eSPeCIAL APeC / APeC SPeCIAL

Per 2008

Per en cifras

Peru in Figures

a economa peruana contina en un ciclo de expansin que ya dura siete aos y en el que la tasa de crecimiento se ha acelerado. Mientras que en el 2007 el PBI creci un 9%, en el primer semestre del 2008 se expandi al 10.3%. Este crecimiento est basado en un entorno favorable para los negocios que promueve la creacin de empleo y la mejora del poder adquisitivo de la poblacin. El sector pblico ha contribuido a este crecimiento a travs de la inversin descentralizada en sectores claves para la asistencia social como la educacin, la salud, infraestructura, etc. A diferencia de los perodos anteriores de crecimiento econmico, el ciclo actual est acompaado por la estabilidad macroeconmica: supervit fiscal y en balanza de pagos (acumulacin de reservas internacionales netas). Esto reduce la vulnerabilidad de la economa ante un ambiente externo negativo. Adicionalmente a la estabilidad macroeconmica, los indicadores sociales tambin han comenzado a registrar mejoras, un factor que argumenta ms a favor de la estabilidad poltica y social. Sin embargo, la inflacin se ha elevado a niveles mximos -desde que el esquema de inflacin objetivo fue adoptado en el 2002- y por encima del rango meta de 1-3 por ciento. La razn principal ha sido la persistente alta inflacin de los alimentos importados. Finalmente, a pesar de la incertidumbre del desarrollo mundial de la economa, la perspectiva para la economa peruana es todava optimista. Proyectamos que crezca a tasas del 8.9% en el 2008 y del 7.0 % en el 2009; ambas muy por encima del promedio histrico para el Per.

he Peruvian economy continues in an expansion cycle that has lasted almost seven years. This growth cycle has accelerated in recent quarter. While in 2007 the GDP grew at a rate of 9.0%, it rose by 10.3% in the first six months of 2008. This growth is based on a favorable business environment that promotes employment creation and hence improves the purchasing power of the population. The Public Sector has contributed to growth through decentralized public investment in key sectors for social welfare such as education, health, roads, etc. Unlike previous periods of economic growth, the current expansion cycle comes with macroeconomic stability: fiscal surplus and a positive balance of payments (accumulation of net international reserves). This reduces the economic vulnerability to a negative external environment. In addition to macroeconomic stability, social indicators have also started to improve, a fact that argues in favor of more political and social stability. However, inflation has risen to its highest levels since the inflation targeting framework was adopted in 2002 and above the 1- 3 percent target range. The main reason has been the persistently high imported food inflation. Finally, despite the uncertainty of the world economy, the outlook for the Peruvian economy is still optimistic. We expect the Peruvian economy to grow at rates of 8.9% in 2008 and 7.0% in 2009, rates well above the historic average for Peru.

24

PerSPeCtIvAS eConmICAS / eConomIC ouTLook

Datos Generales
Poblacin (millones) Ranking Doing Business Pobreza (% de poblacin)

2006
27.8 65 44.5

2007
28.2 56 39.3

2008E
28.6 62 37.8

General Data
Population (millions) Doing Business Ranking Poverty (% of population)

PBI por Sector Econmico GDP by Sector

Pesca Minera Agricultura Fishing Mining Industria Agriculture 6% 1% Manufacturing 8% 15% Construccin Construction 6% Comercio Commerce 15% Electricidad Electricity 2%

Deuda ME Largo Plazo Fitch Ratings Standard & Poor's Moody's

Rating BBBBBBBa1

Last change 4/22/08 7/14/08 8/19/08

Outlook Stable Stable Stable

LT Debt (foreign currency) Fitch Ratings Standard & Poor's Moody's

Datos Econmicos ($MM)

PBI PBI per cpita (US$) Demanda Interna (% var) Inflacin anual (%) TC fin de periodo (S/. xUS$) Balanza Cuenta Corriente Deuda Externa (% PBI) Balanza Fiscal (% PBI)

2007
109.2 3,865 11.6 3.9 2.98 1.5 29.8 3.1

2008E
139.8 4,392 11.2 6.8 2.65 -2.5 24.1 2.1

2009E
164.9 4,861 8.5 6.8 2.60 -4.4 22.1 0.8

Economic Data (US$ bn)

GDP GDP per capita (US$) Domestic demand (% chg) Consumer Price (% chg YoY) Exchange rate (end of period) Current Account Balance External Debt (% of GDP) Fiscal Balance (% of GDP)

Servicios Services 37%

Impuestos Taxes 10%

(var. % / YoY % chg) 8.9 7.7 8.9 7.0

PBI / GDP

Sector Real (% var) PBI Sector Primario Agricultura Pesca Minera e Hidrocarburos Sector No Primario Manufactura Construccin Comercio Servicios

2007 9.0 2.8 3.1 7.1 2.1 10.3 10.6 16.5 10.5 9.1

2008E 8.9 5.5 3.6 1.7 7.4 10.4 9.7 16.6 10.9 9.2

2009E 7.0 4.2 2.8 1.9 6.9 8.0 7.5 14.6 7.1 7.2

Real Sector (% chg) GDP Primary sectors Agriculture Fishing Mining and Fuel Non Primary sectors Manufacturing Construction Commerce Services

6.7 5.1 4.0

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008E

2009E

Demanda Interna e Inversin Privada Domestic Demand and Private Investment

(var. % / YoY % chg)
Demanda interna / Domestic demand Inversin Privada / Private Investment

IPC (% var) Inflacin total Inflacin subyacente Inflacin importada Inflacin de alimentos
Sector Pblico (% de PBI) Resultado Econmico Resultado Primario Ingresos Fiscales Gasto no Finaciero

2007 3.9 3.1 10.7 6.0

2007 3.1 4.8 17.9 14.6

2008E 6.8 5.1 5.6 8.9

2008E 2.1 3.0 15.8 12.7

2009E CPI (% chg) 6.8 Inflation 5.0 Core inflation n.d. Imported inflation n.d. Food and beverages
2009E Public Sector (% of GDP) 0.8 Overall Balance 2.9 Primary Balance 15.9 Fiscal Revenues 12.8 Non-Financial Expenditure

20.1

23.2

12.0 6.3 3.7 8.1 4.0 5.7

10.0

11.6

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

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eSPeCIAL APeC / APeC SPeCIAL

Per 2008

Empleo Urbano / Urban Employment

(% var.) 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Per Resto/Prov inces Lima

Inflacin / Inflation
(var. % / % chg)

8.00
Total Subyacente / Core

6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008E 2009E

Resultado Fiscal / Fiscal Balance

(% del PBI / % of GDP) 3.1 2.1 2.2 0.6

ndice General Bolsa de Valores de Lima Lima Stock Exchange General Index
(v ar. % en dlares / YoY % chg in US$)

187

76
-1.0 -1.7 -0.3

61 25

46

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007E 2008E 2009E

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Capitalizacin Burstil Bolsa de Valores de Lima Lima Stock Exchange: Market Capitalization
(en millones de US$ / in US$ billions)

2007 (*): IED por Pas / FDI Stock by Country

(en millones de US$ / in US$ billions)
2.7 2.6 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 1.9

108 60 36 16 20

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

Spain U.S. United Kingdom Panama Netherlands Chile Mexico Colombia Brazil Canada Others
(*) A junio / To June

4.6

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PerSPeCtIvAS eConmICAS / eConomIC ouTLook

Sector Externo (US$ MM)

Balanza Cuenta Corriente Bal. Cta. Cte. (% PBI) Balanza Comercial Trminos de Intercambio (% var) Remesas Deuda Externa Total Deuda Externa Total (% PBI) Inversin Privada directa (flujo) Reservas Internacionales Netas

2007
1.5 1.4 8.4 3.6 2.1 32.6 29.8 5.3 27.7

2008E
-2.5 -1.8 6.0 -5.2 2.7 32.1 24.1 11.8 37.9

2009E
-4.4 -2.7 2.9 -4.4 3.0 32.3 22.1 10.5 42.3

External Accounts (US$ bn)

Current Account Balance Curr. Acc. Bal. (% of GDP) Trade Balance Terms of Trade (% chg) Remittances Total External Debt Total Ext. Debt (% of GDP) Foreign Direct Investment (flow) International Net Reserves
2007 (*): IED por Sector / FDI Stock by Sector (% )
Otros Others 3% Financiero Financial 13% Comercio Commerce 4%

Minera Mining 19%

Comunicacin Comunication 31%

Balanza Comercial (US$ MM)

Exportaciones Productos Tradicionales De los cuales: Metales Productos No Tradicionales Importaciones Bienes de Consumo Materias Primas Bienes de Capital Balanza Comercial

2007
28.0 21.5 17.3 6.3 19.6 3.2 10.4 5.9 8.4

2008E
34.8 27.1 21.2 7.5 28.8 3.8 15.5 9.3 6.0

2009E
38.1 29.6 22.5 8.3 35.0 4.5 19.1 11.3 3.0

Trade Balance (US$ bn)

Exports Traditional Goods Of which: Metals Non Traditional Goods Imports Consumer Goods Raw Materials Capital Goods Trade Balance

Servicio Services 2%

Industria Petrleo Energa Energy Manufacturing Oil 11% 15% 1%

Construccin Construction 1%

(*) A junio / To June

2007: Eportaciones por Destino 2007: Exports by Destination (%)

Germany 3% U.S. 19% Canada 6% Switzerland 8% Chile 6% Others 35% Spain 4% Japan 8% China 11%

Balanza comercial con APeC / Trade balance with APeC

Exportaciones / Exports
(en millones de US$ / US$ billions)

Pas EE.UU. China Japn Canad Chile Otros Total

2006
5,768 2,261 1,228 1,607 1,420 1,653

2007
5,250 3,042 2,184 1,785 1,693 1,877

% var / % chg -9.0 34.6 77.8 11.1 19.3 13.6 13.6

13,937

15,831

Country U.S. China Japan Canada Chile Others Total

Fuente: INEI, BCR, Sunat, BVL Estimaciones: Estudios Econmicos - Scotiabank

Importaciones / Imports
(en millones de US$ / US$ billions)

2007: Importaciones por Pas de Origen 2007: Imports by Country of Origin (%)
Country U.S. China Chile Japan Mexico Others Total
Colombia 5% U.S. Canada Ecuador 18% 2% 7% Brazil 9% Chile 4% Others 37% Argentina 6% China 12%
25

Pas EE.UU. China Chile Japn Mxico Otros Total

2006 2,509 1,586 864 563 520 1,357 7,399

2007 3,603 2,474 884 790 758 1,781 10,291

% var / % chg 43.6 56.0 2.3 40.5 45.6 31.2 39.1

Source: INEI, BCR, Sunat, BVL Estimates: Research Department - Scotiabank