Analysis on Peace Process in Myanmar by BNIs Peace Monitoring team

Achieving Peace Through Ceasefires Analysis paper number (1) Its been over year since the Myanmar government initiated peace talks with the various ethnic armed groups. The move was spearheaded by President Thein Seins new quasi-civilian government on Aug. 18, 2012. From the beginning, they stated that it will take three-years to achieve peace in Myanmar. But after a year has come and gone, the government hasnt been able to move past preliminary ceasefire dialogues with most of the nations ethnic armed groups. If we analyze their peace process strategy; we find they are using a two- step process. The first step is: ethnic armed groups who want to engage in peace talks with the government must establish contact with the regional or state government before preliminary talks can commence. Secondly, only after the preliminary talks have concluded, can they meet with the government's peace team for further discussions. Initially, most of the ethnic armed groups refused to meet with the government until they agreed to meet with all the armed groups collectively, and revise the 2008 constitution. Most of the armed groups want a return to federalism, which was promised under the Panglong agreement and implemented by Aung Sans cabinet. But, unfortunately this never reached fruition, after he was assassinated in July, 1947. Currently, most of the ethnic armed groups - with the exception of the Kachin Independence Organisation (KIO) have entered into ceasefires with the central government. There were many contributing factors that pushed the various players to the table for peace talks. The government faced pressure from the international community to end the ethnic armed struggle before international sanctions can be lifted. Both internal and exiled political opposition groups were also pushing the government to find a solution that would end the conflicts. Most of the ethnic armed groups have always been motivated towards working for peace in their respective territories. Nearly all of the armed groups have entered into official peace negotiation talks, leading to the signing of ceasefires. The United Wa State Army (UWSA) and National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA) were the first to sign ceasefires with the central government.

Analysis on Peace Process in Myanmar by BNIs Peace Monitoring team

The ceasefire agreements stipulated that the ethnic armed groups would be allowed to open liaison offices, and move freely in their respective territories. But they failed to outline further steps, which implement real reforms. Most of the areas inhabited by ethnic groups are still heavily militarized; as a result many of the refugees, living in neighboring countries, dont feel safe to return. In Shan and Chin state, the Shan State Army (SSA) and Chin National Front (CNF) have already opened liaison offices. Although, a positive first step, its still not a guarantee for lasting peace in the region. Government armed forces have been fortifying their positions, both in Shan and Karen states, and threatened, and even attacked the SSA within days of signing ceasefires. In both areas, the military have been seizing territories previously controlled by ethnic armed groups. Even though ceasefires can be politically advantageous for both sides, it can be argued the government has reaped more benefits than for the ethnic armed groups. Most of the peace agreements have been based on four- points: signing ceasefires, the opening of liaison offices, business opportunities for natural resource extraction and the ability for both sides to travel freely. Ironically, these are the same points implemented by former regimes; the State Law and Order Restoration Council (SLORC) and State Peace and Development Council (SPDC). When we look at what has actually been accomplished, a year after peace negotiations began; its obvious the government have already fallen short of several of their promises. Although the SSA and CNF have opened liaison offices, freedom of movement is still severely restricted. Furthermore, the government is hesitant to engage in political dialogue with ethnic armed groups unless its relevant to business or development projects, offering commercial gain. Gold exploration, opening commercial banks and establishing car licenses are seen by the government as important as achieving peace. Unfortunately, the government doesnt want to give up any ground. The direction of all the peace negotiations has followed in line with the new constitution - pushed through while the nation was still reeling from the environmental destruction caused by Cyclone Nargis, in 2008. The constitution does not guarantee any rights for ethnic minorities. The government's peace negotiation team position is: "if you want to make constitutional amendment, first surrender and join parliament. But its nearly impossible to amend the constitution when twenty-five seats are reserved for the military and it takes seventy-six seats to amend it. The way the peace process is going, its still unclear if it will lead towards lasting peace with the ethnic armed groups. However, what is clear is the government eagerness to sign ceasefires that pave the way for profitable business ventures in the resource rich areas where most of the ethnic minorities live. 2

Analysis on Peace Process in Myanmar by BNIs Peace Monitoring team

While most of the ethnic armed groups have signed ceasefire agreement with the government there are still daily clashes between the Kachin Independence Army (KIA) and government troops - since they broke a seventeen-year ceasefire with Kachin Independence Organisation, on June 9, 2011. Its hard to trust the governments sincerity when they are discussing peace, and, at the same time, their military is killing and raping Kachin civilians. Thousands of Kachin have been forced to abandon their land. Most are living in internally displaced person (IDP) camps in KIOcontrolled territories. The fighting has continued, despite a presidential order by Thein Sein, ordering the military to stop all offensives against the KIA. Myanmar is a multicultural country, with many different ethnic groups. The government has a responsibility to provide security and freedom for all of its citizens. The democratic opposition groups in exile and inside, the ethnic armed groups and other aligned armed groups have taken the first steps towards peace during negotiations with the central government's peacemaking team. However, if their efforts are to lead towards meanifull change they must provide constructive analysis to ensure they are heading down the right road for lasting peace, and not only for business ventures. All of the ethnic armed groups must work together to establish a common ground amongst themselves, which they can bring to the table during future union level peace talks with government officials. Its their responsibility to ensure preliminary talks lead towards genuine political dialogue in the country. Its impossible to establish peace in the country, through ceasefire agreements if all the participants, including the government, dont share a common goal of working towards a nation based on trust, unity, solidarity, transparency and accountability. To achieve this, they must be able to learn from their mistakes in order to strengthen their weaknesses. During future peace negotiations, participants must be flexible so discussion can progress into tangible results. In order to establish genuine peace in the country, all of the various parties should work towards ceasefires, and stop the expansion of the military expansion in their respective territories; allowing peace negotiations to move forward. Participants need to share a desire to establishing a mutual respect and work towards political rights for everyone. In order to ensure the peace negotiations follow in-line with the peoples wishes, they must publish detailed reports in a timely manner. During peace talks, the government must stop using the state-run media as a propaganda tool against the ethnic armed groups. All parties, involved in peace negotiations process, must implement the following policies to ensure its success in building a unified and prosperous nation for all its citizens. 3

Analysis on Peace Process in Myanmar by BNIs Peace Monitoring team

(1) Immediately stop all military offensives in ethnic areas, and remove military forces from the conflict zones. (2) Unconditionally release all the remaining political prisoners (including ethnic politicians) from prison. (3) Allow ethnic armed groups the freedom to engage with their respective ethnic communities. (4) Through the preliminary talks, the central government must create a space which inclusivity and transparency. (5) All results of peace negotiations must be published. allows

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References: 1. Union of Republic of Myanmar, Statement 1/2011 2. www.bbc.co.uk/burmese 3. Independence Mon News Agency 4. News Light of Myanmar, issued on 4/10/2011 5. www.phophtaw.org/burmese 6. http://burmese.voanews.com 7. President Thein Sein's speech on March 30, 2011 8. www.irrawaddy.org 9. www.bnionline.net 10. www.rfa.org/burmese