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Introduction

The process of estimating oil and gas reserves for a producing field continues
throughout the life of the field. There is always uncertainty in making such
estimates. The level of uncertainty is affected by the following factors:
1. Reservoir type,
2. Source of reservoir energy,
3. Quantity and quality of the geological, engineering, and geophysical data,
4. Assumptions adopted when making the estimate,
5. Available technology, and
6. Experience and knowledge of the evaluator.

The magnitude of uncertainty, however, decreases with time until the economic
limit is reached and the ultimate recovery is realized, see Figure 1.















Figure 1: Magnitude of uncertainty in reserves estimates

The oil and gas reserves estimation methods can be grouped into the following
categories:
1. Analogy,
2. Volumetric,
3. Decline analysis,
4. Material balance calculations for oil reservoirs,
5. Material balance calculations for gas reservoirs,
6. Reservoir simulation.





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In the early stages of development, reserves estimates are restricted to the
analogy and volumetric calculations. The analogy method is applied by comparing
factors for the analogous and current fields or wells. A close-to-abandonment
analogous field is taken as an approximate to the current field. This method is most
useful when running the economics on the current field; which is supposed to be an
exploratory field.
The volumetric method, on the other hand, entails determining the areal extent
of the reservoir, the rock pore volume, and the fluid content within the pore
volume. This provides an estimate of the amount of hydrocarbons-in-place. The
ultimate recovery, then, can be estimated by using an appropriate recovery factor.
Each of the factors used in the calculation above have inherent uncertainties that,
when combined, cause significant uncertainties in the reserves estimate.
As production and pressure data from a field become available, decline analysis
and material balance calculations, become the predominant methods of calculating
reserves. These methods greatly reduce the uncertainty in reserves estimates;
however, during early depletion, caution should be exercised in using them. Decline
curve relationships are empirical, and rely on uniform, lengthy production periods.
It is more suited to oil wells, which are usually produced against fixed bottom-hole
pressures. In gas wells, however, wellhead back-pressures usually fluctuate,
causing varying production trends and therefore, not as reliable.
The most common decline curve relationship is the constant percentage decline
(exponential). With more and more low productivity wells coming on stream, there
is currently a swing toward decline rates proportional to production rates
(hyperbolic and harmonic). Although some wells exhibit these trends, hyperbolic or
harmonic decline extrapolations should only be used for these specific cases. Over-
exuberance in the use of hyperbolic or harmonic relationships can result in
excessive reserves estimates.
Material balance calculation is an excellent tool for estimating gas reserves. If a
reservoir comprises a closed system and contains single-phase gas, the pressure in
the reservoir will decline proportionately to the amount of gas produced.
Unfortunately, sometimes bottom water drive in gas reservoirs contributes to the
depletion mechanism, altering the performance of the non-ideal gas law in the
reservoir. Under these conditions, optimistic reserves estimates can result.
When calculating reserves using any of the above methods, two calculation
procedures may be used: deterministic and/or probabilistic. The deterministic
method is by far the most common. The procedure is to select a single value for
each parameter to input into an appropriate equation, to obtain a single answer.
The probabilistic method, on the other hand, is more rigorous and less commonly
used. This method utilizes a distribution curve for each parameter and, through the
use of Monte Carlo Simulation; a distribution curve for the answer can be
developed. Assuming good data, a lot of qualifying information can be derived from




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the resulting statistical calculations, such as the minimum and maximum values,
the mean (average value), the median (middle value), the mode (most likely
value), the standard deviation and the percentiles, see Figures 2 and 3.


Figure 1: Measures of central tendency




Figure 3: Percentiles

The probabilistic methods have several inherent problems. They are affected by
all input parameters, including the most likely and maximum values for the
parameters. In such methods, one can not back calculate the input parameters
associated with reserves. Only the end result is known but not the exact value of
any input parameter. On the other hand, deterministic methods calculate reserve
values that are more tangible and explainable. In these methods, all input
parameters are exactly known; however, they may sometimes ignore the variability




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and uncertainty in the input data compared to the probabilistic methods which allow
the incorporation of more variance in the data.
A comparison of the deterministic and probabilistic methods, however, can
provide quality assurance for estimating hydrocarbon reserves; i.e. reserves are
calculated both deterministically and probabilistically and the two values are
compared. If the two values agree, then confidence on the calculated reserves is
increased. If the two values are away different, the assumptions need to be
reexamined.








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Analogy


The analogy method is applied by comparing the following factors for the
analogous and current fields or wells:
Recovery Factor (RF),
Barrels per Acre-Foot (BAF), and
Estimated Ultimate Recovery (EUR)

The RF of a close-to-abandonment analogous field is taken as an approximate value
for another field. Similarly, the BAF, which is calculated by the following equation,

( )( )
( )
( )
RF
t
B
t
S
= BAF
o
o

1 1 7758

is assumed to be the same for the analogous and current field or well. Comparing
EURs is done during the exploratory phase. It is also useful when calculating
proved developed reserves.
Analogy is most useful when running the economics on a yet-to-be-drilled
exploratory well. Care, however, should be taken when applying analogy technique.
For example, care should be taken to make sure that the field or well being used
for analogy is indeed analogous. That said, a dolomite reservoir with volatile crude
oil will never be analogous to a sandstone reservoir with black oil. Similarly, if your
calculated EUR is twice as high as the EUR from the nearest 100 wells, you had
better check your assumptions.







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Volumetric

The volumetric method entails determining the physical size of the reservoir, the
pore volume within the rock matrix, and the fluid content within the void space.
This provides an estimate of the hydrocarbons-in-place, from which ultimate
recovery can be estimated by using an appropriate recovery factor. Each of the
factors used in the calculation have inherent uncertainties that, when combined,
cause significant uncertainties in the reserves estimate. Figure 4 is a typical
geological net pay isopach map that is often used in the volumetric method.













Figure 4: A typical geological net pay isopach map

The estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) of an oil reservoir, STB, is given by:

( ) RF t N EUR =

Where N(t) is the oil in place at time t, STB, and RF is the recovery factor, fraction.
The volumetric method for calculating the amount of oil in place (N) is given by the
following equation:

( )
( ) t
B
t
S
V
= N(t)
o
o b

Where:

N(t) = oil in place at time t, STB
V
b
= bulk reservoir volume, RB = 7758 A h
7758 = RB/acre-ft
A = reservoir area, acres




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H = average reservoir thickness, ft
= average reservoir porosity, fraction
S
o
(t) = average oil saturation, fraction
B
o
(p) = oil formation volume factor at reservoir pressure p, RB/STB

Similarly, for a gas reservoir, the volumetric method is given by:

( ) RF t G EUR =

Where G(t) is the gas in place at time t, SCF, and RF is the recovery factor, fraction.
The volumetric method for calculating the amount of gas in place (G) is given by
the following equation:
( )
( ) t
B
t
S
V
= G(t)
g
g b

Where:

G(t) = gas in place at time t, SCF
V
b
= bulk reservoir volume, CF = 43560 A h
43560 = CF/acre-ft
A = reservoir area, acres
h = average reservoir thickness, ft
= average reservoir porosity, fraction
S
g
(t) = average gas saturation, fraction
B
g
(p) = gas formation volume factor at reservoir pressure p, CF/SCF

Note that the reservoir area (A) and the recovery factor (RF) are often subject to
large errors. They are usually determined from analogy or correlations. The
following examples should clarify the errors that creep in during the calculations of
oil and gas reserves.

Example #1: Given the following data for the Hout oil field in Saudi Arabia

Area = 26,700 acres
Net productive thickness = 49 ft
Porosity = 8%
Average S
wi
= 45%
Initial reservoir pressure, p
i
= 2980 psia
Abandonment pressure, p
a
= 300 psia
B
o
at p
i
= 1.68 bbl/STB
B
o
at p
a
= 1.15 bbl/STB




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S
g
at p
a
= 34%
S
or
after water invasion = 20%

The following quantities will be calculated:

1. Initial oil in place
2. Oil in place after volumetric depletion to abandonment pressure
3. Oil in place after water invasion at initial pressure
4. Oil reserve by volumetric depletion to abandonment pressure
5. Oil reserve by full water drive
6. Discussion of results


Solution:

Lets start by calculating the reservoir bulk volume:

V
b
= 7758 x A x h = 7758 x 26,700 x 49 = 10.15 MMM bbl

1. The initial oil in place is given by:

( )
B
S
V
=
N
oi
wi b
i
1

this yields:

( )
STB MM 266
1.68
5 0. (0.08)
10
x 10.15
=
N
9
i

4 1



2. The oil in place after volumetric depletion to abandonment pressure is given by:

( )
B
S
-
S
- 1
V
= N
o
g w b

this yields:

( )
STB MM 148
1.15
0.34) - 0.45 - 1 (0.08)
10
x 10.15
=
N
9
1


3. The oil in place after water invasion at initial reservoir pressure is given by:





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B
S V
= N
o
or b

this yields:

STB MM 97
1.68
0.20 (0.08)
10
x 10.15
=
N
9
2


4. The oil reserve by volumetric depletion:

( ) ( ) STB MM 118 =
10
x 148 - 266 =
N
-
N
6
1 i


i.e. RF = 118/266 = 44%


5. The oil reserve by full water drive

( ) ( ) STB MM 169 =
10
x 97 - 266 =
N
-
N
6
2 i


i.e. RF = 169/266 = 64%

6. Discussion of results: For oil reservoirs under volumetric control; i.e. no water
influx, the produced oil must be replaced by gas the saturation of which
increases as oil saturation decreases. If S
g
is the gas saturation and B
o
the oil
formation volume factor at abandonment pressure, then oil in place at
abandonment pressure is given by:

( )
B
S
-
S
- 1
V
= N
o
g w b

On the other hand, for oil reservoirs under hydraulic control, where there is no
appreciable decline in reservoir pressure, water influx is either edge-water drive or
bottom-water drive. In edge-water drive, water influx is inward and parallel to
bedding planes. In bottom-water drive, water influx is upward where the producing
oil zone is underlain by water. In this case, the oil remaining at abandonment is
given by:

B
S V
= N
o
or b

This concludes the solution.




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Example #2: Given the following data for the Bell gas field

Area = 160 acres
Net productive thickness = 40 ft
Initial reservoir pressure = 3250 psia
Porosity = 22%
Connate water = 23%
Initial gas FVF = 0.00533 ft
3
/SCF
Gas FVF at 2500 psia = 0.00667 ft
3
/SCF
Gas FVF at 500 psia = 0.03623 ft
3
/SCF
S
gr
after water invasion = 34%

The following quantities will be calculated:

1. Initial gas in place
2. Gas in place after volumetric depletion to 2500 psia
3. Gas in place after volumetric depletion to 500 psia
4. Gas in place after water invasion at 3250 psia
5. Gas in place after water invasion at 2500 psia
6. Gas in place after water invasion at 500 psia
7. Gas reserve by volumetric depletion to 500 psia
8. Gas reserve by full water drive; i.e. at 3250 psia
9. Gas reserve by partial water drive; i.e. at 2500 psia
10. Gas reserve by full water drive if there is one un-dip well
11. Discussion of results


Solution:

Lets start by calculating the reservoir bulk volume:

V
b
= 43,560 x A x h = 43,560 x 160 x 40 = 278.784 MM ft
3


1. Initial gas in place is given by:

( )
B
S
- 1
V
=
G
gi
wi
i
b
i


this yields:





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( )
SCF MM 8860 =
0.00533
0.23) - 1 (0.22)
10
x 278.784
=
G
6
i


2. Gas in place after volumetric depletion to 2500 psia:

( )
SCF MM 7080 =
0.00667
0.23) - 1 (0.22)
10
x 278.784
=
G
6
1


3. Gas in place after volumetric depletion to 500 psia:


( )
SCF MM 1303 =
0.003623
0.23) - 1 (0.22)
10
x 278.784
=
G
6
2


4. Gas in place after water invasion at 3250 psia:

SCF MM 3912 =
0.00533
(0.34) (0.22)
10
x 278.784
=
G
6
3


5. Gas in place after water invasion at 2500 psia:

SCF MM 3126 =
0.00667
(0.34) (0.22)
10
x 278.784
=
G
6
4


6. Gas in place after water invasion at 500 psia:

SCF MM 576 =
0.03623
(0.34) (0.22)
10
x 278.784
=
G
6
5


7. Gas reserve by volumetric depletion to 500 psia:

( ) SCF MM 7557 =
10
x 1303 - 8860 =
G
-
G
6
2 i


i.e. RF = 7557/8860 = 85%


8. Gas reserve by water drive at 3250 psia (full water drive):

( ) SCF MM 4948 =
10
x 3912 - 8860 =
G
-
G
6
3 i





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i.e. RF = 4948/8860 = 56%


9. Gas reserve by water drive at 2500 psia (partial water drive):

( ) SCF MM 5734 =
10
x 3126 - 8860 =
G
-
G
6
4 i


i.e. RF = 5734/8860 = 65%


10. Gas reserve by water drive at 3250 psia if there is one un-dip well:

( ) ( ) SCF MM 2474 =
10
x 3912 - 8860
2
1
=
G
-
G
2
1
6
3 i


i.e. RF = 2474/8860 = 28%


11. Discussion of results

The RF for volumetric depletion to 500 psia (no water drive) is calculated to be
85%. On the other hand, the RF for partial water drive is 65%, and for the full water
drive is 56%. This can be explained as follows: As water invades the reservoir, the
reservoir pressure is maintained at a higher level than if there were no water
encroachment. This leads to higher abandonment pressures for water-drive
reservoirs. Recoveries, however, are lower because the main mechanism of
production in gas reservoirs is depletion or gas expansion. In water-drive gas
reservoirs, it has been found that gas recoveries can be increased by:

1. Outrunning technique: This is accomplished by increasing gas production rates.
This technique has been attempted in Bierwang Field in West Germany where
the field production rate has been increased from 50 to 75 MM SCF/D, and they
found that the ultimate recovery increased from 69 to 74%.
2. Co-production technique: This technique is defined as the simultaneous
production of gas and water, see Fig. 1. In this process, as down-dip wells
begin to be watered out, they are converted to high-rate water producers, while
the up-dip wells are maintained on gas production. This technique enhances
production as follows:




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The high-rate down-dip water producers act as a pressure sink for the
water. This retards water invasion into the gas zone, therefore
prolonging its productive life.
The high-rate water production lowers the average reservoir pressure,
allowing for more gas expansion and therefore more gas production.
When the average reservoir pressure is lowered, the immobile gas in the
water-swept portion of the reservoir could become mobile and hence
producible. It has been reported that this technique has increased gas
production from62% to 83% in Eugene Island Field of Louisiana.

This concludes the solution.






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Decline Curves

A decline curve of a well is simply a plot of the wells production rate on the y-
axis versus time on the x-axis. The plot is usually done on a semilog paper; i.e. the
y-axis is logarithmic and the x-axis is linear. When the data plots as a straight line,
it is modeled with a constant percentage decline exponential decline. When the
data plots concave upward, it is modeled with a hyperbolic decline. A special case
of the hyperbolic decline is known as harmonic decline.
The most common decline curve relationship is the constant percentage decline
(exponential). With more and more low productivity wells coming on stream, there
is currently a swing toward decline rates proportional to production rates
(hyperbolic and harmonic). Although some wells exhibit these trends, hyperbolic or
harmonic decline extrapolations should only be used for these specific cases. Over-
exuberance in the use of hyperbolic or harmonic relationships can result in
excessive reserves estimates. Figure 5 is an example of a production graph with
exponential and harmonic extrapolations.














Figure 5: Decline curve of an oil well

Decline curves are the most common means of forecasting production. They
have many advantages:
Data is easy to obtain,
They are easy to plot,
They yield results on a time basis, and
They are easy to analyze.





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If the conditions affecting the rate of production of the well are not changed by
outside influences, the curve will be fairly regular, and, if projected, will furnish
useful knowledge as to the future production of the well.

Exponential Decline

As mentioned above, in the exponential decline, the wells production data
plots as a straight line on a semilog paper. The equation of the straight line
on the semilog paper is given by:

Dt
i
e q q

=


Where:

q = wells production rate at time t, STB/day
q
i
= wells production rate at time 0, STB/day
D = nominal exponential decline rate, 1/day
t = time, day


The following table summarizes the equations used in exponential decline.

Exponential Decline b = 0
Description Equation
Rate
Dt
i
e q q

=
Cumulative Oil Production
D
q q
N
i
p

=
Nominal Decline Rate
( )
e
D D = 1 ln
i
i
e
q
q q
D

=
Effective Decline Rate
D
e
e D

=1
Life
( )
D
q q
t
i
/ ln
=


Example #3: A well has declined from 100 BOPD to 96 BOPD during a one
month period. Assuming exponential decline, predict the rate after 11 more




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months and after 22.5 months. Also predict the amount of oil produced after
one year.

Solution:

month t
BOPD q
BOPD q
i
1
96
100
=
=
=


1. Calculate the effective decline rate per month:

month
q
q q
D
i
i
e
/ 04 . 0
100
96 100
=

=

2. Calculate the nominal decline rate per month:

( ) ( ) ( ) onth 0.040822/m 96 . 0 ln 04 . 0 1 ln 1 ln = = = =
e
D D

3. Calculate the rate after 11 more months:

( )
BOPD e e q q
x Dt
i
27 . 61 100
12 040822 . 0
= = =



4. Calculate the rate after 22.5 months:

( )
POPD e e q q
x Dt
i
91 . 39 100
5 . 22 040822 . 0
= = =



5. Calculate the nominal decline rate per year:

ar 0.48986/ye 12 x onth 0.040822/m = = D

6. Calculate the cumulative oil produced after one year:

( )
STB Y D
Y
D STB
D
q q
N
i
p
858 , 28 / 365 *
/ 489864 . 0
/ 27 . 61 100
=

=

This completes the solution.







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Hyperbolic Decline

Alternatively, if the wells production data plotted on a semilog paper
concaves upward, then it is modeled with a hyperbolic decline. The equation
of the hyperbolic decline is given by:

( ) b
i i
t bD q q
1
1

+ =

Where:

q = wells production rate at time t, STB/day
q
i
= wells production rate at time 0, STB/day
D
i
= initial nominal exponential decline rate (t = 0), 1/day
b = hyperbolic exponent
t = time, day

The following table summarizes the equations used in hyperbolic decline:

Hyperbolic Decline b > 0, b 1
Description Equation
Rate
( ) b
i i
t bD q q
1
1

+ =
Cumulative Oil Production
( )
( )
b b
i
i
b
i
p
q q
b D
q
N

=
1 1
1

Nominal Decline Rate
( ) [ ] 1 1
1
=
b
ei i
D
b
D
i
i
ei
q
q q
D

=
Effective Decline Rate
D
e
e D

=1
Life
( )
i
b
i
bD
q q
t
1 /
=


Example #4: Given the following data:

9 . 0
/ 5 . 0
100
=
=
=
b
year D
BOPD q
i
i





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Assuming hyperbolic decline, predict the amount of oil produced for five
years.

Solution:

1. Calculate the well flow rate at the end of each year for five years using:

( ) ( )( ) ( ) BOPD t xt x t bD q q b
i i
9 . 0
1
9 . 0
1 1
45 . 0 1 100 5 . 0 9 . 0 1 100 1

+ = + = + =

2. Calculate the cumulative oil produced at the end of each year for five
years using:

( )
( )
( )
( )
( ) ( )
( )
( )
1 . 0
9 . 0 1 9 . 0 1
9 . 0
1 1
1.584893 * 460598.9
365 100
9 . 0 1 5 . 0
100
1
q
year
days
q
q q
b D
q
N
b b
i
i
b
i
p
=

=




3. Form the following table:

Year Rate at End of Year
Cum.
Production
Yearly
Production
0
1
2
3
4
5
100
66.176
49.009
38.699
31.854
26.992
0
29,524
50,248
66,115
78,914
89,606
-
29,524
20,724
15,867
12,799
10,692

This completes the solution.

Harmonic Decline

A special case of the hyperbolic decline is known as harmonic decline,
where b is taken to be equal to 1. The following table summarizes the
equations used in harmonic decline:




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Harmonic Decline b = 1
Description Equation
Rate
t bD
q
q
i
i
+
=
1

Cumulative Oil Production
q
q
D
q
N
i
i
i
p
ln =
Nominal Decline Rate
ei
ei
i
D
D
D

=
1

Effective Decline Rate
i
i
ei
q
q q
D

=
Life
( )
i
i
D
q q
t
1 /
=









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Material Balance Calculations for Oil Reservoirs

A general material balance equation that can be applied to all reservoir types was
first developed by Schilthuis in 1936. Although it is a tank model equation, it can
provide great insight for the practicing reservoir engineer. It is written from start of
production to any time (t) as follows:

Expansion of oil in the oil zone +
Expansion of gas in the gas zone +
Expansion of connate water in the oil and gas zones +
Contraction of pore volume in the oil and gas zones +
Water influx + Water injected + Gas injected =
Oil produced + Gas produced + Water produced

Mathematically, this can be written as:

( ) ( ) ( )
( )
( )
w wi
t ti g gi ti gi
t
wi
f
Iw Ig ti gi e I I
t
wi
t p soi g w p p p
C S
N - + G - + + p
NB GB B B B B
1 -
S
C
+ + + + + p
NB GB W W G B B
1 -
S
= + - +
N N W B R R B B
| |

|
\ .
| |

|
\ .


Where:

N = initial oil in place, STB
N
p
= cumulative oil produced, STB
G = initial gas in place, SCF
G
I
= cumulative gas injected into reservoir, SCF
G
p
= cumulative gas produced, SCF
W
e
= water influx into reservoir, bbl
W
I
= cumulative water injected into reservoir, STB
W
p
= cumulative water produced, STB
B
ti
= initial two-phase formation volume factor, bbl/STB = B
oi

B
oi
= initial oil formation volume factor, bbl/STB
B
gi
= initial gas formation volume factor, bbl/SCF
B
t
= two-phase formation volume factor, bbl/STB = B
o
+ (R
soi
- R
so
) B
g

B
o
= oil formation volume factor, bbl/STB
B
g
= gas formation volume factor, bbl/SCF
B
w
= water formation volume factor, bbl/STB
B
Ig
= injected gas formation volume factor, bbl/SCF




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B
Iw
= injected water formation volume factor, bbl/STB
R
soi
= initial solution gas-oil ratio, SCF/STB
R
so
= solution gas-oil ratio, SCF/STB
R
p
= cumulative produced gas-oil ratio, SCF/STB
C
f
= formation compressibility, psia
-1

C
w
= water isothermal compressibility, psia
-1

S
wi
= initial water saturation
p
t
= reservoir pressure drop, psia = p
i
- p(t)
p(t) = current reservoir pressure, psia


The MBE as a Straight Line

Normally, when using the material balance equation, each pressure and the
corresponding production data is considered as being a separate point from
other pressure values. From each separate point, a calculation is made and the
results of these calculations are averaged. However, a method is required to
make use of all data points with the requirement that these points must yield
solutions to the material balance equation that behave linearly to obtain values
of the independent variable. The straight-line method begins with the material
balance written as:

( ) ( ) ( )
( )
f w wi
t ti g gi ti gi
t
wi
Iw Ig e I I
t p soi g w p p p
+
C C S
N - + G - + + p
NB GB B B B B
1 -
S
+ + +
W W G B B
= + - +
N N W B R R B B
| |

|
\ .


Defining the ratio of the initial gas cap volume to the initial oil volume as:

initial gas cap volume
=
initial oil volume
gi
ti
GB
m =
NB


and plugging into the equation yields:

( ) ( ) ( )
( )
f w wi
ti
t ti g gi ti ti
t
gi wi
Iw Ig e I I
t p soi g w p p p
+
C C S
B
N - + Nm - + + Nm p
NB B B B B B
1 -
S B
+ + +
W W G B B
= + - +
N N W B R R B B
| |

|
\ .






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Let:

( )
( )
( )
1
o t ti
ti
g g gi
gi
f w wi
f,w ti t
wi
t p soi g w Iw Ig p p I I
= -
E B B

B
= -
E B B
B

+
C C S
= m B p
E
1 -
S

F = + - + - -
N W W G B R R B B B B
| |
+
|
\ .
(



Thus we obtain:

( )
,
,
e o g f w
o g f w e
F = NE + mNE + NE +
W
N E mE E W = + + +


The following cases are considered:

1. No gas cap, negligible compressibilities, and no water
influx

o
F= NE


2. Negligible compressibilities, and no water influx

o g
g
o o
F= NE NmE
E
F
= N Nm
E E
+
+


Which is written as y = b + x. This would suggest that a plot of F/E
o
as
the y coordinate versus E
g
/E
o
as the x coordinate would yield a straight
line with slope equal to mN and intercept equal to N.

3. Including compressibilities and water influx, let:





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, o g f w
D E mE E = + +

Dividing through by D, we get:

e
F
W
= N +
D D


Which is written as y = b + x. This would suggest that a plot of F/D as
the y coordinate and W
e
/D as the x coordinate would yield a straight line
with slope equal to 1 and intercept equal to N.


Drive Indexes from the MBE

The three major driving mechanisms are:

1. Depletion drive (oil zone oil expansion),
2. Segregation drive (gas zone gas expansion), and
3. Water drive (water zone water influx).

To determine the relative magnitude of each of these driving mechanisms, the
compressibility term in the material balance equation is neglected and the
equation is rearranged as follows:

( ) ( ) ( ) ( )
t ti g gi w t p soi g e p p
N - + G - + - = + -
W W N B B B B B B R R B
(




Dividing through by the right hand side of the equation yields:

( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
w g gi e p
t ti
t p soi g t p soi g t p soi g p p p
- G - N - W W B B B
B B
+ + = 1
+ - + - + -
N N N B R R B B R R B B R R B
( ( (



The terms on the left hand side of equation (3) represent the depletion drive
index (DDI), the segregation drive index (SDI), and the water drive index
(WDI) respectively. Thus, using Pirson's abbreviations, we write:

DDI + SDI + WDI = 1

The following examples should clarify the errors that creep in during the
calculations of oil and gas reserves.




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Example #5: Given the following data for an oil field

Volume of bulk oil zone = 112,000 acre-ft
Volume of bulk gas zone = 19,600 acre-ft
Initial reservoir pressure = 2710 psia
Initial oil FVF = 1.340 bbl/STB
Initial gas FVF = 0.006266 ft
3
/SCF
Initial dissolved GOR = 562 SCF/STB
Oil produced during the interval = 20 MM STB
Reservoir pressure at the end of the interval = 2000 psia
Average produced GOR = 700 SCF/STB
Two-phase FVF at 2000 psia = 1.4954 bbl/STB
Volume of water encroached = 11.58 MM bbl
Volume of water produced = 1.05 MM STB
Water FVF = 1.028 bbl/STB
Gas FVF at 2000 psia = 0.008479 ft
3
/SCF

The following values will be calculated:

1. The stock tank oil initially in place.
2. The driving indexes.
3. Discussion of results.

Solution:

1. The material balance equation is written as:

( ) ( ) ( ) | | ( )
B W
-
W
-
B R
-
R
+
B N
=
B
-
B
G +
B
-
B
N
w p e g soi p t p gi g ti t


Define the ratio of the initial gas cap volume to the initial oil volume as:

NB
GB
= m
ti
gi


we get:

( ) ( ) ( ) | | ( )
B W
-
W
-
B R
-
R
+
B N
=
B
-
B
B
B
Nm +
B
-
B
N
w p e g soi p t p gi g
gi
ti
ti t






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and solve for N, we get:

( ) | | ( )
( ) ( )
B
-
B
B
B
m +
B
-
B
B W
-
W
-
B R
-
R
+
B N
= N
gi g
gi
ti
ti t
w p e g soi p t p


Since:

N
p
= 20 x 10
6
STB
B
t
= 1.4954 bbl/STB
R
p
= 700 SCF/STB
R
soi
= 562 SCF/STB
B
g
= 0.008479 ft
3
/SCF = 0.008479/5.6146 = 0.001510 bbl/SCF
W
e
= 11.58 x 10
6
bbl
W
p
= 1.05 x 10
6
STB
B
w
= 1.028 bbl/STB
B
ti
= 1.34 bbl/STB
m = GB
gi
/NB
ti
= 19,600/112,000 = 0.175
B
gi
= 0.006266 ft
3
/SCF = 0.006266/5.6146 = 0.001116 bbl/SCF

Thus:

( ) ( )
( ) ( )
6
20 1.4954 + 700 - 562 0.001510 - 11.58 - 1.05x1.028
N =
10
1.34
1.4954 - 1.34 + 0.175 0.001510 - 0.001116
0.001116

= 98.97 MM STB
(



2. In terms of drive indexes, the material balance equation is written as:

( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
w g gi e p t ti
t p soi g t p soi g t p soi g p p p
- G - N - W W B B B B B
+ + = 1
+ - + - + -
N N N B R R B B R R B B R R B
( ( (



Thus the depletion drive index (DDI) is given by:

( )
( )
( )
( )
6
t ti
6
t p soi g p
N - 98.97x 1.4954 - 1.34
10 B B
= = 0.45
20x 1.4954 + 700 - 562 0.001510 + - 10 N B R R B
( (




The segregation drive index (SDI) is given by:




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( )
( )
( )
( )
ti
g gi
gi
t p soi g p
6
6
B
Nm -
B B
B
=
+ -
N B R R B

1.34
98.97 x x 0.175x 0.001510 - 0.001116
10
0.001116
= 0.24
20x 1.4954 + 700 - 562 0.001510
10
(

(



The water drive index (WDI) is given by:

( )
( ) | |
( )
( ) | |
0.31 =
0.001510 562 - 700 + 1.4954
10
20x

10
x 1.028 x 1.05 -
10
x 11.58
=

B R
-
R
+
B N
B W
-
W
6
6 6
g soi p t p
w p e


3. The drive mechanisms as calculated in part (2) indicate that when the
reservoir pressure has declined from 2710 psia to 2000 psia, 45% of the
total production was by oil expansion, 31% was by water drive, and 24%
was by gas cap expansion.

This concludes the solution.


Example #6: Given the following data for an oil field

A gas cap reservoir is estimated, from volumetric calculations, to have an
initial oil volume N of 115 x 10
6
STB. The cumulative oil production N
p
and
cumulative gas oil ratio R
p
are listed in the following table as functions of the
average reservoir pressure over the first few years of production. Assume
that p
i
= p
b
= 3330 psia. The size of the gas cap is uncertain with the best
estimate, based on geological information, giving the value of m = 0.4. Is this
figure confirmed by the production and pressure history? If not, what is the
correct value of m?

Pressure Np Rp Bo Rso Bg
psia MM STB SCF/STB BBL/STB SCF/STB bbl/SCF
3330 0 0 1.2511 510 0.00087
3150 3.295 1050 1.2353 477 0.00092
3000 5.903 1060 1.2222 450 0.00096
2850 8.852 1160 1.2122 425 0.00101
2700 11.503 1235 1.2022 401 0.00107
2550 14.513 1265 1.1922 375 0.00113
2400 17.73 1300 1.1822 352 0.00120




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Solution:

Calculate the parameters F, E
o
, E
g
as given by the above equations:

Bt F Eo Eg F/Eo Eg/Eo
BBL/STB MM/RB RB/STB RB/SCF MM/STB
1.2511
1.26566 5.8073 0.014560 0.071902299 398.8534135 4.938344701
1.2798 10.6714 0.028700 0.129424138 371.8272962 4.509551844
1.29805 17.3017 0.046950 0.201326437 368.5128136 4.28810302
1.31883 24.0940 0.067730 0.287609195 355.7353276 4.246407728
1.34475 31.8981 0.093650 0.373891954 340.6099594 3.992439445
1.3718 41.1301 0.120700 0.474555172 340.7626678 3.931691569

The plot of F/E
o
versus E
g
/E
o
is shown next:

Chart Title
y = 58.83x + 108.7
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
3.8 4 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 5 5.2
Eg/Eo
F
/
E
o


Figure 6: F/Eo vs. Eg/Eo Plot

The best fit is expressed by:
108.7 58.83
g
o o
E
F
=
E E
+





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Therefore, N = 108.7 MM STB and m = 58.83/108.7 = 0.54.

This concludes the solution of this problem.


Example #7: Given the following data for an oil field

A gas cap reservoir is estimated, from volumetric calculations, to have an
initial oil volume N of 47 x 10
6
STB. The cumulative oil production N
p
and
cumulative gas oil ratio R
p
are listed in the following table as functions of the
average reservoir pressure over the first few years of production. Other
pertinent data are also supplied. Assume p
i
= p
b
= 3640 psia. The size of the
gas cap is uncertain with the best estimate, based on geological information,
giving the value of m = 0.0. Is this figure confirmed by the production
history? If not, what is the correct value of m?

pi = 3640 psia
Cf = 0.000004 psia-1
Cw = 0.000003 psia-1
Swi = 0.25
Bw = 1.025 psia
m = 0

Pressure Np Gp Bt Rso
psia MM STB MM SCF BBL/STB SCF/STB
3640 0 0 1.464 888
3585 0.79 4.12 1.469 874
3530 1.21 5.68 1.476 860
3460 1.54 7 1.482 846
3385 2.08 8.41 1.491 825
3300 2.58 9.71 1.501 804
3200 3.4 11.62 1.519 779

Bg We Wp Rp F
bbl/SCF MM BBL MM STB SCF/STB MM/RB
0.000892 0 0 0
0.000905 48.81 0.08 5.215189873 0.6114
0.000918 61.187 0.26 4.694214876 1.0713
0.000936 71.32 0.41 4.545454545 1.4291
0.000957 80.293 0.6 4.043269231 1.9567
0.000982 87.564 0.92 3.763565891 2.5753
0.001014 93.211 1.38 3.417647059 3.5294




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Solution:
Calculate the parameters F, E
o
, E
g
, E
f,w
, and D, as given by the above
equations:

Eo Eg Ef,w D F/D We/D
RB/STB RB/SCF RB/SCF MM/STB

0.005000 0.021336323 0.00050996 0.00550996 110.9559779 8858.50351
0.012000 0.042672646 0.00101992 0.01301992 82.28173445 4699.491241
0.018000 0.072215247 0.00166896 0.01966896 72.65677901 3626.017847
0.027000 0.106681614 0.00236436 0.02936436 66.63557762 2734.369147
0.037000 0.147713004 0.00315248 0.04015248 64.1383531 2180.786841
0.055000 0.200233184 0.00407968 0.05907968 59.739895 1577.716738

The plot of F/D versus W
e
/D is shown next. The best fit is expressed by:

0.0071 48.067 6
e
W F
= e
D D
+


Therefore, N = 48 MM STB and m = 0.0071.

This concludes the solution of this problem.

Chart Title
y = 0.0071x + 48.067
59
69
79
89
99
109
119
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000
Eg/Eo
F
/
E
o

Figure 7: F/Eo vs. Eg/Eo Plot