World Bank Wikipedia arranged special table as follow to the top historical economy power till 2011 and projection for 2017 .Table (11) shows after second world war US has been world top spot economy and Soviet Union before collapse was been second superpower till 1980 .

17

Table (11) Historical ranking 20 top World Economic 1970-2015 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1970 USA Soviet Union Germany Japan France UK Italy China Canada India Australia Spain Mexico Brazil Sweden Netherlands Argentina Poland Belgium Turkey 1975 USA Soviet Union Japan Germany France UK Italy Canada China Brazil Spain Australia India Mexico Netherlands Sweden Belgium Switzerland Turkey Argentina 1980 USA Japan Soviet Union Germany France UK Italy Canada China Spain Mexico Brazil India Netherlands Saudi Arabia Australia Sweden Belgium Argentina Switzerland 1985 USA Japan Soviet Union Germany France UK Italy Canada China India Brazil Mexico Australia Spain Netherlands Iran Sweden Saudi Arabia Switzerland S. Korea 1990 USA Japan Germany France Italy UK Soviet Union Canada Spain Brazil China Australia India Netherlands Mexico S. Korea Sweden Switzerland Belgium Turkey 1995 USA Japan Germany France UK Italy Brazil China Spain Canada S. Korea Netherlands Australia Russia India Switzerland Mexico Belgium Taiwan Argentina 2000 USA Japan Germany UK France China Italy Canada Brazil Mexico Spain S. Korea India Australia Netherlands Taiwan Argentina Turkey Russia Switzerland 2005 USA Japan Germany UK China France Italy Canada Spain Brazil Mexico S. Korea India Russia Australia Netherlands Turkey Belgium Switzerland Sweden 2010 USA China Japan Germany France UK Brazil Italy India Canada Russia Spain Australia Mexico S. Korea Netherlands Turkey Indonesia Switzerland Belgium 2015 USA China Japan Germany France Brazil UK Russia India Italy Canada Australia Spain S. Korea Mexico Indonesia Turkey Netherlands Saudi Arabia Switzerland

18

We found GDP contribution of top 20 economies 2011 that shows majority of GDP related to US and EU and Japan coming from services in compare with China that come from %46 and also Russia %36.9 from industry!!
Table (12) Comparison Top 20 Largest GDP contributions 2011 Country Services Industry Agriculture USA China Japan India Germany UK Russia France Brazil Italy Mexico Indonesia Spain Canada Turkey S. Korea Australia S. Africa Taiwan 79.60% 43.10% 71.60% 56.40% 70.60% 77.80% 58.60% 79.40% 67% 73.40% 62.00% 38.10% 71.00% 71.00% 62.60% 58.20% 71.40% 65.90% 66.90% 19.20% 46.80% 27.30% 25.40% 28.60% 21.40% 36.90% 18.80% 27.50% 24.70% 34.20% 47.20% 25.80% 27.10% 28.10% 39.20% 24.60% 31.60% 32.00% 1.20% 10% 1.20% 17.20% 0.08% 0.07% 4.50% 1.8% 5.50% 2% 3.80% 14.70% 3.20% 1.90% 9.30% 2.60% 4.00% 2.50% 1.30%

Source: CIA FACTBOOK 2012

19

World Foreign Debt or Asiel ahead of developed countries : World foreign debt crisis that begin from 1995 is ashiel ahead of developed country in compare with emerging countries that allows China be main owner of International market!
Table (13)- Comparison total Debt 2011 Country USA EU UK Germany France Japan Ireland Netherland Italy Spain Luxembourg Belgium Swiss Australia Canada Sweden Norway China Danish Greece Portugal Russian Finland S. Korea Brazil India Turkey Mexico % government Debt to GDP 58.5 61 76.5 78.8 83.5 225 123 64.5 118 63.4 19.2 98.6 38.2 70.4 84 40.8 47.7 43.5 46.6 144 83.5 138 45.5 20.3 60.8 55.9 48.1 41.5 % Foreign Debt to GDP 99 85 360 142 182 45 1,165 344 108 154 3,443 266 229 95 64 187 141 5 180 174 217 33 155 37 15 21 36 20 Foreign Debt per head 47,568 27,862 143,009 57,755 74,619 19,148 519,070 226,503 36,841 47,069 3,696,467 113,603 154,063 53,596 29,625 91,487 131,220 396 101,084 47,636 46,795 3,421 68,960 7,567 1,608 237 3,794 1,956 Total Foreign Debt $Bln-USD 15,570 13,720 8,989 4,713 4,696 2,441 2,378 2,344 2,223 2,166 1,892 1,241 1,200 1,169 1,009 853 643 697 559 532 497 480 370 370 310 267 270 212

20

Table (14) -Owner of US Government Bond 2011 2012 Country 28.20% 23% China 19% 21.40% Japan 5.20% 5.10% Oil Exporter 3.80% 4.50% Central Caribbean Banks 43.80% 46.50% Other Creditors 4,666 5,048 Total foreign Debt -$Bln

21

Table (15)- Foreign holdings of U.S. securities, by country and type of security, for the major investing countries into the U.S., as of June 30, 2011-$BlnUSD- Source Treasury 2012
Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 Country China (Mainland)1 Japan United Kingdom Cayman Islands Luxembourg Canada Switzerland Middle East Oil Exporters2 Belgium Ireland Hong Kong Bermuda Netherlands France Germany Taiwan Brazil Singapore Norway Australia Russia Korea, South Sweden British Virgin Islands Mexico Total 1,727 1,587 982 928 817 560 488 446 443 407 292 275 260 249 238 232 221 212 181 161 154 133 108 107 97 Equities 159 304 442 433 291 416 227 214 25 105 44 62 165 141 81 16 2 107 124 106 * 20 65 61 25 ABC-Long term Debt 220 165 53 131 50 10 24 13 36 47 101 49 22 16 38 39 * 3 12 5 * 42 1 4 1 Other-Long term Debt 1,343 1,052 471 284 407 121 222 137 376 139 82 136 67 78 112 175 214 95 44 44 138 66 40 25 68 Short term debt 5 67 16 80 69 13 16 82 6 115 66 28 5 14 7 3 5 7 1 7 16 5 2 17 3 1 225 881

138 2 1,074 270 Total 12,520 3,906 1- Excludes Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, which are reported separately. 2- Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates

Country unknown Rest of World

* 59 1,141

136 520 6,593

22

World Foreign Exchange Reserve : It is certainly economic situation of the countries those have more much foreign exchange reserve is more stable than other countries in financial crisis .Table (16) explain the china is the most rich country with foreign exchange reserve that if adding Hong Kong to China reserve the total reserve of China will be more than $ Bln.USD 3,531 that is more than total foreign exchange of G-7 plus USA and Japan !!
Table (16) Countries with more than $ Bln.USD Foreign Exchange Reserve 2011 Rank Country $Bln.USD Rank Country $Bln.USD 1 China 3,240 11 Algeria 186 2 Japan 1,270 12 Italy 173 3 Saudi Arabia 592 13 Thailand 172 4 Russia 514 14 France 171 5 Taiwan 391 15 Mexico 159 6 Swiss 383 16 USA 150 7 Hong Kong 291 17 UK 128 18 Iran 110 8 India 286 19 Indonesia 9 Germany 293 106 10 Singapore 237 20 Poland 101
Source: Wikipedia

How is the world weight of US, Europe and China US were the leader of world economy after second world war and Europe has for a long term lagged behind US and most other countries in grow . We compare main economic indicator of US, Europe Union and China to find what will happen in future!

23

Table (17)- Comparison important Indicator Economic 2011 Indicator USA China European Union Area- Sq.Km 9,372,610 9,560,900 2,573,704 Population-M 308 1,336 318 GDP-$Bln-US 14,094 5,878 14.82 Average GDP grow 2005-2009 0.01 0.11 0.8 Energy consumer2009 2,339 1,955 1,226 Average inflation Rate 2005-2009 2.2 5.4 1.6 Inflation rate %-2010 1.6 3.3 1.9 Life expectancy 78.37 74 79.5 GDP per head-$USD 47,200 7,500 30,080 %Unemployment 9.3 6.5 9.4 Export ( Goods& Services $Bln-USD 14,660 7,058 17,210 Balance Account -$ Bln-USD (836) 286 57 current account Balance-$Bln-USD (706) 426 (65) Overall Balance$ Bln-USD 52 419 19 Health Spending to GDP% 16.2 4.6 10.7 No. Household M 118.5 389 131 Education Spending to GDP% 5.5 2.1 4.9 Computer per 100 population 83 25 66
By: Dayarayan;Source: Pocket World in Figures 2012 & CIA Fact Book 2012

Why the US Will Still is the Only Superpower in 2030 ?! A point that many bring up is that empires have always risen and fallen throughout history. This is partly true, but note that the Roman Empire lasted for over 1000 years after its peak. Also note that the British Empire never actually collapsed since Britain is still one of the top seven countries in the world today, and the English language is the most widely spoken in the world. Britain was merely surpassed by its descendant, with whom it shares a symbiotic relationship. The US can expect the same if it is finally surpassed, at some point much later than 2030 and probably not before the Technological Singularity, which would make the debate moot. That writing this article is even worthwhile is a tribute to how far China has come and how much it might achieve, but nonetheless, there is no other country that will be a superpower on par with the US by 2030. This is one of the safest predictions The Futurist can make. (Source: ttp://futurist.typepad.com/my_weblog/2006/05/why_the_us_will.html) We think all economists and projection forget a very important case to their projection .It is merging and united two Korean that we believe before 2020 it will be certainly and this matter will take over Korea economic to be member of top 10 largest economy .It will be certainly.
24

Golden man Sache Bank as one of the most famous financial entity has projected world in future that you can see their projection in below table.
Table(18)- Nominal Gross Domestic Product 2015-2050 (In 2006 US$ millions) Country 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 USA 16,194 17,978 20,087 22,817 26,097 29,823 33,904 China 8,133 12,630 18,437 25,610 34,348 45,022 57,310 Japan 4,861 5,224 5,570 5,814 5,886 6,042 6,300 Germany 3,326 3,519 3,631 3,761 4,048 4,388 4,714 UK 2,835 3,101 3,333 3,595 3,937 4,344 4,744 France 2,577 2,815 3,055 3,306 3,567 3,892 4,227 Italy 2,072 2,224 2,326 2,391 2,444 2,559 2,737 Canada 1,950 2,190 2,376 2,589 2,700 2,910 3,150 Russia 1,900 2,554 3,341 4,265 5,265 6,320 7,420 India 1,900 2,848 4,316 6,885 11,514 16,510 25,278 Brazil 1,720 2,194 2,831 3,720 4,963 6,631 8,740 Mexico 1,327 1,742 2,303 3,068 4,102 5,471 7,204 S. Korea 1,305 1,508 1,861 2,241 2,644 3,089 3,562 Turkey 1,150 1,350 1,665 2,150 2,550 3,075 3,650 Indonesia 562 752 1,033 1,479 2,192 3,286 4,846 Iran 415 544 716 953 1,273 1,673 2,133 Nigeria 218 306 445 680 1,083 1,765 2,870 Philippines 215 289 400 582 882 1,353 2,040 Pakistan 206 268 359 497 709 1,026 1,472 Egypt 171 229 318 467 718 1,124 1,728 Vietnam 157 273 458 745 1,169 1,750 2,500 Bangladesh 110 150 210 304 451 676 1,001

Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22

2050 38,514 70,710 6,677 5,024 5,133 4,592 2,950 3,375 8,580 37,668 11,366 9,340 4,083 4,200 7,010 2,663 4,640 3,010 2,085 2,602 3,375 1,466

Source: Above table estimated have been made in the year 2006 by the Goldman Sachs Bank.

25

Gross Demotic Product By Nominal scale or by PPP ?

As our previous explanation that GDP by PPP is not a reasonable index to compare world economy so we arrange table (19) to find and compare GDP by nominal ( Real power) and PPP ( Parity Power).According to this table the only country that is real competitor with US is China and India, Brazil and Russian cant be real player in world economic at present !
Table (19)- Comparison GDP based on Official and PPP
Country GDP GDP USA China India Japan Germany France UK Russia Italy Canada Brazil Mexico Korea Indonesia Spain Turkey Iran EU 1990 Nominal PPP 5,800 5,800 390 910 323 744 3104 2370 1547 1447 1247 1031 1018 933 76 913 1142 976 582 542 465 786 288 612 270 336 114 277 521 551 202 291 85 247 7049 6707 1995 Nominal PPP 7,414 7,414 728 1832 365 1073 5334 2872 2535 1799 1571 1233 1157 1143 313 952 1133 1175 590 667 770 1028 335 752 531 554 202 447 597 667 227 385 91 330 9188 8388 2000 Nominal PPP 9,951 9,951 1198 3014 476 1572 4731 3255 1892 2144 1232 1534 1480 1487 259 1121 1107 1404 725 889 644 1234 672 1065 533 775 165 501 582 900 266 513 96 438 8504 10539 2005 Nominal PPP 12,623 12,623 2257 5364 809 2431 4571 3890 2771 2492 2138 1860 2283 1933 763 1697 1789 1642 1134 1132 882 1585 848 1297 845 1097 286 705 1132 1184 482 747 203 685 13773 13078 2010 Nominal PPP 14,526 14,526 5930 10128 1597 4070 5488 4380 3286 3944 2563 2135 2263 2199 1487 2237 2060 1800 1577 1334 2143 2187 1035 1565 1015 1468 708 1035 1395 1374 735 969 419 951 16259 15248 2012 Nominal PPP 15,609 15,609 7991 12387 1779 4825 5981 4589 3479 3158 2712 2257 2453 2308 2022 2511 2067 1835 1805 1443 2450 2394 1207 1743 1163 1630 928 1208 1397 1405 817 1112 496 1006 17070 16025 2015 Nominal PPP 17,783 17,783 10581 16670 2384 6276 6372 5024 3741 3440 2984 2476 2850 2594 2658 2950 2158 1944 2001 1618 2872 2826 1416 2028 1430 1918 1394 1542 1501 1514 1044 1303 582 1106 18782 17652 2017 Nominal PPP 19,704 19,704 12713 20336 2906 7574 6695 5324 3893 3655 3198 2668 3167 2838 3105 3295 2248 2062 2141 1753 3268 3171 1567 2242 1645 2148 1812 1829 1590 1626 1258 1477 668 1192 20095 19065

By: Dayarayan;-Source- World Economic Outlook April 2012

26

Top Largest Nominal Economy in 2011 Table (20) shows which economy were largest in 2011 by different data statics as IMF and World Bank.
Table (20)- Top 20 Largest Nominal GDP 2011 Country IMF World Bank CIA Fact Book World 69,659 63,123 70,160 European Union 17,577 16,122 17,720 USA 15,094 14,586 15,060 China 7,298 5,926 6,989 Japan 5,869 5,458 5,855 Germany 3,577 3,280 3,629 France 2,776 2,560 2,808 Brazil 2,492 2,087 2,518 UK 2,417 2,261 2,481 Italy 2,198 2,060 2,246 Russia 1,850 1,480 1,791 Canada 1,736 1,577 1,759 India 1,676 1,727 1,843 Spain 1,493 1,407 1,537 Australia 1,488 1,131 1,507 Mexico 1,154 1,035 1,185 Korea 1,116 1,014 1,164 Indonesia 845 706 834 Netherland 840 779 858 Turkey 778 734 763 Swiss 636 527 666 Saudi 577 434 560

27

Table (21)- Top Largest Economy 1980-2015 Year 2015 (IMF Forecast) 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1st USA 17,784 USA 14,527 USA 12,609 USA 10,011 USA 7,376 USA 5,753 USA 4,193 USA 2,772 2nd China 16,670 China 10,128 China 5,364 Japan 3,252 Japan 2,835 Japan 2,340 Japan 1,561 Japan 980 3rd India 6,276 Japan 4,380 Japan 3,873 China 2,981 China 1,812 Germany 1,455 W. Germany 1,050 W. Germany 763 4th Japan 5,024 India 4,070 Germany 2,549 Germany 2,137 Germany 1,810 Russia 1,183 France 737 France 531 5th Germany 3,440 Germany 2,944 India 2,476 India 1,579 France 1,216 France 1,018 Italy 717 Italy 514 6th Russia 2,950 Russia 2,237 UK 1,952 France 1,546 UK 1,175 Italy 977 UK 680 UK 475 7th Brazil 2,826 UK 2,199 France 1,869 UK 1,524 Italy 1,156 UK 939 Brazil 585 Brazil 424 8th UK 2,594 Brazil 2,187 Russia 1,697 Italy 1,422 India 1,086 China 908 China 530 Mexico 297 9th France 2,476 France 2,135 Italy 1,642 Brazil 1,211 Brazil 1,015 Brazil 768 India 482 India 291 10th Mexico 2,029 Italy 1,801 Brazil 1,584 Russia 1,047 Russia 888 India 751 Mexico 419 Spain 272

28

Table (22)- Largest Economy Projection by IMF 2010-2030

Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Country USA China Japan Germany France UK Italy Brazil Canada Russia 2010-$1000Bln 14.6 5.9 3.6 3.3 2.6 2.3 2.4 2 1.6 1.5 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Country China USA India Japan Brazil Germany France Russia UK Indonesia 2020-$1000Bln 24.6 23.3 9.6 6 5.1 5 3.9 3.5 3.4 3.2 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Country China USA India Brazil Indonesia Japan Germany Mexico France UK 2030-$1000Bln 73.5 38.2 30.3 12.2 9.3 8.4 8.2 6.6 6.4 5.6

Source: IMF Standard chartered Research

29

Which Countries spent more on Health Expenditures to GDP One of the other indicator has forgoten to economics report is Health Expenditures to GDP that shows which countries repect to manpower more and in spite that manpower( Human resource) is the most important resources in world economic competitore so we will find it is a long distance between emerging economic and developed ceonomic and health care related to countries those capital per head is bigger than others, expend health care more than others.
Table (23) -Health Care indicators at Top 18 Economy2011
Country %GDP PCTE (*)-$BlnUSD PCTEPPP(**) $Bln-USD 7,410 4,798 4,629 4,380 3,076 3,328 1,424 3,395 743 2,711 485 3,321 571 485 525 475 169 45 55

USA 16.2 7,410 France 11.7 3,934 Germany 11.4 4,129 Canada 10.5 4,198 Spain 9.7 3,152 Italy 9.5 3,027 Argentina 9.5 1,387 UK 9.4 3,285 Brazil 9 943 Australia 8.5 3,382 South Africa 8.5 862 Japan 8.3 2,713 Turkey 6.7 965 S. Korea 8.5 862 Mexico 6.5 862 Russia 5.4 1,038 China 4.6 308 India 4.2 132 Indonesia 24 99 * Per Capital total expenditures on health average exchange rate ($US) ** Per Capital total expenditures on health at Purchase Power Parity(PPP)

30

Table(24)- Top Languages by percentage OG GWP

Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Language English Japanese Simplified Chinese German Spanish French Italian Russian Portuguese Arabic Dutch Korean Turkish Traditional Chinese Polish GDP (in $US Billions) $21,276 $4,911 $4,509 $4,393 $4,170 $3,951 $2,481 $2,245 $1,915 $1,903 $1,386 $929 $730 $607 $528 % of GWP 34.90% 8.10% 7.40% 7.20% 6.80% 6.50% 4.10% 3.70% 3.10% 3.10% 2.30% 1.50% 1.20% 1.00% 0.90% Cumulative % of GWP 34.90% 43.00% 50.40% 57.60% 64.50% 71.00% 75.00% 78.70% 81.90% 85.00% 87.30% 88.80% 90.00% 91.00% 91.80%

Source: www.globalization-group.com/edge/2010/03/top-languages-by-gdp

Democrassy Ranking According to report publishing bu world audit organization the democrassy ranking includes democrassy, press freedom and corruption grow up in 2011 and unfortunitly some of top world economy are in the top rank of corrupt.Table (25) shows their situation ranking
Country US China Japan India Germany France Italy UK Brazil Russia Canada Spain Mexico S. Korea Turkey Indonesia Table (25) World Top economy democrassy ranking 2011 Democracy Press Freedom Corruption Total 13 10 18 13 121 139 56 121 29 19 11 29 49 46 75 49 10 10 11 10 16 24 19 16 35 44 51 35 13 16 13 13 50 56 54 50 133 129 113 133 8 16 10 8 21 24 23 21 69 99 77 69 33 40 31 33 55 75 44 55 64 71 77 64

Source: world audit organization

31

According to above research and explanation and all tables ,we propose for projection that who will be top Largest economy and compare world economy should comply several different indicators as GDP nominal, education level, annual innovation & patients, Military power, Area, Population, access to water clean, natural resources that we arrange in below table.

32

Total 1000

Population 200

Table (26)- Score for Elements & factors to be super power Health care Education Area Military Water access Natural resources 100 100 100 150 100 250

We, with attention table number (26) and comply necessary factors for super power ,project that the only countries to have capacity, ability, infrastructure to be economy super power are USA, China and Russia and other emerging or developed countries cant not to be super power inspite that they are large economy !!Table (27) shows Top 15 Military Power in 2012
Table (27) - Top 15 Military Power 2012 Rank Country 1 USA 2 Russia 3 China 4 India 5 UK 6 Turkey 7 S. Korae 8 France 9 Japan 10 Israel 11 Brazil 12 Iran 13 Germany 14 Taiwan 15 Pakistan
Source: www.globalfirepower.com

33

Knowledge Economy Index (KEI) 2012 Rankings The World Banks Knowledge Assessment Methodology (KAM:www.worldbank.org/kam) is an online interactive tool that produces the Knowledge Economy Index (KEI) an aggregate index representing a countrys or regions overall preparedness to compete in the Knowledge Economy (KE). The KEI is based on a simple average of four sub-indexes, which represent the four pillars of the knowledge economy: Economic Incentive and Institutional Regime (EIR) Innovation and Technological Adoption Education and Training Information and Communications Technologies (ICT) Infrastructure The EIR comprises incentives that promote the efficient use of existing and new knowledge and the flourishing of entrepreneurship. An efficient innovation system made up of firms, research centers, universities, think tanks, consultants, and other organizations can tap into the growing stock of global knowledge, adapt it to local needs, and create new technological solutions. An educated and appropriately trained population is capable of creating, sharing, and using knowledge. A modern and accessible ICT infrastructure serves to facilitate the effective communication, dissemination, and processing of information. This index shows which countries( 145 countries survey) are high teck and knowledge base and we understand it is very different between developed countries specially European countries in compare with emerging economy (except South Korea) .
Table (28 )-Top Largest economy in knowledge economy index 2012
Country Canada Germany USA UK Spain Japan France S. Korea Italy Russian Brazil Turkey Mexico Indonesia India Source: World bank Rank 7 8 12 14 21 22 24 29 30 55 60 69 72 108 110 Knowledge Economy index 8.92 8.9 8.77 8.76 8.35 8.28 8.21 7.97 7.89 5.78 5.58 5.16 5.07 3.11 3.06

34

In the other hand according to brandirectory.com annual report 2012 ,top 16 brands as all World Top 20 Brands are belongs to US, and other remind are belong to UK( 2 brand ) ,Japan (2 Brand) ,South Korea ( one brand ) and Netherland (one Brand) and emerging economy and other all countries has not any world or global brand in first 20 ranks.
Table (29) Global Top 20 Brands Rank & Brand Value 2011-2012 2012
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20

2011
8 1 2 4 3 18 7 16 5 32 10 12 11 13 14 9 6 17 30 27

Name
Apple Google Microsoft IBM Wal-Mart Samsung GE Coca-Cola Vodafone Amazon.com AT&T Verizon HSBC NTT Group Toyota Wells Fargo Bank of America McDonald's Shell Intel

Country
US US US US US Korea US US UK US US US UK Japan Japan US US US Netherland US

$ M-USD 2012
70605 47463 45812 39135 38320 38197 33214 31082 30044 28665 28379 27616 27597 26324 24461 23229 22910 22230 22021 21908

$M-USD 2011
29543 44294 42805 36157 362203 21511 30504 25807 30674 17780 28884 27293 27632 26927 26152 28944 30619 21842 18605 19708

World Economic Trends 2011-2060 According to all elements and factors be effected to economy we projected table (30) for trends to 2060.

35

Table (30) Top 15 Largest Economy $Bln.USD 2015-2060 Projection by Dayarayan

Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 Country China USA India Brazil Russian Germany Japan Mexico S. Korea Indonesia Turkey France UK Italy Canada 2060 88,068 59,325 45,245 20,864 15,033 12,624 11,287 11,203 10,742 9567 7,512 5,800 5,334 3,757 3,756 2055 77,840 55,069 40,780 16,348 12,064 10,890 10,223 8,990 8,620 8,873 6,028 5,127 4,761 3,387 3,386 2050 65,540 48,437 34,170 12,871 9,681 9,348 9,260 7,248 6,951 6,953 4,861 4,554 4,271 3,083 3,052 2045 2040 2035 2030 53,354 43,853 36,044 29,626 40,783 35,180 30,943 26,692 27,422 22,005 16,917 13,575 10,182 8,132 6,526 5,114 7,957 7,360 6,050 4,973 8,025 6,923 5,972 5,388 8,823 8,387 7,597 7,019 5,901 4,827 3,968 3,277 5,632 4,585 3,751 3,083 5,448 4,269 3,361 2,646 3,920 3,176 2,586 2,116 4,065 3,646 3,287 2,978 3,839 3,461 3,135 2,868 2,847 2,643 2,430 2,266 2,751 2,480 2,235 2,025 2025 2020 2015 23,774 18,628 14,253 22,749 19,434 16,928 10,637 8,108 5,781 4,065 3,247 2,669 4,088 3,360 2,763 4,928 4,508 3,214 6,389 5,873 4,570 2,720 2,268 1,901 2,559 2,134 1,797 2,103 1,672 1,336 1,740 1,430 1,176 2,711 2,480 2,303 2,650 2,484 2,341 2,125 2,002 1,895 1,821 1,650 1,497 2011 Ave. Grow Rate 11,290 6-8% 15,040 2.5-3.5% 4,463 6-8% 2282 4-5% 2,380 3.8-4.5% 3,085 1.3-2.1% 4,389 1.2-2% 1,657 3.5-4.5% 1,549 3.5-4.5% 1,121 4.5-5% 1,025 3.5-4.5% 2,214 1-2.5% 2,250 1-2.3% 1,822 1-2.1% 1,389 1.9-2.1%

36

Table (31)-Top New Economic Zones projection $ Bln.US -By Dayarayan

Year 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 BRIC 11,157 25,736 33,343 53,288 81,350 122,262 NAFTA 17,138 20,326 23,352 31,994 42,497 58,737 European Union 16,259 32,753 18,782 38,431 21,387 49,236 26,455 62,720 33,210 92,843 41,484 101,884 169,120 102,747 51,570 2060 BRIC = Brazil/Russia/India/China and NAFTA -NAFTA=USA/Canada/Mexico G-7= USA,UK,France, Germany, Italy, Canada ,Japan We arranged special comparison table from world forecaster about world economy 2050 as table (28) to can compare correctly all top 10 largest GDP G-7 22,650

Table (32) Comparison different forecasted world Economy in 2050

Forecaster Goldman Sachs 2006 Goldman Sachs 2011 HSBC PWC CitiGroup 2011 Carnegie Wealth Report Dayarayan 1st China 44,453 China 70,717 China 24,617 China 51,180 China 205,321 China 46,265 India 85,970 China 65,540 2nd USA 35,165 USA 38,521 USA 22,270 USA 37,876 India 180,049 USA 38,646 China 80,020 USA 48,437 3rd India 27,803 India 37,667 India 8,165 India 31,313 USA 83,805 India 15,384 USA 39,070 India 34,170 4th Japan 6,673 Brazil 11,366 Japan 6,429 Brazil 9,235 Indonesia 45,910 Japan 6,216 Indonesia 13,930 Brazil 12,871 5th Brazil 6,074 Mexico 9,340 UK 3,576 Japan 7,664 Nigeria 42,437 Brazil 6,020 Brazil 11,580 Russia 9,681 6th Russia 5,870 Russia 8,580 Germany 3,714 Russia 6,112 Brazil 33,199 Mexico 5,709 Nigeria 9,510 Germany 9,348 7th UK 3,782 UK 5,133 Brazil 2,960 Mexico 5,800 Russia 19,697 UK 4,997 Russia 7,770 Japan 9,260 8th Germany 3,603 Germany 5,024 Mexico 2,810 Germany 5,707 Japan 16,394 Germany 4,537 Mexico 6,570 Mexico 7,248 9th France 3,147 France 4,592 France 2,750 UK 5,628 Philippines 14,738 France 4,528 Japan 6,480 Indonesia 6,953 10th Italy 2,061 S. Korea 4,083 Italy 2,194 Indonesia 5,358 UK 13,846 Turkey 3,536 Egypt 6,020 S. Korea 6,951

37

Global changing ? According to our research and attention table (33) the future global changing are as below table .
Year 2011 2011 2012 2012 2015 2020 2025 2025 2025 2030 2030 2030 2030 2035 2035 2035 2050 Table (33) Future Global Economy Changing GDP Ranking ( Base PPP) Estimated Changing in World Economic China the second world economic power Indonesia take over Turkey India take over Japan and become be the third world Economy Brazil take over UK Brazil will take over France S. Korea will take over France, Uk, Italy China will take over US and will be top super power Mexico will take over France, UK France Will Take Over UK Turkey will take over Canada Brazil will take over Russia S. Korae will take over Indonesia Indonesia will take over Canada ,Italy Indonesia will take over France, UK Russia will take over Germany Brazil will take over Germany Germany will take over Japan

38

Conclusion and finding:

1-The world GDP from $Bln.371 (1700), $Bln.5,331 (1950) ,$Bln.16,022(1973) and $ Bln. 70177 (2011) will be jump to 350,000 in 2060 2- China economy will be eight times more than 2011in 2060 and also India economy size in 2060 will grow seven times more than 2011. 2- Bric Group ( Brazil, Russia, India, China) will be largest economic group from $ Bln.11,157 (2011) to $Bln.169,120 3-The largest GDP $Bln.15,040 ( USA) in 2011 will jump to $ Bln. 88,066 (China) in 2060 4- The largest GDP per capital was $ USD 9,757 (USA) in 1954 and will jump to $ 125,000 (USA) with 450,000000 population in 2060. 5-Larest world output will be related to emerging economy and new economy graphic BRIC, BRICSAM (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa and Mexico), SICJ( S. Korea, Indonesia, China, Japan) 6- GDP BRIC group will grow from $ Bln.11,157 (2010) to $ Bln.33,347 (2020), $Bln.53,2888 (2030), $Bln.122,262 (2050) and $ Bln.169,210 (2060) that will be 2.4 times more than world GDP in 2011. 7-GDP SICJ Group (S. Korea, Indonesia, China, Japan ) will increase to $ Bln.26,603(2020) ,$Bln. 42,374 (2030),$Bln. 88,704(2050) and $ Bln. 119,664 (2060) that will be 70.7% total GDP for BRIC in 2060. 8-United Korea will be one of the main economy players after 2020 and it will be ninth top rank in 2060. 9-Russia economy has huge potentially but should be solve their political problem to convert from oligarchy economy to free economy with transparency to be top fifth rank in 2060. 10- Undeveloped countries same Nigeria, Vietnam, Philipina, Iran and Egypt will be changed and moved to second 10 largest world economy. 11- Small European countries will be loses their size and rank fret 2017. 12- Demographic population and old age will be serious problem for European Countries and also Japan that it effect to their world rank after 2017. 13- We predict between 2025 to 2030 there will be a major overhaul of economic output and world GDP that some large top economy, small European Countries and poor countries will be the big losers. 14- Germany will be top European economy (G7) and also will takeover Japan in 2050 and even sooner because Japan debt is top debt in the world 15- Despite that emerging economy will jump more than developed economy but know economy index in emerging economy are more poor in compare with G7 and G20 and 70% of top 20 global brand with more than brand value as # Bln.USD 460 are belong to USA.

39

Sources:
1- www.econjobrumors.com/topic/the-power-of-soviet-totalitarianism 2- www.knoema.com 3- www.rediff.com 4- Report World 2050 by HSBC 5- ReportWorld 2030-2050 by Glodman Sach 6- Wikipedia 7-Article Fall free market and rise of Controled market By: Gholamhossein Davani Published in lemound Diplomatic farsi version and World Economic newspaper in Persian 2011 8- Report World in 2050 By PriceWaterHouse publication 9- Global terend 2030 Alternative Worlds published by Sweden Embasy 10- Mapping in Global Future - Report of the National Intelligence Councils 2020 Project 11- 2011 Annual report of World Health Organization 12-Report China 2030 By World Bank 13- CIA FACTBOOK Haard copy 2012 14- Pocket World in Figuers 2011 & 2012 15- Wealth Report 2012 16- Goldman Sachs study of BRIC and N11 nations, November 23, 2007.

40