Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| August 22, 2012

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst Nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Associate anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104 Technical Team Rajeev Darji Sr. Research Analyst rajeev.darji@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6136

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| August 22, 2012 Market Highlights (% change)
as on August 21, 2012 Prev. day 1.0 1.1 -0.5 -0.3 2.4 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 0.7 1.2 2.9 1.8 0.3 -0.1 WoW 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.7 4.6 -0.7 1.4 -0.1 3.5 2.5 6.0 2.3 1.9 -0.2 MoM 5.7 5.7 4.6 3.7 24.0 8.3 11.9 7.9 9.2 4.1 9.8 2.6 2.9 -1.2 YoY 10.7 9.4 21.6 25.8 3.2 13.6 12.4 6.1 14.9 -13.2 -32.1 -13.4 -21.9 2.5

Highlights
NIFTY

Last 5421.0 17885.3 13203.58 1413.2 15330.5 1943.2 58917.7 9156.9 96.68 1639.90 2942.10 7585.00 460.13 99.33

UKs Public Sector Net Borrowing declined by 1.8 billion Pounds in July. US Dollar Index (DX) slips below the 82-mark in yesterdays trade. UKs Industrial Order Expectations further declined to -21-level in Aug. Japans Trade Balance was at deficit of 0.33 trillion Yen in last month.

SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI

Asian markets are trading on a negative note on the back of more than more than expected decline in Japans trade deficit along with expectations of bailout package for Greece which is awaited from Euro Zone finance ministers in meeting this week.

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined by 0.7 percent in yesterdays trading session taking cues from rise in risk appetite in the global markets in the early part of the trade which led to decline in demand for the low yielding currency. Also expectations of steps to be taken by European policymakers to solve Euro Zone debt crisis added downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of decline in US equities in yesterdays trade. The currency touched an intraday low of 81.81 and closed at 81.92 on Tuesday.
Nymex Crude (Jun'12) -$/bbl Comex Gold (Jun12) - $/oz Comex Silver(May12) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR July12 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR July12 Futures (MCX-SX) 81.92 55.30 55.58 55.58 Prev. day -0.7 0.4 -0.44 -0.43

as on August 21, 2012 WoW -0.7 0.5 -0.43 0.44 MoM -2.6 1.5 0.43 0.44 YoY 10.5 -17.6 21.39 21.49

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee appreciated by 0.4 percent yesterday taking cues from upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX. Additionally, increase in the foreign inflows also acted as a positive factor for the currency. Indian equities also ended on an upbeat note which also supported upside in the currency. It touched an intra-day high of 55.405 and closed at 55.30 in yesterdays trading session. For the current month, FII inflows totaled at Rs 6,015.70 crores till 21 August 2012. While on a year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs st 58,281.50 crores till 21 August 2012. Outlook From the intra-day perspective, we expect Rupee to depreciate on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global markets which will lead to increase in demand for the DX. However, sharp depreciation in the currency will be cushioned on account of continuous inflows of foreign funds.
st

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR August12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways

valid for August 22, 2012 Support 55.45/55.30 Resistance 55.65/55.80

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| August 22, 2012

Euro/INR
Euro appreciated around 1 percent yesterday on expectation that European leaders might progress in solving the Euro zone debt crisis in the meetings to be held in the week. Additionally weakness in the DX also added to the gains of the currency in yesterdays session. It touched an intra-day high of 1.2488 and closed at 1.247 on Tuesday. Outlook In todays session we expect Euro to depreciate due to strength in the DX. However, any steps towards solving Euro Zone debt crisis by the European policymakers can lead to appreciation in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR August12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Sideways 68.70/68.50 69.10/69.25 valid for August 22, 2012 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July12 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July12 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.247 69.03 68.97 69.0 Prev. day 1.0 -0.7 0.07 0.05 WoW 1.2 -0.8 0.06 0.03

as on August 21, 2012 MoM 3.4 -1.9 1.86 1.88 YoY -13.1 -5.2 4.91 4.96

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

GBP/INR
The Pound appreciated by 0.5 percent yesterday taking cues from weakness in the DX. However, further upside in the currency was restricted on the back of unfavorable economic data from the country. The currency touched an intra-day high of 1.5803 and closed at 1.5783 on Tuesday. UKs Public Sector Net Borrowing declined by 1.8 billion Pounds in July as against a rise of 12.2 billion Pounds in June. Confederation of British Industry (CBI) Industrial Order Expectations further declined to -21-level in August from previous decline of -6-mark in July. Outlook We expect Pound to trade on a negative note on the back of weak global market sentiments. Additionally, strength in the DX will also add downside pressure on the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR August 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for August 22, 2012 Support 87.30/87.15 Resistance 87.60/87.75

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)
Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July12 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July12 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.5783 87.35 87.54 Prev. day 0.5 -0.2 0.03 WoW 0.7 -0.2 0.00

as on August 21, 2012

MoM 1.8 -0.3 0.86

YoY -4.1 -16.5 15.95

87.53

0.01

0.01

0.83

16.04

Source: Reuters

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Currencies Daily Report

Wednesday| August 22, 2012

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.2 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of favorable economic data from the country. Additionally, rise in risk aversion in the global markets in the early part of the trade also led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. It touched an intra-day high of 79.20 and closed at 79.27 on Tuesday. Japans Industries Activity increased by 0.2 percent in July from previous decline of 0.2 percent a month ago. Trade Balance was at a deficit of 0.33 trillion Yen in July as against a previous deficit of 0.32 trillion Yen in June. Outlook We expect Yen to appreciate on account of weak global markets which will lead to rise in demand for the low yielding currency. However, unfavorable economic data from the country might cushion sharp upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR August 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for August 22, 2012 Support 69.70/69.55 Resistance 70.10/70.35

JPY (% change)
Last 79.27 0.698 69.91 69.90 Prev day -0.2 0.1 -0.47 -0.46

as on August 21, 2012 WoW 0.7 1.1 -1.52 -1.52 MoM 1.4 2.8 -0.64 -0.63 YoY 3.2 -17.7 17.10 17.09

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July12 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July12 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on August 22, 2012

Indicator Trade Balance Existing Home Sales Crude Oil Inventories FOMC Meeting Minutes Country Japan US US US Time (IST) 5:20am 7:30pm 8:00pm 11:30pm Actual -0.33T Forecast -0.46T 4.52M Previous -0.30T 4.37M -3.7M Impact Medium High Medium High

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