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24, 2010 | NASSAU EDITION

****SPORTS FINAL
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SPORTS

SIENA RESEARCH INSTITUTE POLL

HOW LI WOULD VOTE

PLUS Profiles of the guv candidates COVERAGE ON A4-5 AND A14-18
COPYRIGHT 2010, NEWSDAY LLC, LONG ISLAND, VOL. 71, NO. 52

61% 27%

CUOMO

PALADINO

PHOTO BY CHARLES ECKERT

NEWSDAY PHOTO / ALEJANDRA VILLA

A4

Poll: Cuomo way

Attorney general race close; voter unrest in House races
elizabeth.moore@newsday.com

ELECTION 2010

See the full results of the Newsday/Siena poll at newsday.com/politics

BY ELIZABETH MOORE

THE SERIES
TODAY Who Long Islanders favor and why TOMORROW How LI voters view the job performance of President Obama uncovered by Sienas pollsters, who found only 38 percent of voters inclined to return their local U.S. representative to office. By contrast, 43 percent said they preferred someone else, and 19 percent were unsure or had no opinion. The dissatisfaction was slightly more pronounced in Suffolk, with 45 percent looking for an alternative. Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand has been considered vulnerable since the day she was appointed to replace Hillary Rodham Clinton. On Long Island, Siena found her with a 10-point lead over Republican Joseph DioGuardi, 48 to 38, but 14 percent were still undecided. By contrast, the states senior senator, Charles Schumer, leads Republican Jay Townsend by 62 percent to 30 percent. State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli found more support, leading Republican Harry Wilson, a former hedge-fund manager, by 51 percent to 30 percent. But 19 percent of voters were undecided, and campaign advertising and news coverage has sharply intensified in that race last week. Behind the uncertainty is the states perilous fiscal condition and voters pessimism. Sixtyseven percent believed New York is headed in the wrong direction, and 61 percent felt the same way about Long Island. Long Islanders today are far more pessimistic about the direction that both New York and the Island are headed than they were a year ago, Levy said.

LONG ISLANDERS ON THE ELECTION the election Q Ifheld today, for for governor were
whom would you vote?
Paladino

Long Island is not Carl Paladino country. Voters in the Newsday/Siena Research Institute poll said they would choose Attorney General Andrew Cuomo over the Buffalo businessmen by a margin of 61 percent to 27 percent, with 10 percent undecided. Just 22 percent viewed Paladino favorably, compared to 61 percent who admired Cuomo. And 81 percent expected Cuomo to win the race. Voters see Cuomo as better able to address just about any issue than Paladino, and Siena also found a gender gap: 67 percent of women and 56 percent of men hold a favorable view of Cuomo, while 27 percent of men liked Paladino, compared to 17 percent of women. Overwhelmingly, Andrew Cuomo is viewed favorably, Carl Paladino unfavorably and come election night, expect Long Island to contribute to making the attorney general our next governor, said Don Levy, director of the Siena institute. Those 1,001 Nassau and Suffolk voters were interviewed between Oct. 11 and 17, on the eve of Paladinos debate performance at Hofstra University. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Paladino just seems like a real loose cannon, like theres no filter between what hes thinking and what he says, said Republican John Duane of East Meadow, a banker who would have voted for ex-GOP candidate Rick Lazio. By far the closest race on Long Island is the attorney generals race, with Democratic state Sen. Eric Schneidermans edge over Republican Dan Donovan, the Staten Island district attorney, too close to call at 39 to 37. A decisive 24 percent of voters had yet to make up their minds on that contest. And Long Islands members of Congress should be feeling nervous about the voter unrest

Cuomo

AP

Andrew Cuomo (D)

61%

Carl Paladino (R)

27%

NEWSDAY PHOTO / AUDREY C. TIERNAN

Gillibrand up by 10 points

10%
Responses are from registered voters

NEWSDAY / ROD EYER

Not voting Men Women

1%

Someone else
Cuomo 55% Cuomo 67% Paladino 33% Paladino 22%

1%

Dont know/ no opinion

www.newsday.com

NEWSDAY, SUNDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2010

The Newsday/Siena Research Institute Poll of 1,001 registered voters on Long Island was conducted by telephone from Oct. 11 to 15 and Oct. 17. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points. Of those surveyed, 771 were likely voters and as a group their responses had an error margin of 3.5 points.

Nonwhite Long Islanders are more optimistic than whites: 32 percent told Siena they believe the state is headed in the right direction, compared with 15 percent of whites. For all the splash it has made this year, the tea party movement does not fare particularly well here: just 35 percent of registered voters have a favorable view of it, while 48 percent are

unfavorable. That sympathy is linked strongly with gender: 43 percent of men have a favorable view of the movement, but only 28 percent of women do. Not surprisingly, property taxes continue to top the list of concerns for voters, with 43 percent calling it the No. 1 issue. The availability of jobs comes in

Property taxes top concern

second with 27 percent, and quality of the schools third at 11 percent. A resounding 78 percent of Long Island voters favor a property tax cap, support that crosses all genders, parties, religions, ethnicities and income levels. On who would do a better job on key issues, Cuomo topped Paladino: on Long Islands needs (60 to 26): creating jobs (57 to 29) and on making Albany less

MORE COVERAGE

Profiles of Paladino, Cuomo, A14-17

The LI Assembly Races, In LI Life

ahead on LI
N ewsday SIENA RESEARCH INSTITUTE POLL
Who better Q on thewould do aissues?job following
Andrew Cuomo (D)
Long Island issues Registered voters Men Women Whites Nonwhites

RESPONDENTS ON THE RACE

A5

If U.S. Senate Q forthe election foryou vote? were held today, whom would
Carl Paladino (R) 26% 32 20 29 13 30% 35 24 34 12 29% 35 22 33 11

Angelo Maltese Seaford I plan to vote for Mr. Cuomo because I like his politics. Im definitely voting to re-elect Peter King. We love him. Long Island is going in the wrong direction, particularly with the property taxes going up continually. Young people cant live here, and more and more seniors cant either.

60% 57 63 58 74

Kirsten Gillibrand (D)

48%

Joe DioGuardi (R)

38%

Reforming state government Registered voters 56% Men 53 Women 59 Whites 53 Nonwhites 74 Creating new jobs Registered voters Men Women Whites Nonwhites

Charles Schumer (D)

62%

Jay Townsend (R)

30%

Rick Tarkin Centerport Im still betwixt on the gubernatorial candidates, said Tarkin, a registered Democrat who favors Republican candidates. I thought Paladino was going to be OK, but its like, Open mouth, insert foot . . . His feet arent firmly planted on the ground . . . and Cuomo is a politico.

57% 52 63 54 72

would Q For whomfor state you vote attorney general?

Eric Schneiderman (D) Dan Donovan (R)

would Q For whomfor state you vote comptroller?

Tom DiNapoli (D) Harry Wilson (R)

Reducing or controlling growth of property taxes Registered voters 49% 38% Men 44 46 Women 54 31 Whites 45 43 Nonwhites 65 20 Reducing states budget deficit Registered voters 50% Men 45 Women 54 Whites 45 Nonwhites 71 dysfunctional (56 to 30). His advantage over Paladino is smallest when it comes to controlling the growth of property taxes (49 to 38) and reducing the states budget deficit (50 to 37). As attorney general he cut out a lot of the crime, and when I called him when I wanted help, he helped me, said Hymie Bormer of Central Islip, who is disabled and got help from Cuo-

39% 37%

51% 30%

37% 46 29 43
16

Island the right Q Is Longheadedon the wrongtrack, or is it in direction?

Right track Registered voters Democrats Republicans Independents/others Wrong direction

Marie Landrin West Babylon Im a Democrat . . . Long Island is still going in the wrong direction. Ive been in this country 38 years. My children were born here, but when I went to enroll my grandchild in school, they wanted me to show them a deed to my house. I know they dont ask for that from everybody.
www.newsday.com

27% 33 19 28

61% 55 73 56

mos office in sorting out a conflict with an insurance company. But some are frustrated by how little substantive discussion theres been on pressing issues. I just havent heard anything that makes sense to me, said Eric Hibbert of Baldwin, who works for a company that buys distressed debt. One guy just sort of yells, and the other guy is playing a little defense.

representative Q If the election for youror someoneyou in Congress were held today, would vote to re-elect your incumbent else?
Incumbent Registered voters Democrats Republicans Ind./others

38% 44 33 35

Someone else

43% 32 51 49

Dont know

19% 24 15 16

Leila Torres Mastic Beach I have no choice but to vote for Cuomo . . . Im holding my nose voting for him because I was a state worker, and I remember that his father treated all of us like garbage. Ill support my current congressman because President Obama needs all the help he can get. As for Long Island, I think its moving in the right direction, but much too slowly.

NEWSDAY, SUNDAY, OCTOBER 24, 2010

SID CASSESE

Responses are from registered voters