THIS LA NIN A 3C

TOP 3 LA Nina episodes area ~-3C >300 days

STRONGER SIGNAL FALL-SPRING

DUALS

SST Departures (oC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks
During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were near-average across most of the Pacific Ocean.

Historical El Nio and La Nia Episodes

Based on the ONI computed using ERSST.v3b
Highest Lowest

El Nio
NOTE:
After updating the ocean analysis to ERSST.v3b, a new La Nia episode was classified (ASO 1962DJF 1962/63) and two previous La Nia episodes were combined into one single episode (AMJ 1973- MAM 1976).
JAS 1951 - NDJ 1951/52 MAM 1957 MJJ 1958 JJA 1963 DJF 1963/64 MJJ 1965 MAM 1966 OND 1968 MJJ 1969 ASO 1969 DJF 1969/70 AMJ 1972 FMA 1973 ASO 1976 JFM 1977 ASO 1977 - DJF 1977/78 AMJ 1982 MJJ 1983 JAS 1986 JFM 1988 AMJ 1991 JJA 1992 AMJ 1994 FMA 1995 AMJ 1997 AMJ 1998 AMJ 2002 FMA 2003 MJJ 2004 JFM 2005

ONI Value
0.8 1.7 1.0 1.6 1.0 0.8 2.1 0.8 0.8 2.3 1.6 1.8 1.3 2.5 1.5 0.9

La Nina
ASO 1949 FMA 1951 MAM 1954 DJF 1956/57 ASO 1962 DJF 1962/63 MAM 1964 DJF 1964/65 NDJ 1967/68 MAM 1968 JJA 1970 DJF 1971/72 AMJ 1973 MAM 1976 SON 1984 ASO 1985 AMJ 1988 AMJ 1989 ASO 1995 FMA 1996 JJA 1998 MJJ 2000 SON 2000 JFM 2001 ASO 2007 AMJ 2008

ONI Value
-1.7 -2.1 -0.8 -1.1 -0.9 -1.3 -2.0 -1.0 -1.9 -0.7 -1.6 -0.7 -1.4

JAS 2006 - DJF 2006/07 MJJ 2009 MAM 2010

1.1 1.8

CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CLIMATE CHANGE

CLIMATE IS WHAT YOU EXPECT! BUT WEATHER IS WHAT YOU GET!

El Paso climate Change

El Paso, Texas
Micro climates (Franklins) 3 examples SINCE 1994 EL PASO SAW ITS WORST HEAT WAVEWORST FLOOD(2006) AND WORST HAIL STORM(2009 40% of max min temps since 1970 63% of max max temps since 1970 Showing an increase in the number of heavy rain events >2.5 inches (3-4) Growing season 3-5 days longer

Average U.S. temperature increases by 0.5 degrees F

4 warming

2 Waves Enso and AO NA

CLIMATE CHANGE IS MODIFYING CLIMATE VARIABLILITY EUROPE 2009 2010

HOW GW CAN EXIST WITH RECORD COOLING AND DIVERT JET STREAMS

MIN

NAO AO

2009 EL NINO 2010 LA NINA EUROPE 2009 2010 < -2.0

The 1901-2000 average combined land and ocean annual temperature is 13.9C (56.9F), the annually averaged land temperature for the same period is 8.5C (47.3F), and the long-term annually averaged sea surface temperature is 16.1C (60.9F).

Global Top 10 Warmest Years (Jan-Dec) 2010 2005 1998 2003 2002 2009 2006 2007

Anomaly C 0.62 0.62 0.60 0.58 0.58 0.56 0.56 0.55

Anomaly F 1.12 1.12 1.08 1.04 1.04 1.01 1.01 0.99

2004 2001

0.54 0.52

0.97 0.94

This heat is stored in the ocean and not in land acclerates differential albedo .9 vs .1 eats away the edges Then high pressure blocks and changes polar jet pattern GREATER HEAT CAPACITY AND STORAGE

NASA photographs show the minimm Arctic sea ice concentration in 1979 at left and in 2003.Satellite passive microwave data since 1970s indicate a 3% decrease per decade in arctic sea ice extent.

Greenland Seal level

SOME IMPLICATIONS
Warming will impact winter as well as summer Warming will impact night as well as day More precipitation..More drought More rain will come in intense rainfall events Higher stream flow, more flooding Latent and Sensible Heatrich get rich (floods) and the poor get poorer (drought)

SOME NOAA TALKING POINTS 1. 2005/2010 was the warmest on record. 3. Summer of 2006 warmest on record. 4. ENSO brings long term heat transferf and climate stability and the frequency may increase due to GW. 5. Weather is becoming more extreme. 6. Current Climate models cannot credibly produce accurate future scenarios and are poor in modeling the greenhouse gases especially water vapor. EVIDENCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MAN IS ART OF THE EQUATION MODIFYING THE CLIMATE ENVIRONMENT.
THE WEST AND NORTHERN LATITUDES ARE WARMING THE FASTEST

Climate Surprises
Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation (Glaciers) Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Increase Tropical rainfall reducing tropical salinity. TIPPING POINTS(the straw that broke... Water Vapor is the most import GH Gas Arctic and West are warming fasterCH4 will be the next big player.

RECENT WARMING CLIMATE CHAN

WATER VAPOR IS THE MOST IMPORTANT GREENHOUSE GAS!

THE POWER OF eX

40 30 20

TOPEX Jason 60-day smoothing

10
0 -10 20

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

Year

CAUTION: WE ARE ENTERING NON-LINEAR TERRITORY WITH FEEDBACKS! (goodbye y=mx+b

2010: rich get richer Poor get poorer

Feedback Heat beatle Kill Dry Fire Co co2 desert More heat

FEEDBACK: WARMINGBEETLES FIRECO2 CO PARTICLES BARE GROUND MORE WARMING

2006 Lake Mead Demand in the West > Conservation

Which part of the changes is due to human impact, which part is due to natural variability? Very probably they superpose, but with which weighting??

1919 image of Athbasca Glacier, Jasper National Park, Canada, courtesy National Archives of Canada, from the Wheeler Survey; 2005 image Gary Braasch

ELP following floods of Aug 1 2006radar mosquitoes 30 dbZ Malaria pill

The Future
A LOT OF UNCERTAILNTY AND COMPLEXITY WITH FEEDBACK SURPRISES ARE LIKELY OVER A LARGE SCALE OF TIME! ISSUES MUST BE ADDRESSED RELATED TO CLIMATE:
AVIALABILTY OF FRESH WATER:

3%

FASTER IMPLENTATION OF ALTERNATE ENERGY SOURCES

SOME IMPLICATIONS
Warming will be greater for winter than summer Warming will be greater at night than during the day More precipitation..More drought More rain will come in intense rainfall events Higher stream flow, more flooding Latent and Sensible Heatrich get rich (floods) and the poor get poorer (drought)

SOME NOAA TALKING POINTS 1. 2005/2010 was the warmest on record. 3. Summer of 2006 warmest on record. 4. ENSO brings long term heat transferfer and climate stability and the frequency may increase due to GW. 5. Weather is becoming more extreme. 6. Current Climate models cannot credibly produce accurate future scenarios and are poor in modeling the greenhouse gases especially water vapor. EVIDENCE CONTINUES TO SHOW MAN IS INCREASINGLY MODIFYING THE CLIMATE ENVIRONMENT.
THE WEST AND NORTHERN LATITUDES ARE WARMING THE FASTEST

9/11/2001

Climate Surprises
Breakdown of the ocean thermohaline circulation (Glaciers) Break-off of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Increase Tropical rainfall reducing tropical salinity. TIPPING POINTS(the straw that broke... Water Vapor is the most import GH Gas Arctic and West are warming fasterCH4 will be the next big player.

DRIVERS: ASTRONOMICAL GEOMETRY GREENHOUSE GASES COS CH4 NATURAL AND ,MAN THERMAL HALINE CIRCULATION SYSTEM MAGNETIC FIELD OF THE SUN AEROSOLS WATER VAPOR AND DUST SMOKE VULCANISM MAN CANNOT BE 0 % OR 100% CLIMATE IS COMPLES NONLINEAR WITH FEEDBACKS DO NOT CONFUSE WEATHER AND CLIMATE (HEAVY SNOW ON THE BAROCLINIC ZONE) EUROPE (RHINE AND SUNSPOTS 2009-2011) WAVE PHENOMENON ( NAO AO ENSO) SMALLER MERIDIONAL TEMP DIFF . WEAKER PRESSURE SYSTEMS SLOWER MOVERS HENCE MORE TIME TO ACHIEVE RECORDS.

The Future
A LOT OF UNCERTAILNTY AND COMPLEXITY WITH FEEDBACK SURPRISES ARE LIKELY OVER A LARGE SCALE OF TIME! ISSUES MUST BE ADDRESSED RELATED TO CLIMATE:

AVIALABILTY OF FRESH

WATER:

FASTER IMPLENTATION OF ALTERNATE ENERGY SOURCES

CPC PREDICTIONS

JAS

Drought Termination and Amelioration National Climatic Data Center Asheville, North Carolina

67%

LET ME LEAVE YOU WITH

www.weather.gov/elpso Left frame drought index

SPOTTER TRAINING
Now visit us on Facebook