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October 8, 2012
EZCORP Inc.
CFO Departure, Control Shareholder Bonus
Our Call While outside the items likely to drive fundamentals, the loss of a CFO and the control shareholder bumping his management fee $1.2 million to $7.2 million per year cannot be viewed favorably. Our analytics suggest the lowered guidance and EPS misses reported in the first three quarters of FY12 are less function of weak growth in the U.S. and more a function of corporate overhead growth tied in part to the company's acquistion efforts. 8K In an 8K released on Thursday, EZPW announced the renewed terms of its consulting agreement with Madison Park (owned by its control shareholder), the departure of its CFO, Stephen Stamp, and the appointment of Mark Kuchenrither as CFO. Mr. Kuchenrither was promoted to Executive VP in May 2012 and Mr. Stamp reported to Mr. Kuchenrither. Consulting Arrangement Once a year, Madison Park renews its consulting arrangement with EZPW. Madison Park is owned by the holder of the company's B shares, which are voting. The public A shares are non-voting. Under the new agreement, Madison Park's annual consulting fee will be increased from the $6.0 million paid during fiscal '12 to $7.2 million. Our understanding is that the management of EZPW presented a variety of alternative arrangements that were hoped to be more shareholder friendly, but these agreements were rejected. CFO No specifics were given regarding the departure of Mr. Stamps, but based on changes made during the course of the year, we believe the company has been looking for more of an operationally oriented CFO. FY12 Even in the June quarter, the company has been able to realize segment level EBITDA growth of 21%, but the combination of 23% growth in corporate overhead and higher interest and depreciation/amortization cost tied in part to acquisitions pushed EPS growth down to 6.4%.
Neutral
EZPW Price: Close $21.91 Price Target $24.00
Mortgage Finance & Specialty Finance
Henry J. Coffey, Jr., CFA (615) 760-1472
hcoffey@sterneagee.com
Company Data
Rating Price: Close Price Target 52-Week Range Market Capitalization (M) Shares Outstanding (M) Avg. Daily Vol. (000) Dividend Yield Assets (M) Book Value Price/Book Neutral $21.91 $24.00 $21.39 - $33.38 $1,095.2 48.2 379.0 0.0% $756.5 $13.23 166%
2012E (Curr)
0.78A 0.73A 0.56A 0.68 2.75 8.0x
2013E (Curr)
0.78 0.76 0.69 0.77 3.00 7.3x
2014E (Curr)
3.30 6.6x
80 70 60 50 40 30 20 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 EZCORP Inc. Russell 2000 Total Return Index (RSII)
Source: FactSet
Important Disclosures regarding Price Target Risks, Valuation Methodology, Regulation Analyst Certification, Investment Banking, Ratings Definitions, and potential conflicts of interest begin on Page I of the Appendix Section. 800 Shades Creek ParkwaySuite 700Birmingham, AL 35209205-949-3500
Sterne, Agee & Leach Inc. is Member NYSE, FINRA, SIPC
October 8, 2012
The June quarter was the first quarter in which the company felt the bite of falling jewelry scrapping volumes and scrapping margins, but the company reported EPS below consensus estimates and the rate suggested by the companys previous guidance of 20%. Most of the lower results have been, in our view, primarily self imposed and tied in our view to higher growth in segment level administrative cost and higher growth in corporate cost. The higher corporate costs are tied heavily, in our view, to spending on closed and cancelled acquisitions as well as the additional cost tied to its payment to Madison in FY12.
U.S. & Canada $65.8 $37.5 $50.0 $39.2 $0.6 $193.1 ($62.9) ($9.4) $120.8 ($66.0) $54.8 ($6.0) $48.9
Latin America $10.2 $4.5 $6.2 $10.4 $0.6 $31.8 ($9.5) ($0.6) $21.6 ($8.8) $12.9 ($4.3) $8.5
Other Int. $3.9 0.16 $4.0 $0.0 ($1.3) $2.8 ($0.9) $1.8 ($0.2) $4.2 $5.9 Cons. $76.0 $42.0 $56.2 $53.5 $1.4 $229.0 ($72.5) ($11.3) $145.3 ($75.7) $69.6 ($12.2) $4.2 $61.6 ($10.5) $51.1 $0.78 $0.73 $0.56 $0.68 $2.75
5% 8% 2% 39% -1%
18%
During the first six months (December and March quarters) of FY12, net revenues and store level contribution in its U.S. and Canada stores were up 13% and 22%. This group reported a considerable reduction in gross revenues due primarily to falling scrapping volumes and negative year-over-year growth because of higher segment level administrative cost. Consolidated segment EBITDA increased at a respectable level, but due to higher corporate overhead, higher interest cost and higher depreciation/amortization cost, all tied primarily to acquisition-related activity, EPS increased only 6% and we are estimating negative year-overyear EPS growth in the pending September quarter.
Page 2
October 8, 2012
APPENDIX SECTION
Company Description:
EZCORP, Inc. is an Austin, Texas-based branch-based lender that offers pawn and short-term payday loans (PDL, called signature loans by the company) to consumers through a network of 332 pawn stores and 477 PDL stores in 18 states and Mexico.
Research Disclosures:
Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc. makes a market in the following subject company EZCORP Inc.. Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc.'s research analysts receive compensation that is based upon various factors, including Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc.'s total revenues, a portion of which is generated by investment banking activities. Sterne Agee & Leach, Inc. expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject company and/or companies in the next three months.
Valuation Methodology:
Methodology for assigning ratings and target prices includes qualitative and quantitative factors including an assessment of industry size, structure, business trends and overall attractiveness; management effectiveness; competition; visibility; financial condition; and expected total return, among other factors. These factors are subject to change depending on overall economic conditions or industry or company-specific occurrences. Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc., analysts base valuations on a combination of forward looking earnings multiples, price-to-revenue multiples, and enterprise-value-to-revenue ratios. Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc., believes this accurately reflects the strong absolute value of earnings, the strong earnings growth rate, the inherent profitability, and adjusted balance sheet factors. Additional company-specific valuation methodology is available through Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc.
October 8, 2012 UNDERPERFORM: We expect this stock to underperform the industry over the next 12 months. RESTRICTED: Restricted list requirements preclude comment.
Ratings Distribution:
Rating Category Buy Neutral Underperform Count 226 223 22 Percent 47.98% 47.35% 4.67% Count 16 11 0 IB Serv./ Past 12Mos. Percent 7.08% 4.93% 0.00%
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AVAILABLE UPON REQUEST: Contact Robert Hoehn at 1-212-338-4731. Other Disclosures: Opinions expressed are our present opinions only. This material is based upon information that we consider reliable, but we do not represent that it is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied upon as such. Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc., its affiliates, or one or more of its officers, employees, or consultants may, at times, have long or short or options positions in the securities mentioned herein and may act as principal or agent to buy or sell such securities. Copyright 2012 Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
To receive price charts or other disclosures on the companies mentioned in this report, please visit our website at https:// sterneagee.bluematrix.com/sellside/Disclosures.action or contact Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc. toll-free at (800) 240-1438 or (205) 949-3689.
Founded in 1901, Sterne Agee has been providing investors like you with high-quality investment opportunities for over a century. During the early years, our founders prominently established themselves in the financial securities industry in the southeastern United States. Today, we have expanded to serve all regions of the country. Sterne, Agee is headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama with offices in 22 states. Sterne Agee is one of the largest independent firms in the country. Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc. is a division of Sterne Agee Group, Inc., which also includes The Trust Company of Sterne, Agee & Leach, Inc.; Sterne Agee Asset Management, Inc.; Sterne Agee Clearing, Inc.; and Sterne Agee Financial Services, Inc.www.sterneagee.com
JT Cacciabaudo
(212) 763-8288
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