Technical and Economical

Feasibility Study of Nuclear

Power Plant and Water
Desalination Plant for Jordan

Ned Xoubi, PhD

Jordan Atomic Energy Commission
‫ ھيئــة الطـاقـة النوويـة األردنيـة‬, ‫الدكتور نضال الزعبي‬
A presentation to IAEA Pre-project Experts Mission
June, 6, 2006
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
 OUTLINE

Introduction ..... Jordan

Current Power Generation and Future
Demands

Current Water Situation and Future
Demands

Why Nuclear

Feasibility Study

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

 INTRODUCTION
Total Area: 89,544 sq. km
Land area 88,802 sq. km
About 80% is dessert

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

 POPULATION DENSITY

Population 5,350,000 (2004)

Density #
Governorate (000) (%) / Sq km
Irbid 952 17.8% 606
Jarash 161 3.0% 393
Balqa 356 6.7% 318
Ajlun 123 2.3% 293
Amman 2047 38.3% 270
Zarqa 799 14.9% 168
Madaba 135 2.5% 144
sub total 4573 85.5% 272

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

 FACTS & FIGURES

GDP (million) $12,842 2005

GDP growth rate 12.60% 2004
Inflation Rate 3.40% 2004
GDP per Capita $2,133 2004
Individual Income $2,339 2005
Energy Imports (million) $2,500 2005
As % of GDP 19.5 2005
As % of Imports 23.9 2005

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

 The Big Challenge

Jordan’s political stability and economic

prospects depend heavily on Jordan’s ability to
find realistic solutions to

Rapid increase in Energy Demands

Scarce water resources

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

 Jordan Electricity
Consumption and Demand
Electricity Consumption (GWh)
Electricity 16000
Consumption will 14000
12000
double in 11 years 10000
8000
6000
8,089 (GWh) in 2004 4000
2000
15,077 (GWh) 2015 0
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

We need at least Source MEMR, Jordan

810 MW(e) power plant with 100% availability

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

 Electrical Energy Consumption by Sector 2005
Street Lighting
Others
3%
WaterPumping 2%
15% Houshold
34%
Commercial
15%

Industrial
31%

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

 Total Net Electricity
Generation, 1980-2003
KWh Total Net Electricity Generation (TWh)
per capita / month 90
Jordan
80 Israel
70
Jordan 125 60
Finland
50
40
Israel 737 30
20
10
0
= 4200 / 8200 MW(e) 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Source Energy Information Administration, DOE, USA

We need at least
6 /12 Nuclear power plant (700MW(e) )
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
 Jordan NEPCO electrical production cost vs.

Jordan cost
7

1
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

 WATER CHALENGE

Jordan is one of the ten most water-

deprived countries in the world

A child born in 1960 entered the

country where fresh water available
annually was around 530 CM per
capita
By the year 2025, that amount will
have diminished to 91 CM per capita
a drop of over 80%

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

 A Precious Commodity

The average U.S. citizen has more than 9,000

cubic meters of fresh water available per year,
The average Jordanian citizen has less than
157 CM/year (All uses)

The average Jordanians pays 3% of

GDP/capita for water among the highest
percentages in the world
The rate in Europe and USA is 0.5 - 1.0%
Source WAJ

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

 Water Supply for Household and
Municipal Purposes

Water supply for household and

municipal purposes (MCM), 2004
Region million population per capita
Middle 182.6 3,363,600 54
North 57.2 1,484,800 39
South 36.2 499,800 72
Total 276 5,353,200 52

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

 Projected Water Demand
Total De mand, Avai lable Source s
and De fi cit in MC M
1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
MCM Demand
800
Sources
600
Deficit
400
200
0
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

 Water Cost

O&M cost of water per cubic $0.66

meter based on billed water

Total cost of water per cubic $1.01

meter based on billed water

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

 Groundwater Depletion

F 1280: AWSA-2 OBSERVATION WELL

AZRAQ BASIN
P GE: 323783 P GN : 147863 ALT : 514m TD: 195 Aquifer: Bs+B4 Type: Recorder
-2

-4 SWL (m bgl)

-6
S.W.L [m bgl]

-8

-10

-12

-14

-16
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

DATE

Groundwater depletion due to over exploitation in Azraq Basin

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
 Water Quality
Ec tre n d wi th ti m e i n AW S A15

3000
2500
2000
1500
EC

1000
(

500
0
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
T ime (yrs)

Salinity increase in groundwater due to overexploitation

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

 Project Objective

To conduct a feasibility study aiming at providing

a long term solution for a sustainable source of
electricity and fresh water in Jordan, at an
economical price.

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

Is nuclear power a viable option to fulfill the
energy and water needs of Jordan ?

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

 Study … Comprehensive ….. Credible
…… Solid ……. Clear …….Scientific

Outcome …
Production of a comprehensive report that contains
the eleven outputs which are believed to cover all
aspects of deciding to use nuclear energy in Jordan.
The report should help the decision maker, energy
planners and power generation companies make a
clear decision as to the viability of using nuclear
energy as an energy source.

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

 Study Outputs
1. Criteria for selecting a suitable reactor type
2. Nuclear fuel selection criteria
3. Nuclear power plant design criteria
4. Nuclear plant sitting criteria and available areas
5. Assessment of Jordan qualified technical
manpower, and nuclear knowledge
6. Jordan public and governmental acceptance of
nuclear power

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

 Study Outputs
7. Assessment of regional and international political
positions to building a nuclear power plant in
Jordan
8. Jordan projected future needs of energy demands
9. Economics of using nuclear energy compared to
other conventional energy sources, in light of
increasing fuel prices.
10. Jordan projected future needs of fresh water
demands
11. Jordan economic climate and market willingness
to invest in nuclear power
Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006
 Electricity

Electricity production capacity Analysis

Demand analysis

Energy demand modeling and computations

Electrical Demand projection

Electrical grid map marking

Nuclear cost analysis

Economic modeling

Energy cost comparison

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

 Water

Fresh water resources analysis

Demand analysis

Water demand modeling computations

Demand projection

Desalination !!

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006

Questions

Dr. Xoubi June 6, 2006