Commodities Evening Update

Monday | September 17, 2012

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Overview:

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135

Anish Vyas - Research Associate anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Monday | September 17, 2012

International Commodities
News and Analysis Indias CRR cut by 25 bps from 4.75 percent to 4.5 percent. European Current Account was at a surplus of 9.7 bn Euros in July. LME Copper inventories declined by 0.2 percent in todays trade. European equities are trading lower today on the back of fall in Spanish bonds after European Finance Ministers remain muted over the banking system plans. Asian markets ended on a positive note and US stock futures are trading on a flat note in todays trading session. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) kept the key interest rate that is repo rates and reverse repo rates unchanged at 8 percent and 7.0 percent respectively. However, Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) was cut by 25 bps from 4.75 percent to 4.5 percent in its midterm review. European Current Account was at a surplus of 9.7 billion Euros in July as against a previous surplus of 14.3 billion Euros a month ago. Italian Trade Balance was at a surplus of 4.49 billion Euros in July from earlier surplus of 2.52 billion Euros in prior month. European Trade Balance was at a surplus of 7.9 billion Euros in July as compared to previous surplus of 9.3 billion Euros in earlier month. Spot gold prices are trading on a flat note on the back of rise in risk aversion in the global markets. Additionally, strength in the US Dollar Index (DX) also added downside pressure on the prices. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee also added more pressure on the yellow metal prices on the MCX. Taking cues from fall in gold prices along with downside in the base metals group, Spot silver prices declined by 0.40 percent today. Additionally, a stronger DX also acted as a negative factor for the prices. The base metals pack traded on a negative note on account of rise in risk aversion in the global markets coupled with strength in the DX. However, sharp downside in the prices was cushioned on the back of decline in LME inventories. Copper, the leader of the base metals complex declined 0.5 percent on the back of weak global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. However, decline in LME Copper inventories by 0.2 percent which stood at 216,700 tonnes restricted sharp fall in the prices. Nymex crude oil prices increased traded on a flat note taking cues from expectations of economic growth in the US on one hand while strength in the DX prevented sharp gains in the crude oil prices. In the Indian markets appreciation in the Indian Rupee added downside pressure on the prices. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Sensex Nikkei* Kospi FTSE Open 5631.75 18619.90 9097.92 2005.54 16523.54 High 5652.20 18715.03 9193.27 2011.50 16572.16

as at 4.30 pm 17 September12
Low 5585.15 18480.54 9081.80 1997.79 16419.52 Last 5610.00 18542.31 9159.39 2002.35 16419.52 % Chg from Prev day 0.58 0.42 1.83 -0.26 -1.19
Source: Reuters

Nikkei* - markets are closed on account of Bank holiday.

as at 4.30 pm 17 September12
Currency Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot Open 78.84 1.3126 53.76 High 78.98 1.314 54.16 Low 78.75 1.309 53.65 Current 78.92 1.312 53.825 % Chg from Prev day 0.10 -0.03 -0.87
Source: Reuters

as at 4.30 pm 17 September12
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Dec12 MCX Gold Oct12 Spot Silver Comex Silver Dec12 MCX Silver Dec12 Crude Oil Nymex Oct 12 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Sept12 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Nov12 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Sept12 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX Sept12 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Sept12 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Sept12 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10g ms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl $/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

1774.24 1774.80 31842.00 34.66 28.23 64120 99.18 116.75 5338 8376.00 456.00 2109.75 112.05 2256 120.60 17800 956.00 2190.00 116.60

1776.26 1774.80 31931.00 34.85 34.665 64336 99.27 117.02 5354 8386.25 456.00 2109.75 112.10 2257 120.90 18021 968.70 2190.00 116.60

1767.19 1773.80 31786.00 34.40 34.435 63903 98.64 116.10 5317 8301.00 452.20 2081.00 110.80 2237 119.60 17680 950.30 2165.50 115.80

1770.50 1774.00 31805.00 34.49 34.435 63930 98.97 116.50 5325 8348.50 454.20 2095.50 111.45 2254 120.55 17998 966.20 2173.00 115.95

-0.08 0.24 -0.20 -0.40 -0.49 -0.59 -0.03 -0.14 -0.17 -0.53 -0.75 -0.69 -1.02 0.00 -0.58 1.25 1.00 -0.87 -1.07

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update

Monday | September 17, 2012

International Commodities
Outlook In todays session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade bearish on the back of profit booking by the market participants after a weeklong rally during last week amidst strength in the US Dollar Index (DX).

Technical Outook for evening session 17 September12 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold Oct'12 Spot Gold Silver Dec12 Spot Silver Crude Oil Sep '12 Nymex Crude Oil Oct12 Natural Gas Sep12 LME Copper Copper Nov'12 Zinc Sep12 Lead Sep12 Aluminum Sep12 Nickel Sep12 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 31460 1758 62725 33.91 5223 96.8 152.7 8091 449 109.7 117.85 114.85 948 Support 1 31660 1763 63515 34.27 5277 97.9 156.2 8241 451.9 110.3 119.55 115.4 960 CMP 31842 1769 64050 34.48 5327 98.74 159.3 8320 453.8 111.65 120.65 115.8 971 Resistance1 32026 1777 64590 34.97 5367 99.7 161.7 8393 457 112.6 121.4 116.9 976 Resistance 2 32236 1783 65380 35.31 5421 100.45 165.2 8477 461.7 113.25 122.7 118 980

Important Events for Today

Indicator Rightmove HPI m/m Bank Holiday Current Account Empire State Manufacturing Index Country UK Japan Euro US Time (IST) 4:31am All Day 1:30pm 6:00pm Actual -0.6% 9.7B Forecast 10.9B -1.9 Previous -2.4% 12.7B -5.9 Impact Medium Medium Medium