CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES POLL For release: Friday, September 14, 2012 6:30 pm EDT Heading into

the Fall Campaign: President Obama has the Edge September 8-12, 2012 ! With their parties conventions behind them, President Barack Obama has the edge in a tight race among likely voters nationwide: 49% back President Obama, while 46% support Mitt Romney. The President enjoys a larger lead (eight points) among registered voters. Mr. Obama is seen as the candidate who would do a better job on foreign policy and fares better than Romney on handling an international crisis. The candidates are even on handling the economy voters top concern. Most voters think Barack Obamas policies will favor either the middle class (26%) or treat all equally (30%), but 53% say Mitt Romneys policies would favor the rich. There is some optimism in the poll: 40% of Americans say the country is headed in the right direction, the highest percentage in three years. 32% think the economy is improving.

! !

The State of the Race President Barack Obama has a three-point edge over Republican Mitt Romney among likely voters nationwide. This is the first national poll in which CBS News and the New York Times have measured the presidential race among likely voters. The measure for likely voters takes into account voters reported intent to vote, voting history and other factors that historically affect an individuals decision to vote. Likely Voters: 2012 Vote for President (Among likely voters) Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 46 Undecided 4 The gender gap continues. The president leads among women by double digits, but Romney holds a lead among men (please see page 9 for demographics.) President Obama has a wider lead over Romney among the broader group of registered voters nationwide. 51% say theyll vote for Mr. Obama (the first time he is above the 50% mark), while 43% choose Romney. Heading into the parties conventions, the President and Romney were neck and neck among registered voters. Registered Voters: 2012 Vote for President (Among registered voters) Now Before Conventions (8/2012) Barack Obama 51% 46% Mitt Romney 43 45 Undecided 4 6

There are some signs that candidate support may be starting to solidify. More of each candidates voters now say they strongly favor their candidate than said so in July. 46% of Romneys supporters strongly back him, up 17 points from two months ago, but Romney still trails Mr. Obama on this: two-thirds of the Presidents voters strongly favor him. About a quarter (24%) of Romney voters say they are supporting him because they dislike President Obama, down from 37%. Strength of Support (Among voters with a candidate choice) Romney Voters Obama Voters Now 7/2012 Now 7/2012 Strongly favor 46% 29% 65% 52% Like with reservations 27 32 21 37 Dislike other candidate 24 37 12 8 There is some room for movement in the presidential race but not very much. More than eight in 10 voters who back a candidate say their minds are made up, while just over one in 10 say its too early and their minds could still change. Handling the Issues As the U.S. responds to a violent attack on an American consulate in Libya, likely voters give Barack Obama the edge in handling an international crisis. Two-thirds are at least somewhat confident in his ability to handle an international crisis, including four in 10 who have a lot of confidence. 58% have confidence in Mitt Romney to do so, including just one in four with a lot of confidence. Confidence in Handling an International Crisis (Among likely voters) Barack Obama Mitt Romney A lot 39% 26% Some 26 32 A little 13 15 None at all 21 22 Most of the interviews for this poll were conducted in the days just before the consulate attack in Libya. The economy and jobs remains the top concern of voters in this election, and likely voters are divided between the two candidates on this issue. 47% of likely voters now think Barack Obama would do a better job handling the economy and jobs, while 46% choose Mitt Romney. The candidates are about equal on handling taxes, and Mitt Romney (51%) leads Barack Obama (43%) on handling the budget deficit. Meanwhile President Obama has a ten point lead over Mitt Romney on foreign policy, and he leads Romney on handling Medicare and health care. Who Will Do a Better Job On? (Among likely voters) Barack Obama Mitt Romney Economy & jobs 47% 46 Foreign Policy 49% 39 Medicare 50% 43 Who Will Do a Better Job On? (Among likely voters)

Health Care Taxes Budget Deficit Helping the Middle Class

Barack Obama 50% 48% 43%

Mitt Romney 46 46 51

As for who will do more to help middle class Americans a prominent theme of both parties conventions President Obama has a 14 point lead over Mitt Romney. Most voters earning less than $100,000 a year choose Barack Obama on this measure, while half of those earning more choose Mitt Romney. Who Will Do More to Help Middle Class Americans? (Among likely voters) Total Under $50K $50K-$100K $100K+ 54% 62% 54% 45% 40 32 40 52

Barack Obama Mitt Romney

26% of voters think Barack Obamas policies will favor the middle class, but just 8% say the same about Mitt Romneys policies. In fact, 53% think Mitt Romneys policies would favor the rich. Who Will Their Policies Favor? (Among likely voters) Obamas Policies Romneys Policies 12% 53% 26 8 22 1 30 33

Rich Middle Class Poor All equally Candidate Qualities

Barack Obama also leads Mitt Romney on a number of candidate qualities. Majorities of voters think the President understands the needs and problems of people like them, is clear about what he wants to accomplish if re-elected, says what he believes rather than what people want to hear, and is honest and trustworthy. Voters tend to think Mitt Romney is honest and trustworthy (though by a smaller margin), and that he is clear about what he wants to accomplish as president. But voters are divided over whether or not he understands their problems, and about half think he mostly says what people want to hear. Obama vs. Romney: Candidate Qualities (Among likely voters) Barack Obama Yes No Understands problems of people like you 60% 37 Clear about what he wants to accomplish 59% 37 Honest and trustworthy 58% 37 Says what he believes 54% 43

Mitt Romney Yes No 46% 48 50% 44 53% 36 42% 53

Referendum on the President? One question that is often asked when an incumbent president is running for re-election is whether the country and voters are better off than they were before he took office. Nearly half of voters say their families are about the same but the rest are divided, with 25% better off and 28% worse off. When it comes to the country overall, just a quarter say it is about the same as four years ago. 36% say things in the U.S. are better, and 39% say things are worse. Better or Worse Off Compared to 4 Years Ago? (Among registered voters) Country Your family 36% 25% 39 28 24 46

Better Worse Same

While views of the country compared to four years ago may be mixed, 40% of Americans now say the country is headed in the right direction the highest that number has been in three years, and up nine points since before the party conventions. Country is Headed in the Now 8/2012 1/2012 2/2011 40% 31% 29% 36% 54 62 65 58 9/2010 33% 60 9/2009 41% 53

Right direction Wrong track

That increase has come primarily from Democrats. Last month, 56% of Democrats said the country was going in the right direction; now, that number has risen to 71%. Just 11% of Republicans say the country is headed in the right direction. Country is Headed in the Right Direction Now 8/2012 Republicans 11% 6% Democrats 71% 56% Independents 30% 27% The percentage of registered voters that think President Obamas economic policies are improving the economy now has risen 10 points from 17% in July to 27% today. Effect of Barack Obamas Policies on the Economy (Among registered voters) Now 7/2012 Improving it now 27% 17% Will improve it if given more time 32 34 Will never improve it 38 46 While 49% of voters say they are at least somewhat satisfied with the Obama presidency so far, only 18% are very satisfied. Half of all registered voters say they are disappointed, including nearly one in three who are very disappointed. Opinion of the Candidates Coming out of the conventions, registered voters now have a slight net favorable opinion of Barack Obama a reversal from what was found in August when slightly more viewed him

unfavorably. Views of Mitt Romney remain net negative: slightly more voters view him unfavorably than favorably. A quarter has not formed an opinion yet, down slightly from 32%. Opinion of the Presidential Candidates (Among registered voters) Barack Obama Mitt Romney Now 8/2012 Now 8/2012 Favorable 45% 41% 33% 31% Not favorable 41 44 40 36 Undecided/dont know 13 14 26 32 Michelle Obama and Ann Romney both of whom made prominent speeches at their respective husbands nominating conventions came out of those conventions with a favorable public opinion rating. 61% of voters now view Michelle Obama favorably the highest rating she has received since April 2009. Ann Romney is also viewed far more favorably than unfavorably, though more than half of registered voters dont know enough about her to make a decision. Opinion of Michelle Obama and Ann Romney (Among registered voters) Michelle Obama Ann Romney Favorable 61% 32% Not favorable 19 13 Undecided/dont know 19 53 Former Democratic President Bill Clinton, who also spoke at his partys convention, is viewed even more positively. 66% of registered voters have a favorable opinion of him, compared to just 25% who view him unfavorably the highest rating he has received since CBS News first asked the question in 1987. Opinion of Bill Clinton (Among registered voters) Now 7/2008 10/2004 1/2001 2/1998 8/1987 Favorable 66% 46% 48% 54% 58% 3% Not favorable 25 42 38 39 31 4 Undecided/dont know 9 10 14 7 11 91 Likely voters who watched the conventions came away with more positive rather than negative impressions of both candidates. As might be expected, there are strong partisan differences on this. 77% of Republicans say the GOP convention gave them a better impression of Romney, while 82% of Democrats say their partys convention improved their view of President Obama. More than four in 10 independents came away from the conventions with a better opinion of each candidate. Perhaps not surprisingly, Republicans were more likely to watch their own partys convention, as were Democrats. Did Republican Convention Make You think Better or Worse of Romney? (Among Likely Voters: Republican convention watchers) All Rep Dem Ind Better 47% 77% 15% 47% Worse 26 4 58 20 No diff. (vol.) 26 18 27 33

Did Democratic Convention Make You think Better or Worse of Obama? (Among Likely Voters: Democratic convention watchers) All Rep Dem Ind Better 49% 10% 82% 45% Worse 23 52 4 22 No diff. (vol.) 27 38 14 34 The Campaign More voters think Mitt Romney (42%) rather than Barack Obama (32%) is running the more negative campaign. 15% volunteer that both candidates campaigns are negative. As might be expected, most of each candidates supporters say the opponents campaign is more negative. Who Is Running A More Negative Campaign? (Among likely voters) Total Obama Voters Romney Voters 32% 3% 66% 42 80 5 15 8 19

Obama Romney Both (vol.)

By more than three to one, voters describe this presidential campaign overall as more negative than positive compared to past campaigns. However, more than half of voters (52%) think this campaign is no different in tone than previous ones. Compared to Past Campaigns, This One Is (Among likely voters) Total Obama Voters Romney Voters 11% 16% 6% 36 34 38 52 49 54

More positive More negative Same

One of the goals of conventions is for political parties to rally their base of support, and it appears the Democrats have made progress on this front. 43% of Democrats now say they are more enthusiastic about voting compared to past elections; up from 27% in July. Republicans remain more enthusiastic than Democrats, but their enthusiasm level hasnt increased much from two months ago. Enthusiasm Compared to Past Elections (Among registered voters) Republicans Democrats All Now 7/2012 Now 7/2012 43% 52% 49% 43% 27% 19 15 20 17 24 37 33 30 40 48

More enthusiastic Less enthusiastic Same

Independents Now 7/2012 37% 29% 25 38 37 42

Democrats are less likely than Republicans to be paying a lot attention to the campaign. Overall, fewer voters are tuning in than did so at this point in the presidential campaign four years ago. Attention to the Campaign (Among registered voters) Total Rep Dems Inds 47% 55% 43% 47% 36 30 38 37 17 14 18 15

A lot Some Not much/none

Total (9/2008) 63% 30 7

VP Candidates Even after the party conventions, nearly half of voters nationwide are undecided or dont know enough about Republican Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan to have an opinion. Views of him are divided, just as they were before the conventions. Opinions of Vice President Joe Biden are split now. More than half of likely voters think Mr. Biden is honest and trustworthy. Fewer say that about Ryan, but a third of voters did not offer an opinion on this question. 39% of voters think Biden would be able to serve as an effective President if that became necessary, but 49% do not. Likely voters are divided on this question about Ryan, but a quarter did not have an opinion. Assessing the President 51% of Americans now say they approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president - a slight increase from August - while 42% disapprove. Now 51% 42 President Obamas Job Rating 8/2012 5/2012 9/2011 48% 50% 43% 43 48 50 5/2011 57% 37

Approve Disapprove

In particular, more Americans now give President Obama better ratings on handling the economy than did so in August. While most disapproved in August, Americans are now divided. On his handling of foreign policy, 50% approve while 36% disapprove. President Obamas Job Ratings on The Economy Foreign Policy Now 8/2012 Now 8/2012 45% 39% 50% 45% 47 54 36 35

Approve Disapprove The Economy

Evaluations of the economy have risen slightly since last month, but remain overwhelmingly negative. Just 31% of Americans rate the economy as good, and more than twice as many say it is in bad shape -- but views are more positive now than they were one or two years ago. Now 31% 68 Condition of the Economy 8/2012 4/2012 27% 27% 71 70 9/2011 14% 86 9/2010 17% 81

Good Bad

Similarly, the percentage that says the economy is improving has risen since last month, to about a third where it was in April. Slightly more say it is staying the same (39%). Now 32% 28 39 Direction of the Economy 8/2012 4/2012 25% 33% 30 28 43 38 9/2011 12% 43 44 9/2010 22% 30 48

Better Worse Same

Six in ten Americans are concerned about job loss in their household.

When asked a general question about life for the next generation of Americans, a third is optimistic that their future will be better, but more, 42%, expect a worse future for the next generation. Still, Americans are more optimistic now than they have been over the past couple of years. Future for the Next Generation Now 4/2012 10/2010 32% 24% 22% 42 47 51 18 23 23 3/2009 35% 32 26

Better Worse Same Congress and the Parties

16% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, the highest that has been in over a year. 74% disapprove. Americans are more likely to blame the Republicans in Congress (44%) than Barack Obama and the Democrats in Congress (29%) for difficulties reaching agreements and passing legislation. Positive assessments of the Democratic Party have increased a bit since their convention: 49% now hold a favorable opinion of the party, up from 43% before the conventions. Favorable views of the Republican Party are unchanged since last month. Favorable Views of the Political Parties Now Last month Democratic Party 49% 43% Republican Party 36% 35% At their conventions, the two parties articulated how they envisioned the role of government differently, with Republican speakers emphasizing individual responsibility and self-reliance, and Democrats emphasizing community and shared responsibility. Overall, when Americans are asked which the government should emphasize to make the United States more successful, more choose community and shared responsibility (56%) over self reliance and individual responsibility (37%). Most Republicans (65%) pick self-reliance and most Democrats (76%) pick community. Which Should Government Emphasize More? Total Reps Dems Ind Self-reliance and individual responsibility 37% 65% 19% 37% Community and shared responsibility 56 28 76 54 Issues Medicare and Health Care Three in four Americans, including more than half of Republicans, expect it will be necessary to make at least some changes to the Medicare system in order to keep it financially sound.

To Keep Medicare Sound, Necessary to Make All Reps Dems Inds Major changes 40% 51% 30% 42% Minor changes 36 34 40 34 No changes 14 6 22 12 At the same time, 78% would like the Medicare system to continue as it is now, with the government providing seniors with health insurance. 14% think it should be changed to a system in which the government provides seniors with a fixed amount of money to purchase private health insurance. Just 42% of Americans approve of the 2010 health care legislation, and a majority would like the law to be repealed at least in part or completely. Tax Cuts Americans views on what should happen to the tax cuts passed in 2001 and 2003 have changed little in recent months. Most went them to continue for everyone or for those with incomes below $250,000. Tax Cuts Should Continue for all Continue only for those with incomes < $250k Expire for all Now 30% 47 15 7/2012 27% 49 17

Voter IDs Seven in ten voters support efforts that would require voters to show photo identification in order to vote, because that it is needed to prevent people who are not eligible to vote from voting. Just a quarter oppose it because such efforts are designed to suppress voting by minority voters. There are large partisan differences: nearly all Republicans support this, as do 76% of independents, while Democrats are more divided. Also, 52% of African Americans support these efforts, while 48% do not. Require Photo Identification to Vote? (among registered voters) All Reps Dems Inds Support 70% 94% 48% 76% Oppose 28 6 50 21 Whos Supporting Who? Each presidential candidate is getting the support of nine in 10 of their party stalwarts, while independents are breaking for Romney. While Romney beats Mr. Obama among likely voters age 65 and over, the President leads among younger voters and enjoys his largest lead among voters under age 30. Romney leads among whites, while the President is getting the support of 94% of African Americans voters. The gender gap continues. The president leads among women by double digits, but Romney holds a lead among men.

Who Would You Vote for if the Candidates Were? (Among likely voters) Obama Romney Total 49% 46% Men Women Republicans Democrats Independents 18-29 30-44 45-64 65+ Whites Blacks White College grad White No degree 44% 53% 7% 92 40 53% 50% 52% 38% 40% 94% 47% 37% 52 41 90 5 51 45 45 45 53 55 6 50 57

<$50k 58% 37 $50k-$100K 47% 50 $100K+ 41% 57 ______________________________________________________________________

This poll was conducted by telephone from September 8-12, 2012 among 1,301 adults nationwide, including 1,170 registered voters. The sample size for likely voters is 1,162. Not all likely voters are assigned the same probability of voting. Phone numbers were dialed from samples of both standard landline and cell phones. The error due to sampling for results based on the entire sample, the sample of registered voters, and the sample of likely voters could be plus or minus three percentage points. The error for subgroups may be higher. Percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding. This poll release conforms to the Standards of Disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls.

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CBS News/New York Times National Poll Heading into the Fall Campaign: President Obama has the Edge September 8-12, 2012 attn How much attention have you been able to pay to the 2012 Presidential campaign -- a lot, some, not much, or no attention so far? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 47 55 43 47 36 30 38 37 13 8 16 11 4 6 2 4 0 0 0 1

A lot Some Not much No attention DK/NA

Aug12a % 45 34 14 6 0

q1 Compared to past presidential elections, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about voting in the 2012 presidential election this year -- are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? More enthusiastic Less enthusiastic Same q2 HELD FOR RELEASE q3/q4 If the 2012 presidential election were being held today and the candidates were Barack Obama for President and Joe Biden for Vice President, the Democrats, and Mitt Romney for President and Paul Ryan for Vice President, the Republicans, would you vote for Barack Obama and Joe Biden or Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan? If DEPENDS or DONT KNOW: Well as of today, do you lean more toward Barack Obama and Joe Biden or more toward Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan? ***** LIKELY VOTERS ***** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 49 7 92 40 46 90 5 51 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 2 4 3 2 6 Reg Voters % 51 43 1 1 4 Reg Aug12a % 46 45 2 2 6 43 19 37 52 15 33 43 17 40 37 25 37 Jul12a 33 25 41

Obama/Biden Romney/Ryan Won't vote (Vol.) Other (Vol.) DK/NA

q5 Is your mind made up or is it still too early to say for sure? *LIKELY VOTERS W/ CANDIDATE CHOICE* Mind made up 86 90 91 78 Too early to say for sure 13 10 8 21 DK/NA 0 0 1 0 Reg 82 14 5

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q6 Would you describe your support for Barack Obama/Mitt Romney as strongly favoring Barack Obama/Mitt Romney, or do you like Barack Obama/Mitt Romney but with reservations, or do you support Barack Obama/Mitt Romney because you dislike the other candidate? *REGISTERED VOTERS W/ CANDIDATE CHOICE* Total Obama Romney Voter Voters Voters % % % Strongly favor 56 65 46 Like but with reservations 24 21 27 Dislike other candidate 17 12 24 Don't know/No answer 3 2 3 q7 BLANK q8 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 51 11 87 41 42 84 9 47 7 4 4 11

Jul12A % 41 34 23 2

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

Aug12b % 48 43 8

q9 Do you feel things in this country are generally going in the right direction or do you feel things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track? Right direction Wrong track DK/NA 40 54 6 11 87 2 71 23 6 30 63 7 31 62 7

q10 What is the most important issue to you in deciding how you will vote for President this year? Economy & Jobs Health Care Budget Deficit/National Debt The President/Barack Obama Education Taxes/IRS Abortion Medicare, Medicaid Women's Issues Miscellaneous Social Issue Other DK/NA *** REGISTERED VOTERS *** 37 47 32 38 11 9 14 10 4 4 2 5 4 5 7 1 3 0 5 2 3 2 1 4 2 4 1 1 2 1 3 1 2 1 3 2 2 2 2 2 20 16 22 21 10 9 8 13

q11 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling foreign policy? Approve Disapprove DK/NA 50 36 15 ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** 18 77 43 73 10 38 9 13 19 45 35 20

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q12 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling the economy? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 45 10 79 34 47 83 15 56 8 7 6 10

Approve Disapprove DK/NA

Aug12b % 39 54 7

q13 Do you approve or disapprove of the way Congress is handling its job? Approve Disapprove DK/NA q14-15 BLANK q16 In general, is your opinion of the Republican Party favorable or not favorable? Favorable Not favorable DK/NA 36 55 9 76 19 6 13 83 4 34 50 16 35 53 12 16 74 10 13 77 10 20 71 9 15 75 10 14 74 12

q17 In general, is your opinion of the Democratic Party favorable or not favorable? Favorable Not favorable DK/NA 49 43 8 10 86 3 89 7 4 36 50 14 43 47 10

q18 How would you rate the condition of the national economy these days? Is it very good, fairly good, fairly bad, or very bad? Very good Fairly good Fairly bad Very bad DK/NA 2 29 38 30 1 0 14 39 46 0 3 47 38 10 2 1 22 38 39 0 2 25 39 32 1

q19 Do you think the economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same? Better Worse Same DK/NA 32 28 39 1 11 52 36 2 55 7 37 1 25 32 42 1 25 30 43 1

q20 Which of these comes closer to your opinion: 1. The United States is more successful when the government emphasizes self-reliance and individual responsibility, OR 2. The United States is more successful when the government emphasizes community and shared responsibility. Eemphasizes self-reliance Emphasizes community Don't know/No answer 37 56 7 65 28 7 19 76 6 37 54 8

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q21 Compared with four years ago, is the United States better off today, worse off today, or about the same? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 36 9 66 25 39 77 8 46 24 14 26 28 1 0 1 1

Better off Worse off Same Don't know/No answer

q22 Compared with four years ago, are you and your family better off today, worse off today, or about the same? Jan92b % 22 30 45 1

Better off Worse off Same Don't know/No answer

25 28 46 1

9 44 46 0

40 12 47 0

21 33 44 2

q23 Do you think the future of the next generation of Americans will be better, worse, or about the same as life today? Better Worse About the same DK/NA ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** 32 12 51 27 42 63 23 48 18 18 18 18 8 8 8 8 Apr12a 24 47 23 6

q24 Is your opinion of Barack Obama favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Barack Obama yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 45 41 11 2 1 ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** 5 83 34 86 6 47 8 8 15 1 3 1 0 0 2 Aug12b 41 44 12 2 1

q25 Is your opinion of Mitt Romney favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Mitt Romney yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 33 40 16 10 0 74 9 11 6 0 6 69 16 9 0 34 32 19 14 1 31 36 17 15 1

q26 In general which comes closest to your feelings about the Obama presidency so far? Would you say you are very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat disappointed or very disappointed? Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat disappointed Very disappointed DK/NA 18 31 19 31 1 5 4 24 67 1 35 51 9 5 1 9 28 26 35 1 13 32 21 34 0

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q27-28 BLANK q29 Is your opinion of Joe Biden favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Joe Biden yet to have an opinion? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 34 4 61 26 34 67 9 38 15 13 14 17 16 14 15 17 1 1 1 1

Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused

Aug12b % 28 37 22 13 1

q30 Is your opinion of Paul Ryan favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Paul Ryan yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 26 27 13 33 0 58 4 11 26 0 4 51 13 31 0 28 18 14 39 0 24 27 13 36 1

q31 Do you think Joe Biden has the ability to be an effective president if necessary, or not? ***** LIKELY VOTERS ***** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 39 14 64 35 49 80 20 51 12 7 15 14 Reg Aug12a % 40 44 17

Yes No Don't know/No answer

q32 Do you think Paul Ryan has the ability to be an effective president if necessary, or not? Yes No Don't know/No answer 37 38 25 63 11 26 13 67 20 38 32 30 36 34 30

q33 Do you think Joe Biden is honest and trustworthy, or not? Is honest and trustworthy Is not DK/NA 53 33 14 29 57 14 80 11 9 47 34 19

q34 Do you think Paul Ryan is honest and trustworthy, or not? Is honest and trustworthy Is not DK/NA 39 28 33 67 6 27 18 50 32 38 23 39

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q35 Is your opinion of Michelle Obama favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Michelle Obama yet to have an opinion? ** REGISTERED VOTERS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 61 32 87 56 19 41 2 21 13 22 5 14 6 4 5 7 1 1 0 2

Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused

May11b % 48 18 20 13 1

q36 Is your opinion of Ann Romney favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Ann Romney yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 32 13 15 38 2 57 4 8 29 2 15 25 20 39 2 32 8 14 43 3

q37 Is your opinion of Bill Clinton favorable, not favorable, undecided, or haven't you heard enough about Bill Clinton yet to have an opinion? Favorable Not favorable Undecided Haven't heard enough Refused 66 25 8 1 1 32 53 13 1 1 91 4 5 0 0 63 28 7 2 0 Jul08a 46 42 9 1 2

q38 If you had to choose, which comes closer to your opinion? 1. I am voting for Barack Obama mainly because I like the direction he is taking the country. OR 2. I am voting for Barack Obama mainly because I dislike the direction in which Mitt Romney would take the country. ***** LIKELY VOTERS ***** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 62 70 67 51 30 23 27 40 8 8 7 9

Like Obama Dislike Romney DK/NA

q39 Which of these comes closer to your opinion? 1. I am voting for Mitt Romney mainly because I like the direction he would take the country. OR 2. I am voting for Mitt Romney mainly because I dislike the direction Barack Obama is taking the country. Like Romney Dislike Obama DK/NA 50 39 11 55 36 9 29 38 34 45 43 12

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q40 Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do a better job handling each of the following issues -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Which candidate would do a better job handling health care? ***** LIKELY VOTERS ***** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 50 9 91 42 46 88 6 50 0 0 0 0 2 2 1 3 3 1 2 5 Reg Jul12a % 43 42 2 4 9

Obama Romney Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) DK/NA

q41 Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do a better job handling the federal budget deficit -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Obama Romney Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) DK/NA 43 51 0 2 4 8 89 0 2 1 80 14 0 0 5 36 55 1 3 4 36 50 1 5 8

q42 Which candidate would do a better job handling the economy and unemployment? (IF NECESSARY: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do a better job handling the economy and unemployment -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?) Obama Romney Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) DK/NA 47 46 0 2 4 5 91 0 2 2 91 6 1 1 2 38 50 0 3 8 Aug12b 38 52 0 4 6

q43 Which candidate would do a better job handling foreign policy? (IF NECESSARY: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do a better job handling foreign policy -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?) Obama Romney Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) DK/NA 49 39 1 2 9 12 78 0 3 7 85 7 1 0 7 44 40 1 3 11 Jul12a 47 40 2 3 8

q44 Which candidate would do a better job handling taxes? (IF NECESSARY: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do a better job handling taxes -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?) Obama Romney Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) DK/NA 48 46 0 2 4 8 86 0 3 3 87 8 1 0 3 41 50 0 3 6 42 47 0 4 7

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q45 Which candidate would do a better job handling Medicare? (IF NECESSARY: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do a better job handling Medicare -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?) *** LIKELY VOTERS *** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 50 9 89 44 43 83 7 46 0 0 0 0 3 3 1 3 4 5 2 6 Reg Aug12b % 45 44 1 2 7

Obama Romney Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) DK/NA

q46 Which candidate do you think would do more to help middle class Americans? (IF NECESSARY: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate do you think would do more to help middle class Americans -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney?) Obama Romney Both (vol.) Neither (vol.) DK/NA q47-48 BLANK q49 Do you think Barack Obama does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself? Yes No DK/NA
*Wording:

54 40 0 3 4

14 80 0 3 3

93 4 0 0 3

47 42 0 5 6

50 42 1 3 4

60 37 3

30 67 3

90 8 2

54 43 3

54* 42 4

Do you think Barack Obama understands the needs and problems

q50 Do you think Barack Obama says what he believes most of the time, or does he say what he thinks people want to hear? What he believes What people want to hear Don't know/No answer 54 43 3 24 74 2 83 15 2 50 47 3 Jul12a 45 51 4

q51 If Barack Obama is re-elected President, do you think the policies of his administration will favor the rich, favor the middle class, favor the poor, or will they treat all groups the same? Rich Middle Poor Treat groups the same Don't know/No answer
*Wording:

12 26 22 30 10

14 8 45 17 17

4 40 7 47 2

17 28 19 24 12

Oct08d* 8 38 22 24 8

If Barack Obama is elected President,

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q52 Do you think Barack Obama is honest and trustworthy, or not? *** LIKELY VOTERS *** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 58 23 93 52 37 72 5 41 5 5 3 8

Is honest and trustworthy Is not DK/NA

q53 How much confidence do you have in Barack Obama's ability to handle an international crisis -- a lot, some, a little, or none at all? A lot Some A little None at all Don't know/No answer 39 26 13 21 1 12 23 22 43 0 74 21 3 1 0 27 33 16 22 1

q54 Do you think Barack Obama has made it clear what he wants to accomplish if he were re-elected President, or not? Clear Not clear Don't know/No answer q55 BLANK q56 Do you think Mitt Romney does or does not understand the needs and problems of people like yourself? Reg Aug12b* % 41 50 8 59 37 4 38 58 4 85 11 4 51 44 5

Yes No DK/NA
*Wording:

46 48 6

82 12 6

16 78 6

46 48 6

Do you think Mitt Romney understands the needs and problems

q57 Do you think Mitt Romney says what he believes most of the time, or does he say what he thinks people want to hear? Reg Jul12a 37 56 7

What he believes What people want to hear Don't know/No answer

42 53 5

66 25 8

15 80 5

47 49 4

q58 If Mitt Romney is elected President, do you think the policies of his administration will favor the rich, favor the middle class, favor the poor, or will they treat all groups the same? Rich Middle Poor Treat groups the same Don't know/No answer 53 8 1 33 6 11 15 2 64 8 88 2 0 7 3 52 8 0 34 6 53 11 2 30 4

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q59 Do you think Mitt Romney is honest and trustworthy, or not? *** LIKELY VOTERS *** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 53 90 20 56 36 6 67 30 11 4 12 14

Is honest and trustworthy Is not DK/NA

q60 How much confidence do you have in Mitt Romney's ability to handle an international crisis -- a lot, some, a little, or none at all? A lot Some A little None at all Don't know/No answer 26 32 15 22 4 54 36 4 3 3 5 26 20 45 4 25 35 20 16 5

q61 Do you think Mitt Romney has made it clear what he wants to accomplish if he were elected president? Yes No Don't know/No answer q62 BLANK q63 Which comes closest to your view of Barack Obama's economic policies? 1. They are improving the economy now, and will probably continue to do so, or 2. They have not improved the economy yet, but will if given more time, or 3. They are not improving the economy and probably never will. Improving economy Will in the future Not improving and never will Made economy worse (Vol.) Don't know/No answer *** REGISTERED VOTERS *** 27 6 47 21 32 11 45 33 38 80 6 42 2 2 0 3 1 1 1 2 Jul12a 17 34 45 1 3 50 44 6 74 20 6 32 61 7 48 46 6

q64 These days, who do you blame more for the difficulties in reaching agreements and passing legislation in Congress -- the Republicans in Congress or Barack Obama and the Democrats in Congress? Republicans in Congress Barack Obama and Democrats Both (Vol.) Don't know/No answer q65 BLANK *** TOTAL RESPONDENTS *** 44 12 74 35 29 61 9 29 19 22 9 26 8 5 8 10 Jan12b 46 30 16 8

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q66 Which of these comes closest to your view? Abortion should be generally available to those who want it. Abortion should be available but under stricter limits than it is now. Abortion should not be permitted. ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 42 22 57 41 35 39 27 40 20 37 14 16 3 2 3 4

Generally available Available but limits Should not be permitted Don't know/No answer

Jan12b % 37 37 23 3

q67 Do you think it should be legal or not legal for same-sex couples to marry? Legal Not legal DK/NA 51 41 7 24 68 8 64 30 6 55 36 9 Jul12a 46 44 10

q68 Which comes closest to your view about the tax cuts passed in 2001 and 2003? 1. The tax cuts should be continued for everyone. OR 2. The tax cuts should only continue for household incomes under $250,000 a year. OR 3. The tax cuts should expire for everyone. Continue for all Continue for under $250,000 Expire for all Don't know/No answer 30 47 15 8 52 30 13 5 19 57 16 9 28 48 16 9 27* 49 17 7

*wording change: households earning less than

q69 From what you've heard or read, do you approve or disapprove of the health care law that was enacted in 2010? (If Approve, ask:) Do you strongly approve or somewhat approve? (If Disapprove, ask:) Do you somewhat disapprove or strongly disapprove? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know/No answer 21 21 12 34 12 2 10 10 71 6 41 31 7 9 13 14 18 18 35 15 Aug12b 18 20 14 36 13

q70 What would you like to see Congress do when it comes to the health care law? 1. Expand the health care law, OR 2. Keep the entire health care law as it is, OR 3. Repeal the part of the law that requires Americans to obtain health insurance if they don't have it, but keep the rest of the law intact, OR 4. Repeal the entire health care law. Expand the law Keep entire law in place Repeal the mandate Repeal the entire law DK/NA q71 BLANK 22 15 26 30 7 4 6 14 68 7 35 22 29 7 7 20 13 30 31 7 Jul12a 17 15 27 34 7

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q72 In order to keep Medicare financially sound, do you think it will be necessary or not necessary to make changes to the program? IF YES: Do you think major changes or minor changes will be necessary? ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 40 51 30 42 36 34 40 34 14 6 22 12 10 9 8 12

Major changes Minor changes No changes Don't know/No answer

q73 Which of these two descriptions comes closer to your view of what Medicare should look like for people who are now under 55 who would be eligible for Medicare coverage in about ten years? 1. Medicare should continue as it is today, with the government providing seniors with health insurance, OR, 2. Medicare should be changed to a system in which the government would provide seniors with a fixed amount of money toward purchasing private health insurance or Medicare insurance. Should continue as is Should be changed DK/NA 78 14 7 63 25 12 88 8 5 78 14 8

q74 Compared to past presidential campaigns, do you think the campaign this year has been more positive, more negative, or about the same as past campaigns? ***** LIKELY VOTERS ***** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 11 6 16 10 36 39 33 36 52 52 50 53 2 3 2 1 Reg Oct08g % 13 37 48 2

More positive More negative About the same DK/NA

q75 Which candidate do you think is running a more negative campaign -- Barack Obama or Mitt Romney? Obama Romney Both (vol.) Neither (Vol.) DK/NA 32 42 15 3 8 63 9 16 3 9 5 77 8 2 8 34 34 20 3 9

q76 As you may know, there have been efforts in some states to require voters to show a photo identification card to vote. Some people say this is needed to prevent people from voting who are not eligible to vote. Other people say such efforts are designed to suppress voting by minority voters. What do you think -- do you support or oppose efforts to require voters to show a photo identification card to vote? Support Oppose DK/NA q77-79 BLANK *** REGISTERED VOTERS *** 70 94 48 76 28 6 50 21 2 1 2 3

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q80 Did you watch any of the Republican National Convention? (If Yes, ask:) Did what you see make you think better of Mitt Romney or worse of him? ***** LIKELY VOTERS ***** *** Party ID *** Total Rep Dem Ind % % % % 31 60 8 31 18 3 34 13 17 14 16 22 32 21 41 32 2 2 2 2

Yes, better Yes, worse Yes, no difference (Vol.) No, didn't watch DK/NA

q81 Did you watch any of the Democratic National Convention? (If Yes, ask:) Did what you see make you think better of Barack Obama or worse of him? Yes, better Yes, worse Yes, no difference (Vol.) No, didn't watch DK/NA q82-83 BLANK q84 How concerned are you that in the next 12 months you or someone else in your household might be out of work and looking for a job -- very concerned, somewhat concerned, or not concerned at all? % 36 25 37 1 ** TOTAL RESPONDENTS ** % % % 30 37 39 27 25 25 42 37 35 1 1 1 Aug12b % 33 29 37 1 36 17 20 26 1 7 36 26 30 0 65 3 11 20 0 31 15 23 29 2

Very concerned Somewhat concerned Not at all concerned DK/NA

q86 Do you consider yourself to be a supporter of the Tea Party movement, or not? Yes No DK/NA 22 68 9 50 41 9 9 84 7 20 69 11 Weighted 285 (22%) 461 (35%) 555 (43%) 1,083 19 74 7

Total Total Total Total

Respondents Republicans Democrats Independents

Unweighted 1,301 343 451 507 1,170

Total Registered Voters

Total Likely Voters 1,162* 999 Republican likely voters 289 (29%) Democratic likely voters 351 (35%) Independent likely voters 359 (36%) *Not all likely voters are assigned the same probability of voting.

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