Celinda

Lake President Alysia Snell Partner Michael Perry Partner David Mermin Partner Robert G. Meadow, Ph.D. Partner Daniel R. Gotoff Partner Joshua E. Ulibarri Partner Tresa Undem Partner Robert X. Hillman Acting Chief Operating Officer Rick A. Johnson Senior Vice President

To:

Interested Parties

From: Celinda Lake, Daniel Gotoff, and Alex Dunn, Lake Research Partners Re: Economic Messaging Opportunities

Date: August 31, 2012 A recent nationwide survey uncovers several Democratic economic message frames that defeat the Republican economic message, and that boast impressive advantages among important constituencies for the upcoming election.1 The messages rely, in turn, on themes of job creation, economic fairness, investment, and a contrast with the GOP on priorities. Each features a consistent corea proactive agenda built around spurring new innovation, improving education, and rebuilding key infrastructure. The most successful frame is anchored in economic populism, juxtaposing the windfall profits of a handful of millionaires and billionaires with the steady erosion of Americas working middle class. The Republican alternative testeda message shaped using the current Romney-Ryan campaign language in all its rhetorical blusterpulls no punches in lambasting President Obama (the text of the arguments is included on the last page of this memo). In the end, each of the Democratic frames outperforms the GOP version by five to seven percentage points. It is important to remember that at the time of the survey, Democrats trailed Republicans, 40% to 49%, on which party would better handle the economy.2 Perhaps more significant, these frames present important openings for reaching groups of voters that will be pivotal (up and down the ballot) on Election Day. Populism and Job Creation, a message focused on rebuilding the middle class through a Made-in-America agenda that cracks down on job outsourcing, unfair

Lake Research Partners designed and administered this online survey of 1,581 likely voters nationwide. The survey was conducted across two waves between August 16 -22, 2012. The margin of error is +/-2.5%. 2 GWU/Politico Battleground Poll by Lake Research Partners and Tarrance Group. N= 1,000 registered, likely voters nationwide. August 5-9, 2012. MoE: +/- 3.1%.
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Economic Messaging August 2012

trade deals, and corporate tax loopholes, bests the Republican argument by five points (47% to 42%). This message also edges the GOPs in intensity (33% agree much more with the Democratic message compared to 31% who agree much more with the GOP message). Populism and Fairness juxtaposes the plight of the middle class with the richest Americans and the system they rigged in their favor, calling for raising the minimum wage and calling on millionaires and corporations to pay their fair share. This version of our populism framework eclipses the Republican message by six points overall (47% to 41%) and by five points in intensity (32% to 27%). Populism & Jobs vs. GOP Message Populism & Fairness vs. GOP Message

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Democrats Republicans Democrats Republicans Both populism frames generate considerable enthusiasm among three core groups: Swing Women: women choose both populism frames over the GOP alternative by 16 points. The jobs-oriented argument performs roughly equally among women of all ages, while the fairness argument fares much better among younger women, who prefer it to the Republican frame 58% to 27%. The Democratic base: 71% of Democrats side with Populism and Jobs strongly, compared to 74% who strongly side with Populism and Fairness. Democrats choose both populism messages over the Republican alternative by 91 points. Recent data has shown that white working class voters continue to be a target for both Presidential campaigns. While these populist economic frames cannot erase Romneys advantage among white working class voters overnight, they offer the opportunity to make important gains, in particular among white working women. White working women split between Populism and Jobs and the GOP message on intensity (30% each) and choose the GOP message overall by just an 8-point margin (38% Democratic message, 45% GOP message).

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Economic Messaging August 2012

This comes at a time when white non-college educated women identify with Republicans over Democrats, 48% to 37%, and favor the GOP on the economy by 50% to 36%.3 GOPs Wrong Priorities presents the biggest contrast, outlining Democrats plan to create middle class jobs and new investment by asking the wealthy to pay their fair share, rather than cutting taxes on millionaires and gutting Medicare and education. It trumps the Republican message 48% to 41%, and leads 32% to 28% in intensity. While all of these messages appeal to younger voters, Wrong Priorities drives a massive 48-point lead among voters under 30, including nearly half (47%) who side with Democrats strongly. It is also the catalyst for a 22- point lead among independents. Long-Term Investment articulates a boldand ongoingstrategy for infrastructure investments to restart our economy. It leads the Republican argument 48% to 40% and is the strongest message in the South (47% Democratic message, 43% GOP message). It also appeals to independent voters, who choose the investment message over the Republican alternative 34% to 23%. GOPs Wrong Priorities vs. GOP Message Long-Term Investment vs. GOP Message

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Democrats Republicans Democrats Republicans Bottom Line: While each of the four frameworks explored in this research has the power to overcome the composite Republican message, an aggressive economic frame that features populist themes, and proposals designed to rebuild the middle class, offers progressives important message opportunities. These frames also demonstrate broad appeal to quintessential base and swing groups, allowing for effective targeting among turnout targets like Democrats, young voters, and women, as well as persuasion targets, like independents.

Ibid.

Lake Research Partners

Economic Messaging August 2012

Republican Message Frame

Republicans say Obama has failed. 23 million people are in need of work because hes burdening the economy with wasted spending, big deficits, more regulations, and higher taxes. No wonder business isnt creating jobs. We say its time for new leadership. We need more freedom, not more regulation. Lower deficits, not more spending. More jobs, not more taxes. We need to roll back the regulations blocking production of oil, coal, gas, and other energy right here in the U.S. Repeal Obamacare, lower taxes, and free up businesses to create jobs. Cut spending and move to a balanced budget. Its small business, not government, that will get America going again.

Democratic Economic Message Frames

Populism and Jobs:
Democrats say that to fix our economy, we need to rebuild the middle class. Republicans want more tax cuts for the rich and companies that ship jobs overseas. That doesnt work. Instead, create good jobs by making things in America again. Put multinational corporations on notice you want to sell here, youve got to produce here. End the unfair trade deals and crack down on offshore tax dodges. Invest in areas vital to our economy innovation and research, education, rebuilding our decaying infrastructureand pay for it by getting millionaires and big corporations to pay their fair share. Rebuild the middle class and revive the economy. 47% Dems (33% strong) to 42% GOP (31% strong)

Populism and Fairness:

Democrats say the middle class is disappearing, while the richest clean up. Republicans want billions more in tax breaks for the wealthy, paid for by cuts in Medicare and education. Thats wrong. We need to take on the special interests that are rigging the rules. Raise the minimum wage. Stop rewarding CEOs for cooking the books. Empower workers to bargain for a fair share of the profits they help produce. Invest in areas vital to our economyinnovation, education, rebuilding our decaying infrastructureand pay for it by getting millionaires and big corporations to pay their fair share. This economy needs to work for Americans who work hard and play by the rules. 47% Dems (32% strong) to 41% GOP (27% strong)

GOPs Wrong Priorities:

Democrats say our choice couldnt be clearer. Our top priority should be good jobs to rebuild the middle class. But Republicans want to give millionaires another tax cut, and pay for it by raising taxes on the middle class and gutting Medicare and education. Thats just plain wrong. We should invest in areas vital to our economy research and innovation, educationand rebuild our decaying infrastructure: our roads, bridges, schools, and sewers. Pay for this by closing tax loopholes and asking millionaires and corporations to pay their fair share. Our choices should reflect our values: if you do well in America, you should do right by America. 48% Dems (32% strong) to 41% GOP (28% strong)

Long-Term Investment:
Democrats say we need to move on a bold strategy to get this economy going again, not short-term schemes that only help corporations and the wealthy. But the Republican call for slashing spending while giving more tax breaks to the wealthy has failed before. We need to start now to make investments vital to a strong economyinnovation and research, education, rebuilding our decaying infrastructureroads, sewers, schools, and our outdated energy grid. Lets take half the money we were spending on war and put millions back to work right here in the United States of America, making our country a center for innovation and growth again. 48% Dems (29% strong) to 40% GOP (29% strong)

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Economic Messaging August 2012

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