Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | September 25, 2012

International Commodities

Content
Days overview Market Highlights Outlook Important Events for Today

Overview:

Research Team
Nalini Rao - Sr. Research Analyst nalini.rao@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6135 Anish Vyas - Research Associate anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6104

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Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | September 25, 2012

International Commodities
News and Analysis GfK German Consumer Climate was at 5.9-mark in Sept. BBA Mortgage Approvals rose by 1,700 to 30,500 in Aug. US crude oil inventories expected to rise by 2 mn bbl today. Performance during the day
Index Nifty Open 5674.90 18708.01 9031.37 1994.08 15864.63 High 5702.70 18790.01 9112.54 2004.26 15928.56

as at 4.30 pm 25 September12
Low 5652.45 18636.16 9023.63 1988.88 15624.92 Last 5673.90 18694.41 9091.54 1991.41 15624.92 % Chg from Prev day 0.08 0.11 0.25 -0.60 -1.22
Source: Reuters

European equities are trading lower on the back of disagreement between European leaders for the regions banking union. Asian markets ended on a positive note and US stock futures are trading on a flat note. GfK German Consumer Climate remained unchanged at 5.9mark in the month of September.

Sensex Nikkei Kospi FTSE

as at 4.30 pm 25 September12
Currency Open 79.56 1.293 53.46 High 79.76 1.2952 53.62 Low 79.495 1.2885 53.245 Current 79.64 1.2909 53.41 % Chg from Prev day 0.08 -0.16 -0.04
Source: Reuters

UKs British Bankers' Association (BBA) Mortgage Approvals increased by 1,700 to 30,500 in August from previous rise of 28,800 in July. Spot gold prices are trading on a mixed note taking cues from mixed global market sentiments. However, sharp upside in the prices was capped as a result of strength in the US Dollar Index (DX). Appreciation in the Indian Rupee also prevented sharp upside in the yellow metal prices. Taking cues from marginal gains in gold prices along with upside in the base metals set, Spot silver prices increased around 0.3 percent today. However, stronger DX capped sharp gains in the white metal prices. The base metals pack traded on a positive note today on account of mixed global market sentiments along with decline in LME inventories apart from Copper. However, a stronger DX restricted further positive movement in the prices. Appreciation in the Indian Rupee also prevented sharp gains in prices on the MCX. Nymex crude oil prices increased 0.4 percent on the back of short coverings by the market participants along with expectation that US consumer confidence may rise in September. However, expectations of rise in US crude oil inventories coupled with strength in the DX capped sharp gains in the prices. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to increase by 2.0 million barrels for the week ending on 21st September 2012.

Dollar Index Euro/$ Spot INR/$ Spot

as at 4.30 pm 25 September12
Commodity Spot Gold Comex Gold Dec12 MCX Gold Oct12 Spot Silver Comex Silver Dec12 MCX Silver Dec12 Crude Oil Nymex Nov 12 ICE -Brent Crude Oil MCX Crude Oil Oct12 Copper LME - 3 Month MCX Copper Nov12 Zinc LME - 3 Month Zinc MCX - Sept12 Lead LME - 3 Month Lead MCX Sept12 Nickel LME - 3 Month Nickel MCX Sept12 Aluminum LME - 3 Month Aluminum MCX Sept12 Unit Open High Low Last % Chg from Prev day

$/oz $/oz Rs/10g ms $/oz $/oz Rs/kg $/bbl $/bbl Rs/bbl $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg $/tonne Rs/kg

1763.65 1767.5 31478.00 33.94 34.055 62599 92.11 109.93 4914 8200.00 442.90 2100.00 110.75 2265 120.55 18040 962.00 2084.00 110.50

1769.11 1771.9 31518.00 34.18 34.255 62780 92.77 110.79 4968 8263.00 445.70 2126.50 111.90 2288 121.50 18275 971.80 2100.00 111.00

1761.44 1764.2 31440.00 33.87 33.930 62540 91.80 109.44 4914 8200.00 442.90 2097.00 110.70 2262 120.50 18040 962.00 2080.00 110.35

1764.40 1766.9 31466.00 34.03 34.065 62644 92.26 110.37 4948 8235.00 444.25 2119.50 111.45 2284 121.15 18220 969.20 2095.75 110.65

0.04 0.02 0.10 0.27 0.16 0.37 0.36 0.51 0.94 0.69 0.40 1.12 0.63 1.07 0.66 1.22 0.99 0.56 0.27

Source: Reuters.

Commodities Evening Update

Tuesday | September 25, 2012

International Commodities
Outlook

In the evening session, we expect precious metals, base metals and crude oil prices to trade with upward bias anticipating favourable data from the US economy in the later part of the evening today. However, strength in the DX is expected to cap sharp gains. However, expectation of rise in the US API Crude oil inventories in the evening today is expected to pressurize prices on the downside.

Technical Outook for evening session 25 September12 ( CMP as of 5.00 pm)

Commodity Gold Oct'12 Spot Gold Silver Dec12 Spot Silver Crude Oil Oct '12 Nymex Crude Oil Nov12 Natural Gas Sep12 LME Copper Copper Nov'12 Zinc Sep12 Lead Sep12 Aluminum Sep12 Nickel Sep12 Unit Rs/10 gm $/oz Rs /kg $/oz Rs /bbl $/bbl Rs /mmBtu $/tonne Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Support 2 31290 1746 61425 32.98 4835 90.25 148.4 8133 440.5 109.85 119.7 109.25 952.5 Support 1 31415 1755 61923 33.46 4907 91.55 150.4 8178 442.5 110.55 120.2 109.8 958.4 CMP 31445 1764.3 62613 34.06 4953 92.43 152.8 8235 444.7 111.6 121.25 110.7 969.8 Resistance1 31560 1772 63010 34.47 4983 93 154.2 8265 446 112 121.6 111.1 974.5 Resistance 2 31680 1780 63610 35 5036 94 156.2 8300 448.5 112.8 122.6 111.7 979

Important Events for Today

Indicator FOMC Member Williams Speaks GfK German Consumer Climate BBA Mortgage Approvals ECB President Draghi Speaks S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y CB Consumer Confidence

Country US Euro UK Euro US US

Time (IST) 1:00 am 11:30am 2:00pm 6:30pm 6:30pm 7:30 pm

Actual 5.9 30.5K -

Forecast 6.0 28.6K 1.5% 62.9

Previous 5.9 28.4K 0.5% 60.6

Impact Medium Medium Medium High Medium High