INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ADVANCED RENEWABLE ENERGY RESEARCH Irfan Afzal Mirza et al. , Vol. 1, Issue. 4, pp.

226-231, 2012

Wind Energy in Pakistan Opportunities and Challenges

Irfan Afzal Mirza , Sana Ahmed , Prof Dr. M. Shahid Khalil
1 1 1 2

Renewable Resources Pvt. Ltd, Islamabad, Pakistan 2 University of Engineering & Technology, Taxila Corresponding Author E-mail address: irfanmirza@renewableresources.com.pk genera on capacity of Pakistan is approximately 15,903 MW with 65% fossil fuel based genera on, 33 % hydro and 2% nuclear power genera on (Hydrocarbon Institute of 1 Pakistan, 2009) . The large gap between demand and supply of electricity, increasing cost of imported fossil fuels and worsening air pollution demand an urgent search for energy sources that are cost-effective, reliable and environment-friendly. There has been a lot of recent interest worldwide in developing renewable energy sources. The technology for exploiting wind energy, in particular, has matured to the point that electricity produced from wind turbines now competes in cost with that produced from conventional sources, especially when the cost of environmental damage is considered. To ensure sustainability in the economic growth of the country and to avoid energy crisis in the future, the Government of Pakistan has initiated a comprehensive plan for the development of renewable energy resources in the country. In this regard, the Government has created an apex body, the Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB), to promote and develop renewable energy technologies with emphasis on wind energy. AEDB has been given the mandate to facilitate wind power projects through private sector with a 5% of the total power 2 generation by 2030 (Mirza, et al., 2006) . A. Wind Regime in Pakistan Pakistan has a 1046 Km long coastline with very favorable wind conditions. The flat coastal terrain makes it more suitable for power generation though wind. Surveys carried out in this coastal belt pointed towards a wind corridor stretching about 60 km along the coastline of the southern province of Sindh between the towns of Gharo to Ke Bandar and more than 170 km deep inland towards Hyderabad, as shown in Figure 1

AbstractPakistan is an energy deficit country and the

electricity mix of the country is heavily tilted towards imported oil that is approx. 35 percent; which makes its electricity sector highly vulnerable. Pakistan is blessed with abundance of wind resource. A satellite mapping conducted by USAID in collabora on with NREL suggests a gross poten al of 346,000 MW that can be generated with wind energy all across the country. Out of this estimated potential a single corridor along the GharoKeti Bandar area in the southern coastal region oers a poten al of 50,000 MW. However, Pakistan was a late entrant to the avenue of commercialscale wind development. Pakistans Wind Energy Programme was ini ated in 2004 at a time when no verifiable resource data, policy and regulatory framework were in place. Pakistans first ever Renewable Energy Policy was issued in December 2006, which along with several liberal incentives, introduced the unique concept of wind risk, whereby the investor is made immune to the risk of variability of wind speed. Currently various projects with a cumula ve capacity of 1200 MW are at various stages of development. Pakistans first ever commercialscale wind energy project has been completed by Zorlu Enerji of Turkey in 2009. Due to the current poli cal and nancial climate surrounding the country, wind projects have stalled as perceived risks have forced both the lenders and investors to adopt a very careful approach. To combat this and catalyze the sector, State Bank of Pakistan has announced a Refinancing Facility for projects up to 10 MW ll June 2012. Asian Development Bank also through its Renewable Energy Development Sector Investment Program (REDSIP) for Pakistan is back stopping country risk and payment risk of power purchaser for rst few projects of 50 MW. Index Terms Wind Power, Wind Risk, Challenges, Benchmark

I. INTRODUCTION
Energy Pakistan is on the threshold of economic recovery with the GDP growth rates estimated to exceed 7% per annum (State Bank of Pakistan, 2008). Pakistans energy resources primarily comprise of oil, natural gas, hydro power, nuclear and coal. The total existing power
Manuscript Received March 10, 2012; Revised March 28, 2012; Accepted March 30, 2012.

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INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ADVANCED RENEWABLE ENERGY RESEARCH Irfan Afzal Mirza et al. , Vol. 1, Issue. 4, pp. 226-231, 2012

developed for 50 m height for Pakistan by NREL substantiates the presence of the wind corridor between the towns of Gharo to Keti Bandar with a very good wind resource. This potential area has thus become the focal point for the development of wind energy in the near future. Such analysis is performer for Bangladesh [14]

Fig 1.Wind corridor in coastal areas of Pakistan

The wind flow in this natural wind corridor from Gharo to Keti Bandar is very unidirectional for most of the part of the year, blowing from the sea towards the land. This phenomenon is due to the natural geographical setting of the region, with sea in the south and desert area in the northern part of the province. Wind is abundant in the summer months with peak winds during May to July and lower winds in the winter months from November to January. B. Wind Mapping of the Coastal Belt of Pakistan In order to estimate and capitalize the wind energy potential in the costal areas of Pakistan, Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) initiated a wind mapping program where in 42 meteorological masts were installed in the coastal areas of the southern provinces, Sindh and Balochistan, of Pakistan, as shown in Figure 2 3 (Chaudhry, 2003) . These metrological masts, with anemometers present at 10 m and 30 m, were installed in 2002 and have been measuring per minute data since then. Anemometers were also installed at 50 m on some of the masts in 2005. Analysis of the data gathered through these masts confirmed the presence of a logical wind corridor in coastal belt of Sindh province with wind speeds averaging more than 7 m/s at a height of 80m. Further analysis of this wind regime showed a very promising exploitable wind energy potential of more than 4 50,000 MW (Khalil, et al., 2006) . The wind energy potential in the coastal areas of Pakistan analyzed from the wind data recorded by the meteorological masts of Pakistan Meteorological Department has been confirmed by the wind mapping of Pakistan done by the National Renewable Energy Laboratories (USA) under the USAID assistance program in 5 2007 (Renne, 2007) . The wind map, shown in Figure 3, 227

Fig. 2. Pakistan Meteorological Departments wind mapping sta ons in Sindh province, Pakistan.

Fig. 3. Wind Map of Pakistan developed by NREL in collaboration with USAID

II. CHALLENGES RELATED TO WIND SECTOR DEVELOPMENT

The slow uptake of wind power technology can be attributed to numerous factors, ranging from a lack of infrastructure to poor competition with conventional power generation. In order to pave the way forward for a sustainable energy future in Pakistan, the challenges which wind industry face must be systematically identified and addressed. This paper intends to discuss strengths and challenges in the development of wind power sector and

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ADVANCED RENEWABLE ENERGY RESEARCH Irfan Afzal Mirza et al. , Vol. 1, Issue. 4, pp. 226-231, 2012

to provide insight into how Pakistan can move forward towards a sustainable energy future. Below are discussed some of the major challenges which hinders the development of wind sector in Pakistan. A. Lack of Competition with Conventional Power Generation One of the principal reasons for the slow uptake of wind power technology is due to lack of competition with means of conventional power generation in Pakistan. Despite tax exemptions on import of technology and wind risk , whereby the Government takes all the risk associated with the wind speed data , wind power technology have high capital investment cost as compared to fossil fuel technologies. The lack of domestic manufacturing industry means the import of wind technology as well which drives the cost of wind power project up even further. Another factor is that, fossil fuels, such as oil are heavily subsidized as compared to wind power technology, which further hinders the development of wind power technology development in Pakistan. Also external costs such as health and environmental costs associated with air pollution through fossil fuel consumption are not factored into energy prices. At the same time social and environmental benefits of non polluting wind power technology are not accounted for either. These factors, taken together, result in wind power sector being unable to compete with conventional means of power generation. Therefore, the incentives and subsidies given for wind power sector development in Renewable Policy, 2006 are not enough to s mulate significant growth of wind power sector in Pakistan B. Technical Barriers Limited access to information and technology is also a big obstacle to the development of wind power sector in the country. There is shortage and unreliability with respect to wind resource assessment and data available. The development of wind power projects requires a detailed assessment of the wind regime of the area under consideration. The international practice is to analyze historical (10 to 20 years) wind data with at least one year of on-site data (Gardner, et al., 2002)6, recorded according to international standards, for the purpose of establishment of wind regime of that area which is required for estimating the power output from the wind farms. The analysis of long term wind data helps in predicting more reliable annual wind characteristics and wind speed averages resulting in small deviations in estimated energy production. This is an important factor for making wind power projects bankable. The long term wind data serves the purpose of risk mitigation from the 228

lenders point of view. Shorter period or less reliable wind data increases the risk factor on the estimated energy production which in turn increases Lenders risk perception of the project due to unreliable payment streams. Upon analysis of the wind mapping done by Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) through its masts installed in the coastal areas of Sindh and Balochistan, it was found that the wind data is not reliable due to nonconformity of equipments and sub standard installation arrangement with respect to international standard practices for collecting wind data. Reliability of the wind data recorded by PMD masts was not up to the standard where it could be considered as bankable wind data. It is due to the fact that International Electro Technical Commission (IEC) standard practices were not followed while erecting the met masts and installing sensors on it. Moreover, sensors are calibrated locally. The positioning of met masts was also not according to standard practices as masts were installed at places having buildings or other structures which may obstruct the free flowing wind streams, thus contributing to the level of uncertainty in measurement. Apart from issues related to the wind data from PMD masts, the second major barrier in the development of wind power projects was unavailability of any long term wind data. In this scenario, private investors were finding it very difficult to attract lenders for their projects and were not prepared to risk their own capital on the available short term unreliable wind data. There is also no manufacturing industry for the wind turbines, as a result, technology must be imported at a higher cost and there is lack of domestic knowledge about these turbines as well. Furthermore, maintenance facilities for this technology are inadequate, leading to low operational reliability and customer confidence. Research and Development activities in this sector are also very limited. The lack of an overall technically encouraging environment hinders development of wind power technology development in Pakistan. C. Financial Barriers Another important challenge is that there is lack of adequate financing for the development of wind power projects in Pakistan especially for small scale projects. Part of this difficulty is due to lack of awareness, high risk perception of investment and also uncertainty about the reliability of wind speed projections. These risks potentially discourage financers to invest in this sector

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ADVANCED RENEWABLE ENERGY RESEARCH Irfan Afzal Mirza et al. , Vol. 1, Issue. 4, pp. 226-231, 2012

D. Institutional Barriers Pakistan has a history of poor coordination and cooperation between governmental agencies. No governmental body was responsible for the planning and development of renewable energy policies in Pakistan prior to the founding of Alternative Energy Development Board (AEDB).Lack of coordination and cooperation among government agencies, institutions, ministries and stakeholders result in procedural delays in approvals and development of wind power projects. E. Lack of Capacity & Training A skilled work force for the successful development and development of wind power project is also required. At present, there is lack of both trained personnel and training facilities for the development, installation and maintenance of wind power projects. Skilled professionals are also required for research and development activities in this sector.
F. Lack of Social Awareness & Acceptance

A. Energy Subsidy Transfer One of the necessary step for the government is to consider transferring subsidies from fossil fuels to Renewable energy technologies like wind power in order to bridge the competitive gap between therm. Also cost burdens and gains of transferring subsidies are shared by both consumers and producers. B. Feed in Tariffs The implementation of feed-in tariffs (FITs) is another important policy tool that can be used to increase the deployment of wind power generation and improve competitiveness. A feed-in tariff guarantees payment to project developers at a set rate for electricity production over a given period of me (usually 15 to 20 years). Feedin tariffs have been successfully employed in numerous developed and developing countries. In Germany, for example, FITs have been shown to play an instrumental role in increasing renewable energy power generation 12 from 6.3% in 2000 to more than 15% in 2008 . C. Account of Social and Environmental Benefits Another approach that need to be positively addressed is to account for the health and environmental cost associated with wind power technology that reduce the cost of wind power technology when taken in comparison with negative external cost of GHGs of conventional fossil fuels. D. Addressing technical Barriers and Wind Data Reliability Improving access to wind data related information and technology is crucial to the success of wind power project development in Pakistan. A central information system should be established which is comprehensive, reliable and easily accessible To address the wind data reliability issue, a unique wind risk concept is introduced by the author on the variation in the wind speeds. In order to counter balance the variation risk of wind speed and to raise the confidence of project sponsors / investors. Benchmark Wind Speeds at different hub heights for different regions were developed. The development of Benchmark wind Speeds is considered as the most important feature of Wind Risk concept. The wind risk concept introduced for the development of wind power projects in Pakistan have been incorporated in the Policy for Development of Renewable Energy for power Genera on 2006 by the Government of Pakistan. It has been structured to be covered in the major contractual documents governing the implementation of wind power projects. The structure of energy payments on the basis of wind risk concept has been developed by 229

Finally, there are number of social challenges which wind power sector is facing. There is considerable lack of awareness regarding wind power sector and benefits that can be provided to communities through this technology. The primary social factors for the implementation of wind energy projects are entrepreneurs willing to invest. Understanding conditions that trigger entrepreneurs to invest in these projects, and understanding conditions that determine the chance of success for entrepreneurs to implement and exploit their projects, is vital for setting up effective policies to stimulate wind power generation. The production of wind power also generates environmental and social benefits, such as emission reductions, power portfolio diversity, and local employment opportunities relative to conventional power. Wind power is labour intensive relative to conventional fossil fuel power, and the employment in areas of chronic underemployment can be seen as a significant social benefit. All of these socio-economic benefits are valuable but the value of these positive attributes is not passed on to the investors and lenders.

III. THE PATH FORWARD; ADDRESSING CHALLENGES, CREATING OPPORTUNITIES

The pervious section detailed the major challenges facing by the wind power sector development in Pakistan. Moving forward, it is necessary to identify possible approaches to address these challenges for future policies. Strategies for improvement are provided below;

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ADVANCED RENEWABLE ENERGY RESEARCH Irfan Afzal Mirza et al. , Vol. 1, Issue. 4, pp. 226-231, 2012

authors, which also got accepted by AEDB and have incorporated in the Energy Purchase Agreement (EPA) that would guarantee full payments to the power producer for the energy produced and risk coverage in case of abnormal wind speed variations. With respect to technology access improvement, it is vital for the government to invest in R & D activities. In order to sustain the wind power sector, a manufacturing industry must be established, thereby reducing the dependency on foreign technology imports and knowledge. This will also reduce the capital cost on the development of wind power project. E. Financing for Renewable Energy Technology It is also vital that financing is made available to stimulate and encourage development of wind power projects on large scale s well as on small scale. Financing arrangements to support investment in wind sector must be developed at local, national and international level in order to encourage technology adoptions. Apart from government subsidies, innovative funding programme should developed for small scale wind power projects for rural communities. F. Institutional Cooperation It is important for public and private groups to cooperate by sharing information and coordinating efforts in order to increase efficiency and progress. Research and Development among various organizations should be promoted and information should be shared to effectively achieve common goals. G. Increase Capacity & Training It is necessary to recruit and train a skilled work force for capacity building to support wind sector development. Educational facilities should be established to promote the technology and development of skilled professional for this technology. H. Generating Social Awareness, Acceptance and Interest The general public must be educated on the availability and benefits of renewable energy technologies, particularly in remote and rural areas. As discussed earlier that the availability of an accessible information system will help to spread general awareness, acceptance and interest regarding this technology. The media can play a significant role in this respect as well.

IV. CONCLUSION
The development of wind power around the globe has been phenomenal in recent years. More and more countries are now leaping into wind energy development. The development of wind energy, like development of any new sector, is faced with several difficulties. Pakistan, with a huge energy demand increasing day by day, started its wind energy development program few years back with no local experience in this sector. Currently various projects with a cumula ve capacity of 1200 MW are at various stages of development. Pakistans first ever commercial scale wind energy project has been completed by Zorlu Enerji of Turkey in 2009. Due to the current poli cal and financial climate surrounding the country, wind projects have stalled as perceived risks have forced both the lenders and investors to adopt a very careful approach. To combat this and catalyze the sector, State Bank of Pakistan has announced a Renancing Facility for projects up to 10 MW ll June 2012. Asian Development Bank also through its Renewable Energy Development Sector Investment Program (REDSIP) for Pakistan is back stopping country risk and payment risk of power purchaser for first few projects of 50 MW. Benchmark Wind Speeds have been developed with a view to guarantee the revenue streams of the project at benchmark wind speeds for investors/project developers and lenders. The development of Benchmark wind speed values for different potential areas would lead to rapid development of wind energy in those areas as the risk of variability of wind would be on the energy purchaser. Wind farm developers can make their financial models considering the annual energy production (AEP) on benchmark wind speed values. The wind risk approach has minimized the financial risks involved in the project that has convinced the lenders to invest in wind power projects. The path towards a sustainable energy future in Pakistan is by no means simple, but a solution certainly exists. Although a number of approaches have been presented to encourage the growth of renewable energy in Pakistan, all of these solutions will undoubtedly require significant effort and dedication on behalf of the government. Pakistan must consider the long-term social, economic and environmental benefits of renewable energy power generation for its people. Investment in sustainable energy technology like wind power today will pave the road towards the secure energy future for tomorrow.

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