Currencies Daily Report

Friday| September 14, 2012

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Fundamental Team Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst Nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Associate anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

Angel Broking Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 Currency: INE231279838 / MCX Currency Sebi Regn No: INE261279838 / Member ID: 10500

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Broking Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on currencies@angelbroking.com

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report

Friday| September 14, 2012

Highlights
US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 1.7 percent in August. US Unemployment Claims rose to 382,000 for w/e on 7th September.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Oct'12) -$/bbl Comex Gold (Dec12) - $/oz Comex Silver(Dec12) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% - Yield 5435.4 18021.2 13539.86 1460.0 16244.3 1950.7 61958.1 8995.2 98.31 1769.10 3471.60 8184.00 477.11 99.8 Prev. day 0.1 0.1 1.5 1.6 -1.1 0.0 3.4 0.4 1.3 2.2 4.5 1.3 0.0 0.2

as on September 13, 2012 WoW 3.8 3.9 1.9 1.9 2.9 3.7 6.2 -0.1 2.9 3.9 6.4 6.2 0.6 -0.1 MoM 1.4 2.1 2.2 4.0 8.8 -0.4 4.2 -1.1 2.8 9.5 23.1 9.6 5.0 0.6 YoY 8.4 7.8 20.4 24.5 14.9 11.5 10.1 5.6 10.6 -3.0 -14.2 -5.0 -21.1 3.5

Asian markets are trading on a firm note taking cues from positive global market sentiments caused by US Federal Reserve plan to conduct the third round of quantitative easing. US Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 1.7 percent in August as against a previous rise of 0.3 percent in July. Unemployment Claims rose by 17,000 to 382,000 for the week ending on 7th September from previous rise of 365,000 in prior week. Core PPI was at 0.2 percent in the last month as compared to rise of 0.4 percent in earlier month. Federal Funds Rate remained unchanged at 0.25 percent in the month of September. Federal Budget Balance was at a deficit of $190.5 billion in August with respect to previous deficit of $69.6 billion in July.

US Dollar Index
US dollar Index (DX) declined 0.6 percent on account of rise in risk appetite amongst market participants after US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke announced plan to conduct the third round of quantitative easing. It announced that Fed will expand its holdings of long term securities with open ended purchases of $40 billion a month of mortgaged backed securities (MBS) in the QE3. The FOMC also said it would probably hold the federal funds rate near zero at least through mid-2015. This led to decline in the demand for the low yielding currency that is DX. US equities also gained after announcement by the US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke its third round of QE to boost the economic health of the nation and reduce unemployment. The currency touched a low of 79.15 and closed at 79.25 in yesterdays session.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR Sep12 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR Sep12 Futures (MCX-SX) 79.24 55.34 55.46 55.46 Prev. day -0.6 -0.2 0.28 0.29

as on September 13, 2012 WoW -2.2 0.6 -0.75 -0.75 MoM -3.9 0.5 0.03 0.01 YoY 3.1 -13.9 16.32 16.26

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee depreciated by 0.3 percent in the yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated taking cues from mixed global market sentiments. Additionally, domestic equities also ended on a flat note in yesterdays trade. However, weakness in the DX along with expectations of stimulus measure from the US cushioned sharp fall in the currency. It touched an intra-day low of 55.48 in yesterdays trade and closed at 55.41 on Thursday. For the current month, FII inflows totaled at Rs 2,477.10 crores till 13 September 2012. While year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs 65,546.80 crores till 13th September 2012.
th

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Outlook We expect Indian rupee to appreciate on the back of upbeat global market sentiments triggered by announcement of QE3 by the Federal Reserve policy makers in FOMC meeting held yesterday. However, inflation data from the nation is expected to rise for the month of August which might cap sharp appreciation in currency.

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR Sep12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for September 14, 2012 Support 55.20/55.0 Resistance 55.56/55.8

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report

Friday| September 14, 2012

Euro/INR
Euro gained 0.7 percent taking cues from the announcement of the US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke plan to conduct QE3. Weakness in the DX also acted as a supportive factor for the currency appreciation. The currency touched an intraday high of 1.3001 and closed at 1.2986 on Thursday. Outlook In todays session, we expect Euro to appreciate taking cues from positive global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. Additionally, favouarable economic data from the region might support for the currency to appreciate. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR Sep12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up 71.28/71.1 71.7/71.9 valid for September 14, 2012 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR Sep12 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR Sep12 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2988 71.85 71.51 71.5 Prev. day 0.7 -0.9 0.27 0.25

as on September 13, 2012 WoW 2.9 -2.2 1.55 1.55 MoM 5.1 -4.6 4.39 4.31 YoY -5.5 -8.9 9.61 9.79

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

GBP/INR
The Pound appreciated by 0.3 percent yesterday taking cues from weakness in the DX. Additionally, upbeat global market sentiments also supported upside in the currency. It touched an intra-day high of 1.6174 and closed at 1.6152 on Thursday. GBP (% change) Outlook In the intra-day, we expect Pound to trade on a bullish note on account of upbeat global market sentiments triggered by the announcement of US Federal Reserve its plan to expand its holdings of long term securities with open ended purchases of $40 billion a month of mortgaged backed securities (MBS). Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR Sep 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for September 14, 2012 Support 88.95/88.75 Resistance 89.4/89.7 Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR Sep12 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR Sep12 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.6152 89.35 89.26 Prev. day 0.3 -0.5 0.34 WoW 1.4 -0.8 0.52 MoM 2.7 -2.1 2.70 YoY 2.5 -19.0 18.41

Source: Telequote

as on September 13, 2012

89.27

0.35

0.55

2.70

18.41

Source: Reuters

www.angelbroking.com

Currencies Daily Report

Friday| September 14, 2012

JPY/INR
The Japanese Yen appreciated by 0.4 percent yesterday on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global markets in the early part of the trade which led to increase in demand for the low yielding currency. It touched an intra-day high of 77.11 and closed at 77.48 in yesterdays trading session. Outlook In todays trade, we expect Yen to depreciate on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global markets which will lead to fall in demand for the low yielding currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR Sep 12 (NSE/MCX-SX) Up valid for September 14, 2012 Support 71.05/70.85 Resistance 71.48/71.70

JPY (% change)
Last 77.48 0.7139 71.35 71.34 Prev day -0.4 -0.7 0.56 0.52

as on September 13, 2012 WoW -1.7 -1.2 0.28 0.30 MoM -2.3 -1.9 0.81 0.81 YoY 1.1 -14.9 15.07 15.09

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR Sep12 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR Sep12 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Source: Telequote

Economic Indicators to be released on September 14, 2012

Indicator CPI y/y Core CPI y/y ECOFIN Meetings Core CPI m/m Core Retail Sales m/m Retail Sales m/m CPI m/m Capacity Utilization Rate Industrial Production m/m Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Business Inventories m/m Country Euro Euro Euro US US US US US US US US Time (IST) 2:30pm 2:30pm Tentative 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:45pm 6:45pm 7:25pm 7:30pm Actual Forecast 2.6% 1.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7% 0.5% 79.4% 0.2% 74.1 0.3% Previous 2.6% 1.7% 0.1% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 79.3% 0.6% 74.3 0.1% Impact Medium Medium Medium High High High Medium Medium Medium High Medium

www.angelbroking.com