TOSHIBA

In the postwar period, Japan and Germany have avowed their firm intentions not to commit military aggression ever again. How would you evaluate their commitments? Do you trust them or not? Why or why not? Discuss by referring to theories in international relations. You may choose either country or both.

Timothy Ang Wei Kiat

A0087112M [Pick the date]

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Germanys re-unification in 1990 has sparked a plethora of speculations regarding her role in the international theatre of politics and the possibility of abrogating her vows of not committing military aggression. Military aggression can be defined as the readiness to attack or confront without any provocation 1, resulting in the loss of territories, and the more important aspect of sovereignty suffered by other nations as clearly depicted in Hitlers conquests in the Second World War. I will posit in this paper that the Realist speculations of a resurgent military German hegemon are weak by illustrating that contemporary Germany resembles a civilian power, which will only use military means jointly with other nations with international legality2; and will employ other alternative civilian means to achieve its aims. The argument also states that any attempts by the German state to achieve her interests through military aggression will be both unfeasible and disadvantageous. This paper will first list the basis of the Realists speculations of a resurgent militaristic Germany. Subsequently, the paper will refute these claims by contrasting the contemporary context with that of the Third Reich, while propagating that the Liberal and Constructivist speculations will be more accurate, focusing mainly on the events and actions after Germanys re-unification to evaluate her postwar pacifist vows.3 As aforementioned, sovereignty is also an integral aspect of the evaluation. With the recent Euro crisis leading to accusations of Germany employing wielding economic means to dominate other European nations, omitting possible economic aggression by Germany will render the evaluation of aggressiveness; albeit non-military; incomplete. Thus, I will also argue that there is no blatant infringement of sovereignty on the part of Germany to demand austerity cuts in exchange for bailout funds, further cementing the argument of a Germany that has no blatant hegemonic aims. According to Neo-Realism, Germanys pacifist vows cannot be trusted for the following reasons. Firstly, there is no equivalent of a state governing the international relations, which is aptly dubbed by the term anarchy4. Secondly, states are all power maximisers.5 As such, the world will be perpetually embroiled in conflict. This implies that there is no certainty in
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According to Oxford dictionaries, www.oxforddictionaries.com Hanns W. Maull, Europe and the New Balance of Global Order, International Affairs, Vol. 81, No. 4, Britain and Europe: Continuity and Change (Jul., 2005), p. 781-782 3 The rationale for concentrating on post re-unification events and evidence is due to the fact that prior to 1990, both West and East Germanys foreign policies were very much influenced by the US and the USSR respectively. Evaluation of either Germanys foreign policies for military aggression will be rather pointless. 4 Nishizaki, Yoshinori. PS1101E Lecture Slides (War & Conflicts in International Relations), #21, 7th March 2012 5 Nishizaki, Yoshinori. PS1101E Lecture Slides (War & Conflicts in International Relations), #23, 7th March 2012

the international stage and there can be no way of ascertaining if Germany vows were merely lip-service6, resulting in a security dilemma due to game theory.7 Classical Realism also espouses that humans are innately selfish and power grabbers; it is such individuals who will run the state and try achieving power at the expense of other states, resulting in conflicts.8 Hitler is one such man in German history. With the advent of a new Right movement in the political scene in Germany that consists of intellectuals calling for the need for Germans to stop being obsessed with remedying the Holocaust9, and the recent discovery of a Neo-Nazi cell that existed in Germany for a decade10, seemingly proves the bad human nature that Hobbes had claimed.11 The point that Brigitte Seebacher-Brandt, wife of the former Chancellor of West Germany Willy Brandt, who had knelt in contrition in Warsaw; is an advocate of the new Right movement has not been lost on many.12 As such, no one will be able to stop Germany should she wish to turn militaristic. The fact that Germany had done so less than a century ago gives rise to the possibility of her repeating her past transgressions. However, Realist speculations have yet to show themselves distinctively after more than 2 decades of post re-unification. The contemporary context does point to the relatively greater accuracy of Liberalist and Constructivist views. In the aspect Germanys military (Bundeswehr), one must note that the Bundeswehr is under the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Any overseas deployment of the Bundeswehr is done under the command of NATO, a far cry from the unilateral deployment by Nazi Germany or what the Realists would expect. During the first Gulf war, Germany had shown to be reluctant to even provide a supporting role to troops from other NATO nations.13 There are also doubts as to the competency and deployment capability of the Bundeswehr.14 If the Bundeswehr has problems even keeping up with her NATO allies on overseas deployment, it is arguable that it is not even be feasible for Germany to engage on any unilateral military offensive on her own. Moreover, Germany is surrounded by neighbours
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Roberta N. Haar, Nation states as schizophrenics: Germany and Japan as post Cold-War actors, ( Praeger Publishers, 2001), p.30 7 Nishizaki, Yoshinori. PS1101E Lecture Slides (War & Conflicts in International Relations), #37, 7th March 2012 8 Nishizaki, Yoshinori. PS1101E Lecture Slides (War & Conflicts in International Relations), #14, 7th March 2012 9 Jacob Heilbrunn, Germany's New Right, Foreign Affairs , Vol. 75, No. 6 (Nov. - Dec., 1996), p.81 10 BBC, German neo-Nazi threat discussed at top-level meeting, November 2011 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15790617 11 Nishizaki, Yoshinori. PS1101E Lecture Slides (War & Conflicts in International Relations), #19, 7th March 2012 12 Heilbrunn, Germanys new right, p.81 13 Haar, Nation states as schizophrenics, p.30 14 The Local : Germanys news in English, Army admits shooting & driving problems, June 2011, http://www.thelocal.de/national/20110623-35851.html

who possess nuclear weapons, whereas she herself has no intention of even acquiring any. The most recent development will be the cessation of mandatory military conscription and the aim of reducing the number of troops to 185,000.15 All this goes against the Realist claims that Germany will focus on building up her military to achieve her interests. Not only is there an absence of a security dilemma between Germany and her neighbours, as predicted by Realism where states will engage in an arms race with one another out of fear16, ironically, there is a scaling back of military personnel. 185,000 troops is not even proportionate to Germanys size and her geopolitics, where central locality means more fronts to defend in the event of a war, proving that Germanys operational power is below than what her structural power allows, hence, a civilian power. Germany is making all these decisions even in the face of an increasingly belligerent Russia17 whom she had fought twice in the previous century. This trend of self- emancipation casts dark doubts over the accuracy of the Realist predictions. Moreover, the trend of Germanys politics further weakens the basis of Realist predictions of possible German military aggression. In the fascist regime of the Third Reich, the only functioning political party was the National Socialist Party. Military and political decisions were made unilaterally in the absence of a system of checks and balances against the state. However, contemporary Germany has a democracy in place with a powerful judiciary that has the authority to counter decisions made by incumbent governments. The legality of military deployment hinges upon the German Basic Law Article 24.18 It was only after 1994, that the Constitutional Court ruled that Article 24 allowed the deployment of Bundeswehr to regions out of NATOs defence area, could the Bundeswehr be deployed in UN operations.19 Moreover, the new Right movement aforementioned is only a small minority in the domestic politics of Germany.20 On the international stage, Germany is also a member of the European Union (EU). According to Constructivism, in the international stage of politics, how each country perceives and reacts to another is dependent on their previous past encounters.21 Critics may capitalize this and claim that victim nations of Germanys past transgressions
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The Local : Germanys news in English, Bundeswehr begins new era as conscription ends, July 2011 http://www.thelocal.de/national/20110704-36069.html 16 Nishizaki, Yoshinori. PS1101E Lecture Slides (War & Conflicts in International Relations), #28, 7th March 2012 17 The Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008. 18 Andrei Markovits and Simon Reich, The German Predicament, ( Cornell: Cornell University Press, 1997),p.142 19 Ibid 20 BBC 2 seats 21 Nishizaki, Yoshinori. PS1101E Lecture Slides (Liberalism & Constructivism in International Relations), #38, 13th March 2012

were bound to view Germany was a possible resurgent power. Granted, this will be true only if there is no EU in place to facilitate good relationships between Germany and other EU members and obtaining warm peace as advocated by Liberalism. The issue of deception aforementioned is substantially addressed in the transparency inherent in such supranational institutions. Realists may counter argue by saying that Germany may withdraw from the EU at any time just like they had done so previously from the League of Nations in 1933.22 These Realist claims are limited on two counts. The first being it will be more economically advantageous for Germany to stay within the EU than leave, given that Germanys economy relies on exports, a complex interdependence that reduces the possibility of war.23 The second will be that while there may be the possibility of withdrawal, the probability of such a possibility happening is indeed negligent as Germanys currency, military and her politics are tied to the EU. The Realist prediction of military aggression by Germany is further weakened by the Holocaust inflicted guilt and the political power of the masses. As Klaus Kinkel, then foreign minister aptly summed the Holocaust guilt, The past will not release us.24 Generations of postwar Germans have been struggling to come to terms with their predecessors actions during the Holocaust.25 Gone are the frenzied fervor and Nazi salutes of the masses to the cries of Totaler Krieg by Goebbels.26 27 Even during the formation of the Bundeswehr, deliberate attempts were made to modify the code of discipline, whereby it was no longer obeying orders per se, but to also listen to their inner conscience.28 The fact that Germany is a democracy also means that the people are able to vote out governments which they deem as running contrary to their relatively pacifist views. The most classic example to depict the pacifist views of the masses is the voluntary resignation of the President, Horst Khler, whose suggestions that the Bundeswehr be used in the future to protect Germanys economic interests was met with opposition. As such, the contexts of both Nazi and contemporary Germany contrast starkly, further propagating the argument that Germany had held her vows of no military aggression and can be trusted to continue the pacifist path.
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Nishizaki, Yoshinori. PS1101E Lecture Slides (War & Conflicts in International Relations), #10, 7th March 2012 Nishizaki, Yoshinori. PS1101E Lecture Slides (Liberalism & Constructivism in International Relations), #23, 13th March 2012 24 Markovits and Reich, The German Predicament, opening page 25 This has become a topic of debate on its own. The novel, The Reader by Bernhard Schlink, addresses this struggle to understand. 26 Totaler Krieg means total war. 27 th Some 200,000 germans demonstrated on 26 January 1991 to protest against the Gulf War. 28 Stuart Parkes, Understanding contemporary Germany, ( Routledge Publishing, 1997), p. 130

Having evaluated and positively affirming Germanys pacifist vows, I will now delve on the recent allegations made by some EU nations that Germany, as a civilian power, is using economic means in an aggressive manner to shape European politics to the German tune, infringing on sovereignty. One must realise that the main aim of the demands of austerity cuts and greater economic integration is to ensure that no country leaves the Euro, thereby retaining the Euros credibility. Overspending by governments is partially the reason for the Euro crisis. In 2010, Greek deficit was 13.7%, more than fourfold the acceptable limit agreed by EU nations.29 Moreover, since Greece joined the Euro in 2001, wages have risen by 32% compared with that of Germanys, making Greece economically uncompetitive. It will be unfair to accuse Germany of using bailout funds todemand austerity cuts and infringe on the sovereignty of the debt-ridden nations as the aim was to ensure that these countries were economically competitive. Likewise, the new EU fiscal treaty to rein overblown budgets was designed to prevent similar financial crisises again.30 Allegations of Germanys infringement of sovereignty can be further refuted by the fact that France had also played a huge role in the shaping of such measures. If one were to go back to the Maastricht Treaty of 1993, Germany had gave up its strong Deutschmark currency and join the single currency system with other EU states,31 which is hardly a reasonable course of action for a state who has hegemonic means. In conclusion, based on the evidence aforementioned, Germany has kept its pacifist vows and it is reasonable to trust her in keeping them. I predict that Germany will continue to tread carefully as a civilian power in international politics. It is highly improbable that her foreign policys careful tread will transform into an assertive goose march of German troops into European cities as they did 70 years ago. 1995 Herzog soft power

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BBC, Timeline: The unfolding eurozone crisis, Feb 2012 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-13856580 30 BBC, Q&A: EU fiscal treaty to control eurozone budgets, March 2012 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16057252 31 Andrei S. Markovits, Simon Reich and Frank Westermann, Germany: Hegemonic Power and Economic Gain?, Review of International Political Economy , Vol. 3, No. 4 ,(1996), p. 706