1

2010 H2 Maths Common Test

1 A College choir consists of 12 sopranos, 11 altos, 6 tenors, 8 basses. A group consisting of 9
sopranos, 8 altos, 4 tenors, 4 basses is chosen from the choir to represent the College in a
competition.

(i) In how many different ways can the group be chosen? [2]

(ii) The 4 tenors and 4 basses in the group stand in a single line with all the tenors next to each
other and all the basses next to each other. In how many ways can the 4 tenors and 4 basses
be arranged in a line if three particular tenors refuse to stand next to any of the basses?
[3]

(iii) In how many ways can the 9 chosen sopranos be arranged in a circle if the 4 tallest stand
next to each other and the two shortest are separated? [3]

1(i) Number of ways =
12 11 6 8
9 8 4 4
C C C C
= 38,115000

Multiplication
Principle should be
used, not Addition
Principle.
(ii) Case 1 :
3 particular tenors T B B B B
Case 2 :
BBBB T 3 particular tenors
Number of ways to arrange the 4 basses = 4!
Number of ways to arrange the 3 particular tenors = 3!
For each case, number of ways = 4! 3!
Total number of ways = 4! 3! 2
= 288

Students are strongly
advised to show clear
working and explain
their working using
words or at the least,
diagrams.
(iii) Stage 1 : Consider the 4 tallest as 1 unit. Arrange this unit and 3
others(excluding the 2 shortest) in a circle in 3! ways. Arrange the
4 tallest within the unit in 4! ways.
Stage 2 : Slot in the 2 shortest in
4
2
P ways.
Total number of ways =
4
3! 4! P
= 1728
Alternative method
Total number of ways = No. of ways which 4 tallest together
No. of ways which 4 tallest together and two shortest together
= 5! 4! 4! 4! 2! =1728


2 In a particular year, the racial distribution of the SAJC student population is as follows:







Race Number of students
Chinese 960
Malay 320
Indian 160
Eurasian & Others 160
Total 1600
2

The Interact Club of SAJC would like to organise a Racial Harmony Day Exhibition and so
decided to survey a sample of 60 students.

(i) The chairperson of the Interact Club proposed to obtain this sample by selecting the first
person in each class register of all the 60 classes. Give one disadvantage of this method.
[1]

(ii) Describe in detail how this sample could be chosen if it is to be a stratified random sample.
[3]

(iii) The number of students who visited the exhibition organised by the Interact Club in a
randomly chosen minute may be assumed to follow a Poisson distribution with mean 2. If 80
such one minute intervals are observed, what is the probability that the mean number of
students visiting the exhibition per minute is greater than 2.2?
Explain why the Poisson distribution may not be a good model for the number of students
who visited the exhibition in one minute. [4]

2 (i) Possible answers :
- The sample is biased as the selected process is a non-random, so not
every student in the population has an equal chance of being selected.
- The first person in the register may be a girl so it is gender bias.
- The sample selected may not be maximally representative of the
population (e.g. not all the races are represented).

The question asked
students to give one
disadvantage, but
some students merely
described the
sampling method(e.g.
non-random method)
and did not state what
are the disadvantages
of the method (which
are underlined in the
solution given).
(ii)
For stratified sampling, the ratio of the entire race is maintained; hence the
number of students to be selected from each race is as stated in the table above.
Within each race, the students are selected randomly. E.g all the Chinese
students are numbered from 1 to 960 and the computer is used to generate 36
numbers from 001 to 960. Students that correspond to the number generated are
selected
Strata No. of
students
(population)
Proportion No. of
students
(sample)
Chinese 960 0.6 36
Malay 320 0.2 12
Indian 160 0.1 6
Eurasian & Others 160 0.1 6
60

Many gave
incomplete answer as
they only stated the
sample size for each
stratum. They did not
describe how
sampling is done
within each strata. As
this is a 3-mark
question, students are
required to give a
more detailed answer.


(iii) Let X be the r.v the no. of students who visits the booth in a one minute
interval.
~ Po(2) X

Students are expected
to define random
variables clearly and
state the relevant
distributions.
3
1 80
... ~ Po(2 80 160) X X + + =

1 80
1 80
1 80
...
( 2.2) ( 2.2)
80
( ... 176)
1 ( ... 176) 0.0975
X X
P X P
P X X
P X X
+ +
> = >
= + + >
= + + s =


Alternative method
Since 80 50 n = > is large, by Central Limit Theorem,
2
~ (2, )
80
X N
approximately.
( 2.2) 0.103 P X > =


2
[normalcdf(2.2,E99,2, )]
80


Possible answers to explain why the Poisson distribution may not be a
good model for the number of students who visited the exhibition in one
minute :
- The students visiting the exhibition in one minute may not be
independent of one another.
- The average rate of students visiting the exhibition may not be a
constant from minute to minute.

Mistake : use r.v. 80X
instead of
1 80
... X X + + .




Students should
justify why CLT is
used.




This part is poorly
answered as many
students give a
reasonable answer in
the context of this
question.
But students are to
note that this may be
an important question
for A Level exam.









3 (a) Susan only buys coffee or tea from the Shangri-La Caf. The probability of Susan buying a
cup of tea on any given day is p. The probability that a randomly chosen coffee Susan buys
is hot is 0.1. The probability that a randomly chosen tea Susan buys is not hot is 0.7. Using a
tree diagram, calculate, leaving your answers in terms of p, the probability that a hot drink
bought by Susan is tea. [3]


(b) A class of twenty students consists of 11 girls and 9 boys. For a discussion session, 4
officers are chosen at random as Judge, Scribe, Plaintiff and Defendant.
Find, giving your answers in exact form,

(i) the probability that two officers are girls and two are boys [2]

(ii) the probability that the Plaintiff and Defendant are both girls [2]

(iii) the probability that the Plaintiff and Defendant are of opposite gender given that the
Judge and Scribe are both girls. [3]
4


3(a)

P(tea & hot)
P(tea hot)
P(hot)
0.3
(1 )0.1 0.3
0.3
0.1 0.2
p
p p
p
p
=
=
+
=
+



Students who used
letters to represent
the events in the tree
diagram should
define the events
first.








Many could not
interpret the question
correctly (which is to
find the conditional
probability).
3 (b)
(i) P( two officers are girls and two are boys)
=
11 10 9 8 4! 132
20 19 18 17 2!2! 323
=

or
11 9
2 2
20
4
132
323
C C
C
=

(ii) P (Plaintiff and Defendant are both girls)
=
11 10 18 17 11
20 19 18 17 38
=

or
11 18
2 2
20
4
2! 2! 11
4! 38
C C
C

=

(iii) P (Plaintiff and Defendant are of opposite gender AND Judge and
Scribe are both girls) =
11 10 9 9 99
2
20 19 18 17 646
=

Some students did
not multiply the prob
by
4!
2!2!
.






Parts (ii) and (iii)
were poorly done.
Many used the P & C
method and ended up
with many mistakes.
Perhaps these
students should do
the question using the
fraction method.





5

9 11
1 3
20
4
3! 2 99
or
4! 646
C C
C
| |
=
|

\ .

P (Plaintiff and Defendant are of opposite gender Judge and
Scribe are both girls) =
99 11 9
646 38 17
=


4 The volume of milk in millilitres in bottles is normally distributed with mean and standard
deviation o . Measurements were taken of the volume in 900 of these bottles and it was found that
225 of them contained more than 1002 millilitres and 400 of them contained less than 998
millilitres. Show that 999 and 4.91 = = when corrected to 3 significant figures.
[3]

A bottle of milk is considered short-filled if it contains less than 995 millilitres. The bottles of
milk are packed into boxes of 20 for distribution to the supermarkets. A box is considered to be
accepted if it contains less than 2 short-filled bottles of milk. Calculate the probability that in a
randomly chosen batch of 15 boxes, more than 2 boxes are accepted.
[4]
4 Let X be the volume of milk in ml.
2
~ ( , ) X N o
225
P( 1002)
900
675
P( 1002)
900
1002 675
P( )
900
1002
0.67449 (1)
X
X
Z

o

o
> =
s =

s =

=


400
P( 998)
900
998 4
( )
9
998
0.13971 (2)
X
P Z

o

o
< =

< =

=


998.69 , 4.9128
999 , 4.91 (3sig fig) (Shown)
o
o
= =
= =



Students are expected
to define random
variables clearly and
state the relevant
distributions.
A few forgot to
change the > sign
in P( 1002) X > to
< before using
GC(invNorm).

For all intermediate
workings, students
should leave all
answers in 5 sig fig
or more.
Clear working to
solve the
simultaneous
equations are
expected to be shown
as the results are
given in the question.
6
Using the answer above, we have
2
~ (999, 4.91 ) X N
P(X < 995 ) = 0.20763
Let Y be random variable no. of bottles that are short-filled in a box of
20.
~ B(20, 0.20763) Y
P( 2) P( 1) 0.059401 Y Y < = s = = P(a box is accepted)
Let W be random variable no. of boxes that are accepted out of 15.
~ B(15, 0.059401) W
P( 2) 1 P( 2) 0.0557 W W > = s =











5
The mass of a randomly chosen watermelon follows a normal distribution with mean 1.20 kg and
standard deviation 0.5 kg .

Let W be the total mass of 12 randomly chosen watermelons.

(i) Find the probability that the total mass of 12 watermelons exceeds10 kg . [3]
(ii) Find the probability that the mean mass of 12 randomly chosen water melons is between 1.1
kg and 1.2 kg. [2]

John wants to ship 12 watermelons to his girlfriend who is working in Japan. The cost of shipping
is calculated as follows :
$108.80 for the first 10 kg and $8.60 per kg for any additional weight.

Assuming that the total weight of 12 watermelons is more than10 kg , the cost of shipping
108.80 8.6( 10) C W = + .

(iii) Find the mean and variance of C . [2]

(iv) Calculate the probability that the cost of shipping exceeds $180.90. [2]


5


(i)
Let X be the random variable mass of a watermelon in kg.
( )
2
~ N 1.20, 0.5 X
1 2 12
W X X X = + + +
( ) ( )
2
0.5 ~ N 14.4,12 N 14.4, 3 W =
Students are expected
to define random
variables clearly and
state the relevant
distributions.



( ) P 10 0.994 W > =



(ii) Let
1 2 12
12
X X X
X
+ + +
=


Common mistake :
7
2
0.5
~ N 1.20,
12
X
| |
|
\ .

( )
P 1.1 1.2 0.256 X < < =
Alternative method
( )
( )
1 2 12
1 2 12
P 1.1 1.2
12
P 1.1 12 1.2 12
P 1.1 12 1.2 12 0.256
X X X
X X X
W
+ + + | |
< <
|
\ .
= < + + + <
= < < =

3
~ N 14.4,
12
W
| |
|
\ .


Mean mass of 12
water melons is
denoted by
1 2 12
12
X X X + + +
, not
W .

(iii)
( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
E E 108.80 8.6 10
E 108.80 8.6E 8.6E 10
108.80 8. 14.4 6
146.64
86
C W
W
= +
= +
=
= +


( ) ( ) ( )
( ) ( ) ( )
2 2
2 2
Var Var 108.80 8.6 10
Var 108.80 8.6 Var 8.6 Var 10
8 12 .6
221.
0 5
8
.
8
C W
W

= +
= + +
=
=

Some students did not
know how to use the
properties of mean and
variance.

(iv)
( ) ~ N 146.64, 221.88 C
( ) P 180.90 0.0107 C > =

Students are expected
to state the distribution
for C.
6 Major avalanches can be regarded as randomly occurring events. They occur at a uniform average
rate of 8 per year.

(i) Find the probability that more than 3 and at most 7 major avalanches occur in a 3-month
period. [2]

(ii) Find the probability that the total number of major avalanches in two separate periods of 1-
month and 4-month is 7. [2]

(iii) Given that the probability of at least one major avalanche occurring in a period of
n-month is greater than 0.995, find the least possible integer value of n. [4]

(iv) Taking a decade to consist of forty 3-month periods, using a suitable approximation, find the
probability that, in a particular decade, there are at least 10 of these 3-month periods during
which more than 3 major avalanches occur. [4]


6(i) Let X be the random variable the number of major avalanches in a 3-
month period.
~ X Po (2)
P(3 X 7) P(X 7) P(X 3)
0.142 (3sig fig)
< s = s s
~

Students are expected
to define random
variables clearly and
state the relevant
distributions.
Some students did
8
not even know how
to compute
P(3 X 7) < s by
expressing it as
P(X 7) P(X 3) s s .
(ii) Let R be the random variable the total number of major avalanches in
two separate periods of 1-month and 4-month
~ R Po
10
3
| |
|
\ .

P(R 7) 0.0324 (3sig fig) = ~

Students are expected
to define a new r.v.
and state its
distribution as the
mean has changed.
(iii) Let W be the random variable the number of major avalanches in a n-
month period.
W~ Po
2
3
n
| |
|
\ .

2
3
P(W 1) 0.995
1 P(W 0) 0.995
P(W 0) 0.005
0.005
2
ln0.005
3
7.947
n
e
n
n

> >
= >
= <
<
<
>

Least n = 8.

Alternative method (using GC press Y = ,
enter
1
poissonpdf ((2 / 3)X, 0) Y = , press 2
ND
, GRAPH. X rep n)
P(W 0) 0.005 = <
From GC,
when n = 7, P(W 0) 0.0094 0.005 = = >
when n = 8, P(W 0) 0.00483 0.005 = = <
Hence least n = 8.

Define new r.v.







The formula for
P(W 0) = can be
found in MF15.






(iv) Let Y be the random variable the number of 3-month periods in a
decade, during which more than 3 major avalanches occur
Y ~ B (40, 0.14288)




Since n is large , np =5.7152 > 5 and nq = 34.2848 >5
Then Y ~ N (5.7152, 4.8986) approximately.



. .
P(Y 10) P(Y 9.5)
0.0436 (3sig fig)
c c
> >
~

A few students
defined the r.v.
wrongly, they defined
Y as the no. of major
avalanches occurring
in 40 3-month
periods.
Students are expected
to justify why a
Normal
approximation can be
used.
Some answers are
inaccurate due to pre-
9
mature
approximation.
Many students did
not do continuity
correction.

7
The time, x hours, that a random sample of 50 adults of a certain age group spent surfing the
internet on a particular day was recorded. The results are summarized by


2
337, 2397. x x = =



(i) Find unbiased estimates of the population mean and variance. [2]

(ii) Given that the population mean is equal to the unbiased estimate of the population mean
obtained in part (i), find the value of a such that there is a probability of 0.05 that a sample
mean of 50 adults differs from the population mean by more than a.
[4]
State, giving a reason, whether any assumptions about the population are needed in order
for the calculations to be valid. [1]

7(i)
Unbiased estimate of the population mean , 6.74
50
x
x = =

Unbiased estimate of the population variance o
2
,
2
s
( )
2
2
2
1 1
1
1 337
2397 2.5637 2.56
49 50
x x
n n
(
=
(

(
= = ~
(






Formula for unbiased
estimate of
population variance
can be found in MF
15.
(ii)
Let X be the random variable the sample mean of 50 adults.
2.5637
~ N(6.74, )
50
X approximately by CLT.






Students are expectd
to use CLT to find
the distribution of
X in this case as the
distribution of the
population is not
stated as normally
distributed in the
question and n is
large .
The phrase sample
mean differs from
population mean
in the question tells
us that either X
exceeds or
exceeds X , hence we
are to use the
modulus function.
10
( )
( )
P 6.74 0.05
P( 6.74 ) P( 6.74 ) 0.05
P( 6.74 ) P( 6.74 ) 0.05
2P( 6.74 ) 0.05 (by symmetry)
0.05
P 6.74 0.025
2
6.74 6.2962 [invNorm(0.025,6.74, 2.5637 / 50)]
0.4438
Hence, 0.444 (3 s.f
X a
X a X a
X a X a
X a
X a
a
a
a
> =
< + > =
< + > + =
< =
< = =
=
=
= .)

Take note of the
following rule for
inequality :
or
Y a
Y a Y a
>
> <

Possible answers :
- The time spent by each of the 50 adults are independent of one
another.
- No assumptions are required. This is because we can apply the
Central Limit Theorem to establish the distribution of X since
n = 50 is large.


8 The table below shows the total population(P), the resale price index of flats(I) and the number of
non-Singaporeans(F) in Singapore from the year 2002 to the year 2009.

Year (Y) 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Total
population
(millions) (P) 4.176 4.115 4.166 4.265 4.401 4.589 4.839 4.988
Resale price
index of flats
(I) 96.7 103.9 106.6 101.6 103.6 121.7 139.4 150.8
No. of Non-
Singaporeans
(millions) (F) 0.7931 0.7479 0.7534 0.7980 0.8755 1.0055 1.1967 1.2537

Data extracted from: http://www.singstat.gov.sg/stats/themes/people/hist/pop.xls and
http://www.hdb.gov.sg/fi10/fi10321p.nsf/w/BuyResaleFlatResaleIndex?OpenDocument

Sociologist A would like to investigate whether there is a linear relationship between the total
population(millions)(P) and the resale price index of flats(I).

(i) Sketch a scatter diagram for the variables P and I. [1]

(ii) Calculate the equation of the regression line of I on P. [1]

(iii) Calculate the product moment correlation coefficient between P and I. [1]

(iv) Estimate the resale price index of flats when the total population is 4.5 million, giving your
answer to 1 decimal place. Comment on the suitability of your estimate.
[2]

Sociologist B would like to find the relationship between the variables year(Y) and the number of
11
non-Singaporean(millions)(F).

(v) Sketch a scatter diagram for the variables Y and F. State, with a reason, which of the
following models fits the data for the variables Y and F.

F bY a = +


( )
2
2003 F b Y a = +
[2]

(vi) Calculate the values of a and b for the model you have chosen in (v). [2]






8 (i)


Students are expected
to label the axis of the
graph clearly.
(ii)
Using the GC
57.409 139.49 (5 s.f.)
57.4 139 (3 s.f. )
I P
I P
=
=




(iii) 0.956 r =


(iv) When 4.5 P = ,
4.5 139.49 118 7 9 5 .409 . I = = (1 d.p.)




The estimate is suitable since 0.956 1 r = ~ ,which shows that there is a strong
positive linear relation between P and I and P = 4.5 is within the range of the
given data.

Students are expected
to use the answer(eqn)
in at least 5 s.f. to
compute I. If not, there
would a loss of
accuracy.
Students are expected
to justify with both
reasons:
- 1 r ~
- P = 4.5 within
given data range
(v)



From the scatter diagram, there seems to be a quadratic relationship between F
and Y , hence ( )
2
2003 F b Y a = + is a better model for the given data.

Alternative method








For this question, it is
obvious from the graph
that the quadratic
model is a better fit.
Note : For other similar
P
I
Y
F
12
r between F and Y = 0.911
r between F and ( )
2
2003 Y = 0.987
Since r between F and ( )
2
2003 Y is closer to 1 when compared to r between F
and Y, ( )
2
2003 F b Y a = + is a better model for the given data.

questions which are not
obvious which of the
given models fits the
data, you are expected
to find the r value for
all the models (as in the
alternative method
shown).
(vi)
Using the GC
0.754 a = , 0.0151 b =

The End