Risk assessment in rural areas: A handbook for developing adaptation strategies to climate change in the Brazilian Amazon municipalities

presentation Since there is no doubt that the global climate is changing. The global average temperature increases constantly with various economic and environmental implications around the world. As much as Science can help in understanding the causes and predict the consequences of climate change, it is evident that any forecast is subject to uncertainties. The time is the manifestation of mood and thus the uncertainties related to climate translates into uncertainty with respect to time. Among the activities economic, rural production may be among the most climate-dependent and affected by variable time. Extreme weather events can disrupt agricultural production and forest ecosystems such as the Amazon, affect the flammability of vegetation causing loss environmental services and economic goods. In this context it is important to differentiate between phenomena seasonal weather, such as rain and dry seasons and extreme weather events as the years 2005/2010 (dry) and 2009 (floods). While there may be a high degree of adaptation activities rural economic to seasonal events, experiments showed that extreme events can harm socially and economically significant under spatially variable y Amazon. A frequent concern, therefore, is the vulnerability of the agricultural and forestry ahead forecast climate changes. Vulnerability can be defined as the result of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity to change. A producer of cassava and fisherman operating in the same region are subjected to the same degree of exposure to changes in rainfall patterns, but generally have different levels of sensitivity and adaptability to phenomenon. In fact, their vulnerability depends, besides the time factor, their livelihoods and their relationship with society and the market. The manual is directed primarily to government agencies and nongovernmental infrastructure and basic knowledge to survey and processing of

quantitative information. The information generated can be used for planning actions to adapt to climate change and to complement the knowledge base provided by Ecological Zoning Economic State. The manual is divided into three modules seconds Figure 1. Module I involves participatory mapping of the main productive activities in rural areas resulting in a digitized map of the spatial distribution of these activities. Module II documents the assessment process and risk analysis in productive activities prevalent in the city. Module III finally provides mapping integration between techniques and risk analysis in order to generate a map of vulnerability. All the steps documented in the manual have been tested and applied in the Municipality of Swindon (Par state) within the research activities of the Initiative and IPAM Amazon between 2008 and 2011. Purpose of this manual Presentation and documentation of basic methods of risk assessment for planning and development of adaptation strategies to climate change at the municipal level in Brazilian Amazon. Structure of Manual module I participatory mapping rural production -Interaction with stakeholders - Mapping module II Analyze vulnerability rural production - Field Interviews - Analyze data

module III spatial assessment vulnerability Mapping - Validation with actors