Linchpin Analysis: Drivers, and Descriptive Phrasing Example

To: From: National Security Council Pitt Student, Analyst, CIA Office of Transnational Issues

Subject: Caldern likely to lose control of portions of Mexico to narcotraffickers 1. Summary: The NSC has tasked our office with providing an assessment of the likelihood that the Mexican government might lose control over portions of the country to narcotraffickers. We assess with a degree of confidence that Mexican President Calderns government may dramatically and visibly lose control of portions of Mexico in the foreseeable future perhaps even with publicized incidents of police units openly siding with the cartels. The Mexican government has continuously underestimated the intentions and resources of the narcotraffickers, resulting in an unprecedented level of violence in several cities throughout the state. This violence will most likely persist as long as the narcotraffickers continue to outnumber and outgun Mexican forces. A body of intelligence reporting indicates that President Calderon is focused on working to suppress the cartels, but is privately pessimistic that his government can succeed in reducing the cartels notorious violence during his administration, which ends its six-year term in 2012. We believe that there are three key underlying factors that will determine if narcotraffickers gain control over portions of Mexico: Narco leaders goals and intentions. The narco leaders desire for enormous drug profits and power is the driving force for each of them, leads them to reckless violence on both sides of the border, and ensures they are not be deterred by soldiers or police. Mexican citizens reactions to the narcos activities and consequent political pressure on the government. The majority of Mexicans are afraid of narcotraffickers effects on their children and community, and since the mid-1990s have vocally demanded government action against the cartels. The focus, persistence, and effectiveness of Mexican troops and police to contain the spread of the narcos power and influence in the border cities.

We judge that only a sustained, focused effort by a Mexican government motivated by strong public demands is capable of breaking the hold of the cartel groups on the northern border cities. Based on the recent historical record of arrested or killed cartel leaders who are quickly replaced by others, sporadic raids to capture senior cartel figures are unlikely to reverse the Mexican governments continuing pattern of failures against the cartels. We assess that appropriate

levels of U.S. political and law enforcement support to the Mexican government ultimately would help sustain Mexican public and law enforcement attention to combating the cartels.