El nino And la nina The Little Girl La Nina has had an outsized impact across globe since manifesting

itself in mid-2010. La Nina and its equally rumbustious sibling, El Nino, come about when the waters of the eastern and central Pacific Ocean along the equator become unusually cold or warm. These changes in the Pacific produce swings in atmospheric pressure, winds, temperature, and rainfall that have a global impact. These coupled with changes in the ocean and atmosphere is collectively called the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). For India, an El Nino is often a cause for concern because of its adverse impact on the south-west monsoon; this happened in 2009. A La Nina, on the other hand, is often beneficial for the monsoon, especially in the latter half. The La Nina that appeared in the Pacific in 2010 probably helped last years south-west monsoon end on a favourable note. But then, it also contributed to the deluge in Australia, which resulted in one of that countrys worst natural disasters with large parts of the north-east under water. It wreaked similar havoc in southeastern Brazil and played a part in the heavy rains and consequent flooding that have affected Sri Lanka. It is becoming increasingly clear that global warming is contributing to the impact that ENSO has. The Indian Ocean is warming rapidly. There are already indications that this warming along with the growing temperature of the western Pacific is influencing the effect of a La Nina. A paper, ominously titled The Perfect Ocean for Drought, which was published in the journal Science in 2003, linked the prolonged droughts from 1998 to 2002 that afflicted the United States, southern Europe, and south-west Asia to the warmth of these ocean waters during a protracted La Nina. Such heightened ocean temperatures may well have played a crucial part in weather-related events in recent months. While the La Nina that developed in mid-2010 lent a helping hand to the south-west monsoon, the warmth of the tropical Indian Ocean may have prevented a more equitable distribution of rainfall eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, and much of West Bengal received far too little of it. The warming of the Indian Ocean and western Pacific probably provided the extra moisture and energy for the exceptionally heavy rains that Australia and Sri Lanka experienced. It could be one reason why in India the north-east monsoon, which is usually retarded by a La Nina, has this time seen a surfeit of rain. The writing on the wall is clear enough: global warming will worsen the swings of climate variability brought about by factors like ENSO, making extreme weather events such as droughts and floods more frequent. The world needs to pay heed. The El Nino ocean-weather pattern is linked to droughts in Australia and floods in parts of South America, while its sibling La Nina causes the opposite, with the two phenomena occurring at irregular intervals. A powerful La Nina triggered record floods in eastern Australia in 2011 and has been blamed for the withering drought in Texas and severe dry spells in South America, hitting corn and soy crops. Forecasters say an El Nino might develop later in the year. Following are some questions and answers on El Nino and La Nina and their billion-dollar impacts on economies.

WHAT IS EL NINO? El Nino, also called "Little Boy" or "Christ Child", is a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific. Peruvian fishermen noticed the arrival of the warm waters occurred usually around Christmas. The phenomena, which occur every three to seven years, led to more rains in that part of South America and a drop in the fish catch. Strong El Ninos can lead to a dramatic weakening of the trade winds that blow west across the Pacific, triggering drought in Southeast Asia and Australia and parts of Africa. Some El Ninos can also affect the Indian monsoon by reducing rainfall, threatening crops and livelihoods. WHAT IS THE IMPACT? Globally, El Nino can trigger above average rains in northern Peru and Bolivia, drought in Southeast Asia, Australia, India and northeast Brazil, cyclones in the central Pacific and stormy weather in southern and western United States. El Ninos also tend to cut the number of Atlantic hurricanes but boost the number of storms in the eastern Pacific. In Australia, strong El Ninos can slash wheat crop output, threaten water supplies by cutting river flows, shrink city reservoirs and dry out forests, triggering bush fires. Major El Ninos occurred in 1982-82 and 1997-98 but the weak El Nino of 2002-2003 also led to severe drought in Australia. WHAT IS LA NINA? La Nina, or "Little Girl", is an abnormal cooling of ocean temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific. This triggers stronger trade winds across the Pacific that pile up very warm warmers in the western Pacific and around northern Australia, triggering above average rains. Typically, it also boosts the number of cyclones during the November-April Australian cyclone season. IMPACTS Just like El Nino, the weather impact can be global. In Indonesia and parts of Australia, La Nina can bring flooding rains, affecting wheat, sugar, palm oil and rubber crops as well as coal and iron ore mining.

In Argentina and the U.S. Plains, La Nina can trigger drought, hurting the Argentine corn and soy crops and the main U.S. hard red winter wheat crop. La Nina tends to lead to wind patterns that favor the formation of more hurricanes in the Atlantic and fewer in the eastern Pacific, potentially meaning a greater threat to U.S. Gulf oil and gas assets and cities in Florida, the Gulf Coast and eastern seaboard. Major recent La Nina events occurred in 1973-76, 1988-89 and 2010-12. GLOBAL LINKS Heat from the tropics drives the global climate by fuelling ocean and atmospheric patterns that shift the warmth around the globe. Warm tropical waters fuel evaporation and add moisture to the atmosphere needed for clouds to form. The rising air also drives atmospheric circulation patterns that help shift the moisture and warmth around to other parts of the globe. So disrupting this pattern can alter the climate elsewhere. Scientists say climate change might also be adding an extra kick to La Nina and El Nino because warmer oceans add more fuel to storms and weather patterns.