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September 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
UK mobile call volumes falling despite increasing use of contract plans with large inclusive bundles of minutes
September 2012
Core question: Can data services & other revenue streams grow enough to offset the probable flattening & decline of voice & messaging? Uncomfortable answer: probably not, based on recent evidence Disruption (positive & negative) is both inevitable & essential
September 2012
Demand
Messaging is already fragmented & becoming more so. It is already a feature, not a service, for many use-cases. Can it continue to be monetised directly? Very uncomfortable answer: not much, for anyone with a data connection Disruption is likely to be terminal, in the medium term
September 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
Sep 2012
Most bundled products are cheaper than constituent parts Unclear where telcos can magic extra value from Unlikely customers too stupid to spot implicit price rises
APIs
Definite uses for embedding voice/messaging in apps Telephony or SMS arent always the best raw ingredients WebRTC on the horizon
RCS / RCSe. No. VoLTE really just ToLTE. Necessary but too late to matter
Sep 2012
Voice Telephony
Now: 2G & 3G
Voice
Telephony
Telephony Gaming, CEBP, surveillance, social voice, TV voice etc Video, context, sense
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
Video
September 2012
new standardised services are neither necessary, nor sufficient. They are irrelevant at best, and actively damaging at worst.
Sep 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
Owned & operated by mobile operators Usable by anyone, not just subscribers Via apps & public Internet Telco-OTT Services
Sep 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
Internet
Telco service
Telco
Billing & ID
Sep 2012
Internet
Not just voice & messaging: Telco-OTT Cloud, Content, Social, TV, Connectivity..
Sep 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
Acquisition
Managing cannibalisation
Network awareness
Design
Sep 2012
Software mindset
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
Synergies
Web / app philosophies (eg freemium) Security Scalability Flexible platform for multiple services/features Good QoE (UI design, battery life, voice quality, OSs etc)
But also: (Probably) Lawful intercept / emergency (Possibly) integration with billing / OSS (Maybe) interop with legacy / IMS / OTT services & enablers (Maybe) integration with network QoS mechanisms
Sep 2012 Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2012
OSS Telco-OTT Application platform Flexible Rapid update Differentiation Mostly proprietary logic, may use standard platform Security, session mgmt etc
Web
Internet
Telco core
Various backend integration strategies
Sep 2012
Conclusions
Traditional telephony & SMS future looks bleak Some mileage in bundling, marketing voice better, APIs etc.
But only postponing the inevitable RCS unlikely & may damage things
Fragmentation is desirable, valuable & inevitable OTT plays will dominate in usage & value, maybe not revenue
Telco-OTT strategy becoming mainstream But not easy to design, manage or build
Ownership & infrastructure decisions determine scalability & flexibility Investment in platform approach is desirable, if possible
Sep 2012
Telco OTT
@chadwallacehart
Networks architectures
IMS Web Telco-OTT
User interfaces
phone app
browser
Technologies
SIP
Service quality
NAT & firewall traversal (i.e. HTTP & HTTPS only)
Near PSTN-quality media & availability Consistent experience across devices & interfaces
Imminent
Flexibility
Quickly adjust to changing service needs Works with many infrastructure & client devices
Security
Service quality
NAT & firewall traversal (i.e. HTTP & HTTPS only)
Near PSTN-quality media & availability Consistent experience across devices & interfaces
Regulatory compliance
Current expectations: E911, lawful intercept, taxes
Imminent
Flexibility
Off-the-shelf, but programmable for flexible, rapid changes Quickly interoperable with any device & network
Security
Service quality
Client-side technologies to overcome packet-loss & jitter
Make all traffic look like web-traffic (http & https, SSL, etc.)
Regulatory compliance
Out-of-the box regulatory compliance
My SIP Switch
Opensourcesip.org
Too complex difficult to implement & maintain Too costly OPEX & CAPEX
Too long time-to-service Too risky many unknowns Too costly creation, maintenance & evolution
WS
WS
WS
WS
LB-L LB-G
Internet
Database
Web servers AS media M Q C Load balancers Firewalls TDM
TDM
TDM
Telco-OTT
WS
WS
WS
WS
SMX
SMX
SMX
Peering partners
LB-L LB-G
LB-L SLB-G
Internet
Managed IP Network
Internet
30
30
High-scale
AS SMX
SMX
SMX
SMX
Peering partners
LB-L SLB-G
Managed IP Network
Internet
Managed IP Network
Internet
9/27/2012
31
Virtual machines
Horizontal scaling
Elasticity Manager
Virtualization Layer
32
TAS ENUM
DNS/DDNS ISC
CS
SIP ISC
IM&P MCU
HSS
PCRF
SIP clients
700M
250M 90%
>100
Tunneled Service Control Function brings firewall traversal & QoE to Apps
Individual users real-time comms & data services within a TLS or DTLS tunnel Strict firewall traversal
Appears as SSL port 443
Service provider data center Web SIP MSRP
QoE controls
Tunnel redundancy Bandwidth controls per app voice vs. data Admission control - server transaction load User authentication Privacy and confidentiality Service delivery security (Net-SAFE)
Security
TSCF SDK
5/30/2012
36
5/30/2012
MOS estimates based on R-factor scores at the SBC. MOS at user device typically higher.
37
TSCF is open
3GPP technical requirement TR 33.830 (V.0.2.0)
TSCF approved for inclusion in TR SA3#68 in Bratislava (July) Supporting companies:
Acme Packet Intel China Mobile RIM Ericsson Vodafone ZTE Huawei Free TSCF client source code available Reference applications & tools
Linphone TSCF client tsc_sip_client, tsc_sip_server sipp Wireshark plug-in
Acme Packet Interconnect 2012
Android 2.3/3.x/4.0 Honeycomb (2.3), Gingerbread (3.x), Ice Cream Sandwich (4.0)
38
Web-based RTC
Services data center
Web servers SIP core MSRP servers
Any network
Any network
HTTP(s)
SIP RTP
MSRP
HTTP(s)
MSRP(s)
App
Data
Voice video, IM
Video/file share
Browser
Data
Voice video
Video/file share
Net-Net
Telco-OTT architectures should resemble web-architectures without sacrificing key service-enablement features
Telco OTT service delivery challenges are numerous, but surmountable - i.e. TSCF, effective core session management, smart clients, etc.
TU Me is...
Communications timeline Voice + text
TU Me is not..
Not meant to undermine Telco value.. Instead create new categories. The game has changedGoogle, Facebook, Apple, Microsofthave been innovating for years !! Not a tricky maneuver to distract consumers or confuse the marketplace We're building a real service for real people
DIY Lessons
Don't do fake digital... Customers will know. Have a vision and do the vision. Break down your internal walls: digital has to be the plan, not the enemy or an afterthought
Shoot for Near-Telco-Grade, not perfection, and compete on quality and vision
Build an infrastructure that will allow you to expand
Incubate + risk
Twitter emerged from a different product idea nobody strategized it Startups incubate concepts and discover products, Telcos need to invest a similar way. Plan two years of risk before expecting good things Think about the larger value picturenot about squeezing more out of old models
Digital Infrastructure
Telcos can go industrial faster and jump to the right infrastructure
Invest in the future or prepare to be a dumb pipe (which might be fine, too)
Voice and text will have near zero value soon only connectivity and new services matter
Break down the technical walls that prevent you from taking advantage of the opportunities
TU Me Infrastructure
Application Analytics
Enum
Public Internet
Telco-OTT: Challenges
challenges of their own Mobiles/Tablet require support for Wi-Fi and Mobile broadband networks
CounterPath www.counterpath.com
Creates an SSL tunnel signaling and media to go over a single tunnel Less complicated Local media can be run locally Enabling a consistent user experience Overcome Internet restrictions Combines the SIP/RTP over a
single connection (i.e., ports 80 or 443)
Better packet loss performance Redundant data (RTP) Secure Encrypted (TLS)
50
CounterPath www.counterpath.com
Questions
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