SIMULATION OPTIMIZATION

Chapter 11

OUTLINE
INTRODUCTION IN SEARCH OF THE OPTIMUM COMBINING DIRECT SEARCH TECHNIQUES WITH SIMULATION EVOLUNTIONARY ALGORITHMS STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL ISSUES FORMULATING AN EXAMPLE OPTIMIZATION PROBLEM REAL-WORLD SIMULATION OPTIMIZATION PROJECT

INTRODUCTION
Simulation models are built for many reasons To gain understanding of a system, To forecast the output of the system, To compare one system to another, or To find the optimal solution

INTRODUCTION
To find the optimal solution: The simulation is used to answer questions like What are the optimal setting for (1) to minimize (or Maximize) ..(2).? Optimization is the process of trying different combination of values for the variables that can be controlled to seek the combination of values that provides the most desirable output from simulation model.

INTRODUCTION
Consider the simulation model as a black box that imitates the actual system In the question before, the first blank, (1) represents the controllable inputs (often called decision variables or factors) and the second blank, (2) represents the performance measures of interest (output responses) [See Fig. 11.1]

Optimization Algorithm & Simulation Model

INTRODUCTION
The objective is to seek the optimal value for each decision variables that minimizes (or maximizes) the expected value of the performance measure (s) of interest Note: the expected value is estimated by averaging the models output over multiple replication or batch intervals.

INTRODUCTION
The formal structure of the simulation optimization problem: Objective function: Min or Max E[f(X(1),X(2),,X(n))] Subject to: Lower Bound(i) X(i) Upper Bound(i) Where, E[f(X(1),X(2),,X(n))] denotes the expected value of the objective function

INTRODUCTION
The search for the optimal solution can be Done manually, or

Automated with algorithms

INTRODUCTION
Interfacing optimization algorithms that can automatically generate solutions and evaluate them in simulation models is a worthwhile endeavor because
Saving the analyst time A logical method is used efficiently explore the realm of possible solutions, seeking the best The method often find several exemplary solutions for the analyst to consider

INTRODUCTION
In 1995, PROMODEL developed SimRunner based on the research of Bowden (1992) on the use of modern optimization algorithms for simulation and machine learning.

IN SEARCH OF THE OPTIMUM

The way to find the optimal solution involves 5 steps (Akbay 1996) Step 1: Identify all possible decision variables that affect the output of the system Step 2: Based on the possible values of each decision variables, identify all possible solutions

IN SEARCH OF THE OPTIMUM

Step 3:Evaluate each of these solutions accurately Step 4: Compare each solution fairly Step 5: Record the best answer

IN SEARCH OF THE OPTIMUM

If the output from the simulation model for all possible values of the decision variables is recorded and plotted, the resulting plot would be called the response surface (See Fig. 11.2) For well-posed problems, there are several optimization methods that can find the optimal solution,
Newton-Raphson method Linear Programming

IN SEARCH OF THE OPTIMUM

Unfortunately, most realistic problems are not well-posed and do not lend themselves to being solved by these optimization methods. The response surface produced by stochastic simulation models can be highly nonlinear, multimodal, and noisy. Heuristic techniques consistently provide good, or near optimal, solutions within the reasonable amount of search time. It may find the optimal solution but there is no guarantee that it always will do so.

COMBINING DIRECT SEARCH TECHNIQUES WITH SIMULATION

Direct Search techniques are a class of search techniques designed to seek optimal values for the decision variables for a system so as to minimise, or maximise, the output measure of interest from the system. Require no additional information about the function that generates the output Suited for optimization task when mathematical models do not exist.

COMBINING DIRECT SEARCH TECHNIQUES WITH SIMULATION

SimRunner has an optimization module and a module for determining the required sample size (replication) and a models warm-up period. The optimization module can optimize integer and real decision variables. Methods used i.e., Tabu search and evolutionary algorithms.

EVOLUNTIONARY ALGORITHMS (EAs)

EA s are a class of direct search techniques that are based on concepts from the theory of evolution. EA s manipulate a population of solutions to a problem in such a way that poor solution fade away and good solutions continually evolve in their search for the optimum

EVOLUNTIONARY ALGORITHMS
EA s differ from traditional nonlinear optimization techniques in many ways the most significant difference is that they search the response surface using a population of solutions as opposed to single solution.

EVOLUNTIONARY ALGORITHMS
The most popular EA s are genetic algorithms Four major steps are needed to apply an EA:
Step 1: Generate an initial population of solutions to the problem by distributing them throughout the solution space

EVOLUNTIONARY ALGORITHMS
Step 2: Accurately compute the fitness (response) of each solution Step 3: Based on the fitness of the solutions, select the best solutions and apply idealized-type genetic operators to produce a new generation of offspring solutions. Step 4: Return step 2 as long as the algorithm is locating improved solutions.

EVOLUNTIONARY ALGORITHMS
Discuss the illustration of an Evolutionary Algorithms Search of a Response Surface (See Fig. 11.3)

STRATEGIC AND TACTICAL ISSUES

The analyst must first ensure that the simulation model accurately mimic the real system Another issue very relevant to simulation is efficiency of the simulation study (measured in term of the amount of time necessary to conduct experiment with the simulation model.
Operational Efficiency Statistical Efficiency

General Optimization Procedure

Step 1: Identify the decision variables to affect the output of the simulation Step 2: For each decision variable, define its numeric data type (integer or real) and its lower bound and upper bound. Step 3: Construct the objective function to measure the utility of the solution tested by the EA Step 4: Select the size of the EAs population (number of solutions) and begin the search. Step 5: After the search concludes, the analyst select further evaluation some of the top solutions found by the algorithm.

FORMULATING AN EXAMPLE OPTIMIZATION PROBLEM

Problem description (See page 297)
Step 1: three decision variables, the number of parts to be stored in each buffer Q1,Q2,Q3 Step 2: Q1,Q2,Q3 are integer; 1 Q(i) 15 Step 3: the objective function:
Max[$10(Throughput)-$1000(Q1+Q2+Q3)]

Step 4: three profiles aggressive, moderate, and cautions corresponding to EA population sizes of small, medium, and large. Step 5: After the search concludes, the analyst should study the solutions found by the algorithm.

FORMULATING AN EXAMPLE OPTIMIZATION PROBLEM

Consider The allocation of buffer storage between workstations described in Section 11.6.1. Figure 11.5 illustrates the results from a SimRunner optimization of the buffer allocation problem using an aggressive optimization profile.

Buffer Allocation Problem

Buffer Allocation Problem

REAL-WORLD SIMULATION OPTIMIZATION PROJECT