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Interested Parties Project New America October 19, 2012 New Statewide Poll in North Carolina Shows Obama with a Slim Lead

A statewide survey of 500 likely voters in North Carolina was conducted by Grove Insight October 17-18 using professional interviewers. Quotas were set to ensure calling into cell phone only households. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points at the 95% level of confidence. The data reported here closely mirrors key demographics, including party registration, race and gender. The sample consisted of 34% registered Republicans, 40% registered Democrats, and 26% who were unaffiliated with either party.

The President Has a Slight Lead in North Carolina

Barack Obama now holds a three-point lead in North Carolina, garnering 47% of the vote to Romneys 44%. Women (49% Obama, 43% Romney) give the President his lead, while the race is tied (46% to 46%) among men. The President also has a commanding lead among African American voters (92% to 7%).

80% 60% 40% 20%

Presidential Vote North Carolina

+3 47% 44%

1%
0%
Obama 41% Lean Obama 6% Romney 36% Lean Romney 8% Other

8%

Undecided

Obamas edge can be explained by his advantage on two key metrics: understanding middle class struggleswhere his lead over Romney is 16 percentage pointsand being trusted to make decisions that will help the country in the long term (+6 point Obama edge). Meanwhile, North Carolina voters believe Romney is more likely to raise taxes on the middle class by five points. He is also more likely to be perceived as out of touch by seven percentage points.
Who does it better describe Democrat Barack Obama or Republican Mitt Romney? [Names rotated]

Obama

Romney 30 38 38 42

Understands the struggles middle class families face Trust more to make a decision based on what is right for the country in the long term, not just for today More likely to raise taxes on the middle class
Out of touch

46 44 33 35

Contact: Ethan Axelrod, 303-953-3378, ethan@projectnewamerica.com @PNAmerica

Project New America, formerly Project New West, is a private company that provides cutting edge tools to understand and communicate with a rapidly changing America. PNA develops, conducts, aggregates, and disseminates research, messaging and on-going strategic guidance with the nations leading progressive stakeholders.