Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| October 13, 2012

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Sugar Oilseed Complex Spices Complex Kapas/Cotton

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar - Sr. Research Analyst vedika.narveker@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Anuj Choudhary - Research Associate anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| October 13, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
Rice export From India Is Likely To Dip This Year
Despite agriculture minister's optimistic view on export in the range of 89 million tonnes this year starting from Oct.total rice export is set to decline to 7.5 million tonnes this year due to lower production and expected higher price in the beginning of 2013.India exported more than 9.1 million tonnes of rice in 2011-12 due to competative price,higher availability for export and Thailand being out of the market.This year(new crop season) prices are likely to rule higher than last year amid lower kharif production will hamper export pace.Traditional basmati volume is likely to dip as availability will be lower this year due to lower area coverage.Besides , Vietnam and pakistan are expected to remain active sellers.In such a scenario we expect export to dip by 1.5 to 2 million tonnes fromlast season. Export will continue and India needs to develop infrastucture for better pace of export.The time has come to frame a long-term export- import policy for agriculture commodities as a switch-on and switch-off policy brings disrepute to the country.India produced a record 104.3 million tons of rice, but production is estimated to decline about 6% in 2012-13 due to delay in monsoon rains during the rice planting season this year. (Source: Agriwatch)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on Oct 12, 2012

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

18675 5676 52.81 91.86 1758

-0.69 -0.56 0.30 -0.23 -0.61

-1.39 -1.23 1.72 2.20 -1.16

5.11 5.83 -4.74 -4.85 1.69

12.79 13.99 7.84 7.55 5.29

Source: Reuters

Open system for seed germplasm mooted

Linux has changed the way we compute using software tools available through the open source. It opened up a new world of software development for those opposing the proprietary technology solutions. They have pitched for support at the ongoing Convention of Biological Diversity by making an open appeal to create a mechanism to create an open source seed bowl. Making a case for such open source for seeds at a side event here on Thursday, C. Ramanjaneyulu, Chief Executive Officer of Centre for Sustainable Agriculture, felt that Indian seed sector deserved a Linux-like system for seeds that allowed physical and legal access to repository of knowledge built over years. Those who want to conduct research can access germplasm on the condition that no one else down the line gets any exclusive rights over the material built on that, he said. A new type of germplasm exchange mechanism is needed to promote the continued free exchange of ideas and germplasm. And an open source system would help in this regard. The farmers as codevelopers should have the right over the basic material. This, however, should put no restriction on using this germplasm to develop new varieties or to experiment, he said. (Source: business Line)

End sugar open sale quota at once, says Rangarajan panel

One of the last regulated industries may soon find its wings, if the Rangarajan Committees suggestions are accepted by the Government. The committee has recommended deregulation of the sugar sector by giving freedom to mills to sell sugar in the open market. It has also suggested doing away with the system of mills providing sugar for the public distribution system, under which the mills are required to offer 10 per cent of their production to the Government at below market prices. The committee, headed by the PMEACs (Prime Minister Economic Advisory Council) Chairman, C. Rangarajan, said: Rationalisation of sugarcane pricing and liberalisation of sugar trade need to be introduced over a two-to-three year period, in a calibrated and phased manner. However, levy sugar obligation and administrative control on non-levy sugar need to be dispensed with immediately. The committee submitted its report to the Prime Minister. (Source: Business Line)

Heavy rains forecast for TN, Kerala

Heavy rain has been forecast over Kerala and Tamil Nadu during next two days ahead of the arrival of North-East monsoon or monsoon in reverse. An extended forecast for the next seven days said that rain or thundershowers would lash many places over extreme south peninsular India. As had been forecast, the withdrawal of predecessor South-West monsoon all on a sudden gathered pace on Friday. It signed off from Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, north Arabian Sea, Bihar, Vidarbha, parts of Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Marathawada, madhya Maharashtra, Konkan, Goa and central Arabian Sea. withdrawal line passed through Forbesganj, Hazaribagh, Champa, Bramhapuri, Nanded, Pune and Alibagh. Conditions are favourable for further withdrawal from Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Maharashtra, parts of West Bengal, Sikkim, the north eastern States, Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and central Arabian Sea during next three days. (Source: Business lIne)

Wheat Tumbles as Drop in U.S. Exports May Signal Slowing Demand

Wheat fell the most in more than three weeks as an unexpected drop in U.S. exports dimmed prospects for demand after a drought-fueled price surge since mid-June. Export sales totaled 279,877 metric tons in the week that ended on Oct. 4, down 8.8 percent from a week earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report. Thats less than the 400,000 to 625,000 forecast by analysts in a Bloomberg survey. Accumulated exports since June 1 are down 9 percent from the same period a year earlier, USDA data show. Prices are up 37 percent since June 15. Export sales were a little under trade expectations, Tomm Pfitzenmaier, a partner at Summit Commodity Brokerage in Des Moines, Iowa, said by telephone. U.S. grain is still overpriced compared with wheat from Russia, Ukraine and the European Union, he said. (Source:
bloomberg)

Finding no buyer, Meerut sugar mill to be run by UP govt

The Mohiuddinpur sugar mill run by the Uttar Pradesh State Sugar Corporation (UPSSC) will again be run by the UP government this year. Mohiuddinpur sugar mill was the only mill that could not find a buyer in 2010. Other 10 operational sugar mills under the Sugar Corporation were handed over to different private players by the Mayawati government. The Akhilesh Yadav government has sanctioned R10 crore for the repair and maintenance of Mohiuddinpur sugar mill. Efforts are on to make it functional by January so that it can catch up with the current crushing season that begins on November 1. Sources say, the decision to run this mill once again was taken as all efforts to sell it had failed.
(Source: Indian Express)

Indian Govt. Tries To Shift Paddy Cultivation To Eastern States

Indian govt. is trying to shift paddy cultivation from Punjab and Haryana to the eastern states like Bihar,West Bengal and eastern U.P.,where there is no shortage of water availability for paddy crop.Water level in Punjab and Haryana is continuously going down and it would not be possible to continue with paddy crop in these major paddy growing states in thye years to come.Agro-scientists say that around 1 million hectares of rice cultivation should be shifted from Punjab and Haryana to the water surplus eastern states which now account for almost 50% of the total rice production in India. (Source: Agriwatch)

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| October 13, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana future prices on Friday recovered and extended gains and settled up by 1.39% ahead of tight supplies. Also sentiments have turned positive in the past one week on account of improved festive season demand at lower price levels. Prices had declined in the month September on improved rains and reports of expected higher output in Australia, the largest supplier of chickpeas to India. In Australia, chana production rose by 70.5 percent to 8.27 lakh tonnes from 4.85 lakh tonnes in previous year. CACP has recommended a hike in minimum support price (MSP) of gram by Rs.200 to Rs.3000 a quintal and Masoor by Rs.100 to Rs.2900 a quintal for upcoming 212-13 Rabi season to boost the production of pulses. As per the statement of Finance Minister P. Chidambaram, India has raised the subsidy on imported pulses to Rs. 20/kg from the earlier Rs. 10/kg, this move is expected to increase pulses imports. As per the NCDEX circular dated 1 October, Special Margin of 10% (in cash) on the Long Side on all the running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Chana have been withdrawn with effect from beginning of day Thursday, October 04, 2012. Good rains in the month of August and September has raise prospects of Rabi pulses sowing in the coming days that would commence soon. Monsoon has recovered across India, especially in Rajasthan, one of the major chana growing states, and may prove beneficial for the chana sowing.
st

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 4559 4751 Prev day -0.72 1.39

as on Oct 12, 2012 % change WoW MoM 2.77 -0.09 5.04 4.76 YoY 30.08 39.49

Chana Spot - NCDEX (Delhi) Chana- NCDEX Oct '12 Futures

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX Nov contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Chana Oct Futures Unit Rs./qtl Support

valid for Oct 13, 2012 Resistance 4690-4740

Sowing progress and demand supply fundamentals

According to the Ministry of Agriculture 99.81 Lakh hectare area has been planted under Kharif pulses as on 21th September, 2012 compared to 108.28 lakh hectare (ha) same period last year. According to the first advance estimates of 2012-13 season, kharif pulses output is estimated lower by 14.6% at 5.26 million tonnes compared with 6.16 mn tn last year. Kharif pulses harvesting would commence from next month. According to the Fourth advance estimates of 2011-12 season, Pulses output is pegged at 17.21 mn tn in 2011-12 compared with 18.24 mn tn produced in the year 2010-11. While Chana output in 2011-12 is estimated at 7.58 million tones, Tur is estimated at 2.65 million tones, Urad is estimated at 1.83 million tones, Moong is estimated at 1.71 million tones. Assocham estimates, 21 mn tn of pulses demand in 2012-13 and is likely to reach at 21.42 mn tn in 2013-14 and 21.91 MT in 2014-15. (Source: Agriwatch)

4535-4580

Outlook
Chana futures are expected to gain further ahead of festive season demand and tight supplies. However, reports of higher sowing of Rabi pulses this season might pressurize the prices in the medium term. Also, higher imports from Australia may cap the sharp upside in the prices.

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| October 13, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar Futures on Friday settled higher by 0.71% as reports of lifting curbs on the sugar sector supported the upside. The Government has decided to make available a quantity of 40 lakh tons of non-levy quota, for the months of October and November 2012. Indian mills have signed deals to buy up to 450,000 tonnes of Brazilian raw sugar for delivery from October to December as a gap between domestic and overseas prices widens, making room for the first imports in more than two years, five dealers told Reuters. Millers based in western and southern India and global trading firms bought sugar at around $500/ton a CIF basis, as the price in the domestic market has jumped more than 23% to $680/ tn in the past three months. ICE raw sugar and Liffe white sugar extended further losses and settled 1.96% and 1.86% lower respectively on Friday taking cues from the September Monthly USDA report which showed increase in supplies. Also, higher output and lower imports expectations for the 2012-13 season from China.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar Spot- NCDEX (Kolkata) Sugar M- NCDEX Oct '12 Futures Rs/qtl Last 3694

as on Oct 12, 2012 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.90 -2.80 MoM -2.63 YoY 20.31

Rs/qtl

3400

0.71

2.10

-4.09

22.35

Source: Reuters

International Prices
Unit Sugar No 5- LiffeOct'12 Futures Sugar No 11-ICE Oct '12 Futures $/tonne $/tonne Last 557.8 445.56

as on Oct 12, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW -1.86 -1.96 -6.25 -6.40 MoM -0.02 1.67 YoY -21.99 #N/A

Domestic Production and Exports

The area under sugarcane is estimated at 52.88 lakh ha for 2012-13 crop season, up from 50.99 lakh ha on same period a year ago. According to the first advance estimates by agriculture ministry, Sugarcane output is pegged at 335.3 mn tn, down by 6.2% compared to 357.6 mn tn last year. Despite of higher acreage, the producers body has estimated next years sugar output lower at 24 mn tn, down by 2mn tn compared to the current year. Sugar production in India the worlds second-biggest producer touched 26 million tonne since October 1, 2011. Industry body ISMA has estimated 6 mn tn stocks for the new season beginning October 01, 2012 compared to 5.5 mn tn year ago. India may export 2.5-3 mn tn sugar in 2012-13. With the opening stocks of 6 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 30mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 22.523 mln tn for 2012-13. Thus, no curbs on exports are seen as of now.

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX Nov contract

Source: Telequote

Global Sugar Updates

Brazilian cane mills produced 3 mn tn of sugar in the first half of August thanks to dry weather. Unica in its latest report stated said that total sugar output since the start of the crushing season is still down 12 percent from the same period a year ago. The International Sugar Organization said it expected a global sugar surplus of 5.86 million tonnes in the season running from October 2012 to September 2013, up from the prior season's surplus of 5.19 million tonnes. The ISO said the stocks/consumption ratio could rise to around 40 percent in 2012/13, from 37.6 percent in 2011/12. (Source: Reuters)

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Oct NCDEX Futures Unit Rs./qtl

valid for Oct 13, 2012 Support 3300-3320 Resistance 3360-3372

Outlook
Sugar prices may trade sideways as any reports on decontrolisation on sugar sector along with festive demand might provide support to the upside. But weaker international markets as well as higher Quota for the month of October and November might p the sharp gains.

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| October 13, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Oilseeds
Soybean: Soybean Futures as well as spot underwent losses as
prospects of rise in output ahead of good harvest supported the downside. Also, demand for edible oil ahead of ongoing festive season supported the upside. The Futures settled 1.10% higher while the spot closed up by 0.84%. As per NCDEX, Special Margin of 20% (in cash) on the Long Side on Soya bean October 2012 expiry contract will be withdrawn with effect from beginning of day Monday, October 08, 2012. Special margin on soy meal has also been withdrawn w.e.f October 12 2012. CBOT Soybean settled lower on Friday as the demand supply September monthly USDA report made an upward revision in the output and yield of the soybean crop. Thus, CBOT soybean settled 1.68% lower. USDA estimates in its September Monthly demand and supply report pegged 2012/13 u.s. soybean crop at 2.860 bln bu (above trade 2.764), yield at 37.8 bu/ac (above trade 37.006), harvest at acres 75.7 mln (above trade 74.579). Ending stocks are seen down from 169 million bushels in 2011-12 to 115 million bushels in 201213 season. In Brazil planting has started 10 days earlier amid good rains. If rains continue in the coming weeks as forecast, Brazil could churn out 81 million tonnes of oilseed and replace the drought-stricken US as the world's top soybean producer, according to the USDA. Brazils grain Association expects the number 2 producers of soybean to produce record 81.3 mn tn in 2012-13. In the domestic markets, as on 20 September, 2012, Oilseeds have been sown in 174.39 lakh ha so far, compared with 178.16 lakh ha same period last year. Soybean area is higher at 106.9 lakh ha. According to first advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at at 126.2 lk tn for 2012-13. However, drop in area under groundnut, sunflower & castor seed may lead to lower output of these oilseeds in 2012-13 which is estimated 9.6% lower at 187.8 lakh tn. Refined Soy Oil: Ref soy oil settled lower taking cues from the international market, while MCX CPO also settled lower as Malaysian government said that it might stop duty free export of palm oil from Jan 2013. According Malaysian Palm Oil Board, the ending stocks for palm oil increased by 17.24% for September. Also, Malaysia has approved a plan to cut crude palm oil (CPO) export taxes from 23 percent per tonne Although, exports are high the overall stocks of Malaysian palm oil are higher on the back of seasonally higher yield. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products for Sept. 1-25 rose 8 percent to 1,170,720 tonnes from 1,084,343 tonnes shipped during Aug. 1-25. Indias edible oil imports should rise 5.4 percent to a record 10.31 million tonnes in 2012/13, with the entire increase met by palm oil. India imported 112,611 tn of refined palm oil in July, down 9.28 percent from June. Total vegetable oil imports in July were 870,328 tn, up from 783,315 tn in the previous month (Source: Sea of India). Rape/mustard Seed: Mustard futures settled up by 0.89% due to supply tightness amid lower output. Mustard output was lower in 2011-12. However, on the back of higher returns and improved rains, next years output is expected to be better. Outlook Edible oil complex is expected to trade sideways taking cues from the weak international Oilseed market and USDAs monthly demand supply USDA report for September. However due to good quantity new crop arrivals of soybean hitting the market, sharp upside might be capped for short term.
th

Market Highlights
Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX (Indore) Soybean- NCDEX Oct '12 Futures Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX(Indore) Ref Soy oil- NCDEX Oct'12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Rs/10 kgs Rs/10 kgs Last 3196 3210 674.9 666.9 Prev day -1.02 -1.40 0.42 -0.31

as on Oct 12, 2012 % Change WoW 5.58 4.39 3.51 5.37 MoM -28.82 -14.10 -15.43 -16.56
Source: Reuters

YoY 46.88 47.62 7.12 7.77

as on Oct 12, 2012 International Prices Soybean- CBOTNov'12 Futures Soybean Oil - CBOTOct '12 Futures Unit USc/ Bushel USc/lbs Last 1523 49.89 Prev day -1.68 -1.95 WoW -1.87 -1.71 MoM -11.12 -10.85
Source: Reuters

YoY 29.30 0.06

Crude Palm Oil

as on Oct 12, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW 1.13 -1.63 7.07 2.92

Unit
CPO-Bursa Malaysia Oct '12 Contract CPO-MCX- Oct '12 Futures

Last 2407 423

MoM -15.01 -20.61

YoY -14.34 -11.38

MYR/Tonne Rs/10 kg

Source: Reuters

RM Seed
Unit RM Seed SpotNCDEX (Jaipur) RM Seed- NCDEX Oct '12 Futures Rs/100 kgs Rs/100 kgs Last 4200 4079 Prev day 0.00 0.89

as on Oct 12, 2012 WoW 5.00 6.03 MoM 0.00 -3.62

Source: Reuters

YoY 42.37 33.74

Technical Chart Soybean

NCDEX Nov contract

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Oct NCDEX Futures Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Oct Futures CPO MCX Nov Futures Unit Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl Rs./qtl

valid for Oct 13, 2012 Support 635-641 3100-3155 4040-4085 417-423 Resistance 651-654 3230-3275 4180-4220 433-438

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| October 13, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Black Pepper
Pepper futures witnessed some profit booking yesterday after trading on a positive note for four consecutive sessions. Low supplies in the domestic markets as well as festive demand have supported prices. Farmers are also unwilling to sell their stocks at lower levels. However, expectations of improvement in weather conditions as well as better output in Indonesia have capped sharp gains. Traders are buying pepper directly from the farmers. Exports demand for Indian pepper in the international markets remains weak due to huge price parity. The Spot settled 0.59% higher while the Futures settled 0.17% lower on Friday. th According to the circular released on June 13 2012 the existing Special margin of 10% (cash) on the long side stands withdrawn on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Pepper from beginning of day Friday June 15, 2012. Pepper prices in the international market are being quoted at $8,500/tonne(C&F) while Indonesia Austa is quoted at $6,750/tonne (FOB). Vietnam was offering 550GL at $6,900/tonne. As per circular dt. 29/06/2012 issued by NCDEX, Hassan will be available as an additional delivery centre for all the yet to be launched contracts. (not applicable to the currently available contracts-till Dec 2012 expiry).

Market Highlights
Unit Pepper SpotNCDEX (Kochi) Pepper- NCDEX Oct '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 42563 43865 % Change Prev day 0.59 -0.17

as on Oct 12, 2012 WoW 0.99 1.56 MoM 2.35 2.95 YoY 22.99 28.84

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Black Pepper

NCDEX Nov contract

Exports
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper in April 2012 fell by 47% and stood at 1,200 tonnes as compared to 2,266 tonnes in April 2011. India imported 1,848 tonnes of pepper till March 2012 and has become the third country to import such large quantity after UAE and Singapore. (Source: Agriwatch) According to Vietnam Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) exports of black pepper in 2012 are forecasted at around 1,25,000 tonnes. Exports of Pepper from Vietnam during January till June 2012 is estimated around 73000 mt 73,000 mt, higher by 4.3% in volume and 31.7% in value compared to corresponding year last year. Exports of Pepper from Brazil during January till May 2012 are estimated around 13369 mt. (Source: Peppertradeboard). Pepper imports by U.S. the largest consumer of the spice declined 14.8% in the first 2 months of the year (2012) to 8810 tn as compared to 10344 tn in the same period previous year. Imports of Pepper in the month of February declined by 16.8% to 3999 tn as compared to 4811 tn in the month of January 2012. Exports from Indonesia posted significant decrease of 42% as compared to previous year. Exports stood at 36,500 tonnes as compared to 62,599 tonnes in the last year. During May 2012 Brazil exported 1,705 tonnes of pepper as against 1600 tn in May 2011.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Black Pepper NCDEX Oct Futures Unit Rs/qtl

valid for Oct 13, 2012 Support 43300-43600 Resistance 44050-44250

Production and Arrivals

The arrivals in the spot market were reported at 52 tonnes while offtakes were 55 tonnes on Friday. Global Pepper production in 2012 is expected to increase 7.2% to 3.20 lakh tonnes as compared to 2.98 lakh tonnes in 2011 with sharp rise of 24% in Indonesian pepper output and in Vietnam by 10%. According to latest report pepper output in Vietnam is estimated to be 1.35 lakh tonne as compared to 1.10 lakh tonne estimated early in the beginning of year (2012). Domestic consumption of Pepper in the world is expected to grow by 3.03% to 1.25 lakh tonnes while exports are likely to grow by 1.48% to 2.46 lakh tonnes in 2012. (Source: Pepper trade board) On the other hand production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to decline further by 5% to 43 thousand tonnes as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last year. Production is lowest in a decade.

Outlook
Pepper may trade on a sideways note with a positive bias today. Low supplies in the domestic markets as well as festive season demand are expected to support prices. However, reports that FMC has asked NCDEX to find out any irregularities in pepper trade may cap sharp upside.

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| October 13, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Jeera
Jeera prices corrected yesterday on account of profit booking but recovered in the end due to active buying by market participants. However, spot remained lower due to improved arrivals. Expectations of better export figures have supported the prices at lower levels. However, reports of higher carryover stocks as compared to last year restricted sharp gains. Good rains in Gujarat, thereby expectations of better sowing prospects ahead of the rabi sowing have also pressurized the prices in the spot market. The spot settled 0.32% lower while the November Futures settled 0.43% higher on Friday. According to markets sources about 75% exports target has already been achieved due to a supply crunch in the global markets. Around 10 lakh bags of Jeera are reported across India. Supply concerns from Syria and Turkey still exists. Expectations are that export orders may still be diverted to India from the international markets due to lack of supplies from Syria on back of the ongoing civil war. Production in Syria and Turkey is being reported around 17,000 tonnes and around 4,000-5,000 tonnes, lesser than expectations. Jeera prices of Indian origin are being offered in the international market at $2,725 tn (c&f) while Syria and Turkey are not offering. Carryover stocks of Jeera in the domestic market is expected to be around 7-8 lakh bags as compared to 4-5 lakh bags in the last year.

Market Highlights
Unit Jeera SpotNCDEX(Unjha) Jeera- NCDEX Oct'12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl Last 14575 14213 Prev day -0.32 -0.46

as on Oct 12, 2012 % Change WoW 0.26 2.38 MoM -1.16 1.19 YoY -1.19 -0.40

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Jeera

NCDEX Nov contract

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Unjha markets witnessed arrivals of 5,000 bags, while off-takes stood at 5,000 bags on Friday. Production of Jeera in 2011-12 is expected to be around 40 lakh bags as compared to 29 lakh bags in 2010-11 (each bag weighs 55 kgs). (Source: spot market traders). According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera in April 2012 stood at 2,500 tonnes as compared to 2,369 tonnes in April 2011, an increase of 6%.

Source: Telequote

Market Highlights
Prev day -0.74 -0.44

as on Oct 12, 2012 % Change

Unit Turmeric SpotNCDEX (N'zmbad) Turmeric- NCDEX Oct '12 Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

Last 5180 5474

WoW -2.07 1.60

MoM -8.51 -9.19

YoY -8.10 11.53

Outlook
Jeera futures are expected to continue to trade upwards today. Prices may find support at lower levels on expectations of higher export figures. However, good rains in Gujarat and higher carryover stocks may cap any sharp gains. In the medium term (October-November 2012), prices are likely to witness a bounce back as there are limited stocks with Syria and Turkey.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX Nov contract

Turmeric
Turmeric Futures corrected yesterday due to lack of buying by the spot market traders. Higher stocks with the stockists also pressurized the prices. However, a reduction in the special cash margin on the long side supported the prices at lower levels. Turmeric has been sown in 0.57 lakh hectares in A.P as on 03/10/2012. Sowing is also reported 30-35% lower during the sowing period. The Spot as well as the November Futures settled 0.74% and 1.37% lower on Friday. Special Cash Margin of 40% on the Long side shall be reduced to 20% (cash) on all the running contracts and yet to be launched contracts in Turmeric w.e.f. beginning of day Wednesday, September 26, 2012.

Source: Telequote

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi stood at 3,000 bags and 5000 bags respectively on Thursday. Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at historical high of 90 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 201011. Erode is expected to produce 55 lakh bags of turmeric a rise of 29% as compared to previous year. According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric in April 2012 increased by 1% at 7,300 tn as compared to 7,230 tn in April 2011.

Technical Outlook
Unit Jeera NCDEX Oct Futures Turmeric NCDEX Oct Futures Rs/qtl Rs/qtl

valid for Oct 13, 2012 Support 14200-14330 5360-5410 Resistance 14650-14900 5530-5590

Outlook
Turmeric prices are expected to trade downwards today. Stockists are not buying actively, which may pressurize prices. However, a reduction in the special cash margin, lower sowing figures and lower arrivals may support prices.

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Commodities Daily Report

Saturday| October 13, 2012

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas on Friday further witnessed a downward pressure and settled 0.87% lower taking cues from the weak international market. Also, harvest pressure weighed on the prices. ICE cotton Futures closed up by 0.92%. Cotton harvesting has commenced in US, in all 14% is harvested as compared to 10% a week ago, versus 15% same period a year ago. Cotton crop condition is 42% in Good/Excellent state as compared to 43% a week ago, and 29% same period a year ago.

Market Highlights
Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/Bale Last 931.5 15990

as on Oct 12, 2012 % Change Prev. day WoW -1.48 2.25 -0.87 1.14 MoM -7.68 1.14 YoY #N/A -12.14

NCDEX Kapas Futures MCX Cotton Futures

Source: Reuters

Domestic Production and Consumption

As on 28 September, 2012, Cotton is being planted on 114 lakh hectares, down, as compared to the last years 119.6 lakh hectares. However, the acreage so far is at par with its normal area of 111.8 lakh hectares. According to the First Advance Estimates, Cotton production for 2012-13 seasons is revised upward to 334 lakh bales compared with 352 lakh bales in 2011-12 season. Also, on account of cheaper cotton available in the global markets, imports have more than double from 5 lakh bales to 12 lakh bales. According to the latest CAB report as on 04 October 2012, exports have dipped sharply by 46% to 7 million bales in the 2012/13 marketing year that began on Oct. 1 compared to 12.7 million bales estimated for 201112 season. The ending stocks figure, has been revised further upward to 3.4 million bales as compared to 2.8 million bales estimated for August 2011-12 season
st

International Prices
ICE Cotton Cot look A Index Unit Usc/Lbs Last 71.36 81.35

as on Oct 12, 2012 % Change Prev day WoW 0.92 1.32 0.00 0.00 MoM -2.02 0.00 YoY -28.90 -29.20

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart - Kapas

NCDEX April contract

Global Cotton Updates

Global cotton prices are mainly influenced by China, US and India. USDA estimated US Cotton planting for the season 2012-13 at 12.64 mln acres as compared to 14.74 mln acres last season (2011-12). Ending stocks were at 4.8 mln bales (480 pounds/bales) with Production of 17.65 mln bales and exports of 12.1 mln bales were pegged for the season 2012-13. In its October monthly demand supply report on Thursday, the Agriculture Department (USDA) raised its cotton crop for 2012/13 cotton crop seson to 17.29 mln bales (prev 17.11) along with upward revision in end stocks 5.60 mln 480 pounds/bales (prev 5.30). Exports were down to 11.60 mln 480 pounds/bales (prev 11.80). China's 2012/13 cotton crop is estimated at 31.50 mln bales up from prev estimates of 31.00 mln bales given in September, imports 11.00 mln bales down from previous estimates of 12.00 million bales, consumption was pegged at 36.00 mln bales (down from prev 38.00 million bales), end stocks 36.61 mln bales (up from prev 35.51 mln bales)

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX Oct contract

Outlook
Kapas futures in intraday is expected to trade on a bearish note taking cues from the weaker international markets. Prices might take support at lower levels as farmers are not willing to sell their produce at lower levels. Besides, prices in spot market are nearing its MSP, which would restrict any major fall. In the international front, cotton harvesting has begun globally which might cap a sharp upside in medium term. Also, prices might have taken cues from the USDA monthly demand supply report which showed higher ending stocks for 2012-13 season.

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April Kapas MCX April Cotton MCX October Unit Rs/20 kgs Rs/20 kgs Rs/bale

valid for Oct 13, 2012 Support 913-922 910-920 15750-15880 Resistance 942-958 940-955 16100-16280

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