M E M O R AN D U M TO: Interested Parties FROM: RE: DATE: Global Strategy Group NY-21 Survey Results October 3, 2012

Bill Owens holds a 14-point lead heading into final month

With just one month to go until Election Day, Bill Owens has a strong double-digit lead over challenger Matt Doheny in the race for Congress in New Yorks 21st Congressional District, according to a recent poll by Global Strategy Group. The poll surveyed 400 likely general election voters between September 30th and October 2nd 2012 and has a margin of error of +/4.9%. Key findings include: Bill Owens continues to hold a strong, double-digit lead over Republican challenger Matt Doheny. In our latest poll, Congressman Bill Owens hits the 50% mark and leads Matt Doheny by 14 points (50% to 36%) with another 14% undecided. This represents a similar finding to a July Global Strategy Group poll in which Owens led Doheny 48% to 35%, and a Siena College Research Institute poll in September in which Owens led 49% to 36%. Owens enjoys a decided advantage in personal popularity over Matt Doheny especially in the part of the district where the candidates previously ran. Bill Owens is better known and better regarded in the district than Matt Doheny. Owens (46% favorable/22% unfavorable) enjoys a more than two-to-one favorable to unfavorable ratio, while nearly as many have an unfavorable impression of Doheny (31% favorable/27% unfavorable) as have a favorable impression. This is particularly apparent in the part of the district that remains from the old 23rd district, where the candidates are better known. Here, Owens has a personal rating of 61% favorable/24% unfavorable compared to Doheny who receives a rating of 37% favorable/30% unfavorable. Owens leads on a number of key issues. Voters believe Owens is on the side of the middle class by a 46% to 25% margin, that he will protect Medicare benefits by a 42% to 23% margin and that he will make it his top priority to create jobs by a 37% to 29% margin. The political environment favors the Democrats in the district, despite the Republican registration advantage in the district. Democrats have a clear edge at the top of the ticket with Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney by double-digits in the district (51% to 39%) even though 47% of those interviewed are registered Republicans versus 29% who are Democrats. Mitt Romney (41% favorable/53% unfavorable) is a drag on the GOP ticket while President Obama (55%/41%) is well-liked with a net positive favorable rating.

The bottom line is this: Owens has a strong and clear advantage heading into November. Owens now gets 50% of the vote, meaning that Matt Doheny has the difficult task of persuading nearly all undecided voters to his side. That task is made that much more problematic by the fact that Congressman Owens has higher favorables and lower unfavorables than Doheny and Owens has a clear advantage on a number of key issues.

NEW YORK WASHINGTON, D.C. HARTFORD LOS ANGELES

GLOBALSTRATEGYGROUP.COM