Seasonal Cycle, Interannual and Decadal Variability of Peruvian Anchovy Population Dynamics: A Model Study Ph.

D Thesis Proposal Defense

Yi Xu April 2006

Acknowledgements
Advisor: Dr. Fei Chai Committee:
Huijie Xue, James McCleave, Andrew Thomas (UMaine) Kenneth Rose (Louisiana State University) Francisco Chavez (MBARI)

Ocean Modeling Group: Others:

Guimei Liu, Lei Shi, Steve Cousins, Danya Xu, Yi Du

Nana Xu (University of Pennsylvania) Lei Han (Ocean University of China) Chunbao Miao (NOAA, Washington DC) Xian Wang (University of Alaska)

Funded by NASA & NSF

Outline
Introduction Questions Physical, Biogeochemical, and Fish Models ROMS-CoSINE Model Output Analysis Development of IBM for Peruvian Anchovy
Case Study 1: Mean Condition Case Study 2: Seasonal Cycle Case Study 3: Interannual Variability Sensitivity Studies

Current and Future Work Summary

Introduction
why Peruvian anchovy?
Peruvian Anchovy

8.863 4.533 4.379 2.33 2.167 1.527 1.483 1.479 1.329 1.275 0 2

The largest single species in the worlds fisheries About 18~20% of the worlds fish catch

Alaska Pollock Chilian Jack Mackerel Atlantic Herring Chub Mackerel Capelin South American Pilchard Skipjack Tuna Atlantic Cod Largehead Hairtail

The Worlds Fishery Production (unit in million metric tons) Top 10 species (FAO Database 1996)
4 6 8 10

Introduction
coast of Peru 0S-20S 70W-85W Northwestward wind Strong Upwelling Cool surface temperature Highly productive region Wind

SST anomaly vs Peruvian Anchovy Catch

-2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

Peruvian Anchovy Catch (x 106 metric tons)

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Year

3mrm Monthly SST Anomaly (deg C) for Nino 1+2

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

-3

PDO, Peruvian Anchovy and Sardine

Chavez et al., Science, 2003

Anchovy-regime

Sardine-regime

Questions

What are the key environmental factors regulate Peruvian anchovy growth dynamics? How do these factors vary on seasonal, interannual, and decadal time scale? How do physical and biological conditions affect Peruvian anchovy recruitment and natural mortality? What is the role of ocean current in controlling Peruvian anchovy larvae distribution and their growth dynamics? How do El Nino events affect larvae and adult distribution? What is the impact of Peruvian anchovy on plankton biomass and productivity? How can we use the model to evaluate and compare natural and fishing mortality of Peruvian anchovy?

Physical, Biogeochemical, and Fish Models

The Circulation Model:
Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS)

The Biogeochemical Model:

Carbon, Nitrogen Silicate Ecosystem (CoSINE)

The Fish Model:

Individual Based Model (IBM)

ROMS
Pacific Ocean NCEP Forcing Fine Resolution 50km or 12.5km

CoSINE
MicroZooplankton [Z1]
Grazing Predation

Small Phytoplankton [P1]

NH4 Uptake

Biological Uptake NO3 Uptake

Air-Sea Exchange

Total CO2 [TCO2]

Fecal Pellet

Mesozooplankton [Z2]
Lost Fecal Pellet

Excretion

Iron
N-Uptake

Ammonium [NH4]
Grazing

Nitrate [NO3]
Advection & Mixing

Iron Iron

Diatoms [P2]
Sinking

Detritus-N [DN]
Sinking

Detritus-Si [DSi]
Sinking Dissolution

Si-Uptake

Silicate [Si(OH)4]

Physical Model

Carbon, Silicate, Nitrogen Ecosystem Model Chai et al. 2002; Dugdale et al. 2002

ROMSROMS-CoSINE Output
extracted data for Coast of Peru
ROMSCoSINE Resolution Grids Forcing Output Time Interval Time Series Status I 50km 343233 Daily Monthly 1990-2004 Available II 50km 343233 Daily Monthly 1950-2004 N/A III 12.5km 16612033 Monthly Monthly Climatology Available IV 12.5km 16612033 Daily 3 days 1950-2004 N/A

ROMSROMS-CoSINE Output
12.5km resolution

Temperature (Surface and Vertical Profile)

ROMSROMS-CoSINE Output
Model comparison study----Annual Mean Condition study----Annual ROMS-CoSINE In-situ SeaWiFS

Surface Chlorophyll

ROMSROMS-CoSINE Output
Model comparison study---- Seasonal Cycle study----

Focus: Individual Based Model (IBM)

Mass

and energy balance Connect fish with environmental factors

Track fish growth through entire stages Track fish population Track fish movement

Focus: IBM
Growth

For egg and yolk-sac larva: Temperature dependent From first feeder to adult: Bioenergetic equation

Calz dW =[C -(R + S +F + E)] W dt Calf

Mortality

C-consumption R-respiration S-specific dynamic action F-egestion E-excretion

Natural & Fishing Currents, Swimming Behavior, Random Effects

Movement

Anchovy IBM: Input and Output

Input

Temperature 4 types of plankton groups Currents Biological Parameters of anchovy (growth, food selection coefficients, etc.)

list

Output

IBM

Growth: length and weight at age Population dynamics: numbers at age Movement: trajectories of anchovy schools

list

Preliminary Results
One

fish growth study

Case study 1: Steady State Condition Case study 2: Seasonal Cycle Case study 3: Interannual Variability

Sensitivity

Study

Case Study 1---Steady State 1---Steady

Modeled Anchovy Growth Length@age

Lab observation (Palomares et al., 1987)

Vitrual Population Analysis (Pauly et al., 1987)

Case Study 2---Seasonal Cycle 2---Seasonal

Growth Length@age

Weight@age

Case Study 2---Seasonal Cycle 2---Seasonal

Anchovy Recruitment to 5cm (recruit to fishery)
diatom mesozooplankton Recruitment

Case Study 3 ---Interannual ---Interannual Variability

Temperature

mesozooplankton diatom

Recruitment

Moderate El Nino

Strong El Nino

Sensitivity Studies
Temperature Effects

Sensitivity Studies
Food Selection

diatom

mesozooplankton

microzooplankton

Current Work---Population Work---Population

Mortality rate

Current Work---Population Work---Population

Egg Distribution

(Pauly, 1987)

Future Work

3D Simulation

4 Different regions Movement

Direct link fish model with ROMS-CoSINE model Natural vs Fishing Mortality Longer time series for PDO study

Summary
ROMS-CoSINE ecosystem model results show promising performance on Peruvian upwelling system. An IBM for Peruvian anchovy has been developed, based on bioenergetic equations to study its growth through the entire life span. Three different environmental conditions are examined, the steady state condition, seasonal cycle and interannual variation. The preliminary results show a clear response of anchovy growth dynamics corresponding with physical and biological processes on seasonal and interannual time scale. Future Work:

Study the population dynamics of Peruvian anchovy and movement behavior in a 3D domain. Link fish model directly with biogeochemical model, and include feedback processes. Separate the fishing term from the natural mortality.

--The End---The End-Questions?