TRAFFIC DATA ANALYSIS - Often begins with some type of statistical analysis Flow is defined as the number of vehicles

s per unit time passing a point in space, and is usually expressed in vehicles per hour. Volume is the number of vehicles counted in a specified time

Formula for variance : 2 =

where : 2 = variance xi=an individual measurement x = mean of the distribution n = sample size FOR STANDARD DEVIATION: S=

where: Sx= standard deviation of the mean S = standard deviation of the population, estimated from a sample n = sample size Chi squared test: x2 =

S=

Sx=

O = observe frequency of occurrence of a count of a particular magnitude E = expected frequency of that count (in this case based on the Poisson distribution)

EXAMPLE PROBLEM: The table below gives the distribution of 30 s counts taken on the freeway on ramp. Test the hypothesis that there is no significant difference between this count distribution and a Poisson distribution and a Poisson distribution at the 0.05 level of significance. SOLUTION: COUNT 0 1 2 3 4 FREQUENCY OF OCCURENCE 1 2 10 10 17 COUNT 5 6 7 8 >8 FREQUENCY OF OCCURENCE 5 3 1 1 8 = Pr = Where: = mean of the distribution r = particular count Pr = Poisson distribution

COUNT 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 >8

OBSERVED DISTRIBUTION 1 2 10 10 17 5 3 1 1 8

POISSON DISTRIBUTION 1.42 5.06 9.01 10.69 9.52 6.78 4.02 2.04 0.91 0.55

O 3 10 10 17 5

E 6.48 9.01 10.69 9.52 6.78

1.67 0.11 0.04 5.88 0.47

7.52

0.84 X2 = 9.21

NO. OF DEGREES OF FREEDOM: =k1m Where: k = the no. of classes in the distribution m = the no. of parameters calculated from the sample k=6 m=1 = 6 1 1 = 4 ; a = 0.05 TWO BASIC TYPES OF DATA : 1. SPOT SPEED DATA which are taken at a point or over a very short distance interval. 2. TRAVEL TIME DATA which are taken over more extended sections of roadway. The value is 9.448. Since, 9.21 < 9.448, there is no significant difference between the observed distribution and the Poisson distribution at the 0.05 level of significance.

EXAMPLE PROBLEM: Calculate the mean, standard deviation and standard deviation of the mean for the spot speed distribution below. Plot the cumulative distribution curve, and determine the 85th percentile speed. Speed groups, km/hr LOWER LIMIT 27.6 32.6 37.6 42.6 47.6 52.6 57.6 62.6 67.6 72.6 77.6 82.6 MIDPOINT 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 UPPER LIMIT 32.5 37.5 42.5 47.5 52.5 57.5 62.5 67.5 72.5 77.5 82.5 87.5 FREQUENCY OBSERVED 1 2 5 16 17 22 23 21 6 4 2 1

SOLUTION: Speed groups, km/hr LOWER LIMIT 27.6 32.6 37.6 42.6 47.6 52.6 57.6 62.6 67.6 72.6 77.6 82.6 Totals MIDPOINT (ui ) 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 UPPER LIMIT 32.5 37.5 42.5 47.5 52.5 57.5 62.5 67.5 72.5 77.5 82.5 87.5 FREQUENCY OBSERVED (fi ) 1 2 5 16 17 22 23 21 6 4 2 1 n= 120 CUMULATIVE FREQUENCY 1 3 8 24 41 63 86 107 113 117 119 120 PERCENT 0.8 2.5 6.7 20 34.2 52.5 71.7 89.2 94.2 97.5 99.2 100 CALCULATIONS fi ui 30 70 200 720 850 1, 21o 1, 380 1, 365 420 300 160 85 6,790 fi (ui)2 900 2, 450 8, 000 32, 400 42, 500 66, 550 82, 800 88, 725 29, 400 22, 500 12, 800 7, 225 396, 250

TIME MEAN SPEED: m= =

STANDARD DEVIATION: S=

= 10.1 km/hr Sx = Formula:

= 0.92 km/hr

85th percentile is approximately 64 km/hr.

E=
Where:

E = error of the mean ta = t statistic for the a level of significance and n- 1 degrees of freedom a = 1 minus the required confidence level (in decimal form) S = sample standard deviation n= sample size Example problem: A sample of 8 travel time runs is conducted over a 2 km section of roadway. The mean travel time is 1.48 min with a standard deviation of 0.20 min. if it is desired to determine the mean travel time to within 0.15 min, with a confidence level of 97.5 percent, what sample size is required? Assume that the estimate of the standard deviation does not change with the sample size. Solution: For the 97.5% level of confidence, a = 1.00 0.975 = 0.025. For n=8 and t= 2.365 E= = 0.167 > 0.15 No Good

Solve for n, assuming t unchanged: n= = = 9.94

try n = 10 E=

= 0.14 < 0.15 OK

But also try n = 9 E=

= 0.154 >0.15 No Good

Use n = 10
signs, a sample of 80 speeds is taken and found to have a mean of 71.3 km/hr with a standard deviation of 12.2 km/hr. after the warning signs are posted, a sample of 95 speeds is taken and found to have a mean .of 67.3 km/hr with a standard deviation of 13.6 km/hr. is the decrease in mean speed statically significant? Use a level of significance of 0.025. Sc =

t=

Sd = Sc Sc =
where: Sd = standard deviation of the difference of mean Sc = combined standard deviation EXAMPLE PROBLEM: A spot speed study is conducted on an approach to a dangerous intersection. Prior to the posting of warning

= 13.04

Sd = Sc t=

= 13.04 = 2.02

1.98