Multi-asset China Research

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Global Research
A once-in-a decade leadership transition is about to take place in China The new leaders will inherit a slowing economy and a lengthy reform agenda This has important implications for Chinas credit, rates and equity markets
Welcome to HSBCs latest Point, counterpoint, a roundtable discussion between our analysts about an important issue the markets are talking about. Today, we look at what the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China means for the countrys economy and markets. Power. The Party Congress meets every five years. While no date has been announced for this year, we expect it to be held in mid-October (like the previous meeting). This Party Congress is particularly significant. A once-in-a-decade leadership transition will take place and around two-thirds of important party and government positions will change hands, presenting challenges as well as opportunities. Process. With the economy slowing, the most pressing issue for the new leaders is to stabilise growth. However, changes may take time. Each Party Congress is followed over the course of the next five years by seven plenary sessions, or plenums. We think the third plenum, which is expected to deal with structural economic reforms, will be the most important. It is likely to take place in October 2013. Markets. Expectations are growing that the next major easing measures will now take place after the Party Congress. For stocks, a cyclical rebound is possible as growth stabilizes. We believe a bull market will require further major reforms, which could take at least a year. On the credit front, corporate bond issuance, both in the public market and private placements, is likely to remain strong. For rates, while the market waits for monetary easing, we think the Peoples Bank of China is doing what it can to help support the market through open market operations. The discussion centres on Steven Suns report Chinas National Party Congress, What it means for macro and markets, published on 20 September 2012.

Point, counterpoint
Chinas 18th National Congress: What it means for credit, rates and equities

28 September 2012
Steven Sun* Head of China Equity Strategy The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +852 2822 4298 stevensun@hsbc.com.hk

Zhiming Zhang Head of China Research The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited +852 2822 4523 zhimingzhang@hsbc.com.hk

Pin Ru Tan Asia-Pacific Rates Strategist Corporation Limited The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking +852 2822 4665 pinrutan@hsbc.com.hk

View HSBC Global Research at: http://www.research.hsbc.com *Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations Issuer of report: The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited

Disclaimer & Disclosures This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst certifications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it

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Point, counterpoint

The panel comprised Steven Sun, Head of China Equity Strategy, Zhiming Zhang, Head of China Research, and Pin Ru Tan, Asia-Pacific Rates Strategist. Tony Shaw, Head of Institutional FX and Rates Sales (Asia-Pacific), asked the questions. Tony Shaw Head of Institutional FX and Rates Sales (Asia-Pacific) Zhiming Zhang Head of China Research

Steven Sun Head of China Equity Strategy

Pin Ru Tan Asia-Pacific Rates Strategist

Tony Shaw: Zhiming Zhang:

How is the new leadership going to define itself over the next six months? The change in personnel will be followed by the new leaders consolidating power at the Beijing level and key posts at the provincial and municipality level. Theyll have their hands full for the next six months. Steven, can you explain to a general audience how the process works in practice? We've put together a report trying to provide investors with a basic guide to how Chinas Communist Party operates. Each Party Congress is followed by seven plenary sessions, or plenums, over the course of the next five years. The first focuses on the party leadership and the second, probably in February 2013, is responsible for the change in government leaders. The third plenum, which we think is the most important, is likely to take place in October 2013 and will deal with structural economic reforms. The report gives you a roadmap of how those events could unfold over the next five years. In the last 3-4 months forward-looking indicators have fallen. Pin Ru, how patient is the market going to be about the monetary or fiscal policy response are investors expecting measures to be delayed until after the leadership transition? As you can see from the rates market, people have run out of patience. Rates have moved up by 70 basis points over the past 2-3 months because people think that we're not going to get any monetary or fiscal stimulus until after the Party Congress. Also, from the interest rate curve you can see the rate cut expectations for the next 12 months. People thought that we would get as much as 100 basis points of rate cuts, but this expectation has come down to around 50 basis points. Feedback from our marketing trips suggests that investors expect more monetary and fiscal stimulus after the Party Congress. That's when confidence could return and investors will be more likely to rebuild their positions in the market. Steven, the Chinese equity markets have performed very poorly over the last four months. With the economy slowing, especially exports, what impact is the new leadership likely to have on the markets?

Tony Shaw: Steven Sun:

Tony Shaw:

Pin Ru Tan:

Tony Shaw:

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Steven Sun:

Hopefully, a smooth handover of power will remove one of the key market concerns in the short term. That said, we think that a sustainable rerating of the Chinese equity market will still require structural reforms. As we mentioned before, this will likely have to wait until the third plenary session late next year. This also ties in with what Zhiming said earlier about the new leadership team needing time to get up to speed and to consolidate power. In our report we looked at the impact the political cycle has on the economic cycle and stock market performance. Usually, in the second year after the new leadership takes over you will see credit growth and fixed asset investment activity picking up considerably. That's why we expect the market to perform better in the second half of next year than the first half.

Tony Shaw: Zhiming Zhang:

The market is hoping for a smooth handover and signs of reform going into 2013. Is it going to be that simple? We think there are expectations that the Party Congress itself will remove some of the uncertainty that's weighing on the market. A large number of the top jobs will change hands and different opinions among the leadership mean there will be a lot of checks and balances. China is at a critical phase of transition, politically, economically and socially. We believe change will be slow and progressive. Let's move on to macro policy. Pin Ru, some investors believe that additional monetary policy measures seem to be on hold until after the Party Congress. We've seen some incremental liquidity through money markets and open market operations over the past 2-3 months. Do you envisage that this will continue up until the Party Congress? After the Peoples Bank of China (PBoC) cut the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) in May and then cut interest rates in June and July, everyone started thinking that the pace of policy easing was increasing. However, since then we have been disappointed. The consensus thinking now is that we will have to wait until the Party Congress is over before we can see more measures, monetary or fiscal. So what the PBoC has been doing is to carry on with reverse repos as this is within its own remit and does not require prior approval from the State Council. This year we have seen a liquidity injection of about RMB500bn solely via reverse repos about RMB2.7trn were issued, of which about RMB2.2trn has matured. Two weeks ago we saw the introduction of 28-day reverse repos for the first time in 10 years. So all we can say is that the PBoC is doing what it can within its boundaries to help support the market. Steven, if these liquidity injections were to continue but we do not see a cut in RRR, what are the implications for share prices? Beijing has been relying on fiscal policy as it wants to keep inflation low remember that property prices have started to rise in some major cities. For instance, over RMB1trn worth of infrastructure projects were approved in early September, which hopefully will help the economy to stabilise. However, as we mentioned before, as far as market performance is concerned you may have to wait at least until the second half of next year. We think there is a disconnect between the relatively strong macro performance and the weak share prices. Even if the economy achieves a soft landing, as we expect, corporate profits have already landed hard. And if you look closer, you can see that the earnings quality has deteriorated in that companies cant generate enough free cash flow from operations to cover their capital expenditure. As a result, there is overcapacity, high inventory levels and a lack of pricing power. This will take time to change because Chinese companies have little experience of how to manage economic downturns. It's time for them to rethink their business expansion strategy. We don't think there is any one single policy to solve the issue of stock market performance. We need fundamental changes at the corporate level.

Tony Shaw:

Pin Ru Tan:

Tony Shaw: Steven Sun:

Tony Shaw: Steven Sun:

Whats the outlook for the Chinese equity market for the immediate and intermediate future? You can see that valuations have been coming down quite a lot. The A-share market has dropped over 60%, almost 70% from the peak, which means a lot of the bad news is already in the price. So that's why we expect the market to remain range-bound in the coming quarters. Zhiming, how is the credit market likely to perform if liquidity injections continue as a result of PBoC open market operations? Credit rates and spreads have been going up for the last 2-3 years basically because of a shortage of liquidity or rising funding costs. Having said that, despite the rate rises, for the remainder of this year and for next year corporate credit issuance, both in the public market and private placements, will most likely remain the key issue. With manufacturing activity remaining lacklustre due to weak business conditions, what's going to turn things around when we've got new people in charge but the same old problems? At the end of the day only the market can help to reset the supply and demand balance. In the A-share market essentially there has never been a case of a company getting delisted, unlike in other markets. We believe you need to instil that kind of market discipline to help reset the supply demand balance. The local government debt situation was a big story in the first half of 2012. Everyone seems to be comfortable with the overall level of central government sponsorship if the debt was to get out of hand. Pin Ru and Zhiming, can you update us on the municipal and local government bond markets.

Tony Shaw: Zhiming Zhang:

Tony Shaw:

Steven Sun:

Tony Shaw:

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Zhiming Zhang:

Municipal issuance mostly takes place in the richest coastal provinces and municipalities like Guangdong, Shanghai and Shenzhen. It's yet to spread to less developed areas, where it will probably be more difficult to issue bonds. In terms of local government issuance, the volume will likely continue to rise and may even get down to high quality county-level governments that's two notches below the provincial level. Given the fiscal situation at various levels of governments, the lower you go the more challenging it becomes. The trouble is that eventually all local governments that issue bonds need to be able to pay for them, otherwise it would become a fiscal issue for the central government. As Zhiming says, issuance has so far been limited to the best quality local governments. We think this will continue for now. We don't think that it's going to spread to other governments. For example, earlier this year HSBCs credit team in Asia wrote about a particular corporate bond that almost defaulted. It could be a similar story if other local governments were allowed to issue bonds. So for now we think the status quo will continue.

Pin Ru Tan:

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Disclosure appendix
Analyst Certification
The following analyst(s), economist(s), and/or strategist(s) who is(are) primarily responsible for this report, certifies(y) that the opinion(s) on the subject security(ies) or issuer(s) and/or any other views or forecasts expressed herein accurately reflect their personal view(s) and that no part of their compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or views contained in this research report: Steven Sun, Zhi Ming Zhang and Pin-ru Tan

Important disclosures
Stock ratings and basis for financial analysis

HSBC believes that investors utilise various disciplines and investment horizons when making investment decisions, which depend largely on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings, risk tolerance and other considerations. Given these differences, HSBC has two principal aims in its equity research: 1) to identify long-term investment opportunities based on particular themes or ideas that may affect the future earnings or cash flows of companies on a 12 month time horizon; and 2) from time to time to identify short-term investment opportunities that are derived from fundamental, quantitative, technical or event-driven techniques on a 0-3 month time horizon and which may differ from our long-term investment rating. HSBC has assigned ratings for its long-term investment opportunities as described below. This report addresses only the long-term investment opportunities of the companies referred to in the report. As and when HSBC publishes a short-term trading idea the stocks to which these relate are identified on the website at www.hsbcnet.com/research. Details of these short-term investment opportunities can be found under the Reports section of this website. HSBC believes an investor's decision to buy or sell a stock should depend on individual circumstances such as the investor's existing holdings and other considerations. Different securities firms use a variety of ratings terms as well as different rating systems to describe their recommendations. Investors should carefully read the definitions of the ratings used in each research report. In addition, because research reports contain more complete information concerning the analysts' views, investors should carefully read the entire research report and should not infer its contents from the rating. In any case, ratings should not be used or relied on in isolation as investment advice.

Rating definitions for long-term investment opportunities

Stock ratings

HSBC assigns ratings to its stocks in this sector on the following basis: For each stock we set a required rate of return calculated from the cost of equity for that stocks domestic or, as appropriate, regional market established by our strategy team. The price target for a stock represents the value the analyst expects the stock to reach over our performance horizon. The performance horizon is 12 months. For a stock to be classified as Overweight, the potential return, which equals the percentage difference between the current share price and the target price, including the forecast dividend yield when indicated, must exceed the required return by at least 5 percentage points over the next 12 months (or 10 percentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). For a stock to be classified as Underweight, the stock must be expected to underperform its required return by at least 5 percentage points over the next 12 months (or 10 percentage points for a stock classified as Volatile*). Stocks between these bands are classified as Neutral. Our ratings are re-calibrated against these bands at the time of any 'material change' (initiation of coverage, change of volatility status or change in price target). Notwithstanding this, and although ratings are subject to ongoing management review, expected returns will be permitted to move outside the bands as a result of normal share price fluctuations without necessarily triggering a rating change.

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*A stock will be classified as volatile if its historical volatility has exceeded 40%, if the stock has been listed for less than 12 months (unless it is in an industry or sector where volatility is low) or if the analyst expects significant volatility. However, stocks which we do not consider volatile may in fact also behave in such a way. Historical volatility is defined as the past month's average of the daily 365-day moving average volatilities. In order to avoid misleadingly frequent changes in rating, however, volatility has to move 2.5 percentage points past the 40% benchmark in either direction for a stock's status to change.

Rating distribution for long-term investment opportunities

As of 27 September 2012, the distribution of all ratings published is as follows: Overweight (Buy) 48% (27% of these provided with Investment Banking Services) Neutral (Hold) Underweight (Sell) 38% 14% (26% of these provided with Investment Banking Services) (22% of these provided with Investment Banking Services)

Analysts, economists, and strategists are paid in part by reference to the profitability of HSBC which includes investment banking revenues. For disclosures in respect of any company mentioned in this report, please see the most recently published report on that company available at www.hsbcnet.com/research. * HSBC Legal Entities are listed in the Disclaimer below.

Additional disclosures
1 2 3 This report is dated as at 28 September 2012. All market data included in this report are dated as at close 27 September 2012, unless otherwise indicated in the report. HSBC has procedures in place to identify and manage any potential conflicts of interest that arise in connection with its Research business. HSBC's analysts and its other staff who are involved in the preparation and dissemination of Research operate and have a management reporting line independent of HSBC's Investment Banking business. Information Barrier procedures are in place between the Investment Banking and Research businesses to ensure that any confidential and/or price sensitive information is handled in an appropriate manner.

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Disclaimer
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Asia Research Team

Asia Research Management
Head of Research, Asia Pacific Dilip Shahani 852 2822 4520

Equities Hong Kong

Equity Strategy Garry Evans Herald van der Linde Steven Sun Roger Xie Devendra Joshi Banks Todd Dunivant York Pun Eric Mak Conglomerates & Transportk Mark Webb Parash Jain Shishir Singh Stephen Wan Dandan Yu Rajani Khetan Construction & Engineering Anderson Chow Elaine Lam Carson Ng Walden Shing Zhe Wei Sim Consumer Erwan Rambourg Chris Zee Christopher Leung Lina Yan Catherine Chao Walden Shing Healthcare Nam Park Carolyn Poon Insurance James Garner Michael Chang Grace Zhou Metals & Mining Simon Francis Thomas Zhu Chris Chen Oil & Gas / Chemicals Thomas Hilboldt Dennis Yoo Kevin Lian SI Tingting Real Estate Derek Kwong Michelle Kwok Phillip Zhong Perveen Wong Stanley Cheung Technology Steven Pelayo Telecoms Tucker Grinnan Neale Anderson Chi Tsang Eric Chen Utilities Jenny Cosgrove Gloria Ho Summer Y Y Huang 852 2996 6916 852 2996 6575 852 2822 4298 852 2822 4297 852 2996 6592 852 2996 6599 852 2822 4396 852 2996 6585 852 2996 6574 852 2996 6717 852 2822 4292 852 2996 6566 852 2822 4202 852 3941 0830 852 2996 6669 852 2822 4398 852 2822 4397 852 2996 6751 852 2996 6602 852 2996 6572 852 2822 2912 852 2996 6531 852 2822 4344 852 2996 6570 852 2996 6751 852 2996 6591 852 2996 6586 852 2822 4321 852 2996 6555 852 2822 3053 852 2996 6620 852 2822 4325 852 2822 4277

Consumer Sean Monaghan Permada (Mada) Darmono Real Estate Pratik Burman Ray David Choo Telecoms Luis Hilado Rajesh Raman Transport and Infrastructure Valerie Law

65 6658 0610 65 6658 0613 65 6658 0611 65 6658 0612 65 6658 0607 65 6658 0608 65 6658 0616

Head of Equity Research, Asia Pacific David May 852 2996 6753

Deputy Head of Equity Research, Asia Pacific Herald van der Linde 852 2996 6575

Taiwan
Technology Jenny Lai Head of Research, Taiwan Yolanda Wang Tse-Yong Yao Joyce Chen Jerry Tsai Carrie Liu Banks Bruce Warden Non-tech Abel Lee 8862 6631 2860 8862 6631 2867 8862 6631 2861 8862 6631 2862 8862 6631 2863 8862 6631 2864 8862 6631 2868 8862 6631 2866

Global Management
CEO, Global Research Stuart Parkinson Equities Chris Georgs Economics Stephen King Fixed Income Steven Major Currency Strategy David Bloom 44 20 7991 6705 44 20 7991 6781 44 20 7991 6700 44 20 7991 5980 44 20 7991 5969

Climate Change Centre of Excellence Nick Robins 44 20 7991 6778

Korea
Industrials Brian Cho Head of Research, Korea Jinil Yoon Paul Choi Banks Kathy Park Sojung Park 822 3706 8750 822 3706 8763 822 3706 8758 822 3706 8755 822 3706 8756

Asia Research Marketing

Colin Davis Sunayana Daga Jenny Li Economics Qu Hongbin Frederic Neumann Leif Eskesen Paul Bloxham Donna Kwok Trinh Nguyen Ronald Man Luke Hartigan Sun Junwei Ma Xiaoping Su Sian Lim Izumi Devalier Quantitative Freddie Siu Tom Zhou Fixed Income Credit Dilip Shahani Zhi Ming Zhang Devendran Mahendran Philip Wickham Keith Chan Louisa Lam Yi Hu Crystal Zhao Linus Fung Alex Zhang Fixed Income Rates Andr de Silva, CFA Pin-ru Tan Grace Qiu Himanshu Malik FX Strategy Paul Mackel Perry Kojodjojo Dominic Bunning Climate Change Strategy Wai-shin Chan 852 2996 6635 852 2822 4393 852 2822 8245

852 2822 2025 852 2822 4556 65 6658 8962 61 2925 52635 852 2996 6621 852 2996 6975 852 2996 6743 612 9255 2635 86 10 5999 8234 86 10 5999 8232 65 6658 8963 852 2822 1647

Consumer, Brands and Retail Karen Choi 822 3706 8781 TMT Brian Sohn So-Yun Shin Howon Rim Ricky Seo Hongsik Jo Insurance Sinyoung Park 822 3706 8765 822 3706 8774 822 3706 8167 822 37068777 822 3706 8774 822 3706 8770

852 2996 6558 852 2996 6557

852 2822 2922 852 2996 6917 852 2822 4337 852 2822 4337

India
Jitendra Sriram Head of Research, India 91 22 2268 1271

852 2822 4520 852 2822 4523 852 2822 4521 65 6658 0618 852 2822 4522 852 2822 4527 852 2996 6539 852 2996 6514 852 2822 4687 852 2822 3232

852 2996 6629 852 2996 6918 852 2996 6535 852 2996 6571 852 2996 6590 852 2822 4391 852 2822 4686 852 2996 6716 852 2822 2590 852 2822 3165 852 2996 6619 852 2996 6941 852 2996 6976

Banks Sachin Sheth Tejas Mehta Consumer Amit Sachdeva Healthcare Girish Bakhru Industrials Arun K Singh Rahul Garg IT Services/Autos Yogesh Aggarwal Metals & Mining Jigar Mistry, CFA Oil & Gas / Chemicals Kumar Manish Puneet Gulati Real Estate Ashutosh Narkar Telecoms Rajiv Sharma

91 22 2268 1224 91 22 2268 1243

91 22 2268 1240

91 22 2268 1638

852 2822 2217 852 2822 4665 852 2822 6569 852 3941 7006

91 22 2268 1778 91 22 2268 1245 91 22 2268 1246 91 22 2268 1079 91 22 2268 1238 91 22 2268 1235 91 22 2268 1474 91 22 2268 1239

852 2996 6565 852 2996 6568 852 2822 1672

Singapore
Industrials Neel Sinha Head of Research, Singapore Tarun Bhatnagar Banks Kar Weng Loo Xiushi Cai Commodities Thilan A Wickramasinghe 65 6658 0606 65 6658 0614 65 6658 0621 65 6658 0617 65 6658 0609

852 2822 4870