The Design of a Southern Ocean Observing System (SOOS)

C. P. Summerhayes and M. D. Sparrow Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR)

With additional support from

Oceanology International 2010

Outline
Why are coherent, sustained observations of the Southern Ocean needed? What aspects of the Southern Ocean would a monitoring system address, and who would use the information?

What is already in place, and what are the gaps?

Where are we in relation to planning and implementation?

The Role of Winds

There is a pressure and temperature gradient from tropics to poles; It creates high pressure at mid latitudes and low pressure near the poles; Here we see the Pressure anomaly pattern (isobars); Winds run along the contours; They create a Polar Vortex extending from surface to stratosphere; This strong barrier of winds keeps warm moist air away. There is local high pressure at the pole

High P

Weak high

Low P ASL

Icebergs move west along coast in polar easterlies

Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) develops because the continent is off-centre.

This local circulation makes West Antarctica respond differently from East Antarctica to climate change.

J Turner and others

Continent cools while peninsula warms

Change in mean Ann. Temp. C (1969-2000)

Thompson and Solomon 2002

West peninsula Warm air is brought in from the north by Amundsen Sea Low. Air warms at 0.53C/decade at Faraday/Vernadsky since 1950.

High P

(1.03C/decade in winter)
Correlates with decrease in sea ice.

Low P

The need to monitor sea ice

Increase 1%/decade

Ozone hole keeps SO winds 15% stronger; shields continent from warm winds and maintains sea ice cover

Ozone hole should disappear by 2070; IPCC models imply 33% decrease in sea Ice by 2100; Krill and higher predators affected;

Breeding success and ecological response

McClintock, 2008
Shifts in the penguin population on the western Antarctic Peninsula are attributed to changes in precipitation patterns and sea ice.
McClintock 2008

More snowfall and less sea ice

Responses of Southern Ocean Ecosystems to Change

As sea ice decreases, krill decrease
1000

100
Krill density (no.m-2)

10

As krill decrease, salps increase

1920s and 1930s post 1976 era

1000

0.1 0

100

200

300

400

Winter ice duration (days)

Density (no. m-2)

100

Change per decade

over twofold decrease up to twofold decrease less than 5% change up to twofold increase

! (

! ( ! (

! ( ! (

! ( ! ( ! ( ! (

! (

10

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

over twofold increase

Year

Atkinson et al, 2004, Nature

2002

Interannual variability
4 3 El Nio = warm = less ice W of Antarctic Peninsula =

Years of low krill availability

Reproductive output index

2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4

Antarctic fur seal Gentoo penguin Black-browed albatross

1985

1990

1995

2000

Implication: will have less production if Ocean warms and sea ice shrinks.

Year
Reid & Croxall, 2008

Circulation complexities beneath the sea ice

S Rintoul, 2001

Nutrients exported from the Southern Ocean support 75% of oceanic primary production north of 30S (Sarmiento et al.)

Global reach of the Southern Ocean

Lumpkin and Speer (2006)

Critical part of the global thermohaline circulation

Change in zonally-integrated ocean heat content since 1955 is largest in the southern oceans

Levitus et al., 2005

Boning et al, 2008

Important term in global heat budget, but Southern Ocean is still undersampled compared with rest of World Ocean

Warm ocean makes glaciers melt faster in Antarctica potential impacts on global sea level

NOCs Autosub3
Changes in thickness of the Antarctic ice sheet - Zwally et al., 2005

Face of the Pine Island Glacier, 2009: Antarcticas fastest-melting glacier.

Ocean temperature under the glacier from Autosub3; Pierre Dutrieux (BAS)

Ocean uptake of carbon dioxide

Sabine et al., 2004

Southern Ocean a key region for uptake of anthropogenic CO2 but is the carbon sink weakening (Le Qur etc)?

Acidification of the Southern Ocean

Ocean takes up 35% of human emissions; Southern Ocean takes up 40% of that

% saturation in aragonite; blue = undersaturated; dissolution may begin

%

Increasing acidity; Feely 2008

Aragonite pteropod - planktonic marine snail a major food in the Southern Ocean (N. Bednarsek, BAS)
Ocean Carbon-Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP-2) models (adapted from Orr et al., 2005)

Outline
Why are coherent, sustained observations of the Southern Ocean needed? What aspects of the Southern Ocean would a monitoring system address, and who would use the information?

What is already in place, and what are the gaps?

Where are we in relation to planning and implementation?

SOOS is being designed to address six key challenges

Role of Southern Ocean in global freshwater balance Stability of Southern Ocean overturning Stability of Antarctic ice sheet and future contribution to sea-level rise Future of Southern Ocean carbon uptake Future of Antarctic sea ice

Impacts of climate change on Antarctic ecosystems

Top-level challenges used to identify key variables to be measured.

and the platforms that can make them.

Potential users of a SOOS include

Research community Resource managers (including CCAMLR etc) Convention on Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources Policy makers (When is it time to act? What are the consequences of not acting?) IPCC Local planners (sea-level rise) Antarctic tourism Shipping operations Weather and climate forecasters Education Etc.

Outline
Why are coherent, sustained observations of the Southern Ocean needed? What aspects of the Southern Ocean would a monitoring system address, and who would use the information?

What is already in place, and what are the gaps?

Where are we in relation to planning and implementation?

Repeat hydrography
~5-10 yr interval with carbon
Many lines already signed up to; some are not.

Ship-of-opportunity lines
XBT/XCTD/ADCP/pCO2 etc Often several occupations per year.

(Figure in need of updating)

Moorings in strategic locations

Proposed mooring array to sample AABW export sites, to measure the lower limb of the MOC. Most locations signed up for, but how to sustain? Contours show inventory of CFC11 in the density layer corresponding to AABW

(Background from Orsi et al., 1999)

Southern Ocean Argo

Reasonable coverage around most of ACC; data density drops in subpolar regions.

Argo-under-ice
Array of sound sources deployed to track modified Argo floats under ice during IPY. Who will sustain these?

Also needed in Ross Sea who will do this?

Temperature plot and velocity field derived from profiling float data

(AWI; Fahrbach et al)

Photo Lars Boheme

Different spatio-temporal sampling available from CTD tagging of marine mammals. Species can be targeted to access specific icy regions. Invaluable data for both ecological and physical sciences.

Circulation, processes and change beneath ice shelves

Locations of current or planned drill holes through ice shelves to sample ocean water in ice self cavity. Many of these have firm commitments, but how to sustain?

Continuous Plankton Recorder Tows 1991-2008

The Survey covers >70 % of the Southern Ocean October to April

Approximately 40-50 tows each year >4,000 samples p.a. 5 n-mile resolution 135,000 nautical miles of data have been collected since 1991 This represents more than 27,000 samples, 200+ taxa +environmental data

Australia, Japan, NZ, Germany, UK, USA, Russia

(Hosie et al)

Above plus:Satellites (e.g. SeaWiFS, Cryosat) Current meter arrays

What observing system elements are already in place?

Tide gauge network

Sediment trap moorings Underway measurements (e.g. CO2 , Salinity) Sea ice thickness; snow cover; drift Etc.

Gaps
Ice-covered regions still poorly sampled, despite progress

Deep ocean below depth of Argo (2km)

Ocean in ice shelf cavities poorly observed Seabed is poorly observed (benthic communities etc) Non-physical measurements rarely routinely made (need other sensors for Argo etc)

etc

Outline
Why are coherent, sustained observations of the Southern Ocean needed? What aspects of the Southern Ocean would a monitoring system address, and who would use the information?

What is already in place, and what are the gaps?

Where are we in relation to planning and implementation?

SOOS Timeline - plan

August 2006: Initial scoping workshop, Hobart October 2007: Workshop in Bremen. Planning and writing tasks assigned July 2008: St. Petersburg progress review meeting September 2009: Venice progress review meeting; OceanObs SOOS CWP March 2010: Full draft SOOS plan on www for final open consultation June 2010: Launch at IPY Conference, Oslo July 2010: Commence implementation...

Implementation needs: Continued commitment from those already involved SOOS starting design is in place, and feasibility was demonstrated during IPY. But needs maintaining and buildingup, in financially difficult times The vast majority of the Southern Ocean belongs to no individual nation All nations with an interest/capacity are needed to contribute can POGO help with this? Quantified targets for the data density/spatial coverage required for each parameter Model analyses needed for this (BAS/NOCS?)

More nations and institutes to participate

Precise knowledge of what is needed

Implementation needs: Vision Design of SOOS will change as science and technology progresses

Visions for 5-10 years and 30 years already in SOOS plan, but will evolve
Need to use SOOS-derived science outputs to refine science drivers Need to drive technology developments to maximise SOOS effectiveness, not just adopt them as they happen e.g. ice-capable gliders, enhanced autonomous technology for roughest seas etc.

Impact Need to be able to demonstrate the value that SOOS brings, scientifically, economically and societally (how? who?)

Implementation needs: Management SOOS Implementation Panel, drawn from SCAR/SCOR and CLIVAR groups, and other key organisations

Will oversee links and synergies with e.g. GOOS, GCOS, CAML, WCRP SCAR, SCOR, POGO etc ,

Strategic data policy and management (SOOS portal, or other? SCAR SCADM, AAD?) Secretariat (AAD?) SOOS requires people and institutes to commit time and effort $OO$ requires long-term investment how to achieve?

Commitment of resource

More information:www.clivar.org/organization /southern/expertgroup/SOOS.htm

Ask not what SOOS can do for you.

Thank you for your attention