F rom: Tom Jensen, Director of Public Policy Polling

To: Interested Parties

Subject: M urphy continues to hold the lead in Connecticut Senate race
Date: O ctober 17th , 2012
A new Public Policy Polling survey in Connecticut finds Chris Murphy continuing to
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Connecticut polls over the last three months have found a modest but persistent lead for
Murphy. He led 48-42 in September and by this identical 48-44 margin in August.
Key findings from the survey include:
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requires a completely unified party base, but there are a fair number of the party faithful
ZKRMXVWDUHQWZLOOLQJWRFDVWDEDOORWIRU/LQGD0F0ahon. Murphy has also made up a
fair amount of ground with independents over the last month, going from a 51/38 deficit
with them to 46/41.
-Murphy has a solid advantage with female voters (48-42) and is tied with men (47-47).
+HVUXQQLQJDOPRVWHYHQDPRQg white voters, trailing McMahon just 47/45. She needs
to win them by a much wider margin than that to overcome the 60/29 advantage Murphy
has with non-white voters.
-Barack Obama leads just 53-LQ&RQQHFWLFXWPDNLQJLWRQHRIWKHVWDWHVZKHUHKHV
dropped the furthest from 2008. In spite of that Murphy is holding on and favored to be
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PPP interviewed 1,015 likely Connecticut voters on October 15th and 16th on behalf of
the League of Conservation Voters. The margin of error is +/-3.1%
Public Policy Polling

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604

Phone: 888 621-6988

Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com
Email: information@publicpolicypolling.com

Connecticut Survey Results

Q1

The candidates for President are Democrat

Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If
the election was today, who would you vote
for?

Q5

John McCain................................................... 38%

Barack Obama................................................ 57%

Barack Obama................................................ 53%

Mitt Romney.................................................... 44%

Q2

Someone else/Don't remember ...................... 5%

Q6

Woman ........................................................... 53%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Linda McMahon?

Man................................................................. 47%

Q7

Unfavorable .................................................... 48%

Republican...................................................... 26%

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion

of Chris Murphy?
Favorable........................................................ 39%

If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican,

press 2. If you are an independent or identify
with another party, press 3.
Democrat ........................................................ 38%

Not sure .......................................................... 7%

Q4

If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2.

Undecided....................................................... 4%

Favorable........................................................ 45%

Q3

Who did you vote for President in 2008?

Independent/Other .......................................... 36%

Q8

If you are white, press 1. If other, press 2.

Unfavorable .................................................... 50%

White .............................................................. 83%

Not sure .......................................................... 11%

Other............................................................... 17%

The candidates for Senate are Democrat Chris

Murphy and Republican Linda McMahon. If the
election was today, who would you vote for?

Q9

If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to

45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are
older than 65, press 4.

Chris Murphy .................................................. 48%

18 to 29........................................................... 12%

Linda McMahon .............................................. 44%

30 to 45........................................................... 22%

Undecided....................................................... 8%

46 to 65........................................................... 48%
Older than 65 .................................................. 18%

October 15-16, 2012

Survey of 1,015 likely voters

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

2008 Vote

2008 Vote
John Barack Som eone else/Don't
Base McCain Obam a
rem em ber
Obam a/Rom ney
Barack Obam a 53%

13%

81%

36%

Mitt Rom ney 44%

85%

16%

44%

Undecided

4%

2%

3%

21%

John Barack Som eone else/Don't

Base McCain Obam a
rem em ber
McMahon
Favorability
Favorable 45%

75%

25%

47%

Unfavorable 48%

20%

68%

34%

5%

7%

19%

Not sure

7%

2008 Vote

2008 Vote

John Barack Som eone else/Don't

Base McCain Obam a
rem em ber
Murphy Favorability

John Barack Som eone else/Don't

Base McCain Obam a
rem em ber
Murphy/McMahon

Favorable 39%

13%

57%

18%

Chris Murphy 48%

17%

70%

24%

Unfavorable 50%

79%

31%

51%

Linda McMahon 44%

78%

22%

46%

Not sure 11%

7%

12%

31%

Undecided

6%

8%

30%

October 15-16, 2012

survey of 1,015 likely voters

8%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Gender

Gender
Base Wom an
Obam a/Rom ney
Barack Obam a 53%

56%

49%

Mitt Rom ney 44%

41%

47%

4%

4%

Undecided

4%

Base Wom an

Man
McMahon
Favorability

Favorable 45%

43%

48%

Unfavorable 48%

49%

47%

8%

5%

Not sure

7%

Gender
Base Wom an

Man

Gender
Man

Murphy Favorability

Base Wom an

Man

Murphy/McMahon

Favorable 39%

39%

38%

Chris Murphy 48%

48%

47%

Unfavorable 50%

49%

52%

Linda McMahon 44%

42%

47%

Not sure 11%

12%

10%

Undecided

10%

6%

October 15-16, 2012

survey of 1,015 likely voters

8%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Party

Party
Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other

Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other

Obam a/Rom ney
Barack Obam a 53%

82%

15%

49%

Mitt Rom ney 44%

15%

82%

46%

Undecided

3%

4%

3%

5%

McMahon
Favorability
Favorable 45%

21%

77%

48%

Unfavorable 48%

73%

18%

43%

6%

5%

8%

Not sure

7%

Party

Party

Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other

Murphy Favorability

Base Dem ocrat Republican Independent/Other

Murphy/McMahon

Favorable 39%

65%

13%

30%

Chris Murphy 48%

75%

16%

41%

Unfavorable 50%

23%

82%

57%

Linda McMahon 44%

18%

79%

46%

Not sure 11%

13%

6%

13%

Undecided

7%

4%

13%

October 15-16, 2012

survey of 1,015 likely voters

8%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Race

Race

Base White Other

Base White Other

Obam a/Rom ney
Barack Obam a 53%

49%

71%

Mitt Rom ney 44%

47%

25%

3%

4%

Undecided

4%

McMahon
Favorability
Favorable 45%

47%

36%

Unfavorable 48%

47%

52%

6%

12%

Not sure

7%

Race

Race

Base White Other

Murphy Favorability

Base White Other

Murphy/McMahon

Favorable 39%

37%

46%

Chris Murphy 48%

45%

60%

Unfavorable 50%

52%

41%

Linda McMahon 44%

47%

29%

Not sure 11%

11%

13%

Undecided

8%

11%

October 15-16, 2012

survey of 1,015 likely voters

8%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988

Crosstabs

Age
Base

Age

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Obam a/Rom ney

Barack Obam a 53%

70%

48%

51%

53%

Mitt Rom ney 44%

30%

49%

44%

44%

3%

5%

3%

Undecided

4%

Base
McMahon
Favorability
Favorable 45%

44%

58%

42%

39%

Unfavorable 48%

49%

40%

51%

51%

7%

3%

7%

10%

Not sure

7%

Age
Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Age

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Murphy Favorability

Base

18 to 30 to 46 to Older
29
45
65 than 65

Murphy/McMahon

Favorable 39%

42%

29%

40%

44%

Chris Murphy 48%

58%

39%

49%

49%

Unfavorable 50%

47%

61%

49%

43%

Linda McMahon 44%

35%

54%

43%

40%

Not sure 11%

12%

9%

11%

13%

Undecided

7%

7%

8%

11%

October 15-16, 2012

survey of 1,015 likely voters

8%

3020 Highwoods Blvd.

Raleigh, NC 27604
information@publicpolicypolling.com / 888 621-6988